jorgenswest

A few bullpen use notes… The bullpen has faced 28 batters in high leverage situations according to Baseball Reference. 10 Jax 6 Varland 4 Alcala 3 McCaughan and Sands 1 Topa and Coulombe Did I forget anyone? The 8th man in the pen has pitched 10.2 innings. Varland is next from the bullpen at 6. Topa and Sands have 4 each. Duran(3.1), Coulombe(3.1), Alcala(3) and Jax(2.2) each about 3.

My initial thought about needing both relievers meshed with Morneau’s stated reasoning about the order they would be used. I thought it was the correct move at the time. Jax proved me wrong. Doubly so really because I think because Baldelli gave Duran the bottom of the order in the 8th (8-9-1?) and the heart of the order to Jax. I didn’t factor that in at all.

I would have brought up Zebby to be ready to piggy back today and in the rotation moving forward. It meet today’s immediate need and hopefully a long term need. He is rested and ready to go. I don’t care if they find space by DFAing McCaughan or optioning Varland. Either way they move Paddack to the bullpen and see if he can help there. I am not sure he can command four pitches and they need to reduce that down in a relief role. They chose to bring up Blewett. I watched him pitch once on TV this year. He gave up two runs in the 7th inning (it was the last inning of a double header game 1) to send the game to an extra innings and a loss.

My thought was they needed an inning from Jax to get to the end of the game and it didn’t matter which one Jax gave up runs. I was just being honest about my thinking in game in which Morneau’s comments resonated. In hindsight I was wrong but it is hindsight on my part. The part that wasn’t hindsight was the fifth inning. Sands would have warming before the inning and in after three noncompetitive pitches to walk the 8th batter. Even if he wasn’t warming at the beginning of the fifth he certainly should have been ready after they chose to review. I don’t know how Jax does in the 8th. I am pretty sure Sands does a much better job than Paddack in the fifth if he is ready to go after that walk to the number 8 hitter.

The Twins can’t get by with one pitcher to trust late in games. If Jax doesn’t give up the lead in the 9th inning he just gives it up in the 8th inning and the Twins are in the same spot. Many of his blown saves are prior to the 9th inning. They needed an inning from Jax and an inning from Duran yesterday. Of the two Jax was the only one that was rested to be able to pitch multiple innings. Morneau speculated that was the reason for the order yesterday. If something happens to Duran in the 8th, Jax was rested and could finish across two innings. The reverse was not true. Jax failed to have a clean inning and Duran wasn’t going to give them two clean innings. I put that on Jax and not Baldelli though I do believe Baldelli’s use of the pen yesterday contributed to the loss. My issue was in the 5th inning,

In the moment I agreed with Morneau on the broadcast about using Duran in the 8th and Jax in the 9th. If Duran doesn’t have it against the bottom of the order and can’t finish the 8th they can use Jax across the remaining part of the 8th and the 9th. Jax had not pitched the previous day. They would not be able to do the reverse of the that and use Duran to finish the 8th and then the 9th. If Duran is the only one that can be trusted in the 9th then there are going to be many late game failures this year. I don’t fault Rocco here. I do have an argument about his management of Paddack in the fifth inning. I would have had a reliever getting ready to start the inning. Paddack was facing batters 8 and 9. If either gets in scoring position he needs to be ready to pull Paddack before he see the top of the order a third time. If he didn’t have a reliever warming to start the 5th inning he should have had a reliever warming after the first two pitches of the inning. They were not near competitive pitches way above the strike zone. There is no way he intended to throw them that high. The at bat ended witha non competitive pitch in the dirt on a 3-2 count. Was there anyone warming yet? I don’t know but I hope so. The number 9 hitter gets a hit on the first pitch. The pitch was in the low part of the strike zone but cut the plate in half. Too easy to hit. Rocco should have had a reliever in for Altuve. He should have anticipated the need. Altuve hit his first pitch that was the same pitch same spot as the previous hitter. I thought it was good fortune that it was a play that could be challenged. If no reliever was ready yet certainly the additional time of the lengthy review would get them ready. No reliever yet. In hindsight I can see the Jax/Duran decision failed. In the moment it made sense to me. Perhaps I have trust in Jax that I shouldn’t. My thoughts on the 5th inning are not in hindsight. I don’t have trust in Paddack to face the top of a line up with runners on even with a 6 run lead. I would have had Sands in the game to face Altuve after the 8-9 hitters got on. He would been warming up and ready in anticipation of Paddack not getting the 8 and 9 hitters out.

Isn’t the save percentage of set up men? If they enter the game in the 7th or 8th set up men can get a blown save but won’t have an opportunity to record a save. Relievers can get a hold. Did you factor in holds into your calculation? Alternatively I suppose you could remove all blown save prior to the ninth inning to calculate the save percentage as a closer. That might be a pretty small sample to be meaningful though. Maybe the save percentage calculation includes holds. @TwinsDr2021 data seems like it might. There is still a skew though. Closers usually enter in a clean inning. Set up men more often enter with runners on base giving them a greater chance to blow a save.

The skills needed for first baseman isn’t a subset of the skills needed for second base. You need good hands and feet to handle the bad throws or even the throws that get there on a bounce. Second basemen need them for the pivot on a double play but it doesn’t come up as often.

Do you think he has the hands to be an adequate first baseman? I wonder about his hands and his footwork.

It might be worth the year to rebuild his arm strength after his multiple surgeries. The Rangers had Cole Ragans pitching on a very strict schedule when he returned in 2021. They used him every 7th day split evenly between two levels. Rarely did it go to the 6th day or 8th day. He started 2022 the same way in the first half and reached the majors in the second half. I don’t think it is a matter of limiting innings as much as it is regaining a healthy arm. That is likely best done with a very structured schedule that can’t happen as part of a major league bullpen.

I recently read some thoughts about line up construction in the San Diego Union Tribune from Padres’ manager Mike Schildt. He was asked about his line up that alternates 1 through 8. I have wondered before if it helps pitchers stay in rhythm when they face batters from only one side. I haven’t seen data on this but I would like to see how a lefty does against a right handed batter after he has just faced a lefty. Are his numbers against right handed batting consistent with similar batters in an all right handed line up? I suspect that for many pitchers a manager makes the game too easy by sending up a one sided lineup.

Wallner and Larnach both stayed in to face a lefty reliever. In Larnach’s case he faced the lefty and then was replaced for defense in the next half inning by Bader. Next I would like to see one or both start against left handed pitching.

Don’t many teams use that last spot as their long reliever? Sometimes they have a player in that role on options. Sometimes it is a player they are willing to DFA after a long outing. Is Ynoa a pitcher that they should be willing to DFA when they need help in the pen?

In 2013 I started a similar thread about Alex Burnett. Alex arrived in the majors in 2010 at 22 years old. He was in DFA limbo at least three times during the 2013 season pitching in 4 organizations. It was a lost season for him as he pitch only 17.2 innings across 6 teams. He was 25 years old. Young pitchers need to pitch. They need consistent quality instruction. That can’t happen when you are constantly in DFA limbo. He never pitched in the majors again. My suggestions at the time. If a players gets DFA’d they retain a major league salary throughout the year. A player can be DFA’d at most once during the season. The second time they can elect to become a free agent with that major league salary guaranteed. I know Dobnak has his salary guaranteed but a second DFA by the Twins ought to give him the opportunity to join another with the Twins paying the salary.

I just looked at the AL Central and I wouldn’t trade our next two in Lee and Castro for any of the other next two. The Royals would probably move over Garcia and after that it is career minor leaguer Cam Devaney and another player that was rule 5 eligible. The Guardians would probably move over Arias and then it might be Schneeman. In AAA they have players that could have been taken in rule 5. The Tigers have Trey Sweeney and Javier Baez as a very expensive bench piece. They don’t have anything in AAA. The Guardians and Royals would also create a new hole by moving over a starter. It will be scary to replace Correa. It is probably more scary to replace Witt. The Guardians can’t replace Rocchio’s glove. Teams don’t have two good shortstops. Some don’t have one.

Winokur has a chance to reach the majors. Like most prospects it is unlikely. It is always sobering to look at other players drafted in the same slot to realize that very few of these players ever reach the majors. It can feel like a 3rd round draft choice has a good chance. Round 3 seems pretty early in the draft. If you look at all of the players drafted and signed from pick 82 you find one player with a long career as a regular. Kyle Seager was chosen with the 82nd pick. David Weathers is next with 10.9 career WAR over his 19 year career as a reliever. Alex Ochoa is next with 6.4 career WAR over 8 years in mostly a fourth outfielder role. There are 18 more players that reached the majors with career WAR ranging from -1.8 to 3.8. Many had good starts to their careers in the low minors. It is hard to get to the majors without offering some hope in A ball. Too often I offer the sobering and easy take that it is unlikely he will reach the majors. I should more often make a bold take and imagine what he might be if he realizes that talent. Maybe he can have a career like Trevor Plouffe with a couple of pretty good seasons at the prime of his career. Want to dream bigger? How about Michael Cuddyer?

It is an easy take to pick any player with those strikeout rates in low A and cast doubt on whether they will get to the majors. You didn’t take the easy take. You comped him to a guy that was absolute failure in High A. In 2023-24 Cavaco had an OPS of .545 as a 1B. I can make the easy take a cast doubt on whether he will be a regular in the major leagues. I can’t join you in foreseeing an absolute failure to the point that by the middle of next season he will be released having never moved beyond High A.

Absolutely not. He has two options left. As long as he is on the 40 he has a future with the Twins. I agree with the Twins decision to play him everyday in AAA. Julien needs to be in AAA also. There was a similar article about Larnach in November 2023. He had options. His time hadn’t run out. He starts this year batting clean up.

Why does it matter? Both will get chances. The first opportunity will not be based on an overtaking or ranking. It will depend on which pitcher’s schedule fits the Twins need in that moment. A few years ago the Twins had Ober and Varland in AAA with a need for a starter. Varland was chosen over Ober. The decision wasn’t based on an overtaking or ranking. Varland’s pitching schedule matched up with the opening better.

It would be better to have someone with options and upside that they can shuttle to AAA though I do think Dobnak’s ability to throw strikes and give them length isn’t that different from the last pitcher in many bullpens. I am more concerned about Justin Topa and his role in the bullpen.

MLB TV down for me. I am getting errors on Baltimore game also.

This is about the best defense they can put out there. I suppose Vazquez is a better catcher. Keirsey may have more range but Wallner has the arm in right field. I would have had Keirsey over Bader in left field and Julien over Castro to start the game. I am not an advocate of the inexpensive veteran right handed bat free agent that they love to sign every winter. Let’s hope they find the 21-22 France and the 20-21 Bader.

I would have started Keirsey over Bader and Julien over Castro though I acknowledge that Bader and Castro are much better with the glove.

@Cody Pirkl I appreciate your article and this discussion. I particularly appreciate that you took the time to engage in the debate. I find your argument that he has earned an opportunity to start convincing. I hadn’t seen his pitching summary from March 20. I also agree that he will need to earn it. The discussion left me wondering what his 17 starts looked like last year individually. Did he earn that opportunity last year? How many starts was he a burden? How many starts did he look like a top starter? In 2024 the Twins were 11-6 in his 17 starts. He gave up 50 runs (earned and unearned) in those starts. More than half of those runs came in his 4 worst starts where he gave up 5 or more runs in each. Even in those starts in two of them he pitched at least 5 innings so it wasn’t a drag on the bullpen. They were 1-3 in those 5 starts. He also had four starts with a game score of 67 or better. They were 3-1 in those starts. The loss was after he had pitched 8 innings while giving up 2 runs to the Guardians only to have Duran give up a three run walk off home run to Brennan in the bottom of the 9th. There were two starts where he was removed before the 5th inning. One was his first start where they pulled him after 4 innings and 2 runs. The other was one of the bad starts. I don’t think he was a significant burden on the bullpen.

It strikes me that 71 pitchers should mostly be #1 and #2 starters. There must be 60 of them. I am not sure that group gives a picture of what should be expected from a number 5 starter. Would the picture be different if instead you selected the top 150 pitchers selected by games started and then sorted by ERA? If you want to just look at a number 5 on competitive teams I suppose you could take the teams with the top 15 records and then select 75 pitchers based on starts from that group and sort by ERA. It is possible that a number X starter isn’t well defined but let’s no do a tedious back and forth and then eventually realize that we have different definition of a number 1 or number 2 starter. For me if you are in the top 30 starters you are a number 1 starter. I don’t start filling the number 5 spots until I have some way of clearing out the first 120. You are welcome to let me know the flaws in that thinking but let’s not go back and forth.