jorgenswest

With the signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier, comments overwhelmingly went like these below. No risk? No impact on the 40 man roster? Alex Presley Brooks Raley Darin Mastroianni Signing decline phase players (even to minor league contracts) does have a risk. It kept the Twins from seeking other younger solutions. It invests playing time into players with no upside. It costs a few younger players on the 40 man roster who have a better long term shot at being a role player. Everyone wasn't on the no risk side of the conversation.

[SIZE=3]S[FONT=arial]ample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider as reliable. For pitchers, strikeout rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced (BF) and ground ball and fly ball rates stabilize at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off due to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a change in level of minor league and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is perhaps reasonable to assume that K-rate (K%) and ground ball rate (GB%) stabilize earlier than other rates. Looking at the levels: [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Minnesota[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ricky Nolasco [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]134 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]41% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kyle Gibson [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]26.7 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]129 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]12% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kevin Correia [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]33.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]125 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Phil Hughes [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]28 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]121 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Mike Pelfrey [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]119 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]8% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]15% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Samuel Deduno [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]30.9 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]83 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]49% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]58% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Anthony Swarzak [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]28.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]MIN [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]69 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]10% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]46% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3] [FONT=arial]A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate won’t cut it. Nolasco has seen a significant drop in strikeout rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than when with the Dodgers. With the Twins, he was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders. Maybe the Twins staff took notice: yesterday’s game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs.[/FONT] [/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 565"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][B]Rochester[/B] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]Age [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]Team [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]BF [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2014 K% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2013 K% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2014 GB% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]2013 GB% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Kris Johnson [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]29.7 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC/MIN [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]113 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]22% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]17% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]50% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]50% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Alex Meyer [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24.4 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]112 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]31% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]41% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]57% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Scott Diamond [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]27.9 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]105 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]13% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]10% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]35% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]45% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Trevor May [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24.8 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]96 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]32% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]33% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]38% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Logan Darnell [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]25.3 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]88 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]24% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]19% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]41% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]49% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3]Yohan Pino [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30.5 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]ROC [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]85 [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]32% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]22% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]30% [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3]35% [/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Meyer, May and Pino haven’t hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. May’s mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]New Britain[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Taylor Rogers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]117 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]53% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Pat Dean [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]113 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]12% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]40% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Sean Gilmartin [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]99 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]38% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]D.J. Baxendale [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]93 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]47% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]33% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Matt Summers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]NBR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]76 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]53% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial] Gilmartin’s rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to where he was when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Fort Myers[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Tyler Duffey [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM/NB [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]119 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]15% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]35% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]44% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Jose Berrios [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20.1 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]114 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]39% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]41% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Mason Melotakis [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]94 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]18% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]46% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Alex Wimmers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25.6 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]81 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]16% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]45% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]26% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Steven Gruver [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]74 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]14% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]54% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]50% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Tim Shibuya [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]24.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]FTM [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]70 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]13% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]69% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial] I expect Berrios’ numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasn’t pitched much either year. Let’s hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick. [/FONT][/SIZE][TABLE="class: grid, width: 564"] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial][B]Cedar Rapids[/B] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Age [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Team [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]BF [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 K% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial] [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2014 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]2013 GB% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Aaron Slegers [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]21.8 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]116 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]27% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]61% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]60% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ryan Eades [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22.5 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]114 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]21% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]31% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Kohl Stewart [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19.7 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]98 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]29% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]49% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]43% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Felix Jorge [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]20.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]82 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]17% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]29% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]37% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]48% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Ethan Mildren [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]23 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]72 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]25% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]19% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]65% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]51% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]Josue Montanez [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]22.4 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]CR [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]70 [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]27% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]14% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]37% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [TD][SIZE=3][FONT=arial]42% [/FONT][/SIZE][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [SIZE=3][FONT=arial][SIZE=3] Sleger’s combination of strikeouts and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable. Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch data rates (swing and miss rate and others) stabilize, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events (number of pitches) than batters faced events or ball in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.[/SIZE] [/FONT][/SIZE] View full article

Sample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider. For pitchers, strike out rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced and ground ball and fly ball rate stabilizes at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a step up in classification and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that the 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is reasonable to assume that k-rate and ground ball rate would stabilize earlier than other rates. Looking at the levels [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Minnesota Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Ricky Nolasco 31.5 MIN 134 10% 20% 50% 41% Kyle Gibson 26.7 MIN 129 12% 18% 51% 51% Kevin Correia 33.8 MIN 125 10% 13% 42% 42% Phil Hughes 28 MIN 121 22% 19% 31% 30% Mike Pelfrey 30.4 MIN 119 8% 15% 42% 44% Samuel Deduno 30.9 MIN 83 22% 16% 49% 58% Anthony Swarzak 28.8 MIN 69 10% 18% 46% 44% [/TABLE] A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate won’t cut it. Nolasco has a significant drop in strike out rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than with the Dodgers. He was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders with the Twins. Maybe the Twins staff took notice. Yesterday’s game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 565] Rochester Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Kris Johnson 29.7 ROC/MIN 113 [/TD] 22% 17% 50% 50% Alex Meyer 24.4 ROC 112 31% 30% 41% 57% Scott Diamond 27.9 ROC 105 13% 10% 35% 45% Trevor May 24.8 ROC 96 32% 24% 33% 38% Logan Darnell 25.3 ROC 88 24% 19% 41% 49% Yohan Pino 30.5 ROC 85 32% 22% [TD]30% 35% [/TABLE] Meyer, May and Pino haven’t hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. May’s mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] New Britain Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Taylor Rogers 23.5 NBR 117 22% 16% 42% 53% Pat Dean 25.1 NBR 113 18% 12% 44% 40% Sean Gilmartin 24.1 NBR 99 23% 18% 31% 38% D.J. Baxendale 23.5 NBR 93 13% 18% 47% 33% Matt Summers 24.8 NBR 76 17% 17% 53% 44% [/TABLE] Gilmartin’s rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Fort Myers Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Tyler Duffey 23.5 FTM/NB 119 15% 18% 35% 44% Jose Berrios 20.1 FTM 114 18% 22% 39% 41% Mason Melotakis 23 FTM 94 19% 18% 50% 46% Alex Wimmers 25.6 FTM 81 16% 23% 45% 26% Steven Gruver 25 FTM 74 14% 23% 54% 50% Tim Shibuya 24.8 FTM 70 13% 17% 69% 48% [/TABLE] I would expect Berrios’ numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasn’t pitched much either year. Let’s hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Cedar Rapids Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Aaron Slegers 21.8 CR 116 23% 27% 61% 60% Ryan Eades 22.5 CR 114 21% 19% 31% 48% Kohl Stewart 19.7 CR 98 17% 29% 49% 43% Felix Jorge 20.4 CR 82 17% 29% 37% 48% Ethan Mildren 23 CR 72 25% 19% 65% 51% Josue Montanez 22.4 CR 70 27% 14% 37% 42% [/TABLE] Sleger’s combination of strike outs and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable. Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch level data rates (swing and miss rate) stabilizes, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events than batters faced or balls in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.

I wonder if Drew is better off waiting until June 4. He might believe that his value will be better at that point and he will have multiple teams competing for him. Why sign now? The only way this works is if Boras is in the middle of it and there is certainty he will sign. I am not sure that Boras would play ball. The signing would have to come first and the trust would have to be with the Red Sox. Would it be collusion?

My impressions... Good at bats. Plouffe and Colabello seem to be taking much better at bats this year. Lots of walks. Knocked out Masterson in less than 4 innings. Fien, Burton and Perkins did well. Some key double plays. Going home following a .500 road trip. Took a road series from a playoff team. I enjoyed the the first week. Good to have baseball back.

I think you are right about Chicago. They didn't have young talent near ready so they went out and acquired it. Seems like the Twins are in a similar space. While they may have expected Sano and Meyer to play this year, they still have several other spots to fill. They chose veterans. The White chose the upside of youth. Both teams don't look very good this year. If the White Sox develop two players out of those 7, they will be two players better off.

The contrast in rebuild between the a White a Sox and Twins is shown in the acquisition of 27 and under players since last opening day. White Sox Adam Eaton Adrian Nieto Avisail Garcia Jose Abreau Leary Garcia Maikel Clato Conor Gilaspie almost makes the list. He was acquired last spring training. Twins Phil Hughes (actually it is his age 28 season and he is older than any of the White Sox 7) There has been an argument that the Twins can't go young because they don't gave any young players. Maybe they need to go out and acquire them. Maybe they need to let Willingham go and create the need for an Adam Eaton. Maybe they need to deal a Perkins to get a young talent like Avisail Garcia. It has been said that it can't hurt to sign guys like Bartlett, Kubel and Guerrier. Maybe it does hurt. Maybe it keeps the Twins from looking for younger options. Teams need young players to rebuild. The Twins enter this season with 14 players in their 30s. I don't know if it is an opening day record for them. I do know that only the 1991 Twins ended the season having played more players in their 30s. They played 15. They weren't rebuilding. They were going for it with a core that was getting older. What are these Twins doing?

I thought and hoped this would be the year where the Twins would go with youth. I should have known better. The direction for the winter roster construction was made clear when they retained Josh Willingham last August. Earl Battey was the catcher when I first became a young Twin fan. I recall his western oil 8x10 card hanging my wall among other Twin heroes. Those years were great. I didn't know how lucky I was to follow a team that was competitive or at least entertaining every year. There have been several difficult stretches in the 50+ years since. Most difficult were teams that you knew were not going to compete and offered little hope for the future. The late 70s and the 90s were the most difficult until recently. Twice the Twins emerged from those stretches of mediocrity by going with young players. I remember the 1981-82 Twins well. After the trade of Carew in 1978, the Twins tried to hang on with a 1979 team that had 9 players in their 30s over the course of the season. They were mediocre and you knew they weren't getting better. They flipped the roster and had only two players in their 30s in 1981 and 1982. Ron Washington was 30 and had 470 plate appearances. The other was 30 year old Fernando Arroyo who pitched all of 13.2 innings. While they were awful, the young players also gave hope for the future. The foundation for the good run from 1987-1992 was set in the early 80s. The next tough stretch ran from 1993-1998. In 1998 they entered the season with one of their oldest roster in team history. The 11 players in their 30s on the roster that year accounted for 2348 plate appearances and 484 innings. They reversed course in 1999 rostering just 5 players in their 30s accounting for 881 plate appearances and 196 innings. They stayed that same course in 2000 with similar numbers. Those teams set the foundation for the next successful run in the 2000s. While the 1981-82 and 1999-00 teams had a very poor record, they are among my favorite. They offered the hope of young players getting better. A good game is a glimpse of a future from a Gary Gaetti rather than a memory of a past from a Josh Willingham. Two years ago I wrote about my concern with the Twins entering a cycle of mediocrity with their roster decisions. In truth they would have to improve to become mediocre. Last year, a similar article about projections of their aging offense. They ended the year with their second oldest roster since 1998 and a significant decline in offense. This year the Twins start the season with 14 players in their 30s. That must be an opening day record for them. I continue to wait for the shift in direction. The setting of a new foundation. Perhaps it will come next year. A signal of hope for the future. If not, this article will be written again next year as it has the previous two.

He was a top 100 prospect that had a reasonable age 23 rookie season. It certainly shouldn't hurt his status. While shopping him, they aren't going to give him away. He will get a good return. He can probably return a similarly ranked starting pitcher prospect or catcher or centerfielder. Alex Meyer is in that neighborhood. If they are worried Montero won't bounce back, maybe Josmil Pinto would be a fit. What of the Twins gave them the choice of any two pitching prospects not named Meyer or Stewart (who can't be traded yet)? Would you make that move?

There seems to be conflicting reports on Guerrier and velocity. It could be different guns. Others have said he has tops out at 89. That is very different from 92-93.

Great work!

Home run rate stabilizes at 170 regular season plate appearances. A home run off of Wainwright or 5 off of AAAA are equally meaningless in determining a roster spot.

There are two teams with winning records the last three seasons in the Grapefruit League. The Twins and Tigers. In fact, the Twins have the longest string of winning records and haven't had a losing season since 2007 thanks to the performance of players like Aaron Hicks, Luke Hughes, Cole DeVries and Matt Maloney. ... and it means nothing. Spring training records and individual stat lines have no meaning. They shouldn't be used to argue that one player or another should make the roster. Think otherwise? Let's argue here. Let's avoid arguing the meaning of these numbers in every post about who should make the roster. I would suggest that we avoid using any spring training stats, but that isn't reasonable. The best I can hope for is that they would simply be ignored. They still have a place. I look at them. They tell a story of the games. They add to my enjoyment of following the Twins in the spring. If Luke Hughes or Aaron Hicks or Miguel Sano have a multi home run game, I enjoy the moment. I also realize that they can not be used to argue whether a player should make the team. I am not suggesting that battles for roster spots are not won in spring training. They will be and should be. The Twins staff will see these players every day. They will see the bat speed, the approach at the plate, the defensive fundamentals and range, the movement on the pitches and the effectiveness of a new pitch. Players will improve in strength or have worked their tail off this winter to get in better shape. Parker may be able to show video of an improved swing. The experienced coaching staff will see the skills and evaluate. The jobs will be won or lost in those eyes. It can't be the numbers. Let's not use them to support arguments about roster spots. When used to argue roster, let's ignore them. Meanwhile let's look forward to the Twins taking the field and continuing their reign as the Grapefruit Kings.

Thanks for the reasoned assessment. Long term, any investment of innings into Meyer, Gibson or any of the three under team control out of options guys will help in future years. What's is this year's cost (in wins) risk in giving them starts over Correia or even Pelfrey?

Mike Berardino reported yesterday that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to gibe the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has shown to be a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. Pitch Framing Data Does it matter that Suzuki is a poor at framing pitches? Perhaps he makes it up in working with pitchers and pitch selection. If a catcher has an impact on pitcher performance, how might it show up in the stats. FIP uses the defense independent stats of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher might impact home runs, but if he impacts anything it will be strikeouts and walks. Suzuki's has worked for two clubs in each of the last two years. Add 2011 and there is a sample of over 12000 batters faced. How does he compare to the 12 other catchers who caught for Oakland or Washington in the last three years? [TABLE=width: 576] Year Team Suzuki Others Suzuki Others Suzuki Others k/bb k/bb K% K% BB% BB% BF 2013 OAK 1.86 2.84 17.06% 19.66% 9.19% 6.91% 381 2013 WSN 2.78 3.31 19.68% 21.15% 7.08% 6.38% 2795 2012 WSN 2.6 2.69 20.88% 21.80% 8.02% 8.13% 1547 2012 OAK 2.15 2.75 17.54% 19.32% 8.16% 7.04% 2720 2011 OAK 2.13 2.67 18.46% 20.18% 8.67% 7.51% 4811 3yr TOT 2.31 2.84 18.79% 20.45% 8.13% 7.20% 12254 [/TABLE] Over three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Every year over the last three and on every team, pitchers who happen to be throwing to Suzuki strike out fewer batters and walk more batters. Small sample size? It is over 12000 batters. Maybe he has had teammates that are very good catchers? It was 12 different guys on two different teams. The Twins needed a back up catcher. The free agent and trade market for catchers dried up quickly and only the catchers with poor framing numbers remained. Suzuki appears to be the best of what was left. Signing a veteran catcher to start in 40-50 games seemed a good move. Before spring training, Ryan has said he expects him to start. It seems the plan all along was to seek a starter. If that is the case, is Suzuki the right guy? [TABLE=width: 576] [/TABLE]

Great stuff Parker

He projects better. Last three seasons wRC+ Drew 92,80,109 Peralta 122,86,123 Both will likely move away from SS before end of contract. Perralta has more bat to make that work.

I used play index to find all 30 year old starting shortstops from 2001 to 2010. There were 17. Of those 17, five were still starting at SS at 33. Rollins, Jeter, Gonzalez, Cabrera and Tejada. Others with good enough bats changed positions like Michael Young and Carlos Guillen changed positions. I think it is unlikely that Stephen Drew will be a solid starting SS in 2016. I wouldn't give up a pick for a shorter contract.

I am little more skeptical about the defense. The given span was 5 years. At that length, why not the whole career? Why not just the two years since injury? The 5 years include 2009-2011 which were the only three years that he didn't have a negative in either UZR or DRS. I think it reasonable to question how many more years Drew can play well defensively at shortstop. It may be a factor in his continued availability. If teams are giving up a pick, they want to get some longer term value. Is he still a good shortstop in 2016? Do the Twins want a liability at that position at a time many of the younger players reach the majors?

It is essential long term that the Twins develop starting pitching with several years under team control. They can't do that with short term mediocre starters in the rotation. Meyer needs to be in the rotation early if not opening day. He needs to adjust to the majors with a reasonably fresh arm. The a Twins don't need a repeat of those high pitch count games that Gibson had in AAA. Gibson needs to be in the rotation opening day. Correia seems like he would be a good fit in the pen. He holds on runners. He maintains his performance with runners on base. He has a long record of health. He can be called on to start for a dtd pitcher without needing to call up someone from AAA. Pelfrey is the opposite. A poor fit in the pen. His performance drops with runners on base. If Worley, Deduno or Diamond get the opportunity to displace Pelfrey and find success, it will get a good sign for the long term.

There are other options. Phillips was mentioned above. Infante and Johnson are free agents. David Adams and Corban Joseph have minor league OBPs better than Rosario and have more experience at the upper level of the minors. Rosario's much younger age makes him the better long term prospect, but not the better option for 2014. Dozier home run surge the second half helps, but there is little else to distinguish him for the two Yankee minor leaguers. He probably doesn't sustain the increase in HR/FB rate next year. I don't see the motivation on the Yankees part to make this deal.