jorgenswest

Most of the negative defensive WAR value for both Lowe and Bell is the positional adjustment. Bell had a -15.7 DEF value last year because he played mostly DH. Lowe played much more first base which has less negative positional adjustment. Still he was a -13.3 DEF value as well as a negative DRS and OAA. It is not easy for a DH to be better than a 2 WAR player given the huge negative positional adjustment on their WAR. Last year Yandy Diaz had a wRC+ of 121 well above league average and he only had 1.7 WAR in 496 PAs as a DH. I am hoping Jenkins arrives soon. I think Jenkins in RF with Wallner at DH and Bell at 1B has more impact on their overall defense as well as at the plate.

I wondered if Shelton had any experience with using young starters in the bullpen. In Shelton’s last full season Luis Ortiz had a season I can envision among the Twins hopeful starter. Ortiz began the season in the bullpen. In June they needed a starter. In his first three games after relieving he pitched innings 2-6. In his next games he completed 6 innings as the starter and stayed in the rotation. He ended with a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 3.49 ERA as a reliever though that is a little deceiving because he had a bad outing in one of his three bulk inning outings. Ortiz was 25 with a similar prospect pedigree to several of the Twins fighting for a starting spot.

I think a reasonable expectation for Larnach is a player on the fringe of another team’s roster. From the Astros that might be Nick Allen who they acquired in trade after the Braves DFA’d him. His defense at shortstop is very good.

I did notice the article said that the Cards had three left handed hitting outfielders. Romero was their closer after the Helmsley trade and saved 8 games with a 2.10 ERA in that role. He would be a tremendous addition for the Twins.

Is it possible the new leadership will not be so fixed in their thinking about whether pitcher is a reliever or a starter? Some teams would take the best 12 arms. If Abel and Bradley have a better chance of getting batters out than Topa or Orza or Adams shouldn’t they be in the bullpen? The same would go in considering Prielipp and Funderburk. Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that they will never return to starter? In the last two all star games there were at least 13 starters that earlier in their careers had at least one season where they were relievers. They include Tyler Glasnow, Reynaldo Lopez, Chris Sale, Chris Sanchez, Ranger Saurez, Garrett Crochet, Clay Holmes, Tanner Houck, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta. Putting any of the Twin young arms in the major league pen is not going to fix them in that role for their careers. Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that the Twins won’t have a 6th starter ready when someone gets injured? There are teams that will have their 6th starter in the bullpen. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals transitioned twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the World Champion Blue Jays. Even if the Twins stash a 6th starter in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need. A few years ago the Twins had Ober in the 6th spot in AAA. There was a need for a 6th starter but they couldn’t bring up Ober as had pitched too recently so they went with Varland. Someone convince me the Twins should send down Abel or Matthews to AAA even though they have better arms than some in their major league pen. It can’t be that it will keep them from being a starter in the future. It can’t be that they won’t be able to transition to a starter in season. Why send the, down? I know that is what Falvey would do. He’s gone. Why should the current leadership send them down?

Unless they can get Gallen back a starting pitcher would help. I would start with Ober and a lottery ticket. They might prefer Bradley who is similar age and prospect pedigree but minimal success in the majors. Somehow it seems like Lawler is the kind of player the Guardians get.

I don’t know or want to guess what they are going to do. They need to fill seats. That will take winning games. That is a difficult task and I would bet on upside. New young exciting players will also help. Jenkins and Rodriguez would top that list. Imagine the speed and range of their outfield. Martin’s growth their last year makes him a fit also. I would put the best remaining starting arms in the pen. That might mean Bradley, Festa and Prielipp are working late in games. Abel might be a middle reliever. I would stick with the upside of the younger players like Lee and Lewis who struggled last year as opposed to a one year stop gap they both need to be looking in the rear view for Culpepper. I would continue playing aggressive in the basepaths as they did after the deadline. It is unlikely to work. It is the only way to balance trying to fill seats this year by competing in the AL central while devoting playing time to several 27 and under players. I will be watching what ever route they choose. The 162 games matter to me.

Thanks @Cory Moen I appreciate this series of articles.

I don't see why it matters how they got here. I can accept the mutual parting and move on. It doesn’t matter. I care about where they are going and I don’t have a clue. Do they trade Ryan and Jeffers? Do they attempt to extend them? It seems unlikely they will stay the course. I don’t care about where they have been. Where will they go?

Sounds encouraging. I know it is unrealistic to hope it is work at 1B as well as the bat. They should have tried it in the minors if he had the skills necessary. Unlike Larnach there were good reasons he didn’t play 1B coming up. He played CF more in college than RF. His arm works in RF. They weren’t going to take someone they need in the outfield and play him at 1B. Larnach only saw corner outfield in college.

Julien is really going to need to hit well enough to be a DH. I don’t think his glove will ever be adequate. He and Outman have fallen tremendously from 2023. In order to stay Julien needs to get back to that 2023 level. He might do it. Outman’s good glove just needs to approach 90 OPS+ to find a job as a back up centerfielder. I think that is more likely than Julien hitting enough to DH but neither is probable.

The Rockies would have had an early claim in Ohl so there must have been other interest. Julien was headed for DFA unless he really outhit Clemens. It is hard to imagine both being a fit on the bench. Turning two DFAs into a promising prospect is an unexpected move.

The addition of Myers cannot be minimized. He went to the Mets with 5 years of control after having pitched 188 major league innings with a 3.15 ERA. He is far more than a throw in.

Recent reporting has the Giants pulling back in trading Eldridge. They were interested in Gore and Abrams of the Nationals but were unwilling to move Eldridge. It suppose it might be different if Skubal were made available.

Absolutely true. Now they are stuck trying to finish developing one in AAA. This is a win if Cardenas or one of the others is that capable third catcher the next three or more years. Maybe with the opportunity the advance to number 2. It is a risk also. They could lose Jackson at the end of spring and then get an April injury to a catcher. I am OK with the risk.

@Matthew Trueblood Is there any player who has made adjustments that increased bat speed from a similar bat speed and found success? Did it make a difference? I think one player that has been written about adding bat speed is Turang through I don’t know if his swing path was different.

Cardenas or Olivar or maybe Winkel could be battling for third catcher. I don’t know if any of them are close to ready to be a number 2 catcher but the AAA innings behind the plate are best used developing them.

@bean5302 may need to correct me but I believe he was talking about the strategy that Skubal is using. He is testing a rarely used CBA provision that allows players with more than five years of service time to compare themselves not only to past arbitration-eligible players but to everyone in baseball. Ryan will have 5 years plus 33 days of service time.

Rogers has a lot to share. It will be seen and heard differently from a veteran who is out there doing it. The benefit from his experience will be tied to his success as a reliever. His experience isn’t going reap benefits if he is getting shelled every time he takes the mound. He needs to be out there getting guys out.

I think you are spot on as to what the Twins will do. I would have Matthews and Abel in the bullpen. They don’t need to stash their 6th starter and 7th starter in AAA. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He went from the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals transitioned twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the World Champion Blue Jays. Even if by some miracle the Twins remain healthy and they spend the entire season in the bullpen that doesn’t lock them into a bullpen role forever. Several of the starting pitchers that pitched in the all star game the last two years had seasons as a reliever. I would take the 12 best arms. I think it is better for the development of all of those pitchers to face major league hitters.

Do any of Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson, Ober, Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Festa or Prielipp need more time in the minors? I think they are all better off facing major league hitters. The bullpen will be 8 pitchers. The last spot might rotate between Klein and Adams or maybe even Raya. The rest of the spots should go to the 7 best arms. The battle for the bullpen should be wide open and the best late inning options might come from that list of 9 potential starters.

I wonder if the order may be more about getting them through. Once spring training opens and teams can move players onto the 60 day IL the roster crunch will be lessened. Perhaps they thought this was a better chance to get Ohl. I suppose we could see Adams come up in a few weeks.

The Brewers traded Peralta and Myers. Myers has 5 years of control with a 3.15 ERA in 188 major league innings. It wasn’t just Peralta for two FV50 prospects.

Ohl and Pereda

I don’t either. Cardenas and Olivar are younger. They should be getting bulk of time in AAA. Pereda might be more ready in April but Cardenas and Olivar have more upside down the road. I think they keep Jackson through spring training to make sure Jeffers and Caratini are healthy for opening day.