jorgenswest

The comment was the third time through. Missing bats is a problem but not specific to the third time through. Missing bats and too much contact can be a problem in the first inning also so I am not sure how your reply is connected to my reply about the third time through.

I had to go back and read my original reply. The only stated support for the bullpen career was today’s performance. I think it is foolish to think that a month or two of play is going to tell us anything about a player much less one start. I reacted to the original support. I agree with what your assessment of his career thus far. Had that been the original statement in support I would not have hit reply.

i Stewart is young. His strike out rate is trending up. His ceiling is unknown to me.

So a ground ball by the second basemen and a chopper to the thirdbasemen that would have been an out at third 99.9% of the time is your evidence that Stewart’s future is in the bullpen.

Was he hit harder the third time through? The 8 and 9 hitters did not have hard contact to start that inning. An average defensive 1B would have stopped the 9 hitter’s single. Third time through Candelaria poked one by the second baseman. It was not barreled up. Inglesias hit a slow chopper to 3B and all Adrianza needs to do is step on 3B. He does lose composure and walk Goodrum. He is taken out and Kepler makes an bad throw on a fly ball in front of him. No runs should have been scored this inning. I saw... A ball an average 1B would make get by Austin. An inexplicably bad play by a 3B not getting an out. A pitcher in his first game losing composure for a batter. A fly ball that an average play from right fielder would not need 4 several to get to the catcher. I did not see batters pounding him the ball the third time through. Did we watch the same game?

When changing the pitcher gives you a better chance to get out of the inning and changing the third baseman does not.

They tried to rest it with a stay on the DL. It didn’t work. The next step is surgery. Seems pretty typical.

I don’t think rule 5 or DFA is even a question. I think they had already made a decision to add him to the 40 before they made this decision. They shouldn’t even need to use an option because they can send him back down at a point where there are less than 20 days left in the AAA season.

I sure hope they don’t use a short stint in the majors as means of making a decision. They see him pitch every day. His spin rate isn’t going to change when he puts on a major league uniform. His ability to command his fastball isn’t going to change. He isn’t going to lost his ground ball tendencies. I assume he is here because they had already decided that he was going to be put on the 40 this winter and it fit his spot in the rotation well. Maybe his debut is like that of Trevor May or maybe it will be like Andrew Albers. May came up at about the same time in 2014 and was hammered. He still was in their rotation early in 2015. Albers came up in August 2013 and was historically good in his first two starts. Even that Twin organization was smart enough to know that what they were seeing wasn’t what they had in each pitcher. It is a great opportunity for Stewart. The opportunity to get his feet wet is valuable. I hope he does well and gives fans something to hope on.

At first I assumed Stewart was up for the year so they don’t burn an option. From reading it sounds like he can go down at some point as long as it is fewer than 20 days. Is that correct? I am encouraged that he received the call. I hope they don’t use an option.

I have (a likely irrational) hope that Duffey can be a good reliever. I like his curve ball and I think they can figure out how to better pitch sequence and locate his fastball. Look at the change in pitch value for Gibson’s fastball. It was a big negative and now it is neutral. They are using it less often and they are mixing up the locations. The old regime would always have him locate down with runners on base. I am sure the hope was ground ball pitcher + sinker low in the zone = double play. Too often that equaled ball on barrel. It was the same game plan for Duffey who also has ground ball tendencies. It doesn’t work.

He was as high as #8 on their pipeline http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=oak He is 21 and has had some injuries and significant trouble with command. He is young enough to recover from both and approach his upside when drafted.

I think the AJ Pierzinkski trade tree is pretty good headlined by Joe Nathan Francisco Liriano Eduardo Escobar ...and three guys in A ball.

Bobby Darwin... one of my favorites. In 1962 he was a 19 year old in his first season in the minors. He struck out 202 batters in 153 innings. He also walked 149. Imagine his pitch counts in those games. His promise was enough that the Angels moved him up to the majors for a September start at 19. Arm trouble followed and he found his way to the outfield.

That wasn’t my memory. Looks like Craig Kusick and John Briggs bridged the last year Killebrew was the main 1B and Carew was the starter. Kusick might be a fair comp to Tyler Austin though.

Will the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees or Astros have someone that starts at least 120 games at 1B this year? If his bat and glove can provide league average play at 1B there should be a spot for him even if they expect 1/2 a season of starts at 1B. I am not confident that he will contribute enough with his bat.

For some reason several successful major league pitchers had relatively high walk rates in the minors. If it is only command and control teams don't wait for them to fix it in the minors. The higher rates tend to remain through AAA.

I think once you say small sample you stop the thought and wait on the sample. Slash stats need a full season. ERA multiple seasons. Strike out and walk rates will stabilize for the hitters and starting pitchers by the end of the season.

Can a team carry a 3 man bench and the right handed half of a platoon 1B/DH? Maybe. The other half of the DH better be able to play some outfield. Can Austin play RF approaching Grossman’s level? If so, I think there is a spot. He has not played RF for Rochester yet in spite of Rochester having 3 outfielders on the DL.

I think they will find a match for Morrison but it may be closer to roster expansion and the return will be a player that will be out of options next year.

A comment in general... Sometimes high walk rates are a result of minor league batters unable to make any contact and deep counts. Many successful pitchers have seen lower walk rates in the majors than in the minors. I haven't seen Curtiss pitch in the minors so I am not sure how much of his ~12% AAA (17,18) walk rate is related to batters simply not making contact. Walk rates in the minors for batters and pitchers have interested me for a while. Liam Hendriks had great control and was leading the IL in ERA on year at 2.20 when called up. In the same league pitchers like Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Matt Harvey struggled with walk rates much greater than they would have in the majors. Corey Kluber had AAA walk rates of 9.0% that year and 10.5% the previous. His major league walk rate this year is 3.4% and for his career 5.3%. I doubt there is a correlation between high walk rates and success. I also doubt there is a correlation between low walk rates and major league success. If you look at the 51 pitchers (100 innings) in that AAA group and sorted by walk rate. You need to get to number 25 of 51 Julio Teheran (7.5%) before you find a successful pitcher. Walk rates in the minors are deceiving and don't translate well to the majors. For a pitcher they might have stuff that minor league batters simply can't handle. Batters with a lot of walks might be missing opportunities to barrel up the ball earlier in the count. I am not discouraged by Curtiss' walk rate. I am not encouraged either but a really low walk rate would concern me more than a high walk rate.

Winning teams will have staffs that have a much greater success rate at their projections. There just isn’t much that can be learned in a one or two month audition. Teams end up counting on guys like Parmelee and Danny Santana when the eyes of a skilled staff watching them in the minors should know their limitations. I do believe there is value in a player “getting his feet wet” and having their eyes opened to the adjustments they will need to make as they transition from the minors. I don’t believe that a skilled staff is going to learn anything significant in late season trial. Defending a position isn’t different. The strike zone isn’t different. Major leaguers will do a much better job of exposing weaknesses but a skilled staff better know about and be addressing those weaknesses long before the player hits the majors.

I don’t disagree. I still have to wonder a little though thinking back to the Astro relievers last year tossing curve ball after curve ball in the playoffs. Could the Astros take his curve ball and develop that pitch into a plus major league pitch?

To win they are going to need a staff who can watch performance in the minors and combine that with data so that they don’t have to kick tires wondering if they can contribute. It looks like they failed on Rodriguez.