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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I assume it's still Rocco's fault...somehow. There is real potential for the rotation in 2027, and there's also real injury risk. It's nigh-impossible to make your rotation injury-proof; the big advantage the teams like the Mets & Dodgers have is when a pitcher goes down they can buy themselves out of jail in a season or less. When Pablo went out for the season, it's pretty hard for a team like the twins to just go drop $20M+ on the best FA pitcher available or to throw out a bunch of prospects to rent a guy from another team. Risk is simply part of the reality with starting pitching. What is likely the biggest problem for the Twins next season is having those depth spots if they lose 1-2 starters for more than a start or three. We went into 2026 thinking it was going to be Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Bradley, and SWR. But we also had Abel, Zebby, Prielipp, Rojas, and even Morris as options. (heck there were some people who thought Festa was going to be an option this year) So when Lopez couldn't get out of spring training, we had options. When SWR went sour, we had choices. When Abel went down...uh-oh. When Bradley went down... Lopez and Abel out for the season. Ryan missed significant time. SWR imploded. Ober has missed real time. Festa (unsurprisingly) never pitched. The depth got run over...and we don't have that same depth for 2027 in the minors. The ceiling is high on the 2027 rotation. Big injuries take the floor out from under the team. I like a rotation of Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, and Kremer quite a bit (assuming Ryan gets dealt; if not the rotation is even better). But where's the depth? Zebby's out of options, so he's not waiting in AAA to step in. Festa might get another option but also might never pitch again. Morris may have found a home in the bullpen. So now we're talking Rojas and not a lot else.
  2. jmlease1
    There's something to be said for a player being able to just make all of the plays they're expected to make at a position. At 3B, Brooks Lee is definitely on that path; at SS his lack of range simply had too many balls going past him that he couldn't get to, as explained quite well in this piece. It's also quite a good sign that Lee has improved significantly every season as a hitter, and it's not like this year's stats are inflated by an unsustainable and uncharacteristic BABIP or something like that. There are definitely still areas in which he could improve, and after this season's general success hitting fastballs I would expect he'll see a lot fewer of them next year, so that will be an important adjustment. If he can figure out his RH swing that's probably the area where we could see the most impact. Another positive: he's not put up these numbers by having one outstanding month and then 2 crappy ones. He's been fairly consistent all season, regardless of the position he's played or what's going on for him in the field. Take a few more walks, chase fewer of those off-speed pitches low and away, be less crappy against LHP, and continue to hone your game at 3B...that's a quality starter.
  3. jmlease1
    I tend to agree with the arguments that this is only a collapse in terms of the context of being in the playoff hunt because of the poor overall performance of the AL and now not really being in there any longer because the twins have continued to be the twins of 2026 while other teams have performed better. We kind of are who we thought we were. Now, we would have been better positioned if Falvey hadn't nuked the bullpen and not bothered to try and rebuild it before he was ushered out of the building, and Zoll didn't do much to shore things up when he took full command either until the deadline. Maybe that's because the Tom & Jeremy Show took over too late, maybe they were mostly ok with the Falvey path until we got well into the season...who knows? The Pablo injury hurt a lot. Lowered the ceiling and the floor in one shot, which is what happens when a lower payroll team loses one of its highest paid and best players. The other injuries to Buxton and Ryan and Jeffers, while significant are more within the "well, injuries are going to happen" range, rather than the catastrophic. Shelton has been fine as a manager, generally. We tend to overrate managers when the team has success, and overly blame them when the team does poorly. I'm not sure there's been as much actual change in performance or orientation from Rocco to Sheltie as the people who have consistently trashed Rocco over the past few years would like to believe. If the Twins are running more it's because they have more players with speed. The defense still isn't good; Shelton didn't really change anything there, and he's got blind spots like everyone else (like his mysterious attachment to playing Larnach in LF when his attributes almost certain make him a better fit in RF and keaschall's best traits make him a better fit in LF, and Austin Martin had already shown he could be a quality defender in LF and simply never had the arm for RF...) I think there was a belief that the Twins were going to play better and be more consistent in August after shoring up weaknesses in the roster, and instead they've continued to be inconsistent and frustrating, with flashes of potential and increased expectations.
  4. jmlease1
    Keaschall is definitely on a 2 month heater. Brutal start to the season. Strange power outage in June. But crushing it in July & August. Deserving winner. But Culpepper sure looks like he'll get a few of these hitter of the month" awards. Heck of a start to the MLB career.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm really rooting for this guy. He's battled so many injuries, and I respect his determination to keep trying to pursue the dream. (By all accounts he's incredibly smart and certainly would have other opportunities) My expectations are zero. Hopefully he still can get back his velocity and be able to get guys out. That would be awesome. I think he'll likely end up in the bullpen at this point, but regardless: him getting back on the mound is a win for him. Hopefully he's back in the system next season, healthy and with a real opportunity in the high minors to get himself to MLB. Good luck to him. He's always been talented.
  6. jmlease1
    Me too. I have no expectations for him at this point, but I'm rooting for the dude. He's been through so much and worked so hard to keep trying to fulfill that dream. So talented and his career has been wrecked by injury. I'll never forgive those idiots at Rice. If he pitches a few games at some level this season that would be great.
  7. jmlease1
    Tait is having an interesting season. He's been inconsistent at the plate, but you can see the talent. But here's how young he is: this season he's only had 25 PA's against pitchers younger than him. Lackey is likely to fly past him in the minors; there's no question that he's the more polished player and ready for more advanced work. But there's a lot to like about Tait. Rodriguez just needs to stay healthy. I don't know that he's going to get a chance in MLB this season (or much of a meaningful one, anyways) which is a bummer; if they had succeeded in moving Larnach there would be greater opportunity. Hopefully he can get some reps in at winter ball or something and come into spring training ready to battle for a roster spot. The idea of our 4 primary OF being Buxton, Jenkins, Keaschall, and Rodriguez in some combination is pretty tasty. I'm still baffled as to why Winokur keeps playing so much SS, but maybe Houston hitting the wall is part of that. Regardless, I'm pretty pleased with how Winokur is going this season. Nice to see him rip another homer, and his ceiling still seems pretty dang high to me. Congrats to Danny De Andrade on finally getting up to AA; it seemed like he was getting passed over by everyone and might as well buy a house in Cedar Rapids...
  8. jmlease1
    Well, they smashed the Motor City Kitties pretty thoroughly. Nice to see the offense pile it up. Jenkins may not have gotten any hits, but I do like the way he takes ABs. Culpepper and Keaschall are rolling at the plate; nice to see the guys who have a real future with the team playing well. Not a stellar defensive game, but better so see the other team be on the short end of that stick for once. Max Clark is pretty good, we're going to be dealing with him for a long time.
  9. jmlease1
    Congrats to Ben Ross, who has earned a chance to show what he can do. Maybe he's another guy who can beat up on minor league pitching and can't make the leap, but you never know and it's worth taking a look at him. His defensive flexibility is a nice feature, and he's a guy who can legit play all over the place, not just stand at a position and pretend he can cover it. Even if all he can do is punish the crap out of LHP he could end up being a useful platoon asset. I hope the Twins don't just let him rot on the bench and have him pinch run/defensive replacement late in games. Let him get some real ABs and see what happens. Be great if he shows enough to take Kreidler's job for next season.
  10. jmlease1
    I really don't know what to think about Rosario at this point. He swings hard, K's a lot, hits homers, plays poor defense, will swipe a bag if you don't hold him on, and might be a right-handed version of Matt Wallner? That's a useful player unless/until opposing pitchers find a clear weakness that they can exploit. He'll be despised around here because of the K's if he comes up, and he doesn't have Wallner's arm. But the Twins have needed RH thump to counter LHP... The gap between AAA and MLB is fairly significant, but there's an argument to be made that Rosario has been the best hitter for the Saints this season. (I'd still take Jenkins or Rodriguez, but Rosario has a higher OPS than either of them) Biggest argument against Rosario for that is he's only had 102 PA's in AAA, and that's just not a lot. He's been better in AAA than he was in AA so far this season. Again, is this just small sample size or is he figuring things out? I'm still a little skeptical. He kind of got passed over by Fedko (who has the advantage of being a quality OF) and while Fedko did nothing with the Twins...he didn't exactly get much opportunity either. But this is part of why I'd be pretty comfortable moving on from Larnach next season and playing "the kids" in the OF. Between Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, Fedko, and Rosario it's not like there aren't options especially with Keaschall needing to find a defensive home, and Martin maybe still being around too. Maybe Rosario is part of that mix? It'll be interesting to see if he gets added to the 40-man.
  11. jmlease1
    Bradley was really good, I thought. He really has been the ace of the staff and is having a career season. If he manages to tick that walk rate down a bit, he could be an all-star. I'm not enjoying seeing some of these position players trying to throw BP at the end of a blowout. 34 mph lobs are funny for one batter and then it's pretty tedious. But congrats to Walker Jenkins for parking one; they all count, no asterisks.
  12. jmlease1
    Twins should have plenty of options to support CF next season for sure. Jenkins is a legit CF, Rodriguez is as well. That should make it easier to ensure that Keaschall isn't stretched there and you have coverage for CF if/when Buxton goes down. It's a little sad to see so much negativity directed at Buxton. It's not like the dude is asking to get hurt, and if anything his willingness to play (which for some players would be called "gutty") through injury is being treated as a detriment. He's still as good a hitter as anyone on this team; even with his slump before going on the IL again he's got an OPS+ of 130. 130! Even with only 93 games he's got the highest bWAR on the roster. The lineup has 3 issues to address for 2027: How much are they willing to go with untested young players like Rodriguez to fill in holes like RF How much can they rely on Clemens at 2B (we've been pretty happy with him this season, but he's very streaky, hopeless against LHP, and even in a career year he's going to top out as an average to slightly above average regular) Is it worth rolling the dice on another try for Lewis at 1B (and maybe a little 2B)? The defense has shown signs of being good, but he's also another streaky hitter who has slowed down after his June blitz upon recall. Will he give the team enough or is that the spot to look to invest in? I think you have to go with youth in the OF in 2027, plus Buxton. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, and one of Roden/Gonzalez/Mendez certainly gives you enough coverage for the OF and DH. The really hard questions are about 1B and 2B. Clemens is a nice floor-setter, but the ceiling isn't high. But if you believe in Marek Houston, 2B is probably where you project Culpepper to go, unless you're convinced Lee is hitting his ceiling. (Notably, Lee has hit about as well as Clemens, and is a fine 3B and is 5 years younger. Lee has improved every season he's been in MLB, so presuming he's peaked already seems...overly pessimistic) 1B is one of the easier spots to fill in FA, but are we going to do that much better than Royce or just spend more money? Would going into next season with a full offseason position Royce well to be good out the gate? Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Culpepper should be quality offensive players. Lee, Clemens, and Lewis should at least be average. That's a pretty good lineup, even if Caratini and/or Jackson is bad, especially if they get real contributions from Rodriguez (or Roden/Gonzalez/Mendez)
  13. jmlease1
    He's having a good season, but he's still not much of a defender even for a corner OF and I think he would be difficult to hold on an MLB roster for a full season. If I were a bad team needing OF help I would probably take a swing at him, but he's still likely to pass through. It's just so hard to use a 26-man spot on a guy that might not be able to contribute, and Rosario is likely to struggle at the plate in his first taste of MLB. And I say that as someone who still likes him.
  14. jmlease1
    Chourio having a breakout season. Have to like the consistency in his June, July, & August stats. Really the only flaw is his right-handed swing needs work, but that's easier to focus on improving when he's raking from the other side of the plate I would think. Have to be happy with how he's adjusted at Cedar Rapids and he's had a very nice season.
  15. jmlease1
    That comparing a sports team owner to typical business CEO isn't likely very analogous. It's just not how most of these teams work and acting like it's otherwise is being done for other purposes. Yes, Steve Cohen is ultimately responsible for how the Mets are run...but Steve Cohen doesn't personally run the Mets on a day to day basis. Right? Maybe Tom Pohlad does...or will, or something else. But him being around a lot more and been much more publicly accessible doesn't mean he's personally acting to run the day to day business of the MN Twins
  16. jmlease1
    Quick question: who is the CEO of the NY Mets? Follow-up question: are all businesses structured exactly the same? 🙄
  17. jmlease1
    Ross certainly makes more sense than Jackson? At least he can legit slide around and cover from some of our LH hitters. But putting out there that he's got a .917 OPS for the season is deceptive: he's only at .845 in AAA and juiced his season stats a little by annihilating AA pitching for a few weeks. The .845 OPS is less impressive in context, when the Saints team OPS is sitting at .833. Even Alex Jackson had an .803 OPS in Saint Paul. Kreidler had an .889 OPS in Saint Paul this year. It's a bandbox and there's a lot of AAA pitching that is far below MLB standard.
  18. jmlease1
    I honestly think some of it just has to do with how few competitive innings he threw in college. He's got so little game experience that he's going to throw almost as many innings in his first professional season than his entire college career.
  19. jmlease1
    It's not that simple, though; this is an injury that you probably can't get fully healthy from during a season (he might need surgery to correct it, or it might be chronic in that it will come and go) and then it becomes about things like pain management and capacity which is much harder to measure and isn't going to be same every time. Hindsight is 20/20, but if Buck had come off the injured list and hit 4 homers in a week and then gone down, we'd be looking at it differently...and he's done that before. It's also hard to keep a player on the IL if they start saying they're healthy enough to play, that they're feeling good, and you don't have any medical indicators to show conclusively that they're wrong.
  20. jmlease1
    Nice start to High A for Lackey. I guess he is ready for it, lol. It will be very interesting to see how he finishes the season and where the twins choose to place him in 2027. Regardless, I suspect he will rise quickly and one way or another be in AAA sooner rather than later and have a real chance to be the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028. Wouldn't that be fun? Quick still has some things to work on, but the stuff is impressive. I think he's been doing pretty well this season, especially for someone who has so little game experience at the college or pro level. The 69 IP so far this year is a career high, so just getting him through a full pro season to build him up is good, but there's clearly a high ceiling here. He's got to bring the free passes down, and we'll need to watch how homer-happy he gets, but there's a lot to like about this guy.
  21. jmlease1
    Charlee Soto should not be this high. He's been injured for 2 years now, and you simply cannot be a top 10 prospect if you don't play. He may have a lightning bolt for an arm, but until he starts pitching again regularly (he's thrown 2 2/3 innings this year...in June) he simply needs to be put out of mind as a serious prospect. And I say that as someone who liked the pick, likes the player, and is rooting hard for him. But frankly he shouldn't even be on the list at this point, no matter what the theoretical potential is. Same will hold true with Ellwanger if he can't get back on the field in 2027. Otherwise? seems fine.
  22. jmlease1
    I don't think it'll be that hard next season for him to DH against most RHP and slot in a corner against LHP, but that's just me.
  23. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'm not sure why there's already this belief that Keaschall can't improve defensively, especially in the OF where his speed should play pretty well. Maybe his hands will never be good enough to get back to 2B, but he should be able to improve his route running, reads off the bat, etc. Interesting to see Lawton on this list; I didn't really recall him being all that terrible of a fielder, except when they tried to have him cover CF, which was stretching him too far. Ironic that both of his "all-star" seasons were years that he had pretty terrible defensive numbers.
  24. jmlease1
    I will say, I can understand what the A's see in Kade Morris. His change made the Twins hitter look silly for a bit, even if he couldn't sustain it. Guys were just swinging right over it. Does he have enough command to really make a go of it? Not yet, but he was at least interesting.
  25. jmlease1
    Impressive offensive showing and a good night from Zebby. Gomez blowing up is really the only black mark. Culpepper sure is showing why he was a top prospect, eh? Pretty nice start to his time in MLB and he's settled in pretty well on defense too. I expect pitchers will start adjusting to him soon, so we'll see how he responds to changes in approach and they try to attack him in different ways. Really the only "flaw" in his game right now is a little too much aggression; you'd like to see him grabbing a couple more walks, but it's hard to complain about his patience at the plate when he's hitting .340. But his RH bat is exactly what we need to help us keep from getting pushed around by some mediocre LHP. Zebby wasn't exactly facing a murderer's row out there, but he still did the job and mowed them down. Very nice to see him be efficient enough to get through 7, and not give up cheap homers in that bandbox. It'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season, but the Twins really needed that good start.
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