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The Twins made a modest investment in Nelson Cruz when they signed the then-38-year-old before the 2019 season, and were repaid exponentially with more than two years of offensive firepower. Can Justin Turner fill a similar role for the club this time around? Image courtesy of Brian Fluharty, Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins jump head-first into the offseason, their needs are pretty straightforward. They have to figure out how to replicate Sonny Gray’s production atop the starting rotation, they need to find a centerfielder to replace Michael A. Taylor, and they should look to fortify their relief corps. Along with that trio of items on their checklist, the club will be on the lookout for a middle-of-the-lineup bat that can mash left-handed pitching. Could Justin Turner fit that bill? Sure, there are plenty of reasons to be hesitant about bringing in a veteran of 15 years at this stage of his career. Turner is entering his age-39 season, is becoming increasingly limited defensively, and will almost certainly command a two-year deal on the open market. But those same factors were true for Nelson Cruz heading into 2019, and he is bound to go down as one of the best free agent signings in team history. So would Turner be a good fit for a similar role with the Twins in 2024? The Need The Twins were delighted to get as much value as they did out of veteran Donovan Solano this season, especially considering his affordable $2 million price tag. He hit .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+) while playing in 134 games, mostly seeing time as the right-handed side of a platoon at first base. Now that he’s a free agent, the Twins will surely want to fill his hole on the roster with more offensive ceiling, but without giving up much on the defensive side of the coin. They need someone who can provide a major boost against left-handed pitching, but can also hold their own if given at-bats against righties. And with the departure of a handful of respected players leaving the clubhouse for free agency, the Twins may want another respected veteran to come in and help establish a winning culture in the dugout. If possible, someone with a plethora of experience having success in the postseason would be icing on the cake. While the Twins’ financial capacity is still being determined as they wait for a new TV deal, the assumption is that they will have the ability to take on at least one or two mid-level salaries as they try to fortify the roster. But with so many young sluggers emerging as options for the big league club, with even more shining in the minor leagues, the Twins will want the flexibility of a short-term deal if they are to cast their line into the free agency pond. The Fit That’s where Turner fits in rather seamlessly. He’s coming off of yet another stellar campaign with the Boston Red Sox where he hit .276/.345/.455 (114 wRC+), belting 23 home runs and driving in 96 runs in 146 games played. While that type of production is a slight step down from his heyday with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it shows that he still possesses a game-changing bat even in his late-thirties. He is still highly potent against southpaws, where he hit .285/.372/.528 (142 wRC+), and he held his own against righties, hitting .273/.335/.430 (105 wRC+). Simply put, Turner’s bat is his calling card, and he’s shown that there is still plenty left in the tank from an offensive standpoint. While most of his time was spent in the designated hitter role in 2023, he did play 41 games at first base, and 17 games between second and third base. He looked stretched at the hot corner, and just passable at second, but Turner looked rock-solid as a first-baseman when the Sox needed him. His play was worth three Defensive Runs Saved in that limited time, which would be a massive improvement over what the Twins got from Solano (-3 DRS) and Alex Kirilloff (-8 DRS) in 2023. With Solano entering free agency, and Kirilloff’s health remaining a question mark, Turner could be an excellent platoon bat that remains valuable as an everyday player if needed. The Contract Turner became a free agent last week by opting out of the second year of his deal with Boston, instead choosing a buyout worth roughly $6.7 million. Had he decided to remain a Red Sox, he would’ve secured a $13.4 million paycheck. But opting out gives him the opportunity to seek another multi-year commitment that he can add to his buyout bonus. Given the fact that he will be entering his age-39 season, a two-year pact seems like the sweet spot for what he should be seeking. For what it’s worth, the Red Sox could still try to bring him back. He made it clear that he enjoyed his time in Boston, and they recognize the strong season he just completed. However, they find themselves saddled with the burden of a few other pricey contracts for players that are likely past their prime. Chris Sale, Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen are owed a combined $89.3 million over the next two years, with another $46.6 million on the hook if Story declines to opt out of his contract after 2025. The Twins are familiar with the type of deal that will likely be required to nab Turner. They signed Cruz to a one-year, $14 million contract for 2019, with a $12 million club option for the following season. It was a no-brainer for them to pick up that 2020 option, and they then inked him for $13 million in 2021. If they do bring Turner in on a short-term deal and things go south for the club, they could even ship him off at the trade deadline as they did with Cruz in 2021. But regardless, Turner shouldn’t command a lengthy deal that hampers the club’s future, and he has the ceiling to be a true difference-maker in the lineup. What do you think? Would Justin Turner be a good fit for the Twins if he were to command a similar deal to Cruz prior to 2019? Who else would you rather see the Twins bring in as an affordable, middle-of-the-order bat? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Teams must hit on their free agent signings to succeed, especially when their payroll ranks in the middle of the league. How have the Twins done in recent years regarding signing free agent talent? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Baseball’s most successful organizations create rosters through player development, trades, and free agent signings. Historically, the Twins have attempted to build their core around young, homegrown talent while supplementing the roster in other ways. The current front office has tried to be more aggressive on the free agent market, but how have those results played out over the last handful of seasons? 2023 Offseason FA Signings: Carlos Correa (six-years, $200 million), Christian Vázquez (three-years, $30 million), Joey Gallo (one-year, $11 million), Donovan Solano (one-year, $2 million) 2023 spent: $56.3 million Total spent: $243 million Last winter, the Twins had Correa’s pending free agency looming over many of the team’s offseason decisions. His deals with the Mets and Giants didn’t work out due to concerns over an ankle injury from early in his professional career, and he ended up signing back with the Twins. Plantar fasciitis impacted his performance throughout the 2023 season, but he made multiple important plays on both sides of the ball during the playoffs. His contract will be looked at through a different lens because of the length and value. Hopefully, an offseason of rest and recovery will solve his injury issues from this season. Vázquez was a clear target for the Twins last winter, with Ryan Jeffers coming off a rough 2022 season. Minnesota likes to have a two-catcher rotation to keep both players fresh behind the plate. Overall, Vazquez posted a 65 OPS+ but remained a strong defender. Gallo posted a 1.063 OPS in the season’s first month before his performance dropped off significantly. Injuries elsewhere were likely the only reason he stayed on the roster for the entire season. Solano signed late in the offseason and provided a valuable veteran bat (110 OPS+, 1.8 rWAR). He is the most significant positive out of this free agent class. 2023 Grade: C-, the Twins don’t sign players like Correa, so it was nice to see the club make an aggressive move. However, most players didn’t live up to expectations. 2022 Offseason FA Signings: Carlos Correa (three-years, $105.3 million), Dylan Bundy (one-year, $5 million), Chris Archer (one-year, $3.5 million), Joe Smith (one-year, $2.5 million) 2022 spent: $46.1 million Total spent: $116.3 million Correa’s signing was unexpected, and the lockout changed the trajectory of the entire offseason. The Twins knew that Correa’s deal was likely for one season, and then he would likely opt out of the contract. Minnesota fell out of contention in the season’s final weeks, but that’s when Correa played at his best. He ended the season with a 138 OPS+, the second-highest total of his career. Minnesota’s other free agent signings couldn’t have gone much worse. Bundy and Archer started 54 games while each posting an ERA+ of 86 or lower. Injuries significantly impacted the team’s roster, and the Twins had to continue to trot out their veteran pitchers even though they were pitching below replacement level. Smith was limited to 34 appearances with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. None of these three pitchers made a big-league appearance during the 2023 season, which speaks to how bad they were in 2022. 2022 Grade: D, there were other options the Twins could have targeted for the rotation. Correa is the lone factor that saves this grade from being an F. 2021 Offseason FA Signings: Nelson Cruz (one-year, $13 million), Andrelton Simmons (one-year, $10.5 million), J.A. Happ (one-year, $8 million), Alex Colome (one-year, $6.25 million), Matt Shoemaker (one-year, $2 million), Hansel Robles (one-year, $2 million) 2021 spent: $41.5 million Total spent: $41.5 million Minnesota avoided signing any long-term deals leading into the 2021 season, which kept money off the books for future years. Cruz had been the heart and soul of the Twins roster in 2019 and 2020 while the team won back-to-back division titles. However, things didn’t work out for the club after a slow start to the season. At the trade deadline, the Twins traded Cruz’s expiring contract to the Rays in a deal that included Joe Ryan. Cruz posted a 148 OPS+ before the trade and a 101 OPS+ with Tampa. Colome gets a lot of the blame for the Twins' poor start to the season because he posted an 8.31 ERA and blew multiple saves in April. Happ and Shoemaker both had ERA+ totals of 63 or lower, and neither finished the season on the team’s roster. Simmons played 131 games at shortstop while hitting .223/.283/.274 (.558). He played 34 games for the Cubs in 2022 and didn’t appear in a big-league game during the 2023 campaign. Robles posted an ERA of around 5.00 and was sent to Boston at the trade deadline. 2021 Grade: F, the only positive was being able to snag Ryan from the Rays in the Cruz trade. Do you agree with these grades? Is there anything the Twins front office can learn from previous offseasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussions. View full article

Nelson Cruz wasn’t a Twin for long—his Minnesota tenure lasted just 258 games—but few sluggers this side of Hrbek rocked the team with as much bombast and dominance as the man simply called “Boomstick.” Image courtesy of © Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports Signing with Minnesota in 2019 following four fruitful seasons in the Pacific Northwest, Twins fans didn’t know exactly what to expect from the soon-to-be 38-year-old. Sure, he had demolished plenty of baseballs in his career, but old-man authority in a young man’s game was something only Tom Brady and his ilk could accomplish; was Cruz up to the task? Could he turn around a team previously drenched in mediocrity? ------------------------------------ We all still remember the 2019 team. The power and overwhelming home run prowess shocked on a nightly basis, whether it was Miguel Sanó claiming the AL Central with a back-breaking Grand Slam, Max Kepler coming within a stone’s throw of 40 homers, or Ehire Adrianza smacking a solo shot off Justin Verlander to best the Astros in an unlikely victory. No matter your taste, there was a slugger for you; five different players reached the 30-homer mark that season. But overlooking all of them—standing as the unquestioned leader of the group—was Nelson Cruz, slashing .311/.392/.639 in one of the greatest offensive years in Twins history. By OPS, he’s tied with Joe Mauer’s 2009. No one else is higher. Oh, and his 2020 campaign is 6th, smack dab in the middle of a few classic Harmon Killebrews and Chuck Knoblauch’s 1996 season. Cruz joined a team needing more leadership following the 2018 departures of Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, and Joe Mauer. His naps became as famous as his biceps, adding an air of delight to his outlandish power—an attitude that rubbed off on his teammates, who embraced Cruz almost like a father. Minnesota dealt Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, netting Joe Ryan in a return that makes Nelson perhaps the greatest use of a roster spot in Twins history. His rate numbers are staggering: a .304/.386/.598 slashline, and—believe it or not—the highest team OPS+ of his career, just ahead of his run with the Mariners. He was only here for 1,081 plate appearances, but almost all were memorable. Following forgettable stints with the Nationals and Padres, Cruz has called it a career at 42, becoming one of the most memorable veteran sluggers in recent MLB history. Cruz will play one last winter in the Dominican Professional Baseball League as a farewell tour. He'll end his MLB career with 7 All-Star selections, 4 Silver Sluggers, and 464 home runs. The homers are good for 37th all-time, one spot behind Minnesota's own Dave Winfield. View full article

Donovan Solano wasn't the first name most people thought of when looking for a platoon bat last offseason. But many of the names that did come to mind fared much, much worse than he did in 2023. It's going to be hard to find a replacement. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Donovan Solano is a 35-year-old utility infielder with 32 career home runs. He signed for $2 million last offseason to be an emergency option at second or third base and play first base or DH against lefthanded starters for the Twins. Donovan Solano also was third in plate appearances and fourth in OPS among Twins in 2023. Solano was an afterthought coming into 2023. Although he was the National League’s Silver Slugger in the shortened 2020 season, he was never a renowned hitter and was merely league-average at the dish in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, he was no longer considered a good defensive second baseman, mostly playing first base and designated hitter in 2022. Going into the 2023 season, one of the Twins’ top needs was a competent right-handed bat, primarily to platoon and play some corner position. Between Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon in Minnesota, and Edouard Julien in St. Paul, the Twins had more than enough lefties and needed a bit of salt to their pepper. The December signing of lefty Joey Gallo was not that salt. However, by the beginning of spring training, there still was no platoon bat to be found on the roster. It may have ended up being Kyle Garlick by default had Solano not signed for $2 million to no fanfare. It bears repeating that Solano was a top-5 hitter for the Twins. He played first base more than anyone else on the roster—a bat-first position—and he was an above-average hitter, right around the average OPS for first basemen and designated hitters in 2023 (Solano’s OPS was .760—10% above league average—compared to .775 and .756 for first basemen and designated hitters, respectively). With Solano’s contract expiring and him being 36 by the beginning of next season, it seems unlikely he will be back with the Twins in 2024, filling a similar role. Hence, it stands to reason that his role would need a replacement—some sort of right-handed corner bat who can platoon against lefties and tread water against righties if needed. Corner positions are the easiest to find competent bats, so logic would suggest that it shouldn’t take too much work to find someone to fill Solano’s shoes. The Twins themselves found him during spring training and committed 1.3% of the 2023 payroll to him. In theory, these bit players are a dime a dozen. In practice, however, finding the right player requires a bit more work. Now, this role player could already be in the system, as someone like Chris Williams or Michael Helman could be options there. Jose Miranda could regain his footing and take hold of that role as well. However, if the Twins feel more comfortable finding a veteran for that role, they must choose wisely. Let me show you. At the beginning of the season, I selected 10 Solano-adjacent players to follow through the year. They were each free agents coming into 2023 and comparable to Solano in some way, mostly in role, handedness, and salary Among right-handed first base or designated hitter types, I chose Nelson Cruz ($1 million salary), Luke Voit ($2 million with a $12 million team option for 2024), Yuli Gurriel ($1.25 million), Jesus Aguilar ($3.2 million), and Andrew McCutchen ($5 million). I included Mike Moustakas ($740,000) based on name recognition. I also selected right-handed or switch-hitting outfielders Wil Myers ($7 million), Jurickson Profar ($7.75 million), and AJ Pollack ($7 million), as well as third baseman Evan Longoria ($4 million). Had the Twins brought any of those guys to camp, the reaction would probably have been at least at the minimal level that Solano’s was. 2023 went well for Solano. It went poorly for almost every other name on that list. Only McCutchen had an above-average OPS (113 OPS+, compared to Solano’s 110). Longoria was the only player beyond McCutchen to be rated as better than replacement level, per Baseball Reference (1.5 rWAR for McCutchen, 0.5 rWAR for Longoria, 1.8 rWAR for Solano). The other eight players registered negative WAR. Three players had a season OPS that started with a five: Voit (.548), Myers (.541), and Pollock (.524). Gurriel, signed to be Miami’s everyday first baseman, joined McCutchen and Longoria as the only player to remain on the team’s roster all year. However, he played only 108 games and registered 329 plate appearances, compared to Solano’s 134 and 450 plate appearances. The other seven players didn’t make it through the year with their new teams. Colorado traded away Moustakas to the Angels and Profar to the Padres at the deadline. Profar in particular was a curious case, as he left Colorado with -1.7 WAR then only played 14 games for the Padres, but hit quite well in that short opportunity. Pollock was traded for a player to be named later from Seattle to San Francisco, where he had six plate appearances before being released. Cruz and Myers were released by San Diego and Cincinnati, respectively, in the middle of the year. Neither found a place to play out the rest of the season. Aguilar was released by the (with all due respect) opossum shelter that is the Oakland A’s. The Braves signed him but never played a game above AAA. Voit takes the cake for the released crowd, as Milwaukee released him not once but twice. After the second release, he signed with the Mets but didn’t play a game. His $12 million option will not be getting picked up. It’s easy to look at the value that Solano gave the Twins and assume that another affordable corner bat can be picked up easily, but the recent past suggests that finding that savvy veteran bat is more complicated than we might think. View full article

As we reach the current day, those involved with the beginning of this streak have long since left the organization, and few even remain from the 2017 team, but it's still the same story. What even is a Minnesota Twin? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports This is Part 3 of a series looking at how much the Twins organization has turned over since the beginning of the club's infamous 0-18 streak. For the best reading experience, start with Part 2, which reviews the 2004 and 2006 playoff teams and outlines the concepts and aim of this series. 2019: Full-Frontal Offensive Assault One more suit change: a third manager. Rocco Baldelli became the third captain of the ship before the 2019 season. Joe Mauer, the last piece even tangentially related to the 2004 series, had also retired. If you believe that a ship can change if enough boards are removed, we're out of swaps to make unless you're clinging for your life to the Dave St. Peter part. Nothing remains of the 2004 iteration. Most positions have had at least four different players manning them in the intervening iterations. This team, which set the single-season home run record in the regular season, returned several participants in the 2017 Wild Card game. Jorge Polanco, who this year snapped a streak of five consecutive trips to the playoffs with a different starting shortstop, was joined by German Wunderkind Max Kepler, free-swinger Eddie Rosario, Swiss Army knife reliever Taylor Rogers, and Jose Berrios, who was used as a reliever in the 2017 Wild Card but had established himself as the team's top starting pitcher. Lumbering slugger Miguel Sano played third base, which he would have in 2017 had he not had to get a titanium rod put in his leg toward the end of that season. Fellow former ultra-prospect Byron Buxton had played in the 2017 game until an injury at the wall forced his removal, and he had likewise had an early end to his 2019 at the hands of an outfield wall. Added to this fourth core were veteran role players C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Marwin Gonzalez. Nelson Cruz, the best free agent signing in decades for the club, was the clubhouse leader and the team's face. Mitch Garver had emerged as the top catcher, winning a Silver Slugger and starting all three playoff games. Fourth outfielder Jake Cave was pushed into service. A young infielder named Luis Arraez (batting average, ever heard of it!?) started at second base—the sixth different second baseman in six playoff appearances (Cuddyer, Castillo, Punto, Hudson, Dozier, Arraez). Ehire Adrianza and Jason Castro played significant roles on that team but did not see any playoff action despite playing in the 2017 game. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Jake Odorizzi and Randy Dobnak (whose former employment will NOT be mentioned in this piece). The bullpen was almost wholly overhauled between the 2017 Wild Card and 2019 ALDS, including team veterans Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, and Kyle Gibson all pitching out of the bullpen. Frisby-throwing Sergio Romo was also a major cog. Pop-up bullpen pieces in 2019 also made appearances (and many fans will never let you forget it): Cody Stashak and Zack Littell notably pitched in the middle innings, and Devin Smeltzer threw 3.1 scoreless innings after Dobnak's early exit in Game 2. Flame-throwing 20-year-old Brusdar Graterol found his way into a game, also. However, the same shanty continued to be sung. Not even the greatest power offense in baseball history could stop the rising tide. The count is 16. Returning pieces from 2017: José Berríos, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario New pieces in 2019: Luis Arraez, Jake Cave, C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Kyle Gibson, Marwin Gonzalez, Brusdar Graterol, Zack Littell, Trevor May, Jake Odorizzi, Sergio Romo, Miguel Sanó, Jonathan Schoop, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2020: The Ghost Ship Let's just say that the world contracted scurvy and leave it at that. The most recent trip to the postseason for your Minnesota Twins came at the end of a truncated 60-game season with an expanded playoff structure, so the Twins were only guaranteed two games. The streak could only grow by two games, max. It's striking how similar the 2020 team was to the 2019 team in its construction. Nearly all significant players returned to run it back, though on the hitting side Schoop and Cron—both 20-homer hitters, mind you, hit free agency. Arraez was prepared to take over second base fully, and former MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson, the largest free agent signing in team history to that point, bumped Sano over to Cron's spot at first base. Donaldson was not healthy enough for the playoffs, so he doesn't even factor into this discussion. Buxton was dealing with a brain injury following getting plunked in the head during the last series of the season, but he still unadvisedly started the first game and pinch-ran in the second, getting picked off at first in a crucial moment. Alex Kirilloff debuted in the playoffs that year. Ryan Jeffers started at catcher, partly due to his hot start to his career but also because of injuries and a lack of effectiveness in the other catchers. These two represented the first appearance of a fifth core. Willians Astudillo, a member of the 2019 team who did a little bit of everything a little bit less than optimally and true backup catcher Alex Avila were the only two other new batters who played in the 2020 Wild Card. However, they registered one plate appearance combined. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Kenta Maeda, who finished second in the AL Cy Young voting after coming over in a trade that sent Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers. There were only two games, so there were only two starting pitchers. Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, and Stashak all returned to throw in the 2020 playoffs, the first four representing the high-leverage portion of the bullpen, but Stashak is best remembered as a cudgel used to criticize Baldelli for bullpen mismanagement. He replaced Berrios in the sixth inning of Game 2, allowing the winning run in his second frame of relief. Minnesota local Caleb Thielbar made his heroic return to the big leagues—after taking a coaching job at Division II Augustana in Sioux Falls—in 2020 and pitched in Game 1. Gibson had left in free agency after 2019, and although Littell and Smeltzer each saw time during the regular season, neither contributed to the Twins' postseason efforts. The count is 18. Returning pieces from 2019: Luis Arraez, José Berríos, Jake Cave, Nelson Cruz, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Cody Stashak New pieces in 2020: Willians Astudillo, Alex Avila, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirlloff, Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar Italics indicate the player is no longer in the Minnesota Twins organization (2023) Summary and Looking Ahead Props to you for getting this far. It's at nearly 5,000 words. And many painful memories have been drudged through, but I find it fascinating, and I hope you did too. With Joe Pohlad taking the reins of the team as the club's principal owner, there have been three owners since the streak started. The GM position has changed four times. There have been three managers. The last contributors in the 2004 series left the team over a decade ago. Almost all of Joe Mauer's potential Hall of Fame career was encompassed in this streak. Only three players from the 2017 Wild Card are slated to play in the 2023 postseason—Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco—and Buxton doesn't look promising. Kepler and Polanco are the only returning members from the 2019 playoffs. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Thielbar, Kirilloff, and Jeffers are the members returning from the 2020 squad. The Twins have brought in several veteran depth pieces like Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor—you know their names by now; I won't go through a whole roster again. They have a new, bona fide, archetypal captain placed at the center of the clubhouse in Carlos Correa. They also have more parts of the fifth core making statements. Former number one overall pick Royce Lewis, eagle-eyed French Canadian Superhunk Edouard Julien, and all-around power Minnesotan Matt Wallner have each been considerable additions to this team, and it's starting to be built around them, as the remnants of the fourth core—Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler—begin to age out. This is the fifth core that's had a chance to end the streak. It's frankly absurd. Only two players have been part of four trips to the postseason—Cuddyer and Mauer—and they're long gone. Kepler and Polanco will add their names to that list in 2023. Before this year's postseason, 98 different Twins have played in a postseason game since the last time they registered a win. None of them have been able to break the streak. But let's go back to where we started. Do the Twins really have an 18-game losing streak dating back to 2004? Are these Twins those Twins? They've rebranded twice. They moved out of their old stadium. They're located in a new city. They even replaced their new scoreboard with a new scoreboard. I've heard a lot about the new scoreboard. Regardless of your definition, the organization fully turned over at least once during that time. Is it even accurate to claim that these are the same teams? I know that this type of question has been asked every year for the past decade, along with stats about how old some of the Twins were the last time they won a playoff game, but it's worth pondering what ties one iteration of a team to another. If the only thing that remains of the original team is the name, then why do we care? I wish I had an answer. The Twins have lost 18 straight. I'm not trying to argue against that. That absurdity could have broken my brain to the extent that I'm citing Plutarch on a silly little fan site about grown men donning stirrups and playing games of rounders at the old ballyard. But I hope that you were able to enjoy the trip down memory lane. I know I enjoyed writing this. Let's load up the Friend Ship and set sail. View full article

The Minnesota Twins 2019 team home run record is being threatened and a familiar face is helping lead the charge. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports For the Minnesota Twins, 2019 was one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory. While it ended with another postseason collapse, it was marked by a much different offense than Twins fans had recently become accustomed to. Coming off an era where the offense was most commonly referred to as a nibbling group of carnivorous fish, they seemingly overnight turned into Jaws and could take out opposing pitchers in one big bite. That led to the Twins claiming the single-season team home run record by hitting 307 home runs and gaining the moniker “The Bomba Squad.” In 2023, that record is under fire by none other than the National League-leading Atlanta Braves. On the way to the season of 307 home runs, the Twins had ten players who hit at least 10 home runs. Five of those players, Nelson Cruz (41), Max Kepler (36), Miguel Sano (34), Eddie Rosario (32), and Mitch Garver (31) had over 30 home runs on the season. C.J. Cron (25), Jonathan Schoop (23), and Jorge Polanco (22) made it over the 20 home run mark. As of this writing, the Braves are on pace to hit 309 home runs as a club. Matt Olson is leading the charge for the Braves by hitting 43 home runs to this point. That is already two more than the Twins leader Cruz had in 2019. Marcell Ozuna (31) and Austin Riley (32) are also above 30 home runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. (31) also just joined the 30 home run club Thursday night as he became the first player in MLB history to hit 30 home runs and steal 60 bases in the same season. Ozzie Albies (28) is just behind them. Something especially interesting is Eddie Rosario is now on the Braves squad and looking to grab the team home run title for a second time. While Rosario struggled initially after leaving the Twins, he has, like so many, found a productive home in Atlanta. He currently sits at 20 home runs and is hitting .262/.314/.487 with an .801 OPS. The Twins themselves are still a power-hitting club. Minnesota is still far behind Atlanta, sitting sixth in the MLB with 187 home runs. Max Kepler leads the way for the Twins with 21 home runs. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are at the 20 home run mark. In comparison, Kepler is a repeat of the 2019 team; the other leaders are of a much different makeup here in 2023. As Twins fans, we will focus most on the magic number to win the division. We can certainly glance occasionally to see if the Bomba Squad’s mark will hold or if the Braves take over the top spot. No matter what, we can hold onto the fact that “he was out.” View full article

The Twins have struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers in recent years. There are multiple reasons for those struggles, but Byron Buxton's streakiness is the main culprit. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports In 2019, the Twins mashed their way to the home run record by blitzing starting pitchers and compiling substantial offensive numbers. Obviously, there have been multiple changes to the Twins since that season, but one growing issue is the team's inability to hit left-handed pitching. Byron Buxton has been one of the team's most critical right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. Multiple factors have impacted his performance, including knee and back issues that have plagued him in 2023. Let's look back over the last three seasons to see how the team fared against lefties, what right-handed hitters should have been producing, and how Buxton's streakiness tied to the team's output. 2021 Season Only two AL teams had a lower OPS against left-handed pitchers than the Twins during the 2021 season. Minnesota's team OPS was nearly 20 points lower against lefties than righties. Besides Buxton, the Twins had multiple right-handed bats that should have done damage against lefties, including Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz. Sano struggled against lefties with an OPS over 100 points lower than his career mark. Donaldson and Cruz destroyed Southpaws as both posted an OPS above .900 in their final season with the Twins. Polanco is better at batting from the left side, but he posted an .803 OPS against lefties. Buxton was limited to 61 games during the 2021 season but still finished second on the team, according to rWAR. He played three total games between May 7th and August 26th. He ended the year with a .997 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but he was unavailable for a large chunk of the season while the team struggled to a last-place finish. Minnesota's overall numbers would look better if injuries hadn't sidelined Buxton for most of the season. 2022 Season Minnesota added Carlos Correa, a powerful right-handed bat, leading into the 2022 season, and the club saw some offensive improvement. Correa started slowly but continued to hit well against lefties and finished the season with a .945 OPS. Jose Miranda compiled substantial numbers during his rookie season and posted a .512 SLG against Southpaws. As a team, the Twins finished with the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers while ranking 17th overall in wRC+. Buxton was one of baseball's best hitters in the first half on the way to being selected to his first All-Star Game. He posted an .824 OPS in the first half with 11 doubles, three triples, and 23 home runs. Buxton was also among the team's best hitters against lefties with a .917 OPS in 114 PA. Unfortunately, he was limited to 19 games in the second half while the Twins fell out of contention in the AL Central. 2023 Season Entering the season, the Twins hoped Correa, Buxton, and Miranda would build off their 2022 success to form a trio of lefty killers in the middle of the line-up. Miranda has been ineffective because of a shoulder injury that has bothered him since spring training. Correa and Buxton have also yet to live up to their high expectations. Evaluators expected Correa to be among the AL's leaders in WAR, but he finished a disappointing first half as a candidate for Least Valuable Player. Minnesota has reached a new low against lefties this season, with the non-contending Rockies being the only club with a lower wRC+ and OPS. The Twins shifted Buxton to DH this season in hopes of having him available more regularly. He is on pace to play over 100 games for the second time in his big-league career, but his performance has continued to struggle. He has hit .162/.244/.338 (.582) with seven extra-base hits and a 28-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86 PA versus lefties. There have been long stretches where Buxton has looked lost at the plate, and the team's lefty struggles have increased while his bat has gone cold. Do you feel like Buxton's streakiness is to blame? Will the Twins be able to solve their offensive woes against lefties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

If the Twins miss the playoff this season, widespread organizational changes will likely occur. One of the changes could be the firing of manager Rocco Baldelli. If Baldelli gets fired, would former Twins slugger Nelson Cruz make sense as his successor? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports The last three and a half months of Twins fandom has felt like being forced to open a cursed Matryoshka doll. The first and largest doll is an inept offense. The next doll is a stubborn front office who won't part ways with players. The third doll is star players being injured or underperforming. So on and so forth. There has been a yin-and-yang nature about this Twins team all season. They will look competent against teams like the Royals and Athletics but then completely submit and get swept by teams like the Braves or Orioles. To quote pop icon, Olivia Rodrigo, "It's always one step forward and three steps back." Consistently beating bad teams is a good thing, and it may be enough to win this year's AL Central crown, as the Twins have the easiest remaining strength of schedule for any team in baseball, but this team is something other than a real contender. Although the Twins' chances of making the playoffs this year are favorable (75% on Fangraphs and 81.5% on Baseball Reference), it is evident that they cannot play at the same level as some of the best teams in the American League. Excuses and justifications have been and will continue to be made, but action needs to be taken by those in charge. And if the Twins miss the playoffs, that action must be extreme. Passivity will no longer do. The great auteurist Wes Anderson once wrote, "You can't wake up if you don't fall asleep." In my interpretation, this quote means that we, as people, cannot genuinely move on or accept something that has happened to us until we go through a genuine period of emotional mourning and acceptance. When applied to the 2023 Twins, Anderson's quote can be interpreted as if the Twins miss the playoffs this year, and they would need to sleep or reset if they ever want to wake up as an organization. This idea has been nearly impossible for the Pohlad family to accept in years past, but with new executive chair Joe Pohlad at the helm, this upcoming off-season may be different. To genuinely pursue a sense of awakening, or progression, the first step Joe Pohlad would have to make is relieving President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey, Manager Rocco Baldelli, and the Twins coaching staff of their duties. At the moment, that feels like an unlikelihood, but in a recent interview with Star Tribune's Jim Souhan, Pohlad expressed a sense of urgency that has opened eyes amongst those who follow the Twins closely. If the Twins fail to win the lowly American League Central and miss the playoffs for the third season, would Pohlad fire Falvey? It feels unlikely, as Pohlad and Falvey appear to have incredible respect and an overall relationship with one another. Even so, the Twins would be forced to make organizational shake-ups, and the most logical shake-up would be to fire Baldelli. The firing of Baldelli would be a surprise that would feel like a scapegoating tactic, but change, even if symbolic, is better than blatant stagnation. If Baldelli got fired, who would be the best option to replace him? A fascinating option is former Twins slugger Nelson Cruz. Cruz, 43, was designated for assignment by the San Diego Padres on July 4 and eventually released. Despite allegedly drawing interest from teams around the league, Cruz's recent release may signify the end of his playing career. Despite Cruz's playing days destined to conclude very soon, that doesn't mean his involvement in Major League Baseball is ending. It may open up the door for a new chapter, his managerial chapter. During the past World Baseball Classic, Cruz served as the General Manager of the Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Team. Cruz also played for the team serving as the primary designated hitter. Despite not managing the team in-game, Cruz was in a position of power, having to construct a team and make player-centric decisions, similar to the responsibilities a Major League manager is tasked with on a game-to-game basis. During his relatively brief time with Minnesota from 2019-2021, Cruz had a significant presence in the clubhouse, and many viewed him as the leader of the infamous 2019 Bomba Squad. Despite Jorge Alcala, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton being the last remaining members of the Bomba Squad, Cruz's impact has remained in Minnesota, and his return as a manager would be welcomed with open arms by both players and ownership. Also, the Twins have a robust Latino presence on their current team, with 16 members of the 40-man roster of Latino descent. Major League Baseball has the most substantial Latino presence it has ever had, yet there are only four Major League managers of Latino descent. By the end of the 2023 season, only one manager of Latino descent could be left in Alex Cora, as Oliver Marmol, Dave Martinez, and Pedro Grifol could be relieved of their duties due to poor team performance. Similarly to Black coaches in the National Football League, coaches of Latino descent deserve more opportunities in Major League Baseball. And Cruz is a coaching candidate of Latino descent that should be pursued if the Twins do, in fact, fire Baldelli. Do Former Players Perform Well as First-Time Managers? This is an interesting question, as sometimes they do and sometimes they do not. Let's look at recent former players' who recently stepped away from playing in the MLB's first seasons as full-time managers: Craig Counsell, Brewers (2016): 73-89 Dave Roberts, Dodgers (2016): 91-71 Aaron Boone, Yankees (2018): 100-62 Alex Cora, Red Sox (2018): 108-54 (WS Champions) Gabe Kapler, Phillies (2018): 80-82 Rocco Baldelli, Twins (2019): 101-60 David Ross, Cubs (2020): 34-26 Mark Kotsay, Athletics (2022): 60-102 Skip Schumaker, Marlins (2023): Currently 53-43 Five of the eight managers on this list had winning records in their first seasons, and Schumaker projects to have a winning record. A 62% success rate is nothing to overlook, but context is needed. Boone, Roberts, and Ross inherited above-average rosters with winning expectations, Cora cheated, and the juiced ball helped Baldelli and the 2019 Twins immensely. On the other hand, Kotsay, Kapler, and Counsell were handed lowly teams without a strong foundation or the expectation of winning. First-time managers, and managers in general, shouldn't be given too much praise or blame, as what happens on the field is largely out of their hands. Despite this being the case, managers do control the environment and overall culture their 26-man roster breeds. For example, a huge reason why the Cardinals, who are 43-53, are struggling this year could be because their manager, Oliver Marmol, has created a toxic and aggressive environment. On the flip side, the Marlins, who are 53-45, are performing so well this year because Schumaker created an inclusive and welcoming environment where players tend to thrive. What would Cruz's expectations be? It depends on if Pohlad decides to fire Falvey. If Falvey stays, fans can expect more of the same as the front office is the control center of the Twins organization, and Falvey's process won't change as long as he remains the President of Baseball Operations. The Twins will platoon, pinch-hit, be stubborn about keeping veterans to maintain depth, etc. If Pohlad fires Falvey, expectations for Cruz and a hypothetical new front become an open door. The 2024 Twins team that Cruz would be inheriting compares most notably to the 2020 Cubs team that Ross inherited. The 2020 Cubs, who finished 34-26 in the COVID shortened 2020 season, were headlined by star players Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and frontline starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks finished first place in the NL Central before getting swept 2-0 by the Miami Marlins in the shortened three-game Wild Card round. If fully actualized, the 2020 Cubs were on pace for an 88-74 record, and this Twins roster feels like an 88-win team. A core of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Bailey Ober, with a blossoming Edouard Julien, and potential star in Brooks Lee is a roster that, if managed correctly, is capable of winning divisional titles and playoff games. Cruz has the qualities of a great manager. A voice that is heard and respected, the ability to create genuine and healthy relationships with players, and a strong presence within the clubhouse. Would he thrive in game theory and making decisions like when to pull a starting pitcher and which reliever to use? That is unknown. But Cruz has played professional baseball for 19 years and has been around the game for much longer. Taking chances on former players as first-time managers feels risky, but it has proven to be a success almost two-thirds of the time in recent history. If the Twins move on from Baldelli this off-season and Cruz elects to retire from playing, they should consider hiring Cruz as their next manager. What do you think? Should the Twins consider hiring Nelson Cruz if they fire Rocco Baldelli this upcoming off-season? Comment below. View full article

Twins fans are blinded by nostalgia when it comes to 2019's Twins' Bomba Squad. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports In 2019, the Twins put together one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. They won 101 games - second-best in Twins history - and cruised to a division win. Known as the Bomba Squad, the team broke numerous home run records, including MLB’s team record of 307, and they had five players hit 30 or more home runs. It looked like a youth movement was leading the way, but sustained success eluded them, both in the postseason and in subsequent years. In the postseason, the Yankees swept the Twins. pushing their playoff losing streak to 16 games. People look back at that team as one of the few times the Twins could be considered "true contenders," but in reality, they are blinded by nostalgia. The failures of the team all come down to sustained success. Sustained success is something that has been echoed time and time again since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the team in 2016. The reasoning behind it is simple: anything can happen in the playoffs. The more times you make the playoffs, the more chances you have to go on a World Series run. The primary way to achieve this level of success is through team control. When trading at the deadline, players are often acquired as rentals. But trading for players with a year or two of team control gives the receiving team much more value. The same goes for signing team-friendly contract extensions. The Twins have committed to this philosophy in recent years through multiple moves. Pablo Lopez - traded for with two years of team control Chris Paddack - traded for with three years of team control and then a contract extension Tyler Mahle - traded for with 1.5 years of team control Jorge Lopez - traded for with 2.5 years of team control Gio Urshela - trade for with two years of team control Controlling players for multiple years solidifies parts of the team while also giving the organization the financial freedom to build around these players. In 2019, however, the organization ditched this idea. 2018 was a disappointing year, and in the following offseason, the Twins decided to fill their gaps with one-year rentals. It started in November when the Twins filled their first base gap by picking up CJ Cron off of waivers. Then they signed Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal at second base, followed up by a one-year deal (plus a team option) to aging slugger Nelson Cruz. In February 2019, the Twins acquired Marwin Gonzalez for a two-year deal. To "fix" their issues in the rotation, they signed Martin Perez to a one-year deal. Notice the pattern here? It would have been easy to write off the season, except all those rentals started off hot and propelled the team into playoff contention. It became even more complicated as the season went on. By midseason, the one-year rentals were already starting to decline. Cron got hurt and had a bad second half. Perez had a hot start but got rocked the rest of the season. Schoop had a bad month in June and was mostly replaced by the up-and-coming Luis Arraez. Only Cruz continued to shine and was awarded the team MVP as a 39-year-old. By the time the trade deadline rolled around, either the front office felt that the early season success truly was sustainable despite warning signs, or they felt pressured to make a move to push the team further into contention. They added Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo was decent to finish the year, and the Dyson trade is arguably one of the worst of Derek Falvey's time. In the end, the acquisitions didn't matter enough, and the Twins fell short of the Yankees in the ALDS. The 2019 team produced great memories but had a lack of substance behind them. When one takes a step back and looks at the whole picture, one realizes how deceptive the year was in evaluating the Twins' future. The 2019 Twins were entertaining to watch, but when it comes to their effect on the franchise, people are blinded by nostalgia. View full article

Over the past handful of years we have seen front offices re-evaluate how they go about paying sluggers. While the designated hitter has become universal, and there are some players truly not fit to play in the field, most boppers must now possess more than just power potential. This trend is working against two ex-Twins who provided explosive power for the Twins' 2019 Bomba Squad. Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports We rarely see players like Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter on the baseball diamond anymore. The Baltimore Orioles immediately looked questionable when giving Chris Davis a bloated deal as analytics began to weigh on-base percentages differently. Both Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz have shown a better approach than some of the aforementioned names, but as each heads elsewhere you have to wonder what either have left. Recently the San Diego Padres signed Cruz for just $1 million. That is his lowest yearly salary since he was 29-years-old back in 2010. Expected to get plenty of designated hitter at bats for the Padres, there was very little evidence that the aging process had not have caught up to Cruz a season ago. Playing 124 games with the Washington Nationals, Cruz posted a paltry .651 OPS and 90 OPS+. His 148 OPS+ with the Twins in 2021 was all but gone, and he began a steep decline with the Tampa Bay Rays after he was traded midseason. Cruz still hit ten homers last year, but his .313 OBP was a far-cry from the .344 mark he has put up over the course of his career. Cruz rebounded from the .283 OBP he posted with the Rays in 55 games last year, but his slugging percentage dropping to .337 really limits what the potential upside is. Of course, the Padres aren’t making a significant financial commitment by any means, but Steamer projections have him tabbed for just 0.2 fWAR a .714 OPS and nine home runs. It’s hard to see how that type of output lasts in the lineup all year. Then there is Sano. Playing in only 20 games for Minnesota last year, he posted an unfathomably bad -0.9 fWAR. By the end of the season he was all but asked to leave the team, and there doesn’t appear to be a reunion tour coming. While Jeremy Nygaard wrote a great piece on Sano, it would be shocking to see Minnesota reopen that door. What I do think remains possible is that Sano finds himself still being a productive slugger. A season ago Sano was hurt. Injuring his meniscus and then having rehab go both slowly and poorly, he never worked himself back into shape. That has been part of the bugaboo his whole career, and tapping into a newfound work ethic probably isn’t something that a new team be able to rely upon. Sano at his baseline though can still get it done in stretches. During 2021, the Twins saw Sano post a 112 OPS+ and blast 30 home runs. His .819 OPS and 119 OPS+ excluding last year is a better offensive profile than Joey Gallo, and Sano has always shown a solid ability to draw walks and command the strike zone. He has rarely been a free-swinger, struggling more with whiffs on velocity than anything, and there has never been a doubt about his immense power. What should be notable here is that perception of personality matters. A 42-year-old Nelson Cruz is getting a chance because he brings a great clubhouse presence. The Padres can afford to jettison him if he is truly cooked. Miguel Sano is still looking for his next gig, and while it most likely will need to be a minor league deal, his suitors are not as plentiful given the track record he has accumulated. There is probably a path for Sano to have a better season than Cruz, and even by a substantial margin. The question is who will bite the bullet on allowing it to play out? View full article

Time is running out for the Twins to add to the team's 2023 roster. So, do any of the top remaining free agents fit with the Twins? Image courtesy of Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Ranking free agents can be a challenging exercise, especially at this point in the off-season when many of the top names are off the board. On Sunday, MLB Trade Rumors updated their list of the best remaining free agents at each position, which includes some players that are potential fits for the Twins. Here is a rundown of that list and how each player fits with Minnesota's 2023 roster. Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto Minnesota showed some interest in Cueto last winter but went in a different direction to sign Chris Archer. At the time, the Twins wanted someone ready to jump into the rotation, and Cueto didn't make an appearance until May 16. In 2022, he made 25 starts for the White Sox and posted a 3.35 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. There are rumors the Twins might be interested in Michael Wacha, who would be the next best free-agent starter. Teams can never have too much starting pitching, but the club's younger arms offer more upside. Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin The Twins have done little to add to the bullpen, and a few reliable relievers are left on the market. Chafin is intriguing because he is left-handed, and Minnesota's only lefty relievers are Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran. He posted a 10.5 K/9 last season with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He's shown the ability to be effective against righties and lefties, which should secure him a late-inning role with a contending club. Former Twin Michael Fulmer is the best right-handed reliever, and that move makes sense for Minnesota if Chafin signs elsewhere. Catcher: Gary Sanchez Catcher was one of Minnesota's most significant needs this winter, but the club already signed Christian Vazquez to a multi-year deal. The Twins saw plenty of Sanchez during the 2022 campaign, and the team was looking for a better defensive option. It seems highly unlikely for Sanchez to be back in a Twins uniform. First Base: Trey Mancini Last week, I wrote about Mancini being a target for the Twins because he gets some time in the outfield and bats right-handed. However, he posted reverse splits last season, so he might not be the best candidate for this role. Minnesota likely has enough options for first base, with Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff getting most of the reps and other players filling in as needed. Signing Mancini makes more sense if the Twins traded any of their other first-base options. Second Base: Josh Harrison Harrison posted a 94 OPS+ in 119 games for the White Sox last season while providing plenty of value on the defensive side. He can fill a veteran utility player role, especially since he ranked in the 84th percentile for Outs Above Average. Minnesota's second base depth chart is already full with Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and Edouard Julien. Shortstop: Elvis Andrus Obviously, Carlos Correa is not officially signed with the New York Mets, and MLBTR was assuming his deal will have a pen to paper. Andrus might be a slight upgrade over current Twins shortstop Kyle Farmer, but they offer similar overall value. Andrus likely wants to play for a team where he will get regular playing time, and the Twins might not be that place for him. Minnesota can add him as another infield option if his market continues to be cold, but that seems unlikely. Third Base: Brian Anderson Earlier this winter, the Twins traded Gio Urshela to open up a regular third base job for Jose Miranda. Anderson's defense declined at third base last season, and he's averaged a 90 OPS+ over the last two seasons. He has some experience in the outfield, so the Twins may be interested in him being a right-handed bench bat. Corner Outfield: Jurickson Profar Besides Correa, Profar is the best free agent left on the market. Last season, he hit .243/.331/.391 (.723) with a 111 OPS+ and a career-high 36 doubles. Profar could fit with the Twins because he is a switch hitter and played exclusively in left field last season. Minnesota has Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo penciled into two outfield spots, while Profar could occupy left. It seems more likely for the Twins to use other internal options in the outfield, with the club already having too many corner outfield options. Center Field: Albert Almora Almora is tremendous as a defensive center fielder, but he is substantially below average at the plate. The Twins hope to have Byron Buxton start more than 51 games in center this year. Also, Gilberto Celestino has plenty of upside, even though he still needs to put it all together at the big-league level. Almora isn't signing with the Twins. Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz Twins fans can dream of Cruz returning to the middle of the team's line-up, but he isn't the same hitter he was two years ago. In 2022, he hit .234/.313/.337 (.651) with a 90 OPS+. He's also entering his age 42 season, so there are no guarantees he will rediscover his swing. Cruz had plenty of memorable moments for the Twins, but the club was lucky to move on from him. Which of these players is the best fit with the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have prized depth on their roster and optionality in their processes. Their approach to MLB free agency has reflected that fact. Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports MLB free agency is really one name for two overlapping but distinct tasks. One of those is finding short-term answers to immediate problems. In this aspect, a front office needs to reinforce thin areas on their roster; balance the pursuit of upside with the necessity of setting a firm floor for a given roster spot; and husband their resources as closely as possible. They need to fill holes without leaving themselves ossified or cornered when the opportunity or the need to change tack arises. The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial. That’s because, ultimately, having star-caliber players is a non-negotiable prerequisite for consistent contention. To longtime baseball fans, this can seem like the vapid talk of a cotton-headed basketball or football fan. No individual can have the same impact on a ball club as LeBron James can have on a basketball team, or even the impact that any of several good quarterbacks can have on their rosters. One of baseball’s beautiful characteristics is that depth will out, and that good teams are unavoidably reliant upon a broader base of contributors. Every roster spot matters, and stars can’t carry subpar fellows very far. The bottom 60 percent of a 26- and a 40-man roster needs to be full of guys who hew closer to average than to the replacement level, or else a team will stall out over the long season. True though that might be when it comes to analyzing a team based on its two or three best players, it fades into irrelevance if you judge a team by its seven or eight best. Good teams need above-average players—not a couple of them, but a cadre. It’s simple math, really. If you have that army of credible, almost-good players rounding out the bottom of the roster, you’ve set a floor somewhere between 70 and 75 wins. If the top handful of batters and pitchers are each just a win above average, though, you can’t push much past 85 wins. Teams with real chances of reaching and causing trouble in the postseason, and especially those who stand any chance of doing so multiple times in a span of a few years, need to have clear paths to 90 wins or more. A deeper dive into players who post a 4+ WAR tells why the Twins have been coming up short against the more elite teams in the American League, including in the postseason. But we reward our Caretakers with the meatier stories like this, since they’re the ones that support paying writers for a more thorough examination. If you would like to join them, you can read this story and also get other perks, like a free ticket to the Winter Meltdown, meet and greets, special recognition in the comments sections, and more exclusive in-depth explorations of Twins topics. Just sign up here. We would love to have you join the hundreds of people that value having Twins stories, rumors and conversation 365 days per year. Thank you for considering it. View full article

Carlos Correa's "super agent" Scott Boras described the Minnesota Twins as "fishing in the ocean" just a week before Correa signed a 13-year $350M deal with the San Francisco Giants. At the time, the Twins were in the middle of a heated bidding war for the superstar short stop. that saw them offer a franchise record 10-year $280M contract. As we know, the Twins were unwilling to get to the 13 year threshold that the Giants offered, and he will now assumingly play out the remainder of his career in the The Golden City. Some Twins fans immediately took to bashing the front office for their inability to give Correa whatever he wanted because he said he wanted to remain in Minnesota. Other fans were just excited that the Twins had seemingly taken a step up by offering such a lucrative contract, and were now big players in the free agent game. Fishing in the ocean. Fast forward just a few short days, and the Twins have finally began spending the surplus of money they had sitting unoccupied on the payroll. They started by signing Christian Vasquez, an elite defensive catcher who holds his own at the plate, to a 3-year $30M deal. They followed the Vasquez signing up by landing Joey Gallo, a former superstar with as much raw power as anyone in the league, to a 1-year $11M contract. This is clearly just the start of a Twins plan that is starting to formulate and fall into place, however, many Twins fans have voiced their displeasure with the team's lack of ability to reel in the big fish. Do these fans have a real gripe? Should the Twins be throwing around $200M contracts more frequently? The fun answer would be yes. It would be awesome to navigate an offseason and trade deadline with the same aggressiveness as the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but is that the blueprint that the Twins should follow when their payroll sits right around $160M? I think the last five years have taught us that when it comes to winning a championship, there are many was to skin a cat, and maybe the Twins should shift their approach. 2020-2022 Offseasons The years 2020-2022 brought us some of the most exciting offseason moments we could have ever hoped for as Twins fans. Prior to the 2020 season, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a 4-year $92M contract, which was the richest contract they had ever given to a free agent to date. The Donaldson signing was one of the most exciting offseason moments of my Twins fandom. The Donaldson era on the field was one chock-full with injuries and disappointment. He was eventually dumped off on the Yankees in a trade for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in order to get Donaldson's contract off the books. His former Twins teammates were rather vocal about how they felt about Donaldson in his time in Minnesota, and it wasn't good. The Twins avoided the disaster of living out his 4-year deal by giving him away to the Yankees, who have also had their fair share of issues with Donaldson. Donaldson's two year stint with the Twins could've left a bad taste in the Twins mouth when it came to signing big free agents, but it didn't, as made evident by excitement displayed by fans when the Twins made the biggest move in franchise history following the Donaldson trade. I remember waking up groggy eyed and looking at my phone when I saw the Minnesota Twins had signed Carlos Correa. Despite it being 6 a.m., I danced around my room screaming like an idiot until I lost my voice, got light headed, and decided to sit down. The Correa signing came out of no where, as there was never any reported interest between either party until the news broke that he was coming to Minnesota on a 3-year $105M deal that included opt out options after each of the first two seasons. Correa's time in Minnesota could not have been more different than Donaldson's. He was a fantastic leader and player, and left a very positive impact on the Twins. This is the reason they decided the 28-year-old was worth a 10-year $280M contract. Correa remained healthy and performed for much of the season, but he alone wasn't enough to make the Twins successful. As the players around Correa fell one by one to injury throughout the season, the Twins were forced to play a handful of players who were not Major League quality players. The season winded down to a disastrous end came and Correa opted out, leaving fans wondering what the Twins would do. In most Twins fans minds, after the last few offseasons, the only way to become a championship caliber team was to throw around as much cash as humanly possible and sign as many big named free agents as there were on the market. This is the exciting way to operate, but is it the best way for a mid-market team to go about their business? 2019 Offseason In 2018 the Twins went 78-84 and fired their manager Paul Moliter. They went into the 2018-2019 offseason with plenty of young talent on the roster, but also plenty of holes to fill. The Twins followed a different model in this particular winter than they have in the offseasons since. In this offseason, the Twins started by signing low to mid level free agents like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Martin Perez. The Twins made their first big move of the winter when they signed the 38-year-old home run slugging DH Nelson Cruz to a 1-year $12M contract. They followed it up by signing the former World Series Champion Marwin Gonzalez to a 2-year $21M deal. This offseason saw them sign mid level free agents to short term, low risk, high reward contracts. The result of this plan just so happened to be one of the most memorable seasons in Twins history. The 2019 "Bomba Squad" won 101 games and won the AL Central. The team was fun, exciting, and very deep. It was built with a strong emphasis on depth, developing their own young players, and bringing in veteran players who provided good leadership on short term deals. What's This Mean? Maybe nothing. It's a small sample size, but I can't help but feel that this offseason is shaping up very much like the one that led the Twins to an all-too-fun 101 win season. The 2023 Twins team already has a lot of talent, and most of that talent is rather youthful. They have pivoted from the large, flashy contracts, and have focused on short term deals that could end up paying off big time if they hit. Take Joey Gallo for example. If he reverts the the 2021 version of himself that contributed 4.7 Wins Above Replacement, they could have themselves a massive asset for a very manageable price. If he sucks, the Twins will wash their hands of him, and it's essentially no harm, no foul. The Twins front office has received a ton of criticism for the lack of moves so far this winter, but I refuse to overreact to an unfinished product. The moves are coming, and I believe the Twins will compete in 2023, pushing to win a very weak AL Central. The flashy moves the Twins have made the last few seasons have been fun. I will always get excited when I see a big name connected with the Twins. I will continue to lose my mind any time the Twins manage to bring one of those big fish to Minnesota. I'm not saying the Twins can't win by making these moves. My main point here is that the Twins have yet to find any success from signing star free agents to lucrative contracts. Instead of screaming at the top of our lungs to fire the whole front office, maybe we can take a step back and let the entirety of the offseason fall into place before we start criticizing. Let Falvey cook. Deep breaths. We've been here before. What are your thoughts on the offseason this far? What are your hopes for the future? Let me know, and as always, Go Twins!