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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Other than the Guardians it was hard for me to find a team that tried to develop the left on left. They had 687 left on left plate appearances. There were a few teams ahead of the. And the Cardinals might fit. The others were more superstar driven lefties. I am sure you have reported that the Twins were 30th on this list with 194. The Guardians were second on the list last year and the Twins were 20th and reasonably close to average. They made a real effort last year to leverage that platoon but didn’t appear to get the advantage part of it.
  2. jorgenswest
    I wondered how many left handed batters were being developed. I decided to sort left handed batters by plate appearances against lefties and then try to come up with a qualifying line. My qualifying line was 502 multiplied by the ratio of left handed batters faced (~26.9%) ending up with 135 PAs. When looking at the list there is a gap from 129 to 141 so 135 fit that way also. There is also a noticeable drop in the ratio of players with a league average wRC+ in the next group of 35 players. Thirty five left handed batters qualified for the lefty on lefty title. 17 had an above average wRC+ and 17 a below average wRC+. The title winner was Jordan Alvarez. I am pretty confident the Twins would have started Alvarez against lefties. It would be the same for several others like Ohtani, Soto, Harper and Henderson. I then wondered about developing. The Guardians had three of the top 23 by PAs in Kwan, Gimenez and Naylor. Kwan was well above average, Gimenez below and Naylor just above average though probably not for his position. The Twins probably would have been batting Farmer against lefties instead of Gimenez. They probably would have limited Naylor’s at bats some also. I don’t know the Guardians motivation for playing the three so much against lefties. It may be to develop that skill. It may be to make it more difficult for teams to utilize the pen against them. Their typical line up against a lefty had Kwan batting first, Naylor batting 4th and Gimenez batting in the 6 or 7. I think splitting them up also can get that left handed pitcher off rhythm.
  3. jorgenswest
    I have to believe he has been tried at 1B in practice in college and the minors. It would be very surprising for a player who plays only corner outfield to have the skill to play 1B and never play there in college or the minors. In his first full season in the minors the Twins used 6 different players at 1B at his A ball stop and 9 in AA. They never used Larnach at 1B.
  4. jorgenswest
    It looks like there were 4 games in the last 10 against lefties with no left handed batters. They scored 8 runs in those games. Is it possible that a few left handed batters will get the left handed starter off rhythm? Maybe it doesn’t show up in the stats for the left handed batter. Maybe that disruption of rhythm shows up for the batter or two following the left handed batter. It didn’t work. It needs to be addressed. I hope it isn’t addressed with budget friendly short side platoon bats.
  5. jorgenswest
    I can tell you that August 20 and following they faced 10 left handed starters. Margot was the lead off hitter in 7 of them. In four games no left handed hitters were in the starting line up. In only one game were two left handed hitters in the starting line up. They went 0-10. If they go 5-5 they end up with 87 wins. Detroit and Kansas City made the playoffs with 86. 2024 line ups
  6. jorgenswest
    Platooning loses its effectiveness when starters are taken out mid game. It will remain ineffective short of baseball allowing re-entry. Take a look at Ryan Jeffers career line. The Twins haven’t platooned at catcher but there is a little bias towards left handed starter since he has DH’d against a lefty on occasion. Since he is a catcher he almost always plays a full game and rarely replaced by a pinch hitter. His numbers tell a story. It probably doesn’t surprise you that his OPS against left handed pitching (.832) is much better than his OPS against right handed pitching (.695). Wouldn’t it make sense to get a left handed catcher to platoon with him? They probably should limit Jeffers’ starts against a right handed pitcher. Shouldn’t they? Here is the catch. His career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher of .767 is almost 100 points better than his OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher of .677. What is going on here? Starters aren’t pitching deep into games. In games started by a right handed pitcher he is often batting in the bottom half of the lineup between two left handed batters. Relievers need to face a minimum of three batters so he probably sees a left handed pitcher or two in the second half of the game. Left handed relievers are not as strong as left handed starters and they almost certainly have more trouble against right handed batters. Jeffers feasts in those situations. The answer to roster construction is simply roster the better hitters. Strategic lineup construction is critical. Group players that have the more extreme splits from opposite sides. Want to bring in a lefty to face Wallner? That’s fine but he is also going to have to deal with Jeffers in the on deck circle. If Wallner, Larnach and Rodriguez are the best three bats for the corner outfield then they should roster those three. Alternate which one rest against a lefty and use all three in the outfield when Buxton needs a day off against a right handed starter. Don’t look for a Margot.
  7. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t think a catcher entering his age 28 season or a pitcher entering his age 26 are young. Should we be concerned that Fedducia allowed 102 stolen bases in just 70 AAA starts at catcher throwing out 20%? That is both a high volume and a low rate. The 20% is an improvement after three years in AAA where it was it was 10% and 15% the previous two years. It makes me wonder if the 28 year old has peaked. Should we be concerned that much of his value as a batter is his walk rate? With little power those walks don’t often translate well to the majors. The walk rate is also something that has improved at AAA (10%, 15%, 17%). Casparius will be 26 and is still struggling with walks. His numbers have been amazingly consistent at each stop with walk rates of 11-12%. He throws 95 so he really needs better control. We saw what a happened to Thielbar when his walk rate moved from the 5-7% range from 21-23 to 11% in 2024. He did open game 4 of the World Series so there was some trust there. I think at least one of these two will be DFA’d this year or traded for a minor prospect in order to clear 40 man space. The Twins helped the Dodgers taking Margot to free up a space for Hernandez. They could have waited until Margot was released. I wouldn’t help the Dodgers with these two players likely on the fringe of their 40 man roster. Casparias would be more interesting if the Dodgers don’t have a bullpen spot for him and need to make space on the 40 so if he were the second player in the deal paired with a top prospect it could work. They need to trade Duran for established major league ready help or trade him for prospects that are truly young and have time to grow,
  8. jorgenswest
    Honest question… I get that you don’t believe in the metric. Do you believe framing is a skill or do you believe it is a skill poorly measured by fWAR?
  9. jorgenswest
    Would this be like the Dodgers someone to take enough of Margot’s salary in order to give free agent Kiki Hernandez that salary? Margot contributed -0.9 or -0.2 *WAR last year. Hernandez contributed 1.3 or 0.7. McCann is a free agent. Why wouldn’t another team sign him rather than pay more for Vazquez? They would do it if they saw Vazquez as clearly more valuable. If the Twins have to send money then the savings would be minimal. The Twins need to go with the better player. They didn't last year. *WAR from Fangraphs and baseball reference varies. Is it fair to say that Hernandez was more valuable upon the range of 1 to 2 wins?
  10. jorgenswest
    Yes. The Twins were his 6th organization. He was released by the Cardinals, Tigers and A’s before getting a chance with the Twins.
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins have three recent first places finishes in the central. Out of sight and mind. They signed Carlos Correa to a massive contract. Out of sight and mind. They were the second most affordable place to bring a family of four to a game in 2023. Out of sign and mind. They won a playoff series and the response was disappointing future tickets sales leading into and during that playoff run. Out of sight. Out of mind.
  12. jorgenswest
    Let’s hope for a repeat of the Brian Harper story. The Twins acquired Harper at 28 as a minor league free agent. He was primarily an outfielder at this point in his minor league career catching only 10 games in the minors the previous season. They both had productive minor league bats without the big home run numbers.
  13. jorgenswest
    They were very much in my sight and mind winning the AL Central in 19, 20 and 23. They won a playoff series. According to Moneygeek they have been the second most affordable venue for a family of four to go to a Major League Baseball game.
  14. jorgenswest
    Honestly didn’t appreciate the fix. I wouldn’t put it that way for a guy who has had to fight so hard to return from devastating injuries. He had 1 WAR last year and steamer projects him for 1.4 next year. @Cory Engelhardt is probably right. Is it enough excess for the Tigers?
  15. jorgenswest
    Does Paddack have any excess value?
  16. jorgenswest
    Carew’s seven steals of home in 1969. That season had some memorable moments. Oops someone got this one.
  17. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your thoughtful responses. Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs? How does the value of one year of control for Willi Castro compare to the value of a pre-arb Torkelson with an option? Castro is certainly projects to be more valuable next year but Torkelson’s upside over time is valuable.
  18. jorgenswest
    Concur. These add to my desire to do away with rankings. Speed the words writing about the player. I want to know their perceived value at the major leagues with a ceiling and floor. Tell me about their assets and deficits. Tell me about their path to this point. Tell me about how close they are to the majors. Don’t waste words debating whether someone is 8 or 12 or 16. At that point they are all probably of similar overall value but with varying mixes of skills, ceiling, readiness and heart. It is those assets that should be respected not a very fluid position on a ranking system. Think back to last winter and all that was written about SWR. There were some that wrote about his drop in ranking number about Twin prospect. There were others that wrote about his stuff+ and his hard work during the winter to improve his velocity. I want to read the second article. I don’t care that he moved from something like 8 to 19. He earns my respect based on his assets and not a number. edit: back to Kaelen. He is most valuable as a shortstop? What does he need to work on in order to be a starter at that spot in the major leagues?
  19. jorgenswest
    Respect has nothing to do with rankings. Rankings are of little value and are a lazy way to produce written content. Instead of rankings it would be more informative to group players in tiers and describe the range of ceiling/floor outcomes. Write about their attributes that will make them successful baseball players and the work they need to do on their weaknesses. Does their value come with a large range in ceiling/floor outcomes? That is a lot more work on the writer though. It might takes weeks or months to produce that content for a group of prospects. In Culpepper’s case he was given an FV of 40+ by Fangraphs projecting as a bench player/low end regular at the time of the draft. It is the same as the value they gave several Twins last summer including Morris and Soto. All organizations have a bunch of players with a 40 or 40+ FV. It is silly to sort them into ranks and even sillier to give respect to some more than others based on a ranking. .
  20. jorgenswest
    Jenkins will be a parallel with Chourio after another season in the minors. He needs to dominate in AA/AAA next year. Rodriguez is not in the same prospect class as Robert or Chourio. He is more similar to Singleton.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Marlins would be wise to trade him. His injuries last year should be concerning. He was first with left elbow tightness and then the rest of the season by lumbar stress reaction. How confident are you that the return to a starter’s workload will not also bring back one of the injuries?
  22. jorgenswest
    I do think it matters that last year was the first where he was primarily an outfielder with 80 starts across AAA and the majors. I would guess it was the first year the bulk of his time in preparation and training was in the outfield. I think that makes a difference. I would not be signing a decline phase short side platoon veteran with Martin, Keirsey and Helman in the organization with options.
  23. jorgenswest
    Ant free agent they add has to be able to hit right handed pitching. If they can’t hit right handed pitching let’s not lock them into a roster spot for the season.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would go with Keirsey and Martin. Martin’s defense will improve with experience in the outfield. He has the athleticism and experience will lead to better reads particularly with balls in front of him. They are less expensive and can be optioned so the insurance isn’t locked in the bench all year.
  25. jorgenswest
    Low leverage roles in the bullpen don’t exist. Assigning the role of a long man ready to throw 50 plus pitches to a single player isn’t efficient. You can’t save that pitcher in the pen until that opportunity occurs and you don’t want them unavailable the following 3 days when the need might arise again. Instead teams use pitchers in options. It is best to build a one with multiple pitchers capable of throwing 30-50 pitches as well as be counted in higher leverage. Cole Sands was used most often early for multiple innings probably in that shuttle role. His early season effectiveness earned him higher leverage opportunities. He was still capable of throwing multiple innings. His outing with his most pitches thrown was in September. Alcala was used for multiple innings. They needed to send him down for reinforcements after a 48 pitch outing in May. He returned and pitched effectively moving up the bullpen ladder. I think this has to be the hope for Castellano. Start getting some longer outings and pitch effectively. Use the opportunity to climb the bullpen ladder. If he never moves beyond long man he won’t stay on the roster for the duration. There will be a stretch when the bullpen is depleted. He will have pitched to the point where he is unavailable the next three days. The Twins will need to make a move. If Castellano hasn’t moved up the ladder he will be the one to go.
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