jorgenswest

The Dodgers entered this season trading for Ramon Hernandez. At the time if his release, he was their best hitting catcher by OPS. He is also a historically poor receiver. Yeager referenced this skill as they changed from Hernandez to Federowicz. The Dodgers have shown with their Hernandez, Federowicz and Butera roster decisions that they have shifted in how they value defense at catcher. That shift happened after the start of this season. I am am not sure how Ellis measures up. There is some info in the link below Source Studying the art of pitch framing by catchers such as Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, and others - Grantland Back to the Twins... Do they need to make a similar shift?

I think Meyer needs to open with the team next year. He will be 24. The clock is ticking on his velocity. The a Twins do not need to worry about control for a pitcher. Injuries will occur before control expires.

I am not sure why a Butera is almost a run better than Doumit. It isn't Pavano though. Pavano pitched very poorly in 2012 in a injury shortened season. The Twins need to assess how much of that run and how much is due to the skill of the catcher. One run is huge. A half a run is huge. The difference between Minnesota and the top pitching and defense in the AL in 1.17 runs. They were .57 away from the average pitching and defense. Doumit caught around 100 games the last two seasons. He wasn't the cause of the poor pitching. His defense made a bad situation much worse. I think the a Twins would have been better off making a bad situation a little better.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Fangraphs relies on FIP to calculate WAR for pitchers. Is FIP independent of the catcher? The following table shows pitching performance by catcher over the last two seasons. [TABLE=width: 500] Catcher Inn K/BB FIP Joe Mauer 1286 2.32 4.32 Ryan Doumit 865 1.65 4.78 Drew Butera 307 2.53 3.80 Chris Herrmann 228 2.18 4.44 [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Could this be random variation? Sample size? The number of innings for the catchers exceeds that expected of a starter in a full season. Is it possible that Butera always caught the more talented pitchers? The Twins haven't had a starter really stand out to make this difference. As the Twins make roster decisions for next year, can they move forward with any plan to play Doumit at catcher? Even if the difference between Butera and Doumit was half the the difference in FIPs, there is no way Doumit made up for that difference with the bat. Successful teams are playing catchers that can't hit. Drew Butera returns a real prospect in trade. The Twins need to start paying attention.

I don't think the Twins get optimal use of platoon advantage. I was surprised to see their position and acknowledged that they have several switch hitters. Gardenhire may have been able to take the current roster and get a few more wins. Different roster construction may have allowed more. I think the Indians and A's position on the list was intentional on their part. In the Indians case it will be the difference in making the playoffs.

I should have added runs scored rank. Cleveland and Oakland are third and fourth in runs scored. They may not have several great individual hitters but as a group they score a lot of runs. Boston is first. Baltimore fifth. They all get better than average platoon advantage. Detroit is second in runs scored and the only one in the top five that get below league average platoon advantage.

Two topics that appeared in the forums led me to wonder which teams are getting the platoon advantage. How did the Indians do it? I look at their numbers and see a combined 6.1 WAR from Jan Gomes and Ryan Raburn. Those cheap additions will be the difference between contending for the wild card and being on the fringe. Francona has found a role for them to put up fantastic numbers. We also debated about how platooning might help the Twins. I wondered how often teams are getting the platoon advantage. I guess I could have waited two more days, but I don't think the numbers will change significantly. Below is a table listing the percent each AL team was able to have the platoon advantage in a plate appearance. I could have included NL, but the DH gives the AL teams a different context for controlling the platoon advantage. [TABLE=width: 300] TeamCLE OAK SEA BAL MIN BOS TBR TOR AL HOU DET NYY KCR LAA TEX CHW Advantage70.5% 70.4% 67.3% 61.3% 61.3% 60.7% 59.8% 59.1% 59.0% 57.2% 56.7% 54.8% 54.5% 53.5% 53.2% 43.8% [/TABLE] There are many ways of increasing the platoon advantage. Managers can use a traditional 1 for 1 platoon. Managers can manipulate the batting order so that the top of the order has hitters with the advantage. Managers can make more frequent use of pinch hitters. Teams can seek switch hitters. General managers can provide bench players that can be used in platoon and pinch hitting roles. I look to the top and I am not surprised. The front office of the Indians, Orioles and A's have found inexpensive pieces like Raburn, Valencia and Moss and hired managers that utilized their talents well. I can imagine that Plouffe would thrive in such a situation. I was a little surprised that the Twins find themselves with Baltimore. The Twins have rostered several switch hitters. That helps. It would help more if they could hit from both sides. As the Twins make roster decisions for 2014. There is no question they need to improve starting pitching. There are few inexpensive routes towards that goal. They also desperately need to improve the offense. Will they look to Cleveland and Oakland's use of the platoon advantage as an inexpensive route towards improving the offense?

Other solutions... Abreau Sano (no guarantee he can play 3B) Plouffe I really think it will be Mauer. Brain injuries trump stubborn.

My interest in the bench is platooning. The most likely place to find a platoon piece is on a corner. The typical platoon player will have a good bat on his platoon half and limited ability to defend anywhere up the middle. A 3 man bench requires all three players to be solid up the middle. Those guys usually aren't very good hitters. A 5 man bench allows the possibility to platoon at two of the corners. Is there a way to reconfigure the current pitching staff use in an 11 man staff? Can this idea make it possible? I think some team will figure Out howto teturn to an 11 man staff. There are players out there that could have a Bill Robinson type career if the someone can figure out how to roster him.

Willhammer is correct. The third time through will often come up sometime in the 5th inning. They need to get through that inning for this to work. Too much burden on the bullpen otherwise. It is still a worthy idea. I am not as certain on the 11 pitches. That would assume there is a big drop off on pitch 76 and pitch 76 was the same as pitch 100.

A second thought about roster composition. A return to an 11 man pitching staff would enable the bench flexibility to platoon. Is there a way to do this with a 7 man bullpen and retain the effectiveness of the relievers?

[TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]PA K/BB OPS 1st 1260 2.32 .790 2nd 1191 1.65 .806 3rd 858 1.28 .850 4th 45 1.25 1.139 [/TABLE] The table above shows performance by Twins starter the 1st through 4th time through the line up in 2013. At first glance, it appears that the third time through the line up is a significant drop off. However, it is not quite a dramatic as it looks. Those 350-400 fewer plate appearances are mostly missing from the bottom of the opponents batting order. That wouldn't account for the entire difference or the near halving of k/bb ratio. The k/bb ratio takes a big hit just going to PA#2. Relievers rarely go through a line up twice. In their first time through the line up this year Twin relievers have posted a 2.74 k/bb ratio while allowing an OPS of .655 in 1895 plate appearances. It might be worth a shot. While I can't see a team with an ace going this route that doesn't describe the Twins situation.

Nice angle.

The reason the Twins are a good match is because of Sano and Buxton. One of them would have to part of the package. It is a waste of time to speculate otherwise.

I would love to see Sano play with the Twins. That is my selfish interest. Ticket sales would increase. The management's selfish interest. The same statements can be made about next April. The reality is that he still has room to grow in AA this year. He will benefit from starting at AAA next year. Let him develop. Allow him the chance to dominate AAA next year for at least 10 weeks. If he dominates, we see him June 15. If not, the Twins need to be patient.

You caused me to check... Josmil Pinto 5'11" Chris Herrmann 6'0" Matthew Koch 6'0" I hope you are correct. Doumit is 6'1" so there is skill involved in this other than height. Height helps. You can't teach Joe to be 5'11".

My last blog topic on catcher defense was last November. The trade of Butera has prompted a revisit. Through July 26 while Ryan Doumit was catching, 46 out of zone balls were called strikes and 205 in zone strikes were called balls. They convert it to a ratio which for Doumit would be 0.22 extra strikes/lost strikes. That ratio is the worst in baseball and the next for a current catcher is twice the ratio at 0.44. The data is from Baseball Prospectus. How much difference does that make in terms of runs? Mike Fast used Dan Turkenkopf's study showing that reversing a strike into a ball is worth 0.13 runs. You can and will argue that validity of both but many teams are using this work. Ben Lindbergh had a great series of interviews including executives, catchers, coaches, pitchers and umpires earlier this year. So Doumit had caught 291.2 innings through July 26. He had a net of 159 lost strikes. Converting that into runs and using a per 9 inning measure, Doumit has impacted the game by 0.64 runs per 9 innings this year. Many of you will join the Twins in ignoring this data. Shouldn't the Twins wonder why the Dodgers with a back up catcher with an OPS of .590 didn't go after Doumit? Instead, they added Butera. Butera can't hit. He can catch. Through 2012 had been about even in the strike/ball counts. He is very good in other measures and may be very good in receiving the ball. Earlier this year Ramon Hernandez was the Dodgers back up catcher with an OPS over .700. They dropped Hernandez for the more skilled receiver in Federowicz. Federowicz can't match Hernandez' hitting. He can catch. Look for quotes from Steve Yeager in the top article below about the Dodgers and catcher defense. Do you want the Twins to continue to ignore this data from pitch f/x? Could it be that the Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates and Diamondbacks are off base in seeking catchers for their ability to receive the ball? How much does Doumit cost the team with his defense? It must be something, but 0.64 seems very high. Even if it is half that, is it possible that we have been employing the wrong back up catcher this year? My sources http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21363 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 http://subjspeak.blogspot.com/2012/12/catcher-framing-part-1.html Edit: to add offensive comparison. Doumit has created 40 runs this year (Baseball Reference) in 372 plate appearances. That is 0.43 runs per 4 plate appearances. Last year, Butera created 8 runs in 122 plate appearances or 0.26 per game. The difference in the offense while playing Doumit is about 0.17. Could Butera have made up that difference with his defense at catcher? The Twins probably expected Doumit to do as well as last year's 0.51 per 4 PA. That is 0.25 runs per 4 PA better than they might have expected from Butera. Did the Twins employ the best back up catcher?

My last blog topic on catcher defense was last November. The trade of Butera has prompted a revisit. Through July 26 while Ryan Doumit was catching, 46 out of zone balls were called strikes and 205 in zone strikes were called balls. They convert it to a ratio which for Doumit would be 0.22 extra strikes/lost strikes. That ratio is the worst in baseball and the next for a current catcher is twice the ratio at 0.44. The data is from Baseball Prospectus. How much difference does that make in terms of runs? Mike Fast used Dan Turkenkopf's study showing that reversing a strike into a ball is worth 0.13 runs. You can and will argue that validity of both but many teams are using this work. Ben Lindbergh had a great series of interviews including executives, catchers, coaches, pitchers and umpires earlier this year. So Doumit had caught 291.2 innings through July 26. He had a net of 159 lost strikes. Converting that into runs and using a per 9 inning measure, Doumit has impacted the game by 0.64 runs per 9 innings this year. Many of you will join the Twins in ignoring this data. Shouldn't the Twins wonder why the Dodgers with a back up catcher with an OPS of .590 didn't go after Doumit? Instead, they added Butera. Butera can't hit. He can catch. Through 2012 had been about even in the strike/ball counts. He is very good in other measures and may be very good in receiving the ball. Earlier this year Ramon Hernandez was the Dodgers back up catcher with an OPS over .700. They dropped Hernandez for the more skilled receiver in Federowicz. Federowicz can't match Hernandez' hitting. He can catch. Look for quotes from Steve Yeager in the top article below about the Dodgers and catcher defense. Do you want the Twins to continue to ignore this data from pitch f/x? Could it be that the Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates and Diamondbacks are off base in seeking catchers for their ability to receive the ball? How much does Doumit cost the team with his defense? It must be something, but 0.64 seems very high. Even if it is half that, is it possible that we have been employing the wrong back up catcher this year? My sources http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21363 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 http://subjspeak.blogspot.com/2012/12/catcher-framing-part-1.html Edit: to add offensive comparison. Doumit has created 40 runs this year (Baseball Reference) in 372 plate appearances. That is 0.43 runs per 4 plate appearances. Last year, Butera created 8 runs in 122 plate appearances or 0.26 per game. The difference in the offense while playing Doumit is about 0.17. Could Butera have made up that difference with his defense at catcher? The Twins probably expected Doumit to do as well as last year's 0.51 per 4 PA. That is 0.25 runs per 4 PA better than they might have expected from Butera. Did the Twins employ the best back up catcher?

The best move they made last summer was holding the line on Span offers. When the Reds wouldn't come through with a top pitching prospect, they kept him and found one in the winter.

Great information and insight.

As always, top quality reporting. Thanks.

Prospects should be below league average age. If you are league average age, you are old for a prospect. If he takes one step at a time from where he is now, he will be an old major league rookie at 25. At 21, you hope they are in high A. In Walker's case, he was a college guy drafted a year ago and starts older. Given his age and performance, the Twins probably should have moved him with Buxton. If he has a good first half in high A and moves to AA mid season next year, he will be on track. If he struggles in high A at 22, he probably isn't a good prospect.

Great context. Let's hope it means better return. Did you seek any other years that appeared to be buyer heavy? It might be interesting to do a count of top 100 prospects changing hands compared to the numbers of buyers (needs definition) for each year. Probably too much labor. An alpha list of prospects rankings going back to at least 1990 is on baseball cube's site.

I have a different format for this one since so much has already been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in [URL="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated"]"Another Reason Closers are Overrated"[/URL]. I question whether he was asking the right questions. The questions should really be: What happens to closers in the following years? How many teams have the same closer? How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they need to assess the value he will bring in the next 3 seasons they have him under team control.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index; it is [URL="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc#gid=0"]here[/URL]. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Closers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment, either. Pitchers left the closing role for three reasons: 1- They were injured 2- They were ineffective closers 3- They changed roles and remained effective Taking the third category first, Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, he probably would have remained effective in that role. Category two next: other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves, for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year, but they were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the oft changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? Category one: I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Loss to injury[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer's workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than set-up relievers. I looked at the continued health of set-up men last year as the Twins considered extending [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/1968-burton-what-s-future-31-year-old-set-up-man.html"]Jared Burton.[/URL] It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4031-trade-talk-brian-duensing.html"]Trade talk: Brian Duensing[/URL] [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4039-trade-talk-correia-pelfrey.html"]Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey[/URL] View full article