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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    All the credit does to Dozier. He would have made it with someone. He worked himself into a player way beyond any expectations. It is so rare for an 8th round pick to have a significant career. At his pick #252, he has more WAR than all of the 52 other pick #252s combined.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins can afford to pay in arbitration for their performance. The real value is buying a few extra years of control. The players will hit free agency before 30. Players would be wise not to give up those years of control. It is a tough negotiation. Are there any comps in the last year of players under 25 signing long term deals where they pushed back free agency?
  3. jorgenswest
    He has some shaky defense behind him in Sano and Adrianza that resulted in an elevated pitch count and stressful innings. The Gibson of old might have imploded and left the game in a lot worse shape than down 2-0.
  4. jorgenswest
    Like any negotiation both parties have to be interested. It has to be a pretty narrow window if any at all to find an agreement with Berrios or Buxton. They have such high ceilings to bet on. Both sides would be wise to negotiate and maybe something will happen. If by low ball offer it is meant to imply that the offer shut the door and upset the player, I hope that we don’t make that assumption without back up. If it simply means the Twins opened at a spot below where an eventual deal might be made then that is a normal part of negotiations and not a low ball in my mind.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would prefer to see Hughes healthy and pitching well as well as the other options get off to good starts.
  6. jorgenswest
    There is no guarantee it goes well and he is ready. Who starts for Rochester April 6? Chattanooga April 5/6?
  7. jorgenswest
    Took a moment to get it but noted and edited.
  8. jorgenswest
    Command will outdo velocity. He had the command to make it effective prior to Tommy John. According to fangraphs, he threw his fastball 81.1% of the time in 2017. That was the most frequent among qualified starters by a huge margin. He threw his fastball more often before TJS in 2015 at 85.4%. His success in the major leagues is due to the effectiveness of his fastball.
  9. jorgenswest
    Sorry. Didn’t mean to suggest there is anything to be concerned about short term. The one year deal is a great deal. His heavy reliance on the fastball I think made him a poor long term contract gamble. I have confidence he will find his fastball that has been very effective.
  10. jorgenswest
    The strike zone map on brooks baseball. Seems like the umpire did a respectable job. One really noticeable ball called on a pitch in the middle of the plate thrown by a Pirates pitcher. A few pitches called ball at the bottom of the zone. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=4&day=02&year=2018&game=gid_2018_04_02_minmlb_pitmlb_1/&prevDate=0402 Lynn’s couldn’t command his fastball. He turned to the curve more often (17%) than he had in any game last year. He will find his fastball but his performance might hint why he had a hard time finding a long term contract. Like Phil Hughes, when his fastball loses effectiveness he will have a hard time finding major league success.
  11. jorgenswest
    Lynn is a fastball pitcher and he didn’t have command of the fastball today. His offspeed offerings aren’t likely to bail him out when he can’t command the fastball.
  12. jorgenswest
    The game is played by humans. Hard work, persistence and inspiration results in a few players every year that totally defy expectations based on their record. Maybe LaMarre will defy expectations and staff in the organization recognized that growth. Maybe not. I look forward to following the story.
  13. jorgenswest
    It just isn’t enough plate appearances to compare. Slash stats don’t stabilize until near a full season of at bats. The batting average part is over 900 ABs. There just isn’t enough sample to support a conclusion that he has the ability to be a league average hitter as a SS. His three measures where his sample might be meaningful are K%, BB% and ISO. His K% was good, BB% was OK and ISO was poor for a shortstop.
  14. jorgenswest
    A pitcher can start the Rochester home opener on April 6 (or even the AA game on April 5 or 6) and the be called up for the April 11 start. They can then send them back to AAA to make a start and return the 24th when the Twins will need a 5th starter for the second time. That starter can stay on schedule and stretched out. Meanwhile they can carry an extra position player or reliever. They will need to send out a reliever on the 11th and bring up a different reliever after the 11th but they have Busenitz or others to bring up. On the 24th, they will need to make a decision about the extra position player or reliever..
  15. jorgenswest
    Polanco was not suspended at the time Vargas was waived (to clear a spot for Cave). If he had been suspended earlier, Vargas would have remained on the 40 a few weeks longer. Sano avoids suspension lessening the need to fill the empty spot on the 40 man with an infielder. The empty spot allows the Twins to try to add depth with a bench bat. They may waive him again at the roster deadline but it will be harder for teams like the Reds to find space on the 25 in that window.
  16. jorgenswest
    It is a different context a week later. Polanco is out. Sano isn’t suspended. A bench of Garver, Adrianza, Grossman and Vargas is possible. If Rosario needs the DL, Granite is a call away. Meanwhile Vargas needs to show he is a better bench bat than Grossman
  17. jorgenswest
    They do need to find a Ryan Raburn type. I don’t think the original at age 37 is a better fit than Grossman.
  18. jorgenswest
    The lack of platoon split is much more common for hitters like Granite and LaMarre that rely on speed and contact rather than driving the ball. Neither would make a good platoon on a corner or bench bat to hit against a left handed pitcher. I am hoping that Garver can be an effective late inning pinch hitter against a lefty reliever.
  19. jorgenswest
    A couple of Kyle Gibson sightings this morning From MLB on throwing fewer fastballs https://www.mlb.com/news/fewer-fastballs-may-work-for-these-5-starters/c-269499070 And this bold prediction from Tristan Cockcroft - Kyle Gibson will strike out more than 170 batters while posting an ERA below 4.00 http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/22843749/fantasy-baseball-tristan-bold-predictions I can’t endorse the bold prediction, but I am intrigued by his performance in the second half last year when he went with the slider more often at the expense of his fastball.
  20. jorgenswest
    Spring training matters. Spring training data available to us is meaningless. The eyes of a skilled staff seeing these players everyday matters. Jobs can and should be won in spring training. From our end, we have no means to argue one way or another who should be on the roster based on spring. We certainly shouldn’t use the small and skewed sample we see in the stat lines. Performance in spring training matters and I hope the Twins have a staff skilled in evaluating that performance because there will be little correlation to performance in the data we can see.
  21. jorgenswest
    LaMarre bats right handed but he has had better splits the last two years against right handed pitching. Last year he was 7/40 against left handed pitching with no extra base hits, 4 walks and 14 strikeouts. Most of the at bats were in the hitter friendly PCL. He played more in 2016 and his OPS against right handed pitching was better 851 vs 752. Granite also hits better against right handed pitching but his 822/781 differential is relatively neutral. I don’t see how LaMarre’s batting right handed helps here. It should matter more how well he hits left handed pitching.
  22. jorgenswest
    I like the moves and the depth this year. I think both Duffey and Busenitz have some upside that a stay in AAA might help them realize. It would be harder to do that at the back end of the bullpen. I expect at least one of them will return and be a sold contributor.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Ervin situation is good relative to Nolasco/Hughes but it could turn out to be 2 good years out of 4.
  24. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine so many teams missed out on Adrianza if he can match above average defense with a close to league average (for a SS). That is starter quality. He put up those PCL averages prior to being DFA’d twice A year ago. I don’t think those numbers impressed anyone or he would have acquired in trade before the DFA process. On the other hand, he is at a point in his career where he would likely be near his peak. It is possible the very best of his bat matched with good defense come perfectly timed for this opportunity. I wouldn’t trust any good numbers long term, but there is reasonable hope for a good first half.
  25. jorgenswest
    Maybe the Twins platoon at SS by starting pitcher. If a ground ball pitcher like Gibson or maybe Lynn is pitching, play Adrianza. If it is a fly ball guy like Odorizzi, start Escobar.
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