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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    When it is clear his velocity is not going to return to 92-93.
  2. jorgenswest
    There will be a need for a 13th pitcher. At that point someone will need to be DFA’d if the bench is Adrianza/Aybar, Escobar, Grossman and Garver. The catcher can’t be moved. If Granite isn’t on the opening day roster he will likely be the one coming back as they go from 13 to 12 to 13. He really is most option ready to be the player that goes back and forth from the minors as the 13th position player. Last year Vargas was on that shuttle.
  3. jorgenswest
    Granite has options so I would think he fits better as the 4th man on the bench. He can be sent to AAA when a 13th pitcher is needed. They don’t need to start the season that way though. They can start with a bench of Escobar, Adrianza, Garver and Grossman. That can last as long until there is a need for a 13th pitcher and then someone will be DFA’d. Neither Grossman or Vargas have any trade value. How could they? Good DHs can’t get a contract in this market.
  4. jorgenswest
    I can’t imagine how any minor league reliever would be perceived by a front office as too valuable to trade. Most major league relievers are former starters. Did any of them ever make anyone’s top 100 prospect list? The Twins front office’s decision to draft college relievers was foolish and a failure. Those pitchers never had significant value to other teams.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if the Twins let out which pitcher they preferred. The possible reward of Lynn or Cobb deals of less than 4 years would be worth the risk.
  6. jorgenswest
    There will be others that will be removed. There is no way they get by with 14 position players over the course of the season. Upon seeing him this spring, If they assessed that he would not be an early option in the bullpen they might be gambling that he has a better chance to get through now rather than later.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins have 14 position players on the 40man roster. The position players here are not yet ready or pretty underwhelming. They really need those position players to remain healthy.
  8. jorgenswest
    Santana and May will be ready early in the season. The young pitchers will be in AAA. They will be ready soon. With the addition of Odorizzi, the Twins have depth in the rotation. They all need to get off to a solid start because Santana and May will be taking or pushing for a spot upon return. If Duffey doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, I would have him stretched out in AAA and ready to jump into the major league rotation also. There are a lot of question marks with Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia and Sanchez but they will need to perform with Santana, May, Duffey, Romero and Gonsalves in the wings. All of this and there is a possibility Hughes is healthy and his velocity has returned. It’s on the Twins staff now to get the most out the talents of their starters.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am hopeful that the current staff is able to get more out of the talent on hand. Does Gibson start this season where he ended last season? Can Duffey’s performance move closer to his peripherals? What can they get out of Mejia? How do they help the pitchers that are close in AAA advance that next step?
  10. jorgenswest
    The debate should be whether a Sanchez is worth a spot on the 40. I am having a hard time finding a spot. I don’t think I want to add him and risk losing a player with options. We are going to need pitchers with options to shuttle back and forth. I really need two spots since I would plan to sign another starter even if it is a one year deal to Tillman. We can use the 60 day DL. That clears at least one spot and maybe more. If only one, it needs to be for a better signing and not Sanchez. Pineda May(?) Hughes (?) I need a second spot for Sanchez. Players without option flexibility I might remove to add Sanchez. Kinley Vargas Hughes Worst case I add Sanchez and lose Kinley. I think I would do that.
  11. jorgenswest
    There are two positions that seem viable. - Empty the prospect bank to acquire Archer. - Let someone else empty their prospect bank. Someone will offer a Lewis type plus another top 100. I am leaning towards trading 6 years of Lewis plus 6 years of another for 4 years of Archer but have more reservations as I read the responses. Of course I am all in if a deal can be made without Lewis. History suggests that the Rays will not need to listen to that offer.
  12. jorgenswest
    Based on the Quintana trade, someone will offer a prospect at least as promising as Lewis. Trading for a pitcher is going to hurt. Lewis has to be on the table.
  13. jorgenswest
    I agree that it is fair value. Someone will overpay to get Archer. The Twins can’t win the deal unless it is too much. Look at the return for Quintana who is similar in performance age and years of control at the time of his trade.
  14. jorgenswest
    Archer and Quintana are pretty good comps looking at the last three years. I would expect the Rays to wait for a similar return.
  15. jorgenswest
    I really appreciate your refocusing is on the topic of contingency plan. The Astros might be a good place to find pitching. I hope they fill with Garcia or a three year deal for Cobb, but a trade like that will help. It seems odd that the new folks on this site have an easier time staying on topic than the long term members. DaveW started a discussion about the front office and signing free agents or not. I would invite those interested go the and those interested in looking forward to this year’s starters continue here.
  16. jorgenswest
    No. I also don’t think it is very wise to make future projections based on one injury filled shortened season. I sure hope that isn’t how the front office is projecting players. His injury may have changed his skill. He may no longer be the pitcher he was the previous 4 years. If he is not, their commitment will be minimal at 1 year and they can move on. If he does find his preinjury form, they will have a useful asset that can help them.
  17. jorgenswest
    At this late point hopefully they get a pitcher at a little less cost than originally expected. Some team might react and overpay but if the Twins get Lynn/Cobb for 3 years instead of 4 or 5 or Garcia/Tillman on a 1 year deal they get help this year and still can pursue that starter in trade. It is critical that a couple of prospects take a big step forward towards top 20 mlb so that the Twins have the currency to make that deal.
  18. jorgenswest
    As I understand this injury, it results from repeated use. It has probably been aggravated previously and he rebounded back without surgery. Surgery is a tough call. You don’t always come back to the same level. Electing surgery is a risk to your career I am still interested in finding histories of pitchers with previous surgeries to the middle finger and their recovery. How likely does Santana make a full recovery and is at that level soon after he returns?
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins can survive Santana missing a month. They can’t survive a significant drop in his performance after he returns. Does anyone recall other pitchers returning from a similar surgery? Fingers must be incredibly critical to command and spin rate.
  20. jorgenswest
    The late market on starters is going to create the opportunity to get a good deal with someone. That might mean a one year deal for one of the above. It might mean getting Cobb or Lynn on a three year deal instead of 4.
  21. jorgenswest
    For the playoffs, I would love to have the 2013 Lynn or Cobb. That is the last either won a playoff game. That was 5 years and a significant injury ago. The Twins need to be projecting forward and not looking backward. Projecting forward through their mid thirties won’t be as hope filled as looking back at their primes.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think Lorenzo Cain is a better long term bet and would get better offers. He did get 80 million over 5 year at 16 million a year. I don’t see Dozier getting that kind of deal. He may get the year amount over a shorter term.
  23. jorgenswest
    If in general long term deals are too often bad deals, then the amount of dollars/war calculated based on those deals is not going to be helpful in arguing whether a deal is good or not. If teams are able to get better at projecting forward, we will see the dollars/WAR go down with the decrease in deals like those to Nolasco and Sanchez. Perhaps the slowness of the market this year is an indicator of teams realizing the pay off on their 4 year investment hasn’t justified the cost.
  24. jorgenswest
    A quick aside... K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.
  25. jorgenswest
    They could always commit millions and many years to Lynn or Cobb who have similar 2017 xFIPs and similar 2018 steamer projections.
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