jmlease1

Houston had a very good season. I had a lot of questions about his bat, and he's doing a great job in quelling them so far. The glove is probably MLB-ready right now, which is a nice base to start from. It will be interesting to see where they start him next season; AAA would be an aggressive promotion, but hardly unwarranted. Expecting him to make the team out of spring training? Exceptionally unlikely. People get excited about the 50 steals, but should calm down. Kala'i Rosario swiped like 30 bags in AA and he's not that fast. Houston has good speed and should be an effective runner in MLB, but the 50 steals in 2026 doesn't really mean much. It's really easy to get steals in the minors if you're even a little aggressive about it. There's still some questions Houston needs to answer about his bat, even though he did a very good job in his first full pro season. As he faces more advanced pitchers and teams start to get a book on him, can he make adjustments? I've been impressed on how he's done facing down pitchers older than he is so far, but I'd like a little more evidence that his approach at the plate will work for him long term. He had a couple of power outages last season; while he doesn't need to be a 20 homer type of player to be a real asset, he also needs to be more than just a slap hitter. The 40 xbh in 116 games was encouraging as well...can he keep that going? He's on a really good path. Looking forward to seeing him earn his way to the starting SS job. Culpepper will slide over to 2B nicely if Houston shows he's ready.

It's funny that you think that the Twins don't have individualized plans for all their prospects, and a road map for where they hope that they will be, based on annual reviews of their actual development. They just don't share all those details with fans. But I think you're simply wrong with your concept of moving out the guys who aren't working out earlier. Development is not linear and if you start tossing out every prospect who struggles at A-ball you're going to be missing out on a lot of talent.

I think that's fair, I just don't think the roster spot is worth the risk, and think that we will get "stuck" with him if we tender him, and that Shelton might start him in LF as long as he's on the roster, no matter that he's better suited to DH or RF. I think his actual value on the open market is $5M or less and everyone else will lock up their preferred targets that way rather than give both extra money and some other compensation (even if it's very minor) to take Larnach off our hands.

I don't think Gonzalez's future with the Twins is all that complicated at all. He's still got a couple of option years left and if he shows he can hit in AAA in 2027 then he's going to get opportunities in MLB, whether it's corner OF, DH, or 1B because there will almost certainly be a need for his RH bat. Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't, but he's actually reasonably well-positioned. He needs to take a step forward; he didn't have a particularly good season at the plate, but he's also only 22 and had barely played in AAA. This isn't a guy who is 26 or repeating AAA for the 3rd time. And I'm not concerned that he didn't immediately produce in his late-season cup of coffee, because that's really what it was: he didn't exactly get much playing time. (7 PA's in 5 games is nothing) He'll very likely start next season in AAA, unless he's destroying it in spring training (which would be great) and there's not exactly a 40-man crunch right now for the Twins. GG's future with the Twins doesn't make my Top Ten list of off-season things to think about, let alone be concerned about,.

The Rosario comp is pretty accurate: Cleveland signed him to that FA deal (which was about what he would have gotten in arbitration, probably a bit less) and ended up trading him in a pure salary dump to save about $2M. They literally got nothing for him, since they immediately cut Sandoval. Eddie got hot for Atl, who then signed him to a contract they immediately regretted and he vastly under-performed, he got one more make-good contract with the Nats who cut him, and he hasn't been able to stick with anyone since and is out of MLB. And Larnach has never had a season anywhere near as good as Rosario's 2018. Reality is, there's always guys like this available for $4-8M on the FA market, and it's a crapshoot as to which one has one more good year in them. I think Larnach will hit RHP just fine for 2-3 more seasons, but won't give you anything else. If you need that bench bat and can get it for $2M, great! But that not what we're talking about.'

He doesn't have much trade value. We have to get past that. Did he out-play his contract in 2026? Sure, but he still wasn't a starting-quality player because all he brings to the table is hitting RHP. He's not a good defender. He doesn't add on the bases. He can't hit LHP. he's a good hitter against RHP (not a great one). Here's the other thing: he's not really getting any better. Larnach's production in 2026 was basically his production in 2024 (a few more games, a little better offense, even worse defense). What are the odds he's going to do better in 2027 at 30? He's probably not getting any faster, and there's nothing to suggest he's going to hit LHP any better. If we needed a LH platoon bat to play OF/DH, then his salary would be ok (not great, but ok) for 2027, but LH corner OF/DH is where we are stocked the most. Younger guys did tear it up in the minors last season and Larnach still played and played and played. They couldn't find a deal for him at the deadline; maybe it's because the Twins kept demanding too much...or maybe there was never much of a market for him. Which is more likely? Roden put up a 117 OPS+ in limited time and is 3 years younger, a better fielder, and a better runner (and can play 1B). Jenkins is a far superior fielder & runner with a much higher upside. Rodriguez is a much much better fielder and has a much higher upside. All are substantially cheaper. All need playing time. None will get enough run if Larnach is clogging the roster. It's ok to let a guy go with minimal or no compensation. It's not ideal, but you have to care more about roster composition than losing value. Larnach doesn't fit any longer, and if we keep chasing value with him we ensure we won't get better.

Tom Pohlad won't be making this decision, Jeremy Zoll will. Since Zoll tried dealing Larnach at the deadline (too bad Crane nixed it at the last minute!) I'd say the writing is on the wall.

This. It's not all that complicated. Larnach is a decent platoon DH who can stand in the OF. We need more than that. Between Buxton, Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Jenkins we already have 4 OF that are more likely to contribute more than just at the plate (even if Keaschall is as bad as Larnach in the field, he's still far superior on the bases). We've also got Roden, who is better defensively and on the bases, and may be as good a hitter, and Gonzalez who may be just as bad defensively, but can play against LHP. There's just little good in tying up resources and a roster spot in Larnach, who isn't a bad player, but is limited. You can't risk finding a trade after tendering him, so it's get whatever you can on him before the arb deadline (all you need is one team unsure if they can sign him if he's a FA and gets to pick his club). A-ball pitcher lottery ticket is enough. Save the money, save the roster spot, move along. Good luck Trevor, nothing personal.

Outside of Ty France, the FA pickings are exactly the same guys who were out there last season, only none of them got better. And seems likely that SD will try to keep France.

I generally agree: Twins should be shopping for their first option LHP in the bullpen (whether that's Minter or someone else at that level) and a RHP set-up man that could be the first pick to pitch the 7th-8th inning in higher leverage situations. Abreu seems to be a guy they like and want and would fit that role nicely, and giving him a 2 or even 3 year deal shouldn't be too high-risk. Right now they have: Hoffman, Gomez, Morris, Funderburk and maybe Nance and Sands along with Adams and some fringe guys to pick from. They need a LHP that can be trusted from Day 1 to pitch higher leverage situations and has more certainty than Funderburk. They need a RHP that can slot in behind Hoffman and makes you less reliant on Gomez and gives you more time to develop Morris as a reliever. They will have to spend to fill those roles, but they don't need to pay the additional 20-40% premium on "proven closer"; they already have Hoffman and despite late season struggles Gomez was quite good at pitching the 9th on a regular basis so they have guys who can finish games. A bullpen of Hoffman, Abreu, Minter, Gomez, Morris, Funderburk, and Sands with the last spot open to competition (maybe it's a reclamation project, maybe it's Zebby getting bumped to the bullpen, maybe it's Adams after an offseason in the lab, maybe it's Festa (lol) back and healthy). Even if you dump Sands into the "maybes" crowd and have 2 spots open, that's ok if that's the top 6. I wouldn't complain if they added 2 RHP with real velocity and experience to the bullpen, but they need 1 LHP and one RHP who can handle higher leverage roles from the jump. I actually like Morris quite a bit and think he could potentially be one of those guys, but we should want him to be a middle reliever who gets opportunities to test himself in higher leverage roles and has to earn his way into being a set-up guy.

Well, I prefer bWAR for pitchers, as the fWAR model for pitchers tries to describe what they think should have happened and bWAR more accurately describes what actually occurred on the field. So yes: I'm fine with paying $17M for 2 experienced relievers who collectively put up a 2 bWAR in 2026. Abreu has 5 straight seasons of a bWAR of 1 or more, has thrown 60 innings or more in all of them, with a K/9 of at least 11 in all of them. Orze has never done any of those things and is only a year younger. Minter's velocity was down this year (we'll see if it comes back up at all after a healthy offseason) but he adjusted his pitch mix and remained effective. He's been a quality reliever for years. I'd also suggest that he's unlikely to get a raise on his $11M AAV with his injury history in a market where there are plenty of LHP relievers on the market. I'm not looking for inning eaters here, I'm looking for guys you can trust with medium to high leverage situations from the jump. Both pitchers have the track record of success to show they're not just fungible relievers and raise both the floor of your bullpen by pushing less proven guys down the pecking order and the ceiling with their history of being able to step into roles late & close. If you want different guys, I'm open to it. But we shouldn't be looking at the Eric Orze's of the world to step in to cover the 7th or 8th inning next season out of spring training just because he had an ok FIP and his theoretical pitch quality looks good when his actual results are pretty meh. Want Orze back as the 7th guy in the bullpen? I'll listen. But not interested in him being looked at as the second or 3rd RHP out of the bullpen coming out of Spring TRaining.

I hope the team has realized that while building a bullpen on the cheap may be preferable, you can't expect to throw one together out of leftovers and failed starters in a single off-season. The acquisition of Hoffman who is under contract for 2027 suggests they know better this time and are remembering that losses in the beginning of the season count for just as much as losses at the end. I'm really hoping they bring back Minter or a similar LHP (it's probably the biggest depth area on the FA market, LH relievers). Add in another real set-up guy (Abreu was a guy they tried to acquire already and would be a good fit) with Hoffman, Gomez, and Morris and now you have a bullpen that should be solid from the jump with real impact arms available late & close. That's real insurance if Sands doesn't get his velocity back, Funderburk doesn't take another step forward, etc. The good thing is, with Hoffman already signed and Gomez with experience as a 9th inning guy, the twins don't have to overpay for a "closer". They can spend market rate on 2 set-up guys (whether it's Minter & Abreu or someone else) and have a bullpen that can actually support what should be a pretty good rotation (depending, as always, on health) and even have some money to invest in the lineup.

unfortunately the 1B market is pretty dismal and/or risky and I'm not exactly thrilled with the 2B opportunities. I know people around here are obsessed with Arraez, but he's been pretty poor since joining Philly and frankly none of the options sitting in FA are likely to be significant improvements on Clemens, unless you're one of the 7 people who think Jazz Chisholm is ripe for a big bounce back. I'd certainly spend at catcher to bring back Jeffers, but I think the Twins are going to get out-bid.

As a baseline, I can see this. It's important to think of it that way: this is a potential starting point, a "no moves" roster, not even a prediction of what might get done or any suggestion that this is what Nick thinks the Twins should or even will do. That said, I do think that Ober is gone. Much as they love Ober, I think they and we all know at this point that he has little to no chance of recovering his velocity, he's a likely candidate to spend time on the IL, and while he can chew up innings in the back of your rotation the upside is unfortunately gone. I think they'll explore trade options with him before non-tendering him. Someone else will give him a 1 year deal in the $3-5M range when they miss out on other free agents and just need to fill a spot. I'm increasingly of the opinion that Lewis is going to go as well. And as much as I've always rooted for him, it's probably time to see if a change will do him good. While the 1B market for FA is pretty rotten, letting Lewis go opens up more opportunity to take on salary in a trade as well, and if a significant upgrade isn't found? I'd rather roll with internal options from the minors and see what happens. Pick up a 1B glove, Alan Roden. Work on your footwork, Hendry Mendez. Even Sabato feels like he might have more upside at this point than Royce (probably not, but how can we expect anything from Royce at this point). My initial thought is that Banda won't be back either; he's fairly cheap but he's coming off a significant injury and he's hardly lit the world on fire. As a second LHP, he's fine but I think Funderburk is more likely to get that opportunity: cheaper and not coming off an injury. While I really want them to find an offensive upgrade in FA or via trade, I'm having trouble figuring out what that looks like. I suspect Ty France will get priced out...and he's a bit of a risk for the 4 year deal he'll unquestionably be looking for. The rest of the 1B options are unimpressive. The bullpen is a pretty reasonable place to put some dollars and keep a quality bullpen in place for Opening Day (whenever that might be). Bring back Minter as the top LHP. Add Abreu to be a 7th-8th inning guy as a RHP with experience and ability. I do think Sands will be here if his velocity is back post-surgery. YMMV on whether that's good, but 2024 Sands was really good. Maybe the other spot besides 1B to try and get an upgrade is the Kreidler/Ross type of spot?

This is a joke, right? He's not signing an extension unless he changes his agent, so that's out the window already. You want to burn additional payroll space as a giveaway, because we're not getting anything more for it. You think he's getting more in arbitration after an injury-filled second half where he struggled mightily (again)? The projections are usually pretty on-target; what are the odds that Ryan would even file at over $12M after his season? There's going to be faux bitterness for any player that actually goes to arbitration, because pride gets in the way. Even though the current arbitration system itself guarantees raises for the players, regardless of their actual performance on the field they still all get mad about it. Additionally, you see pride in the way if you non-tender a player; it's really hard to re-sign that player after that, even if you're offering the same or more money than might be available in FA because pride gets in the way and they're insulted that they were non-tendered in the first place. But mid-market and small market teams can't get caught up in that or they end up overcommitting to players.