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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    In his 37 PAs since May 17 he has an average exit velocity of 94.0, launch angle of 21, hard hit percentage of 52 for an XBA of .278 and real batting average of .118. His K/BB rates are 14/8. In the 33 PAs prior to May 17 he had an average exit velocity of 85.3, launch angle of 10, hard hit percentage of 31 for an xBA of .179 and a real batting average of .161. His K/BB rates were 15/6. In Tampa this week his average exit velocity for his at bats was 100.3 for an xBA of .407. He had no hits. Progress?
  2. jorgenswest
    He played his first full 9 inning game in the field on Tuesday. He played a full game at DH on Wednesday.. They will probably see how he recovers this morning after the two back to back full games. I don’t know if they want to see back to back games in right field before he returns. That might be the next step in the progression or maybe he will return this weekend.
  3. jorgenswest
    Why not be excited? The realistic easy take for most minor leaguers is that they won’t make it. For me it is part of the fun to catch glimpses of their strengths and be optimistic that they might just beat the odds and become a major leaguer. This is the first stretch that Sabato has given us to be optimistic. Go ahead and be excited.
  4. jorgenswest
    Yes. I would imagine followers of other teams have the same worry. Is there a reason the Twins should be more worried? I guess they have been very healthy in the bullpen compared to most so maybe the injuries are coming.
  5. jorgenswest
    Bride isn’t that useful on the bench. He isn’t going to pinch run. His doesn’t have plus defense at a key position. He is the emergency catcher. If he doesn’t help on the bench he needs to have a platoon role to be any help. Should he start against left handed pitching? I would prefer Buxton, Hader, Wallner and Larnach so one of them is DH. Castro isn’t even in that lineup. If Vazquez is catching then Jeffers needs to be DH and I will rest Larnach or Wallner. That leaves him on the bench with Clemens, Castro and Larnach/Vazquez. How does he get in the game? After two catchers are injured? If they need a third catcher then I would go with Gasper. He is the more experienced catcher and probably has a better chance of pinch hitting. I don’t foresee Kiersey in a platoon role either. I can foresee him pinch running and playing outfield late in the game as a defensive replacement.
  6. jorgenswest
    One significant change did impact line up construction in the mid 70s. The DH meant that the number 9 hitter was no longer the pitcher. There was a much better chance the the number 1 and 2 hitters would see a runner on base instead of an extra out. It allowed teams to rethink line up construction. The Harvey’s Wallbangers Brewers in 1982 had the “perfect” number 2 hitter in Charlie Moore and Jim Gantner. They could bunt, put the ball in play and do all of the things of a Ron Gardenhire number 2 hitter. They started the year with Moore batting second but broke tradition by putting major league’s best hitter in that spot in Robin Yount. A manager change from Bob Rodger’s to Harvey Kuehl made permanent that change. Their lead off hitter not only had a high OBP but contributed also contributed power and speed in Paul Molitor. The Brewers put their two batters most likely to get on base in spots 1 and 2. Moore batted eighth and Gantner batted ninth. Baseball is a copycat sport and some teams took notice including two AL champions shortly after the Brewers season. The 1984 Tigers had their two high OBP hitters batting 1 and 2 in Whitaker and Trammell. In 1983 the Tigers most frequent number 2 hitter was Darrell Evans. The 1986 Red Sox started the season leading off with Dwight Evans followed by Wade Boggs. They had three stolen bases between them but their combined OBP was over .400. The did move Boggs to lead off and used Marty Barrett to bat second by the end of the season. Barrett had an OBP of .353 as opposed to Evans .376 and could be viewed as a traditional number 2 hitter (with the addition of a high OBP) but Boggs wasn’t anything like the traditional number 1 with 0 stolen bases. If there ever was a traditional lineup it was broken at least 40 years ago. Maybe the DH helped to break that tradition.
  7. jorgenswest
    He is throwing strikes and keeping his pitch count down recently. He will need a good defense behind him and Buxton, Bader and Correa give him a pretty solid foundation when they are behind him. Seems like a worthwhile back end starter but not a playoff starter. @Doctor Gast trade thought is reasonable. They might try to sell high before an injury or a string of poor outings. This is not the time of year where deals are made though. He needs another good six weeks. I also wonder if he has been taking it up a level with runners in scoring position or once he gets to two outs. He only has 5 strikeouts over his last two starts but three have come with runners in scoring position and another was the third out. None have been to the hitter leading off an inning. Is that even a skill? I think Jack Morris would say it is a skill but I don’t know if there is any evidence of pitchers with that skill other than anecdotal. It certainly helps to keep pitch counts lower.
  8. jorgenswest
    While Adams has come in as a reliever they have given him a routine of a starter. The rain has messed with the schedule but they are using him about every 5th day. He has had a few occasions where he had three days rest but he seems more of a planned piggyback starter than a relief role where he comes to the park unsure if he will pitch that day. He is getting experience coming in mid inning so they might see him on a Sands progression where he shuffles back and forth initially with the opportunity to step up and ascend the bullpen ladder.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins use all of their minor league pitchers that they envision with big league potential in a starter in the minors. Sands, Funderburk, Jax, Duran, Varland and Alcalá were all minor league starters the year prior to their major league debut. So we’re Winder, Headrick, Henriquez and Balazovic.The routine of a starter role in the minor leagues is much more conducive to building innings. It leads to a regular routine to work on pitches in the off days. It isn’t about developing a pitcher into a starter role or relief role as much as it is about developing an arm. It is only as they get close to the majors that they may switch roles like Funderburk did in 2023 before arriving in the majors later that year. That 2023 Twins team had few left handed relief options. Adams is working from the pen for the first time this year though his routine is that of a starter where he has had at least 4 days rest between each appearance. His relief appearances appear scheduled. He is on the 40 and the Twins may envision that he will be needed from the pen this year. Has anyone arrived in the majors as a pitcher that wasn’t predominantly a minor leagues starter? Moran and Stashak might be the best examples. Both joined the organization prior to Falvey in 2015. Jovani Moran came through the system as a reliever. Cody Stashak changed from starting to relief in AA. I think they believe the best way to develop Raya’s ability to pitch is in the routine of a starter role. Until he gets close he may stay in that role even if they envision him in a relief role in the majors.
  10. jorgenswest
    Brady Shoemaker and Ole Sheldon? I guess there have been two more recent Saints also.
  11. jorgenswest
    The only times I have seen Winkel catch is on MiLB.TV so I don’t want to make any definitive statement based on 81 innings. I respect @Seth Stohs knowledge of the organization and his thoughts about Winkel’s catching skill outweigh that one stat over what amounts to 9 games for me. It may be possible that both are true. Camargo has a long track record of success throwing out runners. Enough for me to conclude he is one of the better catchers at throwing out runners in AAA.
  12. jorgenswest
    Runners have been success in 24 of 28 stolen base attempts with Winkel catching in 81 innings. That is a high rate of attempts per 9 innings. Since he has 3 assists one of the caught stealings could be a pick off. Catching is much more than controlling the running game though and he may be very good at the other skills that make up the position.
  13. jorgenswest
    Camargo also is throwing out runners at a 41% clip. There is one catcher that has been arguably better than Camargo at throwing out runners. Hayden Sanger has thrown out 43% of runners in AAA as well as 3 of 5 while he was in the majors. Campusano in the PCL has thrown out 35% of runners. Camargo also stands out when compared to the rest of the catchers on his team. Some teams have good numbers as a whole (30%) but the catchers have pretty similar rates. When Camargo isn’t catching runners the Saints throw out runners at a 10% clip. His ability to throw out runners appears to be a major league level skill. I am not sure how important it is when he doesn’t hit well but stolen bases has been a bigger part of the game the last few years. Seems like that skill alone is worthy of keeping around as the third catcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    Makes sense, they have been very intentional about his routine. He was on starting every 7 days and then moved to 6. Six days from his most recent start in AA lands on an off day.
  15. jorgenswest
    McCusker has a lot of at bats against same sided pitching in the minors (unlike a left handed hitter that comes up). He has done well against them the last two years by OPS. The one rate that might be most telling in his transition to the majors are strike out and walk ratios. RHP: 33%/8% in 499 PAs LHP: 26%/12% in 211 PAs If he is ready to help against left handed pitching in the majors do they keep him in the majors or do they send him back to AAA to continue to work on hitting right handed pitching? They are in a tough division and they need to win games in the majors particularly against division foes. I would expect Rocco to make decisions based on what gives them the best chance to win that division game.
  16. jorgenswest
    @bean5302 Thanks for the link. It is consistent with the Baseball America article. I think their use of him going every 7th day and now every 6th day is focused on that goal: Stay on the mound. It doesn’t close the door on starting. It doesn’t close the door on relieving. A significant injury probably closes the door on both.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins seem to have an intentional plan about Prielipp. I think the plan is to build a healthy arm with a regular routine of work. Baseball America wrote a Prielipp in their recent Twins organizational report. Zoll talked about the regular once a week work and Falvey said they haven’t ruled out the rotation but that internally he profiles as hard throwing lefty reliever. For now the plan seems all about his health and not developing role for him. I did notice that he progressed from pitching every seventh day to every sixth day. He last pitched for Wichita on the 20th. They have an off day the 26th. Perhaps it is nothing more than being on the developmental list to both work on pitches and simulate a game on the 26th to keep on the 6 day schedule. Let’s see if he returns on June 1. The Twins use of Prielipp is similar to the one the Rangers used with Ragans when he returned in 2021. He was throwing in the covid year of 2020 so maybe he began 2021 more built up but he hadn’t pitched in a game since 2017. He was initially used every 7th day in high A. After 10 appearances he moved to AA after a break of 12 days. The Twins appear to be very intentional about their use of Prielipp. It can be argued that they should be developing him as a reliever and use him from the pen or develop him as a starter and lengthen his outings. I think the Twins will view this as a successful season if he comes out of it with a healthy arm. Hopefully this stay on the developmental list is part of the health plan and not a concern about an injury.
  18. jorgenswest
    Should they consider using Paddack to finish the suspended game? He may get the, to the end without need for relief help, I think they can use Woods Richardson as the 27th man for game 2 but they would need to return him as it hasn’t been 15 days. Is Festa ready to pitch again? If the second game gets moved to Wednesday they can still go with SWR or Festa as the 27th man. One benefit is if the Twins only get the suspended game in today and use Paddack he would be available to pitch against the Royals on Sunday.
  19. jorgenswest
    Good point. I went to look at his AAA strike out numbers. In 874 plate appearances it was 17.7%. It was a different context for strikeouts in his era but that is a number that suggests he didn’t have very much swing and miss in AAA. I was hoping for otherwise.
  20. jorgenswest
    For 2024 the trade seems like a loss for the Twins. If the dollars argument is relevant, Polanco’s salary was used to fill three holes (SP, RP, 1B). While Santana was helpful at 1B, they did not look elsewhere to fill the number 4 starter spot. Varland was terrible in the rotation to start the year. Festa was OK. Matthews was bad. Those three combined for 30 starts that didn’t go to DeSclafani. I suppose they could have turned to Varland when Paddack went down and then SWR if Varland matched his 4 bad start from the start of the season, but it is still a bunch of ineffective starts as a result of trading for a pitcher with a huge injury risk to fill that hole. A similar argument can be made for Topa who had one healthy outlier season. They didn’t look elsewhere for that #4 spot in the bullpen. I would argue this trade was a loss in 2024. Hopefully it will be a net plus after a few years.
  21. jorgenswest
    Change takes time. Last year Wallner was sent down in mid April. By the end of May and 167 AAA plate appearances later his triple slash was 180/285/394 in the hitting environment of St. Paul. In the next 5 weeks it was 342/417/726 and he returned. His strikeout rate in the first stretch was 40%. It was a still high but manageable 29% in 132 plate appearances of his last stretch. They used that option to give him 299 AAA plate appearances to get straightened out. I am optimistic that at least one of Julien or Miranda will be able to make the necessary changes with their opportunity in AAA this year.
  22. jorgenswest
    It is one of those jobs when you really only notice the failures. Is there any data to suggest that the Twins are thrown out more at home for the outfield more than the typical team. I guess we would also need data on missed opportunities. Teams that never get caught are probably missing opportunities to score. I don’t disagree that you keep him at third yesterday with no outs on a likely close play. I strongly disagree that he generally looks lost out there.
  23. jorgenswest
    They sent Wallner down 297 plate AAA late appearances last year and he struggled the first 6-7 weeks at that level. Give them a long stretch and I think at least one will contribute to this team.
  24. jorgenswest
    Why not move Keaschall to the 60?
  25. jorgenswest
    Concur. My sentiments every time they bring in Duran to close a game instead of trying to get by and save him for the next game. I wonder how much Fitzgerald on the bench moves the needle. His career AAA numbers with the bat are significantly below Clemons and Bride. I wouldn’t start him ahead of them. He hasn’t primarily been a shortstop in the minors so it seems unlikely he would have a plus or even league average glove there. Does it move the needle enough to put him on the bench and risk not have Correa or Buxton for the Guardians series? The Twins could be dangerously think today with one option on the bench assuming Bader needs more time also. Maybe it is enough of a needle mover to make sure they have coverage in case two go down today.
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