jorgenswest

The history of catcher equipment is fascinating and a lot has to do with getting more strikes. Better pads and pads on the outside of the uniform in the later 1800s allowed catchers to crowd the strike zone more. The circular pocket of the 1920s allowed catchers to pocket more balls but they were still using two hands. Johnny Bench and Randy Hundley were the first to catch one handed with the innovation of a hinged catcher glove. They were both known for their ability to get more strikes. Catchers have always worked hard to capture more strikes. The change recently was the ability to measure that skill with tech. Framing has always been around and I have appreciated the catchers with the skill to do it well.

Springer was not drafted as result of a 100 loss season. Those were the 2012 to 2015 drafts. Like Altuve and Keuchel he was one of the pieces that was acquired prior to the drafts that resulted from the 100 loss seasons. Their top picks from those disastrous seasons were Correa, Aiken and Appel all picked first and Bregman picked second overall. Like the Brewers and Guardians it was about acquisition and development. By 2013 it was a commitment to young players instead of veterans in team friendly one year deals. They were an old team winning 74 and 76 games in 2009 and 2010. They had few pieces to trade off and the returns on those trades were not a part of the championship run. They committed to developing their own and did it well. The Twins don’t need to lose 100 games four years in a row. They need to develop their players well and give them sustained opportunities in the majors. If they can’t develop players it won’t matter if they are at the top of the draft 4 years in a row.

I think quantity over quality is the way to go for International signings. No matter which go it will take a really skilled group of scouts identifying talent from the talent they see play most of which is prior to age 16. It is so hard to identify quality. Go back 10 years to the 2015 draft season. Those players would now be n the primes of their careers. The top 13 (I planned to go 10 but there was a 4 way tie) consisting of the group that were signed for 2 million or more is pretty unimpressive. There is one significant player in Vlad Guerrero, Leody Taveras has 4.5 WAR OBP er his career that spanned 6 major league seasons. The only other one to,reach the majors is Gilberto Celestino. Of the others many did not make it to AA. Less expensive bonuses were given to some quality players. Juan Soto signed for 1.5 million. Andre’s Gimenez 1.2. Oneil Cruz 900K. Tatis Jr 700K. The previous edition of the Twins front office went big. They gave Wander Javier 4 million which was the third highest bonus. At least for that year it sure seems like quantity over perceived quality would have been the way to go. 2014 may even be more dismal for the top 10 bonuses. If you are still interested look at the top 10 of 2016. Some of these 2016 guys are now just in their age 25 or 26 season so maybe have some chance of playing in the majors.

Yes. They should listen. You don’t trade a player with multiple years of service time unless you get blown away. Because his salary will go up after this year the greater portion of his remaining excess value is this season. He should be worth more than twice as much now as he will a year from now. That is all in theory. In practice you don’t get that much more for the extra year. They need the headliner to be someone in or very near the top ten overall prospects. If they don’t get that wait until next year. They will still be able to get players in the top 100 a year from now. This year it has to be the top of the top 100 or hold him. I don’t think they will get that offer so they should happily hold him.

I think it is Gagne. I don’t believe his defensive contribution is measured well in rWAR and the measures of his time. If I understand oWAR and dWAR correctly his offense contributed more than to his rWAR than his defense while with Minnesota. That can’t be true.

I would make the trade. I really don’t see how BTV can possibly evaluate his trade value or really anyone on the outside. The range of possible outcomes returning from his elbow injury is pretty wide. The Pirates will know best the health of his arm. If they are willing to deal him that probably means that they aren’t confident in a full return and a healthy arm going forward. If they are confident I don’t see how they trade away his four remaining years of control.

Mendez and Amick aren’t getting very much playing time. Mendez is the 5th outfielder in playing time. Amick is splitting time as a back up at first and third. Both are at the bottom of the plate appearances list with Blake Rodden who is returning from a season ending injury. I wonder why Mendez isn’t getting more plate appearances.

Servais anyone?

Baseball Savant’s list of 37 shortstops I noticed on the bottom were the two shortstops from the teams in the ALCS. I noticed Brooks Lee at 23 of 37. I noticed he was just above Correa and also above Kiner-Falefa. There were some bad plays at shortstop but is it possible that we don’t don’t the things he does well. Is he in a place where his shortstop play I. The major leagues will get better? Not sure. If he can hit at league average his play in the field at shortstop will be good enough. The Twins will have bigger problems. Baseball Savant’s list of 46 second basemen Keaschall is 32 of 46. It will probably be good enough if he hits. The wRC+ for all second base play was 90. The Twins already have a player on their roster who was above average fielder and above the 90 in wRC+ but in the roster. Kody Clemens is 19 of 46 and had a wRC+ of 98 with the Twins. His expected stats based in contact were also better than his actual stats with a xwOBA of .342 with the Twins compared to an actual wOBA of .307. Players with that difference often have improved actuals the next season. Keaschall’s xwOBA was .329. That was quite bit below his actual but I his age and return to health should lead to significant improvement in quality of contact. I would not sign a stop gap for shortstop or trade assets for a long term solution. I would bet on Lee, Keaschall and Clemens followed by Culpepper up the middle. There is a need for a back up shortstop. I would bring in competition for Fitzgerald. Kreidler is a start and should be solid defensively with little bat. I don’t think he will be the next Willi Castro. There are former top 100 players like Ezequiel Duran and Liover Peguero that will be out of options and could be DFA’d if they are looking for the next Willi Castro.

Eight games into the AFL season and Mendez has not played first base. The Twins reportedly were working him out at the position in August and September. Perhaps they determined he doesn’t have the tools to play the position. Really not surprising since both Milwaukee and Philadelphia did not play him at first base in the minors and like the Twins they played several of their minor leaguers in those teams at first base. I still hope to see him play there in the AFL but the reality of how hard it is to play any position in the major leagues is setting in. I fear he is destined to be the next Larnach or Wallner for the next 6 years where there will be constant calls for the Twins to move him to first base. Let’s not do that with him. Not everyone has the tools to play first base,

I also have a wonder about the Brewer trades, have the they traded key players with multiple years of service time? Burnes had one year left. Williams had one year left. I think Hader one plus the partial season. They traded him with a 4.24 ERA in the season they didn’t make the playoffs. I would like the Twins to follow this model also. They traded Duran, Jax and Varland with too much service time and little if any extra value for that time. If they trade Ryan this winter it will be with more service time than the trades of Burnes, Williams and Hader. Trading Ryan now isn’t the Brewers model.

While true that the were not acquired by waiver claim it is mostly a function of their record. If a player is worthy of claiming, teams with good records like the Brewers won’t win the claim. Instead a trade is needed. They built their bullpen largely on players DFA’d by other teams. The give up cash or minor leaguers with little to no prospect status to avoid the risk the claim won’t get to them. The Twins DFA’d Trevor Megill. The Brewers sent them cash and Taylor Floyd. Floyd was a 25 year old reliever in high A with the Brewers. He has since been released by the Twins. They acquired Grant Anderson in trade after he had been DFA’d by the Rangers. Nick Mears had been DFA’d twice before the the Brewers made a trade with the Rockies. He had a 5.56 ERA with the Rockies. One of the players they traded was released by the Rockies. The other was a major leaguer and had a 9.36 ERA in 12 starts for the Rockies this year. Koenig was released by the Padres and picked up a a minor league free agent. The other two relievers in the bullpen were developed by the Brewers. Uribe was an international signing and Ashby a fourth round draft pick. The Brewers spent virtually no capital to build a bullpen. The 4th round pick might have been the most valuable asset they used. That is the Brewers model the Twins must follow. It will take an elite ability to identify and develop pitching talent that is unwanted and unrecognized by other teams.

Jon Heyman reported the Twins were specifically interested in Tong this summer in a trade for Duran. The Mets were unwilling to deal two top prospects.

Wow! That is rough. The Twins have one player in their system that has better than an FV55/55 for defense in center fielder Rodriguez. There were just seven shortstops in the minor leagues with an FV55/55 for defense according to Fangraphs 2025 update. That was Kreidler’s level in his last prospect report in 2023. I think more minor moves can and will be made.

Not enough. Let’s stop with this top 100 stuff as if they are all equal. There are maybe 20 FV 55 and above. After that there are a bunch of FV50, FV45+ and FV45. That gets you to nearly 300 players. The middle of the top 100 is closer to number 250 in future value than number 10. The majority of those players do not make an impact in the majors. Roden was a top 100 going into this season. The Mets have one player that is above FV50 according to Fangraphs. That is the player they need to get and if the Mets aren’t dealing they aren’t a match.

I agree. Then they must hang up the phone and keep Ryan. There isn’t anyone else that can headline this deal. The Twins would be fools to take a guy hoping he can develop a third pitch. That guy is destined to be a reliever.

Got it. I guess I need to learn how to turn it off in a basic google search. When I search the top part always says from AI.

Hey @Mike Sixel I noticed the downvote on the description of the requirements to eligible for a fourth option. Did the downvote mean that I got something wrong there? I would like to fix it if that is the case. I used Google search and copied as I cited so maybe I got something wrong.

Concur. The only way to get that top flight prospect is to demand it and not engage in conversations without that prospect.

I enjoyed this read on Madden from the Tampa Bay Times. He certainly has some thoughts on the role of the GM and also the balance of analytics. It is three years old but those beliefs probably have not changed. Would he take an interview with the Twins? It seems unlikely.

McLean is in another tier compared to the others and there is a significant gap between him and the others. The Twins shouldn’t take calls unless a team is starting with a prospect in that tier. I would prefer a position player but that is a preference. Getting a top flight prospect is more important. The call from the Mets has to start with McLean and then they can negotiate for an added position prospect among the FV50s. If McLean is off the table hang up the phone. They can get FV50s a year from now.

He will likely be DFA’d with hope of getting to AAA. His glove is a good one and it keeps him on the fringe of the majors. In his last prospect report it was FV 55/55. It is very difficult to play an average or better major league shortstop and centerfield. He might be able to do both. His OAA over his time in the major leagues support the scouting report. Seems like a good thing to have a depth piece in AAA with a fundamentally solid glove up the middle. Really no risk. Worst case they lose him to another team looking to add depth.

I do wonder about Shelton. The Pirates have ranked in the top ten in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs prospect pools. They ranked fourth when he took over in 2020 with six top ten prospects. Cruz has league average wRC+ but moved off shortstop. Much more was expected from a prospect that peaked at number 7 overall. Hayes (peaked at #14) was given 2500 plate appearances and did not approach a league average hitter before they gave up on him. Keller (peaked at #23) has 163 starts with a career ERA of 4.51 and just one season with an ERA under 4. That’s the good news from the 4th ranked group with six in the top 100 that he inherited. The Twins have added to their prospect pool and need a manager that can help get the best from them. Has Shelton shown that he is that manager?

Good point. Younger debut age correlates to pitchers that land in all star games so maybe more correlation than causation. In any case Bradley, SWR, Festa, Matthews and Raya already have or can debut in the majors in that 22-24 range. That leaves Prielipp who is in that 25 due to injury group. His fit is Ragans. I don’t think relieving this year will keep him from being a starter in the future. It is those 6 starters that I have in mind. They all can’t join Ryan, Lopez and Ober. I think the best route is to keep all 9. If all 9 are among the best 12 then I want to roster them all. I should note that they need to make the top 12 and not 13. That 13th spot should be shuttled between slightly older prospects that have options. Pitchers like Adams, Ohl and Laweryson would fit if they aren’t in the top 12. Sands and Jax were in that role and pitched their way into a permanent spot. They can do the same.

The Twins look to have more major league ready starters than major league quality relievers. I wonder if damage is done by having them relieve at the major league level rather than start in AAA. Quite a while ago many pitchers started as relievers and moved to a starter. I looked to the all star rosters from the last two years to see if any of those starters spent time in the bullpen earlier in their career. Chris Sale pitched his first two seasons as a reliever. Lugo was a reliever for the Mets. Bubic pitcher from relief last year after returning from injury. Crochet began his career as a reliever. Rasmussen was a reliever. Peralta pitched from the pen. Glasnow was put in the pen by the Pirates after struggling as a starter. Lopez had 4 seasons in relief before returning to a starter in 2024, Ranger Suarez began as a reliever. Ragans was a reliever with the Rangers the season he was traded to the Royals. Holmes was a reliever from 2018-2024 prior to his successful season as a starter this year. Houck was a reliever in 2022 and an all star starter in 2024. I will acknowledge that some of these pitchers changed teams before changing roles. It could be it was their first organization that had their minds fixed on that relief role. I am not convinced we are harming careers by having potential young starters pitch from the bullpen. Some of these pitchers even transitioned from reliever to starter midseason. I would start the 2026 season with the 12 best arms even if it means putting a pitcher capable of starting in the bullpen. I don’t believe pitching from a major league bullpen is going to stop these pitchers from being a starter in the future. The only thing that would stop that from happening is if the Twins management gets fixated on their role and not open to moving them to a starter when an opportunity arises. Tagging @Riverbrian here because he often challenges us (myself included) on keeping an open mind and not be so fixated on roles. Maybe this is not what he envisions though.