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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The comment about ugly got to me. I should probably have just ignored it. I just these guys work their tails off for a chance. Someone could probably get on Keirsey also for not being aggressive on those balls to centerfield but it is an 8-0 lead. Better to play deep and keep the ball in front of him. There are times for aggression on defense and times when a pitcher needs to miss bats. This wasn’t that time.
  2. jorgenswest
    Did you watch the game? Winder did give up 4 hits. All were weak (below 80 mph) that landed in front of the outfielders. Maybe an average major league center fielder or left fielder gets to one or two of those. To me an ugly performance is when hitters are barreling up hitting several balls hard or when a pitcher can’t find the strike zone. If you come in with an 8-0 lead, throw strikes and avoid hard contact you did your job.
  3. jorgenswest
    If he continues to put up wRC+ over 130 in the minors he will get a chance. The Twins signed him from independent and have moved him aggressively.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how to quantify whether a player is a true centerfielder. Cave was primarily a centerfielder in the minors. In his 5 seasons as a Twin he had an OOA of +3 as a CF.
  5. jorgenswest
    Why would they lose Eeles?
  6. jorgenswest
    Is there really a need to equate a human to trash? It looks to me like Michael Tonkin has worked incredibly hard to get back to the majors. His family has moved all over the place including overseas in his effort. He has had reasonable success over the last two years since returning to the majors and really deserves better from us.
  7. jorgenswest
    First base gets its place at the end of the defensive spectrum but not everybody can play it. The pool of players is larger because left handed throwers can play there unlike the other infield positions and catcher. It doesn’t need the athleticism of other positions but it does require good hands and some good footwork. Is that a fit for Julien? I wonder about his hands. I do know he would work his tail off to get better there. Wallner has not played an inning of first base in the minors or in college or even in college summer leagues. It seems like if that were at all in his skill set he would have seen at least some time there. I did notice that he played center field more often than left or right in college. Margot and Martin have set the bar pretty low for centerfield play. I might give him a shot there particularly at the end of a game after he and Larnach have pinch hit so they can both stay in the game. Miranda is probably a fit. I think outfield is the spot where Lewis can best take advantage of his athletic skills. I wondered about Larnach too. He played just 1 game at first base in a 2017 college summer league. Since he has only played corner outfield I would guess that he isn’t a fit for 1B or someone by now would have played him there.
  8. jorgenswest
    Santana was a success. What about DeSclafani, Topa, Okert, Farmer, Margot, Thielbar and Staumont? They counted on several of these guys to fill the a role on this team. Should they use the same strategy next year and add/retain several inexpensive aging veterans in hopes that one gives them league average play in his role?
  9. jorgenswest
    Eric Longenhagen in his top 43 Twin prospects has him in the others in a group of 27th man types. He describes Keirsey as a “he can play a good enough center field”. An earlier scouting report from Fangraphs gave him a 45 score as an outfielder (50 is major league average). I am not sure if the 45 is outfielders overall or as a center fielder. He is probably below average when compared to the high bar major leaguer center fielders set but that is likely better than Martin or Margot. His bat might not be as strong as their bats. I suspect if he was an above average defensive centerfielder someone would have taken him when he was available in the rule 5 draft last winter.
  10. jorgenswest
    Maybe he should have more confidence in Richards, Theilbar or Okert. suppose he starts warming up one of them after the third batter. Are they ready for batter 6? Probably not. It was 5 pitches to batters 4 and 5. The next batter struck out. Should he take him out after the 6th batter strikes out? In hindsight yes. I am not sure I would have trusted Richards, Okert or Thielbar to have better success against the right handed Jung especially after the strike out.
  11. jorgenswest
    Concur. AAA was the best starting spot for Miranda and Larnach this year. Worked out well.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins were correct to hold onto Larnach and Miranda though they could have sold low on them. I don’t think I would sell low on Kirilloff. They did sell low on Gordon and correctly assessed that he wasn’t going to return to 2022 form. Even that decision gave little value as selling low did not return much help in Okert. I would keep him and hope on his upside until it is time to DFA him.
  13. jorgenswest
    Concur and further evidence that there are no low leverage jobs in the bullpen.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is the biggest challenge and they will figure it out. The ideal, for me, is an ABS and not a challenge system. The ABS can happen in the flow of the game without breaks for challenge or limit on number of challenges. The AAA trial just shows it isn’t ready. Significant inconsistencies had them tweek it last year and back off the ABS this year switching to the challenge system mid season. They don’t back off if it was at all passable right now.
  15. jorgenswest
    The same strike zone for every hitter?
  16. jorgenswest
    Huh? What does all that have to do with how smoothly the game moves along? So far the tech has not worked in AAA despite in season tweaks. They have now taken a step back from the automated strike zone in AAA mid season. I do think the tech will get there but the challenges of a 3D strike zone that changes with every batter are far different from the fixed 2D plane of a tennis court. It isn’t ready yet.
  17. jorgenswest
    Isn’t the game moving along smoothly now? It seems like adding tech can only cause the game to move along less smoothly.
  18. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the work @bean5302 I would just add that the bar for an average major league center fielder is much higher than an average AAA centerfielder. I would think very few on your list would be an above average or even average defender in centerfield when compared against the major leaguers. I think we should expect Keirsey to be a somewhat below average major league centerfielder but probably better than Martin based on his experience. He probably is similar with the glove to Cal Stevenson who is up with the Phillies. Cal in his limited 213 innings over his three cups of coffee has fielding metrics that suggest he is close to average. Cal has the better bat.
  19. jorgenswest
    That shouldn’t keep them from DFAing someone and calling on Keirsey if he would be an above average major league center fielder at the major league level. That he hasn’t been called on leads me to think he probably isn’t at that level. His Fangraphs field and arm scout scores of 45 show him to be below the major league average of 50. Those scores are for a OF and the bar for center field is probably higher. They may also be out of date.
  20. jorgenswest
    How are you sure that it was the umpire that got those calls wrong? Is everything that is captured in the 2D zone the correct call?
  21. jorgenswest
    He was in the minor leagues at the time of the injury. Someone will state this better but I don’t think he can be put on a major league 60 day IL from the minors. The Twins may have been able to call him up at the time and then put him on major league IL eventually moving him to the 60. That would have had service time implications that they would want to protect in order to maximize the time they have him under their control. It would also have taken great foresight that the injury would be a 60 day injury. In any case I am not sure that it would have been allowable to put him on the major league roster in order to put him on the 60 day IL. Assuming it would have been allowable, it still doesn’t seem a wise use of his service time.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Twins pitching is improved since the last two years. They are throwing strikes more often. Have there be fewer opportunities to steal a strike and more opportunities to lose a strike? Would that shift in opportunities skew the framing numbers in a negative direction? I have no idea. Bottom line is the Twins lead the AL in strikeouts this year and did last year. They ranked 10th and 12th in the two previous seasons. Jeffers has contributed to that improvement.
  23. jorgenswest
    If they had already signed Hill would they have brought up Matthews?
  24. jorgenswest
    What is the fascination with the word pipeline among writers and bloggers? I don’t think Falvey ever said it but somehow it is “Falvey’s Pipeline”. The problem with pipeline is there is no definition and hence a bar that can never be achieved. He did say in his opening press conference … and I think he has been true to those ideals. The pipeline seems to be a creation of podcasters or maybe TD itself. It is important to build a pitching staff with a foundation of controllable assets. Pitching in free agency is so expensive and lower tier free agents are too often unsuccessful. A foundation is best built by developing through the minors and acquiring pitchers in trade with multiple years of control. I think that has been a success. They did have a need for one more starter this year. Filling that spot with DeSclafani was a predictable failure. On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.
  25. jorgenswest
    My fear is they will believe he is a solution to their bullpen ignoring the unlikelihood that any player at 34 will repeat their performance in their only good season. My fear is they will do because his salary will not be prohibitive.
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