jorgenswest

Seems reasonable hope as comp to Tyner. He also played 212 games in AAA in his first two years as a a Twin. Schafer would need to be DFA'd (for the third time) to give the Twins that flexibility.

I am not as confident in his defense. The anecdotal evidence when he arrived was that he took poor jumps and poor routes to the ball. In a different forum discussion, I had shown quotes from the local papers and blogs describing his defensive shortcomings. I should dig it up again but to summarize... The Braves were quoted saying that Bonifacio would be an upgrade in the OF. Bonifacio is at best average in the OF. Brave blogger Biggentleben wrote on Twins Daily about his defensive shortcomings in August. The Crawfishboxes wrote of how his tools didn't match the reality of his defensive performance while he was with the Astros. This time the metrics back up the eyes of the reporters. Both his DRS and UZR are significantly negative in CF with over 2000 innings. In LF they are negative but near enough to 0. I am sure a discussion of lack of trust in metrics will follow. That would be fine if they were in conflict with the reports of his performance with the Astros and Braves. For a fourth OF, his defense would be passable if combined with the bat of a corner OF. That isn't the case. He brings a small hope of a significantly improved bat to go with the certainty of his base stealing and a possibly adequate glove. Coming up through the minors he showed all of the tools. His tools have yet to materialize in the performance of his bat or glove.

I think I would give him two months and be ready to turn to Rosario or Buxton.

Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before? I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performance through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps. Several of the players listed above have similar characteristics in speed and ability to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer. What about after age 27 and their peak values? Brady Anderson! 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances. 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27. I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level. What do the Twins do about Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 next year or do they look elsewhere?

I need help with tables. I have a table in excel (or word) but it looks awful in the preview. Thanks

At the time if the trade, Escobar projected to a Nick Punto type career. If Santana's glove is not solid at SS, he could have a Bonifacio type career. Great to have both players on the roster.

I am not sure they can get Ray Searage in a lateral move. Is he under contract? I do think they should consider the Pirates bullpen coach Euclides Rojas.

Is that because you have no hope they will release him? In your opinion, does Pelfrey have the arm health to bounce back on short rest as well as come in and put out a fire with runners on base? I hope they make him win that job and release him if he doesn't show that ability in the spring.

I am not sure about the HAS to be. It is not uncommon to play CF on the minors. Oswaldo Arcia played CF through Elizabethton. Until this season, Rosario had the same experience. I don't doubt that Rosario will have more range than Arcia though. His bat in a corner is the bigger question. He should do enough good things in LF to be at least close to average with the glove. Maybe he will be similar to Schafer who has the speed but poor instincts negate that speed. The Twins won't know if Rosario can be a solution in LF unless he gets a long look. That look needs to start early this season. It can't happen if they fill the spot with a decline phase veteran as a short term patch.

The Royals threw 2287 97+ fastballs in 2014. The Twins threw 1. They need some fire in the pen. Burton is gone. Swarzak and Duensing should go. Thielbar and Fien have an option left. That flexibility should save their spot on the 40 but not the 25.

Several are saying he won't come to Minnesota. If the money is big enough, he will come. I didn't know I would have to be clear about the age. I will try again. Most people at 60 are thinking forward to retirement. Whether he stops at around 67 like LaRussa or Leyland or goes longer, in his mind he has to be thinking one big contract. So no, there isn't a retirement age. There is a peak to the opportunity. He will never be more respected. No team would be concerned about his age at 60. I think he opted out because he is aware that he is at peak value. Anyone motivated can buy high. Will the a Twins buy high?

At his age, it is his last big contract before retiring or moving to front office. He goes where the money takes him. The Twins can afford him. Pay the guy.

The Twins absolutely can not expect Pelfrey to pitch well from the pen. Throughout his career, the drop off in his performance with runners on base is significant. He would need a bullpen role where he starts an inning. He can't pitch from the stretch. That would limit a manager's ability to use the pen.

All three are out of options. At some point next year, each of the three will be DFA'd. I would nontender all three and look for someone else's nontender that can have the flexibility to start in the minors. They can also be nontendered and resigned to a minor league contract. Schafer did have an OK two months. They all have had OK stretches. Any projection should be based on the last three years and not two months. All three project to be fringe major leaguers.

He is young. He will continue to improve. I am all for signing or trading for a top quartile outfielder. Short of that, I would prefer the at bats go to Hicks, Rosario, Buxton or Sano (with Plouffe in LF) next year..

Buxton will help prevent runs better than anyone they will bring in. Bourjos? By the end of the year Buxton will be a better hitter than Bourjos and may be from day 1. While I am on the side of those that say the a Twins should not worry about service tea. I won't argue them waiting a couple weeks to get the extra year.

I hope the a Twins build their bullpen without Pelfrey. I just looked at some recent Twin relievers and how they fared as starters in Perkins, Hawkins and Nathan. All three were failed starters. None of the three has showed more than normal difficulty in high leverage situations. I don't see how the Twins would consider pitching someone in relief where there are such obvious struggles in high leverage situations or with runners on base. While he may have a good ERA in the role, he is certain to give up a high rate of inherited runners. If he can't win a job in the starting rotation, they need to release him and develop a younger pitcher in relief that will eventually grow into a late inning role

In the AL this year the k/bb ratio drops from 2.74 to 2.50 when moving from low to high leverage. The OPS against is actually .003 lower in high leverage situations. Pelfrey k/bb ratio drops from 2.19 to 1.02 when moving from low to high leverage. His OPS against increases from .716 to .801 over his career. It is hard to see how he would be able to have a significant role in the pen beyond mop up.

The other questions... Can he pitch with runners on base? As a starter he can't. Can he warm up quickly? Can he pitch on back to back days?

I don't think you would want to bring him in with runners on base. His performance drops when runners on base and pitching from stretch more than most. Any relief re would need to be one that usually starts an inning

I am still not convinced this is a rebuild. It has been a patch with older filler for three years in hopes of giving the impression of being competitive. While they are selling pieces they don't have under control next year (Fuld excluded), any team with a bad record would do the same. The direction will be telling this winter. Do they seek decline phase players and try to squeeze out one more year? Do they instead try to find talent from younger players that have been cast off after a small sample stay in the majors? Are they willing to turn loose Pelfrey in spite of the commitment to create time for younger players?

Is there any significance to his performance in a few games? Shouldn't there be enough games in which to see Schafer play? Shouldn't Gardy already know? I don't doubt your reasoning Brock. I am only concerned that his play the last two months will somehow take precedence over the last 4 years. An OK 100 plate appearances might stop the Twins from looking for a different solution.