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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I really don't know what to think about Rosario at this point. He swings hard, K's a lot, hits homers, plays poor defense, will swipe a bag if you don't hold him on, and might be a right-handed version of Matt Wallner? That's a useful player unless/until opposing pitchers find a clear weakness that they can exploit. He'll be despised around here because of the K's if he comes up, and he doesn't have Wallner's arm. But the Twins have needed RH thump to counter LHP... The gap between AAA and MLB is fairly significant, but there's an argument to be made that Rosario has been the best hitter for the Saints this season. (I'd still take Jenkins or Rodriguez, but Rosario has a higher OPS than either of them) Biggest argument against Rosario for that is he's only had 102 PA's in AAA, and that's just not a lot. He's been better in AAA than he was in AA so far this season. Again, is this just small sample size or is he figuring things out? I'm still a little skeptical. He kind of got passed over by Fedko (who has the advantage of being a quality OF) and while Fedko did nothing with the Twins...he didn't exactly get much opportunity either. But this is part of why I'd be pretty comfortable moving on from Larnach next season and playing "the kids" in the OF. Between Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, Fedko, and Rosario it's not like there aren't options especially with Keaschall needing to find a defensive home, and Martin maybe still being around too. Maybe Rosario is part of that mix? It'll be interesting to see if he gets added to the 40-man.
  2. jmlease1
    Bradley was really good, I thought. He really has been the ace of the staff and is having a career season. If he manages to tick that walk rate down a bit, he could be an all-star. I'm not enjoying seeing some of these position players trying to throw BP at the end of a blowout. 34 mph lobs are funny for one batter and then it's pretty tedious. But congrats to Walker Jenkins for parking one; they all count, no asterisks.
  3. jmlease1
    Twins should have plenty of options to support CF next season for sure. Jenkins is a legit CF, Rodriguez is as well. That should make it easier to ensure that Keaschall isn't stretched there and you have coverage for CF if/when Buxton goes down. It's a little sad to see so much negativity directed at Buxton. It's not like the dude is asking to get hurt, and if anything his willingness to play (which for some players would be called "gutty") through injury is being treated as a detriment. He's still as good a hitter as anyone on this team; even with his slump before going on the IL again he's got an OPS+ of 130. 130! Even with only 93 games he's got the highest bWAR on the roster. The lineup has 3 issues to address for 2027: How much are they willing to go with untested young players like Rodriguez to fill in holes like RF How much can they rely on Clemens at 2B (we've been pretty happy with him this season, but he's very streaky, hopeless against LHP, and even in a career year he's going to top out as an average to slightly above average regular) Is it worth rolling the dice on another try for Lewis at 1B (and maybe a little 2B)? The defense has shown signs of being good, but he's also another streaky hitter who has slowed down after his June blitz upon recall. Will he give the team enough or is that the spot to look to invest in? I think you have to go with youth in the OF in 2027, plus Buxton. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, and one of Roden/Gonzalez/Mendez certainly gives you enough coverage for the OF and DH. The really hard questions are about 1B and 2B. Clemens is a nice floor-setter, but the ceiling isn't high. But if you believe in Marek Houston, 2B is probably where you project Culpepper to go, unless you're convinced Lee is hitting his ceiling. (Notably, Lee has hit about as well as Clemens, and is a fine 3B and is 5 years younger. Lee has improved every season he's been in MLB, so presuming he's peaked already seems...overly pessimistic) 1B is one of the easier spots to fill in FA, but are we going to do that much better than Royce or just spend more money? Would going into next season with a full offseason position Royce well to be good out the gate? Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Culpepper should be quality offensive players. Lee, Clemens, and Lewis should at least be average. That's a pretty good lineup, even if Caratini and/or Jackson is bad, especially if they get real contributions from Rodriguez (or Roden/Gonzalez/Mendez)
  4. jmlease1
    He's having a good season, but he's still not much of a defender even for a corner OF and I think he would be difficult to hold on an MLB roster for a full season. If I were a bad team needing OF help I would probably take a swing at him, but he's still likely to pass through. It's just so hard to use a 26-man spot on a guy that might not be able to contribute, and Rosario is likely to struggle at the plate in his first taste of MLB. And I say that as someone who still likes him.
  5. jmlease1
    Chourio having a breakout season. Have to like the consistency in his June, July, & August stats. Really the only flaw is his right-handed swing needs work, but that's easier to focus on improving when he's raking from the other side of the plate I would think. Have to be happy with how he's adjusted at Cedar Rapids and he's had a very nice season.
  6. jmlease1
    That comparing a sports team owner to typical business CEO isn't likely very analogous. It's just not how most of these teams work and acting like it's otherwise is being done for other purposes. Yes, Steve Cohen is ultimately responsible for how the Mets are run...but Steve Cohen doesn't personally run the Mets on a day to day basis. Right? Maybe Tom Pohlad does...or will, or something else. But him being around a lot more and been much more publicly accessible doesn't mean he's personally acting to run the day to day business of the MN Twins
  7. jmlease1
    Quick question: who is the CEO of the NY Mets? Follow-up question: are all businesses structured exactly the same? 🙄
  8. jmlease1
    Ross certainly makes more sense than Jackson? At least he can legit slide around and cover from some of our LH hitters. But putting out there that he's got a .917 OPS for the season is deceptive: he's only at .845 in AAA and juiced his season stats a little by annihilating AA pitching for a few weeks. The .845 OPS is less impressive in context, when the Saints team OPS is sitting at .833. Even Alex Jackson had an .803 OPS in Saint Paul. Kreidler had an .889 OPS in Saint Paul this year. It's a bandbox and there's a lot of AAA pitching that is far below MLB standard.
  9. jmlease1
    I honestly think some of it just has to do with how few competitive innings he threw in college. He's got so little game experience that he's going to throw almost as many innings in his first professional season than his entire college career.
  10. jmlease1
    It's not that simple, though; this is an injury that you probably can't get fully healthy from during a season (he might need surgery to correct it, or it might be chronic in that it will come and go) and then it becomes about things like pain management and capacity which is much harder to measure and isn't going to be same every time. Hindsight is 20/20, but if Buck had come off the injured list and hit 4 homers in a week and then gone down, we'd be looking at it differently...and he's done that before. It's also hard to keep a player on the IL if they start saying they're healthy enough to play, that they're feeling good, and you don't have any medical indicators to show conclusively that they're wrong.
  11. jmlease1
    Nice start to High A for Lackey. I guess he is ready for it, lol. It will be very interesting to see how he finishes the season and where the twins choose to place him in 2027. Regardless, I suspect he will rise quickly and one way or another be in AAA sooner rather than later and have a real chance to be the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028. Wouldn't that be fun? Quick still has some things to work on, but the stuff is impressive. I think he's been doing pretty well this season, especially for someone who has so little game experience at the college or pro level. The 69 IP so far this year is a career high, so just getting him through a full pro season to build him up is good, but there's clearly a high ceiling here. He's got to bring the free passes down, and we'll need to watch how homer-happy he gets, but there's a lot to like about this guy.
  12. jmlease1
    Charlee Soto should not be this high. He's been injured for 2 years now, and you simply cannot be a top 10 prospect if you don't play. He may have a lightning bolt for an arm, but until he starts pitching again regularly (he's thrown 2 2/3 innings this year...in June) he simply needs to be put out of mind as a serious prospect. And I say that as someone who liked the pick, likes the player, and is rooting hard for him. But frankly he shouldn't even be on the list at this point, no matter what the theoretical potential is. Same will hold true with Ellwanger if he can't get back on the field in 2027. Otherwise? seems fine.
  13. jmlease1
    I don't think it'll be that hard next season for him to DH against most RHP and slot in a corner against LHP, but that's just me.
  14. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'm not sure why there's already this belief that Keaschall can't improve defensively, especially in the OF where his speed should play pretty well. Maybe his hands will never be good enough to get back to 2B, but he should be able to improve his route running, reads off the bat, etc. Interesting to see Lawton on this list; I didn't really recall him being all that terrible of a fielder, except when they tried to have him cover CF, which was stretching him too far. Ironic that both of his "all-star" seasons were years that he had pretty terrible defensive numbers.
  15. jmlease1
    I will say, I can understand what the A's see in Kade Morris. His change made the Twins hitter look silly for a bit, even if he couldn't sustain it. Guys were just swinging right over it. Does he have enough command to really make a go of it? Not yet, but he was at least interesting.
  16. jmlease1
    Impressive offensive showing and a good night from Zebby. Gomez blowing up is really the only black mark. Culpepper sure is showing why he was a top prospect, eh? Pretty nice start to his time in MLB and he's settled in pretty well on defense too. I expect pitchers will start adjusting to him soon, so we'll see how he responds to changes in approach and they try to attack him in different ways. Really the only "flaw" in his game right now is a little too much aggression; you'd like to see him grabbing a couple more walks, but it's hard to complain about his patience at the plate when he's hitting .340. But his RH bat is exactly what we need to help us keep from getting pushed around by some mediocre LHP. Zebby wasn't exactly facing a murderer's row out there, but he still did the job and mowed them down. Very nice to see him be efficient enough to get through 7, and not give up cheap homers in that bandbox. It'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season, but the Twins really needed that good start.
  17. jmlease1
    Houston is having a nice week; starting to look like he's pulling out of that slump he had when he hit the wall in August. Hopefully he finishes the season strong. Lot to like there and his overall numbers are excellent. It's getting easier to envision an infield with Culpepper at 2B or 3B and Houston at SS. I like having Houston at the same level as Winokur; it should keep Winokur from playing SS, lol. But I'm pretty pleased with what we've seen from Winokur this season: there's real improvement at the plate and the improvement we saw in Cedar Rapids seems to have carried over to Wichita. He still got some things to work on, but it's getting easier to project him at CF (my preference, i think) or 3B (not unreasonable either) as being someone who could be plus player on both sides, offense and defense.
  18. jmlease1
    I'm happy to ignore them. I want as many chances at the playoffs as possible, and we still have a shot at it this season. Throwing that away for theoretical value would have been a waste. I disagree with one thing in this piece: that none of the acquisitions were "flashy". I think Hoffman was a flashy one, a pitcher that I suspect a lot of teams were interested in. He's a former closer with high level postseason experience and elite stuff. The only way he's not a flashy acquisition is if you don't consider any reliever a flashy acquisition, IMHO. So far the deadline deals have worked out pretty well. They addressed the biggest needs and filled the biggest holes. Hopefully the offense can hold up its end, we get Ryan back healthy, and catch a few breaks.
  19. jmlease1
    The article is about Lewis since returning from his minor league re-set. I don't think anyone is ignoring Lewis' early season struggles, but despite a disastrous start to the season Lewis is now sitting at an OPS+ of 104 and a bWAR of 1.5. He's gone from being a player that you had to wonder if it was time to move on from to being an important part of the puzzle for a team battling for the postseason. Clemens is a willing 1B, but not necessarily a good one defensively. His positional flexibility makes him valuable, and makes him worth having on the roster even when he's having a cold streak (which he has). That's not a dis, that's recognition of reality. Lewis is 3 years younger with a higher ceiling. Most of his struggles are related to injury, so if he's found a position that he can play well and stay healthy at, that's also a success. Seems like you blame Lewis for getting hurt, which is weird.
  20. jmlease1
    and you probably would have called Fragoza a bust at the start of the season (if you'd been aware of him enough to care) because he "repeated a level for the 3rd straight season", since he started this year back in rookie ball. Fragoza has had 3 great months. That's awesome and good news for the franchise, but there's also a reason why people are writing things on this site saying "let's calm down on Fragoza a little". Too soon to be all-in on Fragoza, despite this great run of hitting. Too soon to cut bait on Young, despite his many many many errors and K's.
  21. jmlease1
    I've been very pleased with the way Royce has played at 1B. And it does seem like he'll do even better defensively with more reps and familiarity with the decisions at the position. And if he's hitting like this as well, then the Twins might have finally found their 1B. I think one of the most encouraging signs was how Royce's stutter in July didn't turn into a tailspin. After raking immediately upon his return in June, he definitely slowed in July...but has been on fire again in August. And it doesn't feel like he's taking a bad PA with him into the field. It's been an impressive turnaround for Royce, and it's great to see him able to let his ability show out. He's on track to have his healthiest season as a pro, and one of his most productive. He's gone from being a "he needs a change of scenery" candidate to a solid piece of the lineup and one you'd presume would be considered a core piece for next season. His RH bat is going to be really important to the Twins having a shot at the postseason this year, and I'm here for it.
  22. jmlease1
    "3rd straight season"? let not pretend the cup of coffee he got last year after being drafted counts as anything more than a cameo. 5 games and 22 PA's is not now, nor has it ever been "a season". he might end up back at Ft. Myers, but he's still going to be a year younger than the average age down there. If you start declaring kids like this to be busts after 1 season at 19 you might as well never draft another HS player. And I say this as someone who isn't a big fan of Quentin Young.
  23. jmlease1
    Lackey's doing fine, i think. Be nice to see him rack up a few more hits, just to keep people from getting overheated about the low (for now) BA, but he clearly knows the strike zone. I'm also not worrying about a guy not showing much power in his first days in the FSL. Considering how much teams are running on him and how bad A-ball pitchers are at holding runners on, I'd say he's doing a pretty good job controlling the running game. Tinney has some work to do: the low contact rates are going to be concerning, even with massive power. He's never going to be the catcher that Lackey is (people have been predicting a move from out of there since before he was drafted) and his path up the ranks is clearly through his bat. But he can't be sub-Mendoza Line for that power to play up. Against A-ball guys he'll be able to get lots of cheap walks by knowing the strike zone and a willingness to be selective...but he'll need to K less and hit more. I'd say a B so far on Lackey (he's not destroying Ft. Myers by any means but hardly looking lost either), more of a C/C+ on Tinney...who is much more of a boom/bust candidate anyways.
  24. jmlease1
    This is silly, unless you're trying to just preemptively declare Young a bust. But if you want to write off every toolsy, high-ceiling, low floor prospect the Twins draft at age 19 because Cavaco was a bust...I guess you can? But for someone to actually be following Cavaco's development path, then they need to miss their first full professional year and not actually play because of a global pandemic. Fortunately, Young is not having to face that. Cavaco probably still busts anyways, but missing an entire season of development not because of injury or anything but because they simply didn't have minor league ball and there was nothing he could do about it certainly put a barrier up for Cavaco. It's a bummer he couldn't clear that, but he's ain't the first teenager to not be able to hit as a pro and he won't be the last. (Cavaco also had basically one healthy season as a pro, which is almost certainly another reason why he didn't ever put it together) Young has real power potential and also has to date a better OPS than Cavaco achieved in a full (or mostly full season) at any level. He's also far from the first guy to struggle defensively finding a position at 19 and botch up a ton of errors. I wouldn't put him high on my prospect rankings; I tend to be skeptical of these kinds of toolsy high school prospects until they show more in the minors...but functionally calling him a bust in his first full pro season is kind of ridiculous.
  25. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Just when you think this team might be cooked, they rattle off 2 straight vs a top team. This isn't the best Twins squad we've seen in the past decade or anything, but they do battle. Nice bounceback by Morris too; he was one of the guys who couldn't get it done against Philly, so good to see him looking strong vs Atl. I think we've found something in him as a bullpen piece. Go get the sweep!
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