jorgenswest

The fastest path to the majors is in relief. It might not be the best path for his health. I wonder if starting once a week is a better route towards a healthy arm. @Matthew Lenz compared his path to Cole Ragans. Ragans hadn’t pitched in a game since 2017 when he took the mound in 2021 after two surgeries. The Rangers pitched him once a week staying almost perfectly to a 7 day schedule. He started 10 games and moved up a level and then started 9 more games. He finished healthy and made his major league debut in 2022

I started to respond about Bader and line up implications but realized that it will probably send this off the topic of Bader. I pasted my fear of the all right handed line up that Bader in RF foreshadows in a separate article.

The article of Harrison Bader in right field foreshadowed for me a line up against left handed pitching that will be entirely right handed. That might make sense if you look at the numbers in any individual pairing. It might make sense if games are simulated in a computer. I don’t think it makes sense in the play of the game. I recently read some thoughts about line up construction in the San Diego Union Tribune from Padres’ manager Mike Schildt. He was asked about his line up that alternates 1 through 8. I have wondered before if it helps pitchers stay in rhythm when they face batters from only one side. I haven’t seen data on this but I would like to see how a lefty does against a right handed batter after he has just faced a lefty. Are his numbers against right handed batting consistent with similar batters in an all right handed line up? I suspect that for many pitchers a manager makes the game too easy by sending up a one sided lineup. I would like to see Wallner or Larnach or both in those lineups. They might be the only two lefties the Twins have on the opening day roster. Podcasters and bloggers have beat the drum for right handed batting over the years but it sure seems that have a shortage of left handed bats right now. Let’s hope Julien will return to 2023 form or Keirsey is a better hitter than his minor league wRC+ suggests or Rodriguez and/or Eeles dominate AAA early and join the Twins in the first half. Until then let’s at least see Larnach or Wallner in the lineup. While we’re at it let’s also keep them in the game when they face that lefty reliever before the 8th inning. Someone is probably going to argue that Wallner has a career OPS against lefties of .510 or Larnach has a career OPS against lefties of .570. Bader and Castro are well over 100 points better for their career. On paper I can’t win this argument. I can’t win it in a computer simulation. The batter I wonder about is not Wallner or Bader. It is the next guy. Does Jeffers get a better pitch to hit from that lefty when he is following Wallner? Is that pitcher a little off balance and more prone to a mistake? I will finish by adding one puzzling split about Jeffers. For his career Jeffers has an OPS against lefties that is 137 points better than his OPS against righties. How is it possible that his OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher is 90 points better than when a game is started by a lefty?

Any reliever with options on the 40 will get an opportunity on the AAA shuttle. Jax was that guy. Sands was that guy. They seized the opportunity. Funderburk will have a chance to do the same.

Should they trade from their depth? No. The return won’t be significant. Do they bet on their depth and trade from the top 3? My answer is no but the return value would be high.

We can’t change the past. Moving forward, do you trade Vazquez this spring if there is an opportunity?

There is a fair chance we will get to the end of April and Vazquez will be hitting as he has the previous two seasons while either Camargo or Cartaya are hitting well in AAA. At that point there will be lots of noise for a change but that will be based on hindsight. I am wondering if there is anyone with the foresight to say let’s go with the young catchers. The argument might be at least one of the two will be a passable replacement for Vazquez and we will have better insight into the Twins catching needs for 2026. I think I would move Vazquez if the Mets will take on his contract and go with Camargo. That would also give Cartaya 4 games a week in AAA to give him a chance to approach that upside he once showed.

As author of the thread my main idea was to see if anyone was willing to go with Camargo and Cartaya to free up some money by moving Vazquez. So far the answer is no. A catcher for the future thread would likely have more interest but it wasn’t my intent. So… Anyone in support of Camargo getting his opportunity as a number 2 catcher? Is his defense good enough to fill that role?

I don’t believe the Astros have a fourth catcher. Janek is a few years away. It would be really foolish on their part to trade their third catcher without significant return. There is no a chance I would do that deal if I were the Astros. Why would they make their catching situation worse (you open with Camargo is not ready) and take on the Paddack money? If Salazar is available it sounds like the Mets should be calling the Astros instead of the Twins. … but this only distracts from the topic. A different thread about longer term options at catcher would be a better fit. I appreciate your thoughts that Cartaya and Camargo are not MLB ready yet. So far no one is ready to hand the job to Cartaya or Camargo and let Vazquez go.

In this case would the Twins DFA Castellano and then assuming he passes through waivers the Phillies can reclaim him outside of their 40? At that point he is their property again and they could trade him to the Twins.

Thanks. So waivers happens before a trade?

Castellano had more value to the Phillies before he was selected in rule 5. At that point he did not need a 40 man roster spot. Contending teams need to devote the majority of those spots to players they assess can help the team this year. If the Twins return Castellano to the Phillies, would the Phillies would need to give him a 40 man spot? If that is the case it may lower his value to them. A return of a player that has a few years before they need to be put on the 40 even if they are ranked a tier lower than Castellano may be sufficient.

The Mets lost their primary catcher Alvarez for up to 2 months. They have one other catcher on the 40 in Luis Torrens. I don’t think the contract will have them shying away from Christian Vazquez. The return wouldn’t be much more than salary relief which might not be put back into the roster. Should the Twins trust Camargo or Cartaya enough to offer Vazquez to the Mets?

I hope you are right. Range factor needs a pretty large sample of multiple seasons but his have been consistently mediocre. It honestly could be chance. Maybe balls aren’t hit as often to centerfield when he is playing as opposed to the other center fielders on the team. Would Cal Stevenson and Andrew Stevenson be fair comparisons? Both are center fielders that lead off and have similar skill profiles. He didn’t get a 20-80 update on Fangraphs last year and didn’t make the top 43 Twins prospects but he didn’t get mention in the midseason 2024 update I can’t find where he has been anything other than “other players of note” in the Twins system beyond his appearance at #38 prior to the 2019 season. My search did not find every update but did find the recent one from mid season 24. I am not cherry picking here and would love to see scouting reports that are more encouraging.

I think they made the right move by signing a veteran. They chose Bader. Keirsey is on the 40 and will get an opportunity this year. He will need to produce better than his minor league wRC+ numbers and range factor numbers suggest. The few times I have seen him play on TV my unskilled eyes tell me he is a major leaguer.

I don’t know if Paddack is healthy or the ceiling of the healthy Paddack. I do see that his velocity this spring seems to be in line with the velocity over his career including his healthy 2019 season. I wouldn’t lock him into the rotation but I would trust the evaluation of the staff if they choose to start with him in the rotation. Last year Varland was removed after 4 ineffective starts. A similar four starts from Paddack and they need to look for another option. This is their last year of control. He needs to perform.

It really changes the meaning of what I wrote when you omit. “Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back.” Without it you make it sound like I know that he will not be effective. I haven’t seen him pitch. I don’t have the skill to use the data available to me to make a determination of readiness. We have just wasted a whole bunch of time if the argument is about whether he is ready because I have no business being part of that argument. I have no idea. For fear of wasting more time… The Twins will need to make multiple moves with the bullpen over the course of the season. Last April 13 the Twins sent optioned Alcala after 6 outings (3 of them 2 innings) while giving up 0 earned runs. It was at least the second time in the young season the Twins needed to make a bullpen move. I do not support a move where they option out an effective reliever while retaining a clearly less effective pitcher that can’t be optioned.

My position copied from the start of the discussion Rigid. I suppose. “Can’t devote a spot” is definitely rigid. We apparently disagree but I always appreciate the debate.

Low leverage specialists shouldn’t be a role on a team like a left handed specialist or a shortstop. I think it is very difficult for a player without options to be hidden from significant use in medium and high leverage games. I looked at the 6 division winners and looked for their reliever with the most low leverage batters faced. I wondered how many games they saw in medium or high leverage. I will report them separately since it is possible that they saw both leverages in the same game. Competing teams need flexibility in the bullpen. Teams need to be willing to lose that 8th pitcher by DFA (Tonkin, Avila, Scott, Ruiz, Brewers) or put him on the option shuttle (Grove). That brings me back to my statement that a low leverage relief role doesn’t exist. The last spot in the bullpen of a competing team needs the flexibility that Castellano can’t provide. If he is effective he will be the 6th or 7th man in the pen. If he is not effective the Twins must return him to the Phillies. They can’t use a bullpen spot to develop a pitcher that isn’t ready for the major leagues. He needs to be ready now.

The Twins were a 63 win team on the way to a 69 win season. I don’t think they make the same roster decision if they felt they had a good shot at winning the division. I still don’t believe a competing team can devote a spot on the 26 to an ineffective reliever they can’t option. If Castellano can put up a lot of innings with an ERA of 3.81 or 4.25 I am fine with the Twins rostering him. I am curious why FIP is better here than xFIP. Do you always use FIP?

If the plan is to exclusively use Castellano in low leverage they should return him now. There are no low leverage roles for a competing team. There really aren’t long reliever roles either unless that player has an option so that they can be sent to AAA after an outing that will make them unavailable the next 2-3 games. Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back. A competing team can’t devote a spot on the 26 to a player not ready to compete at the major league level.

Encouraged by Gasper but not sure what that has to do with my comment about approach. I am still paying attention to his approach. Today there was one called strike in 4 plate appearances.

He blew two saves last year. Both games were extra innings. He pitched 3.1 innings giving up 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk and 0 earned runs. In one game a passed ball moved the ghost runner from second to third before they scored. In the other game the ghost runner scored. He earned a win in one of the games and a loss in the other. Across his 5 save opportunities, he pitched 9 innings and gave up 1 earned run with up 6 hits, 7 strikeouts and 3 walks. I don’t know if Tonkin is the best option for the back of the bullpen. I just felt a strong need to put a context to that 40% number in support of a man who works so hard to play and stay in the majors. I add this comment hoping it doesn’t derail the discussion. A reliever coming in the game in extra innings with a runner starting on second should not be saddled with a loss. Had it been earlier in the game and that runner on second was inherited with 0 outs the loss would go to the pitcher that put him on second.

Camargo and Cartaya are on a different part of their age path but both were signed by the Dodgers as international free agents at 16. The path to useful catcher in the major leagues is often a long one and the rule 5/option clocks can run out on teams. Let’s hope the Twins can benefit from that clock running out on the Dodgers. Cartaya needs a long stretch if not a full season of AAA in development. Camargo is ready to help right now and is probably at least the median third catcher. The Twins are wise to devote a 40 man spot to Cartaya to see if he can approach that ceiling projected when he was a 20 year old succeeding in High A. His .354 OBP as a 22 year old catcher in AA gives me some hope. I am glad both are Twins.

Didn’t the Twins right handed batters have a much better SLG and OPS than their left handed batters last year?