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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Whatever it takes. The Twins have the prospect capital to make it work. They aren’t out of reach. It will take more to get the younger Contreras. Someone with BTV might offer a starting point.
  2. jorgenswest
    You would want me running the team because I would be very willing to trade prospects. Two examples without looking at the rosters if every team. Contreras from Milwaukee is a possibility as the Brewers have a catcher coming and they are willing to deal players as they get expensive in arbitration. Contreras from St. Louis is playing 1B and St. Louis might want out of the contract. Those are two roads the Twins can look either getting an arb2 or arb3 or someone who has a year or two left on the free agent deal. Both players have two years left with the elder Contreras having a club option for 2028.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t think a free agent is the best route because the long term commitment doesn’t always work well for mid market teams. They could compete for Alonso or Bellinger who have player options and would be wise to get into the market at a high point. They would fit at 1B but it wouldn’t be worth it. At catcher they could fill some of that salary space to extend Jeffers. In any case they should play him 2/3 of the time next year and his wRC+ of 113 will fit pretty well there. I would rather they give up prospect capital for a top of the line up bat. That might be a bat that has a year or two left in arbitration before they become a free agent. Those kinds of deals happen every winter. The Twins don’t need long term control here. They have been pretty successful at building a prospect pool and not so successful at reaping the fruits of that pool. They can afford to trade from their prospects. A reasonable response would be that the Twins wouldn’t do either. Probably true. I am not here to guess what the Twins will do. I am just offering my thoughts on what they should do. Responding to the OP I think there is a road to a competitive team in 2026.
  4. jorgenswest
    They need to get back to 2023 where they had the median payroll. They can contend in 2026 with that commitment from the Pohlad’s. They say they are committed. We need to see it with there pocketbook. Tearing it down will lead to an endless cycle of mediocrity or worse. They have a two year window with Lopez and Ryan. Maximize that window.
  5. jorgenswest
    I agree. One of my frustrations with the Twins of the 2000s was that they would not ever go big at the deadline to get add to the top of the line up or playoff caliber starter. They would make a bench move or add to the bullpen. Would I have that same frustration with the Brewers of the last 7 years? They are in great position this year. They added a second catcher and some injured arms. To @Mike Sixel’s point they are relying on their system instead of adding bench or bullpen pieces with the exception of getting that catcher. I hope this is their year.
  6. jorgenswest
    How have the Brewers done in the playoffs? Did trading off elite pieces prevent them from winning playoff series? Should they have made bigger moves at the deadline? Since they last won a playoff series in 2018 I think they have gone 2-10 in their last 5 seasons in the playoffs. This year looks different but they look pretty similar to the Twins of the 2000s.
  7. jorgenswest
    The floor for their commitment to building a winning team and culture is funding a payroll that is at the league median. By sportrac that would be around 159 million this year. I assume that moves up but 160 million next year would be a good entry point for commitment.
  8. jorgenswest
    Any reason for hope in the Twins? I don’t see it.
  9. jorgenswest
    @Chembry Thanks for the work finding the hypothetical. Our conversation reminded me of something I started putting together connected to the Mariners and our own blow up of the bullpen. I need to get back to that. Since DiPoto has taken over in 2015 he has consistently traded from his bullpen both at the deadline and the off season. It would be extremely out of character for them to give up significant prospect capital to acquire bullpen arms.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Mariners have been the team building the bullpen from trades for minor leaguers and failed starters. They even traded away their closer to Arizona when in a pennant race. Sign Sewald to the minimum off of waivers. Develop him as a closer. Trade him while in a pennant race for prospects. It would be an abrupt turnabout in process to be on the other end of that deal.
  11. jorgenswest
    Did TD give their source for the offer? There was a lot of speculation about the Mariners and Dodgers but I haven’t seen anything sourced back to a quote from the Mariners or Twins.
  12. jorgenswest
    Ford wasn’t mentioned in the article and probably why the Twins had to turn to Philadelphia. Seattle is wise to keep Ford. They will need him to catch because Raleigh’s bat is too valuable and he is getting close to 30. I think we will see Raleigh as the secondary catcher with his bat in the line up every day when Ford is ready.
  13. jorgenswest
    That 13-1 loss in Boston is still on the top of my unwatchable list. Yesterday was close. Neither offered any hope that this team will be competitive next year. I need that hope. I can’t wait three to five years.
  14. jorgenswest
    This is my recall of the Sunday morning radio show with Jeremy Zoll. I don’t think the purpose was to develop a pitcher for that role in the majors. I think the purpose is to have a role in the minors structured to get more innings as well as having routine time in between outings to work. The routine of a reliever does not allow that routine. My takeaway… I don’t think they have developed anyone who was strictly a reliever in the minors to a successful major league reliever. Jovani Moran is the closest but he was signed in the prior administration. Maybe they think giving 10 or so more pitchers in the organization a regular routine that allows work in between adds to the chances someone will make it through. This administration is going to develop pitchers for the bullpen from a starter’s role in the minors. I might argue with that but I don’t think they are preparing pitchers for a new role in the majors. I do see Adams and Ohl in that bullpen day role now so I could be wrong. I am hoping it is a function of three starters on IL and one starter traded.
  15. jorgenswest
    Aren’t you the same guy who has wisely preached patience on Wallner who is 27. Outman’s career wRC+ doesn’t match Wallner’s but Outman needs to be compared to center fielders. Outman has over 1500 career major league innings in CF with an OOA of 11. That is 2023 Michael Taylor level. Since 2023 they have used Margot, Martin and Keirsey as the back up center fielder. Outman has a career wRC+ of 103. I am going to at least have enough patience with him until the roster decision next spring. Are there clearly better and reliable solutions for Buxton’s back up on the roster? Can they acquire a good back up option that meets their budget? I also assume that Out,an is in AAA because the Twins are trying to change something about his swing or approach to try to get him to closer to where was in 2023. I think the decision to put Abel, Bradley and Outman is about them working on their craft before joining the major league club.
  16. jorgenswest
    I am certain the major league slash stats for Outman the last two years as well as those for Gasper and Roden are small samples and are not useful for projecting forward. If they matched those sample with mediocre play in AAA the last few years that would be telling. I think the major league samples are further weakened by the sporadic play they have received while on the major league roster. I don’t know if any can follow through on the promise they have shown in AAA but none have been given any kind of real chance this year if you are basing an assessment by looking at a stat line. Outman has a high strikeout rate that is real. He showed it in the minors. He showed it in his rookie season where he finished third in ROY. It is hard to be successful in the majors with a high K rate in the minors. That K rate can lead to prolonged slumps. Wallner faces a similar challenge. Had he been on the Dodgers he probably wouldn’t have made it through his month of June. The Dodgers can afford to be less patient. In spite of awful stat lines the last two years Outman still has a career OPS+ of 100. He is a good outfielder at all three positions. I wouldn’t let him go before they need to cut the roster to 26 next spring. I don’t think it is wise to make a definitive statement about any of the three based on their major league time the last two seasons.
  17. jorgenswest
    There are a lot of talented arms. I don’t think I would hold back one of the starters in AAA for depth. Take the best 13 arms. If a pitcher gets injured build up an arm through a few bullpen games. I do think Prielipp has a chance to win a spot. More likely give him the routine of a starter in AAA to begin next year. That is what the Rangers did with Ragans following his second TJ and very few innings in his previous four. He built up a year and a half before they brought him to the majors. It may be in the bullpen when Prielipp gets to the majors. The routine of a starter role in the minors is so much more conducive to development. Larnach is going to have to put up an OPS over 800 these last two months in order to be tendered. That might make it his best two month stretch of his career. Even if he is tendered the Twins may trade him for a return similar to what they received for Urshela. The Twins tendered Farmer after 2023 and weren’t able to move him. Tendering Larnach may be more risk than they are willing to take given the minimal return. Outman has crushed the ball in AAA for three years. Roden has a good track record in the minors Gasper does too. Outman’s last two poor seasons as well as the poor seasons of Gasper and Roden thus far this year are very small samples. I don’t think you can look at their 44, 61 or 31 PAs this year and be definitive that they will not hit in the future. I would bring all three to spring training. If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm rather than spread it over several team friendly one year deals. Get the best player or two they can afford and then look for minor league free agents like Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Maybe someone like Luis Campusano. What will it take to buy low on Campusano from the Padres? Has he fallen out of favor there? He will be out of options.
  18. jorgenswest
    The best route to a major league pitcher whether starter or reliever is the structured routine of a starter in the minors. The Twins have added the structured routine of a 3-4 inning/3 days rest pitcher this year in the minors. Pitchers don’t need the routine of a reliever to pitch in relief in the majors. In the case of Prielipp the priority has always been a healthy year. He has progressed from 6 days rest between outings to 5 days rest. It closely follows the Cole Ragans model. I believe Prielipp innings total have matched or surpassed his previous 5 seasons combined. Ragans made his major league debut middle of the next season. I expect we will see Prielipp by the second half next year if he can manage to stay healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised that it will be as a reliever though I think he will have the routine of a starter as he begins 2026 in AAA. In the case of Bradley and Abel, on Sunday Jeremy Zoll talked about the work they are doing with them in AAA. Bradley already had started that work with the Rays. Abel has yet to make the most of his arm talent in the minors. The minor league schedule with less travel and the routine of a starter makes it much easier to do that work between starts. I do trust the their process of developing pitchers.
  19. jorgenswest
    Depending on the arb progression for his salary Larnach may not be tendered. He may not have excess value beyond his arb2 salary. It would be in his best interest to put up an OPS north of 800 these last two months. The Twins have several pre-arb options for the outfield.
  20. jorgenswest
    He was throwing from flat ground on July 25 which is just short of 8 weeks from June 3. I think that is pretty close to typical for the injury.
  21. jorgenswest
    I appreciate all of these players. They have battled in every game since the deadline. I appreciate the fight from the players like Fitzgerald, Gasper, McCusker, Clemens, Kriske and Hatch as they battled through years of the minor leagues or independent leagues for this opportunity. I appreciate Keaschall and Martin’s all out style of play. I appreciate the pitchers that stepped to fill a decimated bullpen. I appreciate the leadership I see from the core that remained after seeing 40% of the roster moved at the deadline. I appreciate Baldelli’s fight also. I don’t need to see wins. I need to see players and managers compete for every game.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hated the Stewart trade but I have to weigh in on Outman here. Outman has crushed AAA pitching over the large sample of the last three years with an OPS of .952. He is a far more accomplished hitter at this point in his career than Gonzalez. He is also 28 and hasn’t had major league success since 2023. Gonzalez has all the upside but it is within reason that pitching to him last night gave them a better chance of winning.
  23. jorgenswest
    These players are fighting and this game was a pleasure to watch. Wallner and Clemens crushing the ball was a highlight. Clemens has a 117 wRC+ as a Twin. That is going to work with his positional flexibility. Wallner is hitting like the player we expected. Those home runs were nice but the play of the day for me was Keaschall’s busting it to second base on the ball hit to Witt. If the plan was to tank no one told the players.
  24. jorgenswest
    Let’s fill as many spots with pitchers that might be helpful next year. That is more important than how they are used. Let’s make sure they are seeing major league batters. If the best way to do that is one of these plans then I am in. If it is a traditional model I am in. It isn’t going to keep Taj Bradley from starting next year if he is coming out of the pen the remainder of this year. It might even be nice to see how he throws when he knows he won’t see the line up more than once. Let’s prioritize arms in the minors that they know will be on the 40 next year over pitchers currently in the pen over the age of 30.
  25. jorgenswest
    Still would prefer him to Outman.
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