jorgenswest

Vazquez has value to this team. With a budget in the 160 million range they can keep him and meet other needs. At the current budget they are going to need to prioritize better their spending better than they did in 2023. Are there teams willing to pay his full salary and give up something in return? In that case I would trade him. I think his full salary used elsewhere is more valuable to the team. I would not give up prospect capital or pay off part of his contract or take on part of a DeSclafani/Margot contract in order to make a deal work. In that case I think Vazquez has more value to the team.

It isn’t about the money. It is about the roster spot. I would argue that Jackson was a bad signing. They were counting on these two last year and their failure to build a bullpen contributed to the disappointing season. If the plan is for Topa to start in AAA and be the shuttle pitcher from St. Paul I am in. If the plan is for him to be the number 4-6 pitcher in the pen I hope they roster someone else. I think it is foolish to count on a 34 year old with an extensive history of injuries and a single solid major league season.

I wrote a year ago that counting on a 33 year old with one healthy productive major league season was ill advised. I felt that counting on him be healthy and match his only good season also meant they wouldn’t look elsewhere for a more reliable solution. Will they double down and count on Justin Topa at age 34? He did throw 71 innings in 2023. You have to go back to 2019 to find a season where he hit 40 innings and that was exactly 40 innings. His next best was 26 innings. The Twins should never have counted on him being healthy and it would be a mistake to count on him being healthy next year. The 1.3 million isn’t prohibitive but writing his name in the bullpen will mean they won’t sign someone else to fill that slot. The same could be argued for Brock Stewart though he has a much higher ceiling. If Stewart is healthy he will be a late inning solution. I would offer arbitration Stewart expecting him to be injured for a good part of the year. I wouldn’t offer arbitration to Topa. A healthy Topa at 34 is as likely to be mediocre as he is to be effective and I doubt he will be healthy.

The off season goal for the Pohlad’s must be to make this franchise attractive. I am wondering how they will go about accomplishing that goal. Do they add to the payroll to generate excitement and ticket sales? Do they refrain from any multiyear obligations? Do they try to sell off some of their current obligations? Do they thin out the front office, support and scouting staff obligations or do they build up a strong foundation? I am a little concerned that they may try to reduce obligations and weaken the longer term foundation while trying to give an appearance of a competitive team. Hopefully the sale will happen quickly.

Cubs fans are mixed. https://northsidebaseball.com/forums/topic/53906-a-big-creative-cubs-twins-trade-that-just-might-work-for-everyone/

If the Twins can’t add a solid starting pitcher for next year they may as well be rebuilding. How can they add that starting pitcher? Add 15-18 million to the budget and identify the right veteran free agent pitcher. Last December the Royals gave Lugo three years and 45 million and Wacha was two years and 32 million. They did their work and identified two starters that propelled the Royals to the playoffs. these two pitchers likely were viewed by some as innings eaters not of playoff starter caliber. The Royals identified them and signed them early in the free agency window. Make a Pablo Lopez type trade. Do the Twins have an established Luis Arraez type player to trade? Budget was not a factor in this decision as the salaries were close for both of these arbitration eligible players. Willi Castro is not going to get it done on his own although the his salary will be similar to Arraez. It could be Castro plus significant prospect where Castro’s addition makes the budget work. Duran might be a better fit but his salary savings will make it hard to find a budget match in return. Make a Sonny Gray type trade His salary was a bargain at 12 million but the Twins would still need to be willing to add to the budget as well as part with a very good prospect or two. Make a Jake Odorizzi type trade Similar to Lopez in that they both were in arbitration and due a Willi Castro level salary. It is different than Lopez in that Odorizzi did not have the same perceived excess value so a less significant prospect would be sent. In order to make the budget work they would need to trade Willi Castro in a different deal for a prospect. Make a Corbin Burnes type trade The acquisition cost of trading for a rental is so much lower than a player with 2 or 3 years of control because the excess value is that much lower. They could seek a pitcher with 1 year before free agency but the only comp I see is Framber Valdez. The Astros have two large arb 3 awards coming this winter. Would they move him? Add to the budget or move a significant player? They really don’t have a player with both a significant enough salary as well as excess value beyond that salary to trade. The closest is Willi Castro. I think the only answer is to add to the budget. If they aren’t willing to add to the budget then it is a rebuild whether they call it one or not.

Offering arbitration to eligible players is not a budget decision. It doesn’t matter whether the Twins plan to decrease, increase or maintain their budget. There is not reason it should be a factor in the decision. The only factor in the decision is the excess value the player can be expected to provide over the expected arbitration award. The Twins front office needs to do two things well. They need to project the value next year including a good read of how other team’s perceive that player’s value. They also need to project the award. Two years ago they offered Urshela arbitration and then were able to trade him to the Angels for Hidalgo. In this case Urshela offered little if any excess value but the Twins did get a young pitcher. Last year they offered Farmer a contract. I suspect no team saw any excess value and the Twins were unable to trade him. Is Castro’s value clearly in excess of his projected award? That is all that matters. I given his age and value the last two years I don’t think this is a tough decision at all. He has excess value and is a tradeable asset if his salary does not fit the budget. Topa? I think this is a risk. He has one season in his career of more than 7 major league innings. There are too many inexpensive relievers on the market with a better track record of health. Trading him for anything helpful unlikely. My fear is they sign him with the expectation he is a solution to their bullpen only to see him injured or ineffective. Kirilloff’s option adds to his value. I have no idea how other team’s perceive his value but I think a trade is reasonable. I would start him in AAA and retain him. His option will give him chances to make it back in the roster. Duran? This one isn’t a tough decision. There is excess value. He is an asset that can be traded.

They should consider the assistant hitting coach from the Royals (Keoni DeRenne) and Guardians (Dan Puente). Both are in the early 40s and the promotion would be their first opportunity as the hitting coach for a major league team.

That wasn’t a lateral move. The Marlins hired him as bench coach. I suppose the Twins could have retained him by promoting him to bench coach and firing Shelton but they still would need to hire a hitting coach at that point. They probably land on Hernandez as they did then. I don’t see a dropped ball. Coaches from successful teams leave organizations for promotions routinely. It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would be able to hire a hitting coach employed by another team. Do lateral moves happen often? If the coach is successful why would the team let him go? If the team is OK with letting him go then why wouldn’t they do that in the first place?

Reasonable to wonder. Including 2024 Milwaukee has four first place finishes since Falvey has taken over. The Twins have three. Neither has been to the World Series in that span. Each has won one playoff series. Prior to 2018 Milwaukee had a run of 35 years prior with just one first place finish in the division. You would think it would be hard to build a fan base that way. Maybe such a long stretch of poor baseball left the fans more hungry. The Twins have had many more division titles in the 2000s only to be followed by playoff disappointment. Maybe that frequent disappointment has curbed the Minnesota appetite for baseball.

The boost they needed from last year’s playoff run happens during the ticket sales during that run. It starts with selling playoff tickets to fans connected to purchasing packages for next season. The Twins didn’t get that boost or we would have seen it reflected in this year’s ticket sales. The front office reacted to the disappointing future sales by cutting the budget. There has also been some bad luck. They had a great regular season in 2019 and then couldn’t sell tickets for 2020. They had another first place season in 2020 to an empty stadium. They finally have success that wasn’t impacted by COVID-19 and even win a playoff series in 2023. You would have expected fans to be buying 2024 season packages during that playoff run. It didn’t happen. Some things are self inflicted. The TV rights has been a disaster. Cutting the budget to pre-Correa levels reduced their ability to field a contender. They didn’t generate revenue during last year’s winning season very well with average cost for a family of 4 ranking 29th. Only the Marlins generated less revenue from a family of 4 in 2023. We can look for where to place the blame but it is part the reality of choosing to be a follower of a small to mid market team.

That could be best for the playoffs if they can close it out before 162. The downside is that they lose a regular season start from Ober. As it stands Lopez and Ober can start four of the remaining eight games.

Lopez pitching today was lined up to start game 1 of the playoffs on normal rest. The rain has upended those plans. Ober is set for Tuesday and if he isn’t needed on game 162 he would be available for game 1. The Twins really need to wrap this up before game 162.

The Twins win 4-1 and a bench player near the end of his Twins career dominates the conversation. How about Zebby Matthews holding the Guardians to one run? Did anyone else hear on the broadcast that Matthews was throwing a change up he learned after reaching the majors? I wasn’t sure if the change up itself was new or if it was a new type of change up for him. I started listening and finished watching but I believe this came from the radio team. Turns out he needed something to help him get major league left handed hitters out. In the first inning he got outs on his change up from Gimenez and Ramirez. He also threw several for balls. Nice adjustment but I have to wonder why he isn’t learning this pitch in the minors even if he doesn’t need it to get minor league left handed hitters out.

I don’t know what to make of his metrics. By eye he looks to play a below average but passable 3B. His OAA is -8 in 605 innings. That doesn’t look good but his DRS is +1 and UZR/150 is -5. There are several other 3Bs in the -3 to -12 range and the others have a matching negative DRS and some have double digit negative UZRs. If all of the metrics were well into the negatives I would be convinced putrid is appropriate. Royce Lewis has conflicting measures also his UZR/150 is -36 and DRS is -3 while is OAA is 0. Putrid? I would say both have been passable to mediocre with different areas they need to improve. Both are young enough to get better at 3B.

They hit on 17 with Santana, DeSclafani, Margot, Farmer, Thielbar, Topa, Okert, Richards, Jackson and caught one 3.

Seems like an irresponsible take.

They can petition to add off the 40 players that were in the organization prior to September 1.

Some team may give him a shot but it is going to be hard to find a pitcher that trusts him to be his catcher.

Keirsey and Cal Stevenson have a lot in common. Both are 27, played in the PAC 12, were drafted in 2018, are primarily centerfielders that can steal bases. Stevenson is currently on the Phillies bench being used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. His ISO in AAA this year is .184 and Keirsey’s is .185. Stevenson has had the better wRC+(139 to 116) in AAA this year due to his ability to draw walks. Keirsey is getting his first shot. Cal has had several because of his earlier minor league success. That success led him to be put on the 40 man earlier and therefore run out of options earlier. Since then he has bounced around as a DFA quite a bit after being traded a few times early in his career. It seems unlikely that Keirsey is better than Stevenson. Keirsey has not been quite as solid with the bat. To this point Stevenson has provided depth in AAA whose speed and ability to play centerfield will get him cups of coffee while he is in the prime of his career. I don’t think Stevenson would be seen as a Buxton replacement. If so the Twins ought to sign him this winter. He will likely be available.

Is it a given that he is already an above average major league centerfielder? He is fast. Does he take a good first step? Does he track the ball well? These are hard to watching the game in person and impossible watching on MiLB TV. The Twins staff should know having watched him. I don’t agree that they needed to call him up to see to evaluate his defense. If they left sitting in AAA a defensively above average major league center fielder that can approach league average with the bat they should all be fired.

Not very many good options. Those two did end up with half of the hits.

They are their splits in games started by a left handed pitcher. They probably get a few at bats against a right handed pitcher in those games that are part of that record. I appreciate the split. Catchers usually play the full game so this split can be telling for them. Ryan Jeffers for his career has an OPS 70 points greater in games started by a right handed pitcher. He isn’t a better hitter against right handed pitching. He must be feasting on those at bats against lefty relievers later in the game when the right handed pitcher is pulled after two times through the line up. In this era of starters pitching half the game it would seem the wise line up would be put out your best 9 as often as possible. Jeffers is not suffering starting against all those righties.

I will add that Walker had a 9 year stretch as a regular with an OPS+ of 101. That is pretty useful particularly through the first few years of arbitration. I think that is a reasonable comp in value that may be a little closer to Julien’s ceiling than this floor.

Helman’s wRC+ in AAA is 126 to Keirsey’s 117. In 2023 it was 122 to Keirsey’s 93. Maybe Helman is the better hitter.