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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Santana fell apart after his rookie season but stuck around in baseball for 7 more seasons, including a very nice season as a utility guy in 2021 for Texas. Even if Brooks follows the Santana path, he'll be around for more than a couple of seasons. It's a weird comp anyways: Lee has steadily improved over 3 seasons in MLB, whereas Santana had a great rookie season and then it went to hell on him. Santana is more like James Outman than Brooks Lee. Who Lee is like is a much more interesting question.
  2. jmlease1
    Why would the Twins sell low on E-Rod? Because he's not very popular in the Twins Daily forums? it's not like they're on the verge of losing him.
  3. jmlease1
    Bad probably isn't the right word for it, but the gap between AAA and MLB is pretty big right now, which makes it challenging for some of these guys. Approaches that work in AAA don't always translate to MLB.
  4. jmlease1
    I think Tinney is too high, especially until he's passed the Lemon Test. Right now he doesn't have a position and it's unclear whether or not he can translate what looks like light tower power into results. Quentin Young was too high before, and he's still too high: there's incredible athletic talent there, but until he's able to start translating those tools into game production, he's not a top prospect to me. I'm not totally out on him, but he's borderline top 20 at best, and will need a LOT of time and development. Admittedly, I don't rank "boom or bust" prospects as highly as others. I think it's flip a coin on Lackey v Culpepper for #2 and it's not an insult to either.
  5. jmlease1
    Team desperately needed that one to stop the bleeding. Hopefully they can back it up on getaway day and steal a split. They're not dead yet, but would have been dangerously close if they'd dropped another. Like seeing the big game from Brooks. He hasn't had a bad month at the plate all season and has been hitting quite well for the past month. Be interesting to see how much more is in his bat; the home-road splits are weird and fluky (he was better at home than road last season), and he hasn't found his RH swing this year...bringing both of these up to neutral and suddenly he's looking like the serious hitter we've were hoping for when he was drafted.
  6. jmlease1
    with the MLB team back in free-fall, it's back to watching the minors, where at least there's always hope. Houston and Diaw continue to be interesting players to track. Happy to see them each crack a double. Neither player needs to become a big slugger, but if they're able to show they can do damage when pitchers make mistakes, show they're more complete hitters, it's what we want to see. I like their speed, I like their contact ability, they both are looking like they understand the strike zone...hoping for a strong second half from both of these guys. Really wish Culpepper was healthy. Miss seeing him in the boxes. I have no good way to evaluate Quentin Young at this point, but he seems like he has a long way to go. I've felt like he's been ranked too high for a while. It does look like he's a bit less of an error machine, but I still have trouble believing he has any realistic chance to stick at SS.
  7. jmlease1
    Did I say it was his job? But how he perceives his job is an impediment, because he has a great deal of sway over a substantial cadre of players, including ones on the player's exec committee and negotiating committees. In terms of getting a CBA that improves finance balance, the Pohlads aren't entirely the villains either. (They're villains because the owners are always the villains, but not necessarily on this aspect. I'm sure the Pohalds first choice to flatten the playing field by taking money from the players...but they're more likely to agree to a cap & floor arrangement that wouldn't net cost the player's anything than some of the player's represented by Scott Boras) None of these parties are on the fan's side. Not the player's union, not Scott Boras, and never the owners.
  8. jmlease1
    There's a case to be made for fans in smaller markets that Boras is a villain, because 1) his only concern is maximizing the dollar value for his clients, 2) he has a known preference for targeting the bigger markets for his players because of #1, 3) he uses his influence with his clients to try and influence how the CBA's are structured, which have arguably tilted towards the bigger markets and star players vs a more balanced structure. In a Scott Boras world, not only is there never a salary cap, but there's no luxury tax and no revenue sharing from it either. His preferences are always so that a team like the Mets or the Dodgers will set new records for FA signings. While I have no interest in protecting owner's pockets, and I always prefer to see more revenue going to players vs owners...I also would like to see a system in baseball where teams like the Twins are able to be more competitive in the FA market, be able to re-sign homegrown players to competitive contracts without nuking the rest of the roster, etc. Boras is not helpful to that goal, IMHO. He doesn't want the Twins signing Walker Jenkins to a market-rate contract; he wants Walker Jenkins' next contract to re-set the market.
  9. jmlease1
    While it's true that Boras prefers to take his clients to FA, it's not a guarantee. 1) we don't know what the next CBA will look like, and that will impact any decision; 2) the player still gets to make the final call; 3) players change agents; 4) the Twins have signed Boras clients before, and correctly aren't afraid of dealing with his agency; 5) in 6 years Boras will be 79. He's not immortal. But yes, there's little chance he signs any kind of extension right now: unless he blew his signing bonus (no evidence of that) he's already got money and despite some injury issues there's not much holding him back from much bigger paydays.
  10. jmlease1
    Twins are almost certainly going to trade a catcher at or before the deadline; if they don't arrest this losing streak, I think it will be Jeffers. If they do, and stay in the race for at least a WC, then Jackson will go out. Is that enough of an opening for Jenkins? I would say no. They would also need to send either Bell or Larnach out as well (or both); if it's just Bell, then Larnach slides in to more of a DH role. If it's Larnach, then Jenkins can slot in one of the corners (I think I might slide Keaschall to left and Jenkins in right, but it's more about having the PT). If it's both (which likely happens if the team continues to pull a 2025 and crap the bed before the deadline) then there's plenty of room and PT for Jenkins and Roden. But it's not happening until after the deadline unless the Twins start really dealing in advance. Which is ok; a couple of weeks won't matter for Jenkins. But there's simply no way this franchise trades control of an asset for 2 more weeks of a look at Jenkins.
  11. jmlease1
    Terrible time for Ryan to have one of the worst starts of his career. Offense has been wobbling during this losing streak too. Right now, Twins are doing the exact same swoon they did after last season's all-star break. They cannot afford to have a lengthy losing streak right now if they want to stay in contention and want ownership to be buyers rather than sellers. Let's see what Shelton and the players have. Been a lot of talk around here about how much "better" Shelton has been over Rocco, but right now this team is exactly 1 game better than they were last season. Same spot in the AL Central standings. Flirting with dropping another place. The real difference between 2025 and 2026 is the rest of the AL is substantially worse.
  12. jmlease1
    Wynegar was a fine catcher, who was a very good defender back there and was a solid enough hitter. Under no circumstances was he an elite hitter even for a catcher, though. As a hitter, he was nowhere near what we've seen from Jeffers this season, or Garver in 2019 or 2021. Good catcher, Wynegar. Not an elite hitter, which is what this article is about.
  13. jmlease1
    It's not good. This is why I was down on it every time someone started talking about how Festa "had the good kind of TOS". There is no good kind. It's the worst injury a pitcher can have right now. Can't count on him to be a player for the Twins again until he's actually pitching again. Drat. Good luck to him. Was hoping Abel might get back before the end of the season, maybe in a bullpen role to finish things out. But I still have high hopes for him and arthroscopic is much less scary. That said, any surgery sucks.
  14. jmlease1
    Harper had 5 1/2 seasons of being a good hitting catcher with the Twins, but still finished his career with an OPS+ of 103 and never had an all-star season, and it's not like he was passed over. Good player. Not an elite hitter. This is a joke, right? We're counting half a season with the effin' Yankees?
  15. jmlease1
    Amick is interesting, but he needs to extend his excellent July all the way through August, without having another June.
  16. jmlease1
    No mixed emotions from me: this was one of the best trades in Twins history. I liked it from the jump. I'm going to be hugely bummed if they trade Joe Ryan away, either at the deadline or in the off-season: I love him as a pitcher. He works quickly, he's got an interesting mix, he throws a little different, and he's also not afraid to show a little of himself out there on the field. Makes for a fun and exciting player to watch, and when he gets rolling, he really mows them down. The secondary pitches have really improved with him, but he still works off that fastball. It's what Ron Luciano used to call a "positive" fastball: everyone is positive they can hit it. And yet...
  17. jmlease1
    I find Khadim Diaw fascinating. He's probably not going to stick as a catcher, but the fact that he's been catching and playing CF in AA is wild to me. He's been doing fine so far at the plate; no real power yet, but I love seeing guys stay patient when called up. (his pic on B-Ref where he looks about 14 is also hilarious to me) I don't know where he's going to land or how good he really is, but I find him super interesting and I'm rooting for him. Mercedes is having a nice July so far; maybe it's a small sample, maybe he's just getting comfortable at High A? (He's got ugly home-away splits this year, which I presume will even out) I like his speed, I like his game, and I think it'll be interesting to see where he lands this season. Looking forward to seeing where the new draftees get assigned!
  18. jmlease1
    With the caveat that no one is ever truly untouchable (no matter who the player is, it's possible for another club to so wildly overpay that you go, "yeah...ok.") I think this list is pretty good. Marek Houston is probably more touchable than the others (and Lackey would be on there if eligible; I suppose he could be now that he's signed?). While I like Houston and I've been impressed with his improvement at the plate, if the Twins are convinced that Culpepper can be a legit SS (not Brooks Lee "he can play there" level) then Houston is...not expendable, just more tradeable, because there's still some concerns about his bat. I'm sure someone is nosing around Riley Quick, hoping to snipe him while the walks are high. I don't think the Twins would let him go for anything other than a huge overpay.
  19. jmlease1
    Looking forward to getting guys from the draft signed and assigned to different levels/teams. (though I expect at least some of the pitchers will get the rest of the season off from game exposure) Wichita bats had pretty good games. Where the prospects on that team end up by the end of the season is one of the most interesting questions in the system. Houston needs to keep hitting, Winokur needs to find consistency (and a position), Amick & DeBarge need to find consistent grooves...but there's a lot of interesting stuff going on now in AA.
  20. jmlease1
    A very nice win to kick things off post all-star break. They needed to not come out flat, and they got it done. Ober was solid with a very good change up. Things wobbled a bit in the 6th, but they managed to settle it down and close the door. Brooks Lee looked very good at 3B with a couple of fine defensive plays. If they get Kreidler installed at SS more regularly or Culpepper comes up soon, the defense should start looking pretty good. I'm pretty pleased with what we're seeing from Lewis at 1B too. Just keep winning series.
  21. jmlease1
    I think it's fair to cite Keaschall as a disappointment: the defense didn't improve at 2B and he was struggling there while also not getting it done at the plate. I'm not out on him by any means, and his recent work in the OF while also improving his results at the plate are encouraging, but expectations were fairly high on him going into the season, and he has underperformed so far. I was surprised by that. I was surprised Larnach has been this good; I was opposed to keeping him. But he's been better than expected with the bat, and the defense has been acceptable. I think they've made the wrong choice in keeping him in LF vs RF; his arm plays better in RF and his range is less of an issue there, but that's on the Twins not him. They've also protected him against LHP, which has made a real difference. Clemens has definitely been a surprise. I didn't hate keeping him, but I didn't think he made sense to look at as a starter. As a floor-raising 26th man...fine? He's been far better than that, and his defensive flexibility (a real calling card) has been very useful. But I didn't expect this much hitting from him. It's not just one hot month for him carrying his overall stats, he's been much more consistent this year. He's still not good against LHP, but he's also not just an automatic out this season either, which is also a surprise. I wasn't that surprised about Bradley. I really thought he was going to be a guy who stepped up this year, and it's nice to be right about something. Morris has been a bit of a surprise; simply didn't know whether or not he'd take to the bullpen and be able to step into more higher leverage roles, especially not this quickly. But so far he's done well.
  22. jmlease1
    It is a complicated scenario, made more so by the varying injuries to top position player prospects in AAA. It would be easier to trade someone like Larnach if Roden wasn't coming off injury E-Rod out for a long period and not back any time soon (again), etc. There's a knot of OF prospects (and/or DHs) in AAA but it's not like the guys who are on the 40-man are all healthy and demanding promotion where if one wobbles there's another one for sure ready to take their spot. Larnach is sort of the "sure thing". Bell is maybe easier to move; he's a streaky player who has been up and down this year and whom you really don't want anywhere other than DH, and he's also got little history/attachment to the franchise. But as a switch hitter with pretty even splits over his career (including this season) he's easy to write in every day. The other factor is messaging to the fans. Could this team actually manage to sell high on a player like Bell or Larnach, open up roster spots for younger players with more of a future, and convince the fans that they're not just dumping salary and selling off the season (again)? How much of a buy would they need to make to get that message through, and could they do it with relievers? I do think they are concerned about what message they are sending if they're still in contention for a playoff spot...and they should be. Baseball playoff are still a much bigger crapshoot than say, the NBA. A team gets hot for a week and suddenly the best team in the league is going home and wondering what happened. Going to be an interesting next couple of weeks, if the team keeps winning series. If they drop 8 of the next 10 and fall apart coming out the all-star break (like last season), the decision-making definitely gets easier. Not necessarily better, but at least easier.
  23. jmlease1
    I tend to rate production over projection with prospects, but you can't ignore the tools Lackey brings to the table or discount the college production he's brought to the table just because it's college. #9 is absurdly low for the 3rd overall pick in the draft and a player guaranteed to be a consensus top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Considering all of E-Rod's injury challenges, I would have trouble ranking Lackey lower than 3rd on the Twins list. I'd probably drop him in at #2 right now, but there's a case for #1. I still think it's Jenkins, who has risen very fast through the minor leagues, hit every mark along the way, and is very close to graduating to MLB with all those tools intact. But not outrageous at all for someone to pick Lackey. (I'd argue a little bit on putting Culpepper ahead of him, but K-Pep has done everything asked of him and if he were healthy he'd probably be starting at SS for the MLB club, so it's hardly crazy to pick him to stay at #2) It's a fun question and a good problem to have: which of our elite prospects should be ranked highest! :P
  24. jmlease1
    I would like them to stop playing him at SS. Seems like a waste, since I have a lot of trouble seeing him ever getting any time there if/when he makes it to MLB. 3B or CF are both real options though and would be an excellent result for the Twins, so why not let him focus there? (he obviously has the physical tools to succeed at a corner OF spot or 1B, but I feel pretty confident that he can learn 1B later if that's where they want to shift him.) Get him off SS for good, keep him focused on being a hitter and developing consistency. Hopefully he can translate all those wonderful tool into production. AA seems like a reasonable spot for him...just not playing SS.
  25. jmlease1
    Very happy to see Houston with a couple of xbhs, including a Big Fly. He's doing very well so far in AA, and so far disproving my concerns about him as a hitter. I am rooting for him to make me look very very stupid. :P Not interested in rushing him to AAA; let's let him show out a little more in Wichita and try and remember that this is his first full professional season. Pushing up to AA in your first full pro season at 22 (and it's not like he's turning 23 in August either; he turned 22 in April) is just fine for now. The glove is good enough for MLB right now, which is great news, and if he's starting next season in AAA after a successful season where he showed he could hit at High-A and AA would be terrific news. I like seeing the xbhs because it suggests he can be more than just a slap-hitting, defense-only player. We don't need him to turn into a slugger, just continue being a guy with good speed, control of the strike zone, gap power, and the ability to punish a mistake. With his glove, that's a player with a very nice future. My fear was that Houston was going to quickly look more like Noah Miller, whose glove everyone loved...but dude simply wasn't hitting. Miller is now 23 and while he's made it to AAA, this is the first season he's ever had an OPS over .700, while while superficially Miller's .767 OPS looks pretty good, his team's collective OPS is .825. The PCL as a whole is hitting .796. Miller is going to make it to MLB because his glove is quite good, but he's going to be in a utility role that will gets bounced up and down until his options run out, because his bat likely won't play up enough for him to start, even with that fine glove. If Houston stays on this path as a hitter, he'll be a potential starter. He's not there yet, but the path and production so far has been good. It's encouraging to see him do well upon promotion this time, rather than struggle. The next test is maintaining it, and not falling off at the end of the season after getting ground down by the length of a pro season. Looking forward to see if he can pass those marks.
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