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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Bad game made worse by constant chatter about ABS by the radio team. Let’s talk about baseball. ABS is not baseball strategy. It shouldn’t part of the game. If it is a strike. Call it a strike. If it is a ball. Call it a ball. Let the players play the game. Play ball.
  2. jorgenswest
    Really nice work from the pen in difficult conditions. Defense held up in difficult conditions also. Those two innings from Orze were critical. I appreciate the players like Gray who battle so hard to make the major leagues. It has to take a toll moving from organization to organization and minor league town to minor league town to fight to stay in the game you love. It is frustrating when the Twins acquire these players (as all teams do) and the first words in response to the news reported by TD is for us to really tear down these men who have given so much of themselves. Well done Tristan. Glad you are a Twin.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think it would help to use more left handed hitters against a left handed pitcher. I think it can knock the pitcher off rhythm just like a pitcher can get knocked off rhythm when a runner gets on base. I would start more than one left handed hitter and space them apart. I also think that lineup construction makes it more difficult for the other team to manage middle of the game bullpen moves.
  4. jorgenswest
    It won’t be called the same because ABS isn’t finding the exact location of the ball and won’t consistently find that pitch in the same location. We can be confident that the ball is no more than 0.5 inches away from where ABS’s prediction of the location. We can be pretty confident that it is no more than 0.4 inches away from actual. Those beautiful graphics shown on games omit the disclaimer that MLB IS 99% confident that the ball is no more than 0.5 inches from where it is shown on the graphic. I think the best option is use it all the time to automatically overturn a call when it is outside that 0.5 inches away tolerance. Even 0.4 inches would be OK. Under that I think the umpires seeing the entire path and movement of the ball are more likely to make the correct call.
  5. jorgenswest
    I appreciated that Shelton didn’t make bench moves mid game when Ens came in. The Orioles don’t have a late inning lefty. I also appreciated that Bradley had a chance to work out of trouble in the early innings.
  6. jorgenswest
    I should add that since I said it was a bad idea to start Caratini he would be my pick for first home run.
  7. jorgenswest
    Would it make a difference to you if it was .782?
  8. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is wise to start Caratini. He might get two at bats against the lefty but later in the game against a right handed pitcher he won’t be the best option. Clemens and Larnach are both better hitters against a right handed pitcher. Is Shelton willing to pinch hit for his back up catcher in a key last third of the game at bat? If so then I am OK with Caratini starting. Until I see it though I think starting him with Jeffers is a bad idea. I also think it is good to have a couple of left handed bats in the line up to keep a lefty from getting into a rhythm. At bats are not independent events with the answer in a spreadsheet. Having to shift pitch mix for a lefty might make the location for the next right handed batter not quite as sharp. That next right handed bat might have a better chance to do some damage.
  9. jorgenswest
    The 14 include Rice and Falmouth where he played in 2016. He has moved from the Pittsburgh organization to Tampa Bay to Oakland to Miami to Chicago back to Tampa Bay and now Minnesota by age 30.
  10. jorgenswest
    Congratulations to Tristan Gray! After years of hard work he is on an opening day roster. In the last 10 years he has played with 14 teams including a stop in Perth, Australia. Make the most of it Tristan.
  11. jorgenswest
    Congratulations to Tristan Gray! After years of hard work he is on an opening day roster. In the last 10 years he has played with 14 teams including a stop in Perth, Australia. Make the most of it Tristan.
  12. jorgenswest
    This one reversed a strike out. It is simply disrespect to umpires to overturn a call where at this point ABS truly has no idea of the ball is in the strike zone or not. The closer it is to the edge I would bet on the human seeing the movement of the ball over ABS. Image from the Athletic story. I am sure some are watching and marveling about the precision of ABS. They don’t realize there is a tolerance and ABS isn’t certain of the exact location of the ball.
  13. jorgenswest
    @Riverbrian I am with you. They need to identify talent. Roster Outman? That’s fine but do it because you believe he can help you starting 3 or 4 games a week. Do it because you believe there is a reasonable chance (33%?) that the player that 3rd in rookie of the year balloting is still there. Don’t do it because you might need a centerfielder. If they don’t have enough confidence to give him those starts roster someone else.
  14. jorgenswest
    It should be a really high bar. Umpires were very accurate last year. Approximately 42-43.5 percent of pitches were 0-0.5 inches away from the edge of the plate. Of those about 90 pitches a game both ABS and humans are going to miss some particularly as it gets closer to 0. No one will know for certain which is correct. Shouldn’t MLB simply acknowledge that there are some pitches close enough to the edge that they aren’t sure whether the human or ABS is correct? Maybe that is less than 0.4 inches. It should be something. Outside that chosen range send the call down to home plate and fix it. Inside that range acknowledge that ABS is not certain. Show respect to umpires who otherwise will have some correct calls on close pitches overturned by the inaccuracy of ABS.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Outman will get the DeShawn Keirsey playing time role. If that is the case I don’t want Roden instead of Outman. I want him here instead of Larnach. There is always so much angst about the 13th or sometimes 12th position player who won’t get that much playing time. For me it is Roden over Larnach. That might look like Roden at 1B and Bell at DH or it could look like Roden in LF over Larnach. Just a note to add that @Riverbrian has advocated that all 13 position players be utilized. I am not sure that any team does that but this might be the team that needs to do it. If usage is like last year I prefer Outman in the Keirsey role.
  16. jorgenswest
    I do. I will fix. Thanks.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Athletic had an article today that some data I had seen before but couldn’t recall. According to MLB the ABS system is 95% confident that the ABS is no more than 0.39 inches from its predicted location. It is 99% confident that it is no more than .48 inches from its predicted location. That makes me wonder if MLB should be overturning calls that are within a half inch or four tenths of an inch. They could be overturning a human call that is actually correct. Perhaps it should be labeled inconclusive in that range and go with the human call. The team keeps their challenge. Human umps were deemed 92.83% accurate last year and the best were better than 95% accurate. In truth humans were more accurate than 92.83%. That 92.83% assumes that robo umps are 100% accurate. MLB confirms they aren’t. Some of those 7.17% “bad calls” were actually correct and ABS had it wrong. I don’t think baseball was looking to solve a problem with the ABS system. I think they were looking to manufacture drama. The argument that ABS is consistent doesn’t work on close pitches. The solution to the problem is simple. Acknowledge that it isn’t perfect and then automatically reverse calls that are outside that 1/2 inch (or 0.4 inches) tolerance. Don’t waste time on challenges. Every time a call is overturned inside that tolerance this year we need to realize that the human may have had it right. Baseball is a great game and doesn’t need this manufactured drama.
  18. jorgenswest
    I see it so different. Baseball is entertainment to me. The hours I spent listening and watching last year were not a waste. They won’t be a waste this year. If they were a waste to me I would spend that time elsewhere.
  19. jorgenswest
    Roden has played 1B. He plays a solid outfield so his defense would be a waste at 1B. I looked to some reports from college when he was acquired and his defense at 1B was also solid. The Twins would be wise to play at first base a few times a week in St. Paul,
  20. jorgenswest
    Roden has two options left. Rodriguez has 1. I would have had them both on the roster but priority to Rodriguez. His season might look like struggle initially or struggle once the league sees him. He can then go get reset on his option and return. That would give him the off-season to build off of that. I don’t know if he will have a career as a starter in the major leagues. The path to that role might need some up and down. He only has one year left to do that. Roden needs to be up too.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think it is likely that Kreidler will be DFA’d at some point early. Roster spots will be needed. If he does get called back up they need him to agree to never challenge a pitch. I know it was preseason but he used the Twins last challenge in one of the games this weekend. Let’s save those challenges for batter that can do damage after he wins the call.
  22. jorgenswest
    Urshela, Chafin and Hendriks were all acquired after Falvey left as well as some other veterans. I wonder if Falvey’s plan was to avoid those veteran signings. The time Zoll gave to those veterans in camp and in games is wasted. I am glad they are moving on though.
  23. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if this is the right decision. They have seen him throwing in many workouts so it is much more than a handful of innings in spring games. I do appreciate that they are willing to quickly move on from an older player. I hope that pattern continues.
  24. jorgenswest
    They have DFA’d Ryan Fitzgerald and Vidal Brujan this off season. Gray and Kreidler come to the Twins after being DFA’d multiple times.
  25. jorgenswest
    Arcia. Kreidler can be removed from 40. Gray can also. Both have most value as depth in AAA off of the 40.
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