jorgenswest

Respect has nothing to do with rankings. Rankings are of little value and are a lazy way to produce written content. Instead of rankings it would be more informative to group players in tiers and describe the range of ceiling/floor outcomes. Write about their attributes that will make them successful baseball players and the work they need to do on their weaknesses. Does their value come with a large range in ceiling/floor outcomes? That is a lot more work on the writer though. It might takes weeks or months to produce that content for a group of prospects. In Culpepper’s case he was given an FV of 40+ by Fangraphs projecting as a bench player/low end regular at the time of the draft. It is the same as the value they gave several Twins last summer including Morris and Soto. All organizations have a bunch of players with a 40 or 40+ FV. It is silly to sort them into ranks and even sillier to give respect to some more than others based on a ranking. .

Jenkins will be a parallel with Chourio after another season in the minors. He needs to dominate in AA/AAA next year. Rodriguez is not in the same prospect class as Robert or Chourio. He is more similar to Singleton.

The Marlins would be wise to trade him. His injuries last year should be concerning. He was first with left elbow tightness and then the rest of the season by lumbar stress reaction. How confident are you that the return to a starter’s workload will not also bring back one of the injuries?

I do think it matters that last year was the first where he was primarily an outfielder with 80 starts across AAA and the majors. I would guess it was the first year the bulk of his time in preparation and training was in the outfield. I think that makes a difference. I would not be signing a decline phase short side platoon veteran with Martin, Keirsey and Helman in the organization with options.

Ant free agent they add has to be able to hit right handed pitching. If they can’t hit right handed pitching let’s not lock them into a roster spot for the season.

I would go with Keirsey and Martin. Martin’s defense will improve with experience in the outfield. He has the athleticism and experience will lead to better reads particularly with balls in front of him. They are less expensive and can be optioned so the insurance isn’t locked in the bench all year.

Low leverage roles in the bullpen don’t exist. Assigning the role of a long man ready to throw 50 plus pitches to a single player isn’t efficient. You can’t save that pitcher in the pen until that opportunity occurs and you don’t want them unavailable the following 3 days when the need might arise again. Instead teams use pitchers in options. It is best to build a one with multiple pitchers capable of throwing 30-50 pitches as well as be counted in higher leverage. Cole Sands was used most often early for multiple innings probably in that shuttle role. His early season effectiveness earned him higher leverage opportunities. He was still capable of throwing multiple innings. His outing with his most pitches thrown was in September. Alcala was used for multiple innings. They needed to send him down for reinforcements after a 48 pitch outing in May. He returned and pitched effectively moving up the bullpen ladder. I think this has to be the hope for Castellano. Start getting some longer outings and pitch effectively. Use the opportunity to climb the bullpen ladder. If he never moves beyond long man he won’t stay on the roster for the duration. There will be a stretch when the bullpen is depleted. He will have pitched to the point where he is unavailable the next three days. The Twins will need to make a move. If Castellano hasn’t moved up the ladder he will be the one to go.

Tommy Pham had an 93 OPS+ last year and he will be 37. Grandal allowed 66 of 72 base stealing attempts at 36. Both should be expected to decline further. I don’t buy the premise that either is bad for the clubhouse. Why does the clubhouse even matter if they have declined to the point where they are not productive on the field?

I don’t think a 22 pitcher and 18 hitter mix is out of the norm. The current 22:16 mix might simply foreshadow that two bats will be added.

Shouldn’t savings calculations factor in the replacement cost? They would need to pay the new back up catcher at least the minimum.

The Athletic list came out also. The most intriguing name to me is the lefty Webb from Cleveland who is on both. He was a minor league starter. It seems like minor league starters are more successful transitioning to relievers in the majors than minor league relievers. If he can tick up his low 90s velocity in relief they may have a steal. That would be particularly satisfying coming from the Guardians.

I think this is the first time any of the three will put on a major league uniform. At least for a moment their journeys should be appreciated and celebrated. I believe the energy that they will bring with their first opportunity in the big leagues will be a benefit to the Twins. I appreciate @Seth Stohs effort in telling us a little about their journey.

These three are positive additions to the staff.

Martin and Keirsey both played in AA in 2022 and AAA in 2023-2024. In each of those three season Martin had the better wRC+ at their common level though they were both awful in 2022. Martin is 2 years younger. I would not describe Keirsey’s wRC+ of 119 last year as fantastic. It is good. Probably in the second quartile of minor league centerfielders. The top was Cal Stevenson unless you go down to 250 PAs and find Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates. Stevenson and Keirsey have a lot in common. They both were drafted in 2018 out of the PAC12 and have similar skill sets. Cal has hit much better than DeShawn in the minors but hasn’t hit in the majors yet. Cal has been available on waivers multiple times. The Twins are willing to believe in Keirsey enough to give him a valued 40 man roster spot. I don’t think he has done anything in the minors to merit more belief. There are peers that have performed much better in the minors and yet to be successful in the majors.

In my old age my first reaction to any change is not a positive one. This won’t keep me from watching baseball though. On the positive side this rule change will give opportunity for more in game engagement about how to utilize that one golden at bat. It will likely provide more exciting moments over a season. Elite defenders may get more opportunity as teams will know they can bat for them in a key spot during the game, There is a downside though. Teams that can afford the elite game changing players are going to benefit more. The wealthy teams will have an Ohtani to use in that extra at bat. Over the course of the season that will be a great advantage. Records will be broken. Elite players may approach 800 players appearances in a season. I think it will increase the divide between the large and small market teams and that will not help. Maybe a better solution to generate more engagement and exciting moments is to allow reentry. A player reentering would need to be in the same spot in the batting order. If Larnach hits for Vazquez in the 9th spot then they can use either player in that 9th spot. Vazquez can return and they can alternate but both can’t be in the game at the same time. I think it could generate debate about how to best utilize those spots. I don’t think it increases the divide between the large and small market teams. Teams that roster wisely and deploy their players wisely should gain an advantage. It isn’t going to impact the individual single season records. It would not add time to the game unless it was decided that pitchers could reenter. We have enough injuries to pitchers as it is. Let’s not have reentry for pitchers. I prefer this solution but I still don’t like change. I will keep watching though.

Rosario’s inclusion would essentially make it a 39 man roster for much of the year and reduce his option count by 1. There is risk in putting him on the 40 man too early. The Twins will need reinforcements at time from AAA. Helman with his positional flexibility, speed and contact skills can be called on for any position other than catcher. That said… It really isn’t a choice between Helman and Rosario. They have a space for both on the 40 right now and can still DFA Helman later if it will improve the roster. I think this was all about their assessment of Rosario’s readiness to contribute in 2025.

It seems unlikely that he will stick as an up the middle of the field player. The first sign is that he did not start as a shortstop in the organization. Major league see one basemen almost always play some SS in the minors. @Cody Christie offers Pedroia as a comp but Pedroia’s primary position in AAA before he called up was SS and he started in the organization as a SS. Keaschall did have an injury that led him to DH/1B for his last month. He also had DH stretches in May of 24 and the end of his first season with the Twins. When in the field he alternated between 2B and CF with a few games at 3B. His three stretches as DH/1B as well as his moving between infield and outfield suggest that he is unlikely close to ready to be a major league 2B. Fangraphs prospect report scores his fielding at 30/45. Maybe he can get to that 45 but his defense is not knocking at the door and he will need a lot of time in AAA to develop as a 2B or CF. They didn’t give that time to Julien when his bat appeared ready. Will they follow the same path with Keaschall?

The title makes it seem like the Twins failed here. If anything it indicates to me a plan to contend and use those 40 man spots on players more likely to contribute this year. Winder outperformed his draft position. Only one pitcher drafted #214 has pitched in more games or has more career WAR. The reality is getting major league time and any positive production out of a player drafted in that range is the exception. Severino was a 2B at 17 in the Braves organization. That is a red flag that it will be hard to find a position. No speed. No glove. You have to really hit and he couldn’t cut down the strikeouts. He may break out at 28 like Rooker but no team can or should keep a guy around that long to find out. The 40 spots and eventually major league roster spots are too valuable particularly for teams planning to contend. There aren’t bench spots for a back up 1B/DH.

I agree. Build a team to contend. Sell at the all star break if it does not work out.

Thanks for the work. I don’t see how they move Paddack’s salary and then sign Turnbull. Why wouldn’t the other team sign Turnbull in the first place? Maybe they can find a team that prefers Paddack. The Dodgers did something similar last preferring Hernandez to Margot. They found a team to take on 4 million of Margot’s salary and used the 4 million to sign Hernandez. The Twins could have signed Hernandez in the first place. It would be nice if they raised the payroll a bit to sign Goldschmidt. If they aren’t contending at the all star break they should be able to move him even if he is just hitting around league average. If he is clearly above league average the return will be a bonus. If he hits well and they contend and make the playoffs the second half salary will be worth it. I would rather they avoid the veteran short side platoon outfielder this year. Let the lefties hit or sign an everyday player.

No mention of Marcelo Mayer’s injury history. He missed half of 2023 with shoulder issues and 2024 with back issues. I think the Red Sox would be wise to trade him for a good starter. I have no interest in a late blooming reliever entering his 33 year old season. Didn’t we try that last year? With velocity in the low 90s there is no space for decline.

A few thoughts on Keaschall… I am not sure he will stick at 2B. He didn’t start as a shortstop like many second basemen. They have also played him in the outfield as well as 1B and 3B. Are they trying to find a fit. If he is to stick at 2B I think he needs a near full season in AAA. It is encouraging that he is number 63 in the pipeline. That number 63 ranking is probably closer to a player ranked around 200 than a top 10 player. Go back 5-10 years of the pipeline and look at the other 63s. 2014 Zach Lee - 12 major league innings. Peaked in the ranking at #45 2015 Kevin Plawecki - 2.3 WAR across 8 major league seasons as a back up catcher. 2016 Victor Robles - 9.5 WAR across 8 major league seasons. Peaked in the rankings at #4 with thee season in top 10 2017 Dominic Smith - 0.9 WAR across 8 major league season. Peaked at #51. 2018 Heliot Ramos - 2.3 WAR in 2024 at 25 after two seasons of a combined -0.8 WAR. Four seasons on top 100 list. 2019 Griffin Canning - 4.7 WAR across 5 seasons. Looking at the 12 players in the surrounding 62 and 64 ranks you will find a greater range with several not making it at all and three that are significant players. Trea Turner followed up his #62 ranking with an #11 the next year. Julio Urias followed up his 64 ranking with a #8 and #4. Mookie Betts followed up his #62 ranking to be #14 midseason tearing up AA and AAA and spent the last third of the season in the majors. There is reason to be encouraged that Keaschall will contribute in the major leagues but it is going to take patience. Will he take a step towards the top 10? Will he be a useful player across several major league season like Plawecki? Will he need to get to his last option like Ramos? It is very unlikely that he will be a significant major league player in 2024. There is the hope of Mookie Betts who needed just 464 more minor league PAs before hitting the majors and not looking back. Betts wasn’t coming off an injury in his previous season though. I don’t see a game changing major league debut in 2025. I used baseball reference WAR for convenience of quick access to peak ranks.

They have gone from four salaries to two salaries in the top end management of the club. I wonder if they also have thinned the rest of the workforce supporting Twins baseball.

Do we know Keaschall can play 2B as well or better than Julien? He hasn’t played very much 2B in the Twins organization. He had 44 games at 2B, 24 in outfield, 13 at 1B and 2 at 3B. He also has 55 at DH but the bulk of those were after the arm trouble. It seems like most second basemen start as shortstops. Players that start at 2B often move to a corner like Yunior Severino. I haven’t seen any of Keaschall’s games in person but his use in the minors makes me wonder if he will need to move to corner. In any case if they want him to develop at 2B they should give him the bulk of the season in the minors.

His bat will play well there.