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By Friday at 7:00 pm, MLB teams will need to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2024. The Twins have already made their official decision on two arbitration-eligible players and have to make their decisions on seven more players. And those decisions come with several question marks. (Article updated Friday, 7:40 pm after roster decisions announced) Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Article Update (7:40 pm): On Friday night, the Twins announced that they have tendered 2024 contracts to all seven arbitration-eligible players. It was also announced the Jovani Moran is expected to be having Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the 2024 season. The Twins are trying to get him to sign a two-year minor league deal. In addition, the Twins did not tender a 2024 contract to RHP Ronny Henriquez. With Moran and Henriquez coming off of the 40-man roster, the roster is now at 36 players. There are 17 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins had nine players on their roster that were arbitration-eligible. Since then, the Twins made quick decisions on two of them. Soon after their playoff run concluded, Jordan Luplow and Jose De Leon were designated for assignment and became free agents. That leaves seven players that the Twins still need to make decisions about their 2024 status. Below, I will run through these seven players and make some notes on each. Several of them may involve answering some difficult questions. A few are pretty easy decisions. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss these decisions in the Forum below. Also, generally-speaking not many pre-arbitration players are non-tendered, but it has happened. We aren't going to try to project which, if any, of those players will be non-tendered on Friday. (Players sorted by MLB Trade Rumors Projections) 2B/OF Nick Gordon Service Time: 2.136 (two years, 136 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: If this decision had to be made after Gordon’s 2022 breakout season, it would have been simple. However, Gordon’s 2023 season started out very slow, but just when he started playing well, he broke his leg and was out the remainder of the season. However, he was an impressive teammate and cheerleader for the team in October! Potential 2024 Role: Gordon can play second base and performed well in left field and centerfield over the previous year. In a pinch, he can play shortstop and third base as well. He could be the left-handed side of platoons or a more traditional utility player, capable of playing at least five positions if needed. With the emergence of Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis, and the likes of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee potentially ready in the near future, playing time may be more and more limited. Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Prediction: The dollars are low and Gordon should have value to teams, including the Twins. I would predict that he will be tendered a 2024 contract, although I would think that the Twins front office might be looking to trade him to a team looking for a solid utility option. A trade could happen before Friday’s deadline, or anytime after Friday (assuming he is tendered). RHP Jorge Alcala Service Time: 4.014 (four years, 14 days) Arbitration Year: 2 of 3 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After pitching just twice in 2022, Alcala made the 2023 opening day roster. However, after 10 games and 15 innings, he went on the Injured List in mid-May and didn’t return until the final game of the season. However, in that game, he was displaying a fastball between 97 and 99 and a sharp slider. Potential 2024 Role: The “potential” for Alcala has been the same each of the past five offseasons. When healthy, he has a big fastball and quality secondaries that are inconsistent but have big… potential. He has the potential and talent to be the top set up man, joining Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart in getting the ball to Jhoan Duran. I’d like to see what he can do in a fully healthy season. Biggest Question Mark: Health. That’s it. Yeah, he can work on pitches too and become more consistent, but the only way to do that is to stay healthy and get the innings. Prediction: This should be a very easy decision. The Twins should absolutely tender him a contract. If it’s $1 million, that’s fine. A year ago, he avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $790,000 deal, just $70K over league minimum. With his limited pitching the last couple of seasons, I would think he would happily sign a one-year, $900,000 deal, or something in that range. Sure, the team can still look to trade him if someone sends a quality prospect. However, Alcala hasn’t been optioned in the past, so he’s got three years worth of options remaining which might allow him to work on things and get innings if he’s not with the Twins. 1B Alex Kirilloff Service Time: 2.141 (two years, 141 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 26 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.7 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Because of ongoing wrist pain, Kirilloff’s 2022 season ended after just 45 games. He had a surgery which involved shaving bones in his wrist to help alleviate the pain. The Twins brought him back slowly early in the 2023 season. He missed some time, but generally speaking, his wrist was not an issue. He played in 88 games and posted a .793 OPS with 14 doubles and 11 homers. He struggled in the playoffs and was removed from the roster in the ALDS series against the Astros due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery shortly after the Twins playoff run came to an end. Potential 2024 Role: When healthy, Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. While his surgery turned out to be much more minor than feared, he could still miss some time early in the season. When he’s healthy, he is potentially an All Star bat. Can he still reach that level? Biggest Question Mark: That is the question. He will get healthy in time, though that has certainly become his biggest issue so far. He was pretty strictly platooned in 2023 due to some horrific numbers versus southpaws. Can he put up decent-enough numbers against same-siders to be an everyday player? Prediction: Easy decision. He will be tendered a contract. Can they negotiate a deal with him and his agent (Boras) to sign a deal for below the projection? Maybe. C Ryan Jeffers Service Time: 3.089 (three years, 89 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 3 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $2.3 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After hitting a combined .203/.277/.384 (.661) in 152 games between 2021 and 2022, the Twins brought in veteran backstop Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal. Early in the season, Vazquez was playing approximately two out of three games. However, Jeffers started playing much better behind the plate and at the plate. In 96 games, he hit .276/.369/.490 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 home runs. His OPS+ was 134! The Twins played six playoff games in 2023. Jeffers caught all six of them. Potential 2024 Role: Aside from “normal” catcher bumps, bruises and pain, Vazquez and Jeffers remained healthy throughout the 2023 season. The two should continue to split time, with Jeffers getting the start in two out of three games. If he’s hitting like he did in 2023, he could get more DH opportunities too. Biggest Question Mark: He’s a catcher. That alone comes with inherent risks of injury. That shouldn’t be a consideration in this discussion. So the big question for Jeffers in 2024 will be if he can replicate his 2023 success as opposed to revert to his 2021 and 2022 levels. Prediction: Another easy decision. In fact, these two sides should spend time this offseason working on a four or five year deal to keep him in a Twins uniform for a long time. LHP Caleb Thielbar Service Time: 5.131 (five years, 131 days) Arbitration Year: 3 of 3 Age in 2024: 37 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Since returning to the Twins before the 2020 season, Thielbar has been remarkably consistent, and remarkably effective as a setup man for the Twins. 2023 was the first time in his career that he missed significant time due to injury. He strained his oblique, probably came back too quickly, strained it again and then took longer to return the second time. So, he only pitched in 36 games, but in his 30 2/3 innings, he had 36 strikeouts and just six walks. For the first time since his 2013 rookie season, he had a WHIP of under 1.00. Potential 2024 Role: More of the same from Thielbar. Yes, he will be 37, but he hasn’t lost velocity, and his curveball continues to be a great pitch. He should continue to get crucial spots anywhere from the sixth through ninth innings. He can also continue to be a mentor in the bullpen. Biggest Question Mark: Can he stay healthy throughout most of the season? And obviously can he remain effective for another year? And on some level, how much longer does he want to continue pitching? Prediction: Sure, there are questions, but this is another easy decision for the Twins’ brass. Thielbar will be tendered a contract for 2024. And I would like to see the two sides come together and discuss a longer-term deal. Maybe it’s a series of options. $3 million for 2024, then an option for 2025 at $3 million that vests with 50 innings. If he is between 40 and 49 2/3 innings in 2024, the option vests at $2.5 million. If he’s under 40 innings, there could be a club option at $2 million but if they decline it, there could be a player option at $1.5 million. And, of course, Thielbar would have the right to retire at any point. The lawyers could get involved to creatively work through a one-year deal with a couple of options that would keep Thielbar pitching for his hometown team until he retires. UT Willi Castro Service Time: 4.017 (4 years, 17 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 2 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.2 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Following the 2022 season, Castro had accumulated just over three years of service time with the Tigers. He was projected to make $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, so Detroit non-tendered him. The Twins pursued him aggressively and he quickly signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in which he would make $1.8 million if he was with the Twins all season. Because of injuries and more, Castro made the Twins Opening Day roster, and after not playing for the first several games, he found a way to spend the entire season as a very valuable role player with the Twins. He was fantastic defensively at three infield positions. He did a nice job filling in left and center field as well. In his parts of four seasons with the Tigers, he accumulated 0.4 bWAR. In 124 games with the Twins in 2023, Castro ranked third among Twins hitters with 2.6 bWAR. He played strong defense. He hit .257/.339/.411 (.750) with 32 extra base hits. He stole 33 bases in 38 attempts, an element the Twins haven’t had for a long time. Potential 2024 Role: His role in 2024 should be very similar to what it was in 2023. He can play three to five times per week all over the diamond. The fact that he is a switch hitter allows him to give guys off at different spots regardless of that day’s starting pitcher. Biggest Question Mark: He was well worth the $1.8 million in 2023, and we can all picture him continuing to be valuable, but his 2023 production was significantly better than it had been the two previous seasons when he played over 110 games. Won’t the real Willi Castro please stand up? And, how does the front office see the combination of Castro and Gordon in the organization? Can they both be on the roster and provide value? Castro is a year younger. Prediction: This is really the first one where I’ve had to think about how much I buy into Willi Castro’s 2023 season. That said, I think the Twins will tender him a contract, try to come up with a little lower than projected number, and use his switch-hitting and defensive versatility in 2024. IF Kyle Farmer Service Time: 5.129 (five years, 129 days) Arbitration Year: 3 or 3 Age in 2024: 33 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $6.6 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Farmer came to the Twins after the 2022 season from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RH RP Casey Legumina. At the time, he was technically the Twins starting shortstop. As you all know, after a long and winding road, Carlos Correa came back to the Twins which meant it was back to the bench for Farmer. That said, Rocco Baldelli kept his bench active all season. Farmer got extended time at second base early in the season when Jorge Polanco was out. He got quite a bit of time at third base in between the Jose Miranda demotion and the return of Royce Lewis. And late in the year, he played shortstop most every day when Correa was resting his plantar fasciitis. In between, he was a platoon player, often splitting time with, and mentoring, Edouard Julien at second base. Solid defense around the infield. Fantastic leader and teammate. Generally mashes left-handed pitching. Took a fastball to the mouth and went through multiple surgeries. Potential 2024 Role: It would be the same general role for Farmer in 2024. Depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out this offseason, he could platoon at first and/or second base. He can pinch hit, DH, and even be that emergency catcher. Depending on health, it is likely his playing time would decrease. Biggest Question Mark: Payroll. Just what will the Twins payroll be in 2024. We know it’s going to drop, so can the Twins afford to pay a utility player over $6 million? Unfortunately that is the reality because my sense is that everyone associated with the Twins would love to bring Farmer back. Prediction: This is by far the most difficult decision for the Twins front office. As noted, if payroll remained the same, he would very likely be tendered, but with payroll down, we can’t assume that. We know his value to a big-league roster. You would hate to non-tender him and lose him for nothing. So, I don’t think they’ll do that. I do think that they will try hard to trade him for something over the next 24-36 hours, but if they can’t before Friday’s deadline, I would guess that they will tender him a contract and continue to try to deal him throughout the offseason. There are quick glimpses at the seven remaining arbitration-eligible cases that the Twins front office have to make decisions on before Friday evening. Will they tender all seven? How many do you think they will, or they should tender? Could they be looking to make a trade or two, either of these players or of some pre-arbitration players to make additional room on the roster? How many of these players should be considered for multi-year contract extensions? Feel free to discuss below. And again, check back over the next couple of days to find out what the Twins decided to do. View full article

The Minnesota Twins finished out their 2023 regular season on Wednesday night. Although it didn’t end the way they had hoped, the season was nothing short of a resounding success. Looking toward 2024, it’s now worth wondering which players will be back. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie. Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return. Here is how I see the group shaking out: Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli. At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense. Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list. The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers. Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M) When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back. At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate. Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k) We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally. This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him. Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal. What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

Regression hitting like a load of bricks, key players failing to step up in favorable matchups, and regular-season warning signs coming to roost: These were the defining letdowns that led to Minnesota's postseason exit. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports I want to start by saying that, at long last, a lot went RIGHT for the Twins in these playoffs. They snapped a 19-year losing streak, they triumphantly swept the Blue Jays at home, and they made the defending champs sweat in the ALDS. You're not going to catch me calling this year a failure. But at the end of the day, the Twins did come up short. And they did so in rather painful fashion, after Sunday night's victory set them up in very favorable position to come home and take control against the Astros. So here in this postmortem, we'll dissect four key things that went wrong for the Twins and led to their exit in the second round of the playoffs. 1. Legitimate fears came to fruition. This is the banner headline that encapsulates several different subplots. The frustrating thing about Minnesota's most fatal flaws in the postseason is that, in many cases, they weren't that hard to see coming. These were concerns that long loomed in our minds, and caused apprehension as we looked ahead to the high stakes of October. In particular, these are three striking examples of how our fears turned into reality. The offense goes back into its shell: Performances like Tuesday and Wednesday were the team's calling card in the first half, as they compiled strikeouts at a historic rate and frequently no-showed in the runs column. Even with all the improvement in the second half, those kinds of games were still mixed in -- the byproduct of a lineup prone to striking out in bunches, and shriveling up in damage spots. Regression slaps Sonny Gray in the face: There were clear signs of unsustainability in the 33-year-old's phenomenal regular season numbers. Namely: Gray's penchant for wriggling out of jams and limiting home runs to an extreme degree. All that regression pretty much came to a head on one devastating pitch to Jose Abreu with two runners on in Game 3. Alex Kirilloff playing hurt: The oft-injured first baseman missed all of August with a shoulder issue that seemed pretty serious, but made it back to play 19 games in September. His numbers were fine (.766 OPS) but Kirilloff hardly looked like he was at his best, and the team noticeably took it easy with his usage. Fears that his shoulder might still be bothering him were confirmed when AK exited Game 3 and was removed from the roster afterward. 2. Ryan Jeffers failed to live up to the team's hopes. The Twins really put their eggs in the Jeffers basket, and understandably so. He had a tremendous season, ranking second among MLB catchers in wOBA and second among all Twins position players in fWAR. Rocco Baldelli figured he had a big advantage in being able to run out that kind of bat behind the plate, so he did so in all six games. Unfortunately, Jeffers did not deliver, managing just two singles and two walks in 25 plate appearances. The decision to use Jeffers exclusively meant, in turn, that Christian Vazquez saw zero action in the entire postseason. Again, it's justifiable given how bad his bat was all season, but Vazquez was signed in large part for his seasoning on the big stages of Boston and Houston. He's battle-tested, but never got tested in this losing battle. 3. The lefty bats couldn't capitalize or cash in. One of the biggest reasons for optimism around the Twins in these playoffs was how well their lefty-powered lineup was set up for success based on match-ups. Minnesota's ALWC opponent, the Blue Jays, threw two right-handed starters. The Astros brought a bullpen devoid of lefty arms into the ALDS. Players like Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were in a position to shine after hammering right-handed pitching all year long. With the exception of Julien, none did. Kirilloff went 0-for-9 while playing hurt. Wallner was 0-for-8. Kepler went 5-for-23 (.217) with 10 strikeouts, one walk, one run scored, and zero batted in. He struck out looking at strike three to end the Twins' season on Wednesday, exploding into frustration as his lifetime playoff average dropped to .146. 4. Caleb Thielbar's biggest weakness came to bite him. Thielbar has been a spectacular performer and awesome story in the Twins bullpen. Returning from pseudo-retirement in his mid-30s, he's put together one of the better multi-year stretches for a reliever in Twins history, posting a 3.21 ERA since 2020. He was really good once again this year, despite missing time with an oblique injury, but one issue haunted the left-hander: home runs. He gave up seven this year in just 30 ⅔ innings, with his fastball victimized most frequently. Here, in contrast to Sonny Gray, you'd hope for a little positive regression; home runs had never really been a big problem for Thielbar in the past, and 30 innings is a small sample size. But the long ball was most definitely a problem for Thielbar in this ALDS. In Game 1 he gave up a homer to Yordan Alvarez, extending Houston's lead from one to two in the seventh inning. That one hurt, coming immediately after Minnesota's offense narrowed the deficit in the top half. But it didn't hurt as much as the next one. On Wednesday, Jose Abreu got hold of a 1-0 pitch from Thielbar -- a fastball -- and drove it over the fence in right for a tie-breaking (ultimately game-winning) home run. According to Baseball Reference it was the single most pivotal play of the series. Mistakes and missed opportunities are magnified on the big stage in October. These are the ones that will have an outsized impression in my mind as I look back at this run and what could've been. View full article

Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley have done plenty of damage to the Twins over the years, but Wednesday night may have been their biggest moments of damage against them over the years. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports Every Twins fan has a list of players they begrudgingly think back on who’s done the most damage to the team over the years. Players such as Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Miguel Cabrera, Cliff Lee, Mark Mulder, etc. have always shunned some terror in fans' memories. Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley have been on fan lists for several years from their times with the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians. But the last two games of the ALDS against the Houston Astros to end the Twins' 2023 season, cemented them among the likes of Yankee players that have killed the Twins' postseason dreams over the last 20 years. Over their careers, both Brantley and Abreu have killed the Twins in almost a full season’s worth of games. Brantley has posted a .299/.356/.418 (.774) with nine home runs and 64 RBI across 134 career games against the Twins. Abreu has done much more damage, as many fans now. He has a .300/.363/.511 (.874) with 28 home runs and 109 RBI. But this season hasn’t been the same for either of them compared to earlier in their careers. Brantley only played in 15 games down the stretch after being out the whole season. Abreu had his worst season by bWAR at -0.1 in 2023. He never had a season with a bWAR below 2.0 before this year. Abreu showed signs of his old self as the Astros season winded down. He hit seven home runs, had 28 RBI, and posted a .835 OPS in 107 plate appearances across 26 games. That success didn’t trickle into his performance during the first two games of the Twins vs. Astros ALDS at Minute Maid Park. He went one for seven with a walk in those two games. The Twins' return to Target Field for Game 3 was Abreu’s moment to inflict more pain into Twins fandom, and he delivered. The Astros were mounting up a rally in the top of the first against Sonny Gray, runners were on the corners with one out. Gray tried to beat Abreu in his weak spot, down and inside. The second pitch was when Abreu made contact on a pitch and it didn’t come back. He put the Astros up 4-0. Abreu was kept quiet throughout the rest of the game, until the ninth inning. Kyle Tucker followed Yordan Alvarez’s solo home run with a walk. Abreu stepped up to face Bailey Ober. He only needed two pitches to pull the ball to left-center field and solidified the Astros win at 9-1. This was Abreu’s moment in an Astros uniform. All the trial and tribulation that showed signs of regression with age went away in Game 3 and he looked like the Jose Abreu of old in a White Sox uniform that won an MVP award. Before the start of Game 4, Astros outfielder and teammate of Abreu, Chas McCormick met with media members. He was asked about how he had seen Abreu handle his struggles from the season and what paid off in Game 3. “He handled it really well. It’s Jose Abreu. I’ve seen him playing against him, I’ve seen him hit 320 bombs. I think we’re getting that Jose Abreu right now, which is perfect. He can take us far and away if he hits like he did yesterday,” said McCormick. And if McCormick was looking into a crystal ball to see the future, Abreu did hit like he did in Game 3 during Game 4. Abreu had the game-winning hit, a two-run homer in the top of the fourth off Caleb Thielbar to put the Astros up 3-4. The Twins bats couldn’t come back from that moment outside of an Edouard Julien home run and it solidified the Twins elimination from the postseason Brantley sat out Game 3 while the Astros' young catcher Yainer Diaz took on the designated hitter duties in his place and Alvarez platooned left field. He would have his moment Brantley’s big moment for the Astros in this series came a couple of innings before. He tied the game off a Joe Ryan fastball and sent it into the right-center field bleachers. That tied the game up 1-1 in the second and showed the Astros were not going to let the Twins get a win here easily. And they didn’t on Wednesday night, those two homers were all the Astros needed as the Twins bats came up cold. Abreu and Brantley did what they have both done for 10 years now against this team and showed up when it mattered most for Houston. There are many other moments Twins fans will reflect on when it comes to Abreu and Brantley lighting up their bats against this team. But the moments from Tuesday and Wednesday night's games will be the ones fans remember as the worst moments of damage they’ve done to the Twins franchise. View full article

Rarely do teams slug their way to postseason success, as October always features some of the biggest arms in baseball to help suppress offenses. Through their first two games, the Twins have shown that their pitching staff should be able to hang with the best of them. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports Pitching has been a question mark for the Twins seemingly forever. After showing what looked to be a Top 5 staff in baseball in the first half, they came back down to earth after the All-Star break after injuries and a bit of regression hit. With a few pieces missing and a lack of deadline moves, the Twins hinged on several players returning in good health at he top of their game, and through the first round of the playoffs, it looks like the bet paid off in a big way. While the Blue Jays offense is far from a juggernaut, they were comfortably a lineup in the top half of the league ranking 11th in OPS at .745. In two games against this lineup, the Twins pitching staff was utterly dominant. The pairing of Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray was predictably formidable, but the bullpen is where the Twins' stable of arms really answered a lot of necessary questions. The Twins leaned on their bullpen for 7 1/3 innings, allowing just five hits, one walk, and striking out 10. Perhaps more impressive than the pitching lines was how dominant each arm looked when called upon. It goes without saying, this is a bullpen unlike any we’ve ever witnessed in Twins territory. For years it seems Twins fans have watched opposing postseason-caliber bullpens be called upon with a stable of arms capable of approaching triple digits, wondering how this was even possible. Those days are now over. From Brock Stewart and Louie Varland to Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, the Twins' postseason bullpen looks every bit the part. It seems just yesterday that the Twins' main targets were soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact, ground ball specialists. Skipping ahead to 2023, the Twins reliever with the lowest average fastball velocity to appear in either game was Caleb Thielbar averaging 93.8 in Game 2. This isn’t the mid-2000s Twins anymore. Beyond the pitchers who dominated in the first round, the Twins have yet to turn to other pitchers who have dominated to varying degrees such as Chris Paddack, Kody Funderburk, and Emilio Pagán, each of whom we’ll likely see at some point against Houston in the coming days. The playoffs are random, but the Twins have the tools to compete in an atmosphere so often dominated by pitching staffs. With two legitimate top-of-the-rotation options to lead what is finally a dominant, high-octane bullpen, fans should have a reason to believe that the Twins are legitimate contenders to go on a run for a few weeks, which is all it takes in the postseason. There are no assurances in October, but the Twins have put together a pitching staff worthy of hanging our hopes on. Regardless of where the season goes from here, it’s worth celebrating. It’s time for Twins fans to sit back and enjoy the smoke being thrown on a daily basis. View full article

The 2023 Twins continue to make history. After snapping an 0-18 playoff losing streak on Tuesday, Minnesota prevailed again against the Toronto Blue Jays in game two of the Wild Card series, securing their first playoff series win since 2002. They move on to face the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series starting this Saturday. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (85 pitches, 53 strikes, 64.7%) Home Runs: none Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (.274), Caleb Thielbar (.124), Donovan Solano (.091) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) A day after snapping the longest playoff losing streak in North American sports history, the Minnesota Twins were looking to make history once more. If they defeated the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field this afternoon, they would win their first postseason series since 2002, when they beat the Oakland Athletics in game five of the American League Division Series. Standing in their way today was former Twin and fan favorite José Berríos. “La Makina” never got the chance to start for Minnesota in the postseason at Target Field with fans in the stands – his sole Target Field postseason start as a Twin was in 2020, and fans weren’t allowed to attend games then. In five starts against his former club since the trade, Berríos has had a 4.03 ERA and 1.172 WHIP, having given up five home runs. Taking the mound for Minnesota today was Cy Young Award hopeful Sonny Gray, by far the Twins’ most prolific player this season after leading the club in Wins Above Replacement (5.4 per Baseball-Reference and 5.3 per FanGraphs) and posting a 2.79 ERA in the regular season, good for third best in the majors. Neither lineup, in theory, was expected to do a lot of damage as long as those two starters were on the mound today. But Toronto did threaten a bit early on, with two runners reaching in both, the first and the second innings, but Gray was able to put out the fire in both opportunities. He settled in nicely after the second inning, culminating in a quick, 1-2-3 top of the fourth. Meanwhile, despite allowing three hits, Berríos was sharp through three, keeping the Twins off the board, while striking out five and allowing no walks. But things would change abruptly in the home fourth. Twins take advantage of some poor managing Berríos completed three innings on 39 pitches, throwing nearly 72% strikes. But when Royce Lewis drew an eight-pitch walk against him to lead off the fourth, Blue Jays manager John Schneider decided to pull him and bring lefty Yusei Kikuchi into the game. It didn’t take long for Toronto to pay the price for that decision. Max Kepler swung on the second pitch he saw and beat the throw to first. Then, pinch-hitter Donovan Solano drew a walk against Kikuchi to load them up with no outs. Carlos Correa, who had snapped an 0-for-4 skid with an infield hit in the second, collected his second hit of the game with a grounder to center, scoring Lewis from third and keeping the bases loaded. Coming into the game to hit for Matt Wallner, Willi Castro grounded into a double play that allowed Kepler to score from third, making it 2-0 Twins. Sonny escapes another jam with a great pick-off Toronto threatened again in the fifth when George Springer hit a one-out single, his second hit of the ballgame, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fought hard for a seven-pitch walk. When Gray threw a wild pitch, both runners moved up, and the Blue Jays could take the lead with a swing of the bat. But with Bichette batting, Gray made a fantastic throw to Correa at second to pick off Guerrero Jr. with a clean tag to the chest, ending the inning in style. Toronto challenged the play, but it was worthless. Sonny departed the game after the fifth, lowering his career postseason ERA to 2.39 in five starts. Once again, the bullpen is brilliant, holding on to a slim lead With a narrow lead, the Twins bullpen would have its work cut out for them. Again. Louie Varland took over in the sixth and struck out Bichette to lead off the inning. However, he lost the next two batters to back-to-back singles, and Rocco Baldelli decided to bring in Caleb Thielbar to get the final two outs of the inning. Thielbar got the job done, but it wasn’t easy. Santiago Espinal hit a single on the first pitch he saw from Thielbar, and the bases were loaded with only one out. Matt Chapman stepped up to the plate, and he ripped a liner to left that pulled foul by mere inches. Then, on the next pitch, he grounded into an inning-ending double play. After the offense came out empty-handed in the bottom of the sixth, the bullpen delivered again in the seventh. Brock Stewart took the mound to toss a 1-2-3 inning on 17 pitches, striking out two batters. Unfortunately, a cold offense couldn’t back him up in the home seventh. Going 1-for-9 with a walk since they scored in the fourth, Minnesota’s bats put together a threat by drawing two walks, but both runners were stranded. Griffin Jax was flawless in the top of the seventh against the heart of the Blue Jays lineup, retiring Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Cavan Biggio in order on 15 pitches. To retire Biggio, he was involved in a scary collision on the base paths, but he was okay. Correa (hit by pitch) and Castro (single) put together a threat in the bottom of the eighth, with both of them moving into scoring position, but that didn’t pan out. It was up to Jhoan Durán to close out the game in the ninth… or was it? During some warm-up pitches, the Twins closer called the Twins training staff out to have an apparent problem on his right thumb or nail checked out. He stayed in the game, and after a pair of pitches way up, he settled in and struck out Alejandro Kirk. Espinal jumped on the first pitch for a single, but that went to waste, as Durán struck out the next two batters on six pitches. For the first time in franchise history, the Twins sweep a postseason series. What’s Next? The Twins move to the American League Division Series for the first time since 2019. They get ready for a rematch against the Houston Astros, who eliminated Minnesota in their most recent trip to the postseason, in the 2020 Wild Card Series. Game 1 of the series takes place this Saturday (October 7) at Minute Maid Park. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Jax 19 0 0 8 15 42 Paddack 39 0 0 0 0 39 Durán 11 0 0 14 13 38 Thielbar 9 0 0 10 4 23 Varland 0 0 0 2 17 19 Stewart 0 5 0 0 13 18 Funderburk 0 16 0 0 0 16 Pagán 15 0 0 0 0 15 Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Relief pitching takes on even more importance in October when a game's outcome can tip on one pitch. Here is how the Twins’ bullpen stacks up heading into the playoffs. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Successful teams in October rely on shutdown bullpen arms in the late innings of tight games. Minnesota's last playoff win came in 2004, with Joe Nathan earning the save at a time when he was considered one of the game's best closers. Flash-forward nearly two decades, and the team's bullpen is built around another dominant closer. Can the other relievers bridge the gap between the starters and the final innings? Minnesota's postseason roster will include changes from one round to the next if the team can win its best-of-three Wild Card Series. Rosters can include 26 players for the playoffs, so the club will likely utilize 15 position players and 11 pitchers for the first round. Three pitchers will be the scheduled starters, leaving eight spots open for bullpen arms. Closer: Jhoan Duran Duran has been one of baseball's best relievers over the last two seasons, ranking third among AL relievers in WPA since the start of 2022. He began the 2022 season well before a rough patch in July and August that saw his ERA rise from below 2.00 to nearly 3.00. Since August 4th, the Twins have focused on giving Duran more regular rest, significantly impacting his overall performance. In 16 games (16 2/3 innings), he has allowed two earned runs with a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding batters to a .551 OPS. His lone blemish in recent games was the team's division-clinching win, but he said his nerves impacted his performance that night. In the playoffs, the Twins have some questions to answer about how they use Duran. How can he perform in back-to-back appearances? Will the Twins use him for more than one inning? Duran can be a playoff weapon, especially if the team finds a way to keep him fresh. Set-Up: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar Jax has earned a high-leverage role from the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons. However, there have been some up-and-down moments with his performance in 2023, including May, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.59. Bad luck has been mixed into his overall performance, as his ERA is nearly 70 points higher than his FIP. The Twins will ask Jax to get some critical outs in October, and the hope is that the dominant version of Jax will appear that night. Thielbar has saved the Twins bullpen in recent years after being on the brink of retirement. He's worked with Driveline in recent offseasons to move his fastball velocity from 89.8 mph to 93.0 mph during the 2023 season. He's added a sweeper that has limited batters to a .222 SLG, and his curveball generates whiffs over 30% of the time. As a southpaw, he has dominated against left-handed batters this year by holding them to a .356 OPS in over 45 plate appearances. The Twins can't use him strictly against lefties in the playoffs, so seeing how he is deployed will be interesting. Middle Relief: Emilio Pagan, Louie Varland Many fans were ready for the Twins to DFA Pagan earlier this season, but he's settled into one of the team's most reliable arms. His 3.17 ERA is the third lowest of his career and his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Pagan ranks third among Twins relievers in fWAR behind Duran and Jax. Pagan will be asked to get essential outs in the middle innings in the playoffs, and that's a scenario few would have imagined. Varland has only made a limited number of relief appearances after shifting to the role recently. However, he has been electric out of the bullpen with a triple-digit fastball and an improved cutter that can be a weapon against righties and lefties, including a 46% Swing%. His relief appearances haven't been perfect, but the Twins will need him to have a successful October. Injury Enforcements: Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack Stewart was one of the Twins' best relievers during the 2023 season before an arm injury forced him to the IL. There have been some setbacks along the way, but his most recent rehab saw his velocity in the high 90s, so there is hope he can help the postseason bullpen. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins added him to the bullpen mix last weekend. He got a lot of swings and misses during his rehab appearances, including hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball. There is potential for him to be a bullpen weapon in October that other teams need to prepare to face. Shifting Starters: Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel Maeda has a solid argument to be the team's number-three starter in the postseason, but Joe Ryan is also in the conversation. Before joining the Twins, Maeda was used by the Dodgers in a relief role for multiple postseason runs. The current version of Maeda is very different from the dominant postseason arm. Keuchel has made multiple relief appearances for the Twins, but he's been used in a piggyback role, which isn't optimal for October. It isn't likely for Keuchel to see time on the mound in October unless there are some injuries. Rookie Wild Card: Kody Funderburk Funderburk has been one of the organization's best relief prospects over the last two seasons. The Twins waited until late in the season to give him his first taste of the big leagues, so it will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity in October. Break Glass In Case of Emergency: Dylan Floro, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, Cole Sands Something went wrong if the team asked any of these players to pitch significant innings in October. Injuries can always play a factor, but most of this group has moved up and down from Triple-A throughout the season. Minnesota's front office bet on the arms in the organization by not making a trade for relief help at the deadline. That faith will result in the best version of the club's bullpen so far this year, and it's happening at the perfect time. How do you feel the bullpen stacks up entering October? Do you have faith in the group covering the late innings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Caleb Thielbar thought he had thrown his last pitch and was ready to start coaching. Instead, the Twins called him, and he’s saved the team’s bullpen over the last four seasons. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Caleb Thielbar spent four straight seasons pitching in the minor leagues for three different organizations. His last big-league appearance had been a brief one with the Twins in 2015, and teams weren’t giving him a chance even with some strong numbers in the upper minors. Thielbar decided the 2019 season would be his last, and he accepted a pitching coach position at Augustana University in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Instead, the Twins gave him one final chance, and it has altered the team’s bullpen for nearly half a decade. Minnesota added Thielbar for the 2020 season in hopes he could make the Opening Day roster. The pandemic impacted the entire season, but Thielbar performed well during the shortened campaign. In 20 innings, he posted a 2.25 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Thielbar proved he still had something left in the tank, but he also decided to find new ways to improve himself during the offseason. Thielbar has worked on his pitching mechanics and added 20 pounds to his frame over the last two seasons. Thielbar has been a regular at Driveline since 2017 to work on his mechanics and add a sweeper. His sweeper is now his second most used pitch, and he’s held batters to a .111 BA and .222 SLG versus this pitch in 2023. His fastball has also gained velocity over the last four seasons, moving from 89.8 mph in 2020 to 93.0 mph this season. Thielbar’s curveball has also been a wipe-out pitch by generating whiffs over 30% of the time. Thielbar has been elite against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .140/.140/.233 (.372) with 11 strikeouts in 43 plate appearances. Righties have posted a .788 against him, slightly higher than the league average. However, he has more strikeouts (17) than hits allowed versus right-handed hitters. Thielbar has surrendered four home runs against righties, with two coming in back-to-back games near the end of August. Since then, he has tossed eight straight scoreless appearances by only allowing two hits. Since 2020, Thielbar ranks 24th among AL relievers in fWAR, the top ranking among Twins pitchers. Former Twins closer Taylor Rogers is one spot ahead of Thielbar, with current Twins reliever Dylan Floro ranking 18th. WAR can be a challenging measurement for relievers since it is a counting stat, and relievers work in small sample sizes. Win Probability Added can also point to solid performances out of the bullpen. Over the last four seasons, Thielbar ranks 20th among relievers in WPA, with Jhoan Duran (8th) being the lone Twins reliever ahead of Thielbar. Thielbar’s 2023 season is among the best in Twins’ history. Three relievers (Joe Nathan, Al Worthington, and Dean Chance) are the only pitchers in team history to throw more innings with a lower ERA than Thielbar. Nathan had multiple seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA on his way to being one of the best relievers in team history. Worthington didn’t pitch for the Twins until his late 30s but became a strong closer for some of the best teams in Minnesota history. Chance was a two-time All-Star and a starter on Twins teams in the late 1960s. That is quite the company for Thielbar, a reliever in his late 30s who was on the brink of retiring. Even with his age, Thielbar spent so much time in the minor leagues that he is still arbitration-eligible for one more season. Minnesota will likely bring him back for one more season to see what he has left in the tank for his age-37 season. The Twins front office hasn’t spent a lot of resources investing in the bullpen, but coaxing Thielbar out of retirement has been one of the most valuable acquisitions in recent years. What are your impressions of Thielbar over the last four seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins waited and waited to bring up Kody Funderburk from St. Paul. He’s looked capable in his brief debut so far, and it’s worth digging beyond his surface numbers to date. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily Through five outings and 5 1/3 innings, Kody Funderburk has a 1.69 ERA and has struck out one-third of the hitters he’s faced. The only blemish was a poorly-timed homer allowed against Cleveland. The Twins are surely hoping that they have an emerging piece of the current and future bullpen. So far so good. Funderburk was thrust into enough leverage in his MLB debut to pitch two innings en route to a win against Cleveland. Two days later, he entered in a huge spot and allowed a backbreaking three-run homer, though only one run was charged to him. On Wednesday, he came into a one-run game with two runners on and no outs and shut down Cleveland once more. Rocco Baldelli clearly trusts him, perhaps out of necessity. It’s an interesting development considering the front offices' refusal to call him up to the MLB roster until it was absolutely necessary, regardless of how well he pitched. At the deadline, the Twins declined to meaningfully upgrade the bullpen. Their lone acquisition Dylan Floro has been just as unreliable as the fringe MLB relievers they chose to roster all season such as Cole Sands and Josh Winder. Even Duran and Jax have struggled mightily in recent weeks. The front office waited until they had no choice but to call up Funderburk, who had been absolutely dominant in St. Paul all season. Based on Funderburk’s usage, it seems as though Baldelli had been waiting on those reinforcements for a long time. Can he continue with the success he’s shown in a small sample? The small sample of Funderburk’s pitch mix is interesting so far. His slider has been dominant, drawing whiffs nearly half of the time it’s thrown. It has a hilarious .008 xBA and .024 xSLG so far, a truly dominant pitch. On the polar opposite end, the four-seam has allowed a .345 xBA and .791 xSLG. It could be skewed by the one homer allowed in 31 pitches, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on. We’ve seen pitchers such as Josh Winder come up and have fastballs that get consistently crushed. Not being able to ever throw a fastball makes life hard as a pitcher. Unlike Winder, Funderburk has a backup plan. His sinker is oddly two ticks harder than the four-seam and has allowed a .131 xBA and .144 xSLG in addition to a 4-degree launch angle. Hopefully, the four-seam can come around to provide Funderburk with some whiffs, but if not, it appears he has the ability to make batters pound the ball into the ground and avoid major damage. Sinkers can sometimes be used to limit platoon splits as well. Funderburk looks like he could be more than a lefty specialist. His slider is effective regardless of the handedness of opposing hitters, and his two different fastballs give him the ability to adjust as he acclimates to the MLB level. At this point, the question is likely whether Funderburk has time to earn a postseason roster spot rather than whether he’ll stick around in the majors through the season. Kody Funderburk’s debut was long awaited, but it appears he’s ready to make an impact now that he’s up. With Caleb Thielbar as the only other lefty in the bullpen, Funderburk has the chance to help the Twins through September and hopefully even October. Not to mention being a potential piece in 2024. The wait was worth it. View full article

The Twins have started to build a cushion in the AL Central, and the division is there for the taking. Here are three players who are X-factors for the club in the stretch run. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Fans were frustrated when the Twins didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. However, the front office had three succinct messages to reporters, including Minnesota’s performance was tied to the players already in the locker room. There is some truth to that message, but there are players that can push the team to even greater success in the season’s final weeks. MLB.com identified seven X-factors on playoff-contending teams that were quieter at the trade deadline. Some contending teams made deadline moves and have gone into a tailspin since the deadline. Other teams, like the Twins, didn’t make significant moves and will rely on internal improvements. Here are three Twins players that are X-factors for the stretch run. Carlos Correa, SS X-Factor: Can he replicate last season’s hot finish? Preseason projections placed Correa among the AL’s best in WAR with players like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. His first half was so poor that Jayson Stark put Correa in the conversation for the AL’s least-valuable player. The Twins have tried moving Correa to different spots in the line-up, but it hasn’t led to consistent offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Correa ranks 11th on the Twins in WAR for position players, which is a far cry from the top of the American League. Last season, Correa had some ups and downs during his first year with the Twins before finding his swing late in the season. In September, he hit .355/.412/.589 (1.001) with eight doubles and seven home runs. Unfortunately, the rest of the Twins’ roster was imploding around him, and the team lost the division title. Correa expressed some frustration over the weekend when talking to reporters about his poor performance. The Twins need him to perform closer to his career totals, especially if the team makes the playoffs. Max Kepler, OF X-Factor: Can he continue to surpass his offensive expectations? During the offseason, it seemed likely for the Twins to trade Kepler, especially after the club signed Joey Gallo. The team’s depth chart was filled with younger options than Kepler that were left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Minnesota valued Kepler more than the offers they received, so they kept him on the roster, hoping he lived up to their expectations. Fans grew frustrated while Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner spent much of the season producing at a high level at Triple-A. Over his last 30 games, Kepler seems to have put it together at the plate. He’s hit .300/.345/.573 (.917) with six doubles and eight home runs while taking over the team lead in home runs. He’s come up with some big hits in important games while posting a 1.08 WPA during his recent hot streak. Minnesota never expected Kepler to carry the team’s offense, but he can be a threat in the back half of the line-up that helps the team down the stretch. Caleb Thielbar, RP X-Factor: Can he regain his dominant set-up form? The Twins didn’t acquire any relief help at the trade deadline, which will put even more pressure on the arms in the room. Thielbar has missed a large chunk of the season with an oblique injury. He tried to return from the injury in early June, but he might have rushed back too soon because he quickly reinjured himself. Over the last three seasons, Thielbar has posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 157 innings. It’s clear that he has been one of the team’s top relief options, especially in late-inning situations. Teams rarely use every arm in the bullpen in the playoffs, making the late-inning options even more important. The Twins also don’t have many left-handed relief options outside of Thielbar. Jovani Moran struggled mightily in recent weeks before being demoted to Triple-A in favor of Brent Headrick. Minnesota will need Thielbar to get some critical outs versus left-handed batters that might decide whether or not the Twins win the division. Which X-factor is most important to the team’s success? Are there other X-factors on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Coming into the 2023 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins front office had made a plethora of moves to help the roster. They largely ignored the bullpen though, and then doubled down with that mistake at the trade deadline. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports This winter, everyone saw the Carlos Correa saga play out. They landed Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. Joey Gallo got a change of scenery, and Christian Vazquez would start behind the plate. Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor looked like solid complimentary pieces, and Rocco Baldelli had plenty of healthy talent returning from 2022. The bullpen, however, had no additions. As they have done routinely throughout their tenure leading the organization, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine punted on the bullpen. They made a few waiver claims and had Danny Coulombe and Jeff Hoffman in on minor-league deals. Despite both arms looking good through spring training, the insistence of rostering Cole Sands as a long man won out and had them both out of the organization by Opening Day. Fast forward to where we are now, and those decisions look poor. Despite spending most of July with Minnesota, Sands recorded just five outs, relegated almost entirely to mop-up duty. He went an entire week on the roster, during a significant daily game stretch, without being used. Coulombe has a 2.92 ERA with the Orioles, and Hoffman owns a 2.51 ERA for the Phillies. With the trade deadline looming outside of a right-handed bat, nothing was more obvious to add than bullpen help. It was an opportunity for the front office to right their previous wrong. They needed to give Jhoan Duran some help. Griffin Jax had crazy usage, and Caleb Thielbar had just returned from the injured list for the second time dealing with an oblique issue. They did nothing and accepted the failure of the Jorge Lopez trade with Baltimore, sending him to Miami for Dylan Floro in hopes a change of scenery could suit both players. For months we had heard a similar refrain from the front office, and it often comes to the tune of players in the clubhouse being talented enough to get it done. That is fair when looking at an underperforming lineup. Considering the bullpen, though, doing nothing for that group is a slap in the face. Not only has Duran underwhelmed during July, but it came out on deadline day that Brock Stewart (who also was acquired through a minor league deal) had a setback with his arm, and the timetable for his return is unknown. Thielbar is no sure bet to stay healthy; from there, it's a bunch of dice rolls. Floro is an upgrade over the version of Lopez Minnesota employed, but his improved production relies on the peripherals playing better. Emilio Pagan has been solid this year but is less than 12 months removed from being an absolute disaster. Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder are both failed starters with little-to-no track record, and Jovani Moran looks every bit the command mess his numbers suggest he is. The front office failed to show up for Baldelli and his group of relievers that could've used their help. Acquiring relief arms is not rocket science, and while a lefty made sense for Minnesota, anyone performing at a relatively positive level with a pulse should've been an option. They were never going to spring for Aroldis Chapman, but plenty of possibilities were available. To do nothing is simply unacceptable. The Chicago White Sox highlighted the perils of trying to buy a bullpen. Grabbing Kendall Graveman, Liam Hendriks, Joey Kelly, and Craig Kimbrel in the same stretch still didn't save them. No one asked the Twins' front office to plop down Edwin Diaz-money on relief arms, but with $5 million or a mid-level prospect enough to move the needle, they chose neither. When the dust settles on this season, the Twins will have to win the division if the front office wants to save face. Only Cleveland represents a threat, and it remains to be seen if even they are trying. Ending the 0-for-18 postseason stretch has to happen, and winning a series would be nice. No matter what happens from a results standpoint, consistently ignoring the bullpen is a broken process. View full article

For a second consecutive start, Joe Ryan struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark, and the Cardinals scored seven runs on nine hits against him to put the game out of reach early. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 4.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (103 pitches, 66 strikes, 64%) Home Runs: Matt Wallner (6) Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-.345), Edouard Julien (-.066), Kyle Farmer / Christian Vazquez (-.028) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Ryan gets punished by the long ball early With two days off since his last time out, Joe Ryan had a full week to regroup after his rough outing against the Mariners, in which he gave up four runs and failed to complete four innings. Rocco Baldelli stood by him after that start. He spoke to Twins Radio before today’s game, saying how he believes Ryan is perfectly capable of relying less on his fastball and a bit more on his secondary offerings. "I have complete faith in Joe Ryan and the way that he can go out there and miss bats and get outs," Baldelli said before tonight’s game. "He's going to swing upward from where he's at right now. That's the way I feel about it." Having the support of your manager is essential, but it ultimately isn’t enough by itself. Ryan came to tonight’s game throwing his four-seamer 61% of the time through the first three innings, slightly above his season average of 57.5%. The Cardinals hitters clearly prepared for that, and the outcome couldn’t have been more disastrous for the Twins' talented young starter. After a long -- but scoreless -- first inning, the St. Louis lineup feasted off Ryan in the following two innings. Joe gave up three home runs in the second, including a two-run rocket to deep center by Lars Nootbaar that gave the Cardinals a comfortable 4-0 lead. With St. Louis’ starter Dakota Hudson having a phenomenal start to this game and mercilessly dominating the Twins’ offense, Ryan was on his own, too. The third inning wasn’t any easier for Ryan. He gave up a leadoff double to Nolan Arenado and a single to Wilson Contreras next. Then, it was Alec Burleson’s turn to punish his four-seamer, crushing it to the corner right for a three-run shot to make it 7-0 Cardinals. Ryan came back for the fourth and struck out three to end another tough start for him. He managed 12 outs on 103 pitches a week after needing 95 pitches for 11 outs. He has now allowed 37 earned runs in his last nine starts (6.89 ERA) and has thrown four or fewer innings in back-to-back starts for the first time in his big-league career. The offense gets no-hit through five-plus As much as Ryan’s outing was painful to watch, trust me, watching the offense tonight was excruciating. Twins hitters couldn’t get Hudson to break out a sweat for most of this game, putting up awful at-bats. The Cardinals starter took a no-hitter into the sixth, and his pitch count didn’t hit 70 until the seventh. But it was precisely in the seventh that Hudson seemed to start running out of gas. After Édouard Julien struck out on five pitches to lead off the inning, Jorge Polanco had a crucial 11-pitch at-bat -- seemingly the first quality at-bat by a Minnesota hitter all night. Though Polanco struck out, Hudson started to struggle after that at-bat: Max Kepler drew a five-pitch walk, and Kyle Farmer got hit by a pitch next. Then, Matt Wallner stepped up to the plate and smacked a three-run shot to deep center to put Minnesota on the board. Josh Winder came into the game to eat up innings after Ryan’s shortened inning, and he was brilliant for three innings -- his fifth multi-inning outing this season --, keeping alive Minnesota’s slight chances for a comeback. Following Wallner’s home run in the seventh, hopes went up again for the Twins when Joey Gallo led off the eighth with a single. But those hopes were short-lived, as Michael A. Taylor grounded into a force out and Julien grounded into an inning-ending double play later one, Minnesota’s third of the night. Caleb Thielbar made his first big-league appearance since early June by tossing a scoreless eighth and lowering his season ERA now to 1.59. Then, Donovan Solano hit a one-out single in the ninth, with Farmer and Wallner set to hit after him. Hopes for a rally were reignited for a second, but both of them struck out to end it. Postgame interview SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Winder 40 0 0 0 36 76 Jax 0 22 0 14 0 36 Balazovic 33 0 0 0 0 33 Pagán 0 6 0 16 0 22 Durán 0 0 0 14 0 14 Morán 11 0 0 0 0 11 Floro 0 11 0 0 0 11 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 11 11 View full article

The Twins needed to find some bullpen depth when Brock Stewart went down. While the bullpen overall has pulled its weight, Jordan Balazovic may be the most noteworthy development in recent weeks. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports It seemed disaster was around the corner when the Twins lost Brock Stewart to injury before the all-star break. The resurgent flame thrower had become the Twins fireman to complement Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, and was arguably pitching better than either of them with Caleb Thielbar on the IL and Jorge Lopez not living up to expectations. The Twins were seemingly left with two reliable bullpen arms and a whole lot of questions. Emilio Pagan certainly deserves his praise, but Jordan Balazovic’s performance may be the most encouraging for the future of the Twins bullpen. Jordan Balazovic so far has posted a 2.93 ERA on the season. While his peripherals indicate regression is coming, his xERA is in the perfectly acceptable mid-3s. His FIP and xFIP are in the high 4s to mid 5s range, but they're being skewed quite a bit by his most recent outing where the Mariners put together two great at-bats, not chasing well-executed pitches to work walks before Dylan Moore ambushed Balazovic on a 95 mph fastball at the top of the zone. The stuff looked good despite the disappointing outcome. On Monday night, the Twins bullpen was depleted after having to use Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax on consecutive days. Balazovic was thrust into his first high-leverage opportunity. Facing the heart of the Mariners lineup, Balazovic stranded a runner at third base to preserve the lead. While Jax would allow a go-ahead homer in the ninth, Balazovic had himself set up for his first Major League hold. Despite it looking like Balazovic could be headed in the wrong direction by the numbers, it’s very possible he can stave off regression with some further adjusting. The Twins did Balazovic no favors when it comes to his MLB debut. He had spent his season in St. Paul as a long reliever before injuries forced him onto the Twins roster where he filled a single-inning role. It’s a completely different style of pitching, and now that he’s been fully transitioned to a one-inning relief role, it should be expected that he’ll adjust as he settles in. A big reason the underlying numbers aren’t big fans of Balazovic is the lack of strikeouts thus far. He hasn’t shown a lack of whiffs in the minors since 2017 and had struck out 31.1% of hitters in St. Paul this season before his call-up. It may take some playing around, but Balazovic should have the tools to collect punchouts at an acceptable rate. His mid-90s fastball paired with a slider that’s posted a 118 Stuff+ alone should collect more whiffs long-term, and he’s rarely used his changeup despite it posting a 37.5% whiff rate having only been thrown 17 times. For a starter-turned-long reliever-turned-traditional reliever all in the same season, things could be going worse for Jordan Balazovic, and he’s been a cog in a bullpen machine that could have easily misfired regularly while missing multiple important pieces. When some of the injured arms return or the Twins go out and acquire help at the deadline, Balazovic will be pushed back down into lower leverage. As long as the walks stay down, Balazovic has shown that he deserves a spot as at least a functional middle reliever, and given his prospect pedigree as a starter, it’s fair to imagine that there’s much more he has to offer over the next 6+ years of team control. With their backs against the wall, the Twins bullpen has held it’s own, and Jordan Balazovic has been a pleasantly surprising reason why. Can he parlay his fill-in performance into a bigger bullpen role in the next few years? View full article