jmlease1

Eh. We'll see. I expect he repeats in AA (which happens) and then we'll see whether he's really made an effective change in approach at the plate that translates or if it's just beating up on younger/lesser pitchers in a small sample size. The reality is, DeBarge's 2025 wasn't very good; he rode a hot start to his season into decent overall numbers, but the pop utterly vanished from his bat after about mid-May and he increasingly started having problems making enough contact and generating hits. 2026 was a repeat of what we saw through the end of 2025. The steals were nifty in 2025, but relatively meaningless in A-ball. yes, he kept swiping bags in 2026, but fewer and a worse success rate. The glove is good, the speed and baserunning is nice, but he's got to hit better than this to have a chance to be more than org depth. He's not a significant prospect at this point and could easily be made available in a trade if someone else got excited about him. Rooting for him to make it work, but he either needs to be ripping a lot more hits or making enough hard contact to get that SLG% up over .400, because the easy walks dry up the higher you rise in the system and he'll start getting overwhelmed by pitchers with better stuff and better control. I'm not giving up on him and he could still make it, but he looks like a utility guy at most right now. He wasn't a bad guy to take a risk on, but some of this may have been predictable. He wasn't playing in a power conference, and struggled in the wooden bat Cape Cod league, so how much of his college success was due to the quality of the pitching he faced, band box stadiums, and aluminum bats?

Pass. When Pagan is good he can be very very good, but when he's bad he's rotten. expecting consistency from Pagan, especially at this point in his career is...optimistic. I'm certainly not giving him 2 years at that kind of money; you're mostly paying a premium for the overrated title of "proven closer". If it's late in the FA market, we've already added 2 quality relievers with real velocity to support Hoffman, and the market drops to where he'd be a cheaper add to be the 3rd or 4th option late? I'd consider it, but I'm not chasing him early, that's for bloody sure.

The pitching is definitely much more A-ball level from what we're seeing. much fewer of the rising AA types of pitchers unless they missed a lot of time and the team is trying to just get them some work. Seeing fewer serious prospects and more guys looking for a chip a chair and a chance. IMHO.

I'm rooting for DeBarge, but his Glove Glove wasn't last year it was the year before in A-ball...and may have been a little sus. KLaw was definitely a skeptic on that front. I'm glad to see he's doing well in the AFL, because he needs to show his bat can add value. He didn't hit well in Cedar Rapids or in Wichita and 2 consecutive seasons with a low BA and little to no power in his bat bodes poorly for his future. Hopefully he's figuring some things out. But he got a lot of hype with a super-fast start to his season in Cedar Rapids and has fallen off pretty substantially since. Maybe a good run in the AFL kickstarts his season and he's figured out enough to get things going. But he's 23 and should be beating up on A-ball type pitchers at this point if he's going to have a career. he's not the type of the players the Brewers are loaded up on: they had guys who could hit. If they were striking out like DeBarge they were also ripping xbhs. If they weren't K-ing like that they were hitting .270 or better and not sitting down in the .220-.230 range

it's possible, but he'll be a year older at a position where players don't usually age well. He'll be taking an injury risk, and coming off a season where he had an injury that caused him to miss significant time he'd then be bearing the dreaded "injury risk" title if he goes back to back on injury years. It's not like Jeffers had a rep for durability, even if some of that was just the Twins choice in trying to protect him. The age-31 contract might be 3 for $45M...or 2 for $30M. Of course, if he crushes the 2026 season with a 4 bWAR outing...then it's not an overpay and he gets a bigger deal.

I've been of the position that the QO with Jeffers was a no-lose proposition. If he accepts (which I consider unlikely) they get the quality RH bat at a position where offense is scarce for one more season, and there's just not that much downside to a 1 year deal, even if it is an overpay. It's the overpays on 3-5 year deals that sink you. If he declines, we get the pick. Which is the most likely scenario, unless you're foolish enough to listen to Jim Bowden, who has an incredible record of being wrong all the damn time and then pretending he was right all along.

LOL, people keep flacking this like they know it's somehow true. Sonny Gray is mad every time he gets pulled off the mound. He had the same kinds of reactions in StL and in Boston. Dude has basically never wanted to come out of a game in his entire career. (which is something I like about him) It doesn't mean he has any real beef with the coaches. Gray didn't leave MN because he hated Rocco or Maki; he left because he wanted a multi-year deal, wanted pretty big money, and wanted to pitch closer to home and the Twins weren't interested in any of that, which is why they gave him the QO and wished him luck. I think they were correct to do so; St.L paid him $55M for 3.9 bWAR over 2 seasons (including paying $20M for him to pitch in Boston last season). I'll pass on Gray, who has had a fine career, but should not be counted on to repeat his 2026; it's notable that Gray has never followed up his best seasons with a similar output.

Interesting moves. Don't hate it. Am a little curious as to why Matt Shaw is showing as the 2B on the graphic when you talked up a deal to get Ramirez for the 2B job? And what is the final payroll number? I'm less enthusiastic about Bauers, simply because I'm a bit nervous about getting more LH reliant (admittedly, his splits from 2026 were excellent) and the fact that he's had exactly one season as a quality starter in MLB and that happened for him at age 30. Lot of money to put on a guy with little history of success until this season. ramirez is an interesting player to go get: like the speed/defense there from a switch hitter who can also be useful when not starting to give options as a runner late and then not need to trigger an additional move on defense much of the time.

Nope, I'm a trash poker player with a million tells. Fortunately, you don't need to bluff to pull this off. It's not a disaster if Jeffers takes the QO, which is why you can offer it. It's not a desperate bluff, it's a no-lose. 1 year for a great hitting catcher when half the starters can't hit their weight? It's a bit spendy and it sucks having Caratini's contract on the books, but you don't make the bad backup contract the enemy of having a starting quality catcher whose hitting profile is almost ideal for your lineup. If he turns it down (which is far and away the most likely scenario), you get the pick in compensation. This really isn't that hard...unless Tommy P. plans to Pohlad the budget. But that's a different damn problem.

Contreras was good and had an excellent season. But he wasn't really any better at blocking the plate during the season than Jeffers, and Jeffers is one of the best in the game at challenging pitches and flipping counts/gaining outs. The one thing Contreras does much better is throw. That's the one thing Jeffers is actually quite weak on defensively. But I'd argue the extra 50-60 points of OPS makes up for it. It's notable that they had basically the same bWAR (which is a counting stat) in 2026, despite Jeffers playing a lot less because of injury. If you're going to argue intangibles for Contreras are you going to ignore them for Jeffers? He's well-liked in the clubhouse, known for being smart and informed. I'd bet his preparation on game days is outstanding, and there isn't a single pitcher who has asked for someone else to throw to. It'd be nice to get more defense from the catching position, especially in controlling the running game, because neither guy was good at it in 2026. But that's not really where our defensive problems were last season: it was SS, when Lee or Gray were manning the spot. It was 2B when Keaschall was butchering another grounder. It was 1B when Bell or Caratini couldn't move, Clemens couldn't scoop, or Lewis didn't know what to do. It was RF when Wallner couldn't react and LF when Larnach was too slow. Catcher wasn't where one of our top 5 problems were on defense.

LOL. Call me crazy...

If these numbers are anywhere near correct, I'll eat my hat. If you look at Jeffers last 4 seasons, in his worst year he was still worth $10M+; in his best he was worth closer to $30M. Even if you believe that catchers inevitably decline in their 30's, he's still almost certainly going to be worth $15M AAV over the next 3 seasons. If Jeffers market is really this crap then the Twins should be offering him 3 at $40M right now and locking him up! But Bowden is a well-known fool, so... He's easily the best catcher available in a weak market with several teams with real need at the position. These numbers are literally crazy-pants.

They should extend the QO and if the thing that holds them back is a real fear he might accept and they'd have to pay him $23M, then we have a much bigger problem ahead of us. Look, it wouldn't be ideal to devote $34M to catcher next season, but it's one year and doesn't ruin you going forward and Jeffers will almost certainly hold up his end of the bargain. There are very limited good options for improving the lineup at 1B, which where we probably need the help the most, so again...would it really be that bad? No, unless Tommy P is lying about the payroll going up and planning on investing. Which he might be: it's more than fair to not trust anything a Pohlad says, and only watch what they actually do. If they're afraid to extend the QO, to me it's a sign that they're lying about investing. But the reality is, Jeffers is highly unlikely to accept the QO: there will be multi-year deals available to him for at least twice that total value, and if he takes the QO and gets hurt again, those will fall off as he'll be older and now "injury prone". Real possibility he could be looking at 4 years and $70M from a team like the Yankees, and even a worst case scenario would bring him 3 years and $45. Hell, if I'm the Twins, I'd offer him 3 for $45 in a heartbeat, even with Lackey, Tait, and Tinney in the minors. Offer the QO. Make sure he doesn't walk for nothing. It'll be fine. And if you're too scared to take that chance, resign now because you don't have the stomach for this game.

Sabato will not be back. Twins management has been pretty clear they don't view him as a realistic 1B option, so he's far more likely to look for a different organization to give him a shot than the one that was only willing to give him the tiniest of looks this season, despite everything having fallen apart at the end. It's too bad; I would have liked them to give him a real look rather than 6 ABs, but my expectations for MLB success are limited. Not sad to see gray go: he was far worse than projected/promoted on defense and his offense was extremely disappointing. Team got fooled by a decent first month at the plate (and weirdly, Gray hit well at Target Field?) into thinking there was more there. He was just bad, and I'm glad they're cutting him loose early. Banda probably sticks if he wasn't still hurt, but since he's 33, coming off a serious injury, and not expected to return until June, you have to let him go. Wouldn't mind seeing him signed to a minor league deal to rehab it and maybe be a second-half option for the bullpen, but wouldn't go further than that. I could see him accepting that, as it's unlikely anyone gives him a MLB deal? They definitely could have cut deeper if they had needed to, but I wouldn't expect them to drop any asset now they don't think they need to send out. Wallner will not be on the team in 2027, but they'll try to see if they can throw him into a trade of some kind. His value is minimal at this point, but there's still some: he had enough MLB success that it wouldn't be hard for a team to talk themselves into saying, "ehhh, MN just screwed up. we're smarter than them, we can fix him!" But they're still not going to give up much of anything for him.

Roberts has also been with the Dodgers for 11 seasons. Few managers make it to 15 any longer and with the sudden instability in ownership things could get impatient. Plus LA has a bit of a roster crunch coming with an aging set of position players. If they miss winning a pennant again they might do a re-set on the roster and include the manager in the changeover. I think it's most likely that Baldelli looked at the situation in Seattle and thought "I dunno about this roster and this front office." and legit would rather roll with a more comfortable job in LA that doesn't take him away from his young family. His kids are 5 and 3, and he's got money.

People around here are obsessed with getting Arraez back. Good luck with that.

Interesting projection. For the lineup, it's definitely predicated on several top prospects being ready/not falling apart, which as we saw with Lewis, Miranda, Julien, and Wallner certainly is not a sure thing. I do think there's a real possibility that Tait is with the club as a backup catcher option, and I could see the team picking one out of the Kreidler/Ross/DeBarge basket for the "utility guy who can play SS" dude. I suspect if/when Culpepper moves to 2B to make room for Houston they won't be using him as the backup SS, but I could be wrong. Certainly have to hope that we see enough out of Jenkins & Rodriguez that they're part of the future, and that Keaschall doesn't slide back (for the record, I don't think he will). It certainly would be interesting to have a lineup that has 8 players who were all drafted & developed by the Twins, but it seems unlikely. Rotation is going to be an interesting one. I could definitely see them extending Lopez if they can find a number and term that works, and I would not be upset about that at all. I think there's a real possibility that Quick is in the rotation instead of Rojas, whom I still have many questions about from a control perspective. There's also a non-zero chance that they would sign a veteran starter to be the 5th guy for 2028 in order to hold some depth, which will likely be challenged a bit against by then unless some additional depth rises from the minors. I'm doubtful we'll be seeing Sands or Raya in the bullpen in 2028. Much more likely that Zebby is in there, and at least one other unfamiliar name; bullpens just churn more. I think there's zero chance the 2028 bullpen is made up of 7 guys who all pitched in relief for the Twins in 2026.

If Bowden's numbers are anywhere in the ballpark then the Twins should definitely be in on him. 3 years and anything below $50M would be absolutely worth it. for this guy. I just don't know that's going to be the price. I'd be nervous about tacking on the extra year...but I might be willing to go 4 for $60M. I just generally think that Bowden is a fool who makes up numbers and projects every FA to sign with 6 clubs total, none of which will ever be in the midwest (despite his tenure in Cincy) But he'd be a great fit. Absolute death against LH hitters, doesn't get beat up against RH hitters (last season he crushed them quite nicely too) and if paired with Hoffman would give you 2 guys that you can deploy against the heart of the other team's order in late & close.

It was a disastrous outing for Lares, but...it's 1 bad day, you know? He didn't pitch a ton in 2026 and missed all of 2025, so I'm guessing he's still working his way back together. His first 2 outings were solid, and he clearly just needs the work. Definitely feels like the AFL is the "we need to get guys work in a controlled environment" league now. which is fine, just means we probably need to change the expectations for what it means for guys when they go there.

I hope it's nothing but every surgery on a Twins player these days feels like impending doom... We need Hoffman, badly.

Happy to see DeBarge and Mercedes both doing well. DeBarge has not hit so far in the minors really at all and struggled at pretty much everything last season offensively: too many K's, no pop, low BA, nothing. Even started getting caught on the bases more. Sure, AFL pitching is probably closer to High A now than AA like it used to be, but it's still good to see DeBarge actually doing something with it. Defensively, he's a guy that could slot into several positions, but he has to hit at least something. Mercedes is interesting, showed a few things in A-ball, and it's good for him to get some additional ABs. It may be a hitter's league, but he's doing pretty well for a guy who hasn't turned 22 yet, and could see himself in AA in 2027.

It was interesting that Abreu seemed to be available at the deadline from a team that was trying to close the year with a playoff spot. Was that because of his declining stuff, terrible start to the season, or something else? I don't know that Abreu is the right pick, but he's got a lot of the attributes you're looking for and has been the kind of RHP the Twins need to sign. He's been healthy, consistently effective and impactful (yes, even with the awful start to 2026), has real velocity, and shouldn't be on his last legs at 30. The profile is generally right, it's really just a question of whether you think he'll bounce back a little bit (or just maintain) or if you think he's on the start of a real and significant decline. The other question is really what kind of contract Abreu or a pitcher of his ilk will demand in the market; if people are handing out 3 year deals, it's going to be a challenge for the twins because I don't think that's something they're particularly interested in for relievers, especially ones that are on the wrong side of 30. 1 or 2 years? Much more workable. There's plenty of talent available, but demand will be significant as well as everyone will have watched this year's playoffs and seen how impactful strong bullpens are. So I really don't know where the wages will land. Not opposed to Abreu, but we shouldn't get too locked in on him just because he names came up a lot during the season.

Because the Twins MLB squad was made up with slow guys who weren't good baserunners, except for Buxton? The idea that Rocco didn't want to run and be aggressive on the bases is really just made up. The weren't drafting/developing speed. Who were the guys that were on the roster in 2020-2024 that you wanted trying to steal more? Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and Miguel Sano? Ryan Jeffers and Luis Arraez's bad knees? Correa & Urshela? Solano, Polanco, and the corpse of Joey Gallo? Fat Manny Margot (let's be happy with the 4 bags Carlos Santana swiped)? Unsurprisingly, they ran more in 2025 when it was healthy Buxton, Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, healthy Royce, Harrison Bader, and Kiersey on the roster. But if you expected Rocco to be sending Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers all the time...I don't know what to tell you, other than please never manage a baseball game. Notably, Shelton had the Twins with fewer stolen bases in his first season than Rocco did in his last. But much like Rocco, Shelton was happy to send the guys who could run (Buxton when healthy, Royce when healthy, Keaschall, even Clemens). But he wasn't sending Bell, Larnach, or Lee and who can blame him? Team should be better defensively if they have Culpepper at SS, Lee at 3B, Keaschall not in the infield, and Rodriguez & Jenkins in the OF and they should be able to run more with Jenkins and Rodriguez, and especially if Buxton's hip is good. The roster is turning over and they're clearly developing more guys with speed in the minors. But I don't expect Shelty to run any more than Rocco did when he doesn't have good runners.

The goal should be to bring back Minter or sign someone of his quality or better to be the primary LHP option in the bullpen. I'm fine with it being Minter' he did well upon acquisition and should have at least one more quality season left in him. No guarantees, and his injury history is concerning, but you have to think that if the Twins, who had him most recently and should have had the opportunity to give him a going over and have recent medicals on him will know if he's capable of holding up for another season. The loss of velocity on the 4-seamer isn't great, but it's not like he doesn't have pitches that can get hitters out. The cutter is highly effective and that's not a pitch that needs to be thrown at 95mph to get outs, and he hasn't lost any velocity on that one over the years. 2 years $17M?

Last thing we need is to be signing another LH bat that can't be on the field vs LHP. I don't mind platooning (it's been part of the game since god was a corporal) but we already have too many LH bats that need protection. He's not a good defender, can't hit LHP, why do we want to add that? Just say no to Lowe.