jorgenswest

I look forward to seeing how Pinto and Herrmann measure up receiving the ball.

Great report. Great read. Thank you.

Great stuff. I look forward to your reports later this week. You have sold me on Manaea.

Nice report. I hope they get to see Pinto or Herrmann in a long enough stretch this year so the Twins can determine if either has the defense to be a viable back up catcher for 2014. I am not sure that the Twins can get back anything more valuable than what Doumit can provide with the bat in 2014 so he may not be an asset on the trade market. If not, he would have value as a switch hitting DH/bench bat/emergency catcher on next year's roster.

The Twins don't have better options for a second catcher. Doumit has to catch someone. I'd rather it be Correia than a young pitcher.

Any insight on Polanco? Why 2B? Didn't he have a good reputation as a SS? Has he outgrown the position? Have they already decided he doesn't have the arm? I am concerned because it is rare for a Low A ball second baseman to progress to the majors. Romero's case might be a little different as the Twins move him the other way on the defensive spectrum. If the Twins project him as a major league utility player or starting middle infielder, he needs to be getting significant time at SS. At 19, he is too young to be exclusively a 2B. I know the Twins have Goodrum, Michael and Santana in front of him. Perhaps the hope was all three will take a step up during the year opening the spot in Cedar Rapids. Perhaps he is a poor defender and no longer seen as a major league middle infielder.

Thanks

I appreciate data, but realize that interpretation is opinion. One observation of the data thus far has been that the Twins have worked the pitch counts of opposing pitchers. They had 4 players last year that saw an above average pitches/plate appearance. Mauer - 4.31 Willingham - 4.20 Carroll - 4.07 Span - 3.89 Dozier saw 3.68 pitches per plate appearance. This year the team average is 4.25 in a few games. Last year was 3.88. I wonder if grouping at the top of the lineup several players who can work the count and see a lot of pitches will cause earlier exits of the opposing starting pitcher. Grouping them certainly will lead to higher pitch count innings. I am not sure what the data means to winning baseball games, but I am interested in following it this year.

There is probably a way to study where the extra runs came. It might be 5 in the first inning. We would probably give a couple back when a couple guys are on base mid game and 8-9 are due up.

I am not sure there would be significant difference had I used Bill James, Marcel, Oliver, or Steamer. I decided to choose one before I looked at the data. Otherwise, I might pick the one that happens to have Dozier lower and some of the others higher to better attain the results I expected. Dozier's OPS projections range from 646 to 672. ZIPS had him at 649. Willingham's were 816 to 833. ZIPS had him at 822. ZIPS was least favorable to Doumit and Morneau. I don't think the results would be significantly different had I chosen different projections. The projections seem low, but three of those players are in the decline phase of their careers with some injury history.

Roenicke had 8 wild pitches last year. Only Diamond on the Twins had more at 10 while facing many more batters. By rate, Gray had a similar rate of 1 wild pitch per 47-48 batters. Gray is probably a good comp for Roenicke. Where was Burton? Roenicke is the last guy you want in the game with runners on base.

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

There may be a positive side effect. Players must resent when teams mess with their service time and play the three week game. Maybe it gets noticed by guys that will be drafted into the organization. Maybe they are more likely to take a reasonable contract when the Twins don't have a track record of messing around on the other end by playing with service time.

I recall being excited about both Banks and Parks. Two high school first rounders that didn't meet expectations. Pitchers and catchers are probably the most difficult to project as high school seniors into the major leagues.

How did we go from platooning to send down to Rochester? If Ramirez starts against lefties in RF, Parmelee will still see time at 1B or DH in some of those games. He will also start the majority if games in right. Not because he earned it, not because of a scholarship, but because the Twins assess that he is the best option. I can't disagree. Based on the whole of his performance over the last two years, there is a reasonable chance he can provide league average play for a RF or 1B for the next several years. Why platoon? His OPS in AA and AAA over the last two years is more than 200 points lower against lefties.

Thanks again for a very detailed report. Ramirez would be useful on the bench though scouting reports on the 3B turned corner OF have never been good about his defense. He has the speed and maybe over time improved the instincts. He can't be worse than Willingham or Parmelee. I would like to see him in the bench. Though his platoon splits in the minors have been neutral, would you platoon him with Parmelee?

Thanks for the report. Do you think Hicks, Span or Revere get to any of those balls? Was it a bad day or is his range in centerfield more limited then we have seen from Span, Revere or Hicks?

Starting pitching is so difficult to find. The Twins should be interested.

If the topic interests you, there have been several studies on the topic. Why do teams exceed their win expectancy? Is it luck? The following suggested that leverage (bullpen plays a significant part of leverage), a balanced lineup and an experienced manager can partially explain why a team exceeds its win expectancy. Pondering Pythagoras This more recent study looks only at managers. Manager Wins Above Expectancy - Beyond the Box Score If it isn't entirely luck, teams would be wise to figure out what factors help a team get those extra wins. Every win purchased in free agency is very expensive. This may be a more efficient route.

I would be surprised if he brought a top 100 prospect. How much more value does he bring than a Soriano who the Yankees could get for much less than a top 100 prospect? On the other hand, he is at peak value now and the Twins should seriously listen to an offer. They can't expect to be blown away. He is a DH with a history of injuries.

Within the last year the Astros have hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. After trying to retool for years, they are all in on the rebuild. In that year the farm system has gone from 27th to 4th in Keith Law's rankings. They will be awful this year and likely next. They may also go from awful to good in 2015 skipping mediocre entirely.

Lots of position battles this year.

Just a few questions in my mind as I read... By performance, weren't many of the teams of the last decade better than the 1987 team? The 1987 team had the great fortune of home field advantage though they didn't earn it. It rotated in that era. Once in the playoffs, the small sample of games makes it very difficult to assess the quality of the team. An extra home game was huge for the Twins. That assessment is best done by the in season performance. Why trade Garza and Bartlett for a known troubled player in Delmon Young? How does that fit with concerns about Twins way or ethnicity? More questions come to mind... The frequent appearances of Carew and Oliva, choosing Buxton over Appel, winning the monetary battle to sign Sano... Are they consistent with the thoughts in the article?

Nice study. My original thought was that since strikeouts are on the rise, defensive chances decline. Relievers tend to have higher strikeout rates and lower ground ball rates. That quick thought doesn't do the work justice. I am not sure that strikeouts completely explain the shift. Worthy of more thought. Too bad we don't have pitch fx data to compare eras.