jorgenswest
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Everything posted by jorgenswest
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Cubs need starting pitching. They have a back up catcher in Miguel Amaya that would help this year. Both have provided their teams 0.9 WAR this year. Starting pitching is a premium but control of Amaya makes him a longer term value. Pitching is expensive. My price would be someone ready to help this year on the offensive side that has control beyond this year. I have no interest in prospects and I am not motivated to trade Paddack. I would listen to an offer like Amaya. Too much to pay? Fine. Keep Paddack.
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While Topa’s ERA is low there are signs of decline from his one outlier successful season of 2023. His sample is small so the ERA estimators are of little value and all over the map. Looking at data that stabilizes early, his average velocity has dropped 2 mph. The sinker his most effective pitch of 2023 is no longer a plus. His strike out rate dropped from 21.9% to 15.5%. His walk rate is up from 6.5% to 8.3%. His swing and miss has dropped from 8.4% to 5.9%. His groundball rate has dropped from 56.7% to 43.5%. It shouldn’t be surprising given his age and injury history. I think it is more likely that we will see the reemergence of the 2024 Alcala than Topa will return to his 2023 form. Most likely neither is returning to their previous peaks but I would give the both a longer run.
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- griffin jax
- jhoan duran
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Thanks. I have done screenshots from video where the broadcast box is different from the game zone box. I am not sure that is the case for yesterday’s game. It is possible that the TV box was different. I also agree that the umpire was excellent and when I am watching in game cast or TV I would go with the umpire unless at least half the ball is in the zone when questioning his call of a ball. Similarly if I question a strike there would need to be a half ball of space between the ball and the strike zone.
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Good point. Wallner also struggled with errors in trying to get right in AAA last year. His fielding percentage in that stint last year is the same as Julien’s in AAA though playing a position that usually has fewer errors.
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Maybe the additional experience of the independent leagues makes a better chance of success than an NDFA. They can always replace any of these Independent leagues is signees with an NDFA later in the season. I am glad the Twins have scouts looking at these players.
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Patience. The same article could have been written about Matt Wallner a year ago at this time. After 146 PAs he has a triple slash of 183/274/349 and then things turned around. Julien is at 85 PAs and Miranda is at 65 PAs. Wallner returned after 297 PAs. Let’s reserve judgment and see what Gardenhire’s staff can do given a long stretch with Miranda and Julien.
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I didn’t find myself alarmed at his response to playing second base last year. In the minors he moved between shortstop, centerfield and third base. He had 5 innings of second base in 2019. It seemed reasonable to me that he would be uncomfortable being thrown into a position at the major league level that he hasn’t really ever played. That’s the kind of move you do in spring trading or you make sure players have experience in the positions they might be needed while in the minors. If they foresee a fit for him at first base or second base that is a conversation they should have with him as they enter this winter. Playing 2B or 1B at the major league level isn’t trivial. The foot work will be different than he has experienced at both positions. The instincts at first base about going to his right will be very different.
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In his 37 PAs since May 17 he has an average exit velocity of 94.0, launch angle of 21, hard hit percentage of 52 for an XBA of .278 and real batting average of .118. His K/BB rates are 14/8. In the 33 PAs prior to May 17 he had an average exit velocity of 85.3, launch angle of 10, hard hit percentage of 31 for an xBA of .179 and a real batting average of .161. His K/BB rates were 15/6. In Tampa this week his average exit velocity for his at bats was 100.3 for an xBA of .407. He had no hits. Progress?
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He played his first full 9 inning game in the field on Tuesday. He played a full game at DH on Wednesday.. They will probably see how he recovers this morning after the two back to back full games. I don’t know if they want to see back to back games in right field before he returns. That might be the next step in the progression or maybe he will return this weekend.
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- jose olivares
- gabriel gonzalez
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Should Fans have excitement for Aaron Sabato?
jorgenswest replied to Trov's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Why not be excited? The realistic easy take for most minor leaguers is that they won’t make it. For me it is part of the fun to catch glimpses of their strengths and be optimistic that they might just beat the odds and become a major leaguer. This is the first stretch that Sabato has given us to be optimistic. Go ahead and be excited. -
Yes. I would imagine followers of other teams have the same worry. Is there a reason the Twins should be more worried? I guess they have been very healthy in the bullpen compared to most so maybe the injuries are coming.
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Bride isn’t that useful on the bench. He isn’t going to pinch run. His doesn’t have plus defense at a key position. He is the emergency catcher. If he doesn’t help on the bench he needs to have a platoon role to be any help. Should he start against left handed pitching? I would prefer Buxton, Hader, Wallner and Larnach so one of them is DH. Castro isn’t even in that lineup. If Vazquez is catching then Jeffers needs to be DH and I will rest Larnach or Wallner. That leaves him on the bench with Clemens, Castro and Larnach/Vazquez. How does he get in the game? After two catchers are injured? If they need a third catcher then I would go with Gasper. He is the more experienced catcher and probably has a better chance of pinch hitting. I don’t foresee Kiersey in a platoon role either. I can foresee him pinch running and playing outfield late in the game as a defensive replacement.
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One significant change did impact line up construction in the mid 70s. The DH meant that the number 9 hitter was no longer the pitcher. There was a much better chance the the number 1 and 2 hitters would see a runner on base instead of an extra out. It allowed teams to rethink line up construction. The Harvey’s Wallbangers Brewers in 1982 had the “perfect” number 2 hitter in Charlie Moore and Jim Gantner. They could bunt, put the ball in play and do all of the things of a Ron Gardenhire number 2 hitter. They started the year with Moore batting second but broke tradition by putting major league’s best hitter in that spot in Robin Yount. A manager change from Bob Rodger’s to Harvey Kuehl made permanent that change. Their lead off hitter not only had a high OBP but contributed also contributed power and speed in Paul Molitor. The Brewers put their two batters most likely to get on base in spots 1 and 2. Moore batted eighth and Gantner batted ninth. Baseball is a copycat sport and some teams took notice including two AL champions shortly after the Brewers season. The 1984 Tigers had their two high OBP hitters batting 1 and 2 in Whitaker and Trammell. In 1983 the Tigers most frequent number 2 hitter was Darrell Evans. The 1986 Red Sox started the season leading off with Dwight Evans followed by Wade Boggs. They had three stolen bases between them but their combined OBP was over .400. The did move Boggs to lead off and used Marty Barrett to bat second by the end of the season. Barrett had an OBP of .353 as opposed to Evans .376 and could be viewed as a traditional number 2 hitter (with the addition of a high OBP) but Boggs wasn’t anything like the traditional number 1 with 0 stolen bases. If there ever was a traditional lineup it was broken at least 40 years ago. Maybe the DH helped to break that tradition.
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He is throwing strikes and keeping his pitch count down recently. He will need a good defense behind him and Buxton, Bader and Correa give him a pretty solid foundation when they are behind him. Seems like a worthwhile back end starter but not a playoff starter. @Doctor Gast trade thought is reasonable. They might try to sell high before an injury or a string of poor outings. This is not the time of year where deals are made though. He needs another good six weeks. I also wonder if he has been taking it up a level with runners in scoring position or once he gets to two outs. He only has 5 strikeouts over his last two starts but three have come with runners in scoring position and another was the third out. None have been to the hitter leading off an inning. Is that even a skill? I think Jack Morris would say it is a skill but I don’t know if there is any evidence of pitchers with that skill other than anecdotal. It certainly helps to keep pitch counts lower.
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While Adams has come in as a reliever they have given him a routine of a starter. The rain has messed with the schedule but they are using him about every 5th day. He has had a few occasions where he had three days rest but he seems more of a planned piggyback starter than a relief role where he comes to the park unsure if he will pitch that day. He is getting experience coming in mid inning so they might see him on a Sands progression where he shuffles back and forth initially with the opportunity to step up and ascend the bullpen ladder.
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- david festa
- travis adams
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I think the Twins use all of their minor league pitchers that they envision with big league potential in a starter in the minors. Sands, Funderburk, Jax, Duran, Varland and Alcalá were all minor league starters the year prior to their major league debut. So we’re Winder, Headrick, Henriquez and Balazovic.The routine of a starter role in the minor leagues is much more conducive to building innings. It leads to a regular routine to work on pitches in the off days. It isn’t about developing a pitcher into a starter role or relief role as much as it is about developing an arm. It is only as they get close to the majors that they may switch roles like Funderburk did in 2023 before arriving in the majors later that year. That 2023 Twins team had few left handed relief options. Adams is working from the pen for the first time this year though his routine is that of a starter where he has had at least 4 days rest between each appearance. His relief appearances appear scheduled. He is on the 40 and the Twins may envision that he will be needed from the pen this year. Has anyone arrived in the majors as a pitcher that wasn’t predominantly a minor leagues starter? Moran and Stashak might be the best examples. Both joined the organization prior to Falvey in 2015. Jovani Moran came through the system as a reliever. Cody Stashak changed from starting to relief in AA. I think they believe the best way to develop Raya’s ability to pitch is in the routine of a starter role. Until he gets close he may stay in that role even if they envision him in a relief role in the majors.
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Brady Shoemaker and Ole Sheldon? I guess there have been two more recent Saints also.
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The only times I have seen Winkel catch is on MiLB.TV so I don’t want to make any definitive statement based on 81 innings. I respect @Seth Stohs knowledge of the organization and his thoughts about Winkel’s catching skill outweigh that one stat over what amounts to 9 games for me. It may be possible that both are true. Camargo has a long track record of success throwing out runners. Enough for me to conclude he is one of the better catchers at throwing out runners in AAA.
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Runners have been success in 24 of 28 stolen base attempts with Winkel catching in 81 innings. That is a high rate of attempts per 9 innings. Since he has 3 assists one of the caught stealings could be a pick off. Catching is much more than controlling the running game though and he may be very good at the other skills that make up the position.
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Camargo also is throwing out runners at a 41% clip. There is one catcher that has been arguably better than Camargo at throwing out runners. Hayden Sanger has thrown out 43% of runners in AAA as well as 3 of 5 while he was in the majors. Campusano in the PCL has thrown out 35% of runners. Camargo also stands out when compared to the rest of the catchers on his team. Some teams have good numbers as a whole (30%) but the catchers have pretty similar rates. When Camargo isn’t catching runners the Saints throw out runners at a 10% clip. His ability to throw out runners appears to be a major league level skill. I am not sure how important it is when he doesn’t hit well but stolen bases has been a bigger part of the game the last few years. Seems like that skill alone is worthy of keeping around as the third catcher.
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- matt wallner
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Makes sense, they have been very intentional about his routine. He was on starting every 7 days and then moved to 6. Six days from his most recent start in AA lands on an off day.
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McCusker has a lot of at bats against same sided pitching in the minors (unlike a left handed hitter that comes up). He has done well against them the last two years by OPS. The one rate that might be most telling in his transition to the majors are strike out and walk ratios. RHP: 33%/8% in 499 PAs LHP: 26%/12% in 211 PAs If he is ready to help against left handed pitching in the majors do they keep him in the majors or do they send him back to AAA to continue to work on hitting right handed pitching? They are in a tough division and they need to win games in the majors particularly against division foes. I would expect Rocco to make decisions based on what gives them the best chance to win that division game.
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@bean5302 Thanks for the link. It is consistent with the Baseball America article. I think their use of him going every 7th day and now every 6th day is focused on that goal: Stay on the mound. It doesn’t close the door on starting. It doesn’t close the door on relieving. A significant injury probably closes the door on both.
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The Twins seem to have an intentional plan about Prielipp. I think the plan is to build a healthy arm with a regular routine of work. Baseball America wrote a Prielipp in their recent Twins organizational report. Zoll talked about the regular once a week work and Falvey said they haven’t ruled out the rotation but that internally he profiles as hard throwing lefty reliever. For now the plan seems all about his health and not developing role for him. I did notice that he progressed from pitching every seventh day to every sixth day. He last pitched for Wichita on the 20th. They have an off day the 26th. Perhaps it is nothing more than being on the developmental list to both work on pitches and simulate a game on the 26th to keep on the 6 day schedule. Let’s see if he returns on June 1. The Twins use of Prielipp is similar to the one the Rangers used with Ragans when he returned in 2021. He was throwing in the covid year of 2020 so maybe he began 2021 more built up but he hadn’t pitched in a game since 2017. He was initially used every 7th day in high A. After 10 appearances he moved to AA after a break of 12 days. The Twins appear to be very intentional about their use of Prielipp. It can be argued that they should be developing him as a reliever and use him from the pen or develop him as a starter and lengthen his outings. I think the Twins will view this as a successful season if he comes out of it with a healthy arm. Hopefully this stay on the developmental list is part of the health plan and not a concern about an injury.
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Should they consider using Paddack to finish the suspended game? He may get the, to the end without need for relief help, I think they can use Woods Richardson as the 27th man for game 2 but they would need to return him as it hasn’t been 15 days. Is Festa ready to pitch again? If the second game gets moved to Wednesday they can still go with SWR or Festa as the 27th man. One benefit is if the Twins only get the suspended game in today and use Paddack he would be available to pitch against the Royals on Sunday.
