jorgenswest

Any starters that are relievers this year are not locked into a relief role. That transition back to starter can even happen during the year. There are several starters that appeared in the all star game last year that were relievers. Abel has 43 AAA starts. Last year he was extremely effective in both Lehigh Valley and St. Paul. He needs to be in the major leagues facing major league hitters. Festa has 25 AAA starts pitching effectively. Matthews dominated in his AAA starts last year. They both need to be facing major league hitters. If Prielipp dominates in the spring he needs to be facing major league hitters. Those are four really good arms that give me hope for the bullpen this year. Maybe one of them takes a spot from Bradley or Woods Richardson. If that happens I have hope for them in the bullpen also.

I just read a 2021 study in recovery of players following arthroscopic wrist surgery. This next part seemed relevant. Eldridge is a right handed thrower. His surgery was on his left wrist. Note: quotes were taken from the Discussion portion of the report.

Beyond his individual value to the 2026 season Jeffers may bring additional value. The Twins have a lot of young pitchers. Does his experience offer value in developing those pitchers? Does that value offset a few FV40 prospects?

Very True. This probably belongs somewhere else. They may want to move salary to get under their team set limit.

If there is a plan the Twins are in uncharted territory. They traded three key bullpen pieces and Correa off of the 2026 roster. Can they rebuild that bullpen among the many young starters they have? Will their experiment with the three day rest longer outing from the pen something they will use from their bullpen this year? The Brewers trade off bullpen arms and replenish with inexpensive pieces that they get from DFA trades, waivers claims and prospects. They don’t so it all at once though. That territory is uncharted. The key is the Correa dollars combined with the savings of nearly 11 million that Jax and Duran are earning this year. Do they reinvest that money in the team? They reinvested the Berrios dollars in Gray and that turned out well for them in the 2023 playoff run. My biggest question is the commitment from the owners. Small to mid market teams need to be out front on change. They can’t win by following the path of large market teams. I am happy to go with the bullpen experiment but they need a middle of the order bat. As of the 2025 update in Fangraphs no one has more FV45 or better prospects than the Twins. Will they use some of that prospect capital and saved salary dollars to acquire a bat?

Did Kelbert Ruiz just become a bad contract in the eyes of the Nationals? Do they need him and Ford? I think his contract has 5 years and 35 million left (5,5,7,9,9). His concussion issues make him a real risk. The Twins would need a pretty good player and the Nationals would need to take on some salary.

It would have been nice if they could have turned one of their three relievers they traded at the deadline into Ford. I guess the difference is the age of Ferrar and the number of years on control compared to the Twins trio. He also meets the Mariners need of a lefty which the Twins couldn’t provide. I would bet on Ford over Tait but I get why the Mariners were seeking a younger pre arb lefty as the price for Ford. I wonder if they could have made a Ford for Prielipp deal this winter without adding to much to the deal. At this point they really need Prielipp also. The Twins surplus is a guy like Rodriguez but that might not fit what the Mariners were seeking.

I do appreciate that they didn’t trade Kepler when he had two years of service time for a couple of middling prospects. He was one of their WAR leaders among position players in 2023 and was critical to their success that led to their first series win in two decades. The Twins acquired Duran in a rental deal for Escobar. The acquired Ryan in a rental deal for Cruz. Unless they are going to get someone in the top 15 to 20 of the FV55-70 group they were wise to wait until the deadline. In the 2025 updat there are 252 players that are FV45-50. It matters most that they identify the ones that will outperform that future valuation rather than feeling the pressure to deal early. I would add that I also appreciate the deal for Berrios where they sold his 1+ year of control in a lost season. The key to that deal was reinvesting and acquiring 2 years of Gray who fit in that same salary range. They moved 1 useful year of Berrios for 2 of Gray added two promising players and a comp pick while losing Petty. Those three deals and retaining Kepler all mattered for the 2023 success. For me each game this season matters. If someone wants to give them an elite prospect I won’t argue otherwise I look forward to seeing Ryan, Lopez and Buxton in a Twins uniform this year.

Is fWAR a good tool to measure value at catcher? If that catcher is also playing DH there will be a significant negative hit to his positional value and ultimately his fWAR. If it is possible to parse out fWAR while playing catcher then playing time will be a factor if a team chooses to rotate catchers. I do know that over the last three years Jeffers has a wRC+ of 117. That would be 5th among qualified catchers over that time but that doesn’t take into account some catchers with very good bats have joined the league in the last two years. Last year his wRC+ of 113 ranked 11th among players where catcher is their primary position. His defense is below average but I really don’t think he is a below the median catcher. I will concede the point to avoid arguing whether he might be just above or just below. I do believe he is vastly better than the catchers that the Twins would be able to acquire to replace him given the resources they are willing to spend. That pool of catchers may be outside the top 50.

Would Jeffers be beneficial to developing the pitching staff? Does it make a difference going into the season that he knows most of the pitchers? Does that have enough value to wait until the deadline? I don’t know the answer to these questions but I do know that this is a team sport. Players have value beyond the stat line. There is the unmeasured value of how much they contribute to the growth and success of their teammates. i certainly would not be in the “take the best offer you can get” mode with Jeffers. Short of being blown away, I think I would treat him as if he just signed a one year deal and let him help the team and contribute to the development of the pitching staff until the deadline.

I would love for them to acquire a 1B that is set in the position for a few years. I don’t think you can find that in the under 15 million dollar range. They either need to spend or develop that pre arb player themselves. They can’t develop a 1B if they keep dipping into the one year team friendly free agent bin. Short of acquiring a fixture I would go with the options they have now. There is some hope in Clemens in that he underperformed his contact numbers last year. There is some hope in Roden who played 1B/OF in college and has a strong track record of hitting in the minors. I think the fixture is Keaschall. His defense at 2B was questionable before the two injuries. I guess it will take time to know if his bat works there but he will have a major league career because of his bat. If his bat isn’t enough at first it probably isn’t enough for a poor defensive 2B. At 2B the Twins could play Martin opening up space for Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins or Gonzalez in the outfield. They also could play Clemens until Culpepper arrives. Clemens is solid defensively at 2B also and ultimately appears to be a good fit on the bench with his ability to play 5 positions.

Should we be concerned about his BABIP last year which was much higher than his career BABIP entering the season? Any concern that his xBA and xSLG are much lower than his actuals likely driven by BABIP?

I do appreciate Rosenthal’s report that the Twins do not plan on trading Ryan. Lopez and Buxton. That is the public position they should be taking. He adds that it will take an overwhelming offer to get any of the three. It should take an overwhelming offer. I don’t expect they will get that offer.

Wouldn’t the odds be based on how the expect people to bet ? If the bettors believe the Twins are going to trade from Ryan, Lopez and Buxton then wouldn’t they have to set the line accordingly?

Would part of the Vegas line be the expectation that the Twins were likely to trade from the core?

What does a viable late inning reliever look like? The Mariners had a long stretch of trading away their late inning relievers including Sewald their closer in a year they were buyers. The Brewers trade away their late inning relievers as they become expensive. Neither sign established viable late inning relievers. The Guardians don’t sign viable late inning relievers. Look at their projected bullpens. All 24 of these players were acquired in prospects in trade or waiver claims or DFA pick ups or low draft choices or minor league free agents signings or minor trades. They do not use any prospect resources or free agent dollars to build their pens. There is one player of the 24 with a significant contract in Munoz and his AAV of 7 million. I should not that Clase comes in next with a 5 year 20 million dollar contract (AAV of 4 million) though he is not on the projected roster. Maybe this is how the Guardians, Mariners and Brewers do it. They gather a bunch of good inexpensive arms and it works itself out.

@Road trip and @jmlease1 I appreciate the correction. I looked at the league splits and made an incorrect assumption. The positions where plate appearances from left handed batters outnumbered plate appearances from right handed batters are outfield and first base. At catcher and the other infield positions it isn’t close. There were far more plate appearances from right handed batters than left handed batters. I don’t know why players like Wallner and Larnach happen to bat left handed, throw right handed yet don’t play on the dirt. I was wrong in my assumption for the cause. The observation that the abundant source of left handed at bats is going to come from the outfield and first base is still supported by the league splits of left vs right by position. If the Twins want to find left handed at bats look to corner outfield and first base. note: Clearly switch hitters are ideal but I hope they were excluded from the data. Since it is a split option I think they were excluded. Looking at the totals I believe they were excluded. It would have given the data a skew towards my observation about corner outfielders that I did not want because it would shown an even greater disparity between left handed and right handed at bats for a corner outfielder. I also have a winder that I have not pursued. Is the centerfield position a landing spot for athletic left and left ballplayers?

Left handed batters are most often left handed throwers. That really limits their positional flexibility. If they are athletic they could be a fit in centerfield. If they have good feet and hands they could play on the dirt at first base. The rest are destined to corner outfield and DH. There is good news for them on the other side of the coin. Catchers and infielders other than first base need to throw right handed. More often than not they also hit right handed. @Riverbrian highlighted the value of the left handed batters. The most abundant source for that left handed bat is going to come from the corner outfield positions.

One argument is injury. I sure hope the Twins don’t start making decisions based on the worry of injury. There is no way to build a team if you are trading away players as they begin to reach their peak for fear of injury. Doesn’t it work both ways anyway? Will they get a guarantee that the players they acquire in trade will be injury free? The other argument is peak value. Here is a list of the FV50s from 2022. What is the chance of having an impact player fours years later? Let’s suppose they received two of these players. There are a handful of impact players in there. There are some that will be major league regulars for a while hovering around average play. There are a lot of players that have used up their options and we are still not sure. There are others that just aren’t going to make it. Four Twins are on the list in Martin, Lewis, Winder and Miranda. Would you take a random grab bag of two from that list? If we had to pick the best at that moment we might take Miranda as he was trending up while Martin and Lewis were trending down. Winder was at peak value. Future Twins Jose Salas and Diego Cartaya also made the list. It is possible to hindsight a trade and find a trading partner. I would go with Oakland’s two catchers. Hindsight is so wonderful. If you made it this far take a look at the 45s and 45+s. You can get that a couple of that level player and better at the 2026 deadline like the Twins did getting Martin(50) and Woods Richardson(45) for Berrios. It might be two FV45s by the deadline odpf 2027. You will find some good hindsight picks in there also. I would make a deal with the Twins where I see Ryan, Duran, Woods Richardson, Wallner, Steer, Henriquez, Canterino and Balazovic. Ryan and Duran would be a wonderful hindsight return. The reality of the prospect curve is that there are so many FV45s and FV50s with not much separating the perceived future value of those 252 prospects. Hitting on a deal from the group of 84 FV50s isn’t that different from hitting from the group of 168 FV45s. Maybe that is why the Guardians and Brewers wait. The Marlins didn’t wait and the return for Luzardo already looks dismal as both prospects have dropped in value. They won 79 games last year. I have to believe they are over .500 and contending for a playoff spot a most of the year if they keep Luzardo and his 5.3 fWAR. Now go look at the top 10. It would be hard to miss. Trade Ryan right now and you really need to get a can’t miss guy. Deal Ryan if they can get someone from the top end of the current list. Otherwise wait. There are a lot of misses in there. The key for the Twins is identifying greatness from that large group of good prospects that contains more misses than hits. Identifying that impact players from the large group of good is so much more important than the date of the deal.

I would deal now for a great prospect. I would not deal for multiple good prospects. There is a big difference from a number 50 prospect and someone around number 10. I would guess that in the curve of prospects a number 50 is more similar to number 200 or 250 than number 10. The only way you trade two years of service time is for that elite prospect. The problem is that teams aren’t moving those players anymore. I see a handful of great prospects in positions of need on teams that might be a willing trade partner. Basallo, Miller, McLean, Painter, Lombard and Eldridge. If somehow the Mariners or Tigers are going for it that would add a few more names. If they can’t get one of those players I wait and see if we are sellers at the deadline. I appreciate the Brewers and Guardians organizations. They do trade players before they hit free agency. They don’t trade players this early. The Marlins have traded a few starters with 2 years of service time. I don’t think anyone would say those deals worked out for them. I wouldn’t follow the Marlins example. Let’s follow the Brewers.

There aren’t many examples of teams winning by tearing it down. The curious thing about the Astros tear down and 50s win seasons was the little impact they received from the trades. The only player on their roster that first 50s win season that was on the 2017 roster was Altuve. They probably had better assets to trade than the Twins. Bourne and Pence were an over 5 WAR players at age 28. Rodriguez was a very good starter and Myers was their closer. None of the players they received in those trades were that winning 2017 roster and several were top prospects. The only asset on that 2017 roster that was acquired in trade was Peacock who was a minor piece in a Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter deal and was coming off a season with a 6.01 ERA in AAA. It was to the Astros benefit that the top prospects they acquired in trade failed. How else would they be so bad for three straight seasons? Their failure to get any value from their trades led to picking up elite players in the draft. The Orioles tried the Astros path. They were awful for four seasons. Only Santander (33 games) from that first bad season made it to the playoff seasons. They traded Machado four 5 prospects. One made It. Dean Kremer. He is a helpful piece (4.26 career ERA) but probably not a pitcher that is going to lead you through the playoffs. The rest did not make it. The traded other assets but the only prospect acquired that was on that first playoff roster was Kyle Bradish. The Orioles turned it around by using the four really bad seasons to get top draft picks and not through the prospects acquired in trades. The Twins can trade off Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers. If the returns are good it will probably help them approach .500. If the returns don’t work out maybe they can get that top spot in the draft for several years and be a contender in 2031 or 2032. By then Keaschall might be the only in left. If the Twins want to follow the path of the Astros and Orioles they need to be awful the next three or four seasons. They have a better chance at being awful if they trade poorly. If they hit on a few players it will probably prevent them from getting that string of top draft picks that led to the Orioles and Astros success. To me the 162 matters. I would not advocate for trading three or four seasons of really bad baseball in hopes that they will draft exceedingly well to build a contender. I am keeping the core at least until this deadline. This season matters.

One key to winning deals of trading veterans is bringing in the prospects and spending to maintain the payroll that should go up some every year. The key to winning the Berrios deal was reinvesting his salary in Gray while getting the two prospects. I think this set of trades will be looked at as a loss in the end. If they are not reinvesting the dollars then the prospects need to match the number of high impact seasons they lost from the players they controlled. It won’t be about sum of WAR. Teams win with players having impact seasons and not a bunch of mediocre seasons.

The Tigers were very successful with many bullpen days after the deadline in 2024. To start August they had Skubal and Montero from their starting rotation. Flaherty was traded. Maeda was in the pen. Mize and Olson were injured. That didn’t stop them from a great last two months of the season to make the playoffs. They lengthened the relief outings of Brieske and Holton. They followed with a second pitcher giving them 3 to 5 innings of length. It worked. The key here was they weren’t fixated on the role of a starter followed by a bunch of one inning relievers. Teams have taken notice. The number of bullpen games were on the rise in the 2024 and 2025 playoffs and teams were winning a majority of those games. Can a team use a series of bullpen games to build up one of their relievers to the rotation? I don’t see why that can’t happen. It might not be the best path. It might be better to have some pitchers in your bullpen that have the pitch mix to see the batting order more than once and then utilizing them with two or three days rest in bullpen games. In any case if Abel doesn’t win a job in the rotation I am not sending him to the minors if he is more ready to get major league hitters out than some guys in my pen. When a starter is needed I would begin with bullpen days in that slot and build him up.

If they need a starter it won’t take that long to be stretched out. They can piggy back some paired combo of Abel, Matthews, Prielipp or Festa a few times in the rotation and go with the more successful one by turn after two weeks. If they are among the best 12 I prefer not to waste their pitches in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt. That is no guarantee to work out anyway if the needed date doesn’t sync up with their rotation schedule in AAA. Before someone comments about the 12 I do realize there are 13. Most teams use that spot to shuttle relievers when the bullpen is overworked. I wouldn’t put one of those four in the last spot in the bullpen that is infrequently used waiting for a blow out. They need to win a job in the top 12.

If Festa, Matthews and Abel have better arms than three currently in the bullpen they should be in the bullpen. They can get AAA hitters out. They need work getting major league hitters out.