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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think the fact that he's not on the 40-man is a small barrier to Fedko getting a shot, especially since he's not seen as being as much of a prospect. It's sort of the Sabato problem. In order to bring him up to MLB they'd have to kick someone off the 40-man, which exposes them to waivers. Now, YMMV on how significant an issue that should be, but it's probably keeping Fedko from easily getting a shot. And while I agree on Rodriguez, I'm sure they're going to want him to get some AAA games in again to show he's ok and swinging the bat well first; it would be unusual for someone to go from the IL in AAA to go directly to the active MLB roster... But it's getting late early for Wallner and Lewis IMHO. And I've backed them both; I really thought Wallner in particular would have a bounce back season, and it just hasn't happened. Maybe it's they figured him out, maybe the previous seasons were more of a mirage than the stats showed, maybe having to face all those LHP early in the season screwed him up...but whatever it is, he's a mess now and showing no signs of pulling out of it. I think it's more complicated with Lewis (and he can still be useful in ways that Wallner can't) but if he's not in the same boat quite yet then he's bought a ticket, put on the life vest, and is checking out the seating...
  2. jmlease1
    I believe I said that. Roden is injured, Rodriguez hasn't played in 2 weeks, Jenkins is on the IL, Gonzalez has struggled, Mendez just got promoted, so really the only option would be Fedko...who isn't on the 40-man. That's why we're still riding with Wallner for sure. Lewis is probably has more to do with managing the player and the psychology of it; it's easy for someone to sit at the keyboard and say "demote him! who cares what he thinks? Who care what any of the players think!" but Twins management has to actually live in the world. SWR would likely be in the bullpen if they hadn't already lost Abel and Bradley, or if Festa wasn't slow in his recovery, but with those guys unavailable we're already trying to fill a spot with Morris/Adams/Rojas piggybacking and praying Priellipp doesn't get hurt...even if Zebby gets called up SWR probably doesn't head to the bullpen until Bradley is back on the field. Oof.
  3. jmlease1
    Rough one for SWR. He simply has not looked like the same pitcher this season and he's not getting it done. Sure, Adams couldn't shut it down when they asked him to come in and kill the rally, but he didn't put those runners on. Way too many walks issued by the Twins pitchers, but SWR just looked bad. Again. Only reason he hasn't been banished to the bullpen is Abel and Bradley getting hurt. Buxton is still awesome and the best reason to watch this team. He's a monster. Ball is still finding Keaschall when we need him to make a play. It'd be easier to live with if he were hitting, but he's still not really doing that either. (he's having another bad week, after finally having a good one) Only thing saving Wallner from a demotion is the AAA injuries, but he looks as awful as Royce. Amazing how fast the 3-game winning streak flies out the window after a pretty ugly loss. Hopefully they can flush it and take the series.
  4. jmlease1
    Greene has been great...when healthy. Notably, he hasn't pitched in 2026. But he was seen as the favorite for 1-1. Gore who got picked at 3 has been good, but somehow traded twice already. McKay was seen as being a sure thing to hit and was going to do an Ohtani thing before Ohtani...and bombed so badly he's out of baseball. But no one could have predicted 2 ACL tears for Lewis, which is why the draft remains a crapshoot.
  5. jmlease1
    well, do you count all the time he spent on the IL as opportunity to figure it out? Because dude has missed epic amounts of time. I'm sure there's more than a few other guys who have gotten 2 seasons worth of time over 3 seasons to try and figure it out. What's disheartening is how much he's struggling and how lost he often looks up there. When you can't hit fastballs in MLB it gets really really hard, because almost everyone can throw the fastball. Rooting for him. But finding a way to send him down to AAA without a) messing up his confidence even more, and 2) turning him against the franchise might have to be on the table. They're trying some stuff for sure. It's also starting to sound like he's hearing footsteps and it's not helping him.
  6. jmlease1
    Hrbek had an OPS+ of 85 he first taste of MLB. Gaetti only got a cup of coffee, but looked rough (did fine, if not quite starting quality in '82, his first real season). Brunansky crushed it. Laudner of course was never a quality starter and often a poor backup, really. (a historically bad all-star, there only under the kindness of Tom Kelly, who frankly should have been ashamed of himself) Viola was bad in both of his first 2 tries at MLB; he actually gave up more earned runs than anyone in 1983. Bush? A marginal player I'm afraid. gagne? Did nothing in his 2 cups of coffee, then struggled to be more than a backup getting starting time for a couple of seasons, before blossoming into an excellent fielder. A mixed record in their starts, for sure. I think you could argue there was some real failure there.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm not sure he's ready to crack the top 20 list IMHO; he looks more like a relief arm that still needs work on his command & control. But it was still a good trade, since the Twins weren't going to re-sign Castro. 16 seems pretty high, but that may have to do with a bunch of guys being hurt? Regardless, the difference between 16 and 25 for most teams is often more a matter of preference. Do you like production or tools? Do you favor projection at A-ball or clarity in AA or AAA? I think it's good to have him in AAA figuring things out, but I'd probably look to move him to the 'pen sooner rather than later.
  8. jmlease1
    Very happy to see Mercedes get promoted; it seemed to be due. Hopefully he continues to hit in Cedar Rapids and start his ascension. Who knows, maybe this is the season that his big bucket of tools turns into production? Hope that it's just a blister or a hangnail or something on Quick. Would be very very sad if he's got something more significant because he was off to such a wonderful start. Congrats to Hendry Mendez and Ben Ross on having a good beginning to their time in AAA. Mendez isn't showing any power yet, but I feel like it's a good sign when a guy gets promoted and is still taking his walks, even when he's also rapping out singles. Sometimes guys get a little swing-happy on promotion. Ross is doing very very well so far too: he's forcing his way into the Twins plans, and I wouldn't mind one bit to see him show he can be the next utility guy on the roster. Really hoping more of these prospects in the upper minors can become roster options.
  9. jmlease1
    So how do you decide when they're ready? Are they only allowed to come up when they're never going to get sent back down? How do you know when that will occur? Part of how their time occurs is when you give them a roster spot. development isn't linear, and you're better off not burning off too many option years in AAA because you've philosophically decided that you don't trust rookies or something. When a team isn't good enough to compete, it's also a good time to test those young players and actually find out if they are ready by the only sure means: let them play. It's still only mid-May, so it's not like we've only got 20 games left in the season to give someone a tryout for next year. But end of May/Early June you have to start making some calls if you want to give promising players a real look and not just a cup of coffee. And sometimes guys play well, put a charge into a team, and they go on a run...
  10. jmlease1
    Ober was absolutely excellent. He's finding a way to be effective with an 89mph fastball, and it's because that changeup is so deadly and he's spotting his sweeper effectives outside the zone and getting guys to chase and mixing in a good slider. He's throwing all the junk in the world and it's working. Good for him! His fastball isn't great, but he can throw it for strikes when he needs it, and the reality is he's throwing a "positive" fastball: everyone is positive they can hit it. Spoiler alert: they can't. Perez was really good and his stuff was dominant early. That fastball had excellent movement with superior velocity. But the Twins battled, and pushed a couple of runs across. When the Twins are drawing walks, they are at their best. I also liked the aggression on the basepaths to try and manufacture some runs. 2:07 time of game. kind of nice to have one zipping through like that!
  11. jmlease1
    I expect the only way Sabato gets a chance in MLB this season is if they sell off some parts at the deadline or there's a wave of injuries at 1B. All credit to him for turning his career around and getting himself up to AAA in the first place when he looked like a real bust, but it's going to take something significant for the Twins to add him to the 40-man and give him a chance in MLB. He didn't exactly light it up in April. And it may be significant that he has utterly destroyed younger pitchers while being more like pretty good against older ones... He did have a damn hot week though!
  12. jmlease1
    I think it's more likely that Lee would move to 3B, if he gets slotted into a regular job. He's got enough arm for 3B, especially when he can set and throw, and has an accurate arm. I think he can play 2B, but he doesn't have a great quick first step, which I think impacts him more at 2B than at 3B. But YMMV. I also still have hope for Keaschall at 2B... Culpepper is doing fine so far, but his OPS is basically sitting at team average right now, so he's not blowing the doors off yet. He'll definitely get attacked more efficiently in MLB, so the chase rate is concerning; pitchers in MLB are good enough to make him prove that he can lay off that slider off the outside of the plate and there will be fewer cheap walks. But he's on a good path and keeps showing improvements to how he attacks at the plate, so I'd be surprised if we don't see him at some point in MLB this season, which feels like a win.
  13. jmlease1
    it also shows how fungible relievers are; Gomez was poor for Tampa, but might go on a run where he's more than adequate for us. The samples will be small even when you throw together a whole season. Of course, I don't see a lot of good reasons to dub Gomez a "closer" of any kind; he just looks like a guy that might reasonably pitch close & late or take over as the designated 9th inning guy. We need both so...
  14. jmlease1
    I think there was a fair idea that keep Kreidler made more sense: right-handed, more defensive flexibility (particularly in areas than need more defensive help, i.e. the infield) can bring as much as Outman at the plate and on the bases at this point. But you're not wrong: it's a marginal move unless you're also planning on significantly reducing playing time for someone like Lewis or Wallner who have been the guys struggling the most at the plate. And because they didn't plan on that role changing enough in the short term is part of why they haven't called up a real prospect (along with injuries in the minors), as you've noted. But it's still not much of an endorsement for Outman who is living into his name...
  15. jmlease1
    Ranking trades based solely on their impact for the Twins 2026 MLB roster is useless. It's still too soon to really evaluate most of these deals. Losing Varland sucks, but if Rojas can be a guy then it still might not be a bad deal overall, especially if Roden gets healthy. The Duran deal still looks like it might be very good: Abel looked great before getting hurt (so waving off his contributions to 2026 while praising Duran's is fairly dumb) and Tait might be the catcher of the future. You have to give up something to get something, and these deals weren't made solely with 2026 in mind, so evaluating them only through that lens is kind of absurd. And the Outman/Stewart deal is pretty meaningless too: Outman has been mostly useless, but Stewart is perpetually hurt. While I wouldn't have made that deal, it's not like you can count on Stewart when planning a bullpen. He's like a bonus if he throws. The Castro deal had zero impact on 2026, but it also had little impact on 2025 for the Twins, negative impact for the Cubs, and Gallagher might be something useful. How is it this low even with such a narrow lens? I guess, congrats on getting me to comment?
  16. jmlease1
    I'm looking forward to seeing where he is in a month or so. Just need to see some continued progress on the walk rates, because at the end of the day, he's only 20, and that's not bad at all for high A. I'll be perfectly happy if he spends most if not all of the season in Cedar Rapids but brings the walk rates down to something more manageable and positions himself to start 2026 in Wichita. Development isn't consistent between players and isn't always linear either. I'm not panicking about his command yet. But this is also why TINSTAAPP exists as an acronym too...you just never know. I always struggle with getting to eager about guys who are still in A-ball...even when they flash electric stuff like Hill. I mean, I was getting excited about Charlee Soto too.
  17. jmlease1
    I feel like if Ross shows he can keep hitting at AAA he's lining himself up to be the utility guy next season, since he can legit play SS and would be able to back up every spot in the infield. Which would be great: much rather have that guy on a rookie salary than spending $$ on a veteran that might not have that much left. Twins need to be able to graduate talent from their farm system in all kinds of roles...and management will need to trust them to play.
  18. jmlease1
    At some point Hill has to start cutting down on the walks. The stuff is there, he can hunt K's like nobody's business, but he needs to hand out fewer free passes. 16 BBs in 19 2/3 innings tells me he'll be at Cedar Rapids for a while. It's ok, he's 20. Good game for Culpepper. He's having a good season so far, which is nice to see in his first season at AAA. It's been a good season so far, not a great one; the team OPS is actually slightly higher than his so have to keep that nice OPS in context. But no real problems yet, which is great. I think they're not feeling pushed to call him up based on his performance yet; the pressure is coming more from the struggles Royce is having in MLB, now that Lee has started to hit.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm happy to get the win, but I was convinced the murderer's row of Adams, Banda, Garcia, and Gomez were going to kick it away. That's about where we're at with the bullpen right now where I feel much more confident in our ability for them to chew up 3 innings in the middle than hold a lead late. Timely hitting got it done, although I really would have liked to see Royce come through with the sac fly late after Clemens stole 3rd. No complaints about Martin and Lee continuing to rack up hits and it was nice to see a chunk of doubles to back it up. Cleveland had a pile of baserunners, but only 1 xbh and it cost them, even against the Twins wobbly bullpen. I mean, screw Cleveland. Nice to win a road series there for the first time in a gazillion seasons. But I'd kill for some health in the rotation and a reliable power arm in the bullpen.
  20. jmlease1
    Not wrong, but not exactly representative either. It's a much bigger issue to be where Royce is after a quarter of the season than it is after a dozen games, right? So we're not really comparing the same things. And if Keaschall gets there a month from now it means he's been on a full 6 week tear and it's a very good sign that he's made real adjustments, because nearly halfway through the season he won't be seriously disappointing at the plate any longer. But the real question is, are you dismissing Brooks Lee's progress because you think it's too early in the year and might still be too small a sample, or because you don't think Brooks Lee is good?
  21. jmlease1
    I think Lee can be a good player, a quality starter on a good team. He might not be able to pull off a true all-star season, but he showing this season that he can be a quality hitter. I think it's notable that he's improved as a hitter so far in every season he's been in MLB (admittedly, there was plenty to improve on), but he's a smart player who works on his game and can make adjustments to play to his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. I think it's fairly obvious to most that SS won't be his long-term position, but if he ends up riding out most of this season there until Culpepper is ready it's not the worst thing in the world. He's not good there; not enough range, not enough arm, but I don't think he's an embarrassment. I think 3B would be his best defensive position: he's got a pretty sure glove, makes accurate throws, and if he's got time to set himself he'll be able to make those throws across the diamond and not need the 1B to bail him out. Think he'll also do fairly well in tracking foul pops too. With Lewis struggling mightily, there's an opportunity to claim that job. A quality switch-hitter who can be good (potentially plus) at 3B and slot in anywhere in the bottom half of the lineup while providing some pop has a lot of value.
  22. jmlease1
    I'll take the blame. I've jinxed every team I root for for 35 years now. Now into my 4th consecutive decade of all hope getting wrecked, regardless of the franchise, for men's pro sports. (I'd stick to women's sports, but would probably start to ruin them for everyone else too) Sigh. Bradley was looking so good this season. Only one Game Score under 55 all season. Half his starts had a Game Score over 60. Of course he had to get injured. How could he not?
  23. jmlease1
    Twins even moved Sano off SS by 19. I guess I can live with it if they feel like they need a little more time on Young to make it an easier transition for him off the position. Managing the psyche of a young player and so forth. But he simply shouldn't leave the FSL still thinking he'll ever play SS as a pro. The Winokur decision is baffling to me as well. DeAndrade is a better SS than he is and the Twins have looked for reasons not to play him at SS it seems, yet keep running Winokur out there. It had looked like they were finally moving past it with Houston on the squad, but here we go again. He should be working at 3B, CF, or possibly 1B all positions he might actually play if his hit tool develops enough consistency to be a real guy. (personally I think it's CF with his speed, arm, and athletic tools, but YMMV) Most of the time I'm ok with leaving a guy at a position for as long as possible, but some of these guys just aren't going to stick at SS and everyone knows it. Unless they have some secret study that shows that repeated reps at SS in A-ball will improve their ability to play their eventual position by AAA, I think they can make some of these calls a little sooner.
  24. jmlease1
    Hopefully Zebby is finding a groove and getting back on track. He's still got plenty of talent and with SWR struggling so much, we may need him sooner rather than later. Can we just promote Mercedes already? Time to see what he does in Cedar Rapids. Have to be pleased with Amick so far. Would like to see more walks, fewer K's, but he's responded well and is showing some nice pop in the bat. He's taking to his first taste of AA pretty well, and after that awful showing in the AFL you had to wonder. To me it's a good sign that he was able to flush that and get back to work. Sick and tired of our top prospects getting hurt.
  25. jmlease1
    Royce was fine at 3B last season; notably our first basemen are giving no one any help this season, which is a significant change from last year. I'm not that worried about the defense, because it simply won't matter if he can't hit, and the OPS+ of 60 is far and away the bigger problem than his glove. The "send him to saint paul" idea is easy to spout off on at TwinsDaily, but it's more complicated IRL when you have to deal with actual people and not a statistical profile on bRef. (cue people screaming about "they're professionals, who cares about their feelings!" in 3...2...1...) You have to manage the psyche and personalities and the impact on the clubhouse and the player's career as well. From what we've seen so far, I doubt a demotion would go over well with Royce. At a certain point that won't matter as much, but it's still early in a season (I don't think this team is competitive with this bullpen, so I don't care about trying to "save the season") and demotion isn't the only tool in the bag. They're reducing his playing time, trying to work with him to make adjustments, and if that's not working and he can't start hitting fastballs again...he probably will go down. Hopefully someone like Culpepper is ready to come up and replace him. The fact that Brooks Lee is hitting well enough to be a producer at 3B (where his defense will play better) and Culpepper has been good so far in AAA (good, not great) should be putting some pressure on Lewis. That might end up making him worse, sadly. I wish him luck. He's a likable player and brought some great moments to the team. But if he keeps getting pushed around at the plate, he's in real trouble. It's not small samples any longer.
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