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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    You had to wonder why their interest was leaked so early in the process. I don’t see how the leak would benefit the Pohlads. It doesn’t benefit the Ishbia group unless they want to put leverage on the White Sox.
  2. jorgenswest
    I have learned to check for myself. Bader’s wRC+ L/R 2024: 70/93 2023: 151/35 2022: 66/89 2021: 101/110 Source: Fangraphs
  3. jorgenswest
    Miranda’s OOA last year at 1B was 0 in 100 innings. For his career it is -4 in 698 innings. Even assuming that he has not improved over the career number, how much should we worry about an out every 19-20 games? He will need to make it up with the bat. It will be his bat that determines the playing time. Julien did drop last year in OOA. It could be the shift. He had a -4 in 622 innings. His bat in 2023 would easily make up the difference. It will be his bat that determines his playing time. Lewis had a positive OOA. He makes some bad throws but must make up for it with range. It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.
  4. jorgenswest
    It is really hard to hit major league pitching. The typical AAA pitcher is much closer to the typical AA pitcher than a major league pitcher. The jump is huge. For most players it takes time with a mix of success and an abundance of failure. The depth of those failures will be new for many players and they will need to learn how to respond to it. I don’t know if Lee will be a successful regular in the major leagues. He may need to utilize his three options to get there. Let’s get to that third option and lots more major league PAs before we see this as make or break. I am hoping for a make this year but if much is spent in AAA I won’t call it a break.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would not assume that the path to the majors is any quicker from the bullpen. It wasn’t in Ragans case. If he were having success as a lefty in the bullpen in 2023 there would have been no need to trade for Chapman. I would have the goal of a healthy year. Maximizing those healthy innings will be give the best hope that he will be helpful to this organization down the road. I think the best way to accomplish that is the regular work of a starter in the minors gradually increasing the number of pitches. Once he puts a healthy season in the books they can plan for how he best fits in the majors.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins? It will be a long wait. Ragans second surgery was March of 2018. It was the second half of 2023 before he was effective again. Prielipp had surgery on July 18, 2023. If he needs Ragans path, it is unlikely the Twins can wait that long.
  7. jorgenswest
    That won’t be good enough. Even though the value of 1 to 2 WAR exceeds his contract it will not help this team win games especially if it comes with a full season of health. Lots of playing time and 1-2 WAR from your first baseman will be a result of a batting line that isn’t close to good enough. He needs to approach Santana’s worth to help this team contend. Fangraphs had Santans’s worth at almost 25 million. France’s 21-22 numbers approach that level. Anything short of that and they need to move on. Quickly.
  8. jorgenswest
    There will be injuries and opportunities. The only thing that will stop Miranda or Julien or Larnach from taking the next step and thriving is their own mediocre play. The frustrating part about signing guys like France is the patience the Twins seem to have with mediocre play from veterans where it feels like there is little hope they will move beyond mediocre.
  9. jorgenswest
    I had to wonder about his splits. He was better at home than on the road last year. His wRC+ was 103 on the road which is very close to his career wRC+ on the road of 105. I would stick with Miranda and Julien. A wRC+ of 105 for a DH/1B is closer to DFA level than worthy of giving up assets.
  10. jorgenswest
    Intriguing. MLB has a formula for competitive balance picks. I can’t argue one or an another if it effective at finding the teams that need that competitive balance. Assuming it is a good measure… Let’s move those picks to the start of the draft. Let’s make them conditional based on spending enough vs revenue in order to earn those picks. Let’s determine the order by record of those teams and reward the team with the best record with the first pick. I can see several possible results that would be beneficial to me. Reward smaller market teams for their efforts to compete Competitive balance picks can be traded now but imagine the value if they are at the top of the draft Would there be fewer sellers at the deadline if teams are fighting for wins and better draft position? Fewer sellers will for the rich teams to pay up more for their trade deadline acquisitions I am with Mike in his earlier comment also. It isn’t World Series or bust for me. I want to watch a season full of competitive baseball games. This will help.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is it a given that his defense in center field is well worth a bench spot? I don’t know what that is based on. It must not be the on the eyes of the Twins staff that sees him every day. They have had a need and not turned to him. It certainly isn’t based in the limited data we have from his play in the minors. That data does not look like a player with good range. I would like to be more confident in his glove but other than anecdotal reports I don’t know what to go on. Is the entire Twins staff so inept that they can’t see an above average major league defender in CF? Has he had a string of several years in the minors where he consistently had fewer opportunities in centerfield than his teammates leading to a lackluster RF/9? Austin Martin had minor league RF/9 numbers of 3.13 in 2023 and 3.24 in 2024. With the same teams Keirsey was 2.46 and 2.68. His best is 2.76. Maybe balls just don’t get hit his way when he is out there. Help me with some data that points to a defense well worth a bench spot. I want it to be there. I don’t want the Twins continuing this cycle of decline phase stop gap free agents. With Emmanuel Rodriguez close, I would have gone with Keirsey/Martin/Castro with no expectation that any can play average major league level defense in CF.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am not confident of either. Keirsey’s wRC+ in the minors is not a match for “good potential offensively”. It might if he were in AAA and 23. You could hope for a big step up. I don’t see it in the glove either. @bean5302 has done the work on this but his range factor numbers are very uninspiring. One or two mediocre seasons might be bad luck but it is throughout his minor leagues. Take a look at AAA the last two years. Austin Martin is getting to significantly more chances than Keirsey. I also didn’t get that impression watching some AAA games on TV. Balls that I thought could be outs were landing in front or to the side. Neither is a good measure or evidence that he is a liability but I don’t think “very dependable” is a fit either. It was clear last year that Martin was not a passable center fielder yet. Keirsey is likely better but the bar for average major league center fielder is very high. Keirsey might be mediocre in that group. Bader is among the best. I think the question is whether that defense is worth devoting a bench spot to a veteran with that one plus skill or go with Martin/Keirsey hoping to get good enough play in CF and a comparable or better bat while spending the resources elsewhere,
  13. jorgenswest
    Urias doesn’t have options. He has hit below .200 the last two seasons. He also appears to have a passable but borderline glove to play SS. He probably needs to be a better defender at SS to get a major league contract in a utility role. He probably needs to show a better bat to get a major league contract as a starting 2B or 3B. His best option is to look for a minor league deal with a team that has infielders with an injury history in front of him. The Twins fit that description. I would rather add him on a minor league deal than a veteran back up SS in the decline phase of their career on a major league contract. No to Paul DeJong type. Yes to a minor league deal to 28 year old with some major league success
  14. jorgenswest
    The four players who earned the extra picked all were elite prospects. Two of them peaked at #1 and the other two at #2. Jenkins is near that territory. The other two are not. I think Rodriguez can help this team this year. He should be in strong consideration for a starting outfield job. I think he can combine good defense with a wRC+ over 100 as a result of walks and power combined with a mediocre batting average. That won’t win a rookie of the year crown but will help the Twins win games. Would there be incentive for the Twins not to promote him at all hoping that another year of development will help earn the extra pick in 2026? I wouldn’t think so but the incentive can work both ways.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe the splits show inconsistency or necessarily suggest an improved skill level. I think the right handed side is simply the result of the small sample any player would have against a left handed pitcher. It takes a very large number of plate appearances for slash stats to stabilize. If I only had the BR stat lines to judge improvement of skill level in splits, I think I would track the strike out rate and walk rates over time. They stabilize much quicker. If the strikeout rates showed significant improvement I would be hopeful.
  16. jorgenswest
    The strikeout and walk rates in the low minors can be deceptive. Some pitchers have stuff so good that the over challenged batters make so little contact and every count goes deep. That lack of contact and deep counts leads to an increase in walks (and strikeouts) as opposed to weak contact outs. I would be more concerned about a pitcher that relies and weak contact outs with lower strike out and walk rates up to AA. I think that weak contact will progress to solid contact too often as they move up the ladder. The Twins would have much better data to analyze whether the walks are a result of poor command or deep counts. With the data I can see I would prefer the high strikeout and walk pitcher in the lower minors to the high contact low walk rate pitcher.
  17. jorgenswest
    Experience leads to instinct. It is possible he will become a passable centerfielder. His bat is his ticket though. He needs to get on base at a high rate to have a career. How much should we get worked up about an OAA of -4 across 33 starts in centerfield? Is that about one out every 8 games? Certainly the Twins have bigger problems than that to fix. If he can get on base it seems like he should be able to make up for that in a bench role even if the improvement with experience doesn’t get him to the positive side of the ledger.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they are poor at evaluating defensive skill. I think they prioritize batting as they drafted players like Julien, Keaschall, Steer and Schobel. They all moved infield positions in college. If any of them had the defensive skill to play exclusively at SS in college and stay their through the minors they would have been drafted earlier. In Julien’s case he moved from 2B to 3B. The Twins had to know that they were going to be questionable to stay up the middle. College shortstops don’t often stick at shortstop but particularly if they played significant time at other positions. Similarly if they end as college 2Bs they often move to a corner by the time they get to the majors. The days of the good glove/weak bat middle infielder is gone. A good bat is critical. I do wonder if Keaschall’s bat appears ready before his glove as was Julien’s case two years ago, should they bring him up? Should they have patience to let his glove develop at 2B or CF in AAA?
  19. jorgenswest
    The Orioles’ trade for Burnes happened right after the proposed sale was announced though the sale wasn’t approved and finalized until about two months later. The Twins have been quiet this winter as the sale process has moved forward. A sign that a deal is imminent might be a trade for someone like Cease.
  20. jorgenswest
    The data I have is such a small sample to make comparisons. It would be small after just one full season but his was cut shorter than that. I value the eyes of the skilled scouts much more at this age and limited play. Of everyone in the minor leagues he was number 3 (actually number 2 since Sasaki was not a minor leaguer). That is really significant.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am excited about Jenkins. A prospect at number 3 overall is very meaningful. It is great to have Rodriguez at 37 though a player at 37 is probably closer in talent level to the #100 prospect than the #10 prospect. Once it gets beyond the top 40 or 50 there may not be much separating those guys from the top 250. The Tigers have 5 and 6. I would trade our prospect pool for their prospect pool. I don’t think I would do that with any other team in the AL Central.
  22. jorgenswest
    The return would be Cease and a comp pick. I think the most valuable piece listed is Keaschall. I would be willing to deal Keaschall plus an arm for a year of Cease and a comp pick. I think that deal would be most comparable to the deal for Burnes and competitive enough to get the ears of the Padres as they listen to the interest from other teams.
  23. jorgenswest
    I see some parallels to Spencer Steer. They can run the bases, have a little power, possibly stretched in the middle of the field, put up 138/143 wRC+ in AA and college infielders. Will he stay in the middle of the field or eventually be a 1B/LF? Is there enough power potential to be a plus bat on a corner? I have enough wonders to think this might be the sell high point. A middle of the field prospect has more value than a corner player. At one point Jose Miranda was tearing up AA/AAA playing 2B/3B with a wRC+ of 158. Now we wonder if he has a plus bat as a 1B. Spencer Steer played 1B/LF with an OPS+ of 96 last year. I would sell high if he brought an impact starter to the Twins.
  24. jorgenswest
    No one knows what the Twins will do with payroll. Last year the proposed sale of the Orioles was announced in January 30. They made the deal for Corbin Burnes on February 1. The sale wasn’t approved until the end of March but I have to believe that deal was the new ownerships interest. Burnes is a good comp. Someone is going to offer a similar package for Cease. It is going to hurt to get Cease, I would pay the price.
  25. jorgenswest
    Corbin Burnes was traded for shortstop Joey Ortiz and LHP D.L. Hall, as well as the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Hall was 25 and maybe lost a little of his prospect status. Ortiz also made appearance in the bottom half of the top 100 prospects. Burnes was coming off a season of 3.5 rWAR (3 year of 13.1) and Cease is coming off a season of 4.2 WAR (3 year of 13.0). I think a Cease deal would approach the Burnes deal. That is a lot to give up. I get the arguments about the offense isn’t contender caliber. I would go for it anyway and trade Keaschall with a pitcher. Hall did drop in status and looked more like a reliever at the time of the trade. I would start by offering Keaschall and Varland. They will probably get a better offer so it might take a better pitcher or third player. I would consider doing either. As for the salary arguments I don’t think a deal for Cease and the increase in payroll would drop the franchise value. It might even make a potential owner more interested. The Pohlad’s could be committing someone else’s money at this point. A deal like this might be a sign that the Pohlad’s don’t expect to own the Twins too much longer.
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