jorgenswest

Enjoyed the game. Glad Ryan is on the team.

For this discussion it would be helpful to distinguish between players traded in their last year of their contract and players traded with multiple years left. It is also important to distinguish if it was a trade of minor leaguers or a trade of players without options. Cleveland has been very good at identifying minor leaguers. They had to trade Clevinger. The players were not going to have him back on the team. That leaves Civale for Manzardo. Manzardo has produced 1.0 WAR this year. Arias acquired in the Clevenger trade is at 1.1 WAR. To me the debate is whether they should trade with players multiple years of control or trade when the contract is expiring. I would wait. Cleveland has mostly waited also.

Can’t concur here. It is possibly irrational hope. I would think trades from their prospect pool could make them competitive next year and are a better route than free agency. Some good bats move every winter. They are allowed to win those deals. I believe there exists a front office and manager that can make this team competitive next year with the foundation of Lopez and Ryan in the rotation. I also am extremely skeptical that they can acquire impact prospects for Ryan or Lopez. The best they could do in the summer purge was the catcher Tait who is years away and according to Fangraphs a high risk FV 45+. A 45 has the projection of a platoon utility player. MLB has him at 50 or an average regular. I would rather keep the potential of them starting 64 games next year. Those games matter. I will be watching or listening. I also think they have a positive impact on the young roster that has value.

I have seen several comments across threads that the Twins need to run their organization more like the Guardians. It made me wonder how the current Giardian team was built. In particular I wondered how many of the players were acquired in trade where the Cleveland had traded off a player with more than one year of service time. The Cleveland roster is constructed mostly of players drafted or acquired as free agent (international, minor league, rule 5). They have identified and developed those players well. There are a some players acquired in minor trades or trades in which Cleveland sent the prospects. A few where the player was in the last year of his contract. Kluber was on the last year of his contract when they acquired Clase. He was also 34 and headed towards decline. I think two were acquired as part of a deal for a player with multiple years of service time. Gabriel Arias was acquired in the Clevinger deal during the COVID season. Clevinger. You might Clevinger had forced their hand with his actions and was optioned to the alternate training site. Arias had an FV of 40+ at the time. The other is the trade of Aaron Civale for Kyle Manzardo. Ironically this trade was with the Rays who supposedly make trades the other direction to build their roster. I will have to investigate them also. The Guardians have not built their roster with trades of players with multiple years of service time like that of Lopez or Ryan or Duran, Jax and Varland. They built it on drafting and development. They built it on identifying players in other organizations they can acquire in minor deals or for deals of players on expiring contracts.

Was this directed at me? I don’t believe I have ever used the word tanking or implied that players were tanking in any way. I didn’t in that comment. I certainly don’t believe for a second the players are tanking. I also believe what the owners and front office did at the deadline was a disgrace to the game. They traded their top 5 relievers, 4 position players among their top 8 in first half plate appearances and a starter with the second most innings pitched on the team. I get trading players on expiring contracts but they went way beyond that and it impacted their ability to compete this year and the next few. They should not be rewarded in the draft for their decision to trade off 40% of the roster. I also believe that the players on the current roster have fought their tails off. I believe the coaching staff is trying to win every game. Many of these players have worked for years in the minors to get this opportunity. It was awesome to see Fitzgerald’s first hit and home run. The Gasper game was special. Hatch may have jump started a career as a reliever. If my opening sentence implied that the performance of the players is a disgrace it is far from what I intended and I regret that it was taken that way. I would hope my focus in my comment on the blow up of the team trading 10 players would have made it clear that it is the decisions of the front office and owners that I can’t respect.

It is a difference to me. Today’s game is a perfect example. Really enjoying watching Ryan’s work through first five innings, I need a GM who is going to build and not subtract. Any GM can subtract. It is far easier to trade a Duran or Ryan that acquire one.

My mindset isn’t so fixed but following your premise I will take 72 wins over 58. Every game matters to me.

Starting pitchers are critical in the playoffs. There is no one in the organization on a path towards a game 1 playoff starter. Ryan and Lopez are that starter. Trading Ryan and Lopez will continue the cycle of mediocrity. In this trade environment teams are not giving up top prospects. Only one moved at the deadline in De Vries. As we get closer to the 27 labor negotiations I think teams will be even more conservative about giving up prospects. The return will be underwhelming and they already have enough prospects that are struggling to be an average major leaguer much less a top of the rotation pitcher.

Arraez has an OBP of .317 this year. That would be 11th on the Twins. All four position players traded are among the 10 above him so I guess you could say it is 7th.

Should we expect that Abel will follow Bradley in this start?

I hope they don’t sign anyone for first base or any other position that is the under 10 million dollar solution. It only guarantees that next year they will be doing the same. I am guessing that Solano, Santana and France were fine value and as a group outperformed their team friendly contracts. Overall in those 3 seasons the Twins are 17th in wRC+ from 1B or maybe 14th depending on which selections you make in Fangraphs. That isn’t going to get it done even if the analysis says it is a good value. They really need to pay up for a bat that is going to be in the top quartile at his position. They can pay up in the form of trading prospects and/or taking on salary to push them towards the median. If they aren’t willing to pay up then I would go young. Maybe Keaschall is 1B and Culpepper is starting in the infield. Put Jenkins and Rodriguez in the outfield. Play fast. Defend.

I really don’t know enough about the prognosis for the health of his arm and whether relief is the best role. The Twins didn’t give Duran that couple of months. Maybe they should have. I think the concern about the health of his arm was part of it.

Looking at Larnach’s profile it doesn’t appear he will have much excess value beyond his contract. They might be best non-tendering him rather than risk not finding a trade partner this winter.

The Twins should not be rewarded for this performance. It is a disgrace to the game. MLB should and could fix this mess and eliminate any thought of tanking. The first pick in the draft should go to the nonplayoff team with the best post deadline record. Second best? Second pick. Worst record? Last pick among non playoff teams. Want to blow up your team and trade off 10 players at the deadline? Do it. The MLB shouldn’t reward this behavior though. They need to create a system that makes winning matter and every game matter. It is a pretty easy fix.

The Twins have the prospect capital to win a trade for a bat. Some good bats are moved every winter. The Twins should in on those conversations. As for what the Twins think, I have no idea. There are plenty of threads for that conversation. My thoughts are that the Twins need a good bat, Rutschman would help and they should be willing to deal from their prospect pool to win a trade for bat.

The pick should not be a factor. By the time the draft gets into the 30s there is a pretty small chance of a significant major league career. Of the players drafted and signed at pick 31 you will find Greg Maddux and then Jarrod Washburn. No one else has surpassed 10 career WAR. I have no idea if Jenkins will give them the better chance of winning games next April. The Twins need him though. This organization needs hope. He ought to have a chance to win the job in spring training. I wouldn’t worry about the year of service time either though I think it has more potential value than a pick in the 30s. They shouldn’t make the decision based on a pick or service time. They need to get this man in a major league uniform when they determine he can help them win games. I hope it is opening day next year. They need to send a massage that winning is top priority from day one next year.

@DocBauer Really appreciate the thoughts. They failed to get something for Rosario and Farmer. They non-tendered Rosario and retained Farmer. I wonder which would be the best route for Larnach. If they can’t get a real return should they keep him? I am not certain the Twins are preparing Prielipp as a starter. Think they prefer all of their potential major league arms to have the regular routine of a starter and this year the added 4 day regular routine. It gives an opportunity to get in work between each outing. In Prielipp’s case, the priority of a healthy arm had him pitching every 7th and then moving to every 6th day midseason. That is the same routine was given to Ragans when he missed three seasons with two surgeries. Ragans did end up starting. I wonder about Duran. Was one his arm injury in 2021 one of the motivations to put Duran in the pen? He was 24 when they made the move though he had pitched the routine of a starter in the minors. I wonder if their mind is open to Jenkins winning a spot in the spring and starting the season in the majors. Mine would be.

Never give up. Mickey Gasper! Take a bat to the hand behind the plate early in the game, throw out a runner to end the Toronto 8th and come up big with the bat to tie the game leading off the 9th. A game to remember.

Wallner has not played first base in college, the cape cod league, the minor leagues or with the Twins. I would assume he was given a look there along the way and doesn’t have the necessary hands and feet to play at a passable level. His best defensive asset is his arm strength.

They aren’t going to know if he is ready. No team really knows. One thing in his favor is his glove. If he has struggles at the plate he still should have a plus glove on a corner while he grows with his bat. He needs a real shot to win the job in the spring.

Samples are so deceiving. What hope did people have in Stowers leading up to 2025? Entering his age 27 season he had a good 2022 AAA season with a wRC+ of 134 in AAA. Over three up and down seasons in Baltimore with an OPS+ of 83 and negative OOAs from corner OF. He used up his options. After the trade he had a 56 wRC+ in 172 PAs for the Marlins. Would the Twins have that kind of patience for a player whose value is the potential of his bat? That is the same wRC+ as Roden with the Twins. Outman is 75. Stowers turned it around and found that bat he showed in the minors. It took three years to find it. It takes so much patience with some players. Sometimes patience beyond their available options. How much patience should the Twins have with Roden or even Outman? There is no guarantee they will find the bat they had in the minors.

I appreciate the hope. A few thoughts. I think both Jenkins in the outfield and Prielipp in the pen can help from opening day. If they can’t get a player for Larnach it is OK to go the Rosario direction and let him go. Change in leadership brings new energy to any organization. They need that energy.

Teams have been holding on to their prospects. It is really hard to get a prospect with an FV over 50 and if you do they come with the risk of being a few years away. According to ESPN one prospect with an FV of 50 moved this year in DeVries. The Twins got two of the four 50s that moved in Tait and Abel. I wonder if the blow up path is available anymore if the top 20 or so of the top 100 are untouchable. It would have been great to find a Stowers but a year ago at this time he looked like the guys the Twins acquired this year. He had been up and down for three years with the Orioles with an OPS+ of 83 and a minus glove on the corner. He was awful for Miami in 172 PAs after the trade with an wRC+ of 56. That is Roden’s wRC+ as a Twin. Outman as a Twin is 75. Somehow he turned it around. I wouldn’t have traded Duran or Varland or Jax without getting back that elite prospect. As many told me I was asking too much and that wasn’t going to happen. It didn’t. I would have kept them and moved them next deadline if they were out of it. I think the return would have been close to the same.

Discouraging.

I don’t think the Twins should make trades where they give up quality for quantity. They don’t need more depth in their prospect pool. They need elite players and must get top pitching prospects back. Let’s not redo the Santana deal. They don’t need to trade Lopez or Ryan.