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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. Johan Belongs. Guess we'll have to run another one of those campaigns to get him in, because he deserves it. The reason Johan Santana isn't in the HoF has a lot to do with him getting caught in the transition away from wins as being an important stat for pitchers; 139 wins in 12 seasons doesn't look like much. The other aspect is HoF voters wrestling with what to do with the "comets" as Bill Simmons likes to call them, guys who are incredibly dominant over a shorter period that's cut short because of injury. Johan was out of baseball after his age 33 season and for decades starting pitchers were guys who pitched until they were into their late 30's, piled up huge win totals and no one cared if their last 5 years in the league weren't very impressive if they still ate up 180-200 innings and nailed down 10-15 wins per season. And they ding him for not winning a ring. If he had a signature WS moment, he'd be in the Hall. He's worthy, though. He didn't just have a dominant 3 year run, he had a stretch where he was top 5 in the Cy 5 years in a row! That's incredible. He should have won it in 2005, of course; Colon's win was ridiculous and would never happen today. I'm more impressed with guys who are great for a 7-10 year period than compilers who are good to very good for 15-20 years. Give me the guy who is in the conversation for the Cy 5 years in a row and if you exclude him from a conversation of who the best pitcher in baseball is for that 5 year run, then your list is simply invalid. And that's the reality: from 2003-2008 if you talked about the best pitcher in baseball, before, during, or after season and Johan's name doesn't come up then you don't know anything about baseball. He was truly, truly great.
  2. This post is depressing to me because I love Greinke and part of me just wants him with the Twins, and there's a lot of good evidence here that it would be a terrible idea. Sigh.
  3. Just out of curiosity...why is it Rocco that "needs to hear this", anyway? If you really think twins pitchers need to be left out longer, then you better direct this critique at Wes Johnson, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine too. pretty sure they're all on the same page right now in terms of pitcher usage. (and they're hardly Captain Hook on starters in comparison to the rest of MLB) Also, I never want Dusty Baker near my pitchers. Cubs fans would agree (old school Dusty let Kerry Wood chuck 120+ pitches 12 times in 2003. Mark Prior threw over 120 pitches in 5 out of 6 starts in Sept that year. neither pitcher was ever the same after 2003, Prior was out of the league in 2007 and after 3 injury filled seasons, Wood had to move to the bullpen to keep his arm from falling off).
  4. Well, obviously the Twins were also hoping for a bounceback from Jake Cave to fill in some of those LH ABs in the OF to prevent Kirilloff or Larnach from having to carry the burden before they were ready. Unfortunately, Cave struggled, got seriously injured, and never bounced back. Considering how effective he'd been pre-pandemic, it wasn't a crazy bet, but it was one that didn't work out. I think the Twins would have been happy to keep Eddie Rosario from another season, just not for $9M+, and once that decision happened Eddie was gone because pride gets in the way. He'd take less money (he had no choice) but wasn't going to take less from the Twins. Kirilloff was more effective in fewer games even with the injury and cost the league minimum, so it's hard to say the twins made a mistake: they didn't, no matter how fun Eddie Rosario is. He's having one of his patented hot streaks with Atlanta right now, which is great for them, but no team is going to bet on eddie staying hot like that for a full season. He's a good player and a useful one. but he's not a guy to commit to for 3+ years and for significant money. he's had two seasons with a bWAR over 2, and one was his rookie season. (to be fair he probably would have met that in 2020 if there had been enough games). He's likely to be worth 1-2 bWAR next year, containing a fantastic hot stretch and a couple of brutal cold ones at the plate, while adding very little else on the field (the baserunning is poor, the fielding is poor, and that stuff matters). He's unlikely to get a multi-year contract. he is who he is. He's made over $20M in MLB and been a starter for basically 6 seasons. Good for him. But it's a poor financial and baseball decision to pay him more than $5-6M at this point and he was never going to agree to stay with the twins at that number.
  5. i think he's worth bringing back at the arbitration price. he's good enough that you generally know what you're getting, a 1 year deal has minimal risk, he should have time to recover from the injury by spring training, and he'd have some value at the trade deadline if things tank for the twins again next year. He's a good pitcher and with him, Thielbar, and Moran they'd really have the left side of the bullpen well covered with guys who can destroy lefty batters but also be effective against righties. (I believe in Moran's change) With Rogers back, they could have a very good, very flexible, and very effective bullpen.
  6. My goodness, these were some moonshots. I can't decide which ones are more fun: the ones that clear the restaurant in CF or the ones that drop into the 3rd deck in LF, or just Sano going slightly oppo to deposit one in the bleachers in CF. Oh, my. you know, Justin morneau hit some long ones in his career so when he's amazed...
  7. Kirilloff is going to be excellent next season. He can flat-out hit and will fit in very nicely in the heart of the order. he should be the starting LF from Day 1 next year, backup at 1B and get a few days off at DH. here's hoping he plays 150 games next year, because if he does I see 20+ HRs and 30+ doubles with a very nice slash line. He's passable in the corners and can hold it down just fine until 1B opens up.
  8. I don't disagree, but the problem is the entire fanbase might have PTSD in relation to Colome...and if we do, does the team? But seriously, I'm not sure his style is right overall for the Twins 'pen. He's basically a cutter guy who's hard to square up on if he keeps it out of the heart of the plate, but struggled to do just that at times with the Twins. I'd prefer to get a RH arm who really brings some gas and strike outs to the party. (I'm not sure who that will be at this point, but there should be someone?) Twins will almost certainly run out a 8-man bullpen again, and I like 6 internal options right now: Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, Thielbar, Moran, and John Gant. (I think Gant is a better option for the bullpen. Others might prefer running Minaya back) I really do believe in Moran and his change-up. I'd look to find this year's Trevor May to fill one more spot in FA and look in-house for the last one, in part to keep the Twins from getting stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy. We got to a solid bullpen by the end of the year when we started churning arms until we found the combo that worked. Sign a bunch of veterans to $1M+ contracts and they'd better perform out the gate, because those guys probably don't get churned if/when they struggle. It's a tough world out there for relief pitchers because increasingly there's no "middle class" and more teams are seeing everyone that's not on the top end as being fungible...and they might not be wrong.
  9. Zack Greinke is interesting. Feels a bit like a boom/bust candidate? Is the drop-off this season due to him finally getting old, or is he going to have a bounceback season for someone and be a really nice starter again? He's been successful before without a huge K rate, but should we be more alarmed that in a season where everyone was striking out a million times his rate dropped sharply? Lot of veteran savvy and know-how for guys like Ober/Ryan and the rest of the young guys who are going to get some chances...but also might just be, you know...old. He does seem to know how to stay healthy. If something higher tier doesn't present itself he's someone I would study and evaluate really hard. but I'll admit to a bias: I've always liked him and I'm a huge fan, even if he's been with the damn cheatin' Astros the last 2 1/2 seasons.
  10. Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer". Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  11. If you only look at what he's done in Atlanta, sure. but he wasn't anywhere near Polanco based on his Cleveland stats. Alex Kirilloff accumulated as much bWAR as Eddie Rosario did while battling a debilitating wrist injury that eventually ended his season. Do you think Cleveland is happy with the signing? They traded him to dump salary. I wish Rosario nothing but success, but the Twins made the correct decision when they declined to give him $9M in arbitration. he wasn't going to take less with the twins (who almost certainly would have chosen to keep him over Cave, if he'd been willing to stay for $5-6M), so he took the money in Cleveland, and underwhelmed. In a short stint in Atlanta he's been revived, which is great for him and them. He'll play in the majors next year, but he's not going to get a 3 year deal and he's not going to get an AAV of $8M+, because teams are going to look at his whole year and not just 100 ABs with Atlanta.
  12. I like celestino's chances as a 4th OF who plays a fair amount; the D looks to be quality and I think he'd be able to manage LF just fine in addition to being good in CF and RF. Agree with roger above that as constructed right now, he's an excellent fit as a potential 4th OF because of Kepler/Kirilloff & even Larnach as OF options for this team. (at this point, I don't know that i need to see Max kepler try and hit lefties much longer) All of this presumes that he won't be overwhelmed in his next shot at the majors, but the way he rebounded in AAA speaks very well of him and his chances. Some guys go into a tailspin after experiencing that level of failure, even if they know they're being thrown in long before they should be. celestino took the demotion down to AAA and finished the season very strong. he may never be a 20-30 HR guy, but if he's smacking 30+ doubles a year with 10+ HRs that's enough slugging to get it done if the OBP is also in the .350 range. I think he'll draw enough walks to be effective. The only problem with his being right-handed is with Austin Martin rising behind him, but that's an ok problem to have. I think celestino gets a good chance to be the 4th/5th OF next year out of spring training.
  13. Absolutely correct. Especially for guys in A-ball where even if they have an already top line breaking pitch the command will almost always need work. A-ball pitchers are are funny. It's easy to get super excited about a guy and just as easy to find 5 reasons why they're not going to make it. I feel like the jump to AA is a big delineator for pitchers: it's harder to simply overwhelm guys with stuff, the hitters have a more advanced approach and won't chase nearly as much, and the hitters have also been exposed to a lot more quality pitching and aren't getting surprised as easily. The age range tends to smooth out a bit too: few teenagers (if any) and more bunching around 23-25. (Wichita's average age was 24.7) If Varland kicks butt in AA, I'm going from intrigued and hopeful to really excited in a big hurry.
  14. Great season for Varland. Looking forward to seeing how he does next year at AA; it can be a big leap. If Varland thought there was a big difference between hitters in in high-A laying off pitches out of the zone, just wait until he sees more advanced guys in AA! It'll be interesting to see how his stuff plays and if he can continue to hunt up K's like he did in A-ball. He's definitely a candidate to get the quick promotion to AA: by age, performance, and development he looks ready.
  15. are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well) Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
  16. I'm a Trevor Story fan. I'd love to add him to this team at anything resembling a semi-reasonable price, especially if Buxton doesn't get extended/is traded. (I love Buxton and desperately want him on this team, but I recognize that might not go) He's a fine defensive SS who can swing the bat and I expect his home/road splits might normalize a bit once he gets clear of Coors. I think he's going to be worth at least 12-18 bWAR over the next 4 years and how many seasons of 3-4 bWAR have we compiled at SS in the last decade? (It's 1.) I'm in on Story. I think he'd be a nice fit, he's a bit of a "buy low" candidate right now, but even if this is who he is going forward...there's a lot of value there.
  17. I'm in on #1: I like Ryan a lot and while I think he's going to have some bumps along the way, I also think he will be a very good starter. The off-speed stuff looked better than advertised and the fastball plays. Do I think he's going to be contending for the Cy year-in and year-out? No, but could he be a dependable starter who gets a little all-star love in a good season and never really has a bad one? I think so. I have no idea how anyone defines "front-line starter" or "ace" or any of that any longer. I'm out on #2: Just not sure Jax has the stuff to be impactful at the MLB level. Maybe his fastball ticks up if he moves into a full-time relief role and plays up a bit more...but I wouldn't see him as anything more than a long man in the bullpen at this point, and that's not going to have a significant impact. I would love to be wrong? I'm in on #3, though I don't think it's going to be at 1B for at least another season. I'm all in on Kirilloff's hit tool if he can stay healthy. He's good great bat skills, makes great hard contact, and I think he understands the strike zone (it's just hard to lay off a pitch when you know you can still hit it). I see a lot of line drives in his future and I'm happy to see him start in one of the corners next season. I'm out on #4,,.for now. Not because I don't like Royce Lewis, not because I've already decided he's not a SS...just think that despite his talent it'll take him half a season at least to knock off the rust and get up to game speed. but I still like Royce.
  18. Wallner is probably the only real prospect here. The rest look like "show us something, kid' guys. Hopefully Wallner works on cutting down his Ks; if he can drop that down a bit while doing damage when he makes contact, he's got a chance. he does draw walks at least.
  19. Possible the COVID stuff with Simmons kept the Yankees from doing anything more than mentioning his name during a conversation? I could see them kicking around names to add D, and then after making a call saying, "wait a second, what if this schmuck gets some of our guys sick?" A COVID outbreak nearly torpedoed the Red Sox season.
  20. I think people have pretty well covered the Simmons issue, lol. (I'm in agreement: his defense was worth, his offense was too putrid to be allowed near a twins lineup again, etc) I'm a 100% no on signing Cruz, much as I loved him as a player here. Age is undefeated. Eventually it gets all of us, and as special as Cruz is, he's going to hit that wall too and I'd rather not be holding the bag when it does since he's already off the team (and we got spectacular value for him). We've got plenty of guys worth rotating through the DH spot, so I'd rather keep it open to ensure that someone like Arraez has a spot to hit in, Donaldson can take a break without losing us his bat, Kirilloff can take some reps at 1B without Sano being forced to take a seat, etc. Better chances of keeping some of these hitters healthy and productive, while still giving opportunities to young guys like Miranda too. Beyond that, he's going to command $10M if the NL adds the DH easily, and I'd rather spend that on pitching/SS. I loved the Boomstick. Great guy, great signing, great player...but this would sadly be a reunion that i think would end in tears rather than cheers.
  21. Will you come back an apologize when he doesn't sign a long-term deal with Toronto this off-season? Berrios wants to test free agency, and has made that clear. They didn't trade him because he wanted a market-rate deal; they traded him because the only way to lock him up long term was to offer something well above market rate, otherwise they were risking him going elsewhere for nothing. We have an excellent chance to compete in 2022 if we can add the right pitching moves and at least one of about 5 quality pitching prospects steps forward. The lineup is good enough to compete. The idea the franchise has "no belly to spend" is a canard: did you forget Josh Donaldson? Coming off an excellent season they spent significant money to take an very good lineup and try to make it a great one. But never let reality get in the way of a chance to call the Pohlads cheap or the front office incompetent...
  22. I don't think it's all that hard either, but it's more of a question than Astudillo at this point, or least it should be.
  23. I think Refsnyder is a harder decision than Astudillo at this point. La Tortuga may be a fun player and fan-favorite, but he's also not all that good. If the Twins think Refsnyder figured something out that unlocked him for the first half and the poor performance in the second half was all injury-related...he's got more value than Astudillo. (That said, I think he's still a cut with the option to sign a minor league deal as depth)
  24. I would have loved to have a real debate between a healthy Kirilloff and Ober for RoY. shame about that wrist injury and I really hope it doesn't chase him throughout his career, because he can really hit. but Ober is the easy choice and looks like he's got a nice future starting games for the twins.
  25. I'm not thrilled about this either because I'm not sure why this is the time to try and slip someone through waivers? But it sure sounds like the Twins don't think he's going to be pitching much if at all in 2022 either, and if that's the case...how much does this matter? the velocity is fantastic, but it hasn't translated to results very well for him and he's been injured/not playing for quite a while. But this may be an indicator for how some teams are going to play their fringe 40-man this off-season: they'll take flyers on guys with no track record, lengthy injury issues rather than carry a veteran at a higher price. If that's the case, the FA market might be very slow to get moving indeed, and there could be a lot of guys on the carousel. Could we be getting an early indicator that there's going to be a glut of veterans dropped from a team's 40-man who are: middle relievers, 4th-5th OF types, 1B/DH guys, and utility INF? Hmmm...
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