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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I swear, this franchise is cursed. This really sucks. Big fan of Pablo Lopez, love watching him pitch.
  2. jmlease1
    Only reason to sign another starter right now is if we're also dealing a starter to fill holes on this roster and attempt to rebalance things. Let the kids pitch.
  3. jmlease1
    which is a bit nonsensical; getting added to the 40-man doesn't take a player out of the development pipeline, even making their MLB debut doesn't fully change that. (additionally, it's poor writing to say that Walker Jenkins has "slowly climbed the minor leagues" when he reached AAA in his second full season of pro ball at the ripe old age of 20. Dude can't legally drink until this Thursday.) There's plenty of talent in the OF for the Twins right now if a couple of these guys that are at the precipice can make the leap to MLB, it's just that a bunch of them are on the 40-man. It looks a little thin only when you exclude Rodriguez, Roden, Gonzalez, and Mendez from the list (3 of the 4 haven't played a game in MLB and the 4th might still be buried behind Larnach and (ugh) Outman). We'll see if/who emerges in the lower minors this season, but they were pretty loaded in AA & AAA last season, and are loaded in AAA this season as well. So it should be a surprise that there's a bit of a gap right now as that wave of talent has moved up.
  4. jmlease1
    It's an interesting idea and there are ways that you could make it work by using 1 "starter" as a bulk/long man that might be smart. I think the better way to look at it that you have a guy in your bullpen who will be expected to go 2-4 innings when he enters the game rather than having a parade of guys out of the bullpen to finish the game. You're unlikely to make it work well consistently pairing guys up I suspect, but could it work well if you look for opportunities to have your long man pitch multiple innings every week rather than holding them only in case of a guy having a short start? Sure. Instead of sending out 4 one inning guys to finish the game after SWR or someone gives you 5 good innings but a high pitch count, you send in a Festa or Matthews with a goal of having them go 3 innings, and maybe even finish it off depending on the game situation. They can still fill the old long man role most of the time if someone gets shelled early or injured mid-game too. It's not really piggybacking, more like going with a long man that you don't treat like the worst pitcher in your bullpen...
  5. jmlease1
    Twins didn't really lose either because you simply can't count on Stewart to be able to pitch. Maybe he would be nice in a few months IF healthy, but he also might never be healthy. He might struggle when he comes back again and give LA nothing. Neither team gave up much, neither team got anything. The way the Twins actually lose this deal is if Outman is given a roster spot on scholarship, rather than be forced to win a job.
  6. jmlease1
    There's some rose-colored glasses going on here; you certainly had some botches on the fundamentals on some of the late TK teams especially as the overall talent level declined. (there were some rough stretches with guys like Lawton, Kelly, Brede, etc) It's like with Gardy's squads, who were praised as being fundamentally sound and for "playing the right way" for years even when the performance on the field didn't reflect it. I think you'll also be disappointed if you expect this team to intentionally trade outs for bases by bunting runners over. (seriously, what is the obsession that people have around here with MOAR BUNTING?) It's not going to score more runs, win more games, or put butts in seats.
  7. jmlease1
    This system is a dumb one, but it's what we're stuck with for now. It has all kinds of nonsensical pieces in it (like the fact that the arbitrator might not really know very much about baseball or the fact that even if a player had a poor year they're still getting a raise regardless) but it's really designed more to cost control raises for younger players than anything else. Overall it's better for the owners than the players by a lot (Joe Ryan will likely be worth 4-8 times what his actual salary will be for 2026) but as noted: even teams don't like it, especially the process. It might get changed in the next CBA because the next CBA could have some more radical changes to the financial systems of baseball and if it does, arbitration could easily be a piece of what goes, especially in a system with a cap & a floor. I'd be fine with it. I generally prefer players get more. I'm not interested in carrying the water for the billionaire owners, even if the players are millionaires.
  8. jmlease1
    I don't mind them making signings like this to see if any of these kind of guys have anything left on a minor league deal with no promises of a roster spot. And if he's healthy and fully rehabbed it's certainly possible that Hendriks can still pitch in this day and age. The real issue is they didn't go out and get a solid veteran RHP for the bullpen that they can plug in and should be able to count on to be one of the pillars of the bullpen as they sort out who the converted starters will be and what reclamation projects still have something to give. They're skipping over the fact that they no longer have a Jax, Duran, or Varland back there any longer and just assuming they can piece it together with nothing stronger than Sands and Rogers as the spine of the bullpen. It's possible they're right, but it's a ginormous risk and they're pretending it's all fine. If they're serious about winning back the trust of fans (lol) this is not how you do it.
  9. jmlease1
    TB isn't some mystical organization where if they move on from a player that player must not be capable of doing the job. I'm sure they didn't think Bradley was going to make it in their rotation doing things the way they do them. It's not a guarantee that Bradley will fail as a starter and should be moved immediately to the bullpen. This does seem to be the key, doesn't it? Part of the question is whether that issue is mental or physical, and whether or not different coaching and support can help him find the consistency he needs. Looking at his Game Scores is interesting: He'll put up games in the 60's or 70's and then roll in with a 22. (starts 10-14 in 2025). Same kind of deal in his last 3 starts with TB. (CWS, of all teams, had his number last season: 3 starts, 3 bad results. But he handled Houston great both times he faced them. You never know with this stuff.) He's a fascinating case and to me seems like the one you'd most likely give another run at the rotation first, out of the three profiled so far. Better arsenal, shown he can get deep into games with success, etc. I don't mind him as the 5th starter.
  10. jmlease1
    Best case scenario is pretty simple: Sands reemerges early in the season to handle high-leverage roles in the 8th & 9th, Taylor Rogers shows he has enough left in the tank to be the primary LHP in higher leverage situations, Topa stays healthy (LOL), and the funnel used to hash out who else fills out the rest of the bullpen shakes out quickly and they're able to settle in some of the converted guys. It can certainly work? I do believe that you're better off building your bullpen this way, rather than spending big on FAs who throw limited innings and often have wide variance year over year. You want to staff up by converting starters with a weapon or two in their arsenal, but not enough to make it as starters (maybe it's because of endurance, not enough quality pitches, etc) and developing guys internally. But the Twins dealt so much from their bullpen last season that they don't have enough certainty from Day 1. They cut so far that no matter the returns (and YMMV on whether they were the right or sufficient ones) you've put yourself in a position where this year is uncertain at best, potentially disastrous at worst. It's fine to be trying to sort and find 1-3 relievers to fill bullpen roles in a year, but we're looking at more like 4-6 (depending on how...charitable people want to be). I think there are some starters that could thrive with a move to the bullpen. I think there are some arms from the minors that have a lot of upside in relief. But I also think it's going to take a while and some success/failure to sort out who they are, and the Cheap Pohlads self-imposed payroll limitations and the front office's choice of risk tolerance have left the team vulnerable in the bullpen.
  11. jmlease1
    Nah, keep trolling people by using "pipeline". The outrage is amusing. Twins have struggled to fill SS on a long-term basis; since Greg Gagne held down the starting job for 8 seasons, we've had only 2 SS with 5+ seasons (Meares, who did it for 5 years, but was only a decent starter like twice and was never a league average hitter; Guzman who got 6 seasons as the starter, despite being shockingly bad getting the job on scholarship as a rookie, having a fluky '01 all-star campaign, but mostly being a below average starter). From 2009 through 2021 we had 8 different starters at SS and only 1 season where they were an average starter by bWAR. (Thanks, Jorge Polanco for that 2019 season) If Culpepper can't make it, we might be looking at the revolving door for another generation. (Houston can do it defensively, but...yikes, I dunno about that bat)
  12. jmlease1
    I'd say his Savant page is pretty irrelevant after only 150 PAs? He's not Kiersey either, who was a speedy defender who never hit like Roden at any stop along the way. If Roden can't actually play CF (he's supposedly fringy there?) then it's a real challenge to find him a spot on this roster until/unless Larnach gets moved out. Slide Larnach off the roster and Roden makes a decent amount of sense in RF (strong arm, better fielder than Wallner) if you wanted to upgrade your defense while still looking for potential hitting upside. regardless, I don't want Outman guaranteed a spot on this roster, even if the team isn't going anywhere. No scholarships, especially for guys that are long shots to rebound. Would much rather see open competition in training camp. Let Roden earn it. Make Outman win it.
  13. jmlease1
    I have concerns about his ability to backup CF, but I'd still rather see him get a shot as the 4th OF than Outman. Time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching or not.
  14. jmlease1
    I doubt anyone is going to get too excited about these, but they're not terrible or anything. I still think they got it wrong on the caps, and wish they'd done an update there: the "M" still looks wrong, and they really should have made the star white and the M red (JMO). It's close to a great cap, so it's annoying that they missed on it.
  15. jmlease1
    I think Charlee Soto still has huge upside and is the sort of guy that gets left off these prospect lists because of injury...and then if he stays healthy the next season rockets back up the charts. But you never know how a kid that young will respond to an injury like that, which is why TINSTAPP exisists. I'm pretty excited to see how Dasan Hill progresses, if he gets stronger, fills out, and adds anything this season. There's huge potential there that should be fun to watch. I like GG quite a bit for his hit tool. KLaw and others seem less impressed, but even if his ceiling is "good regular", I'm not going to be too mad because having another right-handed bat that can really hit would be nice. And considering the way he got into better shape suggests that the people slagging his ability to stay in a corner OF spot suggests they're lagging behind his potential there a bit. I'm less enthusiastic about Marek Houston than most. While his defense is legit (he's a better SS than Brooks Lee right now) I have real concerns about his bat. I expect he starts in Cedar Rapids, and we'll see if he's able to hold up. Hopefully he just wore down from the strain of playing more than he ever had, plus transitioning to professional life, and playing in multiple levels in a single season (all reasonable), but for a college bat he looked very overwhelmed by High A last season. (admittedly, a short sample) He can go a long ways on his defense alone, but if he can't hit then he's a limited utility guy.
  16. jmlease1
    A success? Not really. Not an utter failure or anything, but making the playoffs a couple of times and winning 1 series is a low bar to success. I guess it depends on how you measure it. If success is improvement from where we were, then...I guess? I don't think most people measure sports success that way, even if they're not one of the "win a title or it's a failure" types. I'm not a reflexive Falvey hater, but I think it was time to move on. He did some good things, definitely had some debits, and definitely was part of the senior management crew (including ownership) that had lost a large portion of the fanbase. I just thought they should have done it before hiring a manager, rather than after...
  17. jmlease1
    It is a really interesting question with Matthews. He's got the velocity to be effective with his fastball, but doesn't have the shape for hitters to not catch up to it once they get the timing down, at least not right now. Is that something that can be fixed for him with changes to his grip, arm slot, etc or is that something that simply isn't going to be very fixable? If it's something that offseason adjustments can address, you look at leaving him in the rotation; the changeup could improve with a better fastball to play off of or simply from working more with the pitch, and the slider is definitely a weapon for him. That could easily be a workable mix and he could keep working on a cutter or a sinker as an additional offering. If changing the shape of his fastball is simply not a reasonable expectation, then I guess he'll be finding better success in the bullpen, when no one gets that second look at his fastball (and maybe it ticks up another couple of mph) and he can throw 50% sliders and drive people crazy while he works on the change. I'll admit, I don't know whether or not it's realistic for him to adjust the fastball to give it the kind of movement/deception required to be an effective starter. It's certainly true that you can't overwhelm most MLB hitters with straight gas.
  18. jmlease1
    I do think it's better than 9 years ago; we were desperate for starting pitching back when Falvey started; we had an unproven Berrios, an inconsistent Gibson, and an old Santana and after that it was desperation time with guys like Colon, Meija, etc. Hughes was cooked, and there wasn't a lot in the farm system that were options as starters. (the bullpen had guys however) Looking around now, we have more strength in the MLB rotation and a lot more realistic options in the high minors with more coming along. Not all of them are going to pan out, but there's a lot more realistic options to try and make the leap, players that other teams want in trades, etc. There's also more guys to turn into relievers too. It's not awesome (unless a couple of guys like Matthews, Morris, Festa, Bradley, Abel, or Bradley turn into the next Ober/Ryan/SWR) but it's better, IMHO.
  19. jmlease1
    One of the reasons Morris didn't make those lists is based on age and "projection". Zebby made Baseball America's Top 100 once, pre-2025 after rocketing up the minors (3 levels in one season) in 2024 at age 24. B-Ref doesn't have him on any other prospect rankings (though I'm sure there's more than a few they don't pick up, like ESPN) Festa was picked for the Futures game, so clearly someone thought he was a highly regarded prospect, but wasn't landing on lists either. There's always bias against older players in prospect lists and as long as the Twins continue to focus more on college pitchers in the draft, they're going to be less represented on these lists. it's just reality.
  20. jmlease1
    Sure, but almost every prospect evaluator gives extra credit to age and projection, and the Twins have heavily invested in college starters on their pitching side and when someone like Andrew Morris or Zebby Matthews emerges as a real prospect to become an MLB starter, he's already 22-25 and those guys never make a Top 100 for being "too old". I don't have a BP subscription, but I'd be curious how many starting pitchers are on there that are older than 23 and/or are more than 2 years removed from college? Festa & Morris have never made the list; Morris had a breakout season at 22 in a season he started in High A; Festa was a bit similar in rising at 23. Zebby was last season, but graduated though we'd still see him as a "prospect", Taj Bradley & Mick Abel stopped appearing on lists after their Age 22 season...
  21. jmlease1
    I do agree with basic premise of the article: the poor business decisions of the Twins ownership and the rapidly shifting "planning" screwed whatever blueprint Falvey was trying to complete for the Twins. Signing Correa and Pablo to significant contracts and then taking a hacksaw to the payroll in consecutive seasons while botching the revenue side of things with their failures related to media rights and so on was a screw job. That said, Falvey also didn't give himself any insulation when enough prospects that he drafted or acquired failed to develop or translate into consistent MLB players on the offensive side. He improved the farm system for sure IMHO, especially in terms of the pitching depth and ceiling, but not enough guys made it on the hitting side of the world that it would have been more than fair to move him out in the offseason from a performance metric. Now, even there was some of that not his "fault" precisely? Sure. You can't really blame him for Jose Miranda falling apart after getting beaned, Alex Kirilloff having to retire due to a back injury, Royce Lewis getting 2 ACL tears, and things like that. But while there's still some potential stars in the prospect bin for the Twins on the offense side (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, etc) you're talking about guys that are still either 22 or under or with 2 or fewer years of minor league experience. They've drafted and/or developed a lot of pitching arms that either have promise or made it to MLB, but they also took some risks on injured guys that haven't panned out (yet) and some of those risks left Falvey with less margin for success. Ownership screwed him, but he also made enough bad calls that it's fair to think that a change needed to be made. What's utterly stupid is letting him hire a new manager and then almost immediately firing him. As per usual with the bungling Twins ownership, they did it in the wrong order.
  22. jmlease1
    After 2 successful seasons as a quality starting pitcher, you're dumping Ober into the bullpen after 1 down year where he battled injuries? No more chances, eh? One down season and you're done? Yikes.
  23. jmlease1
    Well, when you lump Bailey Ober in there it seems like you're saying you get one shot and then it's off to the bullpen for you! Why would Bailey Ober be relevant to this discussion?
  24. jmlease1
    well, they're going to need 8-10 starters, realistically, to get through the season. If you move Festa to the bullpen and have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR, and Bradley then there's a reasonable question of whether you're better off having the first man up in AAA be Matthews or Abel, as guys with at least some experience in MLB. Otherwise you're relying on Rojas (no MLB experience, didn't look ready for AAA last season), Morris (had some injury issues, never pitched in MLB), and the rest of the "never pitched an inning in MLB" crew. I think one of them needs to be moved for sure, and Festa seems like the best choice.
  25. jmlease1
    I'll admit, I have have trouble taking arguments seriously that casually dismiss a hitter with a career OPS+ of 127.
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