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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    This nerd concurs In 2018 players were asked about the stats they valued the most. RBIs were third behind OPS and OBP among the 35 position players asked.
  2. jorgenswest
    The three significant injuries to his right side seem to have destroyed the strength of his back half. He hasn’t been the same since returning from his quad injury on that side in 2024. I can’t imagine the hitting coach he hired this winter advocating for this swing. He needs to trust his back half to be stable and use that base to generate a powerful short path to the fastball. Subconsciously he may be worried about injury to the back half but he needs to risk it.
  3. jorgenswest
    If you are DH only you only help if you hit like Nelson Cruz. I don’t see a healthy replacement though. It is Wallner’s spot to win back if he can get reset. They really need a healthy Rodriguez, Walker and Roden.
  4. jorgenswest
    Would it better to use “as 1B” or maybe league average at 1B? League average as 1B is 115. The problem with average is that it can be heavily weighted by the top of the list and might not match the median. Going by teams as 1B the median is 113.5. It does make me wonder how Clemens would compare to 2Bs. He is a better defender than Keaschall. League average as 2B is 100. Team median is 95.5.
  5. jorgenswest
    Martin and Larnach have earned the full time play in the outfield. I don’t see anyone healthy I would add though. Fedko has a pedestrian 115 wRC+. Sabato has a Vegas driven stat line. Mendez and Ross just made it to AAA. I don’t think it would be wise to add them to the 40 or the 26 in Mendez’ case. Give him more time in AAA. They called up McCusker last year and he was legitimately crushing the ball in AAA. He needed more time but they reduced their roster options once he was on the 40. We need Rodriguez and Roden to get healthy.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins really need Matthews to take this opportunity and claim a spot in the rotation. It sounds like Bradley may not need more than the 15 days. At that point he has to takes Simeon’s spot. Keaschall had another rough night at 2B. He just takes too long to load up the throw. His worry about the throw probably caused him to miss the easy ball on the possible but unlikely double play in the first. The Twins have a better defender at 2
  7. jorgenswest
    You would think it would be 1968. I recalled a game against Gaylord Perry with Jim Hughes pitching and Carew stealing home. My recollection probably comes from reading the account of the 1975 game on SABR. Box score
  8. jorgenswest
    That was fun to watch! Bailey Ober’s last shut out was as a freshman for the College of Charleston against the Citadel in March of 2014.
  9. jorgenswest
    Let’s see if what happened in Vegas stays in Vegas.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would bet on Aaron. I think his writing talent mixed with his knowledge and passion for the Twins will make it regardless of the success of the season.
  11. jorgenswest
    I did not advocate for this role though many teams don’t utilize the 13th position player as a starter very often. I think I would have had Rodriguez in the team playing RF 5 times a week. Taking playing time away from Caratini and Clemens with Bell at 1B. I do have to acknowledge that Outman is 4th on the team in win probability added at 0.12. That only accounts for his stolen bases and plate appearances. Defense and running the bases are not a factor so his impact is probably slightly more.
  12. jorgenswest
    Great defense around the diamond. Great clutch pitching start to finish. Buxton.
  13. jorgenswest
    On the point that it will expedite… I would think that teams would be more hesitant to make a deal and Joe will need to show he is healthy and effective. It may slow trade talk. I really don’t get the lost season mindset. There are 162 games. If you love baseball they all have meaning. The only lost season is a lock out or strike.
  14. jorgenswest
    He still needs to throw from the mound. In any case the only way the Twins are going to get prime years from players is to at least keep them through their 5th year. They are signing premium players in free agency. If they trade Ryan after 4 years they really only get one premium season from him. In his second full season he want trusted in the playoffs. He was injured his third season. Maybe it isn’t the only way. If they are going to trade players with two years of service left then they better maximize the first four. They can do this by keeping players in AAA using options so that they are as close as possible to their prime. They will still need to adjust but maybe you get another premium season. Does it make sense to both advocate to start the service clock early and then advocate for trading with multiple seasons of control? The Marlins are the team that trade with 2 or more full seasons of service time. Maybe it will work for them.
  15. jorgenswest
    The left field play has improved and so has his baserunning. His BSR is third on the team behind Keaschall and Outman. I am glad they did not trade him.
  16. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t that 1989 trade be a parallel to a Lopez trade? Viola was now among the highest paid pitchers. You could conceivably take those prospects and then use that money to add a starter in free agency.
  17. jorgenswest
    After the 1986 season the Twins took a risk in keeping Viola instead of trading him with two years of control. So foolish for a last place team to take such a risk. Why not trade him at his peak value? They probably should have traded Gaetti annd Brunansky also. Note: The Twins did extend Viola for two years but that wasn’t until after the 1987 World Series.
  18. jorgenswest
    I really appreciate how Shelton has used Morris. He has outings of 40, 37, 47 and 67 pitches. If he ever needs to go into the rotation he is a few starts from being fully stretched out. It is possible to have a starter in the bullpen without restricting them to the bullpen for the duration of their careers. This isn’t new to Shelton. He used Luis Ortiz as a reliever then starter in 2024 with the Pirates.
  19. jorgenswest
    I concur. I don’t see it is a terrible team though. I do see the bullpen impacting their record. If Kahnle doesn’t cost them a player and can be acquired without giving up a player I would give him a shot. He could return a player at the deadline. I would have Matthews up as well as Festa, Laweryson and Abel when they are ready. I am not sure Klein is ready. Maybe Rojas is ready. Both had time in the majors because they were in the 40 and had a rested arm at that moment of need, Is there anyone else long term shouldn’t be displaced by Kahnle? Is there a better chance of getting something for Kahnle than either Banda, Rogers or Topa? For now I would have Matthews up for Ryan assuming he is on IL. I would have Rojas for Garcia. I would have Kahnle for one of those three. I certainly would have Kahnle for Garcia. I don’t know what the Twins will do and I don’t really need to know. I will see it when they do it.
  20. jorgenswest
    Kahnle’s deal is a little different. He has an upward mobility clause. According to NESN teams have until today to claim him and then the Red Sox have until Wednesday to put him on the roster, trade him or release him. Should the Twins offer anything in trade or hope that he goes unclaimed and the Red Sox release him? I don’t think I would offer anything other than cash. Lou Trivino had an opt out and the Phillies granted him his release.
  21. jorgenswest
    fungible adjective FINANCE & ECONOMICS easy to exchange or trade for something else of the same type and value
  22. jorgenswest
    I think the change came in 2025. It wasn’t a return to college days. He worked to improve his bat speed. It is still below league average but up a couple of ticks. The result was more hard hit balls according to statcast.
  23. jorgenswest
    Outman’s WPA is 4th on the team among position players at 0.18. Wallner’s is last on the team at -0.95. WPA does not include a defensive contribution or taking an extra base (it includes stolen bases) so Wallner’s true contribution to wins is likely worse and Outman’s might be slightly better. Wallner only helps with his bat he needs to hit well above league average to contribute to winning baseball games. He would not help on the bench. Outman’s base running and defense can make a small contribution to winning games in his role on the bench. I am not sure if the Twins can count on Wallner’s return to the clearly above league average hitter the Twins need. I do think the Twins can count on Outman to be a good defender and base runner. I am not here to argue that Outman is the best use of that roster spot. Just here to notice that he has contributed to wins this year. I was not expecting to see the positive WPA. Outman would be exposed in regular play but I don’t think it will get to that point. I think Rodriguez would be in CF if Buxton does on IL.
  24. jorgenswest
    There is a correlation to slugging percentage.
  25. jorgenswest
    Clemens after 74 PAs. best exit velocity on the team (50+ PAs) 5th in EV90 5th on the team in xwOBA at .340 (league average .323) one of three players on the team with a positive DRS and OAA though he isn’t playing his best position of 2B 2nd on the team in stolen bases last on the team in BABIP at .220 9th on the team in OPS and below league average.
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