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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. It is apparent to me. I think he will be back. I am not confident that he is ready yet. It is encouraging to see his out of zone swing rate is down in this stint in AAA. From 22-24 it was 26% in the majors. It was 28.4% last year and 31.6% this year. It looks better in AAA but I would give it more time. It was so clear he had lost the strike zone. He was even far off on some challenges. He needs to consistently stay in the zone. He will still swing and miss with his swing but he must get the pitcher to throw the ball in the strike zone. He is making progress.
  2. Lots of entertaining baseball this week. I would suggest not worrying about seller/buyer and just enjoy the games. We get 162 and there are 83 left. Go Twins!
  3. True. I am not concerned about his performance against the 10 batters. He was getting ahead and giving up weak contact. I do wonder if 10 batters is enough of a rehab. It appears he will continue to rehab in the majors. That won’t be easy.
  4. I just went and rewatched the 5 hits he gave up. An infield single to Gabriel Gonzalez that should have been an out. A towering pop up that either the SS of the CF should have caught. It landed between them. Two weakly hit loopers at least one was a broken bat. A throwing error following a bloop hit advancing runners. A double over Wallner’s head off the wall. Some right fielders get to that ball. He did enough to get 6 outs. If he gets 6 outs over two innings and no runs scored did he still pitch bad? In 10 batters he gave up on well hit ball and a walk with a strike out. Everything else was weak contact.
  5. Are you referring to one game? I think the only way to know how he is pitching and if he is healthy is what they see in practice. Is he also pitching poorly there?
  6. Sixteen runs. The Twins 6-9 hitters with 11 runs scored and 9 RBIs. The main takeaway in the comments seems to be Lawrence. I don’t get it. That first inning was great Twins baseball entertainment. A big two out hit by Brooks scoring runners from second and third followed by Kreidler’s amazing play to get Carroll at first in the bottom half. Wow!
  7. Glad I was wrong about the DFA. I want to see him in the line up everyday at shortstop. That play to get Corbin Carroll in the first was special.
  8. Comparing his numbers to his previous AAA stints he is swinging out of the zone less and has fewer swing strikes. His called strike rate is a little higher than a few of the years but that might be a good thing as long as it is not strike 3 and they are difficult to drive pitches on the border that may be out of the strike zone. One of things he needed to do was get himself in better counts to make the pitcher thrown him something better to hit. The only other thing is observational and recollection. I watched his at bats against Verlander and was impressed by the hard line drive that went for a double. He had a home run that game but it was the double that struck me as different. I also so that hit yesterday that was a single to drive in the winning run.
  9. They might consider playing Clemens at 2B and putting Fedko in the line up against some right handed pitching. Keaschall doesn’t need to play everyday. A stint in AAA might be helpful. Where would they focus that work? Is there something new they can do at 2B that will help? Is outfield a better fit?
  10. Fair enough. I don’t think you will be back short of temporarily with a new ownership. Even the Guardians plan is to keep churning out entertaining teams good enough to compete in season but not a plan to build a World Series winning team. They never go all in and soon it will be 80 years since the last World Series winning team. Maybe the new bargaining agreement will change the outlook but right now they rarely keep players at their peek.
  11. The Twins are second in the AL in runs scored. They have been willing to move on from old relievers and found a few younger relievers that should be there a while. They are one of many flawed AL teams but that doesn’t stop other teams from filling the stands. It is a great venue and a great game. The Twins have played a lot of entertaining games this year. They have one of the elite talents in Buxton. Why not go out to Target Field and see a game?
  12. The premise of the Bowden article assumes every team is a buyer. He wrote about the most pressing need for each team. @Cody Christie invites us here to debate whether or not the Twins should be buyers but that was not the intent of the Bowden article. To be true to the article the debate really should be assuming they are buyers what are their most pressing needs. The bullpen would be at the top of my list.
  13. Concur. It goes both ways though. If Larnach isn’t traded I should accept that the offers were not there and any trade would have been for the sake of trading.
  14. The Rays system at the time was very deep. Both Ryan and Strotman were FV45 in the midseason report. That is far different from this year’s Yankee system. They had two FV45 pitchers entering the season in Bryce Cunningham and Chase Hampton. Both will probably drop in the midseason report.
  15. Marco Raya in the last month has pitched 16 innings over 9 appearances. He has 16 strike outs and no walks. It is really difficult to look at hitter or pitcher stats and make any sense of them in the very distorted run scoring environment of St. Paul. For example the Saints have a .913 OPS at home and a .777 on the road. Pitcher ERA is 5.66 at home and 4.42 on the road. Strike outs and walks matter and Raya has a had a very good last month.
  16. Clemens is prearb and providing a lot of value. His xwOBA last year was solid and it continues to be solid. I would expect he can contribute next year. He is 29th in all of baseball in slugging percentage and would be the leader on several teams. He is 59th in wRC+. He has played just over a year as a Twin and has 30 home runs and a wRC+ of 106. The league average at 2B is 97. The premise of the article is that Keaschall will not play an adequate major league second base. The Twins happen to have a guy that has performed better with the bat than any other AL 2B and has shown to have an above average glove. If Keaschall can’t play an adequate 2B the Twins have a solution for this year and probably next year. That might get them to Culpepper and Houston up the middle. Clemens is going to play somewhere. He has earned it. It doesn’t have to be 2B if Keaschall can handle the position. The Twins have given Keaschall plenty of time there and I am hoping he is the 2B of the future. It is a hope though. The last three times the Twins had a lead in a close game Keaschall was replaced late in the game. That isn’t a good sign.
  17. Clemens has a positive OAA at 2B over his career. If he was the Twins 2B and he maintained that wRC+ of 121 he would lead AL second basemen. Ernie Clement currently has the best wRC+ among qualified AL 2Bs at 112. The Twins have a solution at 2B if they could fix all of the other holes Clemens fills.
  18. Would you trade Wallner? They brought back Lewis. Why not Wallner? It might be the right decision to move on but I am still hoping he comes back and brings the power.
  19. There are pretty good comps for him. The Guardians traded Josh Bell in 2023 In return they took on the remainder of Jean Segura’s contract. They also received a good prospect (fv 45) in Khalil Watson who was in A ball in 2023. They needed to take Segura’s contract (a player they immediately released) for the remainder of 2023, the full season of 2024 plus the 2025 buyout to get Watson. Bell had -0.3 rWAR on a 16.5 million dollar contract at the time of the trade. Watson is now their number 11 prospect. He is 23 in AAA. In 2024 the Marlins traded Josh Bell to the DBacks. Originally the deal was for a player to be named later. The Marlins chose to take cash considerations later in the year. At the time of the trade Bell had -0.6 rWAR on a 16.5 million dollar contract. Bell currently has -0.4 WAR on a 5.75 million dollar contract with a 1.25 million buyout. Maybe they can get cash considerations but that won’t help the future of this team. I think Wallner has more upside and I am really hopeful that Mendez is the real deal. Both fit best at DH. I wouldn’t wait any longer.
  20. Playing in St. Paul is so skewed that an OPS of .823 is below the team average OPS of .839. I don’t know what Fedko’s talent is based on the sample but if his ability against right handed pitching is truly reflected in his below team average OPS then I think he is going to have a really difficult time against major league right handed pitching. Slash stats need a huge sample though so he may be better than that St. Paul context .823 suggests. I suppose his upside is Austin Slater who is trying to hang on in his 10th year of a career as a short side platoon bat that can be used around the outfield with even some use in the infield. Slater was a pretty useful player for the Giants ages 26-30.
  21. Is prospect fatigue a thing? Are there actually front offices that make bad decisions due to prospect fatigue? I can’t imagine that the Twins staff is going to miss on a prospect due to fatigue.
  22. I would be surprised if Fedko has enough glove to play a major league level centerfield. I am aware that after Jenkins, Rodriguez and Roden were out he played centerfield in AAA. Similarly last year when Jenkins and Rodriguez were out he played centerfield. He played little centerfield in A ball and at UConn. The bar for a major league centerfielder is a high one. Since 2019 he has 70 starts there. Many of those are due to multiple injuries on his team. His bat and hopefully an average glove in a corner will be his ticket. That he was the option the team chose to play CF when his teams were hit by injuries is a sign he can play a corner outfield at a major league level.
  23. The kid has earned it. Now they have to play him. He also needs to take good at bats early on to get that time. I hope he gets 3 starts in the next 6.
  24. I can question it. The pitcher had a hard time throwing strikes. Caratini swung at a pitch out of the zone. Keaschall took a swing at one just about in the dirt. Both were in the second pitch. Batters should have had a real small strike zone until they had two strikes. I would have trusted Martin to manage the strike zone over Caratini and get Buxton in the box. I also don’t get it defensively if they tie it up. Who are they playing in the outfield among Bell, Keaschall, Lewis, Lee and Gray? I guess they give up the DH and put Buxton out there.
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