jorgenswest

DocBauer brought up minor league experience. It is hard to compare innings in the lower minirs with some getting those innings in college. I have listed below innings in AA/AAA. I added AA in order to make sure Meyer's season cut short by injury was included. Hernandez 24 Price 21 Lester 52 Samardzija 59 Ventura 31 Kershaw 16 Kluber 87 Scherzer 26 Alex Meyer's 40 AA/AAA starts is on the bigger side of the middle of that group. It certainly wouldn't keep teams from calling him up. His walk rate wouldn't keep teams from calling him up either. Consistency? All of those pitchers were inconsistent with their control. They all had bad starts. Want consistency in the minors? Look for a control pitcher like Albers. The Twins are waiting for something that won't reasonably happen in a pitcher with great stuff.

Are we confident in the Twins handling and developing of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June? We don't really know what has prevented the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond? Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates? Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 in AAA prior to coming to the majors. Hernandez 4.9 Price 4.6 Lester 4.3 Samardzija 4.2 Ventura 3.9 Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts) Kluber 3.9 Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA) It isn't unusual for pitchers that throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA. Why does their walk per 9 go down in the majors? I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could be the quality of the umpiring. High walk rates does not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June. Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not. That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often.

Is this an argument to go with a veteran? Meyer and May will likely struggle. I would have given all of Correia's starts to them last year, but I am not certain they would have performed better in their rookie year. I do think that there second 25 starts would be better than their first 25. I doubt Viola brought in many fans in his first 50 starts.

I still don't see the upside of a low leverage relief role. It does nothing to develop a talent for the future, the role has little impact on the team's won loss record and there is no trade market for low leverage relievers. It does hurt the future to give him that role only to see him leave at the end of the year. They just develop any potential relief talent for another team's benefit in 2016.

I don't see the pedigree. His performance drops much more than the norm with runners on base. Any relief role would need to be one that starts an inning. Mid game relievers don't have that luxury. I also wonder if he has the kind of arm that can pitch on back to back days. Suppose he puts up good numbers in low leverage relief appearances. What is the upside for the Twins? He gets a year to adjust to the role and is somewhere else in 2016. Low leverage relievers won't be in demand at the deadline. No reason to keep him in hopes of trade value. They just lose the opportunity to give those innings to someone with upside. Best case- Pelfrey wins the fifth starter job and puts up a league average ERA before he is traded. Worst case- he plays out the year as a low leverage reliever before hitting fee agency Unthinkable case- he gets extended after a few months of good relief numbers. Liveable case - he doesn't win the fifth starter job and is released

There is a difference between spring training performance and spring training stats. Spring training stats are meaningless. They should not be kept or reported. Spring training performance is about the velocity, movement and command of his pitches. The skill of the staff in assessing his ability to contribute to the team based on the way he throws as seen in work outs and games is critical in determing whether he is released or wins the fifth starter spot.

What does it mean to contend? To me, a team isn't contending if they haven't spent a day in first place (or even in one of the wild card slots) in the previous two weeks It isn't contending if an occasional win streak puts you a few games a way from the second wild card spot. It is possible to bring yourself into contention by continuing that win streak, but teams have to get there. Being a competitive is a lower bar. Competitive teams score more runs than they give up. The Twins have neither contended or been competitive in quite a while. Various objective sources do not project the Twins to contend or be competitive this year either.

As I started my comment, I believe the Royals will suffer from losing Shields in two ways. They lose his starts and the bullpen will have a bigger work load. That will lead to more runs given up and more losses. I also believe they will continue to have the skills that will give them more wins than their Pythagorean projection whatever it is for 2015.

Losing Shields will hurt in two ways. They will not only lose his starts but also work the bullpen more in games he would have started. For that reason, they should drop back. However, I think the the Pythagorean projection is a little misused here. There has been several studies about teams that outperform or underperform their projections. Teams that outperform their projections win more one run games and have a more even distribution of offensive runs scored (fewer big innings) and are good at preventing runs with their pitching/defense. Teams with good bullpens will win more games than Pythagorean projects. Teams adept at playing small ball as measured by stolen bases, sacrifice hits and fewer home runs more evenly distribute their offensive runs and win more games than pythagorean projects. The Royals have a very good bullpen. No one played better small ball last year. They won more games than their Pythagorean projection because of their skill set. It wasn't a matter of luck. Won't they bring a similar skill set forward next year?

I don't think it is coming from the Twins. It doesn't make any sense to extend him into his free agent year. At this point his career OPS+ is 98. It is extremely rare that a player will outperform their career OPS+ through age 27 during their age 32 season or older. Trade him by age 30.

Schafer was not viewed as a good defensive centerfielder in Atlanta or Houston. Those were reports we saw as he came to Minnesota. I am not sure what happened in two months that he is now viewed as a good defensive CF. Perhaps it is in comparison to the guys the Twins have played in the outfield the last two years. If he was a good defensive CF, he doesn't get DFA'd twice. He is DFA'd because he can't hit well enough to play a corner and his defense in CF isn't good enough to maintain a fourth OF job. He helps a team with his base running and late inning defensive sub on a corner. That fifth OF role worked when teams carried 10-11 pitchers. It will be an encouraging sign when the Twins have enough talent to force his third DFA. Meanwhile he is good enough to make the roster and be in the starting line up conversation for a bad team.

Thanks for the fix. This was my source http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

The Twins can push back Alex Meyer's service time if they want. It will likely cost one start from the 5th starter. The first time they will need a 5th starter will be April 12. The next time would be April 19. By that date, he would not have enough days left to earn a year of service (169 needs 172). Alex Meyer can earn the job in spring and get sent down missing only one start as the 5th starter. In any case, service time should not be an argument for a 25 year old. It is likely that a 25 year old season would be better than the 31 year old season you would be gaining by delaying.

I don't agree that they can be successful buying a starting rotation. Last year they bought three starters. They had another in his second year of purchase. One was great and three were awful. It would be hard to find three starters who performed as poorly. Together the four accounted for about a third of the budget and 11 games under .500. Can they actually buy it? That's what they bought last year. The Twins improved to 70 wins by actually buying 80% of a rotation. What part of the budget will the Twins spend on Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Pelfrey this year? I think they will have a total of 16 years committed to them. Can we get 10-12 good seasons out of 16? Is that enough for the cost? Is it enough to move towards 90 wins? So far they are 1-2 in seasons purchased. I don't believe they can win by buying a rotation. The best year is often the first year as pitchers lose velocity and decline as they enter or continue in their thirties. I believe the only way out of this cycle of mediocrity is to develop a core of cost controlled young pitching and then give them the starts in the major leagues that are necessary for their development.

The cost of trading for pitching prospects is high. Trading established talent for pitching talent in A ball or AA ball is going to land on the side of major league talent much more often. The gamble pays off when you get a good major league starter for all of their team control years. Until they can develop their own pitching talent, the Twins need to continue to seek similar moves.

The Twins need to take the best 12 north. They need to put the best 5 in the rotation. Last year's performance matters and Hughes and Santana are in. Gibson would need to be down in velocity to be out. If May and Meyer are throwing better than Nolasco, Pelfrey and Milone, the young pitchers need to be in the rotation. None of these 5 should be "in line". They need to go out and earn the job.

Plouffe had virtually no experience at 3B entering 2012. It was Valencia and Burroughs to start the season in 2012. Ten guys some time there in spring but Plouffe wasn't among them. He did play one game there in the minors in 2011. Is it surprising that he struggled with the glove learning the position in the midst of a major league season? His improvement is a credit to his hard work and the experience at playing the position. The Twins probably could have done a better job of recognizing where he would best fit at the major league level and preparing him for that role.

Thanks for the work. Every attempt at making sense on fielding data gets us closer to understanding the impact on the game. I hope to do some crunching on with the help of play index when time allows.

Thanks for the correction. He has road xFIPS as a reliever of 3.46 and 3.78 (near NL league average) in mostly low leverage situations. He should be projected to decline given his age. I am still not convinced he should be a lock for a spot in the pen. He needs to show he is one of the best 12. If he isn't clearly better than Oliveros or other young arm, the twins need to go with the upside of the younger pitcher with team control beyond 2015.

On Stauffer's xFIP... Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco. Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

Starting with the pen. The only guy I would have in red is Perkins. Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA. There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year. Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released. Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA. If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released. All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

I agree when it is a case of a pitcher throwing well in the majors the previous season and ends pitching well. Gibson might be included with Santana, Hughes and Perkins. If Nolasco and Pelfrey had the 80% anchoring them down, they wouldn't make it. The Twins need to bring the next best 8 north. Nolasco, Pelfrey and the other veterans need to show they are among that group.

I think last year's performance can and should be used to assess best 12. Hughes, Santana and Perkins can go to spring training and work on being ready for opening day. The rest of the guys better bring something. Meyer ought to have the opportunity to beat out Stauffer or Pelfrey or Nolasco for a job. The Twins need to bring their best 12 north when on field performance means everything.

Does that mean you think that Milone and May are much more likely to show they are better pitchers in spring? If Meyer is clearly one is of the best 12, should they still send him down?

Oops... Jose Bautista (not Tony)