Physics Guy

Not saying he will turn in to Koskie, just saying that Koskie wasn't that player until he was given opportunity. I'm skeptical he will turn into anything close the Koskie, but even if he isn't he can still be a productive player. He cleared 1.7 WAR with an awful second half. I think he could pretty easily be a mid-2 WAR player if he stays healthy.

Through his age-26 season (same as Miranda), Koskie had a 2.3 WAR. Hmmm....

Good thing the Twins didn't give up on Koskie when he started. He was sub-par to begin with and became an above average 3B. Miranda is roughly the same age that Koskie was when he settled in with the Twins. Give him a chance.

According to Fangraphs, France was #2 in scoops at 1B last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&season1=2024&season=2024&stats=fld&pos=1b&sortcol=15&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

I see this as a positive. If the Twins do move any of the Paddack, Vazquez and Castro trio, as has been rumored, maybe it won't just be to dump salary. Maybe they can actually bring back a RH outfielder or LH reliever, which are the two glaring weaknesses on this team (outside of avoiding the IL). On another note, I don't understand why nobody really talks about just putting Paddack in the BP. Yes, his salary is a bit high for the BP ($7.5M), but if they can't get adequate return they should try to make lemonade. He looked good in 2023 out of the BP in the postseason.

Wouldn't mind seeing them do this if they can get SF to eat half that contract, depending what we would have to give up. They only have something like 95M committed next year and a lot of cheap players that should probably be filling the lineup.

I guess now we know why Varland isn't in the bullpen. Gotta think he may take Zebby's place after tonight.

You mean like not leaving a slider middle, middle???

Ok, so you are the second guy to say throwing high pitches is on the coaches. Can you explain this? I turned on the game mid-1st and missed pregame. Was this something they discussed? Seems to me this is just a situation of bad command by a rookie pitcher.

Ok, so you are the second guy to say throwing high pitches is on the coaches. Can you explain this? I turned on the game mid-1st and missed pregame. Was this something they discussed? Seems to me this is just a situation of bad command by a rookie pitcher.

I was really hoping the Twins would claim him...until I found out about the $12M owed next year. Since he has gone unclaimed, clearly nobody wanted that contract. Does anybody know if the waiver claim is an all of nothing situation? Is there any way for the Giants to swallow part of the contract in order to induce a claim? I'm guessing no and assume Rogers will not be changing venues for this season. The Twins should consider a reunion for 2025 if the can reduce that salary because the LH bullpen situation is awful right now.

Without a doubt, health dragged them down last year. I have hopes that the moves this year have given them better depth at key positions and in the rotation. I do wonder if they would have made the Gallo move A) if they knew they were getting Correa and B) if they knew they wouldn't get appealing offers for Kepler.

I couldn't agree more. A baseball season can often wreck the best laid plans. The only two things I think the FO failed to address was adding another quality bullpen arm and adding a RH bat in the corners. Both of those were sort of addressed with Taylor and the return of Alcala, but they could definitely be addressed during the season.

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's. So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected. Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas. Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games: CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022. Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed. Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them. Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors. Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR) Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense. Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years.

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Dansby Swanson ($25M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 19.64% under budget