jorgenswest

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

The Twins non tendered Mijares a few years ago to avoid arbitration. Mijares had a better track record as a relief pitcher than Duensing. I would think Duensing will be nontendered or DFA'd prior to the end of the season. On the other hand, they took Butera to arbitration and his performance as a catcher is probably a comp to Duensing's as a reliever. They may designate him and use the 10 days to find a trade partner and take any offer.

Fair enough. Technology is reasonable solution. It certainly would help the Twins. Does it matter that this technology might only be available in the major leagues?

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.

He probably needs around 200 plate appearances at AA to know if it is anything other than random variation. You would expect his strike out rate to go up some and then for him to adjust. He may benefit from a full year at the level. When he does hit the majors, it may take a few years of many strike outs before he really begins to pay off. It took Chris Davis a while.

I don't think it is the arrogance of umpires that impacts the strike zone according to catcher. I think it is a catching skill. Since it is a skill, I appreciate watching catchers that are particularly good at it just as I appreciate watching shortstops good at picking a ball in the hole.

A recent post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. This has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post-game discussions: if Diamond is to get but a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strikeouts and walks than ERA. With Doumit as catcher, Diamond's K/BB ratio is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8 starts) Butera 13/2 (3 starts) As a team, pitchers with Mauer catching have a K/BB ratio of 2.63; 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post-game show about the difficulty all his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used a catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball low in the strike zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate. View full article

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

I saw his line, but how did he look? How was his velocity on the fastball? His velocity this year was a drop from 2010-2011 where it sat 90-92 as opposed to 88-90. It would be a good sign if his velocity is returning to the level previous to the 2012 arm trouble.

It is all about Hicks. He is an asset they need in 2014. When Thomas regresses, they can throw Richardson out there and eventually Mastroianni. Those three journeymen can hold the place until Hicks shows some domination in AAA.

I wonder what percent is internationally signed players.

Bryant would be a very good addition. The Twins can never have enough power hitters. Willingham, Doumit and Morneau will be gone by 2015 or earlier. Plouffe and Parmelee may play themselves out of a job. Sano and Arcia can't replace all 5 guys.

I look forward to seeing how Pinto and Herrmann measure up receiving the ball.

Great report. Great read. Thank you.

Great stuff. I look forward to your reports later this week. You have sold me on Manaea.

Nice report. I hope they get to see Pinto or Herrmann in a long enough stretch this year so the Twins can determine if either has the defense to be a viable back up catcher for 2014. I am not sure that the Twins can get back anything more valuable than what Doumit can provide with the bat in 2014 so he may not be an asset on the trade market. If not, he would have value as a switch hitting DH/bench bat/emergency catcher on next year's roster.

The Twins don't have better options for a second catcher. Doumit has to catch someone. I'd rather it be Correia than a young pitcher.

Any insight on Polanco? Why 2B? Didn't he have a good reputation as a SS? Has he outgrown the position? Have they already decided he doesn't have the arm? I am concerned because it is rare for a Low A ball second baseman to progress to the majors. Romero's case might be a little different as the Twins move him the other way on the defensive spectrum. If the Twins project him as a major league utility player or starting middle infielder, he needs to be getting significant time at SS. At 19, he is too young to be exclusively a 2B. I know the Twins have Goodrum, Michael and Santana in front of him. Perhaps the hope was all three will take a step up during the year opening the spot in Cedar Rapids. Perhaps he is a poor defender and no longer seen as a major league middle infielder.

Thanks

I appreciate data, but realize that interpretation is opinion. One observation of the data thus far has been that the Twins have worked the pitch counts of opposing pitchers. They had 4 players last year that saw an above average pitches/plate appearance. Mauer - 4.31 Willingham - 4.20 Carroll - 4.07 Span - 3.89 Dozier saw 3.68 pitches per plate appearance. This year the team average is 4.25 in a few games. Last year was 3.88. I wonder if grouping at the top of the lineup several players who can work the count and see a lot of pitches will cause earlier exits of the opposing starting pitcher. Grouping them certainly will lead to higher pitch count innings. I am not sure what the data means to winning baseball games, but I am interested in following it this year.

There is probably a way to study where the extra runs came. It might be 5 in the first inning. We would probably give a couple back when a couple guys are on base mid game and 8-9 are due up.