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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I blogged a brief history of pick 20. Brief enough to copy here. The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  3. jorgenswest
    Another opinion on the deal... (MLBTR quoting fanrag)
  4. jorgenswest
    A year ago when Rosario hit 1000 PAs (maybe ABs) there was an article on this site and discussion on the KFAN Sunday radio show about how he had the poorest OBP among all LFs with 1000 PAs. There was a big flaw in that comparison. It wasn’t comparing all LFs at the point they reached 1000 PAs. If it had there would be several other LFs with poorer OBPs. Some like Joe Rudi had very good careers. It is so important for organizations to have patience with players 25 and under with even as many as 1000 plate appearances. The first 1000 is not a good predictor of how they will perform as they get to 1500 or 2000.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think they don’t bump him because they believe he gives them the best chance to win in his 8th inning role. Previous performance is not a good predictor of the next performance. Unless there is an injury or something that might indicate injury like drop in velocity, they should keep putting him in that role. It won’t be a matter of him working anything out if he does well in the next opportunity but rather the random variation of day to day performance.
  6. jorgenswest
    Hildenberger on WCCO this morning talking about Garver and his comfort in working with him.
  7. jorgenswest
    The 40 man piece is the key. They don’t know which injuries are ahead and what kind of flexibility they will need on the 40 man roster. If a guy is going to be added to the 40 man roster at this point, they better be extremely confident that the player is here to stay and will make an impact.
  8. jorgenswest
    You are really working hard to be right on this one. I don’t expect a haul but you were simply incorrect about the return for Rodney. Paddack wasn’t cash or a player to be named later. I will leave you another trade day article where he slots in the Padres top 10. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/7/1/12073138/padres-acquire-rhp-chris-paddack-from-miami-for-fernando-rodney
  9. jorgenswest
    Really? Ubiquitous player to be named? Prospect with a pulse? He was drafted out of high school the previous year. This was written on the day of the trade. “In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”
  10. jorgenswest
    I think the Padres are very satisfied with the return of Chris Paddock for Rodney.
  11. jorgenswest
    One guy’s production they really need is John Ryan Murphy and his 8 home runs in just 79 at bats.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Wade by the end of the year but he comes with some questions that can’t be answered with data. The Twins staff seeing him everyday likely do have some answers. Defensively he has moved off of center field and has been reported to have a below average arm. He may be an upgrade in LF over Rosario. Is he a liability in RF and CF? Offensively there should be some concern about the number of walks absent of good power. With a high number of walks he is seeing a lot of pitches. He must be seeing a lot of pitches he should be barreling up. Is he not recognizing and attacking those pitches? Is he fouling them off when he should be driving them to gaps? He won’t see nearly as many good pitches to hit in the majors. If major league pitchers don’t have to worry about him attacking hittable pitches, they will pound the zone and his minor league walks will turn into weak contact. I would like to see him in AAA. With success, I would like to see him in September. I don’t advocate for him to be called up now. AA walks without good power doesn’t translate well to the majors.
  13. jorgenswest
    They need to wait closer to the deadline to get the better value as teams get more desperate to make a move. Until then they can hope those with expiring contracts play well.
  14. jorgenswest
    He is free to sign with any team. I wonder if he would see the Twins as the best option. His road to playing regularly hinges on whether Mauer is able to return. As for the Twins, they should be interested. They have playing time right now. A good 6 weeks could turn this small investment into a prospect from another team. If he plays well flip him by the deadline. If not, release him.
  15. jorgenswest
    Santana and May need a 40 spot. They will likely try to get him through waivers when they need the second spot. Castro will be moved to the 60 to create the other.
  16. jorgenswest
    Honest question What is the most ever spent? Does it count re-signing or extending their own players?
  17. jorgenswest
    They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals. The dollars will make a difference.
  18. jorgenswest
    Reading with interest. I still think that buying and selling looks the same right now and through the all star break. Keep playing the players in their last year of control right now.
  19. jorgenswest
    My meh... Which has more value? A pick 74 for which only a small minority of players have had a significant career or Villalobos and a one year free agent signing at around 7.5 million. It seems like there is space to argue on both sides. Isn’t that different from saying why bother drafting? It just might not be worth Villalobos and 7.5 million. I would prefer the pick only because there is about a 5% chance that a truly valuable player will emerge. I don’t know the likelihood that a free agent at 7.5 million (or upgrading to a better free agent with 7.5 million) will result in a truly valuable addition for a season. Maybe it is around 50%. Bet on improving next season or take a flier on a player that might help 5 years down the road. Meh.
  20. jorgenswest
    Selling and buying looks the same right now. They need to hope Lynn, Dozier, Morrison, Escobar, Rodney and Duke play well to the deadline. They need to keep playing them. Strong play from this group adds to their trade value and the win column. The last two months is enough time for any call up to get their feet wet with really no need to burn an option by sending them down.
  21. jorgenswest
    The pmajority of players picked 74 never play in the majors. By WAR Mike Benjamin is 8th of 53 and the last of the useful players. A few other recent draftees might join the group but pick 74 has minimal but better odds of being a useful player than the catcher they received. With the 7 some million they can add a bat like Morrison for a year or a set up man for a year. I am not sure that there is anything here to get very passionate about.
  22. jorgenswest
    There have been 53 pick 74s. The Twins picked 74 in the very first draft and chose Graig Nettles. Great choice. Best 74 ever. David Cone is another great pick at 74. Unfortunately for the drafting teams, they never saw the fruits trading the two away for what turned out to be little return. One other notable pick 74 with over 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy. Two active pick 74s passed 10 WAR in Tyler Chatwood and John Jay. The other 48 are unremarkable but the Twins can hope on Akil Baddoo. Would you trade Baddoo for 6 million and a catcher? There better be some hope in the catcher.
  23. jorgenswest
    Love it. I doubt many are old enough to remember that Dale Long spent 11 years in the minors showing a good bat but couldn’t field a position. He got his shot at age 29.
  24. jorgenswest
    If his current injury puts him on DL, I would send him on the rehab and get him back that the majors following the rehab. The Twins should have sent him on rehab after the last injury. Otherwise I would keep playing him every day this year and next. The Twins will not contend for a pennant without Buxton approaching his ceiling.
  25. jorgenswest
    Additionally Magill can multiple innings. The Twins need the guy holding the last spot in the pen to be able to go more than 2 innings.
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