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The Twins have an influx of infielders and need to replace Emilio Pagan. Could Kyle Farmer be the answer? View full video

The hot stove is heating up, and players are available on the trade block for the right price. How much trust should we place in the Twins trading prospects for MLB talent? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Steven Cruz) No team wins every trade, but competitive teams typically win more than they lose. Teams that can leverage offseason trades, instead of free agency, to fill out their roster are often rewarded with less monetarily expensive players, which can benefit a team like the Twins, whose payroll going into 2024 is uncertain. To aid you in determining how much faith to put in the current Twins front office, I have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 in which the Twins traded away a prospect for a ready-made MLB player. You can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a "Buy" over the offseason. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst. 2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota. For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa but came back as a minor-league free agent and debuted with Minnesota in 2022. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot. 3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR) from Kansas City for Evan Sisk (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz (12.2 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota. Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove centerfielder performed as expected defensively and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz debuted for Kansas City in 2023, and Sisk finished the year at AAA. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (369 PA, 98 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (13.2 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +1.8 bWAR for Minnesota. Without a starting-caliber shortstop (before the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He was tendered a contract for 2024. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade - he had just been added to the 40-man roster - but has since thrown 13 mediocre innings, getting his first taste of MLB in 2023. 1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Christian Jimenez (has not reached Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is an 18-year-old in Rookie ball, so we’re several years from knowing if the trade was an unforced error. 3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (33.1 IP, 114 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil had a promising short run in 2021 but is recovering from Tommy John. Overall WAR added: 18.0 Overall, the Twins have successfully bought over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop, but given the group of prospects traded away, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway. View full article

Friday night was the non-tender deadline and the Minnesota Twins made a couple of moves that surprised me. With news of the payroll being scaled back some, I figured Kyle Farmer was as good as gone either by trade or non-tender. Nope, he's still around. Another surprise was that Jovani Moran needs Tommy John surgery and so the Twins decided to remove him (and Ronny Henriquez) off the 40-man roster. Here is my reaction to these moves. View full video

By Friday at 7:00 pm, MLB teams will need to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2024. The Twins have already made their official decision on two arbitration-eligible players and have to make their decisions on seven more players. And those decisions come with several question marks. (Article updated Friday, 7:40 pm after roster decisions announced) Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Article Update (7:40 pm): On Friday night, the Twins announced that they have tendered 2024 contracts to all seven arbitration-eligible players. It was also announced the Jovani Moran is expected to be having Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the 2024 season. The Twins are trying to get him to sign a two-year minor league deal. In addition, the Twins did not tender a 2024 contract to RHP Ronny Henriquez. With Moran and Henriquez coming off of the 40-man roster, the roster is now at 36 players. There are 17 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins had nine players on their roster that were arbitration-eligible. Since then, the Twins made quick decisions on two of them. Soon after their playoff run concluded, Jordan Luplow and Jose De Leon were designated for assignment and became free agents. That leaves seven players that the Twins still need to make decisions about their 2024 status. Below, I will run through these seven players and make some notes on each. Several of them may involve answering some difficult questions. A few are pretty easy decisions. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss these decisions in the Forum below. Also, generally-speaking not many pre-arbitration players are non-tendered, but it has happened. We aren't going to try to project which, if any, of those players will be non-tendered on Friday. (Players sorted by MLB Trade Rumors Projections) 2B/OF Nick Gordon Service Time: 2.136 (two years, 136 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: If this decision had to be made after Gordon’s 2022 breakout season, it would have been simple. However, Gordon’s 2023 season started out very slow, but just when he started playing well, he broke his leg and was out the remainder of the season. However, he was an impressive teammate and cheerleader for the team in October! Potential 2024 Role: Gordon can play second base and performed well in left field and centerfield over the previous year. In a pinch, he can play shortstop and third base as well. He could be the left-handed side of platoons or a more traditional utility player, capable of playing at least five positions if needed. With the emergence of Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis, and the likes of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee potentially ready in the near future, playing time may be more and more limited. Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Prediction: The dollars are low and Gordon should have value to teams, including the Twins. I would predict that he will be tendered a 2024 contract, although I would think that the Twins front office might be looking to trade him to a team looking for a solid utility option. A trade could happen before Friday’s deadline, or anytime after Friday (assuming he is tendered). RHP Jorge Alcala Service Time: 4.014 (four years, 14 days) Arbitration Year: 2 of 3 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After pitching just twice in 2022, Alcala made the 2023 opening day roster. However, after 10 games and 15 innings, he went on the Injured List in mid-May and didn’t return until the final game of the season. However, in that game, he was displaying a fastball between 97 and 99 and a sharp slider. Potential 2024 Role: The “potential” for Alcala has been the same each of the past five offseasons. When healthy, he has a big fastball and quality secondaries that are inconsistent but have big… potential. He has the potential and talent to be the top set up man, joining Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart in getting the ball to Jhoan Duran. I’d like to see what he can do in a fully healthy season. Biggest Question Mark: Health. That’s it. Yeah, he can work on pitches too and become more consistent, but the only way to do that is to stay healthy and get the innings. Prediction: This should be a very easy decision. The Twins should absolutely tender him a contract. If it’s $1 million, that’s fine. A year ago, he avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $790,000 deal, just $70K over league minimum. With his limited pitching the last couple of seasons, I would think he would happily sign a one-year, $900,000 deal, or something in that range. Sure, the team can still look to trade him if someone sends a quality prospect. However, Alcala hasn’t been optioned in the past, so he’s got three years worth of options remaining which might allow him to work on things and get innings if he’s not with the Twins. 1B Alex Kirilloff Service Time: 2.141 (two years, 141 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 26 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.7 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Because of ongoing wrist pain, Kirilloff’s 2022 season ended after just 45 games. He had a surgery which involved shaving bones in his wrist to help alleviate the pain. The Twins brought him back slowly early in the 2023 season. He missed some time, but generally speaking, his wrist was not an issue. He played in 88 games and posted a .793 OPS with 14 doubles and 11 homers. He struggled in the playoffs and was removed from the roster in the ALDS series against the Astros due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery shortly after the Twins playoff run came to an end. Potential 2024 Role: When healthy, Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. While his surgery turned out to be much more minor than feared, he could still miss some time early in the season. When he’s healthy, he is potentially an All Star bat. Can he still reach that level? Biggest Question Mark: That is the question. He will get healthy in time, though that has certainly become his biggest issue so far. He was pretty strictly platooned in 2023 due to some horrific numbers versus southpaws. Can he put up decent-enough numbers against same-siders to be an everyday player? Prediction: Easy decision. He will be tendered a contract. Can they negotiate a deal with him and his agent (Boras) to sign a deal for below the projection? Maybe. C Ryan Jeffers Service Time: 3.089 (three years, 89 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 3 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $2.3 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After hitting a combined .203/.277/.384 (.661) in 152 games between 2021 and 2022, the Twins brought in veteran backstop Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal. Early in the season, Vazquez was playing approximately two out of three games. However, Jeffers started playing much better behind the plate and at the plate. In 96 games, he hit .276/.369/.490 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 home runs. His OPS+ was 134! The Twins played six playoff games in 2023. Jeffers caught all six of them. Potential 2024 Role: Aside from “normal” catcher bumps, bruises and pain, Vazquez and Jeffers remained healthy throughout the 2023 season. The two should continue to split time, with Jeffers getting the start in two out of three games. If he’s hitting like he did in 2023, he could get more DH opportunities too. Biggest Question Mark: He’s a catcher. That alone comes with inherent risks of injury. That shouldn’t be a consideration in this discussion. So the big question for Jeffers in 2024 will be if he can replicate his 2023 success as opposed to revert to his 2021 and 2022 levels. Prediction: Another easy decision. In fact, these two sides should spend time this offseason working on a four or five year deal to keep him in a Twins uniform for a long time. LHP Caleb Thielbar Service Time: 5.131 (five years, 131 days) Arbitration Year: 3 of 3 Age in 2024: 37 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Since returning to the Twins before the 2020 season, Thielbar has been remarkably consistent, and remarkably effective as a setup man for the Twins. 2023 was the first time in his career that he missed significant time due to injury. He strained his oblique, probably came back too quickly, strained it again and then took longer to return the second time. So, he only pitched in 36 games, but in his 30 2/3 innings, he had 36 strikeouts and just six walks. For the first time since his 2013 rookie season, he had a WHIP of under 1.00. Potential 2024 Role: More of the same from Thielbar. Yes, he will be 37, but he hasn’t lost velocity, and his curveball continues to be a great pitch. He should continue to get crucial spots anywhere from the sixth through ninth innings. He can also continue to be a mentor in the bullpen. Biggest Question Mark: Can he stay healthy throughout most of the season? And obviously can he remain effective for another year? And on some level, how much longer does he want to continue pitching? Prediction: Sure, there are questions, but this is another easy decision for the Twins’ brass. Thielbar will be tendered a contract for 2024. And I would like to see the two sides come together and discuss a longer-term deal. Maybe it’s a series of options. $3 million for 2024, then an option for 2025 at $3 million that vests with 50 innings. If he is between 40 and 49 2/3 innings in 2024, the option vests at $2.5 million. If he’s under 40 innings, there could be a club option at $2 million but if they decline it, there could be a player option at $1.5 million. And, of course, Thielbar would have the right to retire at any point. The lawyers could get involved to creatively work through a one-year deal with a couple of options that would keep Thielbar pitching for his hometown team until he retires. UT Willi Castro Service Time: 4.017 (4 years, 17 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 2 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.2 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Following the 2022 season, Castro had accumulated just over three years of service time with the Tigers. He was projected to make $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, so Detroit non-tendered him. The Twins pursued him aggressively and he quickly signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in which he would make $1.8 million if he was with the Twins all season. Because of injuries and more, Castro made the Twins Opening Day roster, and after not playing for the first several games, he found a way to spend the entire season as a very valuable role player with the Twins. He was fantastic defensively at three infield positions. He did a nice job filling in left and center field as well. In his parts of four seasons with the Tigers, he accumulated 0.4 bWAR. In 124 games with the Twins in 2023, Castro ranked third among Twins hitters with 2.6 bWAR. He played strong defense. He hit .257/.339/.411 (.750) with 32 extra base hits. He stole 33 bases in 38 attempts, an element the Twins haven’t had for a long time. Potential 2024 Role: His role in 2024 should be very similar to what it was in 2023. He can play three to five times per week all over the diamond. The fact that he is a switch hitter allows him to give guys off at different spots regardless of that day’s starting pitcher. Biggest Question Mark: He was well worth the $1.8 million in 2023, and we can all picture him continuing to be valuable, but his 2023 production was significantly better than it had been the two previous seasons when he played over 110 games. Won’t the real Willi Castro please stand up? And, how does the front office see the combination of Castro and Gordon in the organization? Can they both be on the roster and provide value? Castro is a year younger. Prediction: This is really the first one where I’ve had to think about how much I buy into Willi Castro’s 2023 season. That said, I think the Twins will tender him a contract, try to come up with a little lower than projected number, and use his switch-hitting and defensive versatility in 2024. IF Kyle Farmer Service Time: 5.129 (five years, 129 days) Arbitration Year: 3 or 3 Age in 2024: 33 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $6.6 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Farmer came to the Twins after the 2022 season from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RH RP Casey Legumina. At the time, he was technically the Twins starting shortstop. As you all know, after a long and winding road, Carlos Correa came back to the Twins which meant it was back to the bench for Farmer. That said, Rocco Baldelli kept his bench active all season. Farmer got extended time at second base early in the season when Jorge Polanco was out. He got quite a bit of time at third base in between the Jose Miranda demotion and the return of Royce Lewis. And late in the year, he played shortstop most every day when Correa was resting his plantar fasciitis. In between, he was a platoon player, often splitting time with, and mentoring, Edouard Julien at second base. Solid defense around the infield. Fantastic leader and teammate. Generally mashes left-handed pitching. Took a fastball to the mouth and went through multiple surgeries. Potential 2024 Role: It would be the same general role for Farmer in 2024. Depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out this offseason, he could platoon at first and/or second base. He can pinch hit, DH, and even be that emergency catcher. Depending on health, it is likely his playing time would decrease. Biggest Question Mark: Payroll. Just what will the Twins payroll be in 2024. We know it’s going to drop, so can the Twins afford to pay a utility player over $6 million? Unfortunately that is the reality because my sense is that everyone associated with the Twins would love to bring Farmer back. Prediction: This is by far the most difficult decision for the Twins front office. As noted, if payroll remained the same, he would very likely be tendered, but with payroll down, we can’t assume that. We know his value to a big-league roster. You would hate to non-tender him and lose him for nothing. So, I don’t think they’ll do that. I do think that they will try hard to trade him for something over the next 24-36 hours, but if they can’t before Friday’s deadline, I would guess that they will tender him a contract and continue to try to deal him throughout the offseason. There are quick glimpses at the seven remaining arbitration-eligible cases that the Twins front office have to make decisions on before Friday evening. Will they tender all seven? How many do you think they will, or they should tender? Could they be looking to make a trade or two, either of these players or of some pre-arbitration players to make additional room on the roster? How many of these players should be considered for multi-year contract extensions? Feel free to discuss below. And again, check back over the next couple of days to find out what the Twins decided to do. View full article

The Twins are cutting payroll. Here are six bad impacts - and one good one. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal. What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news. The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M. Here are the six crummiest results you'll find. 1. See Ya, Sonny The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray. That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive). Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency. 2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder. With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear. 3. Desirable Duo The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs. So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return. So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen. 4. Farewell Farmer The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder. Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster. 5. Harvesting the Farm Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects. 6. Foul Up Fan Support After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS. That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources. Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it. 7. The Silver Lining is Streaming One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years. Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are reducing their payroll in 2024, but with several contracts coming off the books this offseason, they still have some room to make additions this offseason. Here's a breakdown of what the budget looks like based off the reported payroll target. View full video

In this mailbag episode, I turned to my channel members to see what was on their minds. Topics discussed include the TV contract, potential front office and coaching staff departures, the infield logjam, offseason targets, Austin Martin's future and more. View full video

Kyle Farmer provided critical depth for the Twins during the 2023 season. Looking ahead to next season, the Twins would be wise to put Farmer on the trading block. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Last winter, the Twins didn’t have a clear option at shortstop. Carlos Correa tested the free-agent waters for the second straight season, and Royce Lewis was recovering from his second ACL surgery. Minnesota needed someone to man one of baseball’s most important positions, so the club traded for Kyle Farmer. Farmer had spent the previous two seasons as a regular with the Cincinnati Reds, where he offered some defensive flexibility and occasional pop with his bat. Minnesota felt like Farmer could be a bridge player to keep shortstop warm until Lewis was ready to return. Correa’s free agency saga took many twists and turns before ending up back in Minnesota. His signing changed Farmer’s role for the 2023 campaign, but he continued to provide value. Entering the season, Farmer had an 86 OPS+ for his career, finishing the season with a career-high 97 OPS+. He missed time during the season after taking a pitch to the face that required multiple surgeries. Farmer added depth across the diamond, including playing over 200 innings at shortstop, third base, and second base. The Twins were able to use him in Baldelli's platoon system, to fill in for injured players, and he more than held his own. Overall, it was a solid 2023 season, and the Twins might have more than one reason to trade Farmer this winter. Farmer is in his final year of arbitration, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $6.6 million. To some, that might be a high salary for a bench player who doesn’t project to be in the lineup daily. For some perspective, FanGraphs has valued Famer at $11.9 million or more in each of the last three seasons, including $12.6 in 2023. Other teams will also understand his value, which might make him a hot trade commodity. There have been outstanding classes of free-agent shortstops in the last two winters. Fans might feel this is the norm, but that is far from the truth. There won’t be any names like Correa, Trea Turner, or Corey Seager on the market this winter. So, teams might look for alternative shortstop options similar to what the Twins did last winter. Farmer is under team control for a cheap one-year deal and can handle shortstop while a club waits for a younger player to take his place. The Twins also don’t need to rush into any trade involving Farmer. Last winter, the club traded Gio Urshela, and the trade return was underwhelming. Minnesota also shopped some of their corner outfield options but didn’t like the value they were getting from other clubs. It would be in the Twins’ best interest to hope for a bidding war, especially with the lackluster free-agent market. Minnesota’s infield depth chart looks relatively complete, even without Farmer. Correa should play nearly every day at shortstop, and Lewis will be next to him at the hot corner. Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien will both see time at second base, with Julien also figuring into the first base equation. Top prospect Brooks Lee finished the season at Triple-A and should be ready for a call-up by mid-season. Farmer provided a veteran leadership to the 2023 Minnesota Twins that shouldn’t be forgotten. His time with the team would have looked very different if Correa hadn’t returned to Minnesota. Instead, the Twins might be able to cash in on his final year of team control and help the club fill a different need for next season. Should the Twins trade Farmer? What is a suitable return? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins went into the 2023 Major League Baseball season with more depth than any time in recent memory. After a 2022 season in which the team fell apart due to injuries down the stretch, they looked to create internal answers. After that worked so well, does it now dictate that as standard procedure? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports A season ago, Rocco Baldelli constantly searched for warm bodies to take the field. Trying to stave off a comeback from the Cleveland Guardians, he needed pitching help and players to round out his lineup. Having depth is something that every organization strives for, but incorporating it at the highest level is something that the players bought into. Bailey Ober started at Triple-A this season despite arguably earning an Opening Day roster spot. Nick Gordon broke out in 2022 but broke his leg early in the season, but utility man Willi Castro stepped up and nearly matched Gordon's 2022 statistics. Injuries to Jorge Alcala and Jose Miranda could be withstood because of the options that Derek Falvey had put in place from the get-go. Looking to 2024, how sensible is it for the Twins to continue the same thought process moving forward? Under this front office regime, a baseline has often been established. Kyle Farmer was acquired before the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa. Sure, he could have been expanded upon, but he was also a talent capable of starting. That could also be said about Ober in the rotation, and plenty of other players over the years. With plenty of positions filled in on paper, you can bet that Falvey will be unwilling to call it good enough. Farmer and Castro are both arbitration-eligible this offseason, and their return helps to create depth in an infield that should already have Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis penned in next to Correa. Though the rotation could be rounded out with Louie Varland acting as the fifth starter, pushing him back with a Pablo Lopez-type addition would make plenty of sense. Minnesota has often shied away from spending on big arms in the bullpen. They don’t necessarily need them with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax returning, but adding to a group should be done from the top down. Caleb Thielbar is arbitration-eligible and can be retained, and Brock Stewart doesn’t hit arbitration until the 2025 season. Expecting replications of all players isn’t straightforward, and relying on internal depth doesn’t seem to be something the Twins will try. When working with depth, you often deal with unpredictable outcomes. Donovan Solano and Castro had great years. Michael A. Taylor became the primary centerfielder. Those things are significant developments, but they can’t be the expectation year-over-year. Replicating the process of having capable bodies is a must, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the same names will provide answers. We saw internal depth keep players like Julien, Ober, or Matt Wallner down until Minnesota couldn’t help it anymore. Sometimes, that causes frustration for the fan base or player, but it also wound up being necessary over the entire season. That process bore results and should be assumed as part of fact going forward. Finding a collection of selfless players when dividing playing time is a significant part of the process. Falvey found a way to incorporate depth without those players operating as threats or hired arms on one-year deals. He’ll need to find a way to work with personalities and replicate the process again for 2024. It’s undoubtedly a good thing we have seen what that success looks like. Are you okay with additional depth pushing down initial opportunities for other players? How much do you think depth saved Minnesota this season? View full article

Here’s an overview of some of the early offseason timeline and some important decisions facing the Twins over the next month or so. Among the topics discussed are a Sonny Gray qualifying offer, the team options on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer’s projected arbitration salary and prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. View full video

The Minnesota Twins finished out their 2023 regular season on Wednesday night. Although it didn’t end the way they had hoped, the season was nothing short of a resounding success. Looking toward 2024, it’s now worth wondering which players will be back. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie. Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return. Here is how I see the group shaking out: Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli. At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense. Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list. The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers. Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M) When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back. At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate. Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k) We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally. This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him. Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal. What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

In 2023, the Minnesota Twins broke the streak. This team swept a postseason series. They took the Houston Astros to four games in the ALDS. Looking back, the season was a resounding success, and it was a well-constructed roster that brought it all together. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Yes, it is I, the “Have a Freaking Offseason” guy. While the Minnesota Twins had significant uncertainty at times throughout the offseason, Derek Falvey continued to have the opportunity to declare that things weren’t done until Opening Day commenced. Carlos Correa wound up coming back. A couple of veterans were signed. Two more veterans were acquired. It seemed like the perfect storm. Despite being looked at as the runner-up in the AL Central behind the Cleveland Guardians, there was no reason to think that Minnesota wouldn’t have a chance to compete. Rocco Baldelli was ready to lead his club back to the postseason, and there was a renewed focus on the mound that we hadn’t seen in years. As the season went on, it wasn’t just the talent that continued to keep this team at the top, but very much the personalities that held serve. It was always going to be notable that Correa and Pablo Lopez joined the Twins organization from a production standpoint, but their leadership couldn’t have been more welcomed. Building depth around the roster helped from a sustaining standpoint, but it was those depth players that continued to pick up their teammates. Michael A. Taylor was constantly there for Byron Buxton. Donovan Solano and Willi Castro filled in everywhere. Kyle Farmer took the reins for Jose Miranda. Each of them were constantly ready to go, and their impact was felt far beyond the field of play. As this team won big games, accomplished feats, and dealt with adversity, they did so with a genuine appreciation for one another. The amount that this roster gelled wasn’t by mistake. It isn’t just that there wasn’t a Josh Donaldson or Lance Lynn type in the clubhouse, but the camaraderie that poured onto the field was so widely evident. Then the youth came in and added to the story. Veterans littered the roster early, and while Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner all took jobs, they were celebrated by teammates. The rookie class was a special one, and it was full of selfless individuals. Mature beyond their years, and producing beyond expectations, they were welcomed by a big league group that just wanted more to celebrate. Unfortunately the season came to an end without a World Series championship. That reality is the same for 29 teams every year, but this group accomplished plenty. When Target Field watched as the Twins went down in order against Ryan Pressly in the ninth, it wasn’t an immediate somber feeling. Sure, watching Max Kepler look at the last pitch of the season wasn’t fun, and seeing the Astros head to a seventh straight American League Championship Series isn’t ideal, but this seemed more like a “see you soon” than a “goodbye.” There will be turnover this offseason. Sonny Gray is likely going to pitch for another team, and the veterans on one-year deals won’t all be back in Minnesota. Maybe Christian Vazquez is traded, or someone on the coaching staff finds a new gig. No matter what though, the state of the franchise is in the best place it has been in quite some time. Infused with long-term answers and youth having already proven it, Minnesota baseball is again must-see action. You can bet on Target Field hosting more than two-million fans next season, and the next wave of youth includes Marco Raya, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins. The future is bright, and it’s also right now, because no one will be sleeping on this squad when spring training ends in 2024. The front office will be tasked with finding new talent again this offseason, and as much as that will matter, it is equally important they put together an organization full of guys that genuinely like each other. We saw the ultimate Twins team come together in 2023, and watching a similar group celebrate with a ring next season would be an amazing reality to live in. View full article

Pablo Lopez broke "The Streak" last week. Tonight, he was tasked with breaking the serve of the defending champions on their home turf. It was just another Pablo Day in paradise, as the Twins delivered the runs early and often. Here's how the series-evening victory went down. Image courtesy of Erik Williams, USA Today Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (105 Pitches, 69 Strikes, 66%) Home Runs: Kyle Farmer (1) Top WPA: Lopez (.261), Carlos Correa (.192), Kyle Farmer (.118) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins came into Sunday evening's matchup with the defending World Series Champion Astros looking to end the next steak: a nine-game road playoff losing skid dating back to 2004 at Yankee Stadium. The right man for the job was on the mound in streak-breaker Pablo Lopez. The Twins' resurgent offensive attack against left-handed pitching was locked and loaded, with Carlos Correa feasting on lefties in his post-season career (.937 OPS career) Kyle Farmer (1.240 OPS against lefties over the past 20 games) in particular licking their chops with Framber Valdez on the mound for the Astros Cashing In Early...and Often! The crowd at Minute Maid Park was looking to get rocking yet again Sunday night, but due to an MLB decision the roof was open and there would be no resonating echoes this evening. If that didn't dampen the crowd's excitement, the Twins offense soon did. Valdez was all over the zone to start the top of the first inning, and Donovan Solano and Royce Lewis couldn't make solid contact. Luckily Jorge Polanco let Valdez's wildness garner him a walk, and Carlos Correa sat on a curveball to give the Twins their first lead of the series at 1-0. In Game 1, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez controlled the game offensively. Tonight, Pablo Lopez took the early lead and endured a first inning that featured a lead-off bunt single by Jose Altuve and a "I thought it was gone!" fly out to right field by Yordan Alvarez. After one inning it was still 1-0 Twins. In the top of the second inning, Willi Castro ripped a single up the middle under the legs of Valdez. With the speedy Castro at first, Valdez should have paid more attention to the batter in the box, Kyle Farmer. Farmer took a first pitch sinker that didn't sink, and launched it up where fielders don't exist for a 2-run shot! 3-0 Twins! Things Settle Down, and Quiet Down Both starting pitchers won their battles in the third and fourth innings. Brilliant defense from Jeremy Pena snuffed out a potential Polanco hit, and a slick double play by Farmer and the Twins helped to keep the respective offenses at bay in the third. The Astros drew a walk and got a two-out single from Michael Brantley in the fourth to get runners at the corners and Chas McCormick up as the tying run. After getting squeezed on the strike zone throughout the inning. Lopez decided that a swinging strike three would be indisputable. Time to Blow This Game Wide Open The top of the fifth inning started with Valdez pitching to Michael A. Taylor. After he blooped his way to first base, Solano went opposite field for another single. Polanco dropped a bunt to advance the ducks on the pond, and Royce Lewis walked to load the bases with one out. Correa came to the plate with a chance to exorcise a season's worth of bases-loaded demons. And he delivered! That two-run single chased Valdez from the game, and the Astros brought in right-hander Phil Maton. On Maton's first pitch, Ryan Jeffers attempted a safety squeeze bunt. The curveball caused Jeffers to pull the bunt, Lewis was caught off third base in no man's land, and Twins Territory freaked out with every twist and turn that he took as he attempted to elude the pickle of his own making. Lewis got tagged out at home, appeared to stave off more injury to insult, and the Twins failed to score again as Farmer missed that same curveball for a swinging strike out on a full count with the bases loaded. Hopefully cashing in a few runs, but not all of the runs, wouldn't come back to bite the Twins. The Astros Have a Good Shortstop Too, but it's Pablo Day The reason the Astros allowed Correa to walk into free agency last season has a name and it's World Series MVP Jeremy Pena. Pena led off the bottom of the fifth inning with a rocket off of the top of the wall in left-center for a double. Lopez found great joy in the fact that Martin Maldonado was up next, and he retired him without allowing Pena to advance. Altuve popped up weakly to Polanco at second, and Alex Bregman swung and missed to send a pumped Pablo and the Twins into the late innings. In fact, Lopez took his shutout through seven full innings, silencing the most potent offense since the All-Star break and setting up the Twins for victory. Lewis Flies, Correa Rakes, and the Twins Add Runs No lead feels safe in Houston, and the Twins didn't let off the gas or the pinch-hitting pressure in the late innings. Correa continued to clobber the ball, driving another shot off of the wall to move Lewis to third with a double in the top of the seventh inning. After Jeffers took one for the team, Castro struck out looking at what he and most of the Twins dugout considered to be a ball. With two outs, Edouard Julien pinch hit for Farmer, and the rookie delivered with a single to right which plated Lewis, but got Correa caught out at home on a laser throw from Kyle Tucker. 6-0 Twins. Time to Bring this Series Home The Twins players and coaching staff stated over and over how much the Target Field environment helped lead them to victory in the Wild Card round. Heading home tied 1-1 in the ALDS was the goal, and it was up to Brock Stewart to take care of business in the eighth. Unfortunately for Stewart, Alvarez is a beast, and he delivered a two-run opposite-field home run to tighten the score to 6-2. This forced Rocco Baldelli's hand in the ninth, and he put in Jhoan Duran to leave no doubt that the Twins would leave Houston victorious. 1, 2, 3, ballgame. Twins Win! They head back to Target Field with a chance to win the series at home, and *Twins Territory plans to do their best to make it so. What's Next Game 3 pits Twins RHP Sonny Gray (1-0, 0.00 ERA) against Astros RHP Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00; 10-5, 4.56 ERA in regular season). First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm CDT for the next greatest sporting event in Twins history. Postgame: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Maeda 0 0 0 43 0 43 Stewart 13 0 0 0 22 35 Thielbar 4 0 0 18 0 22 Durán 13 0 0 0 7 20 Paddack 0 0 0 19 0 19 Varland 17 0 0 0 0 17 Jax 15 0 0 0 0 15 Pagán 0 0 0 14 0 14 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article