jorgenswest

The Royals threw 2287 97+ fastballs in 2014. The Twins threw 1. They need some fire in the pen. Burton is gone. Swarzak and Duensing should go. Thielbar and Fien have an option left. That flexibility should save their spot on the 40 but not the 25.

Several are saying he won't come to Minnesota. If the money is big enough, he will come. I didn't know I would have to be clear about the age. I will try again. Most people at 60 are thinking forward to retirement. Whether he stops at around 67 like LaRussa or Leyland or goes longer, in his mind he has to be thinking one big contract. So no, there isn't a retirement age. There is a peak to the opportunity. He will never be more respected. No team would be concerned about his age at 60. I think he opted out because he is aware that he is at peak value. Anyone motivated can buy high. Will the a Twins buy high?

At his age, it is his last big contract before retiring or moving to front office. He goes where the money takes him. The Twins can afford him. Pay the guy.

The Twins absolutely can not expect Pelfrey to pitch well from the pen. Throughout his career, the drop off in his performance with runners on base is significant. He would need a bullpen role where he starts an inning. He can't pitch from the stretch. That would limit a manager's ability to use the pen.

All three are out of options. At some point next year, each of the three will be DFA'd. I would nontender all three and look for someone else's nontender that can have the flexibility to start in the minors. They can also be nontendered and resigned to a minor league contract. Schafer did have an OK two months. They all have had OK stretches. Any projection should be based on the last three years and not two months. All three project to be fringe major leaguers.

He is young. He will continue to improve. I am all for signing or trading for a top quartile outfielder. Short of that, I would prefer the at bats go to Hicks, Rosario, Buxton or Sano (with Plouffe in LF) next year..

Buxton will help prevent runs better than anyone they will bring in. Bourjos? By the end of the year Buxton will be a better hitter than Bourjos and may be from day 1. While I am on the side of those that say the a Twins should not worry about service tea. I won't argue them waiting a couple weeks to get the extra year.

I hope the a Twins build their bullpen without Pelfrey. I just looked at some recent Twin relievers and how they fared as starters in Perkins, Hawkins and Nathan. All three were failed starters. None of the three has showed more than normal difficulty in high leverage situations. I don't see how the Twins would consider pitching someone in relief where there are such obvious struggles in high leverage situations or with runners on base. While he may have a good ERA in the role, he is certain to give up a high rate of inherited runners. If he can't win a job in the starting rotation, they need to release him and develop a younger pitcher in relief that will eventually grow into a late inning role

In the AL this year the k/bb ratio drops from 2.74 to 2.50 when moving from low to high leverage. The OPS against is actually .003 lower in high leverage situations. Pelfrey k/bb ratio drops from 2.19 to 1.02 when moving from low to high leverage. His OPS against increases from .716 to .801 over his career. It is hard to see how he would be able to have a significant role in the pen beyond mop up.

The other questions... Can he pitch with runners on base? As a starter he can't. Can he warm up quickly? Can he pitch on back to back days?

I don't think you would want to bring him in with runners on base. His performance drops when runners on base and pitching from stretch more than most. Any relief re would need to be one that usually starts an inning

I am still not convinced this is a rebuild. It has been a patch with older filler for three years in hopes of giving the impression of being competitive. While they are selling pieces they don't have under control next year (Fuld excluded), any team with a bad record would do the same. The direction will be telling this winter. Do they seek decline phase players and try to squeeze out one more year? Do they instead try to find talent from younger players that have been cast off after a small sample stay in the majors? Are they willing to turn loose Pelfrey in spite of the commitment to create time for younger players?

Is there any significance to his performance in a few games? Shouldn't there be enough games in which to see Schafer play? Shouldn't Gardy already know? I don't doubt your reasoning Brock. I am only concerned that his play the last two months will somehow take precedence over the last 4 years. An OK 100 plate appearances might stop the Twins from looking for a different solution.

Both Santana and Escobar are solid enough to be utility players on a good team. Escobar is more like a Punto and Santana a Bonifacio. While on a bad team, they have an opportunity to improve their command of the strike zone with regular play. Keep them both in place for the remainder of the year.

According to the Braves guy, he is not a good defensive CF. UZR and DRS confirm this in the season where he played significant innings. After 1251 PA, he has shown he can't hit. He has been released by the Astros and Braves. He is hitting .163 this year. Then there is the HGH suspension and felony drug arrest. It's hard to see the downside. Worst case, in a small sample he will hit a little and play the game the right way. The Twins respond by keeping him on the 40 without looking for a better solution. He was a top prospect in 2008. That has to mean something. The Twins top prospects that year were Nick Blackburn and Joe Benson. Maybe they are available. More warm bodies. What's the downside?

Isn't the option only used if they send him back down this year? Seems kind of late in the year for that to be necessary.

I look forward to the day when there is downside to rostering a player hitting .160 and the bar for being on the roster is somewhere above "warm body". How much more upside does Shafer have than Farris? Is there any value in rewarding the efforts efforts of a player on the AAA roster? Hicks could have taken his spot in AAA. Farris can also play infield. I don't think either is worthy of a winter spot in the 40, but I would have rewarded Farris' efforts with a few months in the majors.

We saw the lack of flexibility the Twins had with their bench last night. With 13 pitchers, there are three options on the bench assuming everyone is healthy. That isn't enough. They need another CF. Joe Mauer will return. They need to work to getting back to 12. There are spots for May, Meyer and Milone right now. There have been all July. It isn't lack of openings that have kept the Twins from evaluating them for next year. Here is another thought. DFA Correia and Burton today. Option Pino and Darnell. Bring up Meyer, Milone, May and Farris. Meyer and Farris need to be added to the 40. The timings need to work to match rotation spots, but Farris can certainly take Correia's spot today. Evaluate the three in the starting rotation. Evaluate Farris in a super utility role. He is only one year older than Nunez. Reports are that he is a versatile defender that is more than adequate defensively. He may be a better option in that role than Nunez. It would be good to find out. Meanwhile, Hicks can get time in AAA.

He isn't going to hit start hitting .180. He may start hitting .250. If you mix that with an ISO that ranks 147th of 156 qualified batters you get a poor offensive player.

Why shouldn't Nolasco's situation be good with the Twins? He is in a home park that suppresses home runs to left handed hitters. He has thrown every pitch to a veteran catcher that Perkins and Hughes love.

One of the players this site has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left-handed LOOGY. His line this year: 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32 innings, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option, with Pedro Hernandez providing depth.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find the type of success Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left-handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left-handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25y.o., AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk- 25y.o., AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. In these trades there were no high-potential players sent back to the team dealing the LOOGY. Some were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25 years old. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlins the previous season. None of "prospects" appeared on his team's Top Ten lists, though Vandenhurk had pitched in the Futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. Download attachment: Brian Duensing.jpg How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is six years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit_Ryan_600_321.jpg "I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." - Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Ryan Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers. Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games. Click here to view the article

There are 52 left handed relievers (excluding closers) that have pitched at least 20 games. Of the 52, Brian Duensing ranks 36th in FIP at 3.87 and 44th in K rate at 16.3%. Andrew Miller is at 1.82 and 39.6%. Andrew Miller will get a good return. Between Miller and Duensing are other left handed relievers on selling teams. Duensing will be attractive if he has a low cost of acquisition. The acquiring team will offer a player that they would need to take off the 40 to make room for Duensing. Should the Twins trade Duensing for that player?

Download attachment: Suzuki_Kurt_Face_US_720.jpg Mike Berardino reported this weekend that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start this year for the Minnesota Twins at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to give the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has been a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. Does it matter that Suzuki is a poor at framing pitches? Perhaps he makes up for it in working with pitchers and pitch selection. If a catcher has an impact on pitcher performance, how might it show up in the stats? FIP uses the defense independent stats of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher might impact home runs, but if he impacts anything it will be strikeouts and walks. Suzuki's has worked for two clubs in each of the last two years. Add 2011 and there is a sample of over 12000 batters faced. How does he compare to the 12 other catchers who caught for Oakland or Washington in the last three years? [TABLE=width: 576] Year Team Suzuki Others Suzuki Others Suzuki Others [/TD] k/bb k/bb K% K% BB% BB% BF 2013 OAK 1.86 2.84 17.06% 19.66% 9.19% 6.91% 381 2013 WSN 2.78 3.31 19.68% 21.15% 7.08% 6.38% 2795 2012 WSN 2.6 2.69 20.88% 21.80% 8.02% 8.13% 1547 2012 OAK 2.15 2.75 17.54% 19.32% 8.16% 7.04% 2720 2011 OAK 2.13 2.67 18.46% 20.18% 8.67% 7.51% 4811 [TD]3yr TOT 2.31 2.84 18.79% 20.45% 8.13% 7.20% 12254 [/TABLE] Over the last three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Every year over the last three and on every team, pitchers who happen to be throwing to Suzuki strike out fewer batters and walk more batters. Small sample size? It is over 12000 batters. Maybe he has had teammates who are very good catchers? It was 12 different guys on two different teams. The Twins needed a backup catcher. The free agent and trade market for catchers dried up quickly and only the catchers with poor framing numbers remained. Suzuki appears to be the best of what was left. Signing a veteran catcher to start in 40-50 games seemed a good move. Before spring training, Ryan has said he expects him to start. It seems the plan all along was to seek a starter. If that is the case, is Suzuki the right guy? Click here to view the article

That's too bad. A lot of lost content. I think content trumps looks and ease of use, but probably not the revenue. Doesn't matter for those who want to banter endlessly in the forums though. Perhaps that is where you need to focus and get the most ad revenue.