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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The manager must not base a determination of poor play on slash stat results. Poor slash stat results in an unreliable sample sample are not a good indicator of poor play.
  2. jorgenswest
    How do you project future poor play? If you look at the statcast data he isn’t that far different from last year in the batted ball data. Slash stats in a partial season are a very unreliable way to project future performance. What are the consequences of basing decisions on unreliable sample sizes?
  3. jorgenswest
    With every trade I find myself thinking if there was a Twin that could have been in that package instead. They can’t match Britton or Hand. I don’t think Rodney would have been preferred in the deals for Familia or Soria. Maybe Pressly would have been preferable to Andriese but probably not Oh. Would Duke have been preferred over Chavez? The one thing the deals tell us is there was an opportunity as well as the players the teams are willing to part with. Have the Twins missed out on any of these opportunities?
  4. jorgenswest
    Over the last 5 series and 16 games he has started 10 games catching 8 of them. I look for him to go from 50% to 60% in the last two months. I think he has improved as a receiver and game caller this year. I also think Castro and now Wilson have been helpful to his development.
  5. jorgenswest
    You have a lot more confidence than I do about fangraphs ability to accurately measure defense at catcher.
  6. jorgenswest
    Looking at his statcast numbers he really isn't that far off last year in his batted ball numbers. His xWOBA was .371 last year and .360 this year. The batted ball results (slash stats) are poor but they are not reliable for future projection at a partial season sample. I think the xWOBA provides a better projection for the future. I would certainly keep him if I can't find a trade partner.
  7. jorgenswest
    Catching has a huge growth curve. If there was a plan to see if he could be a regular catcher for 2019 I think it would look like this year. There is a lot of work/study to be done when not catching. Plan A was learn with Castro. Plan B is learn with Wilson. This isn't a very desirable plan B but how many other veteran catchers would sign last winter knowing that they would be in AAA? Garver has been catching primarily Lynn and Odorizzi putting him at 40% for a stretch. He recently caught the 5th starters in Mejia and Santana. Watch for his increased usage the last two months. It is one game but he did a nice job of catching the shaky command of Santana yesterday. I think there is hope he can be the 60-70% catcher next year with Castro at 30-40%.
  8. jorgenswest
    A winter minor league deal to see if Tillman is healthy would be OK. Maybe a deal where he has a May 1 or June 1 release. There was no reason for the Orioles to keep him. He is going to be a free agent at the end of the season. Even if he gave them a couple of good months to end the season it would only be a showcase for other teams. The Twins don't need to provide that showcase either.
  9. jorgenswest
    Belisle pitched well. He kept hitters off balance and was not hit hard. He was in trouble in his 9th inning as a result of a two singles. The second single was a weak bloop just over the infield. Bad luck for the Twins on the bloop. Bad base running for the Jays on the double play. A single, two strike outs and a lazy fly ball to right field in the 10th. A very good performance. If doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season but he executed his pitches and kept hitters off balance when the Twins desperately needed a few innings.
  10. jorgenswest
    They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.
  12. jorgenswest
    Huge game from Garver, game saving innings from Garver and a big extra innings double from a Dozier lead to nice win. It is great to be able to just sit and enjoy the game of baseball.
  13. jorgenswest
    I saw the trade thought posted by Mike of Lynn for Gray in his news thread. I agree that the Yankees don’t make that move though the Twins can help with salary. How about Gibson for one of their top pitching prospects plus Gray? With Gray they have some talent controlled through 2019 to work with and they have another good arm in the system. There is some non zero likelihood that Gray is better than Gibson next year. He also could be a guy a few pitches from an injury.
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree. There must be some pitchers that can be really effective for 2-3 innings and that role no longer exists in baseball.
  15. jorgenswest
    Astudillo also did not catch in the 4 weeks prior to his first game in the majors. He started mainly at 3B with a few starts in the outfield. Prior to that he was the primary catcher. The Twins have signed a series of fill ins at catcher for Rochester this year in Cameron Rupp, Jordan Pacheco and Juan Graterol. All were added after the Twins staff had a chance to see Astudillo at catcher in the minors for two months. I certainly didn’t expect that he would be catching upon his call up after following Rochester and seeing how they used him. Garver is the hope for next year. There is a huge amount of prep work preparing to catch each game. They can probably increase his workload to 4 games a week but the work he is doing preparing for games and learning the league is an unseen piece that is critical to his development.
  16. jorgenswest
    We disagree. It is so hard to get elite players. You those high ceiling prospects every time over guys like Gonsalves and Gordon.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think this should be the goal of every team. We should also keep this in mind as we speculate on trades for players like a Realmuto or Archer. It is going to take our best prospect. Someone will make that offer.
  18. jorgenswest
    I will try again. Two scenarios.. 1) They believe Gibson will sustain his performance. In this case they will need to replace that performance for 2019 in trade or free agency. We disagree on how easy it will be to replace a good performing starting pitcher in the winter. I see a risk in entering 2019 without making the winter trade or free agent signing that replaces Gibson. They have control of Gibson. They can’t control the rest. I hope you are correct and finding good starting pitching can be done easily enough. 2) They don’t believe Gibson will sustain his performance. By all means sell high. If they think he will return to his previous level then he can easily be replaced. I am keeping him if I think he will pitch similarly next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
  19. jorgenswest
    Yes. It doesn’t even need to be shakier pitchers. Very few pitchers are going more than 7 innings.
  20. jorgenswest
    Would it be wise to trade Gibson and then go back in the market this winter and hope to trade for someone like Gibson? The possible net gain is not worth the risk that a trade partner can’t be found. They should trade Gibson if they don’t believe he will sustain this performance. They should trade Gibson if they feel they have 5 better starters for the 2019 rotation. Otherwise they should keep him.
  21. jorgenswest
    Nice win. Nice work with full bases by Belisle. Good to see some solid defense and a nice start by Mejia.
  22. jorgenswest
    No. The second pitcher will pitch to a typical starter pitch count.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins are following up with a starter. Littell followed May. It isn’t a bullpen game.
  24. jorgenswest
    I hope we have an organization that is capable of assessing whether a player is capable of playing a key defensive position before arriving in the majors. Catcher is the most critical defensive position followed by shortstop and catcher. I no longer want to see guys like Pinto and Plouffe arrive in the majors at a key defensive position where it is so clear that they are not capable. I want that assessment complete before they arrive. I would much prefer having to trust that assessment than have to see Pinto at catcher with my own eyes. I assume they are at least intrigued by Astudillo’s bat. They watched at catcher for two months and then moved him to 3B and LF. I don’t know if they were incorrect in their assessment but I absolutely expect that they will be making these kinds of assessments before players arrive at this level.
  25. jorgenswest
    i think they decided that he was not capable of even playing once or twice a week at catcher in the major leagues. That decision caused the need for catching depth in AAA and they signed Rupp. Now I think they signed Juan Graterol and Jordan Pacheco for Rochester. The Twins are desperate for catching. If they thought he was a viable catcher in the majors there is no way they stop playing him at catcher in AAA.
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