jorgenswest

Glad Ober pitched today.

I guess it makes me wonder if they should shut down any pitcher of value. Why risk an injury to Joe or Pablo? Pablo is just back and Joe has had some rough outing recently. Maybe something is going on with the arm. Maybe shut down some of the young arms too. No reason to risk Tommy John and losing next year. I guess the only thing holding them back is a player needs to be injured to be put in IL. Should they shut down Ober? Sure. If there is an injury.

I didn’t see the indifference. They didn’t barrel up the ball against Wacha. I am not sure it was indifference that held them back.

Do you think they got enough at the deadline? My argument was that teams don’t let go of prospects like they did in the 2010s. It took 5 years of service time of an all star to get a top 10 prospect. Less than 10 years ago it took a rental in Chapman to get that. Look at the prospects that have moved the last few years. The trading environment has shifted. There is a huge difference between a player in the mid 100s on the prospect list to a player in the top 10. If you are only getting FV 45 and 50 players for the very good relievers with 3 post seasons or more of control would you make the deals? Can you build a team on a bunch of guys with a future value of number 4 starter or average position player? The best they received is an FV50 with a high risk of getting there. Is that the foundation for building towards a team that contend for the World Series or is it continuing on the cycle of mediocrity?

In my space up I will take 75 wins over 60 wins next year so then fight for 75. I guess I will at least have to hope for watchable over unwatchable. I have stopped following the games after the starter is removed.

I don’t know how to describe it as a want other than I want them to compete. The Berrios deal set the course for 2023. They moved Berrios for prospects. It wasn’t a salary dump. They took that same salary slot and traded a prospect for Sonny Gray. Gray’s salary slot helped pay for Lopez when he was extended. For the rest of 21 and 22 from Berrios and Chase Petty the Twins received two full seasons of Gray, Woods Richardson, Austin Martin, Francis Peguero and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). Someone argued then that they didn’t have a plan. Why trade a starter for prospects and then trade prospects for a starter? They ended up trade the lost half season of 21 for the full season of 23. Brilliantly done. How can they reinvest the savings in summer’s purge back into the team? They need the right veteran players too. They need to be at the top of the rotation or the top of the line up or late inning relievers. I like the way the Brewers and Mariners have acquired their relievers so preferably they keep Joe and Pablo for this year and trade for a really good bat.

Any new wants for next year?

I don’t how many times I can say I am not making them relievers for the entire year by starting them in the pen. Should I type in all CAPS? There will be injuries and there will be opportunities to start. If they aren’t competing at the deadline that is when I would listen to offers on Ryan or Lopez. They also aren’t locked into relieving in future years. Roster the best 13 pitchers in the roster next year. At least roster the best 12 and plan for a shuttle spot of pitchers like Adams, Ohl and Funderburk in the 13th. If they acquire pitchers to the point that those 8 starters are not among the best 12 I will rejoice. I my mind only Sands is ahead of some of the, now.

To amplify @DJL44 In 2005 Morneau led all first baseman with a positive 3.5 DEF. It was his rookie season. In 2004 and 2006 no first baseman had a positive DEF. No one hands a positive DEF at 1B this year. Positives at 1B are rare. Morneau was again near the best 1B in baseball in 2009 with a -5.7. Derek Lee was at the top with -4.3. Morneau was never near the bottom of the league. In addition just adding in my head Morneau had 106 points deducted due to positional adjustment as a Twins. By DEF we might want to add Nelson Cruz who was -26.6 in just 258 games as a Twin.

I am not turning any of them into career relievers. From my original post. They can approach 40 pitches in their first abbreviated start and build from there. They don’t need to be fixed as relievers just because they start in the pen. Abel has been very good in AAA. I think he is better off in the bullpen facing major league hitters if he doesn’t make the starting rotation. I don’t think any of the 8 gets better by pitching in AAA next year. I also believe they will be among the best 13 pitchers and I am putting the best 13 pitchers in the roster. I wake up every day fighting to be the odds. I expect the Twins will fight to put up their best team possible next year. It is hard for me to grasp any other mindset.

Thanks for playing @The Great Hambino I just want to be clear what you would do. Would you trade one of Pablo or Joe to help them be more competitive next year? Perhaps you said that out of certainty that the Twins will trade one of them and not an interest of being competitive in 2026 or perhaps a desire that they sell off and build for a few years down the road. For this exercise I am only interested in discussing trades Joe or Pablo if that is a path to success in 2026. One of the keys to that success will be is finding new arms for the bullpen whether currently in the organization or not.

In my version the starting staff is solid and they need a bat. I ended with that. I don’t think they can go into the season without adding probably by trade of prospects a reliable arm to the pen. A competitive team is within reach. They can’t do it with a pen full of waiver wire arms to start the season.

My wonder also but we have countless threads to debate that. Thanks for joining in the discussion about rebuilding the pen. I get your point about retreads. I do think they need to trade or spend for a better than retread arm.

How close are they to 14 major league pitchers? I think they need three. I also want upside from the bottom three or four in the bullpen. I don’t want them a 34 year old pitcher in the middle innings role. I want a young pitcher that can grow from the middle to the late innings. Jax went from the last man shuttle pitcher to the middle to the late innings. Sands has moved from the last man to the middle innings. If a pitcher like Topa makes the team it is because he can be counted on to put out fires and be a late inning pitcher. I am not as sure about the number 6. They will have Morris, Raya, Rojas, Culpepper, possibly Prielipp, Armstrong, maybe Gallagher, Ohl and Adams that can start in AAA. If someone like SWR is determined to be the 6th starter I would put him in the major league pen to begin. If they need a starter I would open with SWR and then follow with one from the list above. SWR can probably approach 40 in that first outing and then increase from there. Doing it this way also gives one more young pitcher a chance to thrive in the bullpen. Those 6 pitchers may all be relatively close as starters but someone among them is going to shine as a reliever.

To open this is about building a bullpen that gives the Twinsa chance to contend next year. If contending isn’t your interest there are countless discussions about trading major leaguers for prospects. I don’t know the Twins plan for next year. Either way they need to build a bullpen. You can’t build confidence in young starters when the bullpen destroys the games they have started. Do we have any pieces? Did anyone step up? I think Cole Sands has stepped up. His ERA and peripherals are under 4 for the season. He can miss bats. He has been able to strand inherited runners at an acceptable level. I don’t know if he is a top 3 but he is a major league reliever. Since the trade deadline Kody Funderburk has pitched 15 outings and given up 0 earned runs. That is stepping up. He is a ground ball lefty that doesn’t miss enough bats and he also has an option. I wouldn’t DFA him and think he fits that major league role of back end reliever with options. What about the others that remained after the deadline? Justin Topa’s ERA has been good since the deadline at 3.29. His season FIP is good but FIP needs a larger sample that the other ERA estimators due to home runs. xERA is better in a small sample and it hasn’t been good. The one number that stands out is inherited runners. He has allowed 58% of inherited runners to score. He also leads the team in unearned runs allowed. Isn’t that odd? Starters have thrown so many more innings. This isn’t bad luck. He doesn’t get swings and misses. He isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher. His OPS against with runners in scoring position is .822. He hasn’t had a caught stealing while on the mound this year. He will be 35. I would move on. Ohl and Adams should start in AAA and be part of the shuttle. Either should have an opportunity to compete with Funderburk for that last spot but I think they need more time in the minors. They have the offseason to refine their pitches with an eye on a reliever role. Did any of the waiver claims step up and earn a look for 2026? No. It turns out relievers aren’t that fungible. Effective relievers might have some bad luck of BABiP and have a stretch or even season with an out of norm ERA but their effectiveness hasn’t changed that much. Looking at the peripherals I don’t see any effective relievers here. I wouldn’t put any on the 40 man roster. If the Twins see something in a few they believe they can tweak, offer a minor league contract. They may stay. There is a lot of opportunity here. What about starters? The Twins need Lopez and Ryan. The bullpen needs Lopez and Ryan. They can’t start the season with a rotation full of pitchers that struggle to finish 5 innings. They need those longer starts. I am keeping both but if you are in the other camp TD have a place for you. Please go here for a discussion on that. Behind Ryan and Lopez the Twins have 6 other pitchers that need to be in the majors. They may fail in the majors but they don’t need AAA any longer. Three of them should start the season in the pen. In the past they have used AAA to keep a pitcher stretched out. I wouldn’t do that. If a starter is needed use bullpen games until they are built up. Shuttle in a bulk reliever until that happens. The Twins need to identify three starters and three relievers from Ober, Matthews, Woods Richardson, Bradley, Festa and Abel. Anyone else? I would give Prielipp a chance to win a spot in the bullpen. Raya, Rojas and Morris will likely be on the 40 starting in AAA. What do they need? I would bring in at least three relievers as well several others on minor league contracts. The best route to get those three might be utilizing the depth of their prospect pool in trades. Whether or not they plan to contend they must invest in their bullpen for next year. It is critical to their future that they develop these young starters and those pitchers need a pen behind them they can count on. Mr. Pohlad, You say you are committed to this team. Words mean little. Actions mean everything. Show us your commitment and rebuild this pen. While you are at it bring in a bat to take some pressure off them. Bring this team back to a median payroll. That is commitment. Please fight or step aside.

Have had a chance to watch Enrique Jimenez?

How much excess value does Lopez have beyond his contract? He is owed 43.5 million over two years. I think that is about the cost of a little less than 5 WAR. I am not sure how teams will project based on his injury. He averaged 3 WAR per season from 22-24. I can’t imagine he would be projected for more than that so max 6 over two years. I don’t think an excess of 1 WAR beyond the contract is going to net a significant prospect return. The real value to the owners will be the salary savings. What kind of return should we expect for Lopez?

Has the prospect return lessened this decade? Are teams not holding out for the top flight prospects? In the last decade trades of pitchers like Archer, Sale and Grienke netted really strong returns. Prospects among the top 10 in baseball. Multiple FV 55 or greater players. The elite reliever Chapman returned the best prospect in baseball. Does that happen anymore? Only one player moved this deadline had an FV greater than 50 in DeVries. It took a reliever with 5 years of control. No prospects moved last year at the deadline above 50. Augustin Ramirez might have been the top propspect moved. Garrett Crochet has been fantastic this year. The Red Sox needed to part with Kyle Teel who was ranked 54 with a low risk FV of 50. No other top 100 prospects were in the trade. Kyle Teel has been very good in his first 200 PAs and if you don’t look at BABIP, ISO and a very high ratio of singles it looks like he is going to be a good hitter. He is not near the level of prospect that were available in trades in the last decade. If teams are no longer able to get hauls for their prospects is it still wise to trade players with multiple years of service for the best they can get? I also wonder if teams trading for salary relief give themselves less leverage because the other teams know they need to move some players. The Twins best leverage with Duran was that they didn’t need to trade him. They could have held out for Painter or kept him. It looks like they took the best they were able to get. It wasn’t enough.

Disappointed but not surprised. The Twins didn’t need to wait until today. They only had three open spots today. On August first they had about 10 and filled some of them with waiver wire claims. I don't think bringing them would have better for a player’s development or given us any true insight about their readiness for next year. The sample is too small. It just would have been more entertaining to me. I like seeing a player’s first game in the majors. It is fun when they can offer a glimmer of a hope for the future. This is an entertainment business.

Disappointed but not surprised. The Twins didn’t need to wait until today. They only had three open spots today. On August first they had about 10 and filled some of them with waiver wire claims. I don't think bringing them would have better for a player’s development or given us any true insight about their readiness for next year. The sample is too small. It just would have been more entertaining to me. I like seeing a player’s first game in the majors. It is fun when they can offer a glimmer of a hope for the future. This is an entertainment business.

I have wondered about this and don’t have an answer. The Brewers had to wait a long time to move Burnes while free agency sorted itself out. He was traded in February, by then many of the potential bidders had filled their need in free agency. How does the supply of free agents impact the market in the offseason? I do agree that Burnes was more valuable in the offseason. He came with a potential comp pick that would not have been awarded if he had been traded midseason. That isn’t true for Ryan or Lopez this off season though. The return for Burnes was DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Ortiz is a very good defender at shortstop that hasn’t hit yet. He has an OPS+ of 72. Hall has pitched 37 innings in relief. At the time it seemed like a mediocre return and two seasons later it still seems that way. It is true that Burnes had just once season left but he also is a better starter than either Ryan or Lopez. I am not convinced that trading Ryan or Lopez now will be a significantly different value given the starters in free agency. I also don’t believe that an extra year of service time will gain that much value. Teams were very conservative moving prospects at the deadline. Only one top flight prospect was moved in De Vries. The rest were FV 50 and below.

I saw Alex Marte play for the Visalia Oaks in the 80s. He stole 82 bases for them in 1984. That team stole a lot of bases. I looked up Jarvis Brown. He was a pinch runner on the 1991 World Series team. Prior to that he had a season where he stole 72 bases in Kenosha, I also recall and looked up Herman Hill. He was a pinch runner/defensive substitution on the 1969/1970 Twins. In 1967 he stole 58 bases for Orlando and another 6 in a Florida Instructional League. The last player I looked up is Pat Kelly. He stole 250 bases in his major league career but had a few cups of coffee with the Twins before the Royals took him in the expansion draft. In 1966 he stole 52 bases for AA Charlotte and another 15 up in the instructional league. This is not an exhaustive list. In looking up Visalia for Alex Marte I saw Jim Weaver stole 60 bases on the 1982 team. The Twins lost Weaver to the Tigers in the rule 5 draft. He had a handful of at bats in the majors. Going by my recall it is 82 bases from Alex Marte. For some reason my recall is better for teams 40-50 years ago than the last 25 in the minors. Someone might come up with someone more recent that surpassed 82.

I recall people saying the same thing about Byron. The argument was that he was ticked off on how they handled his service time. There was no basis in fact but it was irresponsibly repeated so many times that it was taken as fact. No one could ever show a clip of Byron saying he wanted out of here so I believed it was nonsense then. Do we have that clip from Joe? Let’s be responsible in how we characterize what Joe is thinking.

They will need to fill Abel’s spot also.

They have three spots after optioning Abel.