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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The potential is at least there. Both have shown they can be part of a good bullpen going forward. But they still need more guys this season and to have 2 for next. I think it's ok to have 2-3 spots that are sort of "open for business" going into a season, what with relievers being so fungible much of the time. It's ok to churn through some guys the first 2 months while you figure out which converted starter can thrive as a reliever (like Morris) or cast off can find new life in a different system with a different franchise (Gomez). But if you're serious about competing you have to have more than 2 guys that you can reasonably count on. I think you need a minimum of 4-5 and at least one needs to be a LHP. Morris and Gomez look like success stories to me, but they're not Jax/Duran (and not that close yet; both were guys that had multiple seasons as trusted relievers), and they are not enough.
  2. jmlease1
    I wouldn't deal Houston until I've actually managed to settle the SS position for the MLB club; Kreidler is not a long-term answer. (I mean, never say never: if someone wants to make a massive overpay for him, fine. Cincy wants to hand over Greene straight up? Hard to say no.) Quick is certainly attracting attention, but with the battles he's had in AA, I suspect some of the steam is about clubs trying to get the Twins to sell him too early and steal him away. Despite what many people always think, the Twins aren't stupid and are unlikely to move Quick. Diaw and Mendez on the other hand, are much more tradable assets. I like Diaw, but the Twins have really increased their catching depth (and Diaw may not stick there anyways) and this is where you balance risk-reward with this level of prospect. Same thing applies to Mendez, who is ready for a chance at MLB, but the Twins have a lot of OF prospects/suspects in the same boat. Mendez is a LH corner OF who might need to slide to 1B or DH; he's healthier than Rodriguez or Jenkins, but both of those guys have higher ceilings and actual defensive value. Roden may not have done a lot in MLB yet, but he's outperformed Mendez in AAA. Twins can certainly move a LH corner OF.
  3. jmlease1
    went 2-4 on sunday with an absolute rocket of a homer and 2 walks. But you've already made up your mind on him.
  4. jmlease1
    Houston is having a terrific season, probably about as good as we could have dreamed for him at this point. If he can finish out the season strong, there's a real chance he starts the year in Saint Paul next season which is pretty much ideal. The fact that he's continuing to show this kind of pop in his bat while still making such consistent contact is outstanding; I don't need him to be a 20+ homer guy (not with that defense for sure), but if he's able to show that he can be a consistent 10-15 homer guy with 25-30 doubles...that's a guy that won't get pushed around at the plate. Nice to see Lackey get his first hit. Poor guy has also gotten plunked twice in 3 games! He's not having any trouble getting on base so far, looking forward to seeing how the bat shapes up early. (I think he's going to be fine, but it would be good for him to rip a few early, just to keep people from panicking) Quick is getting a bit of an education at AA. I still like his stuff and think he's going to be fine, but he needs innings and time to get that experience of how to pitch. He's really got very few innings under his belt, in either college or as a pro and you can see a little of that when his pitches. I think the upside is still excellent there.
  5. jmlease1
    You have to give up something to get something. In this case I don't mind the price. It's not a trade that either team should hate or their fans be mad about. Dropping Minter saves the Mets a lot of money, but they weren't going to get a lot for him, even if they ate more salary. He's a reliever on an expiring with an injury history. Neither prospect is particularly impressive, but there's a chance to make them work and add depth to their system. Bruin is a lottery ticket, but sometimes those play out. Billy is flawed, but could develop late and do something. Mets fans might have hoped for more (and will hate the cost savings aspect, much like Twins fans get mad when we overpay to have the other team eat salary) but not a lot more. Twins fans should like getting a proven, quality reliever without giving up a significant prospect. A reasonable trade. No one robbed the other.
  6. jmlease1
    Huge bummer for Festa. I was convinced going into the season that all of the hopeful predictions were incredibly premature and overly optimistic. I do not relish being proven right. Really unfortunate that not only will we not see him for the Twins this season, but 2027 has to be in serious doubt, and frankly so does his professional career. Hope things improve for the Slim Reaper, and I am absolutely rooting for him. Really unfortunate. Disappointing end to the season for Sands, but the fact that the ligament is intact should be a good sign. Still hopeful that he's a part of the bullpen in 2027, and with two of the stupidest and most arrogant parties known to man negotiating the CBA, there's a real likelihood that the start of the next season will be delayed at the very least. More recovery time? Really hope the injection is effective in combating the hip problem for Buck. I love watching him play, but when that hip is causing him problems, he's not the same guy. So far the team is holding it together through the deadline and making them buyers, so hopefully we see him in mid-August feeling good and ready for the stretch run.
  7. jmlease1
    Between the new rules and the lack of focus on holding runners made in the minors (it's pretty reasonable to think it doesn't matter how well they hold a runner on if they can't find the plate), it's a good reason to not take stolen base rates too seriously in the minors, especially the low minors, nor get too hung up on a catcher's CS rate. The A-ball stats really tell you nothing. Don't think it says anything about Lackey.
  8. jmlease1
    Love seeing the new draftees get assignments and start playing out the rest of the season. Should be fun to see how some of these guys fit in. Lackey will be the obvious choice to watch, but I have trouble believing he's going to fail the "lemon test" that Gleeman likes to call these early samples. Lots of hitters got on via HPB yesterday! Life in the minors facing guys whose control is...marginal. Hope everyone is feeling ok afterwards. I have a hunch that Culpepper gets promoted after the trade deadline, unless he puts up a lot more 3K days in the interim, but it's just a guess. Harder to know what happens in the OF. I feel like they'd love to get Rodriguez up if possible, especially considering he'll be out of options next year, but he's missed so much time that it might not be realistic.
  9. jmlease1
    Historically, he's run better against LH (as you would expect) but has always been more than solid against RH. I'm guessing they're not weighting this year's splits too heavily since it's such a small sample. Have to wonder if the Twins will be able to help him find a few more mph with the 4-seamer, since it's been something they've had success with in the organization, or if it's too late in the year. But I think he fits in well in the back end of the bullpen. I'm also expecting a lot of sturm & drang if he has even one bad outing in the first 2 weeks from arrival, so hopefully he's ready for that nonsense.
  10. jmlease1
    It's a good trade. I liked Amick, but he's got real contact problems and might end up as a 1B/DH assuming he can hit enough. Which is questionable with his contact rates. It's not a particularly high price and this gives us what should be a reliable, high quality LH option for the late innings who doesn't get murdered by RH hitters historically (he's gotten tee'd off on a bit this year, but it's a small sample). A good move, IMHO, and a good start. Get us in a similar quality RHP for late-inning relief for a similar price and I'll feel even better. Good use of depth assets.
  11. jmlease1
    He's worth it this year; he's been able to stay healthy and has been able to be a good 2B, and he's also hit LHP for basically the first time in his career. The question is how many of those things will continue. We know his knees are bad, we know his defense hasn't always been good, and we know that historically he can't hit LHP. SF should trade him; he's on an expiring and you basically couldn't sell any higher than this...but buyer beware. And I say this as someone who likes Arraez.
  12. jmlease1
    not putting Lackey on that list? He'd be damn near untouchable for me.
  13. jmlease1
    It's an excellent win, and an important one. They got done what they needed to on the homestand (a sweep would have been nice, but as long as they keep winning series they are in this thing). Be nice if they could have done it the easy way, but you don't get extra points for piling up early runs. Maybe this gets the offense going, though. It's been looking frustrating as hell out there lately for the good guys at the plate.
  14. jmlease1
    I'd like to see a LHP who isn't cooked, a RH set-up guy (I'd rather get a guy that can be a good set-up man than pay a premium for someone who just happened to get tapped to pitch the 9th inning a lot) and wouldn't mind one more RHP with some velocity. Rogers is getting by on guts and guile, Funderburk has been poor, so we need a LHP. Gomez may be getting lucky, but I'll ride the luck. Morris is looking like a real guy in the 'pen. Nance seems fine. Adams is worth working with. But we need 2 more for sure, and Rojas is probably more of a bulk guy right now with the rotation thin too.
  15. jmlease1
    A real shame. I thought Sands was a good fit to close games or serve as a set-up man and losing him made a thin bullpen quite a bit weaker. Hope he recovers fully and can get his career back on track. The "rest & rehab" methodology hasn't panned out very well, and while I can certainly understand the desire to avoid surgery (even taking the competitive aspect out, it's almost always better to avoid cutting cut if you can) there may need to be some re-evaluation if surgery keeps ending up as the eventual answer all along.
  16. jmlease1
    Twins fans remain obsessed with Arraez. Listen, I'm happy for him that he's playing well this year, but he was not particularly good the previous 2, and has neutral platoon splits for the very first time in his career (anyone else thinking that's not going to stick?). Would I rather have him in the infield than Tristan Gray? Sure, but I would be reluctant to give up much for him because of his limitations. I'm certainly not sending any of our top prospects for an infield rental, especially when the need is much greater in the bullpen.
  17. jmlease1
    I think there's a real possibility the twins deal a catcher before the deadline; the system is as healthy as it's ever been with prospects at the position (Lackey, Tait, Diaw, and Jimenez) along with the 3 in MLB, but it's really hard to predict which one might go? I'd be happy to keep Jeffers and worry about him being a free agent after the season and try and go for a playoff run, but the Twins might get blown away by an offer, and Caratini & Jackson have held up when Jeffers was gone. If they keep Jeffers, I kind of feel like the most likely to go is Jackson, which won't bring a lot in return, but would be better than carrying three catchers down the stretch or losing him on waivers. I just don't see a team like the Yankees offering much for Caratini; they're more likely to want a rental rather than take on his 2027 salary so I have to wonder if the return on Jackson would be similar to what we'd get for Caratini; I certainly don't want to eat any of Caratini's 2027 salary! But since the Twins are looking to be buyers it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Diaw was part of a trade deal either. I think Tait is more likely to stay: while his value should be high, I think the Twins are going to be more modest buyers and unlikely to give up a top 100 prospect for a rental reliever.
  18. jmlease1
    How many games does Kaelen Culpepper need to play before the Twins decide he's ready and recovered from his injury? He's got 5 in and looks pretty good. Is it 7? 10? More? Or is it just about getting past the trade deadline before calling him up? Because he sure seems like a better fit than running Tristan Gray back. And much as I want to see Walker Jenkins up in MLB, I want to see Emma even more. But there's simply no way they bring him straight from a rehab assignment in A-ball to MLB. Tait has been doing well lately; following up a very good June with a solid July works for me. Going to be very interesting to see how the Twins handle him going forward, and whether they see him more as a trade asset now that they have Lackey on board. As someone who doesn't think you can ever have too much catching, I'd need to be blown away to include him in a deal, but YMMV. Diaw still hitting well and still catching most of the time in Wichita too. Quite the bundle of riches we now have at the position...
  19. jmlease1
    Well, Rodriguez would have been up long ago but dude keeps getting hurt. I doubt they're going to skip his rehab assignments and put him in MLB having barely swung a bat for a couple of months. But I hear ya.
  20. jmlease1
    Quentin Young is one of the most boom or bust prospects I think we've seen in a while. When he connects he can really make the ball fly. When he's on a bit of a roll, he can look really good at the plate. But there's no consistency yet and it might take a while if it ever gets there. (and oof, the defense.) Going to be a fascinating prospect to watch and see if he develops. I don't mind that they took a flier on his tools, despite my skepticism on him as a prospect; if you don't take some chances in the draft from time to time, you limit your upside. He's still very young and this is only his first full professional season. Going to be very interesting to see what they do if Buxton needs to go back on the IL; could it be Walker Jenkins time? He's been good and very steady with an approach that should play, and he could cover in CF without much trouble. But he hasn't dominated either, and he's not on the 40-man yet. Heh. Let's get people mad: the more obvious choice for promotion is actually Matt Wallner, who has been substantially better at the plate, is already on the 40-man, and would increase his trade value if he popped back up in MLB and had a couple of good games before the deadline. *runs away*
  21. jmlease1
    Would have been a super frustrating loss: Bradley pitched quite well, the bullpen did the job, but the offense wasn't holding up their end. It's not a very good KC team, even if they've been on a bit of a hot streak. Of course, they still have Sal Perez, who could be riding an 0-46 streak, and I'll still assume that he's going to nail the Twins in some fashion. Can't wait for him to retire. 5 DPs. That's just brutal. normally 10 hits and 4 walks will generate more than 3 runs. Nice to see Royce come in and walk it off, though. Been a tough year for Royce and you like to see him come up big in a key moment. Really needed this win. Want to see a sweep, but will settle for a series win. I really want the Twins to be buyers and not sellers this deadline, and this was a key game for that goal.
  22. jmlease1
    Yeah, that surprised me too. It was a small sample, but Rosario was making lots of contact and controlling the zone pretty effectively, even if there wasn't as much of his usual power in AAA yet. Bit surprised to see him only get a few weeks and then pushed back down. Not sure we learn much more about him in Wichita. He's no longer a significant prospect, but he does have some qualities.
  23. jmlease1
    Houston is doing great in AA so far, but it's still only 105 ABs. Moving him up to AAA for an extra month or so won't make a ton of a difference to his development, not really going to fret if he spends most or all of the rest of the season in Wichita. If he's positioned himself to be starting at AAA next season he'll be in a great spot. Right now the big hurdle for him to clear is to show he can handle the grind of a full professional season and not get ground down in the dog days. Have to be happy with what we're seeing this year, so far he's answering the questions about his bat. Winokur is off to a very nice start at AA. If he's able to find consistency, that bat could be special. Maybe all the tools are starting to come together. Pretty good at only 21 in AA. Wallner is a bit stuck, and so are the Twins with him. He's got himself back into a groove and should be called back up...but who does he replace? They simply don't need another LH bat who adds nothing on D. He's ripe for a trade, but what do you get for a guy his age who is beating up on AAA pitching but shown a history of extended slumps in MLB? He's a platoon DH at this point who can stand out in RF. Very happy to see Culpepper back. Can't wait for him to get a few more games under him at AAA and get his long-awaited call up to MLB, which I expect will happen around the trade deadline once the Twins catching situation is resolved and a roster spot opens up.
  24. jmlease1
    Isn't the reality that injuries mostly erased Lewis' value and his inability to produce after getting healthy the last couple of seasons wiped out the rest of it? This isn't about the Twins not valuing his skills or athleticism, it's about injuries robbing him of both and him not being able to produce consistently without them. He had a very good run after his minor league re-set...and is now struggling at the plate again. He no longer has the speed and quickness to play SS, and his scattershot arm has made it necessary to have a strong 1B to bail him out. He looks like he could be a quality 1B, so it makes sense to let him give it a go there, but if he can't pull out of this latest slump, none of it matters. And it's really not on the Twins at this point for his lack of hitting. Systemic stupidity? Hardly. Injuries wrecked him and he hasn't been able to find a way with less athleticism in his arsenal. Let's not pretend Royce Lewis is still the super fast, super athletic guy from 2022.
  25. jmlease1
    Miller is still a poor hitter: The .745 OPS (as of today) may be a career best, but the team OPS is .821. The PCL is a hitter's league. If Kaelen Culpepper were putting up that kind of OPS in Saint Paul we'd be all thinking he's in a real trouble and not going to hit in MLB. Miller will likely make it as a utility guy because of the glove, but Houston is already looking like he has more potential to be a complete player and be a starting SS.
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