jorgenswest

Really good addition for the Twins. They did not get a catcher in this draft class and now they have that 19 year old catcher.

Looking forward to this post a week from now.

Absolutely agree. However they have to get the deals done. I assume they have targets within each organization. If they can get one of them for just Bader they need to pull the trigger. Holding out to try to get a better target may end in the trading partner looking elsewhere doing two smaller deals for a reliever and outfielder from separate clubs. The Twins can’t be left holding these assets.

Have fun Pierson Ohl. These men work so hard to get here. I enjoy watching debuts almost no matter how they go.

Fun game of baseball. Excited for Kiersey.

Do you think Ballesteros will stick at catcher? From Fangraphs full report From MLB Rushing has much better numbers as a catcher but might be more expensive. If they want to take a chance on a guy who has questions at catcher but can hit they could consider Luis Campusano. He might be a buy low they can pick up with giving up any key player with control. Ford would be awesome.

Selling off expiring contracts also opens a space in the roster and an opportunity to someone who they do control for next year.

I think Bader is simalar to Nelson Cruz and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar better three prospects with FVs 40+, 40 and below 35. For Cruz they got two 45s and Ryan slotted in below Strotman according the Fangraphs. To make that deal happen the Twins needed to add a prospect back. Someone in that 40-45 range for the Dodgers will have some success in the majors. The Twins need to find that guy.

Absolutely. Yes. Will the front office be willing to invest into this team over the winter? One more bat would really help. Maybe it is Jenkins. Maybe Rodriguez is healthy and impactful. Maybe Lewis plays at an all star level. I am not shutting the door on next season,

Eldridge has a 33.3% strike out rate in AAA with an 84 wRC+. He isn’t close to ready. Made hasn’t hit high A yet. High risk. De Vries has hit high A but has yet to put up offensive numbers beyond slightly above league average. DePaula is in high A but his defense at corner outfield is going to be shaky. All of these players have too much uncertainty. Three have upside given their age but my guess is only one of these is an all star level major leaguer and for three of them that is probably 5 years away. Let’s wait a year.

Saw this earlier but didn’t click through. Wish I hadn’t clicked now. Most are the very back end of the 100. My guess is one of the 5 turns out to be an average regular or number 4 starter. Most will use up options and service time on the early career performance roller coaster. If in time they become consistently useful it will be time to trade them for other FV 50s.

I watched the Lewis double and did not expect the runner to score from first. Hard line drive to left field that the fielder handled well. You expect a score on a double in the gaps but this was a shorter throw home than a ball in the gap. EV 106.4 and LA 16 one hop to the fence. Not a lot of air time to get home. If you watched it live and had a different take in that moment I can respect that. It is hard to respect an after the fact take. All of this Correa nonsense is overshadowing a great start by Zebby.

Are these among the many FV50s in the top 100 that will also span towards 200? These would be players like SWR when he was a prospect. Is it real top prospects like Anthony, Campbell and Mayer? The Twins would be fools to take a deal of what amounts to five FV50 prospects. They might be fools.

If I have mistrust it is in the ownership and would prefer that they hold onto these assets and let the next owners decide how to utilize them. As for the Berrios trade they did get two well respected prospects. Martin has not fulfilled his future value of average regular. Woods Richardson may fulfilled that future value of #4 starter. That wasn’t the blockbuster of the deadline. It was the Dodgers sending their top two prospects and two others for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to be the key to the Nationals future as a top starter and everyday catcher, Ruiz has been their primary catcher but has put up a below replacement level negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. They keep playing him because the investment was huge in the 8 year contract they gave him. Josiah Gray started for them in 2022 and 2023 with FIPS of 5.86 and 4.93. Early in the 2024 season he left with Tommy John surgery. He may be able to throw at the end of this season. The other two did not make it to the majors and have been released by the Nationals. Ruiz is 27. He could turn it around much like some of the similarly aged Twins in AAA that have shown flashes. Gray may still turn it around but their control of him is running out. He will be a free agent after the 2027. They have the same control for Gray as the Twins have for Ryan, Duran and Jax. If Gray does turn it around I suppose they can trade him next deadline and start the clock over. I do think the Berrios deal turned out well for the Twins. The key was taking that projected salary and instead of putting it in the owners pockets they went out and added Sonny Gray. The cost to the Twins was 1+ season of Berrios and Chase Petty. The return was two seasons of Sonny Gray, Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). If the owners don’t follow through and add Gray’s salary in 2022 then it is a bad deal. Do we have trust that this ownership will spend the resources to replace Ryan or Duran or Jax this winter? That was the key to the Berrios deal.

A catcher that they know will stick at catcher and be on the roster next year in place of Vazquez. In two years I would hope they step up to #1 catcher. Last year the Marlins received one of the best catchers on the board in Agustín Ramirez. It turns out he can’t throw out runners and is a passed ball machine. The bat is solid with a 103 wRC+ as a rookie. He plays more DH than catcher. I want the Twins to avoid that kind of catching prospect. Ballesteros looks very questionable to me. He gives up a high rate of stolen bases both per inning as well as success rate. I suppose we can’t be sure of any prospect catcher. I think we can’t be pretty sure that if a catcher is giving up stolen bases at a high rate in the minors they will do so in the majors. If they can’t block balls in the dirt in the minors they won’t do so in the majors. I shouldn’t be so definitive. Perhaps they need two more years in the minors to be an acceptable catcher in the majors. I don’t want to wait. I can wait on the bat to improve in the majors. The glove has to start at minimally a mediocre level with an expectation that it will be average soon. I think it will take average minor league play behind the plate in order to get to a passable level in the majors.

Out of context maybe not. Relievers are so critical to the playoffs because the additional off days allow them to have an impact in many games. In the context of the Dodgers or teams with the ability to spend so much money it might be harder to acquire a Duran than a Berrios. They are also building to win the World Series as opposed to win enough in the regular season to get to the playoff. I think 3 playoff years control of Duran is worth more to the Dodgers than two playoff years from Berrios. There are some other teams that have the resources to overpay for a top reliever. On a spreadsheet it might be the same or lean toward Berrios. The market can play out differently though. I hope the Twins hold out for more than the Berrios return.

I was thinking about that conversation also. The take that stuck with me was how many conversations it took to make a deal. It was my take on that podcast that led me to my push today for focus on these deals. They have a high number of expiring contracts and getting the best they can on those six would be a great accomplishment. They also need a catcher and those six alone seem unlikely to bring back that catcher. Maybe they have a catcher they believe in that is not ranked in top 100s but can be acquired for one of these six. It could be that adding Larnach to a Coulombe deal might push to a catcher that they like. It could be that they need to deal Jax to get that catcher. I don’t think Larnach on his own will get that catcher. I suppose he might be worth Luis Campusano if the Twins felt they could get the talent out of the one time top catching prospect. I would put all of the energy into trading the six and I will add the focus of acquiring a catcher. Duran and Ryan were not in the top 100 and were acquired in deals for players with expiring contracts. The clock is ticking in those six assets. The others can be dealt in the future.

I would prioritize differently. I would focus on the expiring assets that I can’t trade after the deadline. To me it is a good deadline if they get good deals for those six and use the two months remaining to give a shot to players in AAA. Larnach would be way down on my list and not a priority.

In 2018 they were around 8 games under at the deadline. It was probably hard to foresee the turnaround coming in 2019. They had control of Pressly and they really needed him in 2019. They signed Blake Parker. He failed and was released by the deadline. They then needed to trade assets for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. They should have learned that it is far easier to trade a good late inning reliever than acquire one.

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach? The 13 I have seen… Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

Would you be OK with moving the 6 expiring contracts and then giving a shot to these three? I certainly would for Martin and Julien. I have lost trust in the management. I also think that at least two of the three will have to get a shot if the management does the most important job of getting a good return for the expiring contracts.

I am sure they have enough to take calls. Their leadership needs to be deeply involved in every move. We are suggesting they move more than a quarter of their roster before they even get to these three. They don’t need to trade the three above and the return would be minimal. Focus elsewhere and let’s see what they can do in the final two months when 6 or 7 roster spots open up. The quality if these trades is more important to their future than the quantity.

They need to do a great job of trading their expiring assets. That should be their primary focus. Let’s focus on targeting the return for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and even Paddack. Let’s see if they can find a match and get a lottery ticket for Vazquez and France. I will add one more in Jax but those conversations should be short. Set a too high bar and hold your ground. Stay focused on those deals that comprise more than a quarter of the roster. They can’t go into the frenzied trade deadline having serious conversations about 11 or 12 players. That would be a recipe for failure. Priorities Take serious offers on Jax. Do the homework on the top prospects offered. Get an A+ deal or retain him. Work hard in the deals for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and Paddack. Identify those players outside of the top 100 that will out perform their perceived future value. Find a new home for Vazquez and France and give those two months to Gasper at catcher and more playing time for Clemens. There is a lot of work to do this deadline. Let’s not distract it by trying to find a new home for the three above.

They should only accept anunrealistic offer where the overwhelming consensus is an A+ deal for the Twins and BTV doesn’t think it is a fair deal. They also need to manage this correctly. Let all of the teams fight over Jax. Hang up the phone unless the offer blows them away. Once Jax is traded at a high bar. Raise the bar for Duran and see if a team pays up. A good outcome is the Twins retain both. A great outcome is they get two 55 FV players for Jax. Players with a future value of #3 starter or plus regular while retaining Duran. If they get a catcher in the deal they could take more risk with future value there. If the offer is two FV 50 players I hope they pass. Players don’t start at their future value when they hit the majors. They will need to invest enough at bats or innings into a player playing below average for a few years to realize that future value of average regular or #4 starter. The hope would be by year 3. By the time they do hit that future value we will probably be talking about trading them soon after. They need to shoot higher than many of the players in the top 100 or they need to use their leverage and wait a year. Meanwhile they really need to focus on the expiring contracts. That is the real work here. Duran wasn’t a top 100 prospect and needed 4 years to get the majors. Ryan wasn’t a top 100 prospect but in his fourth year he is among the best starters in baseball. The real work needs to be identifying those players outside the top 100 and target them in return for Castro, Bader, Coulombe and Paddack.

@Seth Stohs reported that they released Cartaya and not Camargo. Camargo had Tommy John surgery.