jmlease1

seriously. He's a nice prospect and an interesting player, but there's almost no chance that a team will take him in the Rule 5 (if there is one) and zero chance that he'll be able to stick on an MLB roster for a full season. With teams only carrying 13 position players, it's harder than ever to carry a Rule 5 player for a full season. No contending team would even consider it, and 20+ teams think they could be contenders at the start of every season. Those roster spots are hugely important and spending one of them on a player you can't reasonably expect to contribute is incredibly difficult. Taking a player who has never taken an AB above A-ball (and didn't exactly dominate High A) isn't going to happen unless they are so superior defensively that they could start at CF/SS/C and add value even if they can't hit their body temperature. They won't protect him. He won't get taken. If be some tiny chance he does get selected, he'll almost certainly get returned. This is a non-issue. It's pretty low-risk to leave A-ball players unprotected at this point.

This crisis this franchise has is turning high draft picks into consistent contributors. Too many prospects aren't getting past suspect stage, and we won't compete without more of those being more than 1 year wonders (if they make it at all). Need guys like Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez to take the next step, Keaschall & Bradley to replicate 2026, etc. Have a few guys like Abel get healthy and step in. Guys like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, SWR and Martin not being able to replicate/advance was a real step back. Injuries are going to hit, but hopefully we have fewer career-wreckers on that front too. Injuries are certainly the other crisis point: yes, everyone will have some...but reducing the numbers, having fewer season (or career) enders may not be fixable, but it's always going to be an issue because as a franchise we're unlikely to have the level of depth where losing multiple key contributors for long periods is something that we can overcome effectively. That's a tougher solution to find, but watching for it matters. Losing prospects like Miranda and Kirilloff to career-wrecking injuries certainly has hurt a lot. (and hopefully the ones to Festa and Abel aren't to that level)

Correct. I'm rooting for the guy, but until he's actually back on the mound and throwing competitive innings, we simply can't consider him as part of anything. His return would be additive, but you can't bet on it at all at this point.

Gomez did well, but relievers are such small samples that it's hard to know whether it's true improvement or variance driving their success. I would have had Clemens 3rd; he was solid last season, but this year was good regular and took another step forward that wasn';t just playing time. Suspect Clemens gets discounted for being 30. I think Lee is the right choice: he went from being a poor SS to a quality 3B in the same season, not just improved from last year, but he also added 20-odd pts to his OPS+, cracked 25 homers, put health issues to bed (whatever might have been going on with his back and/or shoulder seems to be in the rear view after being able to play 2 full seasons) and has himself locked in as the starting 3B. Bradley would not have been a bad choice, to be clear: career highs in basically everything and locked himself in as a top of the rotation guy. It sort of feels liek Bradley maybe gets a little short shrift because you could always see the talent and it maybe felt like he didn't get "better" just more consistent...but isn't that a part of real improvement, being able to do it day in and day out, instead of just flashing it from time to time? I probably go: Lee Bradley Clemens But no bad choices in these three, IMHO, whichever order you have.

Really? We're making up a 2028 crisis now? Talk about starved for content. As noted, this is only a "crisis" if the Twins literally do nothing. But beyond that, having a projected rotation with Bradley, Prielipp, Abel, and Matthews with a PTBNL in the 5th slot is better than where the Twins were year after year in the 2010's...

I think there's plenty of ABs for an OF of Buxton, Jenkins, E-Rod, and Keaschall if they're also cycling them through the DH slot. They can even fit Roden in there. That lets them give Buxton more time off and minimize Keaschall's defensive challenges. That's a higher upside group than keeping Bell, but there's some risk with younger guys struggling to adjust. But I'd take that risk over another 1 year veteran mediocrity right now.

I did not even know there was an all-MLB team.

I actually do believe the reason Keaschall played RF rather than LF was because Shelton thought it was the best way to maximize Larnach, by keeping him comfortable. It's the biggest knock I have against Shelton for the season and something to watch about how he handles the roster in the future. They put keaschall in RF because Shelton had locked in on Larnach as his primary LF and RF was "open". We saw this was Austin Martin too. Once Wallner got sent down, Larnach should have been asked to move to RF, but they didn't do it. And that's on Shelton. Keaschall easily makes more sense in LF, and hopefully a) Larnach is moved on in the offseason, b) Keaschall spends as much time as possible prepping to play in LF, and c) Shelton actually plays him there. (While I expect Rodriguez and Jenkins to be on the 26-man to start the season next year, they both make more sense to play at RF or CF than Keaschall does)

Royce had showed he could field 3B just fine, and without a better option available at SS it made some sense to see whether or not Lee could hold it down while we waited on development from guys like Culpepper and Houston. It didn't work, but the other options weren't great, especially while still trying to make it work with Keaschall at 2B. It's easy to drop 20/20 hindsight, but giving up on Keaschall at 2B before the season even started and benching Lewis (or moving him to 1B) and handing SS to Kreidler/Gray to start the season is vaguely nuts, just to accommodate Lee's move to 3B. nice for Lee to get GG consideration at 3B already. He's quite good there, and his lack of range hurts much less, and his arm is just fine, especially when he has the opportunity to set and throw. If he can continue to grow as a hitter (chase less, my brother!), adding some additional walks while retaining the power he showed this year, he's going to be a very good 3B, especially with that quality defense.

Keaschall actually scored the most runs for the Twins: 86. Bell was second at 78, with Clemens at 74. People don't take RBIs all that serious as a stat is because it's been shown over and over that they're more a result of opportunity than skill. Bell did ok as a DH for the Twins, but provides no defense, nothing on the bases and it's pretty hard to argue that he was one of the 5 best hitters on the team. As a hitter, he was closer to Brooks Lee than he was to Luke Keaschall. Bell did very well with his opportunities, but he damn well better when he spends the entire season hitting in the 3rd-5th slots. (Lee spent most of his season hitting 6th-9th) Keaschall's a fine choice for MVP; I might have gone with Bradley who did a lot to hold the rotation together through all the injuries (not to mention a crappy bullpen). But I think Keaschall has a really bright future and had a very good year, especially once they pulled him off 2B.

Bohm is really a bet that a) his second half was for real, and b) there's more to unlock. He's not terribly exciting, and it's hard to see him as much more than a potential floor-raiser. I'd wonder a little about his defense, but he's been much more of a 3B than a 1B over the years...does he improve at 1B by simply concentrating on just one position? I'm not enthusiastic about him, but the FA market is thin. Sad story about the family conflict, though. What a horrible mess that is.

Taj is absolutely the winner for this one. He's was excellent. And there's still more ceiling available for him; as noted there were still those wobbles with his control, particularly the non-competitive pitches (usually with the curve and the split) that gave hitters a break. Would like to see him work the 4-seamer up in the zone more and away from the heart of the plate; it's the pitch that probably is the easiest to sit on for a hitter, even if it's still not easy with that kind of velocity. Especially impressed with his ability to get deeper into games. 11 times he pitched into the 7th; 18 out of his 31 starts were at least 6 innings. 16 starts with a Game Score of 60 or better, which really gave the team great opportunities to win. Only 3 games with a Game Score under 40 (which I would judge as not giving the team much chance to win) and 2 of those were shortly after coming off the IL, suggesting that he was still a little rusty. And his FIP was pretty close to his ERA, suggesting that it wasn't just good luck either. Big fan of Taj and he sure looks like a top of the rotation guy.

Schilling doesn't check EVERY box; no Cy Young on his resume. He's one of the best "old" pitchers of all time. But it's not just his political views that made it easy for people to pass on him for the Hall; he also was neck-deep in financial fraud too; he just managed to settle it out of court like so many rich people do. (I'd also argue that advocating for people to be hung and some of the other insane crap he's said goes a bit beyond "political views" as if it was merely about differences in which candidates he supports)

You have to wonder if that 3rd Cy Young (which would have filled the hole and given him 3 straight) would have truly made the difference. At the very least, he's not a one-and-done and gets a fuller examination and debate on his qualifications. The 3rd Cy makes the Koufax comp even closer and easier for voters less interested in advanced stats. The lack of playoff success certainly didn't help, but it's not like his overall numbers are terrible. His teams being unlucky/not good enough isn't all on him. If he'd won a title it probably would have helped his case a bunch, but not winning one shouldn't (and probably didn't) hammer him too much. My goodness, Johan was soooo good before he got hurt.

nice to see Lares pitching in the AFL. I always thought he was an interesting prospect if he could get healthy and figure out where the ball was going. Maybe he'll figure it out? A bit of a longer shot at this point, and might find his destiny in the bullpen, but I wouldn't complain about the twins finding a LHP option for the bullpen down the road in him...

with teams sending fewer top pitchers, i think that's unfortunately true. That said, happy to see Mercedes and DeBarge doing well. I was a little surprised to see Mercedes go to the AFL, since he didn't miss that many games, but maybe they want to push him a little and get him to AA for next year? DeBarge has simple questions to answer: can he make enough hard contact? can he be more than just a slap hitter who still strikes out a bunch? He's got a good eye, he's got good speed, and he's got a fine glove that could play at several positions. But unless he finds the Rhythm of the Night soon, he's going to be singing a different tune.

Two things going on here, though: Zoll got the title that had been held by Levine in 2024, but was still answering to Falvey until just before the 2026 season. YMMV on how much you think that matters and how much additional responsibility (if any) Zoll took on when Falvey was let go and not replaced.

I think Incomplete is fair. There's been some stuff that was questionable (the catcher shuffle was weird and unproductive), and while Zoll inherited the excess of LH COF/DH guys, he also didn't manage to do much about it during the season either. The deadline moves were pretty strong (got good value without sacrificing top prospects with the highest upside while shoring up obvious weaknesses) and it's not his fault that's when the team tanked. If he'd managed to move Larnach at the deadline to Houston he would have looked even better. I do fault him some for not shoring up the bullpen from the jump; even with a short period to be in charge, he had opportunity to stabilize that area and didn't. I'm presuming that most of the bad grades he'll get here are people that will trash Zoll for his connection to Falvey, or blame him for things that weren't really in his control? Boring. This season is very much on him (and ownership). I don't expect a lot out of ownership; fool me once, etc. But this may be Zoll's one real shot at the big chair, so I'm interested to see what he does with it. Twins have trade assets available, they should have some payroll budget available, and the roster is not bereft of talent. I do expect him to do something more than simply nibble around the edges. If all he does is run it back and sign a low-end reliever or 2 then it'll be a sign that a) ownership are what we thought they were, and b) Zoll isn't going to get it done.

It may be a little tedious, but it's also the single biggest issue related to the franchise, ain't it?

The Fan Graphs tool is ok, but some of the assumptions aren't great. Presuming that mutual option will get picked up by both sides is...theoretically possible? But almost never happens, so including it in the baseline seems silly. It's even more ridiculous, when you include the cost of declining the option and paying the buyout in there, which they did with Josh Bell. Pick a lane FG: either everyone is agreeing to the mutual option or not, but the Twins aren't paying an option AND a buyout on the same contract! As a result, the presumption of a baseline for the twins at $124M is pretty wrong. Much more realistic is the Twins decline the option on Bell, and net savings of $8.75M. Personally, I'd decline to offer arbitration on both Larnach and Lewis at this point, which saves another $11.4M. That puts the "real" payroll (before 40-man and benefits) at closer to $100M, not $124M. What will the team set the number at? I think it will be around $130M, but I'm hoping for closer to $140M. And $40M should give this team a pretty good chunk of change to invest in the roster. The biggest problem is the areas they need the most help are Catcher (assuming Jeffers leaves, which seems probably, even if we offer the QO, which I would), 1B, and the bullpen...and on the position side in particular, you're talking weak classes at those positions. So I would spend real money on the bullpen (re-sign Minter or sign a LHP of similar quality, sign an Abreu-type RH FA) and look for trade scenarios where the Twins actually take on salary for once for shore up 1B. But I think the payroll budget for next season is going to be somewhere in the $130M-140M range. That said...I don't really expect the Twins to be that explicit about a number, because while it might generate some fan support, they would also see it as undermining their negotiating position.

Houston had a very good season. I had a lot of questions about his bat, and he's doing a great job in quelling them so far. The glove is probably MLB-ready right now, which is a nice base to start from. It will be interesting to see where they start him next season; AAA would be an aggressive promotion, but hardly unwarranted. Expecting him to make the team out of spring training? Exceptionally unlikely. People get excited about the 50 steals, but should calm down. Kala'i Rosario swiped like 30 bags in AA and he's not that fast. Houston has good speed and should be an effective runner in MLB, but the 50 steals in 2026 doesn't really mean much. It's really easy to get steals in the minors if you're even a little aggressive about it. There's still some questions Houston needs to answer about his bat, even though he did a very good job in his first full pro season. As he faces more advanced pitchers and teams start to get a book on him, can he make adjustments? I've been impressed on how he's done facing down pitchers older than he is so far, but I'd like a little more evidence that his approach at the plate will work for him long term. He had a couple of power outages last season; while he doesn't need to be a 20 homer type of player to be a real asset, he also needs to be more than just a slap hitter. The 40 xbh in 116 games was encouraging as well...can he keep that going? He's on a really good path. Looking forward to seeing him earn his way to the starting SS job. Culpepper will slide over to 2B nicely if Houston shows he's ready.

It's funny that you think that the Twins don't have individualized plans for all their prospects, and a road map for where they hope that they will be, based on annual reviews of their actual development. They just don't share all those details with fans. But I think you're simply wrong with your concept of moving out the guys who aren't working out earlier. Development is not linear and if you start tossing out every prospect who struggles at A-ball you're going to be missing out on a lot of talent.

I think that's fair, I just don't think the roster spot is worth the risk, and think that we will get "stuck" with him if we tender him, and that Shelton might start him in LF as long as he's on the roster, no matter that he's better suited to DH or RF. I think his actual value on the open market is $5M or less and everyone else will lock up their preferred targets that way rather than give both extra money and some other compensation (even if it's very minor) to take Larnach off our hands.

I don't think Gonzalez's future with the Twins is all that complicated at all. He's still got a couple of option years left and if he shows he can hit in AAA in 2027 then he's going to get opportunities in MLB, whether it's corner OF, DH, or 1B because there will almost certainly be a need for his RH bat. Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't, but he's actually reasonably well-positioned. He needs to take a step forward; he didn't have a particularly good season at the plate, but he's also only 22 and had barely played in AAA. This isn't a guy who is 26 or repeating AAA for the 3rd time. And I'm not concerned that he didn't immediately produce in his late-season cup of coffee, because that's really what it was: he didn't exactly get much playing time. (7 PA's in 5 games is nothing) He'll very likely start next season in AAA, unless he's destroying it in spring training (which would be great) and there's not exactly a 40-man crunch right now for the Twins. GG's future with the Twins doesn't make my Top Ten list of off-season things to think about, let alone be concerned about,.

The Rosario comp is pretty accurate: Cleveland signed him to that FA deal (which was about what he would have gotten in arbitration, probably a bit less) and ended up trading him in a pure salary dump to save about $2M. They literally got nothing for him, since they immediately cut Sandoval. Eddie got hot for Atl, who then signed him to a contract they immediately regretted and he vastly under-performed, he got one more make-good contract with the Nats who cut him, and he hasn't been able to stick with anyone since and is out of MLB. And Larnach has never had a season anywhere near as good as Rosario's 2018. Reality is, there's always guys like this available for $4-8M on the FA market, and it's a crapshoot as to which one has one more good year in them. I think Larnach will hit RHP just fine for 2-3 more seasons, but won't give you anything else. If you need that bench bat and can get it for $2M, great! But that not what we're talking about.'