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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They aren’t going to know if he is ready. No team really knows. One thing in his favor is his glove. If he has struggles at the plate he still should have a plus glove on a corner while he grows with his bat. He needs a real shot to win the job in the spring.
  2. jorgenswest
    Samples are so deceiving. What hope did people have in Stowers leading up to 2025? Entering his age 27 season he had a good 2022 AAA season with a wRC+ of 134 in AAA. Over three up and down seasons in Baltimore with an OPS+ of 83 and negative OOAs from corner OF. He used up his options. After the trade he had a 56 wRC+ in 172 PAs for the Marlins. Would the Twins have that kind of patience for a player whose value is the potential of his bat? That is the same wRC+ as Roden with the Twins. Outman is 75. Stowers turned it around and found that bat he showed in the minors. It took three years to find it. It takes so much patience with some players. Sometimes patience beyond their available options. How much patience should the Twins have with Roden or even Outman? There is no guarantee they will find the bat they had in the minors.
  3. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the hope. A few thoughts. I think both Jenkins in the outfield and Prielipp in the pen can help from opening day. If they can’t get a player for Larnach it is OK to go the Rosario direction and let him go. Change in leadership brings new energy to any organization. They need that energy.
  4. jorgenswest
    Teams have been holding on to their prospects. It is really hard to get a prospect with an FV over 50 and if you do they come with the risk of being a few years away. According to ESPN one prospect with an FV of 50 moved this year in DeVries. The Twins got two of the four 50s that moved in Tait and Abel. I wonder if the blow up path is available anymore if the top 20 or so of the top 100 are untouchable. It would have been great to find a Stowers but a year ago at this time he looked like the guys the Twins acquired this year. He had been up and down for three years with the Orioles with an OPS+ of 83 and a minus glove on the corner. He was awful for Miami in 172 PAs after the trade with an wRC+ of 56. That is Roden’s wRC+ as a Twin. Outman as a Twin is 75. Somehow he turned it around. I wouldn’t have traded Duran or Varland or Jax without getting back that elite prospect. As many told me I was asking too much and that wasn’t going to happen. It didn’t. I would have kept them and moved them next deadline if they were out of it. I think the return would have been close to the same.
  5. jorgenswest
    Discouraging.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t think the Twins should make trades where they give up quality for quantity. They don’t need more depth in their prospect pool. They need elite players and must get top pitching prospects back. Let’s not redo the Santana deal. They don’t need to trade Lopez or Ryan.
  7. jorgenswest
    Milwaukee the last two years is pretty close. In the end they looked good but look back at the previous few years of those relievers heading into the season.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think it will be Abel tomorrow
  9. jorgenswest
    Concur. Would a path to a trade be a team trading a bat with one or two years left for prospects or possibly a team trying to trade a contract? I think those kinds of deals happen every off season. The Twins have the prospect depth to win in these kinds of trades. Someone is probably going to push me for specifics and I don’t have them. I would be really surprised though if no good bats move this winter.
  10. jorgenswest
    To answer the question I think the Twins are poised to compete in 2026. They have work to do. I don’t think they have anyone in the current bullpen that will step up to replace the relievers they lost. They are going to have to find most of those pieces among their many starters. Maybe it is Bradley, Festa and Priellipp heading. Look at the pens of the Mariners and Brewers. They have both continued to trade off successful relievers and replaced with players acquired in trade or even off waivers. They need to spend prospect capital to acquire a top of the line up bat. They have the prospect depth to make this kind of trade. They need to push their payroll up towards the league median. That really is the only way the Pohlad’s can follow through with their promise of commitment. There is no other measure. Will Falvey and the Pohlad’s follow through? We are inundated with places to debate that. I highly doubt it but let’s debate that elsewhere. I would be interested in a different debate here. Do they have enough talent and resources to build a competitive team next year?
  11. jorgenswest
    Hatch could be a nice story. I think the better fit would be the “next Carl Willis” who joined the Twins at 30 and pitched well in relief for three seasons including the 1991 World Series. I am not sure which is more likely. Will Hatch have an important role in the pen and finish the 2026 year with the Twins? Will Gasper be the back up catcher and finish 2026 with the Twins? It seems unlikely that Gasper will be the second catcher but I am not sure Hatch has a role larger than the back end of the pen that will be DFA’d by May 1.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins are also playing for today. Today matters. The Twins should be playing for 2026. 2026 matters. Call up Mick Abel. Get the three injured starters back on the mound. Some will get a look in the pen. Look at Taj Bradley in the bullpen. Fight to win each game. That fight now will matter next year.
  13. jorgenswest
    Aren’t the Brewers one of the best defensive teams in the league? Isn’t Ortiz a key to that as one of the best defensive shortstops? I don’t think anyone who has watched him play defense the last two years would think he is anywhere near replaceable. The Brewers are fast, young and play defense. Turns out that is an inexpensive model. They are in the bottom half of home runs and 10th in OPS. In spite of the middling team slash stats they lead the league in runs scored. Maybe we need to look beyond OPS to decide what is replacement level.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Abel, Bradley, Festa, Lopez and Woods Richardson but we don’t need to wait until September to find a place for them when ready. I hope we see Abel in his next start. Some will have to pitch from the pen but that won’t prevent them from starting next year. I don’t think it would be wise to add anyone to the 40 other than those that are certain to be protected from the rule 5 draft in the winter. It just gives them more flexibility to build the roster during the winter. Not playing in September doesn’t prohibit Eeles or Jenkins from making the roster next spring. I don’t know what to make of Fedko’s high BABIP and relatively low EV in AAA. I guess I would not trust the AAA slash stats to be very meaningful in this small sample with the extreme BABIP not supported by a high EV. I think the eyes of those seeing him play in person every day would be the better judge. I don’t think I would add Sabato to the 40 man in the winter. His lack of positional flexibility suggests that he is either a starter at 1B or DH or not on the 26 man roster. He isn’t very helpful on the bench. I would add Gonzalez because he has the upside of a 21 year old. I think he should continue in AAA though.
  15. jorgenswest
    Outman is a very good centerfielder. The last three years the Twins have spent money to acquire a one year solution as the back up centerfielder in Taylor, Margot and Bader. At -11 OAA across 1500+ major league innings Outman has established himself to be very good with the glove in centerfield. He doesn’t need to be an average major league hitter to help this team as their inexpensive back up centerfielder.
  16. jorgenswest
    My apologies. I will be more clear. My original thought was the can better compete for bats that will be moved in a trade than a free agent bat. “Whatever it takes” means just enough to best other teams in the trade market for that bat. I feel they have the depth in their prospect pool to win those kinds of deals. BTV isn’t perfect and I don’t subscribe but it has shown to be a reasonable measure for what it would take to win a deal. I would trade what it takes to add a bat this winter. I don’t know which bats will be available. A few moved last winter in trade so I assume some will be moved again. I don’t know what it would take. Do need to have those answers to suggest that free agency isn’t the only route to a bat and that the trade route might be better?
  17. jorgenswest
    I appreciate your effort in putting this together. Particularly for the players that came up with the Twins or found their first success with the Twins I continue to care that they do well. I read you recap with interest.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is that what BTV said it would take?
  19. jorgenswest
    Whatever it takes. The Twins have the prospect capital to make it work. They aren’t out of reach. It will take more to get the younger Contreras. Someone with BTV might offer a starting point.
  20. jorgenswest
    You would want me running the team because I would be very willing to trade prospects. Two examples without looking at the rosters if every team. Contreras from Milwaukee is a possibility as the Brewers have a catcher coming and they are willing to deal players as they get expensive in arbitration. Contreras from St. Louis is playing 1B and St. Louis might want out of the contract. Those are two roads the Twins can look either getting an arb2 or arb3 or someone who has a year or two left on the free agent deal. Both players have two years left with the elder Contreras having a club option for 2028.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don’t think a free agent is the best route because the long term commitment doesn’t always work well for mid market teams. They could compete for Alonso or Bellinger who have player options and would be wise to get into the market at a high point. They would fit at 1B but it wouldn’t be worth it. At catcher they could fill some of that salary space to extend Jeffers. In any case they should play him 2/3 of the time next year and his wRC+ of 113 will fit pretty well there. I would rather they give up prospect capital for a top of the line up bat. That might be a bat that has a year or two left in arbitration before they become a free agent. Those kinds of deals happen every winter. The Twins don’t need long term control here. They have been pretty successful at building a prospect pool and not so successful at reaping the fruits of that pool. They can afford to trade from their prospects. A reasonable response would be that the Twins wouldn’t do either. Probably true. I am not here to guess what the Twins will do. I am just offering my thoughts on what they should do. Responding to the OP I think there is a road to a competitive team in 2026.
  22. jorgenswest
    They need to get back to 2023 where they had the median payroll. They can contend in 2026 with that commitment from the Pohlad’s. They say they are committed. We need to see it with there pocketbook. Tearing it down will lead to an endless cycle of mediocrity or worse. They have a two year window with Lopez and Ryan. Maximize that window.
  23. jorgenswest
    I agree. One of my frustrations with the Twins of the 2000s was that they would not ever go big at the deadline to get add to the top of the line up or playoff caliber starter. They would make a bench move or add to the bullpen. Would I have that same frustration with the Brewers of the last 7 years? They are in great position this year. They added a second catcher and some injured arms. To @Mike Sixel’s point they are relying on their system instead of adding bench or bullpen pieces with the exception of getting that catcher. I hope this is their year.
  24. jorgenswest
    How have the Brewers done in the playoffs? Did trading off elite pieces prevent them from winning playoff series? Should they have made bigger moves at the deadline? Since they last won a playoff series in 2018 I think they have gone 2-10 in their last 5 seasons in the playoffs. This year looks different but they look pretty similar to the Twins of the 2000s.
  25. jorgenswest
    The floor for their commitment to building a winning team and culture is funding a payroll that is at the league median. By sportrac that would be around 159 million this year. I assume that moves up but 160 million next year would be a good entry point for commitment.
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