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Physics Guy

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  • Birthday 07/16/1970

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  1. While adding Rodriguez on a reasonable contract is fine, Story is the only one that makes sense to me. They have a clear need at the position and a cloudy future in the prospect area at the position. While Story seems to have declined some recently, he is a dramatic improvement over the last two years at the position. The FO has shown they won't spend big money on FA pitching, so why not use some of the surplus budget on Story? They would still be well under last year's payroll. The other necessary move is to trade for a Sonny Gray/Chris Bassitt type to front the rotation and fill the #5 slot with rotating prospects.
  2. There is no wrong answer. Chocolate often accompanies butterscotch or caramel on my ice cream.
  3. As the most recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek discussed, I don't think the Twins have had this level of pitching prospects as long as I can remember. Of course, until they make it to the bigs, it doesn't matter (TINSTAAPP). I really fell like Falvey and Levine are staking their future with the Twins on whether these guys can make the next step. I really hope they are right, because it has been a long time since we have had multiple exciting young pitchers.
  4. While I do love caramel, it's butterscotch hands-down.
  5. Not a fan of the opener, but it seems to me Jax's likely position will be as a multiple inning reliever. With our (likely) young staff and the propensity for 5 inning outings from starters, we need a guy that can throw a couple of innings once or twice a week. It's up to Rocco and Wes to figure out a way to maximize him in the bullpen. I just don't see him as an SP long-term. If you need to have a bullpen game, fine have Jax start. Otherwise, it's time to put him in the BP. Plenty of failed starters have become excellent relievers.
  6. I am somewhat ambivalent to this FO. I was enthusiastic about the changes they made early on, but things have stagnated. Some of the lack of development, or should say the lack of pitchers being promoted to the majors, can certainly be attributed to the lack of a minor league season in 2020. It's hard to dispute that the Twins were unlucky with regards to health this past season. Many have ripped the Twins for not protecting Akil Badoo, but I think it was a reasonable gamble on the Twins part. The guy was 22 and had most recently played only 29 games at High A in 2019, so I understand their gamble. Some say it was foolish to keep Jake Cave, but he had an OPS+ of 111 and 113 in '18 and '19. His K/BB ratios should have been a clue that keeping Lamonte Wad was probably the wiser choice. I am more disappointed with their lack of giving guys like Wade, Nick Anderson and Tyler Wells opportunities before jettisoning them. I think this FO has done some things well. They have made good bargain signings towards the end of the offseason, such as Cruz, Donaldson and even Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. The last two may not have worked out for the Twins (still ticked about Lynn's attitude and subsequent performance with the Sox), but they appeared to be good signings at face value. I think the front office has done a good job of acquiring young talent at the trade deadline. The Buxton signing was a godsend and is team-friendly. The part that has me soured on the FO is the lack of activity in the FA market. They clearly have needs at SP and SS and given past budgets, money to spend. While they certainly can still make trades to acquire the needed pieces, that requires surrendering prospects instead of just money. It's not like they don't have the money, so I don't quite get it. My suspicion is that the Twins will trade for one veteran SP of the Sonny Gray ilk and maybe sign Pineda and someone like Jose Iglesias as stop-gaps in hopes that the young pitchers and Lewis/Martin develop. It seems this FO is pushing all of their chips in depending on those prospects to develop. If that is the case, they had better hope they pan out or they may be looking for a new job. I hope that my suspicion is incorrect, but their is little proof to the contrary thus far.
  7. I understand your point, but that is not entirely true. Both Maeda and Berrios were as good last year as anybody the Royals had in 2015. You don't have to have an "Ace", but it certainly helps.
  8. It feels like #1 is most likely at this juncture. #2 is unlikely to me as I can't see Falvey & Levine trading away a significant amount of their prospect pool to acquire a front end SP. They could have spent money they have available to sign one of the FA pitchers such as Ray, Gaussman or Stroman. Any one of those would have been a satisfactory signing. I suspect Greinke, Pineda, J. Iglesias and a couple of RP sounds about right. Ugh...
  9. This is where I am at. I sense a bunch of anger about the Twins not signing Berrios, but we really don't know what was offered to him. From my recollection Berrios has made it clear the past couple of years that he wanted to reach free agency, so it would have been crazy not to trade him if he was set on getting to FA. While I agree with much of the article, this part: "...and if an injury bug hadn’t hit him, the price tag would be well north of $250 million." seems a bit disingenuous. Buxton has played over 100 G once in 7 seasons. It's not just one little injury that has the Twins maybe a bit hesitant to offer big money. I'm not saying I'm opposed to offering over $100 million on a heavily incentive-laden contract , but let's not act like it's crazy to not want to commit big money to a player who has played less than 40% of the team's games the last four years. That being said I'd honestly be fine with something like a 7 year/$140 M contract, but I'd want the base to start at $70 M. Allow him to earn up to another $10 M per season based on games played, starting with incentives when he clears 100G. I'm not sure what is allowed as far as incentives, but I'm pretty sure they can't be performance-based. I think they have to be based on games or plate appearances.
  10. The system has to change. Players should not have to wait 6-7 years to become FA. Had Tatis not signed a huge extension, he would be making near the league minimum. I think it's ridiculous that a third year player who is a regular is making essentially the same as a rookie and will below a 7-year vet who might be vastly underperforming him. IMO there should be larger increases from year 1 to year 2 and then they should reach arbitration by year 3. They should be FA after their fourth (or maybe 5th year). There also needs to be a way to get rid of the gaming of the system on guys like Kris Bryant and soon-to-be Alex Kirilloff. I have to think that negotiating the next CBA is going to be a battle. There is an incredible amount of animosity between the owners and MLBPA. They couldn't come to a simple conclusion on universal DH that everyone is in favor of, simply because it's a bargaining chip in the next negotiations. I am not going to be surprised in the slightest if there is a lockout/strike prior to next season. I hope the two sides understand how much they can damage the sport and figure things out, but I'm not hopeful.
  11. While I can see the argument for Abreu and Santana being ahead of Sano, given the choice I would want Sano. Barring injury, I see minimal chance Sano is below 3rd in the division. Actually, I would say Santana is the likeliest to fall. Sano will be 28 this season, vs 35 for Santana and 34 for Abreu. Sano has a higher career OPS than Santana and Abreu's 2020 was a significant outlier from the previous two seasons. 2019 OPS: Sano 0.923, Santana, 0.911 and Abreu 0.834. If Sano plays 140-150 games this year, my money would be on Sano for sure for exactly the reason you stated. Sano's exit velocity is a strong indicator of success. He needs to reduce his K rate, but his EV leads to more hits on balls put in play. When the poll came out on Twitter, I voted for Abreu (for this year). Long term give me Sano all day.
  12. I think this sounds about right. I have no feeling for Gibaut and Waddell, but I would think Hamilton has the inside track due to the fact he has been claimed three times now. If the Twins like him I doubt they want to try to get him through waivers. It also helps that he has at least a minimum of MLB experience. I like the additions of Colome and Robles. Colome takes some of the pressure off of Rogers and gives them a great top 3. While Robles could be a bust, he was a good value add with some upside. Alcala offers excellent insurance if Robles doesn't work. He could be the next guy to rise up the ladder. I do have one quibble. I really don't think Rogers has struggled against RH. In 2019 he had a better OPS against vs RH (.611) than LH (.677). In 2018 it was .643 vs RH and .428 vs LH. I think he will rebound and have a great 2021. He was definitely a bit unlucky last year and having Colome will help. It will allow Rocco to use him better in advantageous matchups.
  13. Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up. Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable. The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason. Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race. The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way. What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox. The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.
  14. Ok, I'll give you the salary, but it's more like 1/3 of that since we didn't acquire him until the trade deadline.
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