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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Houston is having a nice week; starting to look like he's pulling out of that slump he had when he hit the wall in August. Hopefully he finishes the season strong. Lot to like there and his overall numbers are excellent. It's getting easier to envision an infield with Culpepper at 2B or 3B and Houston at SS. I like having Houston at the same level as Winokur; it should keep Winokur from playing SS, lol. But I'm pretty pleased with what we've seen from Winokur this season: there's real improvement at the plate and the improvement we saw in Cedar Rapids seems to have carried over to Wichita. He still got some things to work on, but it's getting easier to project him at CF (my preference, i think) or 3B (not unreasonable either) as being someone who could be plus player on both sides, offense and defense.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm happy to ignore them. I want as many chances at the playoffs as possible, and we still have a shot at it this season. Throwing that away for theoretical value would have been a waste. I disagree with one thing in this piece: that none of the acquisitions were "flashy". I think Hoffman was a flashy one, a pitcher that I suspect a lot of teams were interested in. He's a former closer with high level postseason experience and elite stuff. The only way he's not a flashy acquisition is if you don't consider any reliever a flashy acquisition, IMHO. So far the deadline deals have worked out pretty well. They addressed the biggest needs and filled the biggest holes. Hopefully the offense can hold up its end, we get Ryan back healthy, and catch a few breaks.
  3. jmlease1
    The article is about Lewis since returning from his minor league re-set. I don't think anyone is ignoring Lewis' early season struggles, but despite a disastrous start to the season Lewis is now sitting at an OPS+ of 104 and a bWAR of 1.5. He's gone from being a player that you had to wonder if it was time to move on from to being an important part of the puzzle for a team battling for the postseason. Clemens is a willing 1B, but not necessarily a good one defensively. His positional flexibility makes him valuable, and makes him worth having on the roster even when he's having a cold streak (which he has). That's not a dis, that's recognition of reality. Lewis is 3 years younger with a higher ceiling. Most of his struggles are related to injury, so if he's found a position that he can play well and stay healthy at, that's also a success. Seems like you blame Lewis for getting hurt, which is weird.
  4. jmlease1
    and you probably would have called Fragoza a bust at the start of the season (if you'd been aware of him enough to care) because he "repeated a level for the 3rd straight season", since he started this year back in rookie ball. Fragoza has had 3 great months. That's awesome and good news for the franchise, but there's also a reason why people are writing things on this site saying "let's calm down on Fragoza a little". Too soon to be all-in on Fragoza, despite this great run of hitting. Too soon to cut bait on Young, despite his many many many errors and K's.
  5. jmlease1
    I've been very pleased with the way Royce has played at 1B. And it does seem like he'll do even better defensively with more reps and familiarity with the decisions at the position. And if he's hitting like this as well, then the Twins might have finally found their 1B. I think one of the most encouraging signs was how Royce's stutter in July didn't turn into a tailspin. After raking immediately upon his return in June, he definitely slowed in July...but has been on fire again in August. And it doesn't feel like he's taking a bad PA with him into the field. It's been an impressive turnaround for Royce, and it's great to see him able to let his ability show out. He's on track to have his healthiest season as a pro, and one of his most productive. He's gone from being a "he needs a change of scenery" candidate to a solid piece of the lineup and one you'd presume would be considered a core piece for next season. His RH bat is going to be really important to the Twins having a shot at the postseason this year, and I'm here for it.
  6. jmlease1
    "3rd straight season"? let not pretend the cup of coffee he got last year after being drafted counts as anything more than a cameo. 5 games and 22 PA's is not now, nor has it ever been "a season". he might end up back at Ft. Myers, but he's still going to be a year younger than the average age down there. If you start declaring kids like this to be busts after 1 season at 19 you might as well never draft another HS player. And I say this as someone who isn't a big fan of Quentin Young.
  7. jmlease1
    Lackey's doing fine, i think. Be nice to see him rack up a few more hits, just to keep people from getting overheated about the low (for now) BA, but he clearly knows the strike zone. I'm also not worrying about a guy not showing much power in his first days in the FSL. Considering how much teams are running on him and how bad A-ball pitchers are at holding runners on, I'd say he's doing a pretty good job controlling the running game. Tinney has some work to do: the low contact rates are going to be concerning, even with massive power. He's never going to be the catcher that Lackey is (people have been predicting a move from out of there since before he was drafted) and his path up the ranks is clearly through his bat. But he can't be sub-Mendoza Line for that power to play up. Against A-ball guys he'll be able to get lots of cheap walks by knowing the strike zone and a willingness to be selective...but he'll need to K less and hit more. I'd say a B so far on Lackey (he's not destroying Ft. Myers by any means but hardly looking lost either), more of a C/C+ on Tinney...who is much more of a boom/bust candidate anyways.
  8. jmlease1
    This is silly, unless you're trying to just preemptively declare Young a bust. But if you want to write off every toolsy, high-ceiling, low floor prospect the Twins draft at age 19 because Cavaco was a bust...I guess you can? But for someone to actually be following Cavaco's development path, then they need to miss their first full professional year and not actually play because of a global pandemic. Fortunately, Young is not having to face that. Cavaco probably still busts anyways, but missing an entire season of development not because of injury or anything but because they simply didn't have minor league ball and there was nothing he could do about it certainly put a barrier up for Cavaco. It's a bummer he couldn't clear that, but he's ain't the first teenager to not be able to hit as a pro and he won't be the last. (Cavaco also had basically one healthy season as a pro, which is almost certainly another reason why he didn't ever put it together) Young has real power potential and also has to date a better OPS than Cavaco achieved in a full (or mostly full season) at any level. He's also far from the first guy to struggle defensively finding a position at 19 and botch up a ton of errors. I wouldn't put him high on my prospect rankings; I tend to be skeptical of these kinds of toolsy high school prospects until they show more in the minors...but functionally calling him a bust in his first full pro season is kind of ridiculous.
  9. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Just when you think this team might be cooked, they rattle off 2 straight vs a top team. This isn't the best Twins squad we've seen in the past decade or anything, but they do battle. Nice bounceback by Morris too; he was one of the guys who couldn't get it done against Philly, so good to see him looking strong vs Atl. I think we've found something in him as a bullpen piece. Go get the sweep!
  10. jmlease1
    Congrats to Fragoza! He did a heck of a job nuking the FSL and it's always good to see a guy really hit in Ft. Myers. Wonder what his eventual position will be? He's played 3B, 1B, RF, LF, even some CF...be great if 3B is a legit position for him too?
  11. jmlease1
    Larnach's problem for the Twins is that if he's not really mashing RHP, his value is...low. If he was better defensively, if he could hold up better against LHP, if he added more on the bases then it's easy to offer him arbitration again and find a spot for him. The more expensive you are, the more things you have to offer, or produce at higher levels consistently at the things you do best. Larnach is having a career year at the plate, and he is hitting RHP well, and well enough to be the strong-side of a platoon. But he's helpless against LHP, slow, mediocre to poor defensively, etc. (props to him for not hitting into a million DP's this season so far though). Considering the younger, cheaper, higher upside options the twins will have in 2027, it'll be tough to run him back. Ober's problems are entirely due to a loss in velocity that just doesn't seem to be coming back. He's found a way to survive but chucking junk, and the sweeper and changeup are good enough for him to get away with it, but while his likely price isn't terrible at all even for a back end of the rotation starter, without a fastball that he can throw for strikes without getting tee'd off on consistently...he's in a tough spot. Because the lack of velocity on that fastball hurts his change. Guys can sit changeup and still catch up to the fastball. They can sit fastball and still react to the change. But when he's going, and guys are chasing that sweeper and missing the change he can mow through lineups. Just not consistently any longer, it seems.
  12. jmlease1
    bigoted jackwagon sh!tstirrer says what?
  13. jmlease1
    Nice to see Bohorquez with another good outing; that's 3 straight for him. Maybe he's getting into a groove? The stuff is excellent, but whether or not he can find the plate consistently is the big issue. If he finishes strong people will be talking about him more next season and I suspect we'll see him in AA. Nice to see Houston with a couple good ones in a row as well; he's had a rough August at the plate and it was looking like he might have hit the wall (not unreasonable, really, in his first full professional season). If he's already pulling out of it that's a great sign for him. I think regardless he's had a very good season, but it would be excellent for him to finish strong. I would push Vallimont back up to AAA as well. He's still a long shot, but what's the point in having him face AA guys? He's settled back into the system, run him up to AAA and keep working him. You never know with these guys. He's got the stuff, and the fact that he's battled back after going to Indy ball says he's resilient and willing to work. Might not get there, but send him to AAA and see what he's got. Fun story. I expect little, but I'm rooting for him.
  14. jmlease1
    I'm not that surprised that Houston has hit the wall in his first full professional season. It's a little more surprising from Winokur, who has been through this grind already. But it's been a pretty rough August for Houston. Hopefully they can find a few days off for him and he can get his second (or third) wind. Not panicking; this happened to Culpepper too. Tait is doing pretty well. Still a huge upside for him and he's been hitting well for the last month. Be great if he finishes the season strong. He's got really ugly splits, so it'll be interesting to see if he learns to hit LHP or if he's a platoon bat going forward.
  15. jmlease1
    Lol, I don't think either was unfairly ended here, but I'm hardly surprised they both landed elsewhere. It was pretty funny the people around here who swore neither would work in baseball again...
  16. jmlease1
    He's not particularly good at any defensive position and is barely a league average hitter. He's literally gotten worse every year since becoming a regular. Cincy's cheap-ass ownership is going to pay him $6M in arbitration? I guess if we have a salary floor by then, maybe. It's great that Francona loves him, and I'm sure he's a good guy and all too. It doesn't mean he's a starting quality MLB player, or that because he's willing to run out and play a position that he's actually good at it. Cincy is a pretty bad team, despite some good starters and Steer is unlikely to help them improve much, unless you see a sudden renaissance at 29. His only defensive position is 1B and he doesn't hit enough to be an asset there.
  17. jmlease1
    The Varland trade was bad at the time, and is bad now, even if Rojas shows potential and is substantially younger and controllable/cheaper. It only really made sense if you were going for a more complete tear-down, in which case Falvey should have just traded Ryan as well. But even then it's looking poor: Roden looks like a Quad-A guy (even if he's mostly just the swap for France who wasn't sticking around) and Rojas has a lot of work before he gets to Varland's level. Hells bells, they even botched it with Rojas after they brought him over, forcing him up to AAA on scholarship as if to prove "no no no, trust us, this guy is great!" Now, the ranking for the Duran trade is too harsh. Abel was really looking like he could be a guy before going down with injury, and still has a very bright future as a rotation piece who could be a playoff caliber, front-line starter. Tait hasn't lit the world on fire, but the tools are impressive and he's very young. You have to show some patience there and downgrading the trade because he didn't immediately crush A-ball is short-sighted. This one could still pan out to the Twins advantage, and if Abel starts 25 games next season this trade grade changes drastically. The Stewart/Outman trade was fairly meaningless but ultimately bad...but not because the deal was all that terrible. Taking a flier on Outman was ok, and Stewart's health makes him too unreliable to ever count on in your bullpen. Has he pitched well this season? Sure, but he's hurt...again. The real failure on this was not cutting your losses on Outman after his awful 2025. Handing him a job this year, despite him being terrible, wasted a roster spot for far too long. The trade itself wasn't that horrible, really...but if it meant that the FO thought it had to keep trying to extract value from it into 2026 makes it a bad deal. I think the Castro deal is also treated a little unfairly: Castro was gone after the season, and flipping a rental (who was absolutely a rental for Chicago, especially after being terrible) for an asset that at least has some upside and could provide some depth in Gallagher is a solid deadline move for a team that was cooked. Sure, Gallagher still has control issues and may not make it. But Willi Castro, despite being a great dude, was never sticking around: we weren't going to pay him, nor should we have. This was a reasonable deal for pitching depth.
  18. jmlease1
    It definitely seemed to happen to Culpepper last season. There's a real adjustment that guys need to make to the rigors of the long pro season, and Houston might be hitting the wall. Hopefully he can get a few more days off and finish out strong. It shouldn't be a surprise and it's another reason why the people insisting he be promoted to AAA needed a cup of Calm Down Juice. Diaw had a very nice week and is having an excellent season. He's an intriguing prospect. Gonzalez and Young both had good hitting weeks as well; Young is definitely a guy who has tools that need polishing. He can make loud contact that makes you see why he was drafted where he was...and then have a week where he misses everything and you wonder if he'll ever get out of A-ball. We'll need to be patient with this guy. GG has been inconsistent this year; hopefully he can finish on a high note. He should be competing for a job in spring training next season if he can get back on track. I still like his RH bat?
  19. jmlease1
    Can't ask for much more than we've gotten from Kremer so far. Nice to see the trade deadline guys generally playing well and showing why they were acquired. Pretty good offensive showing. Could have had even more runs early, but nice to exit the LH starter early by clogging up the bases with runners. Would have liked to see Adams pitch better with such a big lead and Rogers could have been better as well, but these guys are probably now in the bottom 3 of the bullpen which is a much better position to be in. (Baltimore can't be happy with Garcia or Wolfram last night; the former faced 4 guys and retired none of them, and Wolfram immediately surrendered a 3-run dinger. ouch.) Interesting to see former Twins prospect CES get in a game; he was the prospect I thought we might really regret losing, but so far he really hasn't done much (injuries have been a problem too). Mahle might have busted out for us because of injury, but the "big prospect haul" we gave up was more suspects than prospects (Hajjar out of baseball, CES got sold for cash, and after a nice rookie season Steer has turned into a utility player who probably won't be offered arbitration...)
  20. jmlease1
    I doubt the Mets asked for Jenkins in any conversation for Minter, unless they were obviously joking, because they didn't want the Twins hanging up on them and saying "these people are disconnected with reality" to everyone else around the league too. There's aiming high and then there's being insulting. Literally no team does that trade, even Dombrowski, who never saw a prospect he wouldn't deal, would have laughed at that and called them stupid. The different between Neto and Minter as a trade chip is night and day. Come on. I wouldn't have sent out Jenkins in a package for Neto either. With Culpepper and Houston both looking so good, I'm unclear why the Twins were supposedly so in on Neto, but either way, Jenkins was never going to be the centerpiece for that kind of deal: it would have had to have been Culpepper or Houston as the prime piece and that's probably not enough from the Angel's perspective. Now, the Angels have been terrible in almost every aspect , so who knows?
  21. jmlease1
    Diaw is having a wonderful season. Really liking what we're seeing from his hit tool. I think there's a little more pop to unlock as he matures, but with his athleticism if he could stick at catcher or play CF? He's lining himself to be in AAA at the start of 2027. Gotta feel good about his trajectory right now.
  22. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Good to see the offense get it done against a good LHP. They really tried to stack up the RH bats and it paid off. Bell and Lewis were stinging the ball and we definitely needed it. Did it lead to a less than optimal defensive alignment? It did, but that's the way it goes. With Lee scrabbling at the plate there weren't exactly a lot of other choices. Could they have swapped in Larnach in OF to get Clemens back at 2B and Lewis at 1B? Sure, but would that have made that much difference? I did like how Clemens pushed a bunt, considering how cold he's been lately. He was bunting for a hit, with the secondary bonus of moving runners up and he's been rough against LHP. Culpepper did fine. A little rocky on D, but on a couple of the plays where he couldn't find it the likelihood of him actually getting the runner was pretty low. The double play he hit into looked like a rookie not waiting for his pitch after ripping a homer. But the homer looked great! There's going to be some bumps, but I think he'll be fine. Great to get that first hit out of the way. He's got the first game done and it should smooth out some nerves. (man, his family looked so damn happy out there! was nice.) Not a great outing from Zebby. Left too many pitches out over the plate, wasn't finishing guys off well enough...but he gutted through it without a lot of help from the D. Bullpen on the other hand stepped up. Made it a little nervous, but the results were great.
  23. jmlease1
    It's tough for him in two different measures. 1) he's not on the 40-man. Not a huge issue right now (there's room to maneuver there) but it is a thing. 2) he literally can't play anywhere other than 1B or DH, making him duplicative of Josh Bell from a position standpoint. That's tough when teams carry 13 pitchers. Now, could Sabato contribute more than Alex Jackson? I would argue yes. But his role would be start against the short side of a platoon, pinch hit, and maybe get a little more run to rest a guy like Bell if he's not hitting? Give Lewis another day off or Clemens if Lewis slides to 2B? It's not a huge role. But it's at least interesting. I dunno if Sabato will get a shot in MN, but someone will take a look at him now. And props to him for continuing to grind, make adjustments, improve, and give himself a chance, especially after everyone, and I mean everyone (myself included) calling him a bust. I respect the heck out of a guy who in the face of all that, with real adversity in the minors, fought through it trying to realize his potential. Baseball is damnably hard. I dunno if Sabato can really make it in MLB (they say the gap between AAA and MLB is as big as it's ever been) and I'm sure some people can't stand the idea of seeing him up with the Twins (either because he's a Falvey pick, or because he's a guy who swings big and K's a lot) but I think it would be a heck of a story if he got a look and he might have something to add. Rooting for the dude. prove me and everyone else who called you a bust wrong. Make us look like the dumbass keyboard klowns we are. :P
  24. jmlease1
    You would hope, but there have been people pushing Houston like crazy this season because he's had an excellent half year. Houston is a 2027 player (and I say that as someone who likes him) but you'll never convince some people. I'm excited to have Culpepper up. It's the right move, and he's got real skills and potential. Hopefully people won't immediately quit on him if he doesn't light world up his first week. That said, here's hoping he crushes it out the gate! Wouldn't that be fun?
  25. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins are that worried about trying to close a RoY award. It's the most random award around. If Culpepper hadn't gotten hurt, he probably would have been up even earlier. I think they've been looking at him as being with the team at midseason for some time and the injury almost certainly got in the way of that. YMMV on whether they kept him in AAA too long (I say yes, but I'm an idiot at a keyboard) after coming back, but this has been coming for a while IMHO.
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