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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins have 5 spots to fill on the bench (plus DH). One of those players has to have options to be easily moved when the need for a 13th pitcher occurs. Catcher Middle infield Sano insurance at 3B Outfield 13th position player with options. Without any moves my guess for the 5 would be... Garver Adrianza Escobar Grossman Granite How would Napoli (or even Vargas) fit? Vargas projects better next year but possibly not from the right side. They could take Grossman’s spot. When Granite is shuttled out Adrianza is the reserve OF. I suppose they could take the spot of Escobar or Adrianza but that is really counting on Sano’s health. Are there alternatives? The Twins could bring in a defensive back up catcher and use Garver in the shuttle role. How close is Garver to the bat of Vargas or Napoli? They could bring in a right handed batting corner OF. I don’t see how Napoli fits well.
  2. jorgenswest
    I sure hope the front office was pretty confident he wasn’t ready when he didn’t get an opportunity last year. They see him everyday. They know his command, velocity, spin rate, consistency... They know how his arm reponds the day following an appearance. The skilled staff watching him in the minors is very capable of making that assessment.
  3. jorgenswest
    Ernie Banks played SS through age 30 posting an OPS+ of 138. Thereafter he played 1B with an OPS+ of 106. Among shortstops Banks ranks 7th according to JAWS. Joe Mauer played C through age 30 with an OPS+ of 135. As a 1B since he has an OPS+ of 106. Among catchers Mauer ranks 7th according to JAWS. Banks made it to the Hall of Fame for his shortstop play. Mauer can get there as a catcher.
  4. jorgenswest
    Frazier v Kepler could go either way. Kepler is more established. Frazier has more years on control. Adams is the better player in the deal though. The Pirates may see him as a better prospect than Gonsalves and Romero. The Pirates can be patient and deal at mid season if they don’t be the deal they want this winter.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would give up Kepler and Jay but I think the Pirates want better than Frazier/Adams from the Yankees. A Kepler/Jay offer isn’t in the ballpark.
  6. jorgenswest
    Mauer’s comps of Cochrane and Dickey suggests that he fits in the Hall of Fame. He also ranks above them in JAWS at catcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    Is there evidence that home run/fly ball rates among individuals is stable from year to year? I have seen that the estimate is 400-500 fly balls which is more than two seasons for a starting pitcher. I don’t believe he will repeat his rate of last year(15.9%) or his rate from 2016(6.8%). They are the extremes in random variation of a stat that takes a huge sample to stabilize. I don’t believe he will be as effective at limiting home runs as he was in 2016 or be as ineffective as he was in 2017. I don’t believe that change in rates indicates a change in skill level.
  8. jorgenswest
    I am not sure this number projects well or indicates a skill change His fly ball rate was 10% above his career norm and more fly balls will lead to more homeruns. Fly ball rates are on the rise across baseball, but not to the extant Cole’s HR rate increased. His increase was due to his home run per fly ball rate that was 60% above career norm. Home run per fly ball rates are not stable. It would be reasonable to expect that number to be much closer to his career norm in 2018.
  9. jorgenswest
    It isn’t definitive but there is a reasonable possibility that the Pirates view Adams as better than any arm in the Twins minor leagues which would make it difficult for the Twins to compete in this negotiation.
  10. jorgenswest
    Last year Vargas had the flexibility of an option. I would think Napoli has to be here at the cost of Grossman. A bench of Garver, Napoli, Escobar and Adrianza is without options or an outfielder when carrying 13 pitchers. Zach Granite could be the shuttle guy in this scenario. Who helps more? Napoli or Grossman? Would Austin Jackson fit the roster better than either of those two?
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins can’t compete against Torres in the deal. If he is off the table, Lewis and Romero should be a competitive offer. The Pirates might prefer an Adams/Frazier deal if they like Adams better than Romero or Gonsalves. They may have turned downed an Adams Frazier offer so it might take another good prospect to get him. Acquiring Cole is going to hurt. As long as the Yankees are in play it will be hard for the Twins to compete against their deep farm system.
  12. jorgenswest
    Buxton or Berrios
  13. jorgenswest
    Realmuto for Garver and a prospect or two is worth pursuing. I don’t think the Marlins will be receptive to taking on any veteran contract without giving up much larger contracts. If the Twins open with Castro, the Marlins will hang up and deal with the teams understanding their interest.
  14. jorgenswest
    Sabathia on a one year 10 million dollar deal with Yankees. I hoped the Twins would be in play there for a one year deal. I wonder how much more than 10 million they would have had to go to get Sabathia. I wouldn’t have been interested in two years.
  15. jorgenswest
    Trying to stay focused on the Cole market... The Pirates reportedly want Gleyber Torres in return for Cole. I would too. I don’t think they will get him. If they can approach that level the Twins don’t have the minor league assets to be in the Cole market.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Pirates get two extra years of control with Frazier. Kepler also start arbitration next year so not only is it two additional years, it is two inexpensive years. Given the years of control, I can see how the Pirates might prefer Frazier.
  17. jorgenswest
    Easy to like that, but if the Yankees set the market for Cole at Adams/Frazier it will take much more to get Archer.
  18. jorgenswest
    The NY Post reported the Yankees are working on a deal to acquire a Gerrit Cole. Players mentioned include Clint Frazier and Chance Adams. The Twins might be able to step in here. How would an offer of Kepler and choice of Gonsalves/Romero match up? Maybe a little light but close. The third piece could win the deal. Do you step in here and try to top the Yankees rumored offering of Frazier and Adams? How much beyond Kepler and one of Gonsalves/Romero do you go to persuade the Pirates?
  19. jorgenswest
    Ramsey appeared in the futures game when hosted in Minnesota. https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-prospect-james-ramsey-comes-full-circle-in-futures-game-start/c-84600036
  20. jorgenswest
    Wondering... The Twins didn’t lose anyone in the minor league phase and added two. Does this suggest that the depth of their system is relatively weak?
  21. jorgenswest
    It becomes an issue when they go belly up year 1.
  22. jorgenswest
    There isn't a more un reliable career path than that of a reliever. It is folly to use 2017 stats to project 2018-2020. Go back two years and look at the relievers that received multi-year contracts. John Axford Steve Cishek Jason Motte Tyler Clippard Antonio Bastardo Mark Lowe Tony Barnette Chad Qualls Jonathan Broxton Oliver Perez Shawn Kelley Tony Sipp Ryan Madson Joakim Soria Darren O'Day If Rodney doesn't pitch well, it is easy to cut ties. It is much harder to cut ties when multiple years are committed.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am sure I said somewhere that I would rather the Twins go big for someone like Davis or Darvish or sign an old guy like Sabathia and try to squeeze out a year. This fits the old guy signing. I still don’t like it. Intellectually I know that many of the multi year reliever free agent deals work out badly for the teams. My intellect isn’t taking over here. It should be telling me that the likelihood of Rodney pitching acceptably well in 2018 is similar to many of the relievers recently signed. My gut isn’t impressed with the signing.
  24. jorgenswest
    If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.
  25. jorgenswest
    He could be a September addition to the bullpen when rosters expand. The bullpen might be the best spot for 2018 also.
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