jorgenswest

Yes. You can add Anthony and Sasaki to the list.

Fair enough. I am not arguing that teams are never happy. I think it is hard. I think it is better to look at a group of those considered to be the top and then see how many are helping. It gives a better idea of the likelihood of success. Here are MLB’s top 10 traded prospects from 2023. Luisangel Acuna Drew Gilbert Kyle Manzardo Edgar Quero Jake Eder Ryan Clifford Nick Nastrini Marco Vargas Hao-Yu Lee Tekoah Roby This group is two years out so it matches the control of Ryan or Duran. Look at the 10 or go look at the entire list of 40 in the link. How many of these players have positively impacted their new team’s fortunes two years out? I want the new team owners to decide if they will rebuild. Wait a year before trading Ryan or Duran. I think the likelihood that the 2026 or 2027 team is better as a result of the trade is pretty small.

They are all the real Clemens. Slash stats need more than a full season of playoff control to stabilize so they can really vary by month. It is often meaningless and usually track BABIP. In June his BABIP was .100. His strikeout rate was lower and his walk rate was higher in June. That’s a good thing. Unfortunately the increase in balls in play did not lead to hits. His average exit velocity of 94.5 leads the Twins and matches Juan Soto who is 13th overall. Buxton is next at 92. Hard hit balls are the real Clemens.

Agree completely. Elite relievers are so valuable in the playoffs though. With the more frequent off days they can impact nearly every close game. The Twins need to be blown away to give away three years of playoff control. They have a completely healthy bullpen and still have holes this year. Chop off the top of the bullpen and those holes will be gaping for 2026. You only need to look at the 5 players in ESPN’s top tier of traded prospects for 2024 to know that getting a prospect not near the top 10 overall has a strong chance of failure. Players in the top 10 are rarely traded. All Star caliber starters or closers with that 3 years of playoff control are rarely traded. I am not sure if anyone has put up one comp to a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran that was traded at the deadline with their years of control. Do the Dodgers want to improve their chances to win this year? Ryan or Duran are going to help them repeat more than the injured Sasaki or Rushing. The same is probably true for 2026. Make them pay or hang up the phone. The Twins have the leverage. They are under their control until 2028.

Going by prospect numbers there are going to be about 10 players that have an FV of 60 or better. The next about 20 players will have an FV of 55. There will around 100 players after that with an FV of 50. A 60 FV has a future value as a #3 starter or plus position player. A 50 FV player has a future value of number 4 starter or average regular. If you are going to trade Ryan or Duran and all of their remaining control I sure hope they should a lot higher than the number 50 prospect. I need a top 10 overall prospect overall before I start listening. If the Red Sox want to start with Roman Anthony or the Dodgers want to start with Dalton Rushing I am listening but I need more. Otherwise I am waiting a year and giving myself a better chance to compete in 2026.

Does trading for prospects pay off? I looked back at last year’s deadline and checked on ESPN’s top tier of 5 prospects traded at the 2024 deadline. I think the progress of those five should be a cautionary tale for the Twins considering trading players beyond those with expiring contracts.

ESPN listed the top prospects moved at last year’s deadline. Let’s look at how they progressed with their new teams. Aiden Smith OF: Acquired by the Rays in the Randy Arozarena deal. At the time he had an FV of 50 while playing A Ball in Modesto. The most recent update has him with a FV of 40+ as he has advanced to high A. He has an uninspiring OPS of .716 and hasn’t made it to AA yet. Jake Bloss SP: Acquired by Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal. He had a good first half in AA with a 1.61 ERA over 8 starts in 2024. The Jays moved him to AAA where he posted a 6.91 ERA in 8 starts following the deadline. After 23 innings in 2025 and a 6.46 ERA this year he is headed towards Tommy John surgery. By 2027 when he is fully ready to return he will be out of options. George Klassen SP: Acquired by the Angels for closer Carlos Estevez. The former Gopher was lights out in A Ball at the time of the trade. He has moved to AA this year and has a 5.86 ERA with a lot of strikeouts and far too many walks. He did get invited to the futures game. Augustin Ramirez C/DH: Acquired by the Marlins for Jazz Chisholm who had an 2+ years of control remaining. Ramirez is in the majors. He has started 32 games at catcher and has allowed 88% stolen base rate. He also leads the league in passed balls with 8 though he has only started 32 of 97 games. Fourteen wild pitches have also been thrown while he was catcher. He has DH’d more than he has caught this year and has a 103 wRC+. He will likely improve the bat and will need to in order to stick at DH. It doesn’t look like he will be anything beyond an emergency catcher. Dylan Lesko SP: Acquired by the Rays in the Jason Adam deal. he has a great arm but has not pitched well in the minors yet following a 2022 Tommy John surgery. He pitched 14.1 innings after the deal last year with a 9.42 ERA and this year was shut down after 5 innings in which he gave up 10 runs. I am not sure of the status of his shut down. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is one prospect traded that is flourishing. Kyle Stowers was acquired for Kevin Rogers. He was in ESPNs third tier of prospects. The corner outfielder appeared in the All Star game and looks to be a fixture. A high strike out rate might catch up with him as pitchers see him a second a third time but he looks to be the real deal. Prospects always seem so promising. The reality is that success in the major leagues is really hard. Trading proven major leaguers for prospects is a risk. Teams acquiring the top tier of prospects were given good grades last year. In hindsight it sure looks like they didn’t get nearly enough. Maybe the Twins front office is much smarter than the front offices that acquired these players and there will be less risk.

What are the comps for an all star level pitcher or closer are trading at the deadline with 2 additional years of service time? I did find one player last year that was traded with an additional two years of service time. Jazz Chisholm for the previous was an average hitter last year and the previous year. He did get a fair return but not one that would change a franchise. They received a catcher who they are finding out really can’t play catcher. Though he has started only 32 games he leads the league in passed balls. Runners steal bases nearly 90% of the time. He starts more at DH. They would be better off with Chisholm this year and probably could have traded him for near the same return. Perhaps they would have found someone that can play defense at the major league level. That is the risk with prospects. The reports look good as the play in the minors but the speed of the game in the majors is several levels up. I really think it is foolish to trade Ryan or Duran now. How much more should they expect to get in trade now as opposed to next year? The sweet spot for the trade is with one additional year of service time. It is much easier to trade an all star starter or closer than it is to acquire one. Let the new owners make that decision. Maybe they will put more money into the payroll and a trade won’t be necessary. If not they can trade them next summer.

I would shoot for Blade Tidwell. The shine on his prospect status may be lessening. He is 24 and using an option this year. Might be a candidate to see how he does in a relief role the last few months. In general adding to the catcher pool or looking for a buy low pitcher that has arm talent would be good targets.

I have thought about the Guardians and Rays. I think the 2024 Tigers had a better plan.

I would sell off the expiring contracts this July but it isn’t a rebuild. I am going the 2024 Tigers route. They traded off four expiring contracts and let the players in their system have a chance to play. All four played significantly in their first half in #2 starter Jack Flaherty, lefty reliever Andrew Chafin, catcher Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. They replaced Flaherty with an opener and Tyler Hilton and Beau Brieske emerged. Brant Hurter was the lefty reliever. Spencer Torkelson returned from his exile to the minors and had a .945 OPS in August. Dillon Dingler got his feet wet at catcher. I am guessing the plan was to see what they needed for 2025 but it resulted in a couple rounds of playoff baseball. That means we trade Willi Castro. That will hurt. Not Jack Flaherty hurt but it will hurt. Keaschall will be returning and let’s look at Austin Martin. We trade lefty specialist Danny Coulombe. That will hurt. The bullpen is very thin. Everyone is healthy and two on the current roster don’t look to be major league ready. Is it time to see Connor Prielipp in a relief role? Maybe not. The plan for a full healthy season is a priority. If not then Funderburk gets off the shuttle and gets a two month consistent shot. Can they get anything for Paddack? Take what they can get and make sure Festa, Matthews and Woods Richardson have a spot in the rotation the rest of the year. Can they get anything for France? The return for Canha was little but the open spot gave a chance for Torkelson to earn back some trust. Maybe Clemens gets a good share of 1B. Maybe Julien returns here. What does Keaschall look like at 1B? Miranda’s last stand? It might mean paying some of the contract for Vazquez but let’s do it. Let’s see Mickey Gasper at catcher for two months. Teams will run against him. In AAA he gives up a stolen base every 6.5 innings while Camargo is one of the best and gives up a stolen base every 9 innings. It amounts to an extra stolen base every three games. Can his bat make up the difference even if it a stolen base per game at this level? Let’s see about the rest of his game at catcher. Marco Raya had some very positive things to say about Gasper behind the plate. Bader will hurt too. Will Rodriguez be healthy? Probably not. That leaves an opening for Carson McCusker or Walker Jenkins. They might also send out Keirsey now and bring up Martin. Get Keirsey some at bats for a few weeks and maybe he gets a real shot with the bat when he returns. Anyone else? Justin Topa is not matching his 2023 season. I would trade him. The bullpen already has holes to fill today. Maybe the return for some of the other players is a failed starter or a blocked minor league reliever they give a chance in the pen for the final two months. Why not rebuild? There are a few reasons. The largest is I want the new owners to be able to shape this club. If they want to go for it in the next few years they need Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and to a lesser extent Griffin Jax. Selling this players is easy. New owners wanting to replace them will be hard. The new owners need to be able to set the direction. The sweet spot for selling is the deadline with 1 season remaining. They have two. The return for them will not be that much less next summer and it gives the Twins a better chance to compete next year. I suppose someone could argue that they may get injured. It is also true that the key prospect we get in return for them this year could get injured. There are some players they need to make decisions on to help build next year’s roster. Many have shown flashes in the majors and shown success in the minors. This winter’s decisions will be more informed if they open these 7 spots. I endorse the Tiger Plan

I think he will be a plus on a corner. I am not sure about second base. He moved off shortstop in college to second base and most college second basemen that make it to the majors have moved to a corner. His DP rates relative to the rest of the second basemen was underwhelming in Wichita. That rate was below Julien’s in AAA this year. Both small samples. The combination of his injuries and his earlier move off shortstop lead me to wonder if his best spot is on a corner. First base for this year and hopefully left field next year where his athleticism will be an asset.

Clemens was a cash pick up. He has been very helpful. How many of his home runs have been critical this year? He is third among Twins positional players in WPA though he joined the team during the season.

Keaschall’s best fit positionally might be first base. Hopefully they will get him back in the outfield next spring. He could fit at a corner there also. He will need to hit well for any of those spots.

Pitching depth moves are necessary. I appreciate how players like Noah Davis continue to fight to get their shot in the big leagues. Every once in a while they shine in that short window and stick. Thanks for the article @Cody Christie. I probably wouldn’t have noticed him otherwise. I learned my lesson writing off the addition Carl Willis years ago based on his past performance. Good luck to Noah.

France had the same grade 60 raw power. In his last minor league year he was pulling the ball in AAA 43.4% of the time. He was over 40% throughout the minors. Long is 35.5% this year after 33% last year. France pre2019 - Long pre2025 FV 40 - 40 Hit 45/50- 30/40 Game Power 50/55 - 30/55 Raw Power 60/60 - 60/60 Speed 30/30 - 40/40 Field 40/40 - 30/40 France was going into his 24 year old season and put up an OPS of 1.247 after this report. It was BABIP fueled. Long is 23 going into this season where he has put up a BABIP aided 1.115 after his report. Major league pitching requires adjustments. France needed to go the opposite way to make use of his contact skills. He did not need to in the minors. I should add that all along I have been ready to trade Coulombe for Long if they are sellers. I don’t want add any prospects to the deal though. I think they have something similar in Miranda who also rides the roller coaster of BABIP.

I agree. It was a way of pointing out I wouldn’t offer them more than Coulombe other than to offer the player that comps to long on the other end of his career. I certainly am not adding a prospect to get Long. His positional inflexibility makes him an option as a starter or a player that shuttles between AAA and the majors. I don’t think he is a starter in a playoff team. He is Ty France. The story of France’s career is BABIP. The Padres traded him in 2020 his best season by OPS and a season with a BABIP of .390. He was all star in 2022. A season in which he had a BABIP of .340 in the first half and .238 in the second half. He has been the same ball in play hitter all of these years. Long looks to be the same player. He has a good wRC+ of .136 but how much of that is driven by his BABIP of .378? Miranda is also a ball in play reliant on BABIP player. I don’t think Ty France has played on a playoff team. It is hard to picture Jonathon Long as the first baseman on a playoff team. How much do they need to give up for that player? I think a few months and a playoff series of Coulombe is more than sufficient.

I think the key here is the two years additional service time. How often have the Guardians been on the fringe of the playoffs and traded a player with two additional years of service time? Is the sweet spot for return vs control remaining one extra year? Ryan Jeffers is in that sweet spot. Conversation about Ryan, Duran and Jax seem a year premature.

Good point. Chaparro’s future value by Fangraphs was 35+. 40 is a bench player. 35 is emergency call up.

Would a comp be Ty France? France’s power in the minors was better with his partial season in AAA with 27 home runs and a 1.247 OPS before being called up but before that had moderate power that might not translate to the majors well. Perhaps Ty France lite when comparing their minor league numbers. France also played 3B and 2B. Ty France was moved at the Covid season deadline for Austin Nola when he was a .300 hitting catcher. Andres Munoz and two others also went to Seattle. I think I would make the trade Coulombe if the Twins are sellers. If the Cubs need more I would add Ty France to the deal.

I have been thinking about this for a while. Is there a way we can measure how well they have done? My bias is I am really familiar with the Twins failures and not so familiar with the failures of other teams. It seems like the Twins fail much more than they should. What data would shed light on how well they raise their young? Fangraphs FV data goes back a while. I wonder if that is the place to start.

France has skill with the bat. He puts the ball in play more than most. He can hit the ball to the opposite field but not so much so that they shade him that way in the infield. This combination of skills helps with runners on base and runners in scoring position which can help in boosting clutch numbers a little. Does he turn into a different hitter in clutch situations? No. His skill set is just a little more helpful in those situations. I think there are some similarities to Donovan Solano where he can be good off the bench and in certain match ups but exposed playing every day.

I am not sure these recent deadline trade are helpful to me. These two elements would be helpful. Looking at Duran and Jax, what comps do they have for relievers traded with two additional years of control? How did the prospects in return perform for their new team? This might take two studies that go back 6-10 years. We need to go back far enough to see what the prospects contributed while their new team had control. What should we expect from a 45 FV as compared to a 55? How does the risk associated with the future value play in? What was the return for relievers with 3 years of control (including current) in terms of future value and risk? What was the return for a solid lefty on an expiring contract? We need to stop using prospect rankings. There is nothing to learn from them. You can’t compare season to season or organization to organization. You can’t compare winter to midsession update. The midseason update is always skewed by prospects graduating out pushing others artificially higher in the list at the deadline. Rankings are useless in trying to learn from previous deals.

Teams need 3 starters in the playoffs and a 4th at times depending on how quickly they win a series. It doesn’t matter what arbitrary number between 1 and 3 someone one the outside gives them. Just for context Joe Ryan is 18th by fWAR at the break. Looking at the four teams that might have that elite prospect match. The Dodgers have no one above him and one in the top 30. The Red Sox have Crochet above him and no one else in the top 30. The Tigers have Skubal above him and no one else in the top 30. The Phillies have Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo above him. Ryan would be a significant playoff rotation upgrade for at least three of these teams.

Boston is a great match and great point about their desperation. I would hold out for Anthony over Mayer though. If the Dodgers are in the talks Boston is going to have to outbid them and Rushing. The Twins would have to make them at least believe the Dodgers are pursuing Ryan.