jorgenswest

There has been a lot of close games and entertaining baseball this year. The 162 matter to me.

He peaked as the Yankees number 4 prospect. His path as a Yankee was derailed with a lost 2020 COVID season and then a 2021 season where he tore a UCL. He was out of options before he was ready and has ridden the DFA train from the Yankees to the Dodgers to the White Sox to the Rays to the Twins. Hopefully the train stops here.

Seems like they already have more position players than normal on the 40. The 40 is usually pitcher heavy. I am not ready to let go any of Gonzalez, Mendez, Rodriguez, Roden, Wallner or Lewis. Adding Culpepper will add to the imbalance if they were to drop Raya, Klein or Funderburk. I also don’t see which of the four healthy position players I would bring up. Lewis is the only one that can help in the field or on the bases. I guess either a pinch hit bat in Gonzalez or Mendez. Mendez looks to have the best command of the strike and maybe more ready. He could pinch hit for Kreidler or Arcia. They won’t have lefties on the bench.

Jansen with cash was moved at the deadline and the return was marginal. Jadher Areinamo might of ranked mid 20s with the Twins. He is floundering in AA this year. I wouldn’t have made that deal and the Brewers would have preferred Jansen anyway. They were looking for a short term solution. The Twins probably could have a middling level prospect from the Phillies in the winter. Jeffers was coming off an OK season (1.2 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). It was a quiet catcher winter. Realmuto, Caratini and Jansen were the free agents with Ford and Jackson moving in trade. The Phillies were the only real buyer. Maybe they could have got an Alan Roden type as a ceiling. The Phillies might have been waiting Realmuto out all along. Writers speculated the Red Sox also but they prioritized other positions. Reports after the Realmuto signing were that the Red Sox never seriously pursued him preferring Narvaez and his strong defense. Do you think Boras would have him take a qualifying offer or go to free agency? I guess it is most important what the Twins think. They cut off the money in 2023 and still made Gray a qualifying offer. I am not as certain as you that they wouldn’t do the same with Jeffers. A comp pick is likely comparable to his value last winter. It is likely folly but my mind is not fixed. I hope they make that offer and I hope he surprises him and takes it. He is valuable to that staff.

When was the last time a catcher received a free agent contract with an AAV above the qualifying offer? I don’t see one in the last 5 years. I only see two significant contracts in the last 5 years at 5/87 and 3/45 but Jeffers hasn’t performed over time near Contreras or Realmuto. There is only one other three year deal and that was Vazquez. Are catchers valued in trade or free agency? It doesn’t seem like it. It might be foolish but I would make a qualifying offer to Jeffers. He might take it. I would also make a 3 year offer with the starter at 3/45. There might be motivation to take it. The first few months of return from this injury is often matched with poor offensive and defensive performance. Boris has to be considering Jeffers’ value if he returns and has an OPS of .600 the last two and a half months with shaky defense. They might be wise to take that contract before he returns.

I am all in for watching baseball game where the winning team wins by 1. Even better if it is low scoring though it means neither team found much offense. There have been a lot of close games recently. That why I watch. Entertainment. Of course I would want Buxton to hit a walk off single. Single or pop up doesn’t change the previous 2+ hours of engagement.

So he probably won’t take the qualifying offer. That still leaves the possibility of a pick. I saw that 81% of players with the hamate injury returned to their previous level of performance. I don’t see that parsed out for catcher. If he struggles to end the season upon his return as many do I think it will impact his free agent value.

The 4th option has always been a little bit of a mystery to me. The 4th option can be granted if a player has exhausted 3 and had less than 5 full seasons. Rodriguez was in the GCL. That was not a full season. The 5 others were injury filled so he might make it in there. A full season is defined as spending at least 90 days on an active professional (Major or Minor League) roster. If a player spends time on the Injured List, that time does not count toward the 90 days unless it was preceded by at least 60 days on the active roster. Would this year be a full season if he doesn’t return early enough or at all? How about 2022, 2024 or 2025? He only needs to find one to qualify.

That healing wrist is going to have to catch 120+ balls a game. His defense is not going to return in top form either,

Do you think there is a difference between the abilities Caratini and Jeffers to manage a game? I don’t disagree about the randomness of cERA with the many variables that impact it. I do believe there can be significant differences in the ability of catchers to manage a game with a pitcher.

I wonder how much trade value he would have if any. Catchers are going to have a harder time returning from this hamate injury. @NYCTK pointed out Francisco Alvarez returned in 7 weeks after the March 8 injury. He returned with poor offensive and defensive performance. He wasn’t back until he was optioned out and returned July 21. Teams will be looking to this comp. A similar start date for return to success for Jeffers would be September 30. The best option may be to retain and make a qualifying offer. Trade offers might not be any better and wouldn’t give the flexibility of more dollars in the draft. The market for Jeffers may even cause him to take the offer and go out and prove he is healthy next year.

Good find. That would put a possible early return of July 6. I wonder if the coming all star break might motivate the Twins to push it to after the break. Alvarez also matches your comment about performance. Alvarez had a first half OPS of .652 and a second half OPS of .921. His prolonged offensive and defensive slump caused the Mets to option him to the minors to rest and reset 8 weeks after his return. He came back after that month down and put up excellent numbers. I wonder if the results would have been different they had been more cautious and given him a few more weeks initially or DH’d him upon his return. In reality they didn’t get back the major league catcher they needed until July 21 a little more than 19 weeks after the injury. A matching time span for Jeffers would be September 30.

Is it different for catchers? It seems like a burden on the wrist of the catching hand. Would that impact the recovery time and the performance once returning to play?

By my eyes I believed Jeffers is better at handling pitchers than Caratini. I would even said the difference is significant. I went to Fangraphs and Jeffers is a -1 for his cERA and Caratini is a +1. Yikes! My eyes must be way off. Sure enough Jeffers has a catcher ERA of 4.59 with Caratini at 3.88. Will the staff be in better hands with Caratini taking more of the load? Not satisfied I looked deeper to see if anything was skewing the data. Could it be one bad game? In my mind I trust Jeffers much more than Caratini. I looked at the four starters that have pitched the most. Their batters faced is much more than any other pitcher. Here is what I found. Catcher Name PA OPS Caratini Bailey Ober 89 .787 Jeffers Bailey Ober 143 .553 Caratini Joe Ryan 93 .485 Jeffers Joe Ryan 110 .672 Caratini Simeon Woods Richardson 44 1.237 Jeffers Simeon Woods Richardson 159 .893 Caratini Taj Bradley 76 .811 Jeffers Taj Bradley 123 .566 Abel, Prielipp , Matthews and Rojas were not included. Caratini has been his only catcher with an OPS against of .726. Jeffers has almost all of Prielipp's PAs with an OPS against of .592. Jeffers was the catcher for Matthews' start (.408) and the catcher for the vast majority of Rojas (.631) and his one start. Caratini has the edge on Joe Ryan. Ryan is the pitcher coming into the season that needs the least help from a veteran catcher. Jeffers has the advantage with the three others and the advantage is a significant one. Jeffers cERA is tremendously skewed. Look at SWR and PAs. While SWR has been better with Jeffers those 159 PAS completely distort the cERA and Jeffers' resulting Fangraphs defense grade. It would not be hard for Fangraphs to calculate this skew in and give a more accurate number. They need to do better. Alternatively they might throw cERA out of the calculation completely. In this case it gives the completely wrong picture of Jeffers behind the plate. I don't think my eyes are mistaken. Jeffers has done a great job of handling our young staff. I hope his work with them these two months will have a lasting impact on their development. Data

I am glad they were willing to DFA Topa even though they took him to arbitration. I argued that they shouldn’t take him to arbitration because they will stick with him too long if he doesn’t pitch well. Glad to be wrong.

Abel probably could go on 60 day. I think the return date would be around June 12 and I don’t think he has thrown from the mound yet. He is going to need a full rehab before returning. Acton is also a 60 day candidate.

That was a fantastic and encouraging outing from Kendry Rojas. I think it was important to put Jeffers behind the plate for him. Jeffers has been so valuable to the development of this pitching staff.

The Twins are very fortunate to have Clemens on the team. He plays several positions well. He runs the bases pretty well. His bat is at least near league average. He is prearb. His bat and glove probably fit best as a 2B but his positional flexibility really helps. He hasn’t been used at 3B by the Twins but they have had Lewis and Castro. I wonder if his glove is as solid there as it is at 1B, 2B, LF and RF. League average wRC+ is 94 this year and 96 last year. His bat is a fit. Last year the Twins had a hole at 2B when Keaschall was out and he started there. Keaschall returned and the hole became 1B so he played there. He had a few stretches where he filled holes in the outfield. All teams need players that can fill holes. The Twins have a hole at 1B. They should fill it. Clemens will still get plenty of playing time. He could help fill at 3B and possibly 2B. This weekend Kreidler and Outman were starting outfielders. He could have helped there.

Doesn’t ERA need multiple years of a starter to stabilize? It doesn’t seem like it should be a factor in a decision after 21 innings. I would hope that they are also looking at things like chase rate and swinging strike rate. Both of those are below his major league career numbers while in AAA this year.

With Bradley returning I would think Woods Richardson is in the pen. Laweryson will return soon. Sands is not far behind. That is 3 spots in the pen. Is it wise to add Bowman? Maybe if it is short term help for tonight’s bullpen game.

Is this news today? What is the source? Shelton was asked yesterday and he was removed during a long inning with a 10 pitch at bat and 12 pitch at bat. He finished his 65 in the pen. Shelton said he was healthy and fine.

This seems like an argument why he should be a reliever. Starters need to be very solid against the opposite side batter. The line up will be stacked with them. Does “giving up the idea” mean he is no longer working on it since he is in the majors and it is harder to work on a new pitch? Doesn’t findings that pitch against lefties also help him if he returns to starting?

They have some time (Wednesday?) to make a decision on Bowman I wouldn’t add him because I fear they stick with him for a while if they make that commitment. Laweryson will soon return. Bradley will need a spot. Sands is early June. I am keeping Woods Richardson over Bowman. Two pitchers will likely need to be moved by the end of the week. I would pick from Garcia, Topa and Banda.

Clemens is also defensively solid at 2B. The league average at that position is 98. It is 116 at 1B. Of course these are useless comparisons. The Twins need Clemens at 1B. He is a better defender than Keaschall at 2B so maybe they should flip but he is almost certainly the better defender at 1B. I wonder if Clemens could play a league average 3B. I don’t think I would give a roster spot to Fedko. His strikeout rate is a career high. His walk rate is a career low. I can only compare chase rate and swinging strike rate with last year AAA but they have both moved in the wrong direction. His BABIP is greater than every of his lines with the exception of a shorter stop for 2022 Fort Myers. Slash stats need a huge sample. If this years were combined with strike out and walk rates moving in the correct direction combined with a BABIP in line with career I would trust them a little more. Sabato has similar strikeout and walk rate concerns. I can see a future as a bench short sided platoon bat for Fedko. He can run the bases and play around the outfield and 1B. He even started at 2B twice. Sabato is no help on the bench. He needs to hit well enough to be a major league starter at 1B or DH to have a spot. McCusker was somewhat similar. He really only helps with a big bat. If they want to give Sabato a shot I would be more comfortable with a future DFA if he doesn’t work out.

I am not as sure about Bowman. His ERA looks nice but it is 21 innings that are influenced by a low home run rate that needs a large sample and a high LOB rate. His swinging strike rate is 7.1% which is lower than his career major league average of 8.6%. A veteran ought to be able to fool AAA hitters more often. Marco Raya is on the opposite end of the “luck” numbers with a high home run rate and a low LOB rate. His swinging strike rate is 13.8%. I am not saying he is ready. Laweryson had his first rehab appearance yesterday. I think he is up by Friday. If they call up Bowman now he won’t be the one they send down Friday. I fear he would get a longer run.