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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    There are situations where Margot is part of the best 9 on this team. I think Margot is in LF if the Twins want to end with their best defensive 9. His .328 OBP against left handed pitching is among the best on the team and probably why we have seen him lead off against lefties recently. Castro is better but they can put him at 2B against a lefty. I am not sure that Farmer is part of any best 9 once Lewis returns. I don’t think he best 9 defensively with Julien’s progress at 2B. I am not confident he is best 9 against left handed pitching with they way Castro has hit this year. Is he a better hitter against lefties than Margot? Castro can make either expendable. Is the Farmer of 2023 still there? That player is starting against lefties and pinch hitting. It may be worth sending out Julien for a reset and seeing if June brings out the Farmer that we saw last year and earned that contract. Best case is to have the depth that includes Farmer and Margot performing as we hoped,
  2. jorgenswest
    I think the struggles of Varland and Wallner are partially an indicator that they are making changes. Change is difficult and takes time. It often requires steps backward before moving forward. Drew MacPhail spoke about the work that they were doing with the two on last week’s Twins Insider. In fact if a player goes down and starts tearing up AAA, I wonder if they are working at all to make the changes necessary to get back to the majors. They may be sending Julien down to get reset. I hope to see numbers that indicate he is attacking pitching in or near the strike zone rather than taking so many strikes. That change may cause him to struggle some.
  3. jorgenswest
    Castro has started to see some second base time. Twice this week Margot has been the pinch hitter for Julien and taken Castro’s spot in left field. Castro has gone to second base with Miranda staying at third. Farmer is no longer the natural pinch hitter for Julien. Castro is trusted and his infield positions. His use has declined. May plate appearances. I excluded Martin and Buxton. Farmer 36 Vazquez 55 Margot 57 Kirilloff 63 Larnach 65 Julien 81 Miranda 91 Miranda has become an everyday player. He has more plate appearances than Santana in the last 14 days. There is space for him in the line up. They may send out Julien to get reset and start Castro at 2B. If their use is an indicator of value to the team it has to be Farmer.
  4. jorgenswest
    I could not disagree more that the Twins hitters were disinterested. They lost. The pitcher was very good. It happens.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would argue that his best years were the two in Cincinnati where he was their starting shortstop. The “league average” hitter was the illusion of his use. Scale the left/right mix to the ratio of a regular or his previous two years and he would have had about the same OPS+ as his years with the Reds. The money is spent and the Twins won’t find another team to take the contract. He will hit better and maybe close to the level he hit last year the rest of the way. He still has some value to bring to the team in his limited role.
  6. jorgenswest
    Glad to have Woods Richardson. I really think Berrios, Woods Richardson and Martin need to be tied to the Sonny Gray trade. The Twins don’t need to pay Berrios so they have a slot for Gray. They don’t make the move for Gray if they still have Berrios. Additions: Gray (2 years), SWR, Martin Cost: Berrios (1+ year) and Petty. If they had kept Berrios through his contract, I think they still have Petty. They will get a comp pick for Gray but I didn’t add that to the ledger since they would have probably got a pick for Berrios too. If they extended Berrios then I think they probably don’t give Lopez an extension and the comp pick needs to go back on the addition side of the ledger. Gray was so valuable last year that the moves were an overall win but Petty could easily out perform Woods Richardson and Martin in the end. I will acknowledge Petty’s first two months of AA this year have been a struggle.
  7. jorgenswest
    Wade is not a good outfielder even on a corner. He started two games in centerfield for the Giants. Both were in early April of his first season with the team. He did not finish either game in CF. The Giants have played him less in the outfield and more at first base to the point where he has only 5 starts in the outfield this year. I think Cave was kept because of his defense.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is his presence on the roster maddening to the point where his contributions last night can’t be appreciated? He hit two balls that had an expected batting average of .500 last night. That liner to left exited at 103 mph and he was credited with a double. That doesn’t happen if it is a weak pop up or grounder. The liner to right with a velocity of 96 was caught. He hit two liners with an xBA of around .500 and one of them falls which I guess is what should was expected. One reason to be optimistic that he will hit better the rest of the way: His current average exit velocity is at the high point of his career. One reason to be pessimistic that he will not be close to good enough the rest of the was: His strikeout/walk rate is at the low point of his career. Optimistic or pessimistic, he still is going to make contributions to the team that can be appreciated.
  9. jorgenswest
    Great job of Duran holding the ball, varying the timing and the slide step. Really perfectly executed by all three and the runner wasn’t even close to the bag when tagged.
  10. jorgenswest
    I can’t support it but I do believe that there are aspects to a catcher’s defense that are either poorly measured or not measured at all. There have been too many poor hitting catchers getting significant playing time on successful teams. The money is already committed and they can’t get it back. I don’t think they can inexpensively replace Vázquez with a catcher that would be close to his value to the team. I acknowledge that I make that statement without any ability to support it with metrics.
  11. jorgenswest
    Vazquez threw the ball exactly where he planned and the only way to get that runner out. The new rule or emphasis for 2024 is blocking the bag and Vazquez and Correa have been working on this since spring training. The Athletic reported that the conversation on the mound was to execute the play exactly as we saw. Duran, Correa and Vazquez did a fantastic job getting that out.
  12. jorgenswest
    Tonight’s win wasn’t the first he played a critical role. There are a handful of veteran catchers that haven’t hit and been critical to their team’s success. Martin Maldonado was very valuable to the Astros. They can’t get the salary money back and I don’t think he can cheaply be replaced by someone who will be more valuable to the team.
  13. jorgenswest
    Julien is a better hitter than this. He will turn it around.
  14. jorgenswest
    Prospect is an arbitrary term. It is really about players in the organization. Does Festa’s performance open up the possibility that Varland can be moved to the bullpen. Can he make an impact there? Wallner made an impact last year also. I think he will return later this year and be available part of the outfield.
  15. jorgenswest
    Honest wonders… He has over 7 years of service time. At that point can he elect to become a free agent instead of going to the minors? If someone were to add him would they pay the minimum and the Twins the rest?
  16. jorgenswest
    I wondered if Margot’s lack of value would be shown by the Twins recent use of their roster. Only one player has started fewer games and had fewer plate appearances in the last 14 days. I believe the data from BR is updated through the 25th. Margot has appeared in 11 games and started 5 with 22 plate appearances. Farmer has appeared in 8 games and started 4 with 18 plate appearances. You would hope their 6th and 8th ranked salary commitments would bring more value. Lewis’ return will reduce the need for both players as Castro can play 2B as well as the outfield. Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone is picking up either contract through waivers or a trade.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think he is more ready to contribute defensively than Castro or Martin. I could be wrong as I have only seen him on TV. It would be hard to expect Castro or Martin to be accomplished centerfielders when it never has been either players primary position for any significant length of time. I would go to Rodriguez the next time Buxton is out.
  18. jorgenswest
    More recent… Mauer played a half season of high A and half season of AA before starting in the majors in 2004. Hicks played in the majors in 2013 before playing in AAA. Sano played 66 games in AA and was promoted to the majors. Buxton played 59 games in AA and was promoted to majors. Kepler played in the majors before he played in AAA. Jeffers played in the majors after 24 games in AA the previous season. It was the COVID season though. I would give him a shot the next time Buxton goes down. His defense is ready.
  19. jorgenswest
    … and stole a base in the first inning.
  20. jorgenswest
    He was 2.76 in his larger 2022 AA sample. It seems unlikely that his skill declined from excellent to poor at age 26. It is probably the random variation due to a sample that is small. I would trust any anecdotal evidence from those with trained eyes before trusting range factor from a full or partial minor league season sample.
  21. jorgenswest
    @bean5302 prompted me to look at their career numbers so I didn’t discount it. I appreciated his post but didn’t come to the same conclusion. It still is about the only thing we have to measure range for much of the 20th century. If I saw one CF at 3 and another at 2 over a full season that is also supported by their career numbers, I would conclude the player around 3 had more range. If that split resulted in Rodriguez and Keirsey over their minor career I could be persuaded that Rodriguez had better range. They are pretty close and probably I find it inconclusive in determining the better center fielder.
  22. jorgenswest
    Is RF/9 a useful measure that teams use? How do the different ball in play contexts impact varying RF/9? What inning sample is necessary for RF/9 to be relevant? It is an opportunity stat so a pretty large sample must be necessary. For outfielders, would PO/9 be more telling of range? Assuming it is valuable here are there career RF/9 in centerfield. Keirsey 2.46 Martin 2.49 (minors only with majors it is 2.46) Rodriguez 2.53
  23. jorgenswest
    It is the ordering that prompted my original comment.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is it easier to grow from a base of contact skills with below average exit velocity or a base of high exit velocity with infrequent contact?
  25. jorgenswest
    Do you think organizations spend time and resources ranking their players? If the rankings were of any value at all they would be pretty stable. If they change as much as the recent TD top prospects after less than two months of play then they had little value to begin with.
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