jorgenswest

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach? The 13 I have seen… Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

Would you be OK with moving the 6 expiring contracts and then giving a shot to these three? I certainly would for Martin and Julien. I have lost trust in the management. I also think that at least two of the three will have to get a shot if the management does the most important job of getting a good return for the expiring contracts.

I am sure they have enough to take calls. Their leadership needs to be deeply involved in every move. We are suggesting they move more than a quarter of their roster before they even get to these three. They don’t need to trade the three above and the return would be minimal. Focus elsewhere and let’s see what they can do in the final two months when 6 or 7 roster spots open up. The quality if these trades is more important to their future than the quantity.

They need to do a great job of trading their expiring assets. That should be their primary focus. Let’s focus on targeting the return for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and even Paddack. Let’s see if they can find a match and get a lottery ticket for Vazquez and France. I will add one more in Jax but those conversations should be short. Set a too high bar and hold your ground. Stay focused on those deals that comprise more than a quarter of the roster. They can’t go into the frenzied trade deadline having serious conversations about 11 or 12 players. That would be a recipe for failure. Priorities Take serious offers on Jax. Do the homework on the top prospects offered. Get an A+ deal or retain him. Work hard in the deals for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and Paddack. Identify those players outside of the top 100 that will out perform their perceived future value. Find a new home for Vazquez and France and give those two months to Gasper at catcher and more playing time for Clemens. There is a lot of work to do this deadline. Let’s not distract it by trying to find a new home for the three above.

They should only accept anunrealistic offer where the overwhelming consensus is an A+ deal for the Twins and BTV doesn’t think it is a fair deal. They also need to manage this correctly. Let all of the teams fight over Jax. Hang up the phone unless the offer blows them away. Once Jax is traded at a high bar. Raise the bar for Duran and see if a team pays up. A good outcome is the Twins retain both. A great outcome is they get two 55 FV players for Jax. Players with a future value of #3 starter or plus regular while retaining Duran. If they get a catcher in the deal they could take more risk with future value there. If the offer is two FV 50 players I hope they pass. Players don’t start at their future value when they hit the majors. They will need to invest enough at bats or innings into a player playing below average for a few years to realize that future value of average regular or #4 starter. The hope would be by year 3. By the time they do hit that future value we will probably be talking about trading them soon after. They need to shoot higher than many of the players in the top 100 or they need to use their leverage and wait a year. Meanwhile they really need to focus on the expiring contracts. That is the real work here. Duran wasn’t a top 100 prospect and needed 4 years to get the majors. Ryan wasn’t a top 100 prospect but in his fourth year he is among the best starters in baseball. The real work needs to be identifying those players outside the top 100 and target them in return for Castro, Bader, Coulombe and Paddack.

@Seth Stohs reported that they released Cartaya and not Camargo. Camargo had Tommy John surgery.

Does anyone wonder why Caissie isn’t playing over Ian Happ for the Cubs right now? This is his second year at AAA so he has had plenty of AAA plate appearances to be ready. It has to be that the Cubs don’t see him as an upgrade to Happ. Perhaps they don’t want to expose his weaknesses to major league pitchers and drive down his trade value. Has Matt Bush dropped in value after outperforming Caissie in AAA but the struggling in the majors? Does anyone wonder why his strikeout rate increased in his second year at the level? It seems like it should drop with more experience. Caissie has a wRC+ of 142 this year. That is encouraging. It is on par with Gasper and Martin who have a 144 wRC+ for St. Paul. He is a right fielder that looks pretty similar to Matt Wallner to me. At this point his age is in his favor but there needs to be growth and the strikeout rate hasn’t improved. It is really hard to fix strikeouts and major league pitchers are going to take advantage of that swing and miss. I am listening on Jax but the Cubs need a better headliner for Ryan or Duran.

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective? At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax? I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here.

Putting this in before Jax pitches the 9th. I don’t want to be reactive but I think it might be the time to deal him. His age is a factor that might negate the two additional years.

We don’t know anything. I accept that. I think then FV value is more meaningful than a number. Would you accept a deal where the best player acquired has an FV of 50 in the various sources available. Maybe they get two of those guys. In your opinion would that be enough for Ryan? Duran? Jax? For me I think it would be for Jax. I need more for Duran. I need someone seen among the best for Ryan.

They haven’t done it. All they are doing is resetting the clock. Joe Ryan is finally to the point where he is a game 1 worthy playoff starter and they might trade him they fully realize his talents. In Duran’s case we needed to wait four years before he was on the roster. He wasn’t around to help the playoff teams in 2019 and 2020. Ryan wasn’t ready in 2023 to make an impact as a playoff starter. He has pitched two playoff innings. That isn’t doing it. Why are some so hopeful they are traded now instead of next year? Hardly any impactful player is traded with this much service time. Rightfully so teams ask for a king’s ransom to let them go. So far we have come up with Juan Soto.

Do you trust this owner and this front office to hold out to make sure they get this kind of talent? I am asking that they set the bar very high and be blown away by an offer. I don’t want them to take an offer that BTV would rate as equal. They have the leverage. Don’t settle for a two top 100 prospects.

Soto did have those three seasons playoff control. His haul was amazing. The return the Twins get for giving up three years playoff control better be a lot closer to the Soto haul as opposed to the Berrios haul. Otherwise wait a year It is far easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it to acquire one and if we have new owners and possibly leadership by next deadline they can set the direction. As for comps I wonder if the Rays or Guardians have moved a pitcher with three years of playoff control at the deadline. They seem to be models of teams that keep turning over talent.

I am looking for comps of all star level pitchers that have been traded at the deadline with 3 seasons of playoff control left. There was one player last year traded with that control. For the previous season and a half he had been a league average player. Chisholm is not a comp. In all these discussions I haven’t seen anyone bring one forward but I haven’t read through every discussion.

It isn’t my board I am worried about. I don’t know anything and can only go by MLB or Fangraphs. It is the Twins board I am worried about. Did you hear Levine talk about how they use these boards to sell deals to the owner or the Twins base? They are already trying to sell us that they are insisting on multiple top 100 prospects. That is meaningless. Most of the top 100 are not going to be impactful major leaguers. I don’t know who is in the top 10 or so of their top 100 but that has to be the bar they set. They have to se it there and be right or wait until next year. If I trusted them more to be right I might be more willing. I don’t want to end up with a #4 or #5 starter and a bench player for any of these three. The return of two top 100s that they received for Berrios is not enough with this much control left.

That was the Berrios deal. Two FV 50 or 55 prospects in Woods Richardson and Martin. In Fangraphs updated report Martin was #48 and Woods Richardson was #85. In reality they were both closer in future value to the #250 than those in the top 10. The majority of the top 100 hasve a future value of 50 which extends towards 200. If the Twins are going to give up 3 years of playoff control they need to get more than multiple top 100s. They need to get more than they received for Berrios.

It doesn’t take many. There are a few. Otherwise I will wait until next year and take the multiple 100s if they are sellers.

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100. Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough.

I don’t think Bader is enough to get the catcher so wondering if adding Gonzalez to Bader would be enough. This kind of deal is not unusual. It might be uncommon at the deadline but there likely is a deal like this every year. Last year the Dodgers got a prospect added with Edman. Two years ago the Rays got a prospect with Sampson. The Padres got the Marlins #21 prospect with Garrett Cooper in that deal. Sometimes a team is insisting on a prospect in return and the other team relents by taking back a lesser prospect in the deal.

Do you think they would prefer Bader over Larnach? In that case it would have to be Bader plus something. I am wondering if Gonzalez would pry away that catcher prospect.

Is he a sell high opportunity? Pair him with Coulombe or Bader or Castro and try to get a legit catching prospect. One of them and Gonzalez to the Phillies for Tait?

Concur. Either way pick a lane. I am picking the other lane. In that other lane I think we need both and more next year. I don’t see a surplus in the bullpen. They need Coulombe back after trading him. They need two more arms after that.

Fair enough on Funderburk. The 59.2 innings with a 4.29 isn’t suggestive of future failure or success but he is 28. He will have an option remaining next year so an additional two month look might be helpful in whether to roster him next year. If they are sellers they will have more roster spots to fill than proven relievers for the bullpen. Do you prefer looking longer at the lefty Misiewizc over him?

They need to take the best offer on Bader. Maybe it will be Kemp. He is doing well enough with the Phillies right now and his expected stats are better than his actuals. I think they would likely offer someone that isn’t going to help the 2025 team. I don’t think they will be getting a significant near major league ready prospect. They will likely need to buy upside or get a player at a lower level. I would be looking for a buy low minor league starting pitcher that they might try to turn into a bullpen arm or catcher depth. In the Phillies system Eduardo Tait would be a dream. He is 18 and a 45 FV high risk prospect but the Twins didn’t add a catcher in the draft. They need a catcher next year but they also need another in the lower end of the system. I would try to get him and be willing to add to the deal to make it work.

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up. Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control? I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value. There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.