jorgenswest

Ehire Adrianza has the best glove but his bat will be exposed. He will be Pedro Florimon wi5h the bat against right handed pitching. A switch hitter, he tried batting right handed against righties last year and went 0-12 according to BR splits. Eduardo Escobar has the better bat. His glove has been shaky and over his career he hasn’t hit right handed pitching as well. He might step up defensively with consistent play. Erick Aybar can’t hit or field anymore. I think they need to release him at the first sign of a better option on the waiver wire. As a short term stop gap if Sano was suspended it might have worked. This is not short term. Nick Gordon could really help here.

How is it even possible that you did not see the first part of my comment? Please take great caution whenever selectively quoting. The original is below. Note the first sentence. My point of the last sentence is for those who claim that starting Hughes will for those starts as a 5th starter is equivalent to costing the Twins every one of those games in the win/loss column. I absolutely advocate for the Twins using the best option. I also argue that the win probability difference between Hughes and the Mejia (or other) over those two games is not very large.

They should seek their best option. If a minor leaguer, I was arguing that it is quite possible to throw that best option. I also realize that the difference between Hughes and the best option in those two games won’t change the win probability significantly.

The first time a 5th starter is needed is April 11. The Red Wings open April 6 so their opening day starter lines up. Chattanooga starts April 5 so I suppose someone who pitched one of the first two games there would line up. If Hughes is out, the Twins could go with an extra position players for the first 10 games and then call up a pitcher for April 11. The next need for a 5th starter is April 24 so Mejia could return to AAA and start a game before returning. They would have to call up a different position player for the second stretch with the 10 day rule. If they judge Duffey to be their best 5th starter option. They could do the same with him keeping him stretched out for his starts. I don’t know who gives them the best shot at winning those two games (Astros and Yankees) but whether it is Hughes, Mejia, Romero, Duffey or other they aren’t likely the favorite to win those games. If Hughes starts and loses both games it will be hard to argue that he cost the team two games in the win column.

A couple of the earned runs were a fly ball lost in the sun that went for a ground rule double. He was still awful and had awful defense behind him. The Pirates did not a have a good lineup. He gave up two solo home runs and walked the pitcher prior to the ground rule double. He was touching 90. Looked good in the second inning with three strike outs. It is hard to imagine he will be the fifth starter but he will get a few more looks.

We won’t know from data we can see but the Twins better have a pretty good idea right now.

I agree with starting the best player and I would give more weight to the better defender at the catcher position. I suspect Castro is the better defender but I really don’t know how much better.

I don’t think it is reasonable to think that the Twins can get a lot of benefit from a catcher platoon unless they go with three catchers. Let’s suppose the catcher spot is hitting near the bottom of the order against a lefty starter. Unless that pitcher is an ace, he is out of the game after two plate appearances from the catcher. The other two plate appearances are against a reliever. Most teams aren’t pinch hitting for the catcher unless they carry three so the remaining at bats are likely against a right handed pitcher. I think there is more to gain by matching the catcher with our pitcher. It can also help to switch catchers in a day game following a night game even if those two games are started by a lefty. There just isn’t enough to gain by planning to start Garver against all lefties.

I wonder if Vargas will have a beak out season like Morrison in his late 20s. I would have had more confidence in Morrison though. The strike out and walk rates distinguish the two. I don’t think Vargas will walk enough to succeed with a strike out rate near 30%. Morrison changed his approach last year and his k% went up but so did his bb%. Vargas really needed to show progress last year and the nearly 500 plate appearances between Rochester and Minnesota at age 26 were underwhelming for a DH.

They need both Granite and Cave. Their position player depth on the 40 was very thin.

The addition of Cave adds depth to OF in the system. He fits better on the 40 than Vargas.

Rochester got hammered by weather early last year. I think they had something like 6 postponements in the first month. Romero in AA is much more likely to get regular work and be ready if needed early.

It is possible if they are giving Hughes the remaining spring training to show something and lining up Mejia (or Romero) for that first targeted 5th start. It might be Hughes’ job to lose but I don’t think the competition for that spot is over because Mejia was sent out. Sending Mejia to minor league camp allows him to start every fifth day and stretch out. They wouldn’t happen if he were in major league camp.

It could be a missed opportunity. It is possible that moving him helps get him on schedule for that first April start. I guess if he or Romero line up for that date it stays a possibility.

I don’t think it would be that difficult to plan for Mejia the 5th start role from AAA. In fact it is almost ideal through the first two starts. The space between those is greater than 10 days. Give him a start in AAA, call him up, send him back for another start in AAA and call him up. He is stretched out for his starts. He stays on schedule. Seems like a good way to utilize options and gain benefit from their depth in starting pitchers.

I would add Mejia as one in the developed category also as the Twins get all of his years of control. Next year could be the year where they have 80% home grown.

It must keep Grossman safe. He will make the 25 and Granite is playing in Rochester. The drop off from Granite seems pretty large. They were very healthy last year but a Buxton injury as a result of crashing a fence combined with an injury to any of the others could make that 6th OF very necessary. I doubt the 6th OF, if needed, is currently in the organization.

Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite. Who is next? Is LaMonte Wade this year’s Granite? Adrianza or Escobar? Watching Mitch Garver play LF Saturday was not encouraging. It doesn’t look as if he has made any progress since last year. He can’t be an option. He can’t read the ball off the bat. Is there any near major league ready depth in the minors? Do we trust any of the guys that are in spring on minor league contracts? The Twins position players were very healthy last year. Few reinforcements were needed from a Rochester. Can we count on that again?

Nine of Twelve made this observation that interested me. It is clearly rare to make a significant postseason run without a left handed starting pitcher. I am guessing it is also rare to finish outside of the playoffs without a left handed starting pitcher. Are teams without left handed starters less likely to make the playoffs? In the 2000s, three teams have made it to the world series without a left handed starter (each had one spot start in the season by a lefty). There have 18 such regular season teams with 0 or 1 left handed starts over the season in that time span. Making it through the season without anything more than a single spot start by a lefty is rare. It doesn't appear to make it less likely that a team will advance to the world series (3 in 18 is better than 2 in 30), The Twins need to go with their best starters regardless of whether they are left handed or right handed. It didn't stop the 2004 Red Sox, 2004 Cardinals or 2016 Indians from advancing to the world series. It won't be the reason that keeps the Twins out either.

With the lost years, won’t the Twins almost certain to be making 40 man roster decision and option decisions before they really know what they have in him? Is there any consideration given when a player is serving in the military?

I agree. The only road to winning for a small to mid revenue team is devloping minor league talent. The Twins won’t sustain success unless they develop their own pitching. Signing free agent pitchers whether short or long term will not lead to sustained success. The free agent signings this winter are great. Lynn is a great add on a short term deal. The long term success relies on their ability to develop their talent to success at the major league level.

75 or 95- the likelihood that player has a significant career is remote. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-9343-don-mccormack-tino-martinez-lance-lynn-and-the-75th-pick/

Fantastic deal.

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95. What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision? With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first pick 75 was Frederick Marden. Marden never pitched in the majors topping out in A-Ball. The first #75 pick to reach the majors is Don McCormack. McCormack might be remembered for his career major league batting average of .400. He accomplished this splitting his 2 career hits evenly over his 2 seasons. The first significant major leaguer was drafted in 1975. With 24.8 career WAR, Jason Thompson is among the very best players drafted at pick 75. There are three others with career WAR in the 20s in Tino Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Yunel Escobar. One other major league has had a significant career. Wade Davis has 11.7 career WAR. Five players with a significant career. Rounding out the top 10 are Scott Radinsky, Joe Lefebvre, Joel Johnston, A.J. Minter and the previously recognized Don McCormack. Since Yunel Escobar was drafted in 2005, the 75th pick has a cumulative total of -1.2 WAR. Yes... there might be a significant player among them. Significant players occur about once a decade at this pick. That significant player isn’t going to come from players drafted between 2006 and 2013 though. That group is ages 25-32 and done or almost done. Maybe pick 75 has just been unlucky. The Twins have never drafted 75th. Maybe they know better. Let’s increase the sample size and look at picks 74 and 76. Pick 74 has three players of 53 thus far with a career WAR of 20 or better including the very first pick 74 in 1965. The Twins drafted Graig Nettles in 1965. The Twins do know better! He finished with a career WAR of 68.0 and has a good chance to remain the MV74P at least through my lifetime. Let’s hope Akil Baddoo challenges that number. I would hate to miss out on a Nettles to add Lance Lynn. Ironically, the Twins did lose out on Nettles in order to bolster the rotation by trading him for Luis Tiant. Tiant pitched well in one season for the Twins until hit by significant injury. David Cone comes in as the number 2 pick 74. He has career WAR of 62.5. The Royals missed out on 62.6 of that WAR when they traded him for Rick Anderson and Ed Hearn. Two fantastic pick 74s but the drafting teams had little to show for the wisdom of their picks. The other player with better than 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy at 21.3. Two players are still active with a small chance to get there are John Jay(13.1) and Tyler Chatwood(10.2). How about pick 76? Chase Utley is the MV76P almost in the clubhouse at 65.4 WAR. He will get challenged by Giancarlo Stanton currently with 35.1 WAR at age 28. The only other player drafted 76 with a career WAR above 20 is Marquis Grissom at 29.4. Only 9 of the 53 players drafted pick 76 have a positive career WAR including current major league catchers Nick Hundley, James McCann and JR Murphy. The Twins have drafted 76th twice. They drafted Graig’s brother Jim Nettles in 1968. His 1.1 career WAR ranks him 8th. Let’s hope Blayne Enlow adds his name to the short list of players with a significant career. What is a pick 75 worth? Ten players with significant careers thus far among the 159 players drafted picks 74 through 76. Nettles, Cone, Utley and Stanton had seasons where they were among the best at their positions. Teams hit on a major league star about 3% of the time although two drafting teams did not recognize their star. You find a player with a solid career about 7% of the time. Around 20% of the players will have achieved positive WAR in the majors. Do you give up that pick to sign a free agent? I think so. I think you do so without blinking. It would be awful to lose out on Giancarlo Stanton but that likelihood seems so remote. If he is there at 75, he would have been there at 60. Pick him then. Losing the draft pick should have no impact on the Twins decision about signing Lynn or Cobb. It all has to be about the years and the dollars. If they can get either for two years, I would offer that contract without hesitation or thought of pick 75. *WAR as calculated by baseball reference. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_type=junreg&overall_pick=75&query_type=overall_pick

At some point I think they wait into the season. The draft pick will go away. Injuries and poor pitching will create a better market.