jorgenswest

The only example I can think of is Varland ending the season with a successful run as a Twins reliever in ‘23 and then returning to starter in ‘24. It is a waste of time to argue whether it is never or almost never though. I do wonder if he is changing his stance on moving back to starter from reliever since they haven’t acquired cheap solutions for the bullpen. I think he is planning on using some of the young starters. The Twins are going to need some of them to start down the road. I also am not worried about the “never” because I don’t think Falvey is “forever”. If this doesn’t work and the Twins are not buyers at the deadline I think he is gone. Someone new coming in is going to have an open mind to all roster possibilities. They aren’t going to have a fixed mind that a bullpen arm can’t be a starter.

A closer might be needed three days in a row or not needed for three days. I would use him more like the White Sox used Chris Sale to start his major league career. They had him in relief to manage his arm. His first season (partial) he began by pitching with two days rest between each outing. By the end there were two occasions where he pitched back to back. In his second season he rarely pitched back to back and never three days in a row. Of his 58 appearances 37 were across multiple innings. He did have 8 saves that year and 4 the year before but was never the closer. After that first full year he transitioned to starter.

As a prospect Vidal Brujan had the kind of top flight status I am expecting to get in return for a Joe Ryan. Brujan peaked in 2019 and an FV60 with Fangraphs. The reality of Major League Baseball is that even the top flight prospects often don’t make it. It looks like he can play SS with a -4 career OAA and a +4 career DRS and really anywhere in the outfield or infield. He can run bases. I don’t think the 2018 minor league Brujan with a wRC+ of 150 and 55 stolen bases exists anymore but maybe a bench bat with positional flexibility that can run and has enough bat to put up a wRC+ in the 80s is there.

Isn’t Nico Hoerner a free agent after this season? Seems like Shaw is a perfect fit there. I am sure a team can get Shaw with an overpay right now. Long term he has a fit in the Cubs line up and they should be reluctant to trade him.

I am not confident this is true. I am confident it will be reported as fact by many future posts on TD. Fangraphs has not done their postseason update for the Twins. We do have that from MLB. Their pipeline has rising to number 10. I think if the Twins were offered Norm McLean at number 11 Joe would have been traded to the Mets. I think if they were offered number 7 Basallo from the Orioles Joe would have been traded. The A’s De Vries was in some rumors but I am sure he wasn’t offered to the Twins for Ryan. The only player on the top 20 that may have been offered was the Giants first basemen Eldridge. That is a hard offer to take given his left wrist injury and surgery. If he didn’t play first base and had to take the stress of every throw it might be different. I posted earlier the medical analysis of that injury and the challenge for first basemen. I am guessing they were offered multiple FV45 to 50 level talent much like the offer for Berrios. As of the deadline no team had more players in that group than the Twins. They need to get that top flight talent like Jenkins. If there is sourced reporting that they turned down players in the Jenkins range like Basallo or McLean I will join you in my disappointment that he wasn’t moved. Prospects like that rarely get moved this decade. i think that is why Joe Ryan is still a Twin. Maybe it is why Skubal is still a Tiger. Once those kinds of offers become a reality we might need to wait for Skubal to move before Ryan.

I don’t think there is any question he is a leader and will be valuable in the clubhouse. Jose Bell been nominated twice by two different teams for the Roberto Clemente award. The award honors a player who best represents baseball through extraordinary character, community involvement, and philanthropy. Pablo Lopez has been a recent Twins nominee and was also nominated by the Marlins.

I don’t know if he earns a spot in the starting rotation. I do believe that facing major league hitters is best for his development. He has dominated AAA. If he doesn’t make the rotation he needs to be in the bullpen.

Concur. That is why I appreciate they added those three very young catchers to the pipeline. Relative to other teams I believe they now have a lot of depth. Tait should reach AA sometime this year. They have nothing that appears to be starting quality in 2027 short of extending Jeffers.

He threw out runners last year at a respectable rate. He should be considered. Jair Camargo was elite at this skill but Tommy John surgery probably derailed his chances. His arm was his ticket to the majors and hopefully it can return to that 40+% rate of throwing out runners. The Braves have signed him to a minor league deal.

Susac has a wRC+ of 94 in AAA last year. You need to be a pretty good defensive player to make it to the majors with that below average wRC+ in AAA. Susac’s hit tool scouting grade in Fangraphs is 30/35. Jackson is the better defender and had a 100 plate appearance sample with a major league wRC+ of 111. His wOBA was much better than his xwOBA so there is some luck there. I doubt either will have a wRC+ better than 80 in the majors next year but I would take Jackson’s glove and experience over Susac. If the Twins could have put Susac in the minors to get a lot of playing in hopes of improving his bat he would have been a worthwhile add.

Kepler’s 20.5 baseball reference WAR as a Twin is worthy of consideration to be in the Twins Hall of Fame. Playing the same position Michael Cuddyer had 12.8 as a Twin. Corey Koskie was a recent inductee with 22.1. Morneau at 22.9. Dan Gladden had 5.7 but he was also a long time broadcaster. I think there are three retired players with over 20 WAR on the team that have not been elected to the Twins HOF in Dave Goltz, Roy Smalley and Brian Dozier. I would put them in first. Goltz has the greatest WAR among the three. Chuck Knoblauch was elected but not enshrined. His transgressions are not a comp for Kepler’s. Assuming the evidence for Kepler is from this off-season I don’t see any reason it would keep him out. The Twins are going to elect someone every year to have that celebratory weekend. If Kepler is ever the best candidate his post Twins steroid use shouldn’t keep him out. Right now there are better candidates and he will be behind Buxton when they both are retired.

Looked up pipeline a few different places. from Merriam-Webster Going with the idiom “in the pipeline” Edit: just read @mikelink45 post. I asked Google “Does a baseball organizations pipeline includes players acquired in trades for minor leaguers?” The AI overview I think it is fair to call this our catching pipeline as of today. I am glad they added to that pipeline the acquisitions of Tait, Jimenez and Caraballo. Those are promising young players. The pipeline as it stands today does not seem adequate to fill the needs for 2027 though.

In general based on AAA data that is true. I am sure there are done pitchers that will be very good at it as well as catchers that do poorly. It will be very valuable to have a catcher that has an elite ability to identify a strike from a called ball,

Realmuto’s offensive numbers dipped but they are still good relative to catchers. He threw out runners well but his framing has dropped. That will be less important next year. He handles the pitching staff well. BAT X sees him bouncing back some. I would give him 2 years and around 24 million. I think the Phillies will also and this is just noise to get him to sign. The Twins ought to jump in and make an agreement with Realmuto while trading Jeffers to the Phillies for prospects.

I look forward to seeing Keaschall with a healthy arm. He may have had some good luck with his balls in play but he also had bad luck with the injuries. His healthy arm will help in the field also.

Speed is a component of xwOBA. In the list of players who outperformed their wOBA according to their contact you see players like Naylor and Raleigh that don’t have elite speed out of the batter’s box. You will see some faster guys in the list of players that underperformed. Both his xwOBA and wOBA were strong and that is encouraging for next year. Buxton’s difference of 19 is among the larger among starters but not in the top 10 of that list and maybe something that comes with that elite end of really solid contact. Keaschall is a different story. His xwOBA was significantly lower than his wOBA. He needs an above average at bat to mix in with his below average glove at 2B or fit on a corner. I think he will improve his contact numbers as he returns to health. He was lucky last year with his slash stats but can trade better health and experience for that luck and still perform above league average. Roden didn’t play enough or with consistency for any of these numbers to be meaningful.

The point of xwOBA is it is more stable in small samples than wOBA and slash stats. It takes a very large sample for slash stats to stabilize. Julien outperformed his contact in 2023. He had poor contact numbers in 2024. He underperformed his contact in 2025. He probably should be expected to be in middle of his 2023 and 2025 performances. That would be in the neighborhood of a league average. That isn’t enough to start at 1B. He doesn’t help on the bench with speed or defensive versatility. Without improvement his only good fit on a roster is a starting 2B if his glove is at least mediocre. With less than 1000 plate appearances improvement is possible. The Twins need to be open to that possibility and not have their minds fixed. Julien needs to show that improvement in spring. Clemens is a good fit on a bench. He can play 5 positions, run the bases and offers pop. He hit right handed pitching well and is a platoon fit at several positions. Outman was unlucky but that doesn’t matter when his expected stats aren’t good enough either. With his defense he needs a bat in the Michael A Taylor range (career OPS+ about 80) to have a major league job as a fourth outfielder. Taylor was an exceptional fielder and that was good enough to start some years. Outman’s 2023 season and minor league numbers make that a possibility. He will need to show it in spring or I would go with the upside in Roden’s bat as the 4th OF and sacrifice some defense. Once Jenkins or Rodriguez arrive the Twins won’t have a need for a back up CF with an 80 OPS so the clock is ticking. Outman needs to take advantage of any opportunity he gets early this year.

I was in Fangraphs and did a lot of sorting of 1Bs. Bell doesn’t come up when sorted by first basemen unless you go down to 100 plate appearances as a 1B. Of the 1Bs listed in the group his wRC+ of 120 as a 1B was 17th of 52. His defense in that group was 42 of 52. That ranking is doesn’t take into account playing time. He probably would really be near the bottom with Tyler Soderstrom and Yandy Diaz. Pete Alonso and Vinnie Pasquantino would be down there too. He was mostly a DH last year so both WAR and OAA are not very useful in comparing to regulars 1Bs since they are both tied to playing time as a 1B. If the bat is of primary importance at 1B his overall numbers last year are comparable to the league average 1B and that is much better than the Twins 1Bs last year. If for some reason he is truly hits better when he is on the field then his wRC+ of 120 as a 1B is better than the average for the position.

I tried to find a measure that had them 37th and 43rd. I even tried WAR to find 37 and 43 even though I know it would not be valid since Bell played mostly DH and all those DH games would carry a defensive penalty in the WAR calculation. Those ranks still did not come up. Bell had a wRC+ of 107. As a league the wRC+ overall was 109. The team median was 106. The Twins first basemen had a wRC+ of 90. Assuming he performs similarly to last year I would describe Bell as more of an upgrade than a ranking of 37 suggests.

I think Martin will always fit on a roster. Positional flexibility, speed and the ability to take a good at bat will always work on a bench even if there isn’t enough power to be a starter. I think Martin’s best fit is 2B. There has to be some concern about Keaschall at 2B. He was a questionable fit at the time of the draft before the arm injuries. Keaschall’s arm strength was 6th percentile last year. If Keaschall’s average of 74.7 MPH improves to around his max last year of 78.3 MPH that will probably work for most double play turns. We can’t compare Martin’s average of 85.5 MPH from outfield with Keaschall from second base directly as it is a different throw. Willi Castro’s MPH from 2B is a few MPH less than outfield. The difference between Keaschall and Martin is enough to believe that last year Martin’s arm was significantly better. Does a healthy Keaschall have enough arm to play 2B or is Martin the better option?

I don’t think a short side platoon is worth roster spot unless they can contribute defensively or have some speed but I am probably in the minority on that view. Wagaman did have an OPS of .783 against lefties his rookie season. He did well as a sub entering with an OPS of .826. His overall OPS was 103 points better in his second half. He has three options remaining. He might not be a bad option for a right handed short side platoon bat.

I honestly have no idea if that would have made a difference. They could have given any of these seven time in the bullpen to end the season. Matthews, Woods Richardson had spots in the rotation until the end. Starting Abel and Bradley gave them the opportunity to see the most innings out of these two new acquisitions. Festa was injured. Prielipp was on a schedule that appeared to me to be very connected to rebuilding his arm. They didn’t deviate much from that progression. Raya was moved to the bullpen. His last start was 6 innings on August 14. After that he made 10 relief appearances. He was still needed in the rotation. McLaughlin started at least three bullpen days in September. I am not sure if the move to the pen was about gaining bullpen experience or lessening his innings or both. With Lopez, Ryan and Ober these seven make 10 starters with a few others that need to get starts in AAA. I think the plan was to use some of these arms to build a bullpen this year. I hope it works.

I hope they keep giving him work at 2B. If Keaschall suffers another injury or can’t play 2B adequately following the arm injuries they have options in Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Roden and Fedko in left field but not near the options for 2B.

His numbers were solid last year and it doesn’t appear to be luck. His xWOBA was greater than his wOBA. His challenge will be how he responds as the league adjusts to him.

I don’t think it was ever a rebuild. I think they believe they can restock prospects using the bullpen and find inexpensive bullpen pieces among their many pre-arb starting arms. The first half of the plan leaves them with many FV45 to FV50 players. I am not confident that they can build a bullpen from the starters beyond number 5 but I am hopeful. The Brewers and Guardians have found several bullpen arms using few resources. The Mariners traded several closers since Dipoto took very in return for prospects. One year they traded their closer at the deadline while contending. None of these teams have tried to turn it over all at once though. Falvey’s job should be connected to its success.