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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins please stay healthyKaelen Culpepper see you in JuneEmmanuel Rodriguez slide less; if healthy has earned a call-up NOW.Connor Prielipp workload will need to be monitored, but there's not actually any real correlation with significant innings increases season over season.Marek Houston is answering all the questions about his bat. on track for AA at midseason at the latestEduardo Tait so young, so talented.Dasan Hill very talented, needs consistency.Riley Quick moving up fast. only concern is he's never really pitched much.Kendry Rojas might be close. still might be too wild?Gabriel Gonzalez learn 1B? he can hit.Charlee Soto get healthy. loads of talentHendry Mendez only thing holding him back is a logjam in AAAAndrew Morris a consistent job in the bullpen would not be badQuentin Young will his tools translate?Brandon Winokur see also, Young, Quentin. Ryan Gallagher showing poetntialCJ Culpepper if he stays healthy, he's too good for AAKhadim Diaw bat is warming up. what's his position?James Ellwanger big talent. injury sucks.Kyle DeBarge very concerned about his bat. awful start. Twins system has some depth to go with some high-end talent. need some decent health outcomes. Just being average on that would be a win.
  2. jmlease1
    I think he can become credible at 3B. I might respect his desire to keep playing SS and try and grow there, but it's not going to happen. But if it doesn't happen at 3B, a big target at 1B who has the nimbleness to show more range than we've seen in a while wouldn't be a bad thing if he's also unlocked that power potential. He's crazy young and it's going to be a while. The tools are for real, but I've always thought that ranking him #14 on the prospect list is overhyped. Talk to me when he shows he can translate those tools into production. But mostly, I think as fans we put him out of mind for a while; he could spend 2 seasons in Ft. Myers and still be well on track. He's got a lot of developmental work to do and he's still just a big kid.
  3. jmlease1
    He's 24, probably time to get him out of AA. Going to need to clean out some chaff at AAA, promote some guys to MLB in order to make room for guys moving up from AA at some point. Crazy that Wichita hit 10 homers in a single game. That's a LOT. DeBarge really needed one. Amick is going to be an interesting one; he's bounced back nicely from an injury-wrecked end of his first full pro season and a brutal AFL stint, but the K-rate and contact is going to be a concern, Rosario is so inconsistent that it's clearly what's holding him back, but that power is for real.
  4. jmlease1
    Mercedes is making the case for promotion right now. Good for him. I'd like to see him in Cedar Rapids before the end of May. Quick still did fine; you knew he wasn't going to be perfect forever. Looking forward to seeing where he's at in a month or so; I suspect we'll still be looking at another promotion for him this season, which would be an excellent result. Like seeing Mendez take some walks and get a hit in his AAA debut. I think he earned his promotion and it'll be fun to see how he progresses. Not a lot else positive among the hitters on the prospect list yesterday, unfortunately.
  5. jmlease1
    He has basically no chance at sliding into a rotation role, so relax. I don't have a problem with him starting in MLB as a (potentially) multi-inning reliever pitching in lower leverage situations and advancing him up the ladder or not depending on how he's performing. Have him pitch in relief and see what he can do. If his stuff is playing up and he shows he can be effective, they're going to try him out in different roles. But with Prielipp in the rotation for now and on a more restrictive pitch limit than some of the other starters, having another guy that should be ok throwing 2 innings available isn't a bad idea right now.
  6. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'd much rather he say something and it turns out to be nothing than him keep it to himself, play through it, and then it turns into something. Players can't be trusted to keep themselves safe; I'm pretty sure that Byron Buxton could lose a limb to a combine harvester and he'd still say he'd be able to play the next day if someone would just give him some duct tape. Hopefully this was a weird twinge or he just needed a skip in the rotation and he'll be feeling fine after throwing a bullpen or something.
  7. jmlease1
    This is exactly why I dismissed any idea of counting on Festa for 2026. As soon as he got the TOS diagnosis, you have to stop counting on him for anything. If and when he comes back, it's a bonus, not something you can plan for. Good luck to the Slim Reaper, hope he makes it back.
  8. jmlease1
    Blaming Royce Lewis's (and Jose Miranda's) struggles on Carlos Correa is one of the wilder statements I've ever seen at Twins Daily. Royce playing a little CF may have been a foolish decision, but the injury itself was one of the flukier flukes that ever fluked. And he came back from it in 2023, even finishing out the season on a high note with 4 homers in the playoffs. It's not "playing out of position" and it's not Carlos Correa. It's the accumulated damage of having a real injury issue every single year of his MLB career up until now (this season's was pretty minor) and blowing out a knee to miss 2021 as well. he's missed a ton of time, his physical superiority has diminished, and he doesn't have several seasons of consistent MLB experience to fall back on in making adjustments. It's taken him 5 seasons to reach 1000 ABs. That's the equivalent of about 2 full seasons, of which he's never played 1. Brooks Lee is only like 225 ABs behind him, despite 2 fewer seasons and some injuries of his own. It's the injuries. It's 100% the injuries. (Miranda fell apart because he got beaned. he was on a fine track in 2024 (when Carlos Correa was with the team), got beaned and the whole thing fell apart for him. He was a disaster last season, and clearly needed more time and distance, along with a fresh start; he does seem to have bounced back with SD...but I highly doubt that has anything to do with getting away from Carlos Correa, who was a big booster of his) It'll be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to send him down. They certainly have a reasonable option if Culpepper continues to progress well: bring up Culpepper, move Lee to 3B, use some combo of Gray/Kreidler to back up the left side. See if Royce can get it back together at AAA. He's only 27, so it wouldn't be shocking for him to get back on track. But it's been quite a while since he's been good at the plate.
  9. jmlease1
    Amazing night for Sabato. I'm not going to start thinking he's going to be a 1B solution in MLB for the Twins just yet, but good for him. Pretty remarkable work and good for Sabato for making people think about him as player, not giving up, and grinding his way to AAA. You never know with these things. Glad to see some guys getting deserved promotions; hope that means we might be done with the Outman Experiment and maybe Wallner will be heading to Saint Paul for a re-set. CJ Culpepper was also too good for AA if healthy, so I'll be interested to see how he does at AAA. Be nice to have another starting pitching prospect advancing in the much reviled "pipeline". Mercedes has felt like he should be a borderline Top 20 prospect at times. He's absolutely rolling right now at Ft. Myers...time for him to move up to Cedar Rapids? He's 21 now, and needs to start progressing up the ranks.
  10. jmlease1
    I was impressed with how Taj managed to settle down after a couple of high stress innings where he was struggling to locate in order to get through 2 effective innings. I think a year ago he would have had the meltdown game, walking 5 guys, throwing a couple of meatballs as "get over" pitches to try and buy a strike, and get hammered. That's good pitching. His stuff has never really been the question, and I liked how he fought through his troubles locating his pitches to manage the game. I'm not going to pretend the Nats are a murderer's row of hitters, but they have scored plenty of runs this season, so holding them down was nicely done. Wonderful start to the season for Taj, and he's been really important for the rotation. Keaschall is showing some signs that he might be working his way out of the hole. Love seeing a guy who has been struggling take a bunch of walks; that tells me he's got his head in the right place and trying to stay disciplined. Very pleased with Brooks Lee's night: he's been looking so much better at the plate the last month, and the doubles last night were a nice reward. If he can hit like this he'll be a valuable player, even if it's not at SS. (I think his defense will play just fine at 3B or 2B) Larnach is having a very nice season. I was totally out on him at the start of the season, but he's been absolutely doing the job mashing RHP. The roster problem of too many LH OF bats remains (Larnach can't hit LHP any better than Wallner did, Outman isn't going to help there either) but at least we're getting real production from Larnach, the kind of mashing of RHP you need a platoon-type bat to do. He's even been back to form in the OF, looking awkward but effective. And Buck's homer...oh, my!
  11. jmlease1
    I still don't have a lot of belief that Sabato can become a real MLB option (and I know there are people rooting for him to fail since he was a Falvey pick), but I admire how he's ground away and continued to fight for a career in pro baseball and earned his way up to AAA. But you never know with baseball. And if some of these guys figure it out late and even become a platoon option for a couple of years...that's a good thing and I'm rooting for them. Trevor Plouffe didn't become a useful MLB player until he was 26 (he was 8 years into his pro career before he finally made the Opening Day roster); he needed 2 attempts with a lot of struggles and a position change before he could stick. He had 2 ok seasons, 2 really good seasons and then he was basically done and kicked around for 3 more seasons in MLB before hanging it up. You need those guys coming up through the system too; it's not just star or bust.
  12. jmlease1
    Impressive that you've already written him off after he's barely played a full professional season. 23 is hardly old, even for AA. It sounds like you prejudged him before he ever took an AB. Was there anything he could have done to be acceptable to you, or are you just so mad that they picked him and not someone else that he can do no right?
  13. jmlease1
    Can I give you the old Tom Tango quiz? Who is the more impactful hitter (assume the same ballparks): Player A: .300/.370/.425 Player B: .250/.370/.425 No one is saying hitting for power means it's ok to not avoid outs. It's just that it's less meaningful how you avoid those outs. Long before the analytics revolution in baseball people were saying in Little League: "A walk's as good as a hit". Bringing it back around to Amick: if he's taking his walks and showing good pop in his bat, it'll fine if he's got a BA in the .250-270 range. But he has to take those walks and show a good understanding of the strike zone and do damage to balls in the zone.
  14. jmlease1
    I was really excited by Ellwanger, so it was a huge bummer to see him get hurt. Do we have real structural damage there or is it a sprain than can reasonably be expected to recover without surgery? I'd hate for him to lose a full development year (or 2 if it ends up being TJ) but I'd much rather know early than august. Quick deserves the pick, and he's having as good a debut as you could possibly hope for. He's pitched so little in college/pros that I'll be curious to see how much they let him go. But the stuff is for real. Culpepper needs to get moved up, if healthy.
  15. jmlease1
    Because hitting for power is important for creating runs. It just is. avoiding out + hitting for power = runs. It's a simple formula, but a proven one. Miguel Sano gets used as a poster child of what we supposedly don't want around here, but what we don't want with a Sano type is one who gets injured a bunch and goes into rapid decline. As a hitter, however, Sano was very impactful in his healthy seasons. Even with all his injuries and a massive and borderline tragic decline, he's got a career OPS+ of 115. Can you really look at his 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons and say this guy couldn't hit? (yes, the even-numbered seasons count too, but 1 of those was the idiotic "let's put him in RF!" experiment and the other down seasons are more about injury than lack of skill) If Billy Amick is Miguel Sano as a hitter I'd be thrilled! (he's not) Having a lower BA and a lot of K's may not be aesthetically appealing, and you probably don't want your lineup filled entirely with those dudes, but it's also not a death sentence and can in fact improve your roster. Beyond that, part of what keeps a team in good shape and winning is when you have lower level prospects come up and be solid contributors even if it's only for a few seasons. Be a quality starter for a few years, rather than have to spend precious free agent dollars on an aging veteran to fill in at 1B or 3B or DH. Amick might not get there? You'd like to see his contact rates get higher in AA and his power production be higher as well, but there's things to like about him and potential for him to realize.
  16. jmlease1
    He's at .242/.324/.473 as of 5 May, and that's after a bad week. I don't think anyone is rushing to send him up to AAA, but let's see where he is in a month or two. This is really only his second full pro season, so he's on a solid track and to me is showing potential. I think he's properly rated as a fringe top 20 prospect, and if he produces well this season and shows improvement in his approach, then he'll get an opportunity.
  17. jmlease1
    I think the Twins showed their interest in him by sending him to the AFL early and promoting him to AA despite not exactly having a great finish to his season in Cedar Rapids. Right now he's probably a borderline top 20 prospect, but there's potential if his bat stays live. Think they're handling him pretty well right now, splitting time at 3B and 1B. Be great if he can stick at 3B, but there's also a path for him to rise at 1B when the Twins need to find long-term solutions. We'll see where his bat is in another month, but he's off to a pretty good start to his year. Would like to see him make a little more contact, be a little more patient at the plate, but the power production has been good.
  18. jmlease1
    Have you actually watched a Twins game this year? Because this is an entry for the Preposterous Statement of the Year Tournament. The ranking here are correct. It'll be interesting to see if Abel is coming back soon (he's apparently throwing bullpens again) and where he would slide in. Ceiling is as high as anyone, but between prior track record and now an injury, is he ahead of Ober or not? I think he did enough to open the season to say yes, but it's intriguing. I hope better things happen for SWR. It's surprising to see him struggle this much, because it's not like he's some guy who had a fast start and then teams got a book on. He's been here for a while and has been productive. Of course, someone people have hated him from the jump because he was acquired for Berrios...
  19. jmlease1
    I understand that, but you have to make exceptions for certain players, because that's also part of building your fan base. Having those players that are "your guys" matters, especially when they're like Buxton who doesn't want to go anywhere. (I also think that you make a rebuild higher risk and likely longer when you empty out all of your quality veterans at the same time, but YMMV on that one) despite the current injury I would have preferred to be able to extend Ryan rather than look at him as a trade asset, but I understand the other side of it...and with the stripping of the bullpen assets for more starting pitching it's something that's also not as devastating as it would have been in other circumstances. This isn't 10 years ago when we were desperately signing veteran starters in their 30's and hoping they had one more season in them (or could bounce back after an injury, etc) not just to fill out a 5-man rotation, but hoping one of those guys might be a #3. The success of the rotation makes the current struggles of the bullpen quite frustrating...especially because it probably wasn't necessary.
  20. jmlease1
    The fact that Marek Houston made the honorable mentions makes me very happy. So far I've been entirely wrong about him as a hitter, all my concerns look stupid, and I'm thrilled about it. Hope he continues to have an excellent push in Cedar Rapids and forces a call-up to Wichita sooner rather than later.
  21. jmlease1
    If the only way for this team to somehow succeed is for them to always trade away their best players and never let a great player like Buxton be a 1-team player and a Twins legend, then what are we doing? I do not regret keeping Buxton, I'm glad he doesn't want to be traded, and I'm glad he's here to be a reason to watch Twins baseball. Hells bells, we're not even paying him that much. Considering how often prospects bust, we probably wouldn't have gotten enough value to make it worth it. Sucks to lose Ryan. Hope it's not serious. Love watching him pitch.
  22. jmlease1
    Hope the injury to jenkins is minor and he was removed more out of precautionary reasons over something more significant. This injury jinx to our top prospects makes me want someone to go encase Kaelen Culpepper in bubble wrap...
  23. jmlease1
    Duran was converted to relief when he was called up to MLB. He was still starting in the minors; 2021 was the last time he began a season in the minors and he started in 4 of his 5 outings. Couldn't stay healthy. Made the Twins out of spring training in 2022 as a reliever. He literally had 1 minor league appearance in "relief" and it was a piggy-back outing where he threw 4 1/3 and finished the game. That's not a minor league reliever.
  24. jmlease1
    Meh. Not excited about the idea of converting starters to relievers earlier in their careers before they've proven that they can't start. Yes, the bullpen this season is a mess and it's a self-inflicted wound, but it's still harder to find starters and quality ones are more valuable. Beyond that they get injured frequently and you always need reinforcements (as has been proven this season as well). Does anyone really believe that Raya would be thriving as a reliever if they'd made him one back in AA rather than continuing to try him in the rotation until he struggled at AAA? Would we be happier with Matthews or Rojas already in the bullpen, or would we be complaining about the shortage of starters if another guy goes down for a few weeks? The problem is they stripped down the bullpen to almost nothing at the deadline, and then did nothing of substance to rebuild it in the offseason. They spent their self-imposed budget limit more on the lineup and put little to no resources on the bullpen, despite it being a gaping hole. This was always the most likely scenario. But if they can ID a couple of guys as pieces this season (Klein, Morris, Matthews, Festa, Funderburk are contenders) and actually spend a little money for next season then they should be back to a functional bullpen. I'm glad to see Rojas looking impactful, because if he busts while Varland keeps being a high impact arm....
  25. jmlease1
    Congrats to John Klein on his debut. Glad to finally see him up here to see what he can do and have another guy in the bullpen who can throw 95+. I do believe that you can rebuild a bullpen on the cheap, using converted starters, guys you collect from the DFA line, etc...but you have to be willing to actually churn them, not keep sending them out there when they look rotten, or convince yourself that one or two decent outings in the middle of 4 bad ones is the true worth. I don't think the Twins really know how to churn the veterans with the young guys to figure out who can hack it with any kind of speed. The rotation at least looks to be in good hands, but it's already gotten old to see the game be competitive for 5-6 innings and know that the bullpen is more likely than not to cough it up. Prielipp may have given up a couple of big flies but he also limited the damage and did well to get through 5 effective innings. New career high for pitches: 91. He's doing ok. Glad to see him healthy. Lineup didn't do itself any favors; they've been at their best scoring runs when they're taking walks and they made it too easy on Cease.
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