jorgenswest

I am trying to find an analysis of the BP’s defensive metric for outfield that is not done by BP. Anyone leads? Here is one from 2023 on RDA which is a main component of DRP. I would like to find something not done by BP that argues that we should be paying attention to DRP over OAA. There aren’t many baseball players that can hit and play a near average centerfield. Right now I think Buxton is better than near average. Even if accepting BP’s assessment of his slightly below average defense he still looks to be the best option in CF for the Twins next year.

Almost all second baseman are shortstops in the low minors and were shortstops in college if drafted a from there. Players like Keaschall, Julien and Steer did not leave college as shortstops. At the draft the Twins had to know that it was going to be a stretch for them to play up the middle at the major league level. The Twins chose skill with the bat over skill with the glove. Noah Miller was an exception but they moved on from him. It might be a good strategy. Developing an adequate glove might be easier than developing an adequate bat. How much impact does a swing of 4 or 5 OAA have on a season? Keaschall’s bat and an adequate second base can help the Twins win. Above average glove or above average bat? If you can only have one which do you prefer?

One other thought… I don’t think one or two months of data is very valuable for making decisions. Kyle Stowers was awful in 172 plate appearances after being acquired by the Marlins last year. He had an OPS+ of 55 and a -6 OAA in the outfield. It is really hard to perform worse than that. To the Marlins credit they gave him the one thing he needed in consistent play at the major league level. He has rewarded them this year. Improvement isn’t linear and even a player at 26 can be much better at 27.

One thought… Trading Duran, Jax and Varland has been difficult for me to accept. I get the other deals whether it be a trade of salary or a trade of a player on an expiring contract. I will even accept that counting on Browck Stewart to be healthy next year was unreasonable. These are the arguments for these deals. Relievers are Fungible I guess the logic is that relievers are fungible and a bullpen can be rebuilt inexpensively. I think that logic is tragically flawed. While the ERA of a reliever fluctuates more than a starter or regular position player I do not believe that their talent or skill is fluctuating. A talented reliever remains a talented reliever. It is the inherently small sample of a reliever that causes the ERA and even FIP to vary. Both need a large sample to stabilize. For Falvey to be correct he needs to build a bullpen next year using fewer resources than he acquired at the deadline. Prospect Hauls are Possible The other flaw in thinking is that a haul can be acquired at the deadline. The prospects hauls of the 2010s are no longer. Somehow simply being in the top 100 of prospects has taken on a special status. The reality is that being in the middle or back half of the top 100 is far different than the top 10. I would guess a prospect in the 40s is more similar to a number 200 prospect than one in the top 10. The Twins didn’t demand that top flight prospect and gave up the only leverage they had when they traded Duran. They didn’t get a haul and there probably wasn’t one to be had. De Vries was moved and I don’t think the Padres take Duran over Miller given the service time. Last year no top flight prospect moved. No top flight prospects were moved in 2023. You can’t gut your teams and get players with better than an FV50 anymore. There is no reason to trade that extra service time at the deadline. You don’t get enough value in return.

Concur. I really believe this is critical for position players. I have been diving into the 2016 Twins and 2017 Twins. The 2016 Twins won 59 games. The 2017 Twins won 85 games. How did that happen? One thing I noticed is the Twins had the second youngest batter age in the AL at 26.9. The Astros were the youngest at 26.4. The Astros improved by 17 games in 2017 and won the World Series. The Rays were 3rd by average batter age in the AL. They went from 68 to 80 to 90. Over in the NL the DBacks were 26.4. They went from 69 wins to 94 wins. I should add the Phillies also. They were 26.9. They did not improve the next year. This is not a deep dive. Mauer’s PAs skew that 26.9 number up. The Phillies didn’t have any starter that was 30. The season to season improvement of Buxton, Sanó, Rosario, Polanco and Escobar were a big contribution to the success. They did sign one free agent in Castro. He was a very nice upgrade over Suzuki. As for Martin and the others under 27. I would prefer the Twins bet on the improvement of their own players as opposed to trying to squeeze one more year out of a player in the decline phase of their career. I would bet on Martin rather than spend the 10-20 million it might take to get Bader back for one year. The pay off of finding a pre-arb player that contributes to wins is worth the gamble.

Just some data. Brooks Lee is a -4 OAA in 468.1 innings or -1 for every 117 innings. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa didn’t play SS at 24. He played 3B. At 25 he had a -1 OAA in 121 innings at SS. At 26 he was a regular SS and had an OAA of -6 in 1360 innings. He then grew into an average fielding shortstop for a while. Now 30 he has an OAA of -3 in 815 innings or -1 in every 272 innings.

Is the age 24 season early for a consensus?

They don’t get to face themselves so they are at a disadvantage here compared to batters on other teams.

I don’t disagree with Ryan. The decisions following the 2023 season initiated the downturn. I find it hard to argue that he was pulled early when between 2016 and 2025 the season that he pitched the most innings and faced the most batters was the one where Rocco Baldelli was his manager.

Huh? What in the world does “pull philosophy” mean? Sonny Gray pitched more innings in 2023 than he has in the last 11 seasons. He was second in Cy Young. In the two seasons prior to being with the Twins he had an ERA of 4.05. In his two seasons since leaving the Twins he had an ERA of 4.15. In his two seasons with the Twins he had an ERA of 2.90. Those Twins seasons led to a very nice contract.

Joe Ryan is absolutely correct that letting Gray go was the beginning of the downward spiral. I am glad he spoke out. Gray was a big piece of the payroll cut following their most successful playoff run in 20 years. That payroll cut ignited the downward spiral. The Twins made the absolutely correct decision to let him go. Decline was coming and he was very expensive. He still has two years left at 65 million or the Cardinals can buy out the last year and it will be one year at 40 million. The Twins should have taken his salary slot and replaced it with someone else. The Twins did that with the Berrios slot. He was traded for Martin and SWR and the in the offseason they traded a prospect for Gray who had essentially the same salary. Brilliantly done. The Twins traded a year plus of Berrios and prospect Petty and received two years of Gray as well as Martin, Woods Richardson, Peguero and a comp pick (DeBarge). that was brilliantly done. they should have done the same with Gray and reinvested that salary in another player. The best route would be to acquire that player in trade and look for someone with about two years of service time. With the benefit of looking back I think they should have focused on a position player. Failing to do that was the beginning of the downward spiral.

I just watched many of his defensive plays this year. In total he looks good. There were probably 3 balls he missed that 75% or more would get. He also was split on some 50/50 balls. You can still see last year too. I think it is a big step forward. I think he will take another step forward next year.

My confidence is not just in the 99 major league PAs but it is the profile he showed in the minors. He has a AAA OBP of .419 and corresponding .382 in the majors this year. He has nearly as many walks as strike outs this year. He is a pre-arb right handed batting outfielder with some speed and an ability to play on the infield if needed. Seems like the kind of player many teams could use on the bench. Perhaps some would prefer the Twins continue to pay a veteran right handed bench bat. With veterans you probably wouldn’t get as many mistakes.

Glad Ober pitched today.

I guess it makes me wonder if they should shut down any pitcher of value. Why risk an injury to Joe or Pablo? Pablo is just back and Joe has had some rough outing recently. Maybe something is going on with the arm. Maybe shut down some of the young arms too. No reason to risk Tommy John and losing next year. I guess the only thing holding them back is a player needs to be injured to be put in IL. Should they shut down Ober? Sure. If there is an injury.

I didn’t see the indifference. They didn’t barrel up the ball against Wacha. I am not sure it was indifference that held them back.

Do you think they got enough at the deadline? My argument was that teams don’t let go of prospects like they did in the 2010s. It took 5 years of service time of an all star to get a top 10 prospect. Less than 10 years ago it took a rental in Chapman to get that. Look at the prospects that have moved the last few years. The trading environment has shifted. There is a huge difference between a player in the mid 100s on the prospect list to a player in the top 10. If you are only getting FV 45 and 50 players for the very good relievers with 3 post seasons or more of control would you make the deals? Can you build a team on a bunch of guys with a future value of number 4 starter or average position player? The best they received is an FV50 with a high risk of getting there. Is that the foundation for building towards a team that contend for the World Series or is it continuing on the cycle of mediocrity?

In my space up I will take 75 wins over 60 wins next year so then fight for 75. I guess I will at least have to hope for watchable over unwatchable. I have stopped following the games after the starter is removed.

I don’t know how to describe it as a want other than I want them to compete. The Berrios deal set the course for 2023. They moved Berrios for prospects. It wasn’t a salary dump. They took that same salary slot and traded a prospect for Sonny Gray. Gray’s salary slot helped pay for Lopez when he was extended. For the rest of 21 and 22 from Berrios and Chase Petty the Twins received two full seasons of Gray, Woods Richardson, Austin Martin, Francis Peguero and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). Someone argued then that they didn’t have a plan. Why trade a starter for prospects and then trade prospects for a starter? They ended up trade the lost half season of 21 for the full season of 23. Brilliantly done. How can they reinvest the savings in summer’s purge back into the team? They need the right veteran players too. They need to be at the top of the rotation or the top of the line up or late inning relievers. I like the way the Brewers and Mariners have acquired their relievers so preferably they keep Joe and Pablo for this year and trade for a really good bat.

Any new wants for next year?

I don’t how many times I can say I am not making them relievers for the entire year by starting them in the pen. Should I type in all CAPS? There will be injuries and there will be opportunities to start. If they aren’t competing at the deadline that is when I would listen to offers on Ryan or Lopez. They also aren’t locked into relieving in future years. Roster the best 13 pitchers in the roster next year. At least roster the best 12 and plan for a shuttle spot of pitchers like Adams, Ohl and Funderburk in the 13th. If they acquire pitchers to the point that those 8 starters are not among the best 12 I will rejoice. I my mind only Sands is ahead of some of the, now.

To amplify @DJL44 In 2005 Morneau led all first baseman with a positive 3.5 DEF. It was his rookie season. In 2004 and 2006 no first baseman had a positive DEF. No one hands a positive DEF at 1B this year. Positives at 1B are rare. Morneau was again near the best 1B in baseball in 2009 with a -5.7. Derek Lee was at the top with -4.3. Morneau was never near the bottom of the league. In addition just adding in my head Morneau had 106 points deducted due to positional adjustment as a Twins. By DEF we might want to add Nelson Cruz who was -26.6 in just 258 games as a Twin.

I am not turning any of them into career relievers. From my original post. They can approach 40 pitches in their first abbreviated start and build from there. They don’t need to be fixed as relievers just because they start in the pen. Abel has been very good in AAA. I think he is better off in the bullpen facing major league hitters if he doesn’t make the starting rotation. I don’t think any of the 8 gets better by pitching in AAA next year. I also believe they will be among the best 13 pitchers and I am putting the best 13 pitchers in the roster. I wake up every day fighting to be the odds. I expect the Twins will fight to put up their best team possible next year. It is hard for me to grasp any other mindset.

Thanks for playing @The Great Hambino I just want to be clear what you would do. Would you trade one of Pablo or Joe to help them be more competitive next year? Perhaps you said that out of certainty that the Twins will trade one of them and not an interest of being competitive in 2026 or perhaps a desire that they sell off and build for a few years down the road. For this exercise I am only interested in discussing trades Joe or Pablo if that is a path to success in 2026. One of the keys to that success will be is finding new arms for the bullpen whether currently in the organization or not.

In my version the starting staff is solid and they need a bat. I ended with that. I don’t think they can go into the season without adding probably by trade of prospects a reliable arm to the pen. A competitive team is within reach. They can’t do it with a pen full of waiver wire arms to start the season.