jorgenswest

In the spring of 2023 the DFA’d or released Trevor Megill, Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe. Hoffman and Coulombe joined the Twins on minor league deals. Megill was claimed on waivers. There are relievers out there like them without success on their resumes yet. They probably wouldn’t make anyone’s list. They need to identify them and this time recognize their potential.

I agree. I was just really interested when you said “from what I am hearing”. Your math is good. I wonder about those other 28 spots. They are allowed to fill a some of those with players earning beyond the minimum either by trade or free agency. I am skeptical that they will. I haven’t heard anything sourced from them yet though. Going back to the beginning of our exchange it is that “hearing” phrase that caught my curiosity.

Those are payroll baselines based on today. They are not sourced information about their future plans for this off season. I personally think they will be at or under 100 million. That is my speculation and not based on any sourced information about the Twins plans for the future.

What is your source?

The Red Sox had a pretty good roster and the payroll flexibility to give him a chance. I am not sure anyone can be successful in the Twins circumstance.

I think the best staffs are very good at predetermination. Playing time at the majors is limited. I don’t think any organization can afford to give all of their players that reach the 40 the necessary playing sample to determine. Successful small and mid market teams will be good at determining the likelihood of success prior to arrival at the majors We need the Twins to be very good at projecting as players arrive at the majors. Play Brooks Lee nearly every day. Bet on him and approach 1500 PAs. Maybe then you need to move on. Let them struggle and keep playing them. Everyday day. Have your answer prior to arbitration. Don’t waste too many days on the bench or you still want know when you get to arbitration. Look at the Astros after they tore it down. After trades and drafts they had a lot of good prospects in the system. They played Altuve virtually every day for 2+ seasons. After 1536 plate appearances he was still a below average hitter (93 OPS+) but they won that bet. He really payed off as he it his arbitration years. They were also probably lucky he arrived a year or so below the prospect bubble. Gonzalez and Villar didn’t arrive until later and Altuve was established playing everyday before their arrival. Once the prospect bubble hit they missed on a few trying to give playing time to too many. They had a glut of outfielders. All young. All good prospects with success in the minors. Some were prized prospects acquired in trade, They should have bet on JD Martinez. He had just 975 PAs after three years with the Astros and they didn’t tender him as he entered his arb years. With the glut of young outfield prospects they were splitting playing time among Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Chris Johnson, Brian Bogusevic, Fernando Martinez, LJ Hoes, Brandon Barnes and Robbie Grossman. All struggled as prearb players. None were taken to arbitration. They would have better betting on a few. They should have determined that Martinez was the guy. It wasn’t just outfielders. They missed on Jonathan Villar who was splitting time in the infield until he made it to arbitration. The DFA’d him and moved him in a minor trade to Milwaukee after three years. His first year in Milwaukee he stole 62 bases with an OPS+ of 117 playing shortstop everyday for them. Of course they were so bad they could afford to miss. Springer, Correa and Bregman were in the way. No splitting time for them. No team has more FV45 and better prospects than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates that aren’t at arbitration yet including Wallner, Keaschall, Lee, Martin, Julien, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa and Bradley. They need to bet on the right guys and they need to be good at it. Bet of Roden or not. Let’s not end the year with plate appearances in the 300s. They can’t waste too many of their prearb days on the bench or they will still be wondering as they hit arbitration.

Francona had Schilling, Rolen for all 4 years and Abreu for 3 in Philadelphia. The Phillies payroll was not near the bottom of baseball in that time. Bill Simmons wrote early in his Red Sox career Clearly learning happened for Francona and he grew into a very good manager when he wasn’t one in Philadelphia. We can only hope that Shelton has learned and grown from his failures in Pittsburgh. It is possible. Francona is an example.

What is the confusion? This happens every offseason. They needed to open some spots on the 40. Others will be moved when more open spots are needed. No need to remove them now. It is also not time to fret about the 40 man. There will be plenty of movement before opening day, That they are aiming higher than Laweryson, Misiewicz, Hatch, Tonkin and Cabrera for the bullpen was good news to me.

The Twins shouldn’t go free agency unless they can get someone Naylor or better. Anyone below at best delays the problem a year and at worst are given many at bats while performing at a mediocre level. They should consider a trade of prospects for someone that is above average for a 1B. The Cardinals are looking to deal Contreras but there will be the no trade clause hurdle there. Some good bats will be moved this winter and the Twins have the prospect capital to win those deals. Failing a significant investment in dollars for a free agent or prospects for an established veteran they should go with Roden and if he fails slide Keaschall over or go back to Clemens.

If I am going to look at one batting measure from last season to help project next season I would look at xwOBA. xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and depending on the type of contact sprint speed. All elements the batter controls. AL Central xwOBA .346 Torkelson .345 Pasquantino .331 Manzardo .327 Vargas The three above .337 France .307 Andujar .311 Lowe I guess France would fit if he doesn’t decline in his 30s. The other two are in the bottom tier of first basemen. The Twins traded for Roden. He has crushed AAA. He has experience at first base. I would give him a shot and maybe there is no need to write this article next year. Maybe it wasn’t needed this year anyway. Clemens had an xwOBA of .341 which fits the AL Central competition pretty well.

I think they need to put the best 12 arms on the major league roster with Adams/Ohl/Laweryson in the 13th spot. I hope they will not be fixed in a role. In a different thread I looked at the starters chosen for the last two All Star games and several had spent time as relievers. Some shifted from reliever to starter midseason. I see 9 arms that were starters in 2025 that are in the majors or reasonably ready for the majors. I would put four in the bullpen. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Abel and Prielipp all need a spot if they are the top 12 arms. Roster them. Give Raya a shot to win a spot.

My point is that they can wait and still get the 50s for Ryan and should wait. This is also a Twins surplus. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. That doesn’t include guys that were FV50 or better in Roden, Festa, Matthews or Bradley. At some point they are going to need to invest major league time into the guys they have and no team has more. Roden has played 1B. He crushed the ball in the minors. Let’s start with him. They need to develop what they have and Ryan and Lopez are going to helpful to the development of the pitchers this year. Trade them next offseason or even at the deadline of their last year of control.

@Riverbrian 1) I don’t think they can get that elite prospect and I don’t think they got enough for Duran or Varland. If they can get that elite prospect I am in. Those players are moved much less frequently in the last 10 years. I don’t want them to settle for the FV50 group. The Fangraphs curve of future value shapes like this. FV65: 2 FV60: 5 FV55: 16 FV50: 72 FV45: 184 (49 have 45+) I think they can get the next tier in a year or at least at the deadline this year if they are not competing. For Duran they received a 45+ and a 45. I really think they could have received something similar at this deadline. 2) Ryan’s peak is also valuable to them and I believe it is these first two years of arbitration while his salary is very manageable. I really respect the Guardians and Brewers. They keep their players at that peak. Burnes was traded with one year left. Williams was traded with one year left. Hader was 1+ but they traded him in a season they didn’t make the playoffs and Williams was ready for the closer job. The Guardians traded Lindor in his final year of arbitration. They aren’t trading players at their peak. Why should the Twins? Factoring in surplus value Ryan has more than twice as much now as a year from now. They need to retain players at their peak value as the Brewers and Guardians do. In 2023 Ryan wasn’t ready to be that impact playoff pitcher yet. He was last year and is now. They shouldn’t trade that away unless they are blown away with an offer. Let’s not trade it away for some FV50s. The odds are a player at that future value will not be impactful. Even FV55s are questionable. Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis are recent Twins FV55s on the major league roster. Counting playoff impact Duran probably had at least three times as much excess value when he was traded as opposed to being traded after the 2026. Did they get that value? Note: I use Fangraphs for the ease of their data. I also appreciate that they are conservative in their player valuations. It should look like a curve. The number 100 player in the MLB pipeline is an overall 55. I don’t know how deep their FV55s go but it is past 100. That is a future of an above average regular. Those players are in the league and regulars well into their 30s. It isn’t possible we have over 100 of those above average regulars in the pipeline right now. I think MLB has motivation to overhype the prospects. Teams like the Twins need to sell that overhyped prospect to their fan base when they trade away their few valuable assets.

I suggest everyone simply go listen to the press conference and decide for themselves what is most telling.

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies. I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

Is anyone aware of data that shows the success for minor league catchers on their challenge calls? I can find aggregate AAA numbers from 2024. The overall success rate was 49.5%. Hitters were successful 45% of the time. Catchers and pitchers were successful 53.5%. I don’t have the split for that year but my guess it is something around 56% catchers to 41% pitchers which were the spring numbers. It would be really interesting to see individual catcher success rate over their years in the minors. Just the challenge numbers isn’t enough. We also need the on the pitches that were not challenges. How many opportunities will be missed? It is really four buckets challenge/success, challenge/fail, no challenge/missed strike and no challenge/called correctly. Digging deeper in those buckets it would be good to know how many were really close close calls. New catching skills to be measured for 2026. the ability to successfully challenge called balls the ability to make a strike look like a ball trying to get the batter to call for an unsuccessful challenge. the ability to receive a ball well so the umpire calls it a strike and the batter does not challenge. Some catchers are going to be much better at this than others. The range of skill will likely be greater than the framing numbers. I hope the Twins have enough of their analytics staff left to the identify the catchers with challenging skills that are elite.

I will acknowledge that the starting pitching was so much better when Vazquez and Jeffers both returned from injury to finish the season. I would still prefer them to at least make an attempt to solve the problem particularly since they have one year of control left with Jeffers. I see the Pirates with four catchers on their roster to end the season in Davis, Rodriguez, Bart and Flores. The prospect shine has dulled on Rodriguez and Davis. They just acquired Flores in the Bednar deal. I would try to make a trade there. Campusano from the Padres has lost his prospect shine. The Dodgers chose Rortvedt over Rushing for the NLCS and World Series. He has lost some shine. I would go after a prospect who has lost some shine and see if they can turn it around. They tried it with Cartaya last year. Didn’t work out. Try again. Unlike Cartaya the catchers above hit the ball beyond A-Ball. They can also pay more in prospect capital for a catcher like Harry Ford that has a catcher in front of him. I also wonder if there is any data on minor league catchers and their challenge success rate. Find a catcher really skilled at calling challenges.

The Twins can fit a Naylor type bat in the budget. I would argue that signing a good bat for the middle of the lineup helps with the development of the young players. Jenkins is going to see better pitchers in a good bat is up in a batter or two. He will see better pitches if more runners are one base. I don’t think it helps to sign a player in the tiers below Naylor. Players that will take team friendly one year deals. Players that last dominated 3 or more years ago. Players that only hit well on one side of the platoon. If the budget is truly that prohibitive I would prefer one significant signing instead of spreading it on one year deals across a handful of positions.

Shouldn’t he have been in your payroll list?

What happened to Springer?

Last year 15 teams signed free agents to a contract of at least 30 million (in total not AAV). Several signed multiple players at that commitment or much more. Unusually one of the fifteen last year was the A’s. All of the others are the teams we would expect. The Twins this year as they were last year will be among the other fifteen or so. Some of those fifteen will find a way to compete.

If I am a once top prospect catcher looking for a fresh start and opportunity Minnesota would be near the top of my list. There is a clear opening at number 2 and a chance to be number 1 if Jeffers is moved at the deadline. Opportunities in the Twins bullpen are vast. There is an opportunity to come here take over the closer role during the season and change a career. It may be an opportunity a former top prospect shortstop or first baseman would take. There are players out there that just need a fresh start and new opportunity to take the next step. Anyone looking for that opportunity should want to come here.

How often are teams trading top players with 2 full years of service time? Why are we so anxious to trade Ryan? Do the Brewers and Guardians trade their top pitchers this early? Ryan’s surplus value is more than 2 times greater than it will be a year from now but they will not get offered that value. Let’s be patient.

I think Hrbek would have been managed similarly to Kepler. Both were established veterans and really helped on defense. He rarely pinch hit for Kepler.

Very true. The only top flight prospect was Skenes,