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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Eight games into the AFL season and Mendez has not played first base. The Twins reportedly were working him out at the position in August and September. Perhaps they determined he doesn’t have the tools to play the position. Really not surprising since both Milwaukee and Philadelphia did not play him at first base in the minors and like the Twins they played several of their minor leaguers in those teams at first base. I still hope to see him play there in the AFL but the reality of how hard it is to play any position in the major leagues is setting in. I fear he is destined to be the next Larnach or Wallner for the next 6 years where there will be constant calls for the Twins to move him to first base. Let’s not do that with him. Not everyone has the tools to play first base,
  2. jorgenswest
    I also have a wonder about the Brewer trades, have the they traded key players with multiple years of service time? Burnes had one year left. Williams had one year left. I think Hader one plus the partial season. They traded him with a 4.24 ERA in the season they didn’t make the playoffs. I would like the Twins to follow this model also. They traded Duran, Jax and Varland with too much service time and little if any extra value for that time. If they trade Ryan this winter it will be with more service time than the trades of Burnes, Williams and Hader. Trading Ryan now isn’t the Brewers model.
  3. jorgenswest
    While true that the were not acquired by waiver claim it is mostly a function of their record. If a player is worthy of claiming, teams with good records like the Brewers won’t win the claim. Instead a trade is needed. They built their bullpen largely on players DFA’d by other teams. The give up cash or minor leaguers with little to no prospect status to avoid the risk the claim won’t get to them. The Twins DFA’d Trevor Megill. The Brewers sent them cash and Taylor Floyd. Floyd was a 25 year old reliever in high A with the Brewers. He has since been released by the Twins. They acquired Grant Anderson in trade after he had been DFA’d by the Rangers. Nick Mears had been DFA’d twice before the the Brewers made a trade with the Rockies. He had a 5.56 ERA with the Rockies. One of the players they traded was released by the Rockies. The other was a major leaguer and had a 9.36 ERA in 12 starts for the Rockies this year. Koenig was released by the Padres and picked up a a minor league free agent. The other two relievers in the bullpen were developed by the Brewers. Uribe was an international signing and Ashby a fourth round draft pick. The Brewers spent virtually no capital to build a bullpen. The 4th round pick might have been the most valuable asset they used. That is the Brewers model the Twins must follow. It will take an elite ability to identify and develop pitching talent that is unwanted and unrecognized by other teams.
  4. jorgenswest
    Jon Heyman reported the Twins were specifically interested in Tong this summer in a trade for Duran. The Mets were unwilling to deal two top prospects.
  5. jorgenswest
    Wow! That is rough. The Twins have one player in their system that has better than an FV55/55 for defense in center fielder Rodriguez. There were just seven shortstops in the minor leagues with an FV55/55 for defense according to Fangraphs 2025 update. That was Kreidler’s level in his last prospect report in 2023. I think more minor moves can and will be made.
  6. jorgenswest
    Not enough. Let’s stop with this top 100 stuff as if they are all equal. There are maybe 20 FV 55 and above. After that there are a bunch of FV50, FV45+ and FV45. That gets you to nearly 300 players. The middle of the top 100 is closer to number 250 in future value than number 10. The majority of those players do not make an impact in the majors. Roden was a top 100 going into this season. The Mets have one player that is above FV50 according to Fangraphs. That is the player they need to get and if the Mets aren’t dealing they aren’t a match.
  7. jorgenswest
    I agree. Then they must hang up the phone and keep Ryan. There isn’t anyone else that can headline this deal. The Twins would be fools to take a guy hoping he can develop a third pitch. That guy is destined to be a reliever.
  8. jorgenswest
    Got it. I guess I need to learn how to turn it off in a basic google search. When I search the top part always says from AI.
  9. jorgenswest
    Hey @Mike Sixel I noticed the downvote on the description of the requirements to eligible for a fourth option. Did the downvote mean that I got something wrong there? I would like to fix it if that is the case. I used Google search and copied as I cited so maybe I got something wrong.
  10. jorgenswest
    Concur. The only way to get that top flight prospect is to demand it and not engage in conversations without that prospect.
  11. jorgenswest
    I enjoyed this read on Madden from the Tampa Bay Times. He certainly has some thoughts on the role of the GM and also the balance of analytics. It is three years old but those beliefs probably have not changed. Would he take an interview with the Twins? It seems unlikely.
  12. jorgenswest
    McLean is in another tier compared to the others and there is a significant gap between him and the others. The Twins shouldn’t take calls unless a team is starting with a prospect in that tier. I would prefer a position player but that is a preference. Getting a top flight prospect is more important. The call from the Mets has to start with McLean and then they can negotiate for an added position prospect among the FV50s. If McLean is off the table hang up the phone. They can get FV50s a year from now.
  13. jorgenswest
    He will likely be DFA’d with hope of getting to AAA. His glove is a good one and it keeps him on the fringe of the majors. In his last prospect report it was FV 55/55. It is very difficult to play an average or better major league shortstop and centerfield. He might be able to do both. His OAA over his time in the major leagues support the scouting report. Seems like a good thing to have a depth piece in AAA with a fundamentally solid glove up the middle. Really no risk. Worst case they lose him to another team looking to add depth.
  14. jorgenswest
    I do wonder about Shelton. The Pirates have ranked in the top ten in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs prospect pools. They ranked fourth when he took over in 2020 with six top ten prospects. Cruz has league average wRC+ but moved off shortstop. Much more was expected from a prospect that peaked at number 7 overall. Hayes (peaked at #14) was given 2500 plate appearances and did not approach a league average hitter before they gave up on him. Keller (peaked at #23) has 163 starts with a career ERA of 4.51 and just one season with an ERA under 4. That’s the good news from the 4th ranked group with six in the top 100 that he inherited. The Twins have added to their prospect pool and need a manager that can help get the best from them. Has Shelton shown that he is that manager?
  15. jorgenswest
    Good point. Younger debut age correlates to pitchers that land in all star games so maybe more correlation than causation. In any case Bradley, SWR, Festa, Matthews and Raya already have or can debut in the majors in that 22-24 range. That leaves Prielipp who is in that 25 due to injury group. His fit is Ragans. I don’t think relieving this year will keep him from being a starter in the future. It is those 6 starters that I have in mind. They all can’t join Ryan, Lopez and Ober. I think the best route is to keep all 9. If all 9 are among the best 12 then I want to roster them all. I should note that they need to make the top 12 and not 13. That 13th spot should be shuttled between slightly older prospects that have options. Pitchers like Adams, Ohl and Laweryson would fit if they aren’t in the top 12. Sands and Jax were in that role and pitched their way into a permanent spot. They can do the same.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins look to have more major league ready starters than major league quality relievers. I wonder if damage is done by having them relieve at the major league level rather than start in AAA. Quite a while ago many pitchers started as relievers and moved to a starter. I looked to the all star rosters from the last two years to see if any of those starters spent time in the bullpen earlier in their career. Chris Sale pitched his first two seasons as a reliever. Lugo was a reliever for the Mets. Bubic pitcher from relief last year after returning from injury. Crochet began his career as a reliever. Rasmussen was a reliever. Peralta pitched from the pen. Glasnow was put in the pen by the Pirates after struggling as a starter. Lopez had 4 seasons in relief before returning to a starter in 2024, Ranger Suarez began as a reliever. Ragans was a reliever with the Rangers the season he was traded to the Royals. Holmes was a reliever from 2018-2024 prior to his successful season as a starter this year. Houck was a reliever in 2022 and an all star starter in 2024. I will acknowledge that some of these pitchers changed teams before changing roles. It could be it was their first organization that had their minds fixed on that relief role. I am not convinced we are harming careers by having potential young starters pitch from the bullpen. Some of these pitchers even transitioned from reliever to starter midseason. I would start the 2026 season with the 12 best arms even if it means putting a pitcher capable of starting in the bullpen. I don’t believe pitching from a major league bullpen is going to stop these pitchers from being a starter in the future. The only thing that would stop that from happening is if the Twins management gets fixated on their role and not open to moving them to a starter when an opportunity arises. Tagging @Riverbrian here because he often challenges us (myself included) on keeping an open mind and not be so fixated on roles. Maybe this is not what he envisions though.
  17. jorgenswest
    also Connor Prielipp, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Marco Raya and anyone else they add to the 40. They need to take the best 12 pitchers next year. They shouldn’t worry about keeping a pitcher stretched out. Build up the pitch count with each start.
  18. jorgenswest
    I have a few wonders… Can we expect a repeat in last year’s performance level given his age? If he does decline and the Twins are on the hook for 2 million how long will we wait until he is released? I also wondered about relief pitchers that signed for 2 million last year. Maton amd Raley were pretty helpful to a bullpen. There are others that were helpful at 2 million or below. 2.25 million more and you get Justin Wilson. There were also signings that didn’t work out often due to injury. One thing in common of all of these signings is older age and often injury history. That fits Topa also. Two million is in line with an aging sometimes injury troubled pitcher. Do the Twins bet on Topa or do they look elesewhere in the pool of aging relievers? One thing that may be in the favor of looking elsewhere is other options will likely have a longer track record of success. One thing in favor of keeping Topa is the Twins should be better able to win the bet on his health than on an aging reliever outside the organization. If they question his ability to stay healthy they should move on.
  19. jorgenswest
    It is very difficult to play a passable major league first basemen. It takes good hands and feet. It takes quick reactions. It is the same set of tools found in catchers and infielders which creates a bigger pool of players that can play first base than most positions and maybe leads to the erroneous impression that any major leaguer can play there with work. My guess is that Larnach and Wallner worked out at first base in both college and the minors. When Larnach hit AA the Twins used 9 different first basemen. In AAA it was 12 different first basemen. Wallner was on the same AAA team in 2022. They didn’t try him either. I don’t see how there can be any other conclusion other than they worked out there and didn’t have the necessary tools. There was news recently that the Twins were working Hendry Mendez at first base. That’s a good thing. Maybe he will get a chance at 1B in the fall league. If he is never used there can we assume that he doesn’t have the necessary tools? He has spent time in the Brewers and Phillies organization without any time at 1B. Some guys can’t do it. If he doesn’t get time there I am going to assume the Brewers, Phillies and Twins concluded he doesn’t have the tools to play there. I hope you will join me.
  20. jorgenswest
    Can we all agree that Counsell has made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 seasons including 5 with the Brewers. He has done this in spite of never being a coach or manager previously. Doesn’t that seem pretty relevant to this Hunter discussion?
  21. jorgenswest
    @Parker Hageman Appreciate your thoughts here. The Lewis part had me recalling Hunter’s first years in the majors. He knows what the shoes of a struggling top prospect feels like. He has been in those shoes. He has shuttled back and forth in his first few trips to the majors. I wonder if that will make a difference in working with players in that part of their baseball journey. This along with all of your thoughts make him a worthwhile candidate. I am in. He will need to find an experienced bench coach. He will need to identify a pitching coach that he trusts and gives full control over pitching decisions. He needs the Brian Flores of pitching coaches. I think this can work.
  22. jorgenswest
    It is rare. If Rodriguez qualifies it will be injuries as I said earlier. Did he have 90 days of active service in each of his five full season minor league (one will be 2026)? His first season of complex league ball shouldn’t hit the 90 days. If not he will not have had 5 full seasons and be eligible for a 4th option. I guess I have to do a little more work here. In 2022 he had a season ending knee injury on June 8 after playing 47 games. The first day of the season was April 8. Is he credited with 90 or more days of active service that season? I don’t know how active service is calculated. In 2024 he also played 47 games but he was in and out so counting the days and interpretation of active service isn’t ac clear. In 2025 he played 65 games. That might not have hit 90 either. 2022 is the most clear. I think it is 62 days April 8 to June 8. I don’t see how that gets to 90 days of active service. I think Kennys Vargas is the last position player for the Twins getting a 4th option and playing in the majors.
  23. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the video. I appreciated the insight of the types of players that tend to be kept. I think that has to factor into the Twins decision making. It is very difficult to stash a position player on the roster. How can an outfielder that doesn’t play a major league centerfield be kept unless that player is a starter? Eventually injuries will create a need for that roster spot. It is also hard to take an infielder that doesn’t play a major league shortstop. If a catcher is taken they need to be ready to handle the load of a second catcher. The need for roster spots is a Twin consideration also. Every roster spot given to a player that needs more time in the minors essentially shrinks the 40 man roster. More in season DFAs will result.
  24. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs couldn’t know if he will qualify for a 4th option. In order to qualify the Twins will need to use an option this year and one of his injured seasons has to be less than 90 days of active service.
  25. jorgenswest
    Not sure. His first season in the FCL had 51 games. Would he have accrued 90 days of active service? Seems unlikely. Did injuries prevent him from 90 days of active service in any other season? Maybe.
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