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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    You are correct on the velocity. He started in the 94s and ended in the 92s.
  2. jorgenswest
    How much meaning is there for slash stat lines in a 6 week sample?
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins don’t need to be buyers or sellers. They need to be opportunists. Every player has value to this team. No one should be traded for whatever they can get. Any player should be traded if a team offers significantly beyond that value. I would trade both Jeffers and Caratini if those deals were overpays. I would trade Ryan if an offer is presented that is beyond his significant value to this team. Bell has value as they compete for a wild card spot but he also has the lowest return bar to me. I think there is value in giving Wallner one last chance to show he is the hitter we have seen in previous seasons. He is the closest to that the best they can get bar.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would have thought so also. It is hard to resolve why the majority of starters individually have lower OPS against with Jeffers catching than Jackson or Caratini. I wrote about it when Jeffers went down. I need to update but a quick look and the pitchers seem to pitch better with Jeffers. His overall line doesn’t look that good because he has caught Woods Richardson more than any other Twins pitcher and though SWR performed best with Jeffers no catcher could help him. Caratini catches Ryan more than any other pitcher. I do believe that catchers vary in their ability to manage a games game and a pitcher. It is difficult to measure and catcher ERA is all but useless. There is so much bias when one catcher has Ryan the most and the other SWR. Is that coincidence or does the staff trust Jeffers more and gives him more of the tougher assignments? Is it possible that Jeffers handles the game and the starter better than the other two?
  5. jorgenswest
    Yes. They did that with the bullpen last year. It really counts on Jackson bringing major league caliber defense behind the plate.
  6. jorgenswest
    All significant free agents sign contracts where the last few years of those deals look bad. It might be worth it. It is so hard to build a playoff caliber starting rotation from pitchers in their first 6 years of control. Teams like Minnesota really don’t get 6. They get 5 and if they want to sell at peak value they get 4. In Ryan’s case and many others those first few years are not playoff caliber. Joe wasn’t ready in 2023 to be that playoff starter. Maybe we will trade Joe Ryan this month and give up 2 years of playoff control. Next will be Bradley. He looks playoff caliber this year. He is also entering arbitration. Another good year and after 2027 from now there will be conversation about selling high. There certainly will be a push to trade him by the 2028 deadline. How do they ever build that staff when they spend a few years of the 6 developing and then are rightly motivated to trade off the last 2 of 6 of playoff control?
  7. jorgenswest
    Too add… It is a compensatory round pick that a team receives already. Teams do lost draft picks and that loss depends on their luxury tax status. The league could give up that part and seek other ways of balancing competition if that is their true interest.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would be willing to trade them both and go with Jackson. The offers will have to be good ones. I think Caratini is a sell high. Catchers don’t age well and he has 10 million on his contract next year when the buy out is included. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50. Short of that I would make a qualifying offer, I get that a Jackson has no walks and he might not hit. I don’t think Caratini is a primary catcher next year and 10 million is too much for the Twins to pay a second catcher. Maybe Jackson will show in regular play that he is part of a solution for next year.
  9. jorgenswest
    It isn’t nothing to me. These games matter. The joy of watching the 162 far outweighs hopes at a future playoff chance for me. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50 otherwise I would prefer they keep him.
  10. jorgenswest
    Seek a Berrios level (two top 100) return at this deadline. If they don’t get that offer hold him. The key to the Berrios deal was reinvesting that salary slot in Gray the next two years. The Twins need to do that if they trade Ryan.
  11. jorgenswest
    I would trade Caratini before Jeffers. I would even trade both if I could get an FV50 for Jeffers. We can find out if Alex Jackson can fulfill his once top prospect promise at age 30. After trading Caratini I would increase the budget and make the QO. I would far prefer spending 23 million on Jeffers than 10 on Caratini and the rest on a Josh Bell type and a couple aging relievers. Give me one above average player and three young players over four mediocre at best veterans.
  12. jorgenswest
    Actually 10 for Caratini. He has 3.5 million dollar buyout or they pay 12 million in 2028. Seven is the AAV but he is only getting 4 this year. I think it is more important to trade Caratini than Jeffers. I think more decline is coming next year.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would listen on both Jeffers and Caratini. Sell high on Caratini and be willing to trade Jeffers for an FV50 or a couple of FV45s. It is hard to believe that Jackson will continue to hit well without drawing any walks but they can give him the last two months to show he is a major leaguer.
  14. jorgenswest
    Hasn’t he been taking really good at bats and making really good contact so far? He lost an extra base hit when his smash off the wall was a walk off and counted as a single. Thus far his average exit velocity is second on the team and 63.6% of his balls in play have been hard contact while his strike out rate has been relatively low.
  15. jorgenswest
    I would be willing to make the qualifying offer. That would set a higher bar for a trade return. That is true but deceptive. The first three years bought out arb years. The three post free agent years (31-33) in his contract have an AAV of 25 million when you factor in the age 34 buy out.
  16. jorgenswest
    I must be in the wrong thread. I came here to read thoughts on the 6-5 game. Twins took so many great at bats forcing Cleveland pitchers deep into counts. Their staff used over 200 pitches to get 25 outs. Roden saw 25 pitches and had two huge hits. If you come up from the minors you need to make an impression right away. Maybe the hits won’t come but you need to take good at bats. Well done Alan.
  17. jorgenswest
    Darrel Jackson may have died of cancer but he was a winner in the battle of life. He helped so many youth.
  18. jorgenswest
    If Buxton is out is Jenkins the best CF option? I guess Kreidler is but he is the best SS option which may be more important. Jenkins and Kreidler or Kreidler and Gray or Kreidler and Culpepper or something else? Which is the better defensive pair?
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins lead the AL in runs scored and have one position player on the all star team.
  20. jorgenswest
    The NL must be loaded. Ernie Clement leads qualified AL 2Bs at 107 and is the All Star 2B. Clemens has a wRC+ of 122. Bazzana has a wRC+ of 113 as the reserve 2B.
  21. jorgenswest
    What would he be ranked if he played 2B all year and didn’t have the huge negative because the Twins chose to play him at 1B? Positional flexibility adds value to a team but in Clemens case it is reflected in a negative direction by WAR. How does he rank among qualified AL second basemen in wRC+?
  22. jorgenswest
    I think he is more valuable as a starter and would keep that door open. It is true that like Varland he may need to go to the bullpen. Varland made that conversion at age 27. Rojas is 23.
  23. jorgenswest
    How would Jackson Flora do in a major league bullpen? The White Sox did it with Chris Sale after drafting him with the 13th pick in 2010. It didn’t stop Sale from being an elite starter.
  24. jorgenswest
    I am sure you are correct and that reading the ball off the same side makes the transition more likely for success. Left field might be the spot longer term if his bat works.
  25. jorgenswest
    A 127 wRC+ is not thriving. It doesn’t even suggest an average major league hitter. Among players with 150 or more PAs Sabato ranks 57th. It would be unwise to put him on the 40.
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