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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    That is on me. He is a pretty good defensive outfielder. That may be the reason he hasn’t played there much in the minors. It is hard to find good defensive outfielders. He did play there 39 games for Creighton and 11 games in summer. Here is an excerpt scouting report heading into the 2022 draft
  2. jorgenswest
    As the roster stands now here is a win projection from Fangraphs. They have the Twins at 82-80. A trade of Lopez or Ryan would certainly change that projection.
  3. jorgenswest
    Every game next year matters to me so there is some reservation not going with the one year plan at first base. I can see a 2027 with Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez. I think that happens with Keaschall at first and Martin at second. I don’t want to delay that transition. In defense of both Clemens and Julien I think they have two things going for them that give some hope and at least worthwhile of a shot before the Keaschall transition takes place. Player generally improve in their first 1500 plate appearances facing major league pitching. Neither is close and should still be growing with more exposure to major league pitching. Of course that growth is a roller coaster of adjustments. I also trust xwOBA to be a better predictor for the future than OPS. Both Clemens and Julien were just above the average xwOBA for a first basemen last year. Maybe one of them steps up and keeps the job. Another option is Roden who is one of their few outfielders who can also play first base. He really hit well in AAA and if there is opportunity at first base he also has a chance to take the position and keep it. Short of trading for a Contreras or signing a guy like Naylor I would rather go with one of them as opposed to the one year vet in his thirties.
  4. jorgenswest
    I agree on the three but I think they point to different intentions. Firstbase I think this is more a commitment to look for upside from with in as opposed to a short term attempt at a fix. I suppose does show their intention not to make a big commitment. For some reason we are fixated with Clemens as the only option at 1B. There is some reason for optimism that he can produce at a median level for first baseman next year give his xwOBA and statcast contact numbers. He may be the first to get a shot but unlike a one year free agent they won’t be as motivated to stick with him. Roden has played first baseman and has very strong minor league numbers. Julien contact numbers were much closer to 2023 than 2024. Maybe new voices in the clubhouse will clear his head so he can go up to the plate more freely. I can see both Jenkins and Rodriguez ready soon this year. If that happens they can move Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B with Clemens as a really good fit behind them. Since Sano in 2021 they have rotated through one year fixes at 1B. Perhaps they intend to stop that revolving door and find a longer term solution among the players they control. Bullpen Could this be a commitment to the arms of the many starters early in their careers? Abel, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa and Matthews do not need more time pitching against AAA batters. Prielipp probably doesn’t either. Right now there appears to be space for two of them in the rotation. Give Raya a chance to earn a spot in the spring. The intention is next year at this time the bullpen isn’t a need. Ryan and Lopez Moving either will certainly telegraph their intentions. Lopez would be their intention to reduce the payroll over winning and helping to develop their young arms. His return will not be elite. He doesn’t have enough excess value. They would need to wait until the free agents find homes to get the better return. Ryan would show their intention to lose more games this season in the hopes of having a better chance at acquiring a future impact prospect. A player that will transition to the majors this year or next and then put in the work to be all star caliber as they get to their arbitration years. These are all key decisions but they telegraph very different things.
  5. jorgenswest
    Jenkins and Rodriguez are on the way. They should arrive this year and should have an opportunity to win a job this spring. I don’t want a one year veteran delaying that arrival. Looking down the road for their arrival I wonder if there is any plan to play Martin at 2B and Keaschall at 1B. Clemens would be a good utility fit there with his left handed bat behind them. Culpepper’s eventual arrival could also push Keaschall to 1B. I am all for acquiring an anchor bat in the middle of the lineup that will be the first baseman for multiple years. They aren’t likely to find that among the DFA’s. Short of acquiring that anchor bat I would go with the current roster. In the meantime Roden should be joining the battle for the 1B job. If he hits anywhere near his minor league numbers we will not be talking about first baseman next year. We won’t be talking about 1B next year either if Keaschall lands there and continues to hit.
  6. jorgenswest
    Alan Roden was a much better hitter than any of these three in the minors. He has played all three spots in the outfield and first base. He is the same age as Rumsfeld. He wasn’t very successful after 40 plate appearances with the Twins. Maybe we should move on. The best fits for a rule 5 pick up is a utility player with speed that can play shortstop or a catcher to compete with Jackson. If there is a first basemen out there with a minor league wRC+ in the Roden range (151, 138, 150 the last three years) they should give him a look.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am not communicating well. Can the Twins participate in the rule 5 and select a player given that they have a full 40 man roster today? I am well aware that they can still move players. If they open a space before the draft by any means can they participate. That is what we wonder. @rdehring had heard that they would not be able to select a player and wondered if anyone knew for sure. I searched and it is not clear. I think they can still open a space but the search results seemed to conflict.
  8. jorgenswest
    As for his catching ability I think this is more than upbeat. The skill to be a better than average catcher appears real based on the data. If there was an article about Gasper being an average catcher it had to be hope. I don’t think there is any data to support that. I think the data on Gasper was his OBP in AAA and the hope he would hit enough to be a 1B/DH/2B. I hoped he would be the next Brian Harper but it was just hope.
  9. jorgenswest
    I wondered if the 40 man is set now for the rule 5 making the Twins ineligible. It seems possible that they might trade Larnach or Julien for an A-Ball prospect or even two on the 40 for one and free up a space on the 40. If that happens before the rule 5 draft would they be eligible? @rdehring responded to me helpfully. Does your response mean that the 40 man isn’t set? Otherwise I am not sure what you intended.
  10. jorgenswest
    Do they still have time to remove someone? I know they can’t remove anyone they just added to protect them from rule 5. Couldn’t they trade or DFA someone else prior to the draft?
  11. jorgenswest
    I wonder if MJ Melendez will be non tendered. He was baseball’s worst framer in his rookie season as a catcher but he was respectable throwing out runners and did it well in the minors. Blocking pitches was an issue also. If he was so focused on the framing aspect the blocking and throwing might take a hit also. The Twins need a catcher. Campusano and Melendez were once top catching prospects. Maybe a change of scenery and opportunity will help realize those talents. McGuire was mentioned also. His glove is very solid.
  12. jorgenswest
    Lopez and Ryan are going to help with the development of the rest of the staff. Their innings are going to matter. They are going to keep the burden off of the pen. Their leadership in the pitching room talking about how to pitch to hitters in an upcoming series is going to be valuable. Catchers are valuable to that room also and they are already losing Vazquez. Trading either will impact the development of our starters and put a burden on a bullpen.
  13. jorgenswest
    MLBTR created a list of non-tenders candidates including Larnach and Topa. Is there a deal to be made with Larnach for one of these players that might not have a fit on their current team? Can the Twins move him for a catcher or someone for the bullpen?
  14. jorgenswest
    Some guys respond positively to different leadership. Maybe we will see more of the 2023 version of Julien as well as Lewis. Maybe we will see better from Wallner. We didn’t get their best last year. Last year’s leadership also included Correa who just seemed to bring the team down with him when he struggled. Julien was a different player in September with his .788 OPS. The team looked like it was having more fun playing the game in September. I certainly want to have an open mind to start the season about any of these players who have shown ability.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they overvalue. Prior to right sizing the budget they sent prospects for Mahle and Lopez. At some point in 2023 the budget was right sized. The decisions they made since those 2022 trades didn’t overvalue prospects either. You are not overvaluing prospects when you are adding decline phase veterans on team friendly one year deals. I think all teams overhype prospects. It is in their interest to do so. Publications putting out rankings instead of tiers add to the hype. I think value is shown in playing time and until August 1 of last year the Twins were not giving very much time to prearb players. @Riverbrian showed us that deficit with every series. Teams valuing prospects are going to play them. I look forward to seeing that next year.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Julien is the back up to Clemens. He may start at first base. He may be the starter at second if Keaschall is injured. If he can win the first base job I can see Clemens on the bench with his ability to play 5 positions pretty well. I think he will either win a starting job in spring training or be moved for little or no return. There is at least some reason for optimism. In the last quarter of the season when he was getting consistent playing time he hit 275/367/377. His exit velocity for the full season was back in his 2023 range as were his barrels and hard hit rates. In the spring he needs to show the bat he had in the last quarter of the season and he should have a job on this team. note: His consistent playing time probably started game 126 and his triple slash from that game was 278/380/344.
  17. jorgenswest
    Yes and 1 according to roster resource. My guess is the Rays needed the 40 man spot and would have DFA’d him if they did not find a trade partner.
  18. jorgenswest
    Last year we added Travis Adams and we added a rule 5. We eventually let go of Ronny Henriquez when we needed a roster spots and neither Adams or the rule 5 could be safely removed. It doesn’t seem likely that Adams would have survived the year on another roster. We made a decision on Henriquez after 31 innings. If I look back I was probably OK with letting him go given the options at the time but I was not in favor of the rule 5 decision or the Adams decision. Those 40 man spots are valuable.
  19. jorgenswest
    Trevor Larnach for Luis Campusano? It is possible neither will be then tendered and become free agents. The Padres have two right handed starting corner outfielders and Larnach would fit there better than here. The Padres did not give Campusano any time at catcher in his intermittent major league call ups last year. He played catcher and crushed the ball in AAA. The Twins need help at catcher.
  20. jorgenswest
    I prefer Outman to a free agent because the Twins will be willing to let his clock run out when Jenkins or Rodriguez are ready to start their major league clocks. If they sign a free agent to a team friendly one year deal that player will be with theM at least until the deadline. I think June 1 is about right. The only thing that will keep him beyond that is his performance or an injured Jenkins and Rodriguez. It could be earlier if one of those two takes charge in the spring.
  21. jorgenswest
    Did you read the rest of what I wrote? I specifically compared the performance of Wells to Culpepper. Their ability to miss bats and strike out batters in AA is very different. It really seems odd that you left that out. Tyler Wells wasn’t a stash. He was ready to pitch in a major league bullpen and was successful as a rookie and had an ERA below league average. If the Twins believe that Culpepper is ready and capable of that performance in spite of his inability to miss bats in AA they should put him on the 40.
  22. jorgenswest
    They have more influence than I do. I appreciate their care and fight for this team.
  23. jorgenswest
    I look at Clemens statcast numbers and I see hope from his exit velocity and launch angle. I also have hope that given his salary they will not be waiting until August to go another direction if this year’s wOBA doesn’t approach last year’s xWOBA. If it does then they have a major league player at 1B. if it doesn’t then they options they have other options which could include Roden, Julien, Mendez, Sabato and even Keaschall. If they don’t spend resources on a free agent 1B when Culpepper shows he is ready he can take the spot of anyone in the infield who is not performing. He will be the shortstop and Keaschall can move to 1B and Lee can move to 2B or 3B. My first choice would have been acquire someone at Naylor’s level or above. Short of that I would have gone with the status quo over another one year stop gap at 1B.
  24. jorgenswest
    I do appreciate you Mike. You nailed it. I will think they can compete until they don’t. Adding Rutschman would help. Fighting every day to compete is a big part of who I am. I just don’t get how it isn’t part of the Pohlad’s nature. Maybe I can sell it this way. Rutschman could easily be a buy low. If he hits like he did his first two years his trade value will go up. If he isn’t a buy low then I am with you and the Twins should not trade assets.
  25. jorgenswest
    I dint think he is declining in skill. His contact numbers are all in line with his rookie season, he had the best exit average exit velocity last year. He also had a low BABIP relative to his career.
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