jorgenswest

I couldn’t watch Julien with a 1-2 count last year. Today he went after a 1-2 pitch on the high outside corner of the strike zone. It is progress even if he fouls it off down the third base line. For now he has earned that spot at the top of the order. If he was worried about losing his spot to Brooks Lee he responded perfectly. Other need to follow suit.

I don’t disagree. However, I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. I was simply curious if changing managers in the first 10% or so of the season has successfully turned around a season. You are right about wondering who they would call in? It should be its own thread and right now I haven’t done the work to make a list of who might be available.

I appreciate the addition. Maybe I should have expanded towards 40 games. Left them off because they were 16-22 at the time of the firing. After 30 games the Marlins were 15-15. I was looking for a team that fired their manager early in the season. I was looking for hope that this season could be turned around by replacing the manager. So far I didn’t find it. I think a new thread is warranted though. What elite managers are available to replace him? Is there a Jack McKeon out there to take over?

Can a team turn it around by firing a manager early in the season? Can the Twins? I was curious to look at teams that fired their manager early in the season and how they responded. My source was an article from mlb.com in 2018. 2002 Tigers started 0-6 and fired Phil Garner replacing him with Luis Pujols. They finished the season 55-106. Pujols was not retained as manager the next season 1988 Orioles started 0-6 and fired Cal Ripken Sr replacing him with Frank Robinson. They finished 54-107 after starting 0-21. Robinson led them to an 87-75 record in 1989. 1972 Padres started 4-7 and fired Preston Gomez replacing him with Don Zimmer. They finished 58-95. Zimmer led them to a 60-102 record in 1973 1991 Phillies started 4-9 and fired Nick Leyva replacing him with Jim Fregosi. They finished 78-84. Fregosi led them to a 70-92 season in 1992 and a World Series appearance in 1993. 2001 Rays started 4-10 and fired Larry Rothschild replacing him with Hal McRae. They finished 62-100. McRae led them to a 55-106 record in 2002. 1982 Yankees started 6-8 and fired Bob Lemon the manager that led them to a title in 1981. He was replaced by Gene Michael who was later replaced by Clyde King. The Yankees finished 79-83. King was not retained as manager in 1983 2018 Reds started 3-15 and fired Bryan Price replacing him with Jim Riggleman, They finished 67-95. Riggleman was not retained as manager in 2019. I was hoping to find a team that turned things around with so much season left to play but all teams finished with losing records. Now I wonder if a team can get off to a bad start like the Twins and finish with a winning record having retained their manager. Addition… There are at least a few teams that started similarly to the Twins and finished successfully after retaining their manager. 2002 Athletics started 4-11. They stuck with Art Howe and finished 102-60 1914 Braves started 3-12 (also 4-18). They stuck with George Stallings and finished 95-59-5 winning the World Series. This is probably the most famous of the turn around teams. It isn’t a parallel fit to the top set since I didn’t have a list of manager changes prior to the expansion era. 2021 Braves started 6-9. They stuck with Brian Snitker and finished 88-73 winning the World Series 1991 Twins started 5-10. They stuck with Tom Kelly finishing 95-67 and won the World Series.

The Friday starter will also start Wednesday. Pushing Paddack back to Saturday gives them the opportunity to skip his next start in the rotation with both a Thursday and Monday off. The next time he would be needed is April 26. By then Pablo is eligible to come back. I am not suggesting this is what the Twins are doing. It is what I would do if they bring up Festa. If Paddack fails again Saturday I would send him to the bullpen and hope Lopez is ready on the 26th. I would also support pitching Matthews on Sunday instead of Festa Friday but that wouldn’t push Paddack into a spot where he could be skipped.

I think Ryan fits my point. His strike out rate in the minors was 37% (same in AAA). It dropped significantly in the majors where that swing and miss turned into weak contact. Both home runs and hits overall are up in the majors as some of the weak contact in the minors turned into hard contact in the majors. Back to my original wonder… Will too much of the weak contact in the minors turn into hard contact in the majors? Ryan had a lot of space to drop in strike out rate and increase in hard hit rate. Does Morris?

I think Matthews pitched in the same day as Lopez. Both his performance and throwing schedule are a fit. I hope both Paddack and Woods-Richardson step up and make it really hard to take them out of the rotation when Lopez returns. If they don’t and Matthews outperforms them they must keep Matthews in the rotation.

The Twins will send Paddack, Woods-Richardson and Matthews against Detroit. Hopefully all step up and make it a difficult decision about how to proceed when Lopez returns. Can a pitcher be successful in the majors with strikeout rates under 20% in AAA? Dobnak was at 22% last year. I wonder if too much of the weak contact that Morris is generating in AAA will turn into hard contact in the majors.

Would you really put someone with no college or professional experience at 1B mid season? You probably can do it with an infielder. I might do that with a catcher. They at least have good feet and hands to play that position as well as managing balls skipping in the dirt. I can’t see how that would work with a corner OF mid season. How about Keaschall at 1B?

Everyone but Keirsey. Anyone recall a game where he has started? Unless Buxton is playing 162 they are going to need games from him this year. Maybe he is the one who needs to go and get some at bats before Buxton goes down. Alternatively they might try to get him a start once a series.

I have no idea. I hope someone steps up starting today and gets their name off this list.

I was betting on Vazquez at DH as part of the all right handed line up.

I wonder if they also try to match according to the kinds of pitches they expect to see. Is it random when Bader or Miranda are in against right handed pitching or are they selected based on the pitcher’s arsenal? Maybe it is defense. Do they go with Bader if they expect more fly balls?

We disagree. I think it is a health path in this case. Even if it was a reliever path I think he is still a starter in his first go in AA in the Twins organization. I also believe that the best path to a major league reliever is starting through AA. The regular work as well as the number of innings in a starter role is more conducive to developing. Every pitcher they developed in their bullpen was a starter in the minors. Funderburk started 17 games in his first year in AA. The only two relievers in the pen that were not starters in the minors are Coulombe and Topa but they weren’t developed here. They also were quite old before establishing themselves as major leaguers. You might argue that the development path of Twin pitchers is flawed. Maybe they should be putting them in a relief role in the low minors. How many pitchers have come up as relievers since Falvey took over and were spent most of their time in the minors also as a reliever in the Twins organization? Without searching I can think of Jovani Moran.

I really don’t think he is on a starter path as much as he is on a build up an arm path.

I would follow the same path that the Rangers did with Cole Ragans. Here is how they used him in 2021. He hadn’t pitched since 2017 while undergoing two Tommy John surgeries. He made it to the majors in 2022. I don’t think they need to treat every pitcher similarly but I this gives him the best chance to build up his arm. As a starter in the minors he will have a regular routine and throw more innings.

The goal this year should be finish the season healthy. In this case health is what they need to develop and not a role as a reliever or as a starter. I think the best way to get there is the regular work in the rotation once a week and the corresponding regular mound work outside of games. Once he gets through this year healthy they can figure out his role.

After two times through the rotation the 8th man in the bullpen is the Twins leader in innings pitched with 13. They are on pace to get 210.2 innings from that spot in the bullpen. In those 13 innings they have given up 8 hits, struck out 9 and walked 3 with an ERA of 1.38.

A few bullpen use notes… The bullpen has faced 28 batters in high leverage situations according to Baseball Reference. 10 Jax 6 Varland 4 Alcala 3 McCaughan and Sands 1 Topa and Coulombe Did I forget anyone? The 8th man in the pen has pitched 10.2 innings. Varland is next from the bullpen at 6. Topa and Sands have 4 each. Duran(3.1), Coulombe(3.1), Alcala(3) and Jax(2.2) each about 3.

My initial thought about needing both relievers meshed with Morneau’s stated reasoning about the order they would be used. I thought it was the correct move at the time. Jax proved me wrong. Doubly so really because I think because Baldelli gave Duran the bottom of the order in the 8th (8-9-1?) and the heart of the order to Jax. I didn’t factor that in at all.

I would have brought up Zebby to be ready to piggy back today and in the rotation moving forward. It meet today’s immediate need and hopefully a long term need. He is rested and ready to go. I don’t care if they find space by DFAing McCaughan or optioning Varland. Either way they move Paddack to the bullpen and see if he can help there. I am not sure he can command four pitches and they need to reduce that down in a relief role. They chose to bring up Blewett. I watched him pitch once on TV this year. He gave up two runs in the 7th inning (it was the last inning of a double header game 1) to send the game to an extra innings and a loss.

My thought was they needed an inning from Jax to get to the end of the game and it didn’t matter which one Jax gave up runs. I was just being honest about my thinking in game in which Morneau’s comments resonated. In hindsight I was wrong but it is hindsight on my part. The part that wasn’t hindsight was the fifth inning. Sands would have warming before the inning and in after three noncompetitive pitches to walk the 8th batter. Even if he wasn’t warming at the beginning of the fifth he certainly should have been ready after they chose to review. I don’t know how Jax does in the 8th. I am pretty sure Sands does a much better job than Paddack in the fifth if he is ready to go after that walk to the number 8 hitter.

The Twins can’t get by with one pitcher to trust late in games. If Jax doesn’t give up the lead in the 9th inning he just gives it up in the 8th inning and the Twins are in the same spot. Many of his blown saves are prior to the 9th inning. They needed an inning from Jax and an inning from Duran yesterday. Of the two Jax was the only one that was rested to be able to pitch multiple innings. Morneau speculated that was the reason for the order yesterday. If something happens to Duran in the 8th, Jax was rested and could finish across two innings. The reverse was not true. Jax failed to have a clean inning and Duran wasn’t going to give them two clean innings. I put that on Jax and not Baldelli though I do believe Baldelli’s use of the pen yesterday contributed to the loss. My issue was in the 5th inning,

In the moment I agreed with Morneau on the broadcast about using Duran in the 8th and Jax in the 9th. If Duran doesn’t have it against the bottom of the order and can’t finish the 8th they can use Jax across the remaining part of the 8th and the 9th. Jax had not pitched the previous day. They would not be able to do the reverse of the that and use Duran to finish the 8th and then the 9th. If Duran is the only one that can be trusted in the 9th then there are going to be many late game failures this year. I don’t fault Rocco here. I do have an argument about his management of Paddack in the fifth inning. I would have had a reliever getting ready to start the inning. Paddack was facing batters 8 and 9. If either gets in scoring position he needs to be ready to pull Paddack before he see the top of the order a third time. If he didn’t have a reliever warming to start the 5th inning he should have had a reliever warming after the first two pitches of the inning. They were not near competitive pitches way above the strike zone. There is no way he intended to throw them that high. The at bat ended witha non competitive pitch in the dirt on a 3-2 count. Was there anyone warming yet? I don’t know but I hope so. The number 9 hitter gets a hit on the first pitch. The pitch was in the low part of the strike zone but cut the plate in half. Too easy to hit. Rocco should have had a reliever in for Altuve. He should have anticipated the need. Altuve hit his first pitch that was the same pitch same spot as the previous hitter. I thought it was good fortune that it was a play that could be challenged. If no reliever was ready yet certainly the additional time of the lengthy review would get them ready. No reliever yet. In hindsight I can see the Jax/Duran decision failed. In the moment it made sense to me. Perhaps I have trust in Jax that I shouldn’t. My thoughts on the 5th inning are not in hindsight. I don’t have trust in Paddack to face the top of a line up with runners on even with a 6 run lead. I would have had Sands in the game to face Altuve after the 8-9 hitters got on. He would been warming up and ready in anticipation of Paddack not getting the 8 and 9 hitters out.

Isn’t the save percentage of set up men? If they enter the game in the 7th or 8th set up men can get a blown save but won’t have an opportunity to record a save. Relievers can get a hold. Did you factor in holds into your calculation? Alternatively I suppose you could remove all blown save prior to the ninth inning to calculate the save percentage as a closer. That might be a pretty small sample to be meaningful though. Maybe the save percentage calculation includes holds. @TwinsDr2021 data seems like it might. There is still a skew though. Closers usually enter in a clean inning. Set up men more often enter with runners on base giving them a greater chance to blow a save.