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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Slash stats need large samples. A full season isn’t enough. It would be tremendously foolish to make decisions based on a partial season of slash stats. Even more foolish to throw out the best games or worst games. All of that doesn’t make mathematical sense. Instead of in season slash stats I think Statcast offer a better picture of how a player has hit the ball with their expected stats. Clemens and Keaschall are tied for third on the Twins behind Martin and Buxton by xwOBA. Clemens ranks 16th among first basemen with over 300 PAs. 1B - AL Central xwOBA .347 Clemens (16) .346 Torkelson (17) .345 Pasquantino (18) .342 Manzardo (20) .319 Vargas (30) I suppose we can ignore the quality of his contact this year. We can ignore how he started with the Twins. We can ignore his best game. Maybe that was all luck.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t see a reluctance to use him. He was in the organization a little over a month before getting in a major league game. In that time he was the primary catcher in St. Paul. Gasper did start 6 times at catcher over that span but it was Jeffers almost every day. Wouldn’t it have been easier to evaluate him playing routinely in AAA rather than getting the 6 of 27 that Gasper was given after Vazquez was out? Pereda has 6 of 10 starts since Jeffers went down. That seems to be the right mix as he gets to know the pitchers.
  3. jorgenswest
    Jhonny Pereda getting a lot of credit from Woods Richardson on the game he called. They may have found a major league catcher.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is the game in mlb tv?
  5. jorgenswest
    Slash stats need such a large sample that I appreciate the statcast expected stats that are based on quality of contact. I think they are a better predictor of future success for those with a small sample in their career. The Twins top four in xwOBA .388 Martin .369 Buxton .347 Clemens .344 Keaschall Clemens ranks 16th in MLB among those that play 1B with over 300 PAs. He is at least an average defender. Only Alvarez has a better xwOBA than Martin in LF. Martin has a positive DRS and OAA in LF. I don’t think they have a better option other than to build around these four players. Three will be very inexpensive. I also think they need to bet on other inexpensive players in Wallner, Lewis and Lee. Betting on inexperienced players to take a step forward was crucial in the 26 win improvement from 2016 to 2017. They may lose the bet but it is time to bet on the player’s in the system.
  6. jorgenswest
    Does the catcher math change if they implement the challenge ABS system? Maybe there is a once good prospect catcher out there that hasn’t been a good framer. Luis Campusano comes to mind. If Larnach isn’t in the plans than maybe they go for a swap or maybe Campusano is removed from the 40. I wouldn’t devote significant resources towards the back up catcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    That doesn’t stop the Twins from exchanging some of the 14 position players currently rostered.
  8. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins have found their left fielder. Austin Martin has a 2 OAA and 3 DRS in 172 innings. His actual slash stats are very good and his expected stats even better.
  9. jorgenswest
    No extra player when rosters are already at 28.
  10. jorgenswest
    I had to look up fall guy, No. He won’t be the fall guy.
  11. jorgenswest
    The stat lines are showing different things. He is doing damage against right handed pitching once the lefty leaves the game. Batting at the bottom of the order he probably sees that lefty twice at most. He is also doing damage as a pinch hitter. Pinch hitting is harder coming in cold so that is valuable. Larnach for his career also does well in games started by a lefty. Wallner has not done well in games started by lefty. At the end of the day it is the bigger picture of performance that matters. As a Twin Clemens has a better than league average OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher and right handed pitcher. All of samples are small though. It is enough that I would want to see next year. Jeffers is another player that has this odd split. Over his career he has been better in games started by a right handed pitcher than left handed pitcher though the splits are quite the opposite. Jeffers finds his way to make an impact in those games in spite of starting with a platoon disadvantage.
  12. jorgenswest
    Maybe. Experience against major league pitching is also a factor. This is his first season with sustained playing time for the majority of the season. I think he has a better chance of improving than Larnach who is a year younger. He has been helpful when the Twins have faced a lefty handed starter. He has a better than league average OPS of .730 across 7 starts and 8 games off the bench when a lefty has started,
  13. jorgenswest
    Wow that was a fantastic at bat for Clemens in the 9th! How many balls with 3-2 count did he need to foul off until getting one he could attack? Over his career he has positive OAA at 1B, 2B, LF and RF. He also plays 3B adequately enough. He has dominated multiple games this year. I hope all of these players playing for their careers show up this month.
  14. jorgenswest
    Will Mendez get some time at 1B? That is something the Twins have said they want to try with him. Cam Collier is a 1B/3B. So is Amick.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have wondered about his fit in the pen also. I don’t think I would have seen Seth Lugo as a fit in the pen after his two seasons as a starter with the Mets. I think of relievers as pitchers that miss bats. I looked at the top 20 relievers by innings pitched only 4 of them have double digit K/9. Woods Richardson would be in the middle at 8.01 and I think that will tick up in relief. He might help the teams in relief.
  16. jorgenswest
    Outman’s glove is going to need to be very good. The closest comp he can aspire to would have to be Michael A Taylor who has a career OPS of .668 and still has a major leagues innings job.
  17. jorgenswest
    This is not a logjam. They need more logs like Ryan and Lopez.
  18. jorgenswest
    Has it ever been reasonable to believe that Keaschall would play an average 2B? Take a look at all of the second basemen who have enough innings to be qualified this year. They were shortstops. They played it in the minors and some in the majors. There is one player that was drafted as a college 2B and hasn’t played SS in professional ball. Brandon Lowe is a 2B because of his career wRC+ of 124. He has never been below 100 in a season. That more than offsets his career -22 OAA and -24 DRS at 2B. There are two other players I found with some shortstop play yet many second base innings in their careers. Brendan Donovan and Jeff McNeill have been used more at shortstop in the minors and some in the majors than Keaschall but they were not drafted as shortstops. They have a lot of major leagues innings in the outfield as well as 3B and 1B. Teams find a way to get their bat in the game. The Twins need to find a way to get Keaschall’s bat in the game. If he is a below average 2B it will be OK if he can maintain a wRC+ of around 120 like the three unicorns above.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am trying to find an analysis of the BP’s defensive metric for outfield that is not done by BP. Anyone leads? Here is one from 2023 on RDA which is a main component of DRP. I would like to find something not done by BP that argues that we should be paying attention to DRP over OAA. There aren’t many baseball players that can hit and play a near average centerfield. Right now I think Buxton is better than near average. Even if accepting BP’s assessment of his slightly below average defense he still looks to be the best option in CF for the Twins next year.
  20. jorgenswest
    Almost all second baseman are shortstops in the low minors and were shortstops in college if drafted a from there. Players like Keaschall, Julien and Steer did not leave college as shortstops. At the draft the Twins had to know that it was going to be a stretch for them to play up the middle at the major league level. The Twins chose skill with the bat over skill with the glove. Noah Miller was an exception but they moved on from him. It might be a good strategy. Developing an adequate glove might be easier than developing an adequate bat. How much impact does a swing of 4 or 5 OAA have on a season? Keaschall’s bat and an adequate second base can help the Twins win. Above average glove or above average bat? If you can only have one which do you prefer?
  21. jorgenswest
    One other thought… I don’t think one or two months of data is very valuable for making decisions. Kyle Stowers was awful in 172 plate appearances after being acquired by the Marlins last year. He had an OPS+ of 55 and a -6 OAA in the outfield. It is really hard to perform worse than that. To the Marlins credit they gave him the one thing he needed in consistent play at the major league level. He has rewarded them this year. Improvement isn’t linear and even a player at 26 can be much better at 27.
  22. jorgenswest
    One thought… Trading Duran, Jax and Varland has been difficult for me to accept. I get the other deals whether it be a trade of salary or a trade of a player on an expiring contract. I will even accept that counting on Browck Stewart to be healthy next year was unreasonable. These are the arguments for these deals. Relievers are Fungible I guess the logic is that relievers are fungible and a bullpen can be rebuilt inexpensively. I think that logic is tragically flawed. While the ERA of a reliever fluctuates more than a starter or regular position player I do not believe that their talent or skill is fluctuating. A talented reliever remains a talented reliever. It is the inherently small sample of a reliever that causes the ERA and even FIP to vary. Both need a large sample to stabilize. For Falvey to be correct he needs to build a bullpen next year using fewer resources than he acquired at the deadline. Prospect Hauls are Possible The other flaw in thinking is that a haul can be acquired at the deadline. The prospects hauls of the 2010s are no longer. Somehow simply being in the top 100 of prospects has taken on a special status. The reality is that being in the middle or back half of the top 100 is far different than the top 10. I would guess a prospect in the 40s is more similar to a number 200 prospect than one in the top 10. The Twins didn’t demand that top flight prospect and gave up the only leverage they had when they traded Duran. They didn’t get a haul and there probably wasn’t one to be had. De Vries was moved and I don’t think the Padres take Duran over Miller given the service time. Last year no top flight prospect moved. No top flight prospects were moved in 2023. You can’t gut your teams and get players with better than an FV50 anymore. There is no reason to trade that extra service time at the deadline. You don’t get enough value in return.
  23. jorgenswest
    Concur. I really believe this is critical for position players. I have been diving into the 2016 Twins and 2017 Twins. The 2016 Twins won 59 games. The 2017 Twins won 85 games. How did that happen? One thing I noticed is the Twins had the second youngest batter age in the AL at 26.9. The Astros were the youngest at 26.4. The Astros improved by 17 games in 2017 and won the World Series. The Rays were 3rd by average batter age in the AL. They went from 68 to 80 to 90. Over in the NL the DBacks were 26.4. They went from 69 wins to 94 wins. I should add the Phillies also. They were 26.9. They did not improve the next year. This is not a deep dive. Mauer’s PAs skew that 26.9 number up. The Phillies didn’t have any starter that was 30. The season to season improvement of Buxton, Sanó, Rosario, Polanco and Escobar were a big contribution to the success. They did sign one free agent in Castro. He was a very nice upgrade over Suzuki. As for Martin and the others under 27. I would prefer the Twins bet on the improvement of their own players as opposed to trying to squeeze one more year out of a player in the decline phase of their career. I would bet on Martin rather than spend the 10-20 million it might take to get Bader back for one year. The pay off of finding a pre-arb player that contributes to wins is worth the gamble.
  24. jorgenswest
    Just some data. Brooks Lee is a -4 OAA in 468.1 innings or -1 for every 117 innings. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa didn’t play SS at 24. He played 3B. At 25 he had a -1 OAA in 121 innings at SS. At 26 he was a regular SS and had an OAA of -6 in 1360 innings. He then grew into an average fielding shortstop for a while. Now 30 he has an OAA of -3 in 815 innings or -1 in every 272 innings.
  25. jorgenswest
    Is the age 24 season early for a consensus?
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