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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Well, that's the thing: relievers that have a proven consistent track record aren't available as often and if they are, they are going to cost quite a bit. Lawrence was excellent in limited exposure with the Pirates in 2025 and was a quality reliever for Colorado in 2023. It's not unreasonable to look at a guy like that, who has struggled mightily in 2026 and think that maybe with a couple of adjustments (like the Twins made with Gomez) and maybe he can start hitting the strike zone enough to be useful. Didn't happen, so you move on. But this is the way a "churn & burn" strategy works in MLB and teams like Tampa Bay have had a lot of success with it. Would it be nice if the Twins could be more targeted about it and have fewer flameouts like Lawrence? Sure, but baseball is hard.
  2. jmlease1
    Excellent. Some of these experiments aren't going to work, and he was one of them. Can't hold on to them and hope, need to move on. He showed last night that he simply has no idea where the ball is going. Worth a look because of the stuff, but they weren't able to get him on track quickly like they did with Gomez. Will not miss Lawrence. Excellent night for the offense though! Ripping hits all over the place. Always fun seeing a couple of triples, and the Buck Bomb was a no doubter. Bradley did the job, hopefully he's starting to find his form again. The stuff looks great, just need to drop those uncompetitive pitches out of the mix and get a feel for his split more consistently and he should be good. That fastball-cutter combo will get a lot of outs. Lee is heating up and that's nice to see. He's been finding his power stroke without piling up tons of Ks. Keaschall looking much more like the hitter we saw last season; still not as much pop in the bat, but what we've seen over the last 6 weeks will do nicely. Go win the series! Arizona is a solid team and the NL is much better than the AL this season.
  3. jmlease1
    I am glad you are not running the Twins. That's a disgustingly low trade package for an all-star pitcher with another year of team control pending. Valdez might end up being good (struggling so far in his time in MLB) but far from a sure thing. and De Los Santos might be great, but teenagers are big risk. I'd think we could do much better for Ryan, not that the Pirates are likely to trade for a guy who will cost a ton in arbitration next season and will not be a guarantee of staying at all...
  4. jmlease1
    A lot of bullpen trades involve small sample size pitchers...because they're bullpen guys. They don't pile up huge innings; a guy who throws 70 innings in a season is considered a lot, but 2 bad blowups out of 60 appearances in the year can warp their stats. If Gomez continues to have success with the Twins leading up to the trade deadline, there will be people interested in him...especially if they think they can get him cheap. Other orgs will look at the mechanical changes and adjustments to pitch mix and make decisions about whether they think it's sustainable or not, just like the Twins do. (the rest of baseball does not hold Falvey in the same kind of contempt that most of Twins Daily does, either, but whatever.) I wouldn't look to move Gomez at the deadline, because we need to rebuild the bullpen. He is looking like he could be a guy, and Morris has been showing that he could get there too. But you need 4-5 guys you can count on going into a season, not 2. He'll be cheap even as a Super 2 and there's no need to move on from him unless you get some insane offer...which almost certainly won't happen. The guys that are likely to get dealt at the deadline are Ryan (high value, getting expensive), Jeffers (effective at a need position, almost out of team control), and Larnach (getting expensive, useful platoon bat). Not Gomez, who is more valuable to the Twins than trading him. The Varland trade was definitely the worst move the Twins made, even with Rojas having a lot of talent. We needed Varland and there was no real reason to move him other than a supposed "value" proposition on a trade sheet. Moving Gomez wouldn't bring the same value, we need this version of Gomez just as much, and there's really no pressure to move him. If he were running out of team control...sure? But he's not. Would be a weird move for the Twins unless someone really made an insane offer.
  5. jmlease1
    so sell low? :P I like seeing the twins get a sweep. It's nice. The trade talk is annoying; the deadline is still over a month away and we're not even at the all-star break yet. With the team being 1.5 games out of a wild card there's no point in getting too spun up about trades because they're not happening yet. I'd think that with some guys playing well and other guys getting health there would be more interesting things to talk about than speculating on something that won't have any chance of happening for another month. (Also? Good for you Byron Buxton in shutting down trade speculation. I love the fact that he wants to be here.)
  6. jmlease1
    Houston is showing out as a much better hitter than Miller. Noah Miller had 2 stints in High A: Cedar Rapids, where he put up an OPS of .648 and Great Lakes with the Dodger org where he put up an OPS of .668. To be fair to Miller, he did that at 20 and 21, but Miller's bat has never been good at any level. He's currently putting up a .716 OPS in AAA, but for a little context the team as a whole has an OPS of .821 and the PCL is definitely something of a hitter's league. So far Houston is showing up quite a bit better as a hitter, but again as an older player. I think it's part of why we'd like to see him at AA sooner rather than later...
  7. jmlease1
    Morris makes sense as a reliever, and with some experience should be able to adjust his offerings to a mix that will be impactful on a more consistent basis. He's got the velocity to do some things, and the potential is there. He was unlikely to make it as anything more than a 5th starter/swingman, so this looks like a better fit, and it's nice to have a high velocity reliever back there (finally). He's not there yet, but you can see the vision. Now...who else is going to get tapped for this? They need at least 2 more internally.
  8. jmlease1
    Add me to the chorus of people clamoring for Houston to get moved up. I think we've seen enough of him against A-ball pitchers; time for a new challenge! Really impressed with how he's done so far this year, was worried that he could be another Noah Miller: all glove, no bat. Now, he's 22 and had 3 seasons of college ball so he should be able to hit A-ball pitching. But should doesn't mean will. He's done the job. Looking forward to seeing if he can keep hitting in AA. Diaw had a very nice debut. Glad to see him in AA. I'm not worried about Quick; he's pitched so little in his career that just seeing him navigate his way through a full season of pro ball with decent success and strong peripherals is enough for me. I think he'll be fine and this is a good place for him to build up endurance and refine his pitches. Good news that Rojas is starting a rehab assignment; nice to be seeing some decent health news for once!
  9. jmlease1
    Or he's fully healthy and not trying to protect a turf toe injury any longer?
  10. jmlease1
    I think it depends on whether Keaschall just has a terrible arm or if it's injury-related. Does he still need more time to build up strength in his arm and work on his throwing, or is this as good as it's going to get? I don't know the answer to that (and neither does anyone on this board, frankly). A good arm is a benefit at every position, so wherever he plays it could be a deficit. We saw what a bonus it was to have Correa's arm at SS. You need to have an arm to play 3B to make those long throws and get it to the 1B with some accuracy. It's a benefit at 2B to turning DPs. It's a benefit at 1B to turn the DP. A weak arm will be a deficit at every position. The question is whether or not Keaschall can be passable with his arm. Don't know. In terms of range and glove, I think Keaschall can be just fine; he's got the speed and quickness and more reps will help even out the mistakes and let him react rather than think about it. (you can definitely see some of the plays where he's thinking about it and it goes sideways) Should Royce get some time at 2B? Maybe...just to get his bat in there more? But frankly, Royce's bat and glove play better at 1B than 2B, and 10 games into any stint he plays at 2B I suspect people will be complaining about him there too. Considering how much better Royce has looked since coming back up and how much of a confidence player he is...do we really want to mess with that? I think more important than moving Keaschall off 2B is moving Gray off SS and getting Culpepper up in the mix. I'll worry more about Keaschall in a month.
  11. jmlease1
    Next season might be a bridge year of Caratini and Jackson. Diaw did just move up, but I wouldn't expect him to go from AA to MLB, though I do like his bat. Tait has huge potential, but I expect him to be in AA in 2027. And maybe we'll be drafting Lackey. Short-term catching looks a little wobbly if Jeffers goes. Long term? There's more depth and upside in that department than we've seen in a while, and it becomes a real strength if we get Lackey. (particularly interesting if there's a lockout for a big chunk of 2027, which the owners and players are both greedy and stupid enough to do. Mostly the owners, who are always the greediest and stupidest. Neither cares about the fans.) Some good days on the farm. Glad to see Jenkins playing, hope he's back in Saint Paul soon. Even better seeing Abel looking good; I expect he'll be back in MN soon and the rotation needs him (though it's battled through lately). I've been so impressed with Abel, so here's hoping for good health the rest of the season. Bit of a weird season for GG; slow start, got a cup of coffee in MLB (and did very well in his 1 appearance) and has seen his power production come and go all year. Maybe he's getting his footing a little better? Not unhappy about him getting time at 1B either. Amick's power is for real; that .507 SLG% is no joke even in Wichita, but people are going to hate his low BA and piles of K's. Weirdly bad against LHP this season? It's not a huge sample, and it wasn't an issue last season, so seems a bit fluky, but he's been absolutely dreadful against LHP and it's dragging his overall stats down. Think he's destined for 1B eventually, but I'm still ok with him splitting time at 3B/1B. He's not awful there, but could be pretty good at 1B. Be interesting to see how he finishes the season.
  12. jmlease1
    The bats were cooking for sure, and Zebby did a good job chewing up the innings with the big lead. A nice win. Boy Trevor Plouffe really did not like the Rangers surrender mode last night and tossing out a pitcher who couldn't even register on the speed gun. That guy wasn't even throwing BP speed, more like an Eephus.
  13. jmlease1
    It's also A-ball, where pitchers notoriously don't hold runners on. But yes, he may not stick at catcher. But pretty intriguing to see a guy who can work behind the plate and play a credible CF. Rosario has 2 issues: he's a poor defender (haven't seen much indication that he's improved) and his contact is suspect. The power production is impressive and he controls the strike zone well enough to get on base at a fine clip...but those low BA's at this level are a danger sign that he simply swings and misses too much. But you never know. He's probably organizational depth rather than a real prospect, but seems like he should get moved up to AAA as soon as they start calling up some of the other OF ahead of him (Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, and Jenkins now that Fedko is getting a look).
  14. jmlease1
    Really happy to see Diaw get a promotion. He's definitely earned it, and I'm eager to see how he does against higher level competition. I will also be interested to see him catch AA pitchers and will be watching a bit to see what his PT splits look like. He's a fun prospect. Maybe Wichita will start to put up some more consistent offense with the recent promotions! Anyone know what's going on with DeBarge? (other than him not hitting well)
  15. jmlease1
    My expectations are minimal. But I'll root for them all.
  16. jmlease1
    I think it's also misunderstanding how a lot of fans feels about Fedko. Few if any are projecting him to even be a starting quality player...but we're rooting for him. I doubt anyone here sees him as a savior and long-time contributor to the MLB club...but we're rooting for the dude, who seems like a good guy who has worked and grinded his way up. For most "Fans of Fedko", I think they'd rather give chances to guys we haven't seen and might do something with a chip, a chair, and a chance in what was always going to be something of rebuilding year, rather than waste too much time with players like Outman or Arcia. If we're losing anyways, why not find out what you have and don't have with players who at least theoretically could be sticking around...
  17. jmlease1
    I don't think there's much evidence that the Falvey Era had pre-determined promotions any more (or less) than you saw under Ryan or Smith
  18. jmlease1
    eh. it's more about the injuries than anything else. If he can't play, he's less appealing as a prospect. It's not like this is a one-time thing.
  19. jmlease1
    There's going to be some interesting decisions on who gets promoted from Cedar Rapids in the next few weeks (I would assume that there will at least be some guys moving up soon, or when they reach the first half break). Diaw, Houston, and maybe Winokur? (congrats to McDaniel for already moving up) Tough break for Winokur with the 0-7; he had a great May. Hope he doesn't backslide in June, consistency could be what keeps him in Iowa longer. Houston is doing a great job of showing that I was too fearful about his bat. Hope he does all he can to make me sound like a fool for doubting his ability as a hitter! He definitely should be getting a promotion to AA, IMHO. Diaw too.
  20. jmlease1
    I dunno. It made a certain amount of sense at the time, presuming that we could get the Bell from the second half of last season he'd add some hitting the team needed. But he's been hot & cold with more cold than hot. Would we have been better off spending that money on a decent back-end reliever? Yes. But I'm also someone who would have rather seen them cycle through AAA hitters (including Fedko) and find out what we have there, not that Bell couldn't have been a decent add. It's more about where I always saw this team sitting and the need to give time to guys who might have a future than what I thought of Bell. But AAA guys often struggle when they get to MLB; it's a damn hard leap. I guess I look at it as having been the wrong choice rather than a stupid one. Stupid goes a little too far for me.
  21. jmlease1
    I think the article has it right: Fedko is going to start against LHP, most consistently in the OF, though it's possible based on matchups, injuries, or rest needs he'll get some time at 1B or DH. I expect they'll give him some time in CF (Clemens is as stretched there as Fedko would be, and they'll want to see how he does) and they'll certainly reduce Larnach and Clemens exposure to LHP this way. He'll definitely get some PH/PR opportunities, especially with OF/1B/DH guys, since it'll only require 1 move and he might even get some defensive replacement innings if the Twins have a lead and someone like Larnach is hanging out in LF. It'll definitely be more of a role than Outman had, and I think we'll see much less Kreidler in the OF (which is fine, even if he's a more than credible CF). Putting Kreidler on the dirt consistently where they need more help defensively won't hurt anything. The question will be whether or not he'll hit. Here's hoping he does, especially against LHP. Next issue: when do we see Culpepper? Kind of feels like they're waiting a bit longer to see if they need to send Keaschall down for a re-set, otherwise I think Gray will drop some time in the next month. The more I think about it, the more I like this move with Fedko. It should send a message to the rest of the team that MLB jobs aren't guaranteed and there are players in the minors who will come for them...
  22. jmlease1
    Can I introduce you to May 2026? Keaschall did well. He's backslid a bit in June (not a black hole, but not good) but his May was kinda the hitter we thought he'd be. 23 games played in May, OPS of .790 But this is more about Fedko, which...congrats! I don't know that he's going to be good: the jump to MLB is the toughest step. But dude has earned a chance. He should be able to hit LHP, he's got enough glove to play all 3 OF positions, can play 1B in a pinch, and should be a good baserunner. Martin unfortunately has been showing that he probably can't be a regular (I do think they did him no favors by sticking him in RF, where his best attribute as a fielder (speed) doesn't play up as much, and his worst attribute (arm) does, but playing in LF wouldn't likely change how much he's struggled at the plate lately). Maybe Fedko shows he can be a 4th OF and cover some of those LF hitting corner OF guys we have in AAA that might one day again be healthy. More importantly, I'm happy to see that production earned him a chance, even if it was clear he was not in their plans and wasn't seen as a significant prospect. Much rather see him on the roster than Arcia, who has no future here at all.
  23. jmlease1
    You do not want to be in the same conversation as Scott Aldred.
  24. jmlease1
    I like seeing the offense continue to battle? I like seeing Royce being a key contributor? I don't like seeing the bullpen be so crap. That said, I do think Morris has a future in the bullpen.
  25. jmlease1
    I'd keep Kreidler of the three; the defense historically has been quite good, he can play a very credible CF to go with the infield, and while I don't expect the offense to be great, he can at least run into a homer from time to time. But it's predicated on calling up Culpepper. When they're ready to bring him up, I'd send Gray down. At some point I'd move on from Arcia for one of our OF down in AAA.
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