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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    It's a good trade. I liked Amick, but he's got real contact problems and might end up as a 1B/DH assuming he can hit enough. Which is questionable with his contact rates. It's not a particularly high price and this gives us what should be a reliable, high quality LH option for the late innings who doesn't get murdered by RH hitters historically (he's gotten tee'd off on a bit this year, but it's a small sample). A good move, IMHO, and a good start. Get us in a similar quality RHP for late-inning relief for a similar price and I'll feel even better. Good use of depth assets.
  2. jmlease1
    He's worth it this year; he's been able to stay healthy and has been able to be a good 2B, and he's also hit LHP for basically the first time in his career. The question is how many of those things will continue. We know his knees are bad, we know his defense hasn't always been good, and we know that historically he can't hit LHP. SF should trade him; he's on an expiring and you basically couldn't sell any higher than this...but buyer beware. And I say this as someone who likes Arraez.
  3. jmlease1
    not putting Lackey on that list? He'd be damn near untouchable for me.
  4. jmlease1
    It's an excellent win, and an important one. They got done what they needed to on the homestand (a sweep would have been nice, but as long as they keep winning series they are in this thing). Be nice if they could have done it the easy way, but you don't get extra points for piling up early runs. Maybe this gets the offense going, though. It's been looking frustrating as hell out there lately for the good guys at the plate.
  5. jmlease1
    I'd like to see a LHP who isn't cooked, a RH set-up guy (I'd rather get a guy that can be a good set-up man than pay a premium for someone who just happened to get tapped to pitch the 9th inning a lot) and wouldn't mind one more RHP with some velocity. Rogers is getting by on guts and guile, Funderburk has been poor, so we need a LHP. Gomez may be getting lucky, but I'll ride the luck. Morris is looking like a real guy in the 'pen. Nance seems fine. Adams is worth working with. But we need 2 more for sure, and Rojas is probably more of a bulk guy right now with the rotation thin too.
  6. jmlease1
    A real shame. I thought Sands was a good fit to close games or serve as a set-up man and losing him made a thin bullpen quite a bit weaker. Hope he recovers fully and can get his career back on track. The "rest & rehab" methodology hasn't panned out very well, and while I can certainly understand the desire to avoid surgery (even taking the competitive aspect out, it's almost always better to avoid cutting cut if you can) there may need to be some re-evaluation if surgery keeps ending up as the eventual answer all along.
  7. jmlease1
    Twins fans remain obsessed with Arraez. Listen, I'm happy for him that he's playing well this year, but he was not particularly good the previous 2, and has neutral platoon splits for the very first time in his career (anyone else thinking that's not going to stick?). Would I rather have him in the infield than Tristan Gray? Sure, but I would be reluctant to give up much for him because of his limitations. I'm certainly not sending any of our top prospects for an infield rental, especially when the need is much greater in the bullpen.
  8. jmlease1
    I think there's a real possibility the twins deal a catcher before the deadline; the system is as healthy as it's ever been with prospects at the position (Lackey, Tait, Diaw, and Jimenez) along with the 3 in MLB, but it's really hard to predict which one might go? I'd be happy to keep Jeffers and worry about him being a free agent after the season and try and go for a playoff run, but the Twins might get blown away by an offer, and Caratini & Jackson have held up when Jeffers was gone. If they keep Jeffers, I kind of feel like the most likely to go is Jackson, which won't bring a lot in return, but would be better than carrying three catchers down the stretch or losing him on waivers. I just don't see a team like the Yankees offering much for Caratini; they're more likely to want a rental rather than take on his 2027 salary so I have to wonder if the return on Jackson would be similar to what we'd get for Caratini; I certainly don't want to eat any of Caratini's 2027 salary! But since the Twins are looking to be buyers it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Diaw was part of a trade deal either. I think Tait is more likely to stay: while his value should be high, I think the Twins are going to be more modest buyers and unlikely to give up a top 100 prospect for a rental reliever.
  9. jmlease1
    How many games does Kaelen Culpepper need to play before the Twins decide he's ready and recovered from his injury? He's got 5 in and looks pretty good. Is it 7? 10? More? Or is it just about getting past the trade deadline before calling him up? Because he sure seems like a better fit than running Tristan Gray back. And much as I want to see Walker Jenkins up in MLB, I want to see Emma even more. But there's simply no way they bring him straight from a rehab assignment in A-ball to MLB. Tait has been doing well lately; following up a very good June with a solid July works for me. Going to be very interesting to see how the Twins handle him going forward, and whether they see him more as a trade asset now that they have Lackey on board. As someone who doesn't think you can ever have too much catching, I'd need to be blown away to include him in a deal, but YMMV. Diaw still hitting well and still catching most of the time in Wichita too. Quite the bundle of riches we now have at the position...
  10. jmlease1
    Well, Rodriguez would have been up long ago but dude keeps getting hurt. I doubt they're going to skip his rehab assignments and put him in MLB having barely swung a bat for a couple of months. But I hear ya.
  11. jmlease1
    Quentin Young is one of the most boom or bust prospects I think we've seen in a while. When he connects he can really make the ball fly. When he's on a bit of a roll, he can look really good at the plate. But there's no consistency yet and it might take a while if it ever gets there. (and oof, the defense.) Going to be a fascinating prospect to watch and see if he develops. I don't mind that they took a flier on his tools, despite my skepticism on him as a prospect; if you don't take some chances in the draft from time to time, you limit your upside. He's still very young and this is only his first full professional season. Going to be very interesting to see what they do if Buxton needs to go back on the IL; could it be Walker Jenkins time? He's been good and very steady with an approach that should play, and he could cover in CF without much trouble. But he hasn't dominated either, and he's not on the 40-man yet. Heh. Let's get people mad: the more obvious choice for promotion is actually Matt Wallner, who has been substantially better at the plate, is already on the 40-man, and would increase his trade value if he popped back up in MLB and had a couple of good games before the deadline. *runs away*
  12. jmlease1
    Would have been a super frustrating loss: Bradley pitched quite well, the bullpen did the job, but the offense wasn't holding up their end. It's not a very good KC team, even if they've been on a bit of a hot streak. Of course, they still have Sal Perez, who could be riding an 0-46 streak, and I'll still assume that he's going to nail the Twins in some fashion. Can't wait for him to retire. 5 DPs. That's just brutal. normally 10 hits and 4 walks will generate more than 3 runs. Nice to see Royce come in and walk it off, though. Been a tough year for Royce and you like to see him come up big in a key moment. Really needed this win. Want to see a sweep, but will settle for a series win. I really want the Twins to be buyers and not sellers this deadline, and this was a key game for that goal.
  13. jmlease1
    Yeah, that surprised me too. It was a small sample, but Rosario was making lots of contact and controlling the zone pretty effectively, even if there wasn't as much of his usual power in AAA yet. Bit surprised to see him only get a few weeks and then pushed back down. Not sure we learn much more about him in Wichita. He's no longer a significant prospect, but he does have some qualities.
  14. jmlease1
    Houston is doing great in AA so far, but it's still only 105 ABs. Moving him up to AAA for an extra month or so won't make a ton of a difference to his development, not really going to fret if he spends most or all of the rest of the season in Wichita. If he's positioned himself to be starting at AAA next season he'll be in a great spot. Right now the big hurdle for him to clear is to show he can handle the grind of a full professional season and not get ground down in the dog days. Have to be happy with what we're seeing this year, so far he's answering the questions about his bat. Winokur is off to a very nice start at AA. If he's able to find consistency, that bat could be special. Maybe all the tools are starting to come together. Pretty good at only 21 in AA. Wallner is a bit stuck, and so are the Twins with him. He's got himself back into a groove and should be called back up...but who does he replace? They simply don't need another LH bat who adds nothing on D. He's ripe for a trade, but what do you get for a guy his age who is beating up on AAA pitching but shown a history of extended slumps in MLB? He's a platoon DH at this point who can stand out in RF. Very happy to see Culpepper back. Can't wait for him to get a few more games under him at AAA and get his long-awaited call up to MLB, which I expect will happen around the trade deadline once the Twins catching situation is resolved and a roster spot opens up.
  15. jmlease1
    Isn't the reality that injuries mostly erased Lewis' value and his inability to produce after getting healthy the last couple of seasons wiped out the rest of it? This isn't about the Twins not valuing his skills or athleticism, it's about injuries robbing him of both and him not being able to produce consistently without them. He had a very good run after his minor league re-set...and is now struggling at the plate again. He no longer has the speed and quickness to play SS, and his scattershot arm has made it necessary to have a strong 1B to bail him out. He looks like he could be a quality 1B, so it makes sense to let him give it a go there, but if he can't pull out of this latest slump, none of it matters. And it's really not on the Twins at this point for his lack of hitting. Systemic stupidity? Hardly. Injuries wrecked him and he hasn't been able to find a way with less athleticism in his arsenal. Let's not pretend Royce Lewis is still the super fast, super athletic guy from 2022.
  16. jmlease1
    Miller is still a poor hitter: The .745 OPS (as of today) may be a career best, but the team OPS is .821. The PCL is a hitter's league. If Kaelen Culpepper were putting up that kind of OPS in Saint Paul we'd be all thinking he's in a real trouble and not going to hit in MLB. Miller will likely make it as a utility guy because of the glove, but Houston is already looking like he has more potential to be a complete player and be a starting SS.
  17. jmlease1
    Excellent news that the entire draft class signed. It should be a surprise, but it is a signal that the Twins are taking care of business correctly, and not screwing around. While it's increasingly unusual to draft someone you can't sign, it does still happen (and may increasingly happen in the NIL era where players may look to pass on going pro earlier because they can still get paid in college). I'm not complaining about FanGraphs putting 7 Twins on their top 100 either; leaving Rodriguez off is understandable at this point, but 7 plus still having Emma? Good sign for the higher-end talent, and the Twins still have a bunch of guys who will never make their list but could still break out and/or be impactful MLB players. Rojas will fall off soon at this rate, but this is still good. Houston is starting to make believers out of skeptics (I've been one). I think it was fair to be concerned about his bat; the production in his last season of college did look like it could be a real mirage and he did have to make adjustments at High A. But he's doing the work and so far showing enough pop to go along with good contact skills and understanding of the strike zone to be an effective hitter who won't just get pushed around/ignored. It's still a fairly small sample in AA, but right now he's answering the questions, and instead of looking like a bit of a reach much more like a steal. Tait is doing ok. He's going to need time and development. Not surprised to see him so high with FanGraphs; they love young players with loud tools and always worry less about production at that level. He's a bit of a boom or bust prospect for me and I always look a bit askance there, but for a 19 year-old catcher in high A, he's doing fine. Plenty to work on, but you can see the potential. Really looking forward to seeing a few of the new class get on the field. I suspect most of the pitchers won't, but Lackey and some of the other hitters will for sure.
  18. jmlease1
    Pretty big win. There's a big difference between losing a series 3-1 and taking the 2-2 draw, especially on the road. Not a great road trip, but it could have been a disaster and they dodged that. Need some good results this weekend, but they're not out of it. Bradley has been excellent this season, IMHO. Bit of a wobbler against the Cubs, but bounced back with another strong start. Not his best command, but battled through it rather than getting lit up early, which you have to like. He's got the stuff to work around the walks. 5 of his last 6 starts he's put up a Game Score of 60+ and that gives your team a fine chance to come away with the win. He's gotten into the 7th in 40% of his starts this season too; Twins really needed that length yesterday and he provided.
  19. jmlease1
    Santana fell apart after his rookie season but stuck around in baseball for 7 more seasons, including a very nice season as a utility guy in 2021 for Texas. Even if Brooks follows the Santana path, he'll be around for more than a couple of seasons. It's a weird comp anyways: Lee has steadily improved over 3 seasons in MLB, whereas Santana had a great rookie season and then it went to hell on him. Santana is more like James Outman than Brooks Lee. Who Lee is like is a much more interesting question.
  20. jmlease1
    Why would the Twins sell low on E-Rod? Because he's not very popular in the Twins Daily forums? it's not like they're on the verge of losing him.
  21. jmlease1
    Bad probably isn't the right word for it, but the gap between AAA and MLB is pretty big right now, which makes it challenging for some of these guys. Approaches that work in AAA don't always translate to MLB.
  22. jmlease1
    I think Tinney is too high, especially until he's passed the Lemon Test. Right now he doesn't have a position and it's unclear whether or not he can translate what looks like light tower power into results. Quentin Young was too high before, and he's still too high: there's incredible athletic talent there, but until he's able to start translating those tools into game production, he's not a top prospect to me. I'm not totally out on him, but he's borderline top 20 at best, and will need a LOT of time and development. Admittedly, I don't rank "boom or bust" prospects as highly as others. I think it's flip a coin on Lackey v Culpepper for #2 and it's not an insult to either.
  23. jmlease1
    Team desperately needed that one to stop the bleeding. Hopefully they can back it up on getaway day and steal a split. They're not dead yet, but would have been dangerously close if they'd dropped another. Like seeing the big game from Brooks. He hasn't had a bad month at the plate all season and has been hitting quite well for the past month. Be interesting to see how much more is in his bat; the home-road splits are weird and fluky (he was better at home than road last season), and he hasn't found his RH swing this year...bringing both of these up to neutral and suddenly he's looking like the serious hitter we've were hoping for when he was drafted.
  24. jmlease1
    with the MLB team back in free-fall, it's back to watching the minors, where at least there's always hope. Houston and Diaw continue to be interesting players to track. Happy to see them each crack a double. Neither player needs to become a big slugger, but if they're able to show they can do damage when pitchers make mistakes, show they're more complete hitters, it's what we want to see. I like their speed, I like their contact ability, they both are looking like they understand the strike zone...hoping for a strong second half from both of these guys. Really wish Culpepper was healthy. Miss seeing him in the boxes. I have no good way to evaluate Quentin Young at this point, but he seems like he has a long way to go. I've felt like he's been ranked too high for a while. It does look like he's a bit less of an error machine, but I still have trouble believing he has any realistic chance to stick at SS.
  25. jmlease1
    Did I say it was his job? But how he perceives his job is an impediment, because he has a great deal of sway over a substantial cadre of players, including ones on the player's exec committee and negotiating committees. In terms of getting a CBA that improves finance balance, the Pohlads aren't entirely the villains either. (They're villains because the owners are always the villains, but not necessarily on this aspect. I'm sure the Pohalds first choice to flatten the playing field by taking money from the players...but they're more likely to agree to a cap & floor arrangement that wouldn't net cost the player's anything than some of the player's represented by Scott Boras) None of these parties are on the fan's side. Not the player's union, not Scott Boras, and never the owners.
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