jorgenswest

Does anyone wonder why Caissie isn’t playing over Ian Happ for the Cubs right now? This is his second year at AAA so he has had plenty of AAA plate appearances to be ready. It has to be that the Cubs don’t see him as an upgrade to Happ. Perhaps they don’t want to expose his weaknesses to major league pitchers and drive down his trade value. Has Matt Bush dropped in value after outperforming Caissie in AAA but the struggling in the majors? Does anyone wonder why his strikeout rate increased in his second year at the level? It seems like it should drop with more experience. Caissie has a wRC+ of 142 this year. That is encouraging. It is on par with Gasper and Martin who have a 144 wRC+ for St. Paul. He is a right fielder that looks pretty similar to Matt Wallner to me. At this point his age is in his favor but there needs to be growth and the strikeout rate hasn’t improved. It is really hard to fix strikeouts and major league pitchers are going to take advantage of that swing and miss. I am listening on Jax but the Cubs need a better headliner for Ryan or Duran.

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective? At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax? I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here.

Putting this in before Jax pitches the 9th. I don’t want to be reactive but I think it might be the time to deal him. His age is a factor that might negate the two additional years.

We don’t know anything. I accept that. I think then FV value is more meaningful than a number. Would you accept a deal where the best player acquired has an FV of 50 in the various sources available. Maybe they get two of those guys. In your opinion would that be enough for Ryan? Duran? Jax? For me I think it would be for Jax. I need more for Duran. I need someone seen among the best for Ryan.

They haven’t done it. All they are doing is resetting the clock. Joe Ryan is finally to the point where he is a game 1 worthy playoff starter and they might trade him they fully realize his talents. In Duran’s case we needed to wait four years before he was on the roster. He wasn’t around to help the playoff teams in 2019 and 2020. Ryan wasn’t ready in 2023 to make an impact as a playoff starter. He has pitched two playoff innings. That isn’t doing it. Why are some so hopeful they are traded now instead of next year? Hardly any impactful player is traded with this much service time. Rightfully so teams ask for a king’s ransom to let them go. So far we have come up with Juan Soto.

Do you trust this owner and this front office to hold out to make sure they get this kind of talent? I am asking that they set the bar very high and be blown away by an offer. I don’t want them to take an offer that BTV would rate as equal. They have the leverage. Don’t settle for a two top 100 prospects.

Soto did have those three seasons playoff control. His haul was amazing. The return the Twins get for giving up three years playoff control better be a lot closer to the Soto haul as opposed to the Berrios haul. Otherwise wait a year It is far easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it to acquire one and if we have new owners and possibly leadership by next deadline they can set the direction. As for comps I wonder if the Rays or Guardians have moved a pitcher with three years of playoff control at the deadline. They seem to be models of teams that keep turning over talent.

I am looking for comps of all star level pitchers that have been traded at the deadline with 3 seasons of playoff control left. There was one player last year traded with that control. For the previous season and a half he had been a league average player. Chisholm is not a comp. In all these discussions I haven’t seen anyone bring one forward but I haven’t read through every discussion.

It isn’t my board I am worried about. I don’t know anything and can only go by MLB or Fangraphs. It is the Twins board I am worried about. Did you hear Levine talk about how they use these boards to sell deals to the owner or the Twins base? They are already trying to sell us that they are insisting on multiple top 100 prospects. That is meaningless. Most of the top 100 are not going to be impactful major leaguers. I don’t know who is in the top 10 or so of their top 100 but that has to be the bar they set. They have to se it there and be right or wait until next year. If I trusted them more to be right I might be more willing. I don’t want to end up with a #4 or #5 starter and a bench player for any of these three. The return of two top 100s that they received for Berrios is not enough with this much control left.

That was the Berrios deal. Two FV 50 or 55 prospects in Woods Richardson and Martin. In Fangraphs updated report Martin was #48 and Woods Richardson was #85. In reality they were both closer in future value to the #250 than those in the top 10. The majority of the top 100 hasve a future value of 50 which extends towards 200. If the Twins are going to give up 3 years of playoff control they need to get more than multiple top 100s. They need to get more than they received for Berrios.

It doesn’t take many. There are a few. Otherwise I will wait until next year and take the multiple 100s if they are sellers.

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100. Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough.

I don’t think Bader is enough to get the catcher so wondering if adding Gonzalez to Bader would be enough. This kind of deal is not unusual. It might be uncommon at the deadline but there likely is a deal like this every year. Last year the Dodgers got a prospect added with Edman. Two years ago the Rays got a prospect with Sampson. The Padres got the Marlins #21 prospect with Garrett Cooper in that deal. Sometimes a team is insisting on a prospect in return and the other team relents by taking back a lesser prospect in the deal.

Do you think they would prefer Bader over Larnach? In that case it would have to be Bader plus something. I am wondering if Gonzalez would pry away that catcher prospect.

Is he a sell high opportunity? Pair him with Coulombe or Bader or Castro and try to get a legit catching prospect. One of them and Gonzalez to the Phillies for Tait?

Concur. Either way pick a lane. I am picking the other lane. In that other lane I think we need both and more next year. I don’t see a surplus in the bullpen. They need Coulombe back after trading him. They need two more arms after that.

Fair enough on Funderburk. The 59.2 innings with a 4.29 isn’t suggestive of future failure or success but he is 28. He will have an option remaining next year so an additional two month look might be helpful in whether to roster him next year. If they are sellers they will have more roster spots to fill than proven relievers for the bullpen. Do you prefer looking longer at the lefty Misiewizc over him?

They need to take the best offer on Bader. Maybe it will be Kemp. He is doing well enough with the Phillies right now and his expected stats are better than his actuals. I think they would likely offer someone that isn’t going to help the 2025 team. I don’t think they will be getting a significant near major league ready prospect. They will likely need to buy upside or get a player at a lower level. I would be looking for a buy low minor league starting pitcher that they might try to turn into a bullpen arm or catcher depth. In the Phillies system Eduardo Tait would be a dream. He is 18 and a 45 FV high risk prospect but the Twins didn’t add a catcher in the draft. They need a catcher next year but they also need another in the lower end of the system. I would try to get him and be willing to add to the deal to make it work.

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up. Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control? I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value. There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.

Sometimes the stuff is so good that it is really hard to put the ball in play. That results in longer counts with more strikeouts and walks. As he sees more advanced hitters the increase in balls in play will bring both rates down and the walk rate may be acceptable.

The premise of the article is “If…” There must be another place for the discussion about “Should…” If the Twins are buyers I think they need pitching help. The bullpen is healthy and has holes. They need another good bullpen arm minimally unless we think Paddack can take that spot when Ober returns. I would look for two bullpen arms to replace Topa and Misiewicz. I would not look for a bat unless that bat is a top third of the order bat. It is really the upside of Lewis, Correa and Wallner that they need to show up. They need Keaschall to pick up where he left off. They have some depth in the minors that they can call on. The likelihood that they will get offensive help internally is probably similar to the likelihood that they would get help from the players listed above.

Kemp seems a reasonable shot. I don’t see super utility though. Castro has a lot of innings at each of 6 positions in his career and plays more than passable defense at each. That isn’t Kemp. Kemp seems more like a right handed Clemens in his defensive flexibility.

For Duran I would want Rushing or Sasaki. They would need to add Edgardo Rodriguez or River Ryan to the Rushing deal. They need a pretty sure thing for Duran and those are the only two pretty sure solid major leaguers. For Jax they can start with Ferris. He will probably be a reliever. They would need to add Ryan or Rodriguez to that deal also. If they aren’t interested I would wait a year and trade them the next deadline.

Our bar for juicy is likely different. I would take a medium/low risk FV 55 paired with a medium/low FV50. Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries might be on the high risk side but they are a 55 and 50 and catchers are in short supply.

Agree on Rushing but it is really hard to find a catcher. The downside of a major leaguer is you don’t get the 6 years of service time.