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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    He had little value this offseason when the sexual harassment became public. Additionally he was coming off of injury. The only path is to invest in his upside. The return in trade then and now is not going to move the needle. Thoughts of getting a return of Archer or Realmuto pure folly.
  2. jorgenswest
    Not sure. The current plan isn’t working.
  3. jorgenswest
    If it is about conditioning it will take time.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is the training facility better at Fort Myers? Less travel. More getting in shape.
  5. jorgenswest
    Needs to be an infielder. Motter is on the 40. Gordon hasn’t done that well in AAA.
  6. jorgenswest
    The only possible reason is that the front office doesn’t believe that Duffey and Busenitz will not perform well at the major league level. It that is the case, they had last year to make that assessment and it is a critical failure that they did not find better alternatives this winter. On the other hand if they believe either or both can be relievers on a competitive major league team it is a critical failure to keep them in AAA behind Belisle. There is no way I can know whether Duffey or Busenitz have the talent to be a good piece in a bullpen. I do know that the Twins bullpen has cost them more games than reasonable and that responsibility is on the shoulders of the front office and coaching staff.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do they believe in the AAA relievers? I think it is clear that they don’t believe they can help. Belisle does not set a high bar for them to pass. Partial season minor league stats aren’t very helpful in describing how a player will perform in the majors. They are even less helpful for relievers. Maybe the AAA relievers really aren’t going to be helpful. Either the management fails to recognize a reliever in AAA who can truly make a difference or they have failed to develop a reliever in the minors who can truly make a difference. Whichever the case the Belisle signing shines a light on a critical failure that has crippled this season in close games.
  8. jorgenswest
    I know it is still not predictive but Adrianza adds a better glove to similar production at the plate. Projecting forward it is important to realize that this is Adrianza’s prime and likely ceiling and Polanco is a few year away from his prime.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above. Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.
  10. jorgenswest
    This move spotlights the organizations ineptitude at developing a bullpen. Is it an inability to recognize an arm that will be a successful reliever? They certainly have tried to invest in the draft. Is it an inability to develop a bullpen arm? We have seen success in the minors not translate to the majors. Is it poor use of those arms at the major league level? Is it over reliance on a few arms that will not hold up over the course of the season? Belisle is not a fix or even a band aid. At best he is an arm that the organization can give Molitor without worrying about about the long term impact of over use. Falvey must solve this problem or the Twins won’t be successful. A good bullpen is going to give a team a positive record in those close games and that is not a margin the Twins can afford to lose. It might take a full overhaul to turn things around from recognition to development to the manager.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t think we know yet. How can we know? We don’t see him play or workout every day. We don’t have data on the holes in his swing simply by looking at his minor league fangraph page. We don’t know his mindset or resilience looking at that page either. Frankly neither do the volume of pundits who actually see them person very little if at all. We need those who see him every day among the Twins staff to know. They are the only ones in the position to know and it is a must that they have the skill to make the correct assessment. Gordon could come up and get off to a start like Parmelee and Santana or he could start off like Dozier. That data really won’t tell us a lot about next year. Grossman could also start a stretch of an 800 OPS through the all star break. That won’t tell us about August. If the Twins are sellers, bringing up Gordon for the last two months has some value towards his getting his feet wet. It won’t answer the question about whether he should be a starting SS or 2B next year. We have to rely on the skill of the Twins staff. They are the only ones in position to answer that question.
  12. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins don’t need to call Gordon up to find out what they have in him. They see him every day. The see his command of the strike zone and should be able to identify the holes major league pitchers will exploit. They see his play at shortstop and better be able to determine whether that will work at the major league level. If Gordon were to struggle like many or do well like Danny Santana it shouldn’t really tell them more long term than they already see if the minors.
  13. jorgenswest
    My plan at catcher this year is play Garver four times a week. My hope is that he earns the job for next year with his performance the remainder of the season. It is way too early to make that call. Castro is not a solution as a starter next year but would be a good backup to Garver. If they can find a better veteran than Rupp or Wilson to pair with Garver this year it would help.
  14. jorgenswest
    Let’s assume Castro fully recovers. He still is in decline with the bat and glove as he hits 32. He doesn’t have space to decline from his prime and still be a starting catcher. From ages 28-30 his slash is 221/308/377. It isn’t reasonable to expect a hitter at 32 to match the average of his 28-30 seasons. The Twins need a starter for 2019. I am hoping Garver’s performance this year earns him that role.
  15. jorgenswest
    Question on Gordon... If they bring him up this year do they control through 28 or 29? He could easily struggle this year and be very valuable his age 29 (or is it 30) season. That is the argument for waiting as well as continuing to develop his defense at SS. I find the argument persuasive but I am not entirely convinced. If after 150 AAA plate appearances he is showing good command of the strike zone and is barreling up balls that he should barrel up, I think I would be on the side of calling him up. I am not sure the data will help us see progress in this area but strike out and walk rates as well as ISO start to become reliable at that point. Calling him up for the last two months after a strong showing in AAA (as shown by strike zone command and barrelsj will give him valuable experience towards a successful start next year. I really need to be convinced to give up a season in his prime though.
  16. jorgenswest
    I see three alternatives. By waiting until a few weeks into the age 23 season next year the Twins get control through age 29. That has a lot of value. He also can spend more time developing as a SS in AAA which also has a lot of value. Calling him up at the deadline as a result of a trade of Dozier would give him two months of regular play. At that point the Twins would not need to return him and exercise an option. This gives him both a longer stretch in AAA and experience in the majors heading into next season. It might be the best option for his 2019 readiness. Call him up now to play SS and then move Dozier once Polanco is ready. That is a more selfish desire for me to see him play. Rationally I know how difficult it is to play at the major league level and struggles at the plate and in the field ghouls be expected. It is a probably not a wise move for the Twins. The most long term value sets involves waiting a few weeks into next year. If the Twins are sellers at the deadline they would be wise to capture that value.
  17. jorgenswest
    Even without injury, I don’t think it was reasonable to plan for Castro to be the main catcher at the end of his contract. There isn’t enough space in his game to continue to be the starting catcher as he declines into his 30s. Ideally Garver steps in up and starts over 100 games next year with Castro getting the back up load. If Garver isn’t a solution they should aggressively go after Realmuto.
  18. jorgenswest
    Their hope is in the young former top prospects. They won’t truly contend for a championship without them approaching their upside. I wouldn’t give up on Buxton’s upside until he is 27. I think Sano cares a great deal. I also think he will always have trouble with weight and conditioning and hence injuries. They need to stay the course with Kepler. Their hope is in that trio in combination with the young starters Berrios and Romero being aces. They are the recipe for a championship. The odds are not good but trading off any of the bats for lower ceiling but reliable talent won’t be enough. Stay the course.
  19. jorgenswest
    It really comes down to how much the Twins believe in Garver as a starter this year and next. If they see him as a back up, go for Realmuto. If they see him as a starter, the one year guys would be a great addition to split time with him in his rookie year. There is so much to learn and so much more prep work at catcher. They should not count on Castro as a reliable solution as a starter next year.
  20. jorgenswest
    If you believe in his bat patience. If not, look elsewhere. It is way too early to judge his performance based on data. In another 40 plate appearance you might look at strike out and walk rates but even then you have to factor in adjusting to the level. Patience.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would think 4 games a week would be the right workload if he isn’t hampered by any nagging injuries. Seems like he has been close to the rate since Castro left though I think he was held back one game after taking a foul ball in the knee.
  22. jorgenswest
    Just looked through signings from last year. There are a few near 74 where teams saved about 125000- 150000 with the pick and were able to add that amount. There is one case where the Mariners paid well below slot and gained 450000 to add to their pool. Realistically would 500K be enough to make a difference? The difference between top 10 money and slot at 20 is far more than 500K. In fact it is far more than the 74 slot value.
  23. jorgenswest
    Murphy turned 26 a few months before they traded him. Their are plenty of players that didn’t look very good as they turn 26. How excited were we about Dozier through age 25? Murphy was awful at the plate last year but also young enough to hope that he would bat enough to be a major leaguer.
  24. jorgenswest
    At what number would you have sold the pick? Is there a number?
  25. jorgenswest
    An interesting preseason take from The Good Phight blog. https://www.thegoodphight.com/2018/1/24/16921130/phillies-cameron-rupp-catcher-break-out-season-2018 Hs bat certainly has more potential than Bobby Wilson’s particularly against lefties. He probably isn’t close to Wilson’s level defensively.
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