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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'd rather ride with Travis Adams in the bullpen than guys like Luis Garcia or even Justin Topa. Let's find out what we have with some of these younger guys who might be part of the future. Maybe it doesn't happen for Adams and he ends up just being a marginal guy, but let's see what happens when he pares down the repertoire, works on refining those pitches, and maybe gets a tick more velo from throwing 1-2 innings instead of trying to pace for 5+ There's some possibilities here.
  2. jmlease1
    It's great seeing Lewis hit bombs against AAA pitching, but that's not going to get him an immediate bounce back call-up, and I think the Twins staff will have explained that to him. He's got to show that he is addressing the things that ruined him in MLB: not being able to hit fastballs in the zone, flailing at breaking pitches away, showing poor pitch recognition, and so on. It's great for his confidence to murder a mistake, but the process matters as much as the results for him, and the difference between AAA pitching and MLB pitching is substantial. But if he can do a re-set in Saint Paul, find his smile again, and come back ready to roll then that's excellent news. I remain baffled by the people who seem to prefer that he fail? Quick is fascinating. He hunts K's like nobody's business and can just overpower guys, which is very fun. 10 BBs in 20 1/3 innings says he needs some work, though. Upside feels very high, and the floor is pretty dang high too, so looking forward to seeing where he is in another month. Just want to see him get a full season and at least another 50-60 innings innings in, even if he stays at Cedar Rapids the rest of the year.
  3. jmlease1
    There's a very sticky belief around here that Polanco had a lot more value than he actually did in 2024 too. Did the Twins make a great trade? No, because DeScalfani was a bust who ate up payroll while providing nothing. But they did get a good asset in GG who has real ability as a hitter, and while Topa imploded really badly this season (extremely disappointing; while the injury issues were predictable, him stinking up the joint like a week old dead fish was much less likely) he'd been useful before. Polanco's injury history, salary, and questions about his defensive position made him harder to trade than people thought and the value prospect around the league just wasn't what people expected in his walk year. It's notable that after a meh season in Seattle he re-signed at a pay cut in his first chance at free agency. What's fairly unbelievable is that after a bounce back season he got such a stunner of a deal from the Idiot Mets. I mean, good for him: good dude, and he's set up his family for generational wealth if he's careful but he would have needed to stay healthy and hit like prime Jorge while fielding an actual position beyond DH for that deal to be worth it. What insanity. GG needs to get his bat on track, but I think he can get there again. He's definitely showing he can punish LHP, which is certainly something the Twins need to be getting from the OF. Would love to see him be a guy who can play some OF/1B/DH and give the Twins the ability to mix and match more with their hitters. Bell won't be here next season, Outman might be gone sooner rather than later, Larnach seems unlikely to get re-signed, Wallner has opened the door for someone to take his job, Caratini isn't going to be playing much 1B in the future (JMO) so there is real opportunity for someone like GG to go out and win a job. Glad he got a start with this cup of coffee.
  4. jmlease1
    I think that's right. As much as they want to see Royce have success, they want to make sure his process is in a good place, not just that he's crushing AAA mistakes. Results alone won't get him back up. There's enough guys in AAA that throw real gas, and they're going to want to see that he can catch up to it again and hit fastballs, not just punishing a hanger. Get into a repeatable swing doesn't vary from game to game let alone AB to AB. But probably good for his confidence to crush a couple. I'm not going to get excited about Quinn McDaniel until he gets up to AA and starts doing this; this is his 3rd spin at high A as a college bat and he struggled mightily at the plate the last two seasons. Good for him if he's unlocked something, but right now it's a good 2 weeks for a dude beating up on younger pitchers. Pretty happy with what we're seeing from Amick, though; this is much more like the guy we saw before he got hurt in 2025 and it's nice to see the power coming through. Wouldn't mind seeing more contact right now, but the walk rate is good and he's doing what he needs to do. The other key for him will be showing he can hold up over a full season, so we'll see. But a nice re-start for him after a brutal AFL. Impressed with Mendez taking 3 walks. Easy for a guy who is hitting like he is to start swinging away, thinking that he'll nail whatever it is, so maintain a good approach and taking the walks on offer is a good thing. Would love it if he turns out to be a real guy for this franchise. He's definitely taken a step forward since coming over here from Philly...could it be that the Twins developmental staff actually helped him improved? (gotta be careful about saying anything nice about the Twins developmental staff; it's basically all people from the Falvey Era...)
  5. jmlease1
    I don't know if that's necessarily true; with the various injuries to Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Roden there's probably just been more playing time available in the OF. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets some more time there later this season. He's certainly hitting like he wants a look in MLB, which is great to see. I know it's just A-ball and he's still just a kid, but holy cow Quentin Young's glove looks pretty bad so far. 16 errors in 36 games this season? Good grief. Congrats to GG on the promotion to MLB! Even if it's only a cup of coffee for now, he made it.
  6. jmlease1
    I think that's about right. Fedko has more upside defensively (he can credibly play CF, whereas Garlick was more of a "break glass" type there) and Garlick couldn't stay healthy...but as a hitter that would actually be a useful comp, a RH bat who can mash LHP. That's a useful player But I just don't see the Twins mucking around with their 40-man right now to see if Fedko can be Garlick. But if he keeps hitting, he might get a chance. Might have had more of a chance if we hadn't kept rolling the dice on Outman, but it is what it is.
  7. jmlease1
    I think Fedko has some potential, but hard to say he's been treated badly. AAA is the first time that he hasn't needed a second try at a level to have success in his professional career. It's the first time he's had success when he wasn't older for the level. and despite his hot start in AAA in 2025, he struggled in his last month there. And it's notable that he passed through the Rule 5 draft. Would I like to get a look at Fedko this season? Sure, why not if he keeps hammering the ball like this. Defensively Outman is probably a bit better (certainly more experienced) and might be a touch better as a runner too, but could Fedko fill that role? I think he could, and this is where you see how much value 40-man roster spots have. If Fedko were on the 40-man, he might be getting that shot. Unfortunately of the OF guys on the 40-man are 2 are lefthanded and unavailable, 1 is LH and getting his first taste of AAA, and the last one is RH and struggling in his first full season in AAA. To me, this is why keeping Outman was such a mistake at the outset. While it looks less bad with Roden getting injured, the Twins have a glut of OF on the 40-man and no room to add someone like Fedko without DFAing someone. To me, DFAing Outman isn't much of a loss if he goes to another organization and isn't much of a risk either...but the Twins clearly feel different.
  8. jmlease1
    whoops! forgot about his rehab when I peeked at his Saints stat line this morning. He's definitely not getting recalled for Gray's paternity leave then.
  9. jmlease1
    With Arcia & Kreidler both up there's plenty of room to add an OF for Gray's paternity leave, so I'd look at Mendez, who is having no trouble with AAA pitching so far. I'm not really sure what benefit there is to calling up Royce, who has barely been at Saint Paul and after hitting 2 homers he might think he's back and deserves to stay, rather than get sent back again when Gray returns, and now you have A Thing. Mendez can get a cup of coffee now and you have to think he'd get a look this season regardless (even if it might normally be september) so you're not really burning an option for nothing. Congrats to Olivar on the promotion to AAA! He should get a long look to see if he can keep catching and I'm looking forward to seeing how he adapts to a new level of competition. He was someone that was looked at a lot previously as being a big upside guy and fell off a bit, but seems to be back on track. He's not getting a promotion just because they need catching in Saint Paul: he deserves it based on production.
  10. jmlease1
    There's increasing West Coast Bias too, but regardless the media loooooves to try and pry star players out of smaller markets. Look at what's going on with Ant & the Wolves. Zero indicators that he's unhappy in MN, his team has been quite good over the last 3 seasons, but because the Wolves lost in the playoffs you have multiple media members talking up trades to "get him out of MN". (none of these trade ideas are good in any way for the Wolves, of course) It's the same thing with any of the trade ideas being floated for Buxton or Ryan right now.
  11. jmlease1
    Might be a good time to get him up to AAA and dig in on his ability to keep playing catcher. His primary position might be "hitter", but is he can even be acceptable at catcher, finding out now would be great, and there will be playing time in Saint Paul
  12. jmlease1
    Love seeing Tait park one. I think he's doing just fine for being 19 at high A. He's what, like 2 years younger than anyone else on the roster? Good to see DeBarge get one too; he's had a rough season at the plate so far, needs some success. Looking at the Wichita roster, I've noticed Olivar is having a nice year so far; he's mostly fallen off the map, but dude has shown a big power plus-up this season and should get strong consideration of a promotion around midseason if he keep whacking the ball like this. Would not complain about him making a leap.
  13. jmlease1
    That dirty SOB. How dare he be rewarded for ceaseless work , quality writing, and actual humor in covering the Twins! :P
  14. jmlease1
    Twins offense is at it's best this season when they're grinding out walks. When they're putting together 4-5 baserunners via the free pass it's been doing good things for them. When they're up there hacking it's been much less reliable. Lee & Martin are both struggling right now, despite Brooks getting the triple. Nice job from Zebby after giving up the dinger; he settled down and got the job done. Nice job by Adams & Banda as well. Tough loss. Finding offense is going to be more challenging without Jeffers, who has been consistently dangerous all season. Need to see more from Keaschall, Martin, Lee, and Larnach.
  15. jmlease1
    Okert is just a reminder how so many veteran relievers are fungible assets that you shouldn't invest real money in. He's been solid enough for Houston, just like he was in Miami. He "stunk" with the Twins because in a small sample in 2024 he simply couldn't get RH batters out. Normalize his splits a little more and suddenly he's a perfectly acceptable LHP in the bullpen who is annihilating LH hitters and getting thumped by RH hitters, but not destroyed by them. There's a reason he's playing on a $2M contract. He'd very likely be doing the exact same things if he was still with the Twins, but fans would have lost their minds if they'd brought him back after 2024.
  16. jmlease1
    It hasn't worked out well so far, but we didn't exactly lose much: Polanco was expensive and there was little market for him. Before Topa imploded this season the deal wasn't that far off even, making it a minor move. Polanco was bad enough that he had almost no offers and took a significant pay cut in his free agency year. (congrats to the Mets for massively overpaying him; he's been bad and now is hurt) You seem to have some expectation that Polanco had a lot more value than he did; this wasn't Jorge from 2021, who played at an all-star level, this was a guy getting more expensive, while playing less.
  17. jmlease1
    I don't think anyone really expected a quick return to form for Wallner, so probably not much of an indicator...yet. We'll see: maybe he gets it together or maybe he simply can't catch up to fastballs any longer. at 28. But at least the Twins have properly sent him down to AAA to figure it our, which is the same for Royce. They both got extended looks this season, both had an excuse that maybe bought them some additional time (Wallner was exposed to too many LHP, Royce had an injury that put him on the shelf for a bit) but both have been not just bad at the plate but looked entirely lost. I appreciate the fact that the Twins didn't wait until June (or later) to make some of these calls. I like to think that if Rodriguez was healthy they would have pulled the pin on Outman as well by now, especially with Wallner's performance. be interesting to see what Arcia brings: he should be at least solid defensively at 3B and it seems impossible for him to hit less. Mostly a platoon with Gray? Maybe give Keaschall some breaks at 2B? Lineup is missing some thump with Jeffers out, so really need Buxton back.
  18. jmlease1
    That's just made up math. It's -1.4 bWAR, because Topa has really sucked this season. Going into the year it was -0.8 bWAR with GG still to play out. You simply can't honestly count Polanco's second season with Seattle, where he signed as a free agent, against the trade. Hells bells, why not count Polanco's rotten season (and terrible contract) to date with the Mets?!?
  19. jmlease1
    I think he might be good enough to deserve it, but I suspect he'll never hit a list. Too many prospect evaluators value tools and projectability over production and almost punish prospects for being too close to a the MLB call-up. They're likely to ding Mendez for not showing enough power production. I think that's a mistake, but I don't need the Twins prospects to all get the blessing of the national prospect evaluators. If Dasan Hill were eligible for the purposes of this exercise, he'd be the easy choice I think. There's also a fair case that the Twins next first round draft pick could/should be a top 100 guy on Day 1.
  20. jmlease1
    well, I hate the idea of losing Ryan generally, but who is making offers right now? A lot of teams don't even know if they're contenders or not, so we're not getting good offers right now we're getting "sure, I'll take him for 2 A-ball lottery ticket pitchers coming off TJ!" Good luck trying to sell off in May; there's maybe 1 buyer.
  21. jmlease1
    Tough one. Hate to see Lewis getting sent down, but there was little choice left. Sending him out to flail away wasn't doing him any good and it certainly wasn't good for the team for multiple reasons. Dreadful news about Jeffers, who was having a great season. What a bummer. Guess we'll what what Alex Jackson can do for us. Glad they DFA'd Topa. I wasn't sure they would; they have historically given veterans a lot of rope, but yeesh Topa has looked bad lately. Adams isn't exactly exciting but he should be more competent and at least has some upside potential. Arcia should add some consistency to the infield, and I wonder if we're going to see Kreidler playing more outfield? Would still really like Rodriguez to get healthy and get up here. To me, the clock is ticking on Outman now. He's going to get some additional opportunities and if he can't do anything with them then he should get the DFA as soon as Rodriguez is ready...and if not him then give Mendez a shot if he stays on a roll. No more scholarships.
  22. jmlease1
    A nice list. The question with Mendez isn't whether or not he'll hit, but whether or not he'll show some power production, since he's unlikely to be much of an asset defensively. He did well last season at AA and has continued to show enough this year to make me think that he can be an impactful hitter. Hope he keeps rolling. Again, he doesn't need to be a 20+ homer guy (be nice if he was), just someone who can punish the ball if a pitcher leaves one hanging or tries to groove a fastball to get a cheap strike. Hill has tremendous upside. Am still concerned about his walks, but that's an A-ball pitcher for you. I won't be shocked if he spends most or all of the season in Cedar Rapids, and that's fine IMHO. As he starts to refine thinks more promotion will be a fairly natural process and he could make jumps quickly. Moring is interesting. I think he could move up to Cedar Rapids sooner rather than later as a college pitcher. He's showing he can get after professional hitters, so I won't be surprised if he starts getting pushed a little. Nifty start.
  23. jmlease1
    Rojas really did look good. Hope this is a sign rather than a fluke, but he's still pretty wild. But my goodness the stuff is excellent when he's cooking. Really thought the bullpen was going to kick this game away for a bit; Topa was quite bad and really doesn't have an excuse of the weather delay. Looking at his last 5 games there's 3 really bad ones and 2 good ones and that's not a ratio we can live with. Bummer that the rain came in after just 1 inning from SWR. Really wanted to see how he'd do in a 2-3 inning stint. Great to see Bell get off the shnide; he's actually hit some balls hard lately but come up with nothing, so maybe the 2 dingers gets him rolling again. With Jeffers going down (sigh) we need him slugging.
  24. jmlease1
    Did you really want Ober going back out for one more? He was dancing through the raindrops, not dominating. Happy he limited the damage, but who cares what his pitch count was? The goal is to win the game, not have the starter throw 100 pitches. Ober was getting hit pretty hard, be happy he fought through 5.
  25. jmlease1
    Morris is starting to look like he could be a high-octane late inning reliever. Love to see it. Need to find another one like him this season but it's a start. Glad the Twins got at least one out of this series; frankly would have felt a little unfair if they'd gotten swept. And certainly good to see the offense be less tepid. Clemens is one one of his patented hot streaks, so let's ride it for as long as it lasts. Keaschall still needs to keep it going, but at least he's starting to trend in the right direction. Royce on the other hand just continues to struggle. The early K to let Gasser off the hook seemed inevitable; it was good to see him fighting off pitches, but did anyone feel like he was going to come through there? It's getting sad. Think he goes down by June. Not a great Ober start, but he did enough. He gave them a chance, which is just fine.
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