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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Will the Twins Be Helped By MLB and MLBPA’s Revised Television Deal?
  2. jorgenswest
    The lighter air does help the ball travel further. It also has an impact on some pitches more than others. It is not as simple as acquire groundball pitchers. Mario DeGenz from Purple Row at SBNation did a six part series on pitching at altitude. These were his four attributes for a pitcher suited to defy the effects of altitude at Coors Field. Above average or better velocity. Supination dominant Elite extension Lower than average release point How many of those attributes are a match to Randy Dobnak?
  3. jorgenswest
    Two wild card teams made it to the World Series last year. The Rangers made several changes and gave up some very good prospects. The Mets did keep a lot of the contract in the Scherzer deal in exchange for a Rodriguez level prospect. They won the series and should have no regrets on losing Cole Ragans but he was a heavy price to pay for Chapman. They also sent three players for Montgomery. The DBacks added two relievers and a right handed batting outfielder without significantly impacting their prospect pool or budget. The door to the World Series should not be considered closed to the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    How does his defense compare to the other three? Isola has caught 1 game this year. He isn’t a catcher. Winkel has caught much more this year throwing out 13% of runners. That is half of Camargo’s AAA rate. I think Camargo is pretty different than those two. Perhaps Williams is close to Camargo. Not sure about the other critical parts of his catcher game. I guess they could pick up a Martin Maldonado or similar if an injury were to occur. I would have put Camargo on the 40 man roster. There are several on your list that I would remove before I would remove Camargo but if they need to remove that many he can go too.
  5. jorgenswest
    That is several teams with a cap of 75 million. I wouldn’t expect 15 million. I don’t think it will move the needle much.
  6. jorgenswest
    Credit to him for making the best of the option down and working to come back strong. Credit to the Twins staff for helping him get back here.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think they have 7 days to trade him or he would go to waivers. I don’t think he will make it to waivers and even if he did some team would take him with an earlier claim. What is the most you would offer in trade to get him? I would offer a player on the 40 that is a the fringe of DFA like Severino or a player that they will be making a rule 5 decision next winter like Keirsey.
  8. jorgenswest
    Boston can get so much more for Teel. His FV from Fangraphs is a 50. That is comparable to Brooks Lee but Lee is a year older and doesn’t play catcher. Jenkins for Teel and a reliever might be enough.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think it is a bad idea to sell low. I am glad we didn’t sell low on Miranda.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think they need to keep trying spots as high in the defensive spectrum as possible. If that is CF then they need to invest the necessary time to see if he can approach average.
  11. jorgenswest
    I hope Rodriguez gets healthy and is an option. I don’t think Keaschall is ready to play defensively at any postion in the majors.
  12. jorgenswest
    They also have been one of the least expensive places to see a game ranking 29th entering this year. Lower attendance and lower revenue per ticket is not going to help them compete with other teams. It was a PR mistake to announce that they were reducing budget but that came after their best opportunity to sell tickets during the 2023 playoffs. If they didn’t sell 2024 tickets then, why should they have expected the winter would be much better?
  13. jorgenswest
    Did they announce it during the playoffs? I thought it was reported early in the off-season. Their best shot at selling tickets is the playoffs when fans buy packages for next season to get a seat in the playoffs. That window is the key time to sell packages for 2024. Is it possible that poor future sales during the playoff push was a factor in their decision to cut payroll?
  14. jorgenswest
    Lewis isn’t likely returning before the deadline and the current administration has DFA’d veterans approaching the deadline. Smith and Duffey combined for 6.3 million when they were let go justafter the deadline in 2022. Parker was DFA’d on July 23. I think letting go of Farmer is possible upon Lewis’ return.
  15. jorgenswest
    At this point last year I pushed on how the Twins could not string together multiple series wins. I don’t think they even had more than two in a row by the all star break. It was my reasoning for why the Twins should not be active at the deadline and should replace Rocco. If you can’t utilize your roster, manage your bullpen and keep everybody contributing it is going to show up by failing to put together stretches where multiple series are won. I think this is five series wins in a row. Well done.
  16. jorgenswest
    I suppose they could have let Lewis’ original injury heal which is reported to be 8 months. He would have missed the season. Is that what you would recommend?
  17. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your strong takes. Do you believe the change in Larnach’s strike out rate and contact rate are significant and enough sample to be encouraging? His statcast expected stats based on the quality and quantity of his contact show a xwOBA that is behind only Correa and Lewis on the team. Is there any reason to be encouraged by his pitch/swing level data?
  18. jorgenswest
    Is that what @Seth Stohs has said? It is an offensive league so the run scoring context is different. I think it is fair to say slash stats or ERA are not useful as an indicator of readiness. I do think AAA play is valuable and a good indicator for the trained eyes of the staff. The pitch level and swing level data may also show some indication of readiness or lack of readiness in a large enough sample.
  19. jorgenswest
    That is a strong opinion. I think it is way too early to have an opinion so solid. There were strong takes early in the season about whether Miranda or Larnach can be anything beyond a AAAA player. Three months isn’t enough to definitively answer that yes but it too early to answer that question no at that time. The Twins would not be in playoff position without their contribution this year.
  20. jorgenswest
    They made their choice and took the risk of devoting a 40 man roster spot to a player that may not be ready and is not someone they will remove from the 40. I don’t think they can double down and try others not on the 40 and hope it works out unless it is someone like Dobnak that they can DFA. He is on the 40. I would keep give him until all star break.
  21. jorgenswest
    The league has been around a long time. The Montreal Royals had a long history from the late 1800s into the 1960s. Jackie Robinson played for the Royals. The Toronto Maple Leafs had a similarly lengthy run. It is those two franchises in particular that helped motivate the name International. https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/International_League
  22. jorgenswest
    The extra year or two of service time in a trade is very expensive. It would have taken more than twice the prospect value to get Burnes a year earlier. Going after rentals repeatedly at the deadline can be a much more efficient use of assets to acquire premium talent.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if Lewis is back before deadline and more likely September. He was out from March 28 to June 4 with his grade 2 quad strain. The grade 2 adductor strain can have a shorter recovery time than the quad but I expect they will be making deadline decisions without knowing when he will return. Lee should get a long run to show he is ready.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would pay up for an everyday impact bat. Luis Robert would be expensive but he also may be a buy low. Go get him. Platoon bats or swapping out defensive catchers or back up infielders is not going to move the needle. The same applies to pitchers. Get a starter that will be starting playoff games or a reliever that they would have confidence closing games. I wouldn’t be interested in a middle inning reliever or back end starter. I am sure some are ready to argue that the Twins won’t pay up. I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. I would pay up in prospects and dollars to get an impact player.
  25. jorgenswest
    Got it. I wasn’t aware a record needed to be set straight. I thought it might be about trying to get more out of recent Pirates. You probably had Musgrove on Searage’s failure list also. His strike out rate went from 21.9% in 2019 to 33.1% in 2020 under the new management.
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