jorgenswest

Good call on Knoblauch. He only had one full season on the minors and stole 23 that year. In looking him up I found JT Bruett who stole 62 bases on his Kenosha team and ran into Jarvis Brown again on his Visalia and Orlando teams. As for translating it will be difficult because if you don’t hit in the majors you don’t get the chance to steal bases. Pat Kelly hit well enough. His major league stolen base rate is lower than his minor league rate but he played to age 36. I think all those players would have stolena lot of bases in the majors if they could have hit the ball.

I wonder why now. In the next 7 games the Twins look to face one left handed starter. Should he sit the other games. The Mariners have one lefty in the bullpen so they will see almost all right handed pitchers in that 4 game series. I am for calling him up if he will is worthwhile starting against right handed pitching at least some of the time. Who does he replace in the line up against right handed pitching that improves the team? If calling him just to start that one game in the next 7 against a lefty I think they are better off with Keirsey as the last man on the bench. I don’t think it is reasonable to expect his bat to stay sharp if he is rarely playing.

I saw Alex Marte play for the Visalia Oaks in the 80s. He stole 82 bases for them in 1984. That team stole a lot of bases. I looked up Jarvis Brown. He was a pinch runner on the 1991 World Series team. Prior to that he had a season where he stole 72 bases in Kenosha, I also recall and looked up Herman Hill. He was a pinch runner/defensive substitution on the 1969/1970 Twins. In 1967 he stole 58 bases for Orlando and another 6 in a Florida Instructional League. The last player I looked up is Pat Kelly. He stole 250 bases in his major league career but had a few cups of coffee with the Twins before the Royals took him in the expansion draft. In 1966 he stole 52 bases for AA Charlotte and another 15 up in the instructional league. This is not an exhaustive list. In looking up Visalia for Alex Marte I saw Jim Weaver stole 60 bases on the 1982 team. The Twins lost Weaver to the Tigers in the rule 5 draft. He had a handful of at bats in the majors. Going by my recall it is 82 bases from Alex Marte. For some reason my recall is better for teams 40-50 years ago than the last 25 in the minors. Someone might come up with someone more recent that surpassed 82.

Triple slash numbers can be very deceiving in a single season sample. I would not call last season a break out. The only change compared to this season his batted balls found holes. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA are very close to the same. In fact his expected number are better in 2025 than 2024. He has been the same hitter this year as last but his BABIP fell from .348 to .200. I don’t think it is buying low. It is the same hitter. No one should have believed last year’s numbers were sustainable. The same is true for this year. His ability is somewhere in between, His preseason projection of a wRC+ in the 80s seems reasonable. He is 29. Is a wRC+ in the 80s matched with his defense worth investing in? Maybe. A wRC+ in the 80s is better than Vazquez. I just don’t think it is good enough. They absolutely shouldn’t take him thinking they can get the 2024 numbers out of him. That was a mirage.

The Twins also need to be looking for a catcher. If they are a seller Seattle has Harry Ford blocked by Cal Raleigh. He would be costly.

This might be Gasper’s shot at more consistent playing time. Is he ready? He has 120 minor league starts at catcher including 12 this year. He has allowed 19 of 20 stolen bases in those 12 starts. He has one passed ball and one throwing error. I have watched on mlb.tv and it seems like he could have done better on a few of the wild pitches I have seen. He doesn’t look out of place though. He might be passable in the field if he makes up for it at the plate. I am not here to say he is a good catcher or even mediocre. He might be good enough though. The Twins signed Brian Harper to a minor league contract in 1988. The Angels and Pirates had given up on him as a catcher. He then moved on to the Cardinal, Tiger and A’s organizations. The Twins had a need at catcher and he got a chance in AAA. It wasn’t his catching that got him to the majors. He had an OPS over 1000 in the PCL after 46 games to start the year. He made it to the majors with his bat and his catching was passable enough in 1988 and improved towards average the more he played.

He has caught in three of his last seven games in AAA. If the Twins see catcher as a possibility in the majors it may be worth the time in AAA getting him more games there.

Is Gasper a fit at catcher? The Twins are giving Gasper time behind the plate in AAA. He is hitting well there and maybe can put up a league average OPS in the majors. He didn’t hit well in his first shot where he rarely started. He doesn’t throw out runners well but that could improve with less emphasis on framing. There are some good teams with catchers that don’t throw out runners well. The Yankees Escara has a major league average wRC+ but runners are 17/17 against him. The Astros Caratini has a league average bat over the last two seasons while runners are 31/35 stealing against him.

The hope is Gasper can contribute with the bat. To do that he is going to need regular playing time. Would that be two starts a series? Can they give him some time at catcher over Vazquez against teams that have few base stealers? Can he start for France at first twice a week and another start at DH? In his first stretch with the Twins he started in 9 of 35 games. He is going to need more regular play in order to demonstrate he has a major league bat. If they are looking for a guy to fill that last spot and start occasionally, Keirsey is a better fit with his speed and defense to contribute.

It might be easier but over the last two seasons Hader has began a 10th or 11th inning 16 times and there have up no infield sacrifices in that time. He is so good I have to at least wonder why it has never happened. He has give up just two infield sacrifices over the last 7 seasons. I don’t know how often unsuccessful attempts led to being down in the count 0-2 or how many unsuccessful attempts led to an out at third or a double play pop bunt. Hader does give up stolen bases and stealing third might have been in play but Lee and the remaining bench offered little hope of a successful steal. The options for the Twins in that at bat were dismal. The bats they need to count on at the top of the order performed dismally. Hader outperformed Duran and it cost the game. It is fair to criticize Baldelli in that decision but it needs to be criticism in the context of how difficult it has been to successfully bunt against Hader. I am just trying to add that context since I didn’t see it in the original post. edit: need to fix the 49. It wasn’t what I meant to type and now need to recount. Fixed to 16.

Hader has 0 sacrifice hits against and 0 bunts for hit against in the last two seasons. Vazquez doesn’t need to get a hit. He needs to put the ball in play. His strike out rate is 16.5%. His infield fly ball rate is 7.5%. Those are guaranteed unhelpful. They are also among the lower rates on the team. Baldelli could have pinch hit Bride to bunt. He hasn’t had a successful sacrifice bunt since 2023. Is he any better than Vazquez bunting, I also imagine that there is a chance either bunts it straight back to the pitcher and we have an out at 3rd and a slow runner on first. Clemens has a bunt hit this year and a sacrifice bunt but those were against right handed pitching. Hader is going to be much more difficult.

Bunting off of Hader is not easy for a good bunter. With all of the movement and velocity bunting is not easy. There aren’t very many good bunters like Isbel from the Royals in today’s game Vazquez has a pretty low strike out rate. He pulls the ball less than average. I think the chance of Vazquez putting the ball in play and moving the runner is probably close if not equal to a successful bunt from any of the three. They may even get lucky and Vazquez gets on base.

The Twins used Jonah Bride to pinch run for France earlier this month in one run loss. He has a speed score of 0.6 for the Twins year and his career is 1.5. Would Keirsey (6.4) have been more useful in that situation? His speed score this year trails only Buxton (8.8) on the current roster.

I think Keirsey will be more useful than Bride has been in that last spot on the bench. It will become interesting when Lewis returns and everyone stays healthy. Should they move Bride back in that spot or should opt for speed and defense on the bench?

I recall Bob Hamelin finally getting to the majors after several seasons and many at bats in four AAA seasons. He was Rookie of the Year for the Royals as a DH/1B in 1994. That was the highlight of his career. Maybe the Twins can get a helpful season or two from Sabato.

The Twins do struggle against lefties. That is true for most teams. Hitters across baseball this year have had more trouble against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The difference in OPS is 38 points. In OPS+ terms it is 103 vs right handed pitching and 93 vs left handed pitching. Only 6 teams have an OPS+ over 100 against lefties. The Twins rank 17th against left handed pitching. The Twins need a lefty starter. It will be a wait for Hill and Prielipp. MacLeod is in AAA but hasn’t pitched much returning from injury. If Ober is injured I wonder if Joey Wentz gets a look. None of that is promising for 2025 but there is some hope for a left handed starter in Prielipp and Hill.

Thanks @Cody Christie I am very intrigued. I wrote about this Monday but it didn’t get much notice. Reposting here. On this week’s episode of Inside Twins Drew MacPhail spoke about a pitching plan in the minors that looks to a scheduled four day rotation. They chose pitchers that were not in a starting rotation spot and are giving them a scheduled 4 day cadence in a quasi-starter role pitching 3-4 innings. Travis Adams game log in AAA fits this cadence. The claim is that they are getting more innings than some of their starters and they have seen the strikeout numbers tick up. I went searching for these pitchers on this 4 day cadence other than Adams. Looking at the game logs the group in Wichita was the easiest to identify. Wichita has probably had less interruption in their schedule due to rain helping to keep the cadence at four days. The four quasi starters at Wichita have been John Klein, Mike Paredes, Justin Whorff and Pierson Ohl. There is evidence of others on the same schedule but Wichita had the most clear group. The first claim was that they were matching or surpassing innings of the starters. Not quite. Klein and Paredes have near the same amount of innings as Baker and Rozek who are a 6 day starter schedule. The second claim is that the numbers are improved. Klein has improved in all areas. Strikeout rate is up from 20% to 28%. Walks have dropped 1%. His ERA, xFIP and FIP are clearly better. Last year he threw 100 innings in a starter role. He is on pace to match or better that with his 44 this year. Paredes has gone the opposite direction with his strike out and walk rates. His ERA is better though at 2.49. He is on pace to significantly increase his innings pitched. He is already at 43. Last year he threw 65 innings in a relief role. Whorff was moved to AAA but spent most of this year in AA. In AA his strike out rate went from 24 to 30 and walk rates dropped from 9 to 5.5. His ERA, xFIP and FIP are all improved. He has 34.2 innings this year. Last year he had 71. Ohl started the season late due to injury and joined Wichita on April 25. His strike out rate has gone from 24 to 30 while his walk rate remains below 4%. ERA, xFIP and FIP are much improved over 2024. His innings (32.2) may not match last year’s (102) due to the later start. MacPhail said that the hope is that pitchers will see improved success and be able to build back really well with this 4 day quasi-starter cadence. He ended with that maybe it something we will see in the major leagues with the Minnesota Twins. So far the cadence for the starters in the minors has not changed. They pitch about every 6 days. I think we would see some changes with that starter cadence before we see it in the major leagues. What might that look like? Do they use 8 pitchers in a 4 day cadence planning to get into the 7th or 8th before handing it off to the 5 man bullpen? Is it one group of 4 starters on that cadence with a 9 man pen? Can they afford to have the typical 5 man starting staff and 4 pitchers in the pen scheduled every 4th day leaving 4 unscheduled pitchers in the pen? All teams need to be seeking ways to keep their pitchers healthy while improving their performance. I am glad the Twins are looking for ways to accomplish those goals with their minor league staffs.

There are two opposite pulls for me. I do not think platooning helped last year. I really opposed that short side platoon that created the all right handed line up against left handed pitching. I wanted those left handed batters to play nearly every day and see left handed pitching. I also want all of the players on tthe bench to be ready when needed. I want them growing in their skills. That is in conflict with wanting players like Wallner and Larnach in the line up nearly every day. I don’t even want that bench player to hit for Larnach or Wallner if a lefty reliever enters in mid game. I wonder if the last spot on the bench and the last spot in the bullpen are best utilized by shuttling from AAA. Rules make that difficult though. Players can only be optioned a limited numbers of times during the season and there is wait time before they can return to the majors once optioned.

I can remember them as Twins but Woodson pitched in the early 70s a decade before Smithson joined the team. Woodson had a really good season in 1972 but he was blown out by the Rangers 16-2 in his worst start that year. A serious arm injury cut short his promising career. in 1985 Mike Smithson was part of back to back games where they gave up double digit runs to the Royals. Frank Viola was the starter in the other game.

I hope Boston can help Jorge maximize his talents. I also hope the Twins can tap some unrealized talent from Joey Wentz. Wentz is two years younger so maybe there is more hope. On the other hand this is his third major league team so maybe that diminishes the chance there is more to get from him. The reality is the success of the Twins pitching staff does not ride on the shoulders of the 8th man in the bullpen. It is on the shoulders of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran and Jax staying healthy and performing to their best and a couple of the other 8 stepping up to join them. Alcala is gone and Wentz is here. Moving the needle will require someone stepping up and moving everyone down a notch or acquiring that player that moves everyone down a notch until Topa is the 8th man or Ober is at the back of the rotation. Replacing one 8th man in the pen with another won’t help much.

This discussion has me thinking about the best way to utilize that 13th position player. The Royals always seem to have a stolen base threat that can also be a defensive sub in the outfield. They have used Tyler Tolbert and Darion Blanco in that role. Prior to the DH many teams had a player like Manny Mota to pinch hit for the pitcher. I am not sure that is needed now. The Tigers have been pretty effective pinch hitting but that is more a function of their depth and not a player in the role of pinch hitter. Is there a need for that 13th player to be a regular part of the line up rotation getting 2-3 starts a week? Probably not. If not then would it be more helpful to a team to find a specialist that wouldn’t start that much? Keirsey was that specialist for the Twins. He was 5/7 in stolen bases which probably is below what you need from a specialist. He had a +1 OAA across the outfield. Would he be more valuable than Bride in that 13th position player role? Would Gasper be more valuable in the last spot as a pinch hitter/third catcher that hits from both sides?

I think they need to add a top of the line up bat. If that bat is an outfielder there is still space for Castro, Larnach, Wallner and Buxton in the line up.

Did you notice his four seem fastball that was 95-96 had dropped to 92-93 in the 5th inning?

Hopefully the Twins are studying the 2024 Tigers and their success in the second half in bullpen games. They had 33 bullpen games last year and more in the playoffs. Injuries and a deadline trade of Flaherty left them without 5 viable starters and they figured it out.

I wonder if it is the opposite. They started the year with 7 pitchers that could compete in the major leagues. Now that they are down to 5 would they be more cautious about losing another one?