jorgenswest

I don’t think all three of Julien, Outman and Kreidler will make the roster. I think each of the three needs to show promise of their upside in team spring training. All teams have a roster crunch as they set their rosters at the end of spring. I don’t think it is a high risk of losing them to waivers unless they have a strong spring. If that happens the Twins will roster them. I also don’t like projections because I don’t believe players are fixed in their skills. Players with less than 1500 at bats may take a significant step. While spring training stats are pretty useless I don’t believe spring training is useless. The staff has eyes on these players in workouts and drills for several weeks. Any player who finished in AAA last year ought to have a chance to win a job in spring. Players who performed poorly last year should have to show something in spring training to earn a job. It is hard to imagine all of Julien, Kreidler and Outman will have a strong spring.

This year four starters with two years of control in the top 10 of ESPN’s off season trade candidate rankings. Skubal, Ryan, Lopez and Gore have not moved yet. Maybe it is too early and free agency needs to be sorted out and the offers will get better later in the winter. Maybe the offers for that extra year of service time don’t come near meeting the value. Two years of Skubal has more than twice the excess value compared to his last year as his salary will increase. I wonder if the offers don’t reflect that excess value. The Twins have more FV45 or better players than any other team. They are missing that top flight talent of FV55 or better. If the trade offers are multiple FV45 and 50s instead of that elite talent they lack I support their decision to hold onto Ryan.

Is that looking at the range in any year? I think the long length of the schedule would tend to shrink that range. I wonder what the year to year variance in winning percentage is for each team. I guess the 162 would impact that also. Would looking a playoff participation over the last 10 years be helpful? Is the ratio of playoff teams close enough to make that work? I would think a more competitively balanced league would have fewer teams with near 100% or 0%.

Intriguing. I don’t know how to think about a league’s competitive balance. How would we measure the degree of competitive imbalance? Variance in Wins? Playoff success? Would the year to year variation of teams in a league with more competitive balance be greater?

I don’t get the binary of all in and going for the World Series or bust thinking. Baseball is a great game and almost every year we are guaranteed 162 games. I enjoy watching Ryan pitch for the Twins and every game he starts gives them a better chance to win than who ever happens to be the 5th starter at the time. Those 162 is why I watch baseball. It isn’t the dream of a pennant.

For a few years I kept hearing on this site that Buxton was unhappy though I don’t think there was ever a direct quote from him that he wanted out. I don’t think we have that from Ryan either. I saw quotes related to Gray and the decision to right size payroll. I don’t see unhappiness in those comments. He simply spoke the truth.

He might. He risks injury in the next two years that could significantly cut into his next contract. The injury risk is on the Twins also dropping his trade value. I think there is a contract structure possible that the Twins can afford and Ryan can accept. Your numbers might be in that ballpark. For the Twins the value of this deal would go beyond Ryan. It would show both the players in the clubhouse and the fans that they are committed to putting out a competitive team now and down the road.

If there is a surplus of major league quality starting pitching they have a need for those arms in the pen where there is a deficit. I wouldn’t be actively trying to trade starting pitching. I would be actively trying to trade at least one corner outfielder.

Vientos does little to help the bench. He doesn’t run well. He doesn’t play a position well or have positional flexibility. He either hits well enough to start at make up for a bad glove at 3B or he will be a journeyman. While his OPS and wOBA dropped significantly from 2024 to 2025 his xwOBA based on the quality of his contact did not. It dropped from. .331 to .319 which was one point off his career mark entering the season. I suspect he is better than last year but his talent is closer to the 2025 numbers than the 2024 numbers. The Twins do have a back up at 3B with the addition of Bell in Kody Clemens. Clemens quality of contact was better than Vientos and he adds better positional flexibility as well as better base running to contribute from the bench.

Each draft is unique. McCarty’s year was one of the worst for talent taken at the top of the draft. Two player in the top 10 picks has a career WAR over 10 and it isn’t much over 10. Two guys of ten had some regular play in the majors. Banks’ year was better with 3 of 10 having more than 10 career WAR. Still four of the top 10 never played in the majors. Griffey was gone by their pick but they could have gone with the lower ceiling and taken one of the three college pitchers that went picks 4 to 6. Let’s hope the top 10 in this year’s draft produces more impact players than the 1987 and 1991 drafts.

Let’s hope he is one of the league best at challenging ball calls and turning them into strikes. Will there be catchers with an elite ability to challenge calls and others poor? If one catcher is hitting 70-80% and another is around 40% those additional strikes are really going to help as well as being able to retain the challenge. I haven’t seen any AAA data on individual catcher success rate. I have seen data that catchers as a group have had more success than pitchers as a group. I wonder if there will be a positive correlation between those that frame well and those that challenge or maybe a negative correlation as they are already getting a higher rate of favorable calls.

I could sit here and rant about the move. I didn’t want another 1 year stop gap solution at first base. Bell is a Twin. For me the healthy choice to look forward and be hopeful. I have been interested in how the previous season xwOBA might be a better predictor for the next season than the previous season slash stats. Among the 40 first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances Bell’s xwOBA was 9th with Harper and Olson in front of him and Contreras and Freeman behind him. Bell’s xwOBA was .359. Buxton led the Twins with an xwOBA of .348. Note: Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

Looking forward and trying to find hope in the Bell signing. He did make a change in his swing. That change could explain his early season struggle with the adjustment as well as his good second half. I look forward to seeing the fruits of those changes with the Twins.

I am all for the Twins trading prospects like Ruiz. I would argue a bunch of 1-2 WAR seasons aren’t going to replace a Cy Young candidate starter in the playoffs.

Sorry. I was commenting on your post about the Brewers. I must have misunderstood it.

Did they trade them as early as the Twins traded Duran, Varland and Jax? It seems like they trade them with 1 year of control or 1+ years at the deadline in a season they didn’t make the playoffs similar to the Berrios deal. The Brewers and Guardians do a good job of maximizing and utilizing the peak value of their players before trading them. The Twins did that with Berrios. They didn’t with Duran, Jax and Varland. The Brewers received 9 players for Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Josh Hader. I only see one that had even 1 WAR on the roster last year in Caleb Durbin. He is a solid player but a 101 OPS+ at 3B isn’t a difference maker. Contreras was acquired for a prospect in a three team deal. Yelich was acquired for prospects. Peralta was acquired a decade ago for a one year rental in Adam Lind that would be similar to the Twins trading Bader. Who are the other 6 players acquired in deals for players like Ryan or Lopez or Buxton? Do the Brewers need to keep their impact players to get to the World Series? They had control of Burnes in 2024. In season he would have helped get them the bye. Then he starts game 1 of the divisional series against a team that probably can’t go with their number 1 or 2. Do they make the World Series if they keep him? They need impact players to win the World Series. Their return of DJ Hall and Joey Ortiz hardly seems worth losing a season of a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

The path to a rebuild by tear down is more difficult if not possible than last decade. The Astros and Orioles didn’t rebuild by trades. They had the number 1 or 2 pick and the associated dollars to split among all of their picks. The draft lottery has closed the door on that route. Last decade there were some blockbuster trades with prospect hauls. The Royals received a top flight prospect, two other prospects in the top 100 and Lorenzo Cain who had a solid two month debut in the majors in 2010. The Yankees received a top flight prospect in Gleyber Torres , a top 100 prospect, major leaguer Adam Warren and another prospect for a rental reliever in Aroldis Chapman. The Twins traded away three post seasons of Duran and didn’t get near the return. It took 5 years of control to pry away De Vries. If teams aren’t going to trade top flight prospects and you can’t go with the be awful and get the number 1 pick plan then I wouldn’t go with the tear down plan. Those plans rely on a higher likelihood of getting an impact player. There really isn’t much that separates the 250 or so FV45 to FV50 players. The Twins do have a plan. It was to trade three very good under control relievers and replenish their prospect pool. As a result no one had more FV45 players or better than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates. For the plan to work they need to build a respectable bullpen from their large group of unproven starters and a few impact players need to emerge from their many good but not top flight prospects. It probably won’t work but I don’t think it is less likely to work than the tear down.

I don’t know about Mountcastle. Last year was really bad and the Orioles must not have felt he will return to his 2023 levels. It doesn’t appear to be bad luck. Even if he performs at his 2024 levels it will be below average for a 1B though above league an average for a hitter. Last year of the 40 first basemen with at least 300 PAs he ranked 39th. To get to the middle and 15th he would need a wRC+ of 123. The only year he reached that level was 2020 and his rookie season. His next best was 113. I would trade prospects for Mayo. I don’t have access to BTV but I wonder how Emmanuel Rodriguez would compare. I think he might even be higher given his positional value.

I would only trade assets for multiple years of control. Mayo is the only option here.

They had a stretch of drafting bat first players. Keaschall arm strength was an issue before his injuries. He was a questions to stay at 2B when he was drafted. Julien couldn’t find a position home in college. He moved around the infield looking for a fit. Steer looks like 1B is his only position. It is the same for Encarnacion-Strand. Almost all major league second basemen started as shortstops in the minors. They were good shortstops in the context of college or the low minors. None of these players were full time shortstops in the minors. Keaschall and Steer player there one season but that was more out of necessity. Coaching defense will only get these players so far. Is Keaschall’s arm adequate in the outfield? If not does he have enough bat to be a 1B? I hope so. He could be a multiyear solution at 1B. Can Martin play 2B well if Keaschall can handle left? One other player shouldn’t be left out of the middle infield discussion. The Twins already have a 2B on the roster that had a bat and glove last year that was above average for the position. Kody Clemens wRC+ was 95 while major league second basemen had an overall wRC+ of 90. His OAA and DRS are both positive for last year and his career at 2B. Last year his OPS as a Twin against right handed pitching was .797 which is far above the league OPS for a 2B. Mix that with an above average glove at 2B and that has to help the team win games.

Catcher Wilson Ramos at 16 for 27,000. For context top bonuses at the time were over 2 million. Top catcher that class was Jesus Montero who signed for 1.65 million.

Good find. Escobar was the #12 prospect in 2010. They also received Odorizzi who was #69. Jeffers also made top 100 lists. Cain is not listed as ever making a top 100 list but he had a solid few months with an OPS of .763 before returning to the minors with the Royals the next year and showing some power he hadn’t previously shown. I just don’t think those kinds of trade happen in this decade. Not only did the Royals get an elite prospect but they received two other top 100 players and Cain who significantly outperformed his prospect status. If the Twins can get that elite level prospect plus another I am in. The Twins don’t need to trade right now to get a guy like Cain as a Brewer. They need to identify someone who is going to be a lot better than his prospect ranking as they did Joe Ryan and like the Royals did with Cain. I am not saying never trade Buxton or Ryan. I just need the return to be someone in that #12 range plus more. I said the same thing about Duran. I don’t want them to settle for a couple of FV50 or FV 45 players. They can’t wait to make that deal.

The 162 matter to me this year much more than the tiny chance trades could turn the roster into a World Series winner down the road. It wasn’t trades that turned the Astros into a World Series winner. It was high draft choices after several awful years. The Orioles went the awful year path and had the several top draft choices. No rings yet and that path has been shut down with the draft lottery. When was the last time a team tore it down completely and then rebounded to win the World Series via players they acquired in trade? It certainly wasn’t the Astros. They needed those top draft picks. The Twins need right handed outfielders. They plan to play aggressively and need speed. The inexperienced pitchers need defense behind him. Why not keep a player at his peak value and enjoy more of the 162?

A bone spur is often caused by repeated stress in younger people. If that repeated stress on his left wrist was playing first base then what is to stop it from occurring again. He didn’t start playing 1B regularly until 2024 and then wrist trouble. In 2023 he was a right fielder and was drafted as a two player. The reports are that he is athletic enough to be a right fielder and he certainly has the arm. That might need to be his position. He really crushes the ball. His exit velocity in AAA is a notch above Wallner with similar strike out rates but he is doing it at 20 years old. The Twins need this bat. I would be really cautious about putting that repeated stress on his wrist though unless they have determined the cause was from a different source and that source isn’t his violent swing. The Twins need a great bat more than they need a 1B. Trade for him. Put him in RF or DH and bat him in the middle of the line up. Hope his wrist holds up. This is from Stanford Medicine’s Amy Ladd M.D. as reported by NBCSports Bay Area.

The Giants report he is expected to recover from his October surgery by spring training. They went in a did a clean up. What caused the problem? Is that fixed? Is he going to be able to handle the force of the number of throw a first baseman takes on that wrist? Is his normal going to be wrist pain with the workload of a first baseman?