jorgenswest

Would a comp be Ty France? France’s power in the minors was better with his partial season in AAA with 27 home runs and a 1.247 OPS before being called up but before that had moderate power that might not translate to the majors well. Perhaps Ty France lite when comparing their minor league numbers. France also played 3B and 2B. Ty France was moved at the Covid season deadline for Austin Nola when he was a .300 hitting catcher. Andres Munoz and two others also went to Seattle. I think I would make the trade Coulombe if the Twins are sellers. If the Cubs need more I would add Ty France to the deal.

I have been thinking about this for a while. Is there a way we can measure how well they have done? My bias is I am really familiar with the Twins failures and not so familiar with the failures of other teams. It seems like the Twins fail much more than they should. What data would shed light on how well they raise their young? Fangraphs FV data goes back a while. I wonder if that is the place to start.

France has skill with the bat. He puts the ball in play more than most. He can hit the ball to the opposite field but not so much so that they shade him that way in the infield. This combination of skills helps with runners on base and runners in scoring position which can help in boosting clutch numbers a little. Does he turn into a different hitter in clutch situations? No. His skill set is just a little more helpful in those situations. I think there are some similarities to Donovan Solano where he can be good off the bench and in certain match ups but exposed playing every day.

I am not sure these recent deadline trade are helpful to me. These two elements would be helpful. Looking at Duran and Jax, what comps do they have for relievers traded with two additional years of control? How did the prospects in return perform for their new team? This might take two studies that go back 6-10 years. We need to go back far enough to see what the prospects contributed while their new team had control. What should we expect from a 45 FV as compared to a 55? How does the risk associated with the future value play in? What was the return for relievers with 3 years of control (including current) in terms of future value and risk? What was the return for a solid lefty on an expiring contract? We need to stop using prospect rankings. There is nothing to learn from them. You can’t compare season to season or organization to organization. You can’t compare winter to midsession update. The midseason update is always skewed by prospects graduating out pushing others artificially higher in the list at the deadline. Rankings are useless in trying to learn from previous deals.

Teams need 3 starters in the playoffs and a 4th at times depending on how quickly they win a series. It doesn’t matter what arbitrary number between 1 and 3 someone one the outside gives them. Just for context Joe Ryan is 18th by fWAR at the break. Looking at the four teams that might have that elite prospect match. The Dodgers have no one above him and one in the top 30. The Red Sox have Crochet above him and no one else in the top 30. The Tigers have Skubal above him and no one else in the top 30. The Phillies have Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo above him. Ryan would be a significant playoff rotation upgrade for at least three of these teams.

Boston is a great match and great point about their desperation. I would hold out for Anthony over Mayer though. If the Dodgers are in the talks Boston is going to have to outbid them and Rushing. The Twins would have to make them at least believe the Dodgers are pursuing Ryan.

Reading comments and I agree that it would really unwise to trade Ryan. Pitching is critical in the playoffs. In order to get three postseasons of Ryan or Duran I would want a 60 and a low risk 50/higher risk 55. I want two players with a projection to be an above average major leaguer if I am trading three years of key playoff pieces. The likelihood is at least one will not meet their projection. There aren’t very many 60s according to Fangraphs but the Dodgers have one in Rushing. I need another significant prospect with him. I think Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee also might have the elite prospect talent to make the deal.

Doesn’t Duran have the least service time among the three (Duran, Jax and Ryan)? I think they have this year plus two more years of control of all three. That is three shots at the playoffs with them where pitching is so critical.

Are there parallels of a potential Ryan deal and the Berrios deal? I think the Berrios deal worked out in the Twins favor but a Ryan deal would require more in return.

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out? The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR. Key elements to the deal the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two well regarded prospects. Martin had a future value of 50 and Woods Richardson a future value of 45. they replaced Berrios’ salary with Sonny Gray. Their 2022 salary was virtually the same but the Twins also had an additional season of control in 2023. Lopez salary slotted in to that top spot in 2024. The Twins received a comp pick for Gray and used it for Kyle DeBarge. Woods Richardson projected as a back end starter at an FV of 45 has fulfilled that projection thus far. He may outperform that projection if he approaches an average starter. Martin has not yet fulfilled his projection of an average regular. Overall the Twins maintained that salary slot from Berrios to Gray to an extended Lopez. Had they extended Berrios they probably would not trade for Gray or choose to extend Lopez. The cost for that slot that Lopez now fills was a season of Berrios (replaced by Gray) and Chase Petty a 50 FV prospect. Would they be better off today with an extended Berrios and Chase Petty or an extended Lopez, Woods Richardson, Martin and DeBarge? I think they are better off with that trade. Matching up the key elements the Twins would be trading 3 possible playoff seasons of Ryan as opposed to 1. If they play themselves out by the deadline it would be 2. to give up that extra season of control and possibly 3 seasons of playoffs I would hope they would get significantly more than players with an FV of 50 and 45. Ownership needs to be committed to replacing Ryan as they were with Berrios The elements don’t match up yet. They should wait a year and consider dealing Ryan if they are out of contention next year. At that time hopefully the uncertainty of ownership will be cleared up and there will be commitment to replacing Ryan prior to the 2027 season. Better yet let’s hope Ryan is leading them to the playoffs in 2027.

It is much easier to trade Ryan than acquire Ryan. I would keep him and his control and let the new ownership decide if they want to pay him. Also isn’t the pipeline a creation of bloggers and writers? Some seem to think it was a promise of Falvey. Every team will have trouble filling out a starting rotation throughout the season. Arguably the Twins started 7 deep. How many teams did better?

On Keirsey and apologies for taking this thread further away from Joe Ryan. They needed Keirsey's glove and arm yesterday. They needed it Wednesday. He made the running catch in the line out look routine though Swanson’s ball had a .350 xBA. Does Martin make that throw? Is he in the right position to make it? Does he take the correct route on Wednesday? Larnach and Wallner are part of the reason balls like that have a .350 xBA. Bad first steps and poor routes make catchable balls look out of reach. We know exactly why Keirsey is here. He does two things that are lacking. He plays a strong outfield on the corners. He can run better than most on the team. Is it worth a spot on the roster? That is debatable. Back to trading Joe. It is hard to know with the uncertainty of the ownership. Are new owners going to spend resources to try to win in their first few years? In that case I would keep their playoff caliber players in Ryan and Duran. I think I would at least keep them both through this season in hopes for new ownership and possibly new leadership. Give that team a chance to build these Twins. It is a lot easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it is to acquire them.

Glad Keirsey was in right field last night. Great play off the wall and perfect throw. Also glad he made that running catch in right field to end the win on Wednesday. Keirsey made the play look pretty routine but that line out by Swanson had a .350 xBA. I thought Martin would be more useful this week. I don’t think he makes yesterday’s play. Wallner and Larnach are why balls like the one on Wednesday have a .350 xBA. Has Martin improved his first step and routes enough to make that play? Again it is a good thing I am not in charge.

False hope? Lame? I must have been enjoying the wrong game.

Rankings are not very helpful. They need context. A winter ranking of 50 or 57 across baseball is much different than a June ranking. It is the same for team rankings. Players graduate and the new class of draftees hasn’t arrived yet. It also needs the context of team. The Blue Jays system isn’t very strong. Isn’t it better to use future value? Nimmala has a FV of 50 by fangraphs. An average regular. He has gone from #87 to #50 in the MLB pipeline and that looks like he improved until you consider the graduates. You also have players hit the higher levels of the minors and struggle. How many Twins have we seen with a 50 in A ball that never became a significant major leaguer? Yesavage has a future value of number 4-5 starter. He just moved to AA and is encountering that struggle. How different is he than Marco Raya who has had essentially the same future value as he climbed the ladder? The Twins are offering three playoff seasons of a top reliever. If the Twins make the playoffs in any of those years Duran significantly improves their chance for success. These two wouldn’t in the next few years. So to answer the question “Could the Jays overpay?” I think the answer is no.

Does he remind you at all of Miranda as a minor leaguer? I am thinking about the Miranda who tore up AA and then AAA.

It is very encouraging to see Raya’s recent success. It is the quote above that jumped out at me though. Is Gasper a possibility as a catcher in the majors? I watched a previous good outing at catcher on MILB TV against the Mud Hens just prior to his injury. Morris and Baker pitched the bulk of that game. Gasper does not throw out runners well yet but maybe there are other aspects of catching where he is an asset. The confidence thing is important. Pitchers need to throw with conviction to be successful.

Let’s suppose this is an idea worth trying. It seems like the right time. They don’t have a viable fifth starter and they could be in selling mode. I don’t think it would be wise to send him to the minors to stretch out. Could they stretch him out in the majors? They don’t have a fifth starter. Start him in that slot and maybe he pushes towards 40 pitches. Make it a bullpen day. The next start he might get through 3 innings and around 45 pitches. It seems like this would give a better chance for the Twins to win those games than sending him out. Should they wait until next spring? I wouldn’t. Let’s find out if Jax is a playoff caliber starter as we close this season. If not return him to the relief role. I don’t know if it is worth considering. If the linked article hadn’t sourced Jayce Tingler in stating the Twins were considering it I would dismiss it as a possibility. Maybe the Twins considered and dismissed it this spring.

If they are sellers I wouldn’t add anyone to the 40 unless they are rule 5 candidates this off season. 40 man flexibility is important in the winter. If they are competing for a playoff spot and Jenkins can help add him.

It’s baseball. It’s entertaining. Perfect combo.

Bullpen is so critical in the playoffs. More critical than catcher. So many of the current Twins are controlled through 2028 like Duran. The deal is fair. They almost certainly would win this deal on paper when the WARs are calculated 6 years from now. I think it lessens the chance they will make a run in the playoffs. I wouldn’t do it.

In the spring I shared a quote from the manager of the Padres about line up construction. He was asked about an alternating line up. He talked about how it can be helpful to have both left and right handed bats in the lineup and that it can keep a pitcher off rhythm.This would vary by pitcher. It probably is more effective to vary the line up when the pitch mix and approach of the lefty vary more between right and left. It made me wonder if we are missing an important piece of data. While true that Larnach isn’t hitting well against left handed pitching, what happens the next few right handed batters after Larnach? Does the pitcher lose a little effectiveness? Plate appearances are not a bunch of independent events that can be optimized by spreadsheet. I don’t know the Twins optimal line up against lefties. Long term I think they are a better team if they allow their better left handed bats some starts against lefties. Game day I wonder if they make it too easy for the left handed pitcher to get in a rhythm with the all right handed line up.

We need a different word than snub. Snub means ignored, rebuffed or spurn disdainfully. Honestly now I need to look up rebuff and spurn to figure out if any fits. He wasn’t ignored. He wasn’t rejected in an ungracious manner. There was no disdain. He didn’t make the team though he and others that didn’t make the team were comparable to some that made it. The all star team starts with those votes in. Next the need to try to take the best player from teams not represented. That to me is clearly Byron Buxton. I don’t think Jhoan or Ryan were snubbed. That is a weighty word that makes it personal. The author ups the ante by claiming that it is not only a snub but the largest snub. Now it is really personal. Byron’s season has been better and got the honor to represent the Twins. The Twins have done nothing to earn more representation.

Assuming they are sellers I would move any or all of Topa, Coulombe and Stewart. Catcher should be a target both long term and next year. Dinges is a good target. I would also like to see them take a shot at a failed prospect like Campusano in return for one of their expiring contracts.

It is so hard to know their motivations. Did they utilize on of their options on Woods Richardson because they saw something they could fix or did they lose faith in him? Did they send Wallner down last year on options to fix something specific or was it simply his poor hitting? Last year they gave Wallner nearly 300 PAs in AAA to get him right. Is it the same with Julien and Miranda or had they lost faith in his ability to hit. I really have no idea. If they believe in Keirsey as a hitter they need to utilize that option. Right now they are using his speed and glove in most close games and it is helping the team in those close games. It also might be lessening the likelihood he will be a fourth outfielder getting 300+ PAs a year. Perhaps they don’t see that. I hope they send him down and give him a good run in AAA.