jorgenswest

I wonder if the Mariners would be looking to replace some power that they lost in free agency. How close would Wallner be to matching Harry Ford’s value?

I think an argument to be made that no catcher was run on more than Caratini. He is in a virtual tie with Augustin Ramirez in most stolen bases per 9. Ramirez was a rookie. He will probably get better. Caratini was in his 9th major league season. He probably won’t. In just 408 innings he allowed 57 stolen bases while throwing out only 7. The meager 408 innings should also stand out. That is only 28% of the Astros catcher load last year. The last and only time he was the primary catcher for a team was 2021. That wasn’t the catching plan for the Padres. Austin Nolan made three visits to the IL missing more than half the season. Even as a back up with the Twins he is bound to see over 700 innings at catcher as long as he stays healthy. No team in his 9 years has gone into the season with a plan to play him that much at catcher. Would it be wise to have that plan going into his age 32 season?

Miranda had one season as a prospect where his future value was above 40+. Even in his 2022 report he was an FV50 and came in at #91. He was also ranked 90th and 95th by MLB and Baseball America. He was not seen by those publications as a future star. A few players with that pedigree become stars but most bounce in and out of the majors. At his prospect peak Fangraphs wrote… There was hope that he could grow beyond that. He didn’t and his success often hinged on streaks of a high BABIP. Without a position where he helped defensively he really needed to be more selective at the plate. When he toned down his aggressive approach to be more selective he also took from away his one strength at the plate.

I think everyone on the 2026 roster needs to have some possibility of upside or be an established starter.

561 plate appearances or 58% more.

If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either? Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.

I watched Altuve play several games in the California League. He really stood out. We had no doubt that he would be a major leaguer. We had no idea he would be a Hall of Famer. I think it helped quite a bit that he played nearly every day instead of 2 of 3. He needed a lot of major league plate appearances to become an average major league hitter much less one with impact. If they gave that same time to JD Martinez I think they make a better decision about him as he enters his fourth year in the majors. That is where I think we disagree some on the use of the 13 position players on the roster. I would want to give near every day playing time to the players I think will make an impact. That will take some predetermination. I will make mistakes. If I am playing Martinez every day that is going to reduce the opportunity for Grossman or Hoes or Paredes or maybe all. These were all good prospects that were prizes in trades for Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Lance Berkman respectively. They had too many outfielders and nobody was playing every day. All, including Martinez, were released after three years in the majors. Teams need to know after three years. Beyond three years players run out of options and they get more expensive as they enter the arbitration years.

They have time with Ryan and Lopez. The return they will get will not be that much different if they wait. Ryan and Lopez will also help the other develop. Their innings will help the bullpen. I think their is wisdom in holding in to them to begin the season and reassess at the deadline or next winter. They don’t have the same time with Jeffers. They can wait until the deadline. He will be helpful to the young pitchers. I am not sure how much value he returns either. He may be more valuable helping this staff develop. All 162 matter to me.

I would think that choosing not to pick up Topa’s option is also an indicator that they don’t plan to take him to arbitration.

In the spring of 2023 the DFA’d or released Trevor Megill, Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe. Hoffman and Coulombe joined the Twins on minor league deals. Megill was claimed on waivers. There are relievers out there like them without success on their resumes yet. They probably wouldn’t make anyone’s list. They need to identify them and this time recognize their potential.

I agree. I was just really interested when you said “from what I am hearing”. Your math is good. I wonder about those other 28 spots. They are allowed to fill a some of those with players earning beyond the minimum either by trade or free agency. I am skeptical that they will. I haven’t heard anything sourced from them yet though. Going back to the beginning of our exchange it is that “hearing” phrase that caught my curiosity.

Those are payroll baselines based on today. They are not sourced information about their future plans for this off season. I personally think they will be at or under 100 million. That is my speculation and not based on any sourced information about the Twins plans for the future.

What is your source?

The Red Sox had a pretty good roster and the payroll flexibility to give him a chance. I am not sure anyone can be successful in the Twins circumstance.

I think the best staffs are very good at predetermination. Playing time at the majors is limited. I don’t think any organization can afford to give all of their players that reach the 40 the necessary playing sample to determine. Successful small and mid market teams will be good at determining the likelihood of success prior to arrival at the majors We need the Twins to be very good at projecting as players arrive at the majors. Play Brooks Lee nearly every day. Bet on him and approach 1500 PAs. Maybe then you need to move on. Let them struggle and keep playing them. Everyday day. Have your answer prior to arbitration. Don’t waste too many days on the bench or you still want know when you get to arbitration. Look at the Astros after they tore it down. After trades and drafts they had a lot of good prospects in the system. They played Altuve virtually every day for 2+ seasons. After 1536 plate appearances he was still a below average hitter (93 OPS+) but they won that bet. He really payed off as he it his arbitration years. They were also probably lucky he arrived a year or so below the prospect bubble. Gonzalez and Villar didn’t arrive until later and Altuve was established playing everyday before their arrival. Once the prospect bubble hit they missed on a few trying to give playing time to too many. They had a glut of outfielders. All young. All good prospects with success in the minors. Some were prized prospects acquired in trade, They should have bet on JD Martinez. He had just 975 PAs after three years with the Astros and they didn’t tender him as he entered his arb years. With the glut of young outfield prospects they were splitting playing time among Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Chris Johnson, Brian Bogusevic, Fernando Martinez, LJ Hoes, Brandon Barnes and Robbie Grossman. All struggled as prearb players. None were taken to arbitration. They would have better betting on a few. They should have determined that Martinez was the guy. It wasn’t just outfielders. They missed on Jonathan Villar who was splitting time in the infield until he made it to arbitration. The DFA’d him and moved him in a minor trade to Milwaukee after three years. His first year in Milwaukee he stole 62 bases with an OPS+ of 117 playing shortstop everyday for them. Of course they were so bad they could afford to miss. Springer, Correa and Bregman were in the way. No splitting time for them. No team has more FV45 and better prospects than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates that aren’t at arbitration yet including Wallner, Keaschall, Lee, Martin, Julien, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa and Bradley. They need to bet on the right guys and they need to be good at it. Bet of Roden or not. Let’s not end the year with plate appearances in the 300s. They can’t waste too many of their prearb days on the bench or they will still be wondering as they hit arbitration.

Francona had Schilling, Rolen for all 4 years and Abreu for 3 in Philadelphia. The Phillies payroll was not near the bottom of baseball in that time. Bill Simmons wrote early in his Red Sox career Clearly learning happened for Francona and he grew into a very good manager when he wasn’t one in Philadelphia. We can only hope that Shelton has learned and grown from his failures in Pittsburgh. It is possible. Francona is an example.

What is the confusion? This happens every offseason. They needed to open some spots on the 40. Others will be moved when more open spots are needed. No need to remove them now. It is also not time to fret about the 40 man. There will be plenty of movement before opening day, That they are aiming higher than Laweryson, Misiewicz, Hatch, Tonkin and Cabrera for the bullpen was good news to me.

The Twins shouldn’t go free agency unless they can get someone Naylor or better. Anyone below at best delays the problem a year and at worst are given many at bats while performing at a mediocre level. They should consider a trade of prospects for someone that is above average for a 1B. The Cardinals are looking to deal Contreras but there will be the no trade clause hurdle there. Some good bats will be moved this winter and the Twins have the prospect capital to win those deals. Failing a significant investment in dollars for a free agent or prospects for an established veteran they should go with Roden and if he fails slide Keaschall over or go back to Clemens.

If I am going to look at one batting measure from last season to help project next season I would look at xwOBA. xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and depending on the type of contact sprint speed. All elements the batter controls. AL Central xwOBA .346 Torkelson .345 Pasquantino .331 Manzardo .327 Vargas The three above .337 France .307 Andujar .311 Lowe I guess France would fit if he doesn’t decline in his 30s. The other two are in the bottom tier of first basemen. The Twins traded for Roden. He has crushed AAA. He has experience at first base. I would give him a shot and maybe there is no need to write this article next year. Maybe it wasn’t needed this year anyway. Clemens had an xwOBA of .341 which fits the AL Central competition pretty well.

I think they need to put the best 12 arms on the major league roster with Adams/Ohl/Laweryson in the 13th spot. I hope they will not be fixed in a role. In a different thread I looked at the starters chosen for the last two All Star games and several had spent time as relievers. Some shifted from reliever to starter midseason. I see 9 arms that were starters in 2025 that are in the majors or reasonably ready for the majors. I would put four in the bullpen. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Abel and Prielipp all need a spot if they are the top 12 arms. Roster them. Give Raya a shot to win a spot.

My point is that they can wait and still get the 50s for Ryan and should wait. This is also a Twins surplus. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. That doesn’t include guys that were FV50 or better in Roden, Festa, Matthews or Bradley. At some point they are going to need to invest major league time into the guys they have and no team has more. Roden has played 1B. He crushed the ball in the minors. Let’s start with him. They need to develop what they have and Ryan and Lopez are going to helpful to the development of the pitchers this year. Trade them next offseason or even at the deadline of their last year of control.

@Riverbrian 1) I don’t think they can get that elite prospect and I don’t think they got enough for Duran or Varland. If they can get that elite prospect I am in. Those players are moved much less frequently in the last 10 years. I don’t want them to settle for the FV50 group. The Fangraphs curve of future value shapes like this. FV65: 2 FV60: 5 FV55: 16 FV50: 72 FV45: 184 (49 have 45+) I think they can get the next tier in a year or at least at the deadline this year if they are not competing. For Duran they received a 45+ and a 45. I really think they could have received something similar at this deadline. 2) Ryan’s peak is also valuable to them and I believe it is these first two years of arbitration while his salary is very manageable. I really respect the Guardians and Brewers. They keep their players at that peak. Burnes was traded with one year left. Williams was traded with one year left. Hader was 1+ but they traded him in a season they didn’t make the playoffs and Williams was ready for the closer job. The Guardians traded Lindor in his final year of arbitration. They aren’t trading players at their peak. Why should the Twins? Factoring in surplus value Ryan has more than twice as much now as a year from now. They need to retain players at their peak value as the Brewers and Guardians do. In 2023 Ryan wasn’t ready to be that impact playoff pitcher yet. He was last year and is now. They shouldn’t trade that away unless they are blown away with an offer. Let’s not trade it away for some FV50s. The odds are a player at that future value will not be impactful. Even FV55s are questionable. Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis are recent Twins FV55s on the major league roster. Counting playoff impact Duran probably had at least three times as much excess value when he was traded as opposed to being traded after the 2026. Did they get that value? Note: I use Fangraphs for the ease of their data. I also appreciate that they are conservative in their player valuations. It should look like a curve. The number 100 player in the MLB pipeline is an overall 55. I don’t know how deep their FV55s go but it is past 100. That is a future of an above average regular. Those players are in the league and regulars well into their 30s. It isn’t possible we have over 100 of those above average regulars in the pipeline right now. I think MLB has motivation to overhype the prospects. Teams like the Twins need to sell that overhyped prospect to their fan base when they trade away their few valuable assets.

I suggest everyone simply go listen to the press conference and decide for themselves what is most telling.

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies. I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

Is anyone aware of data that shows the success for minor league catchers on their challenge calls? I can find aggregate AAA numbers from 2024. The overall success rate was 49.5%. Hitters were successful 45% of the time. Catchers and pitchers were successful 53.5%. I don’t have the split for that year but my guess it is something around 56% catchers to 41% pitchers which were the spring numbers. It would be really interesting to see individual catcher success rate over their years in the minors. Just the challenge numbers isn’t enough. We also need the on the pitches that were not challenges. How many opportunities will be missed? It is really four buckets challenge/success, challenge/fail, no challenge/missed strike and no challenge/called correctly. Digging deeper in those buckets it would be good to know how many were really close close calls. New catching skills to be measured for 2026. the ability to successfully challenge called balls the ability to make a strike look like a ball trying to get the batter to call for an unsuccessful challenge. the ability to receive a ball well so the umpire calls it a strike and the batter does not challenge. Some catchers are going to be much better at this than others. The range of skill will likely be greater than the framing numbers. I hope the Twins have enough of their analytics staff left to the identify the catchers with challenging skills that are elite.