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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I don't think there's much evidence that the Falvey Era had pre-determined promotions any more (or less) than you saw under Ryan or Smith
  2. jmlease1
    eh. it's more about the injuries than anything else. If he can't play, he's less appealing as a prospect. It's not like this is a one-time thing.
  3. jmlease1
    There's going to be some interesting decisions on who gets promoted from Cedar Rapids in the next few weeks (I would assume that there will at least be some guys moving up soon, or when they reach the first half break). Diaw, Houston, and maybe Winokur? (congrats to McDaniel for already moving up) Tough break for Winokur with the 0-7; he had a great May. Hope he doesn't backslide in June, consistency could be what keeps him in Iowa longer. Houston is doing a great job of showing that I was too fearful about his bat. Hope he does all he can to make me sound like a fool for doubting his ability as a hitter! He definitely should be getting a promotion to AA, IMHO. Diaw too.
  4. jmlease1
    I dunno. It made a certain amount of sense at the time, presuming that we could get the Bell from the second half of last season he'd add some hitting the team needed. But he's been hot & cold with more cold than hot. Would we have been better off spending that money on a decent back-end reliever? Yes. But I'm also someone who would have rather seen them cycle through AAA hitters (including Fedko) and find out what we have there, not that Bell couldn't have been a decent add. It's more about where I always saw this team sitting and the need to give time to guys who might have a future than what I thought of Bell. But AAA guys often struggle when they get to MLB; it's a damn hard leap. I guess I look at it as having been the wrong choice rather than a stupid one. Stupid goes a little too far for me.
  5. jmlease1
    I think the article has it right: Fedko is going to start against LHP, most consistently in the OF, though it's possible based on matchups, injuries, or rest needs he'll get some time at 1B or DH. I expect they'll give him some time in CF (Clemens is as stretched there as Fedko would be, and they'll want to see how he does) and they'll certainly reduce Larnach and Clemens exposure to LHP this way. He'll definitely get some PH/PR opportunities, especially with OF/1B/DH guys, since it'll only require 1 move and he might even get some defensive replacement innings if the Twins have a lead and someone like Larnach is hanging out in LF. It'll definitely be more of a role than Outman had, and I think we'll see much less Kreidler in the OF (which is fine, even if he's a more than credible CF). Putting Kreidler on the dirt consistently where they need more help defensively won't hurt anything. The question will be whether or not he'll hit. Here's hoping he does, especially against LHP. Next issue: when do we see Culpepper? Kind of feels like they're waiting a bit longer to see if they need to send Keaschall down for a re-set, otherwise I think Gray will drop some time in the next month. The more I think about it, the more I like this move with Fedko. It should send a message to the rest of the team that MLB jobs aren't guaranteed and there are players in the minors who will come for them...
  6. jmlease1
    Can I introduce you to May 2026? Keaschall did well. He's backslid a bit in June (not a black hole, but not good) but his May was kinda the hitter we thought he'd be. 23 games played in May, OPS of .790 But this is more about Fedko, which...congrats! I don't know that he's going to be good: the jump to MLB is the toughest step. But dude has earned a chance. He should be able to hit LHP, he's got enough glove to play all 3 OF positions, can play 1B in a pinch, and should be a good baserunner. Martin unfortunately has been showing that he probably can't be a regular (I do think they did him no favors by sticking him in RF, where his best attribute as a fielder (speed) doesn't play up as much, and his worst attribute (arm) does, but playing in LF wouldn't likely change how much he's struggled at the plate lately). Maybe Fedko shows he can be a 4th OF and cover some of those LF hitting corner OF guys we have in AAA that might one day again be healthy. More importantly, I'm happy to see that production earned him a chance, even if it was clear he was not in their plans and wasn't seen as a significant prospect. Much rather see him on the roster than Arcia, who has no future here at all.
  7. jmlease1
    You do not want to be in the same conversation as Scott Aldred.
  8. jmlease1
    I like seeing the offense continue to battle? I like seeing Royce being a key contributor? I don't like seeing the bullpen be so crap. That said, I do think Morris has a future in the bullpen.
  9. jmlease1
    I'd keep Kreidler of the three; the defense historically has been quite good, he can play a very credible CF to go with the infield, and while I don't expect the offense to be great, he can at least run into a homer from time to time. But it's predicated on calling up Culpepper. When they're ready to bring him up, I'd send Gray down. At some point I'd move on from Arcia for one of our OF down in AAA.
  10. jmlease1
    Really happy to see Soto back on the mound. Don't really care about the results right now, just want to see him healthy and throwing. I'm liking what we're seeing out of Diaw. He really seems to be positioning himself for a callup to AA, and boy could they use his bat in Wichita. Plus, his picture at B-Ref makes him look like he's about 14 which I find hilarious. Quick's stuff still looks great; he's still got some work to do in learning how to pitch, but the upside on him is pretty dang good, IMHO. Not a bad outing, he's just had some really dominant ones that expectations are high. I'm happy to see him getting innings.
  11. jmlease1
    Maybe he was the TD's consensus pick for top pitching prospect, but he wasn't mine. It's concerning I guess, it's not good, and you'd always prefer that he be destroying high A rather than vacillating between loading up the bases and striking everyone out, but he's still young and inexperienced and we're only in June. I'm more concerned about Soto's inability to get on the field, TBH.
  12. jmlease1
    predicating a "regression" for Keaschall based on his June results is a bit silly on June 11. Keaschall had a bad start to the season, hit pretty well in May, and has been wobbly all year on D. If he struggles at plate all June, maybe you send him down for a re-set, but if he gets on a heater for a week he's back to making good progress at the plate, so feels like a hasty judgment right now. There's better choices to send out if Culpepper gets called up (I'm pretty bored with the Tristan Gray Experience, and the Arcia innings aren't exactly doing much for me either; certainly neither has an impactful future with the Twins) I'd hoped for better from Keaschall so far, but let's give him a little more time to succeed or fail, eh?
  13. jmlease1
    Eh. He's 20 years old in High A. Development is not linear, and the only reason to "worry" is because he got hyped a little too much too fast based on on some nifty peripherals and good work in 2025 in Ft. Myers. Maybe this stretch of struggles will be the best thing for him as he'll stop being looked at as too high a prospect based on projection and can go back to just being a developmental arm with promise. It hasn't been a good season at all for him, but we're supposed to worry about less than half a season in High A for a dude who's 20? Maybe I'll worry in October.
  14. jmlease1
    It would be great if Abel is fully recovered and ready to roll again. he looked really good before getting hurt, and it's nice to see him have a fine rehab start. Must be a bit frustrating for guys like Fedko & Sabato to be playing so well and know that they don't have much chance of getting called up. But both guys put themselves on the periphery of the Twins plans in previous seasons through their own (lack of) production at various times, so hopefully they can handle the wait. Maybe some summer/deadline moves will open the gates to give some of these guys a shot. The one thing I don't want to see if there's any kind of sell-off is to be adding veteran cast-offs to fill in late.
  15. jmlease1
    Keep in mind, Culpepper was drafted by the Previous Regime (Who Shall Not Be Named); often seems like there are people around here who actively root against prospects from that governance, that's how deep the hate goes. And of course, since a minority of prospects work out, it's easy to call people suckers for looking hopefully to the next big thing and then go "see! I told you they sucked!" if they don't become an immediate star... I dunno if there's any more pressure on Culpepper than any other highly touted prospect; I think he could be very impactful if he comes up and can field well at SS and hit, but I dunno that he's being seen as a savior any more than any other prospect that looks very promising. I think the time is getting close on calling him up, though, and I'm looking forward to it. It might put a charge into the team and fanbase (even if some people already seem to be rooting for him to fail) and it would be fun to see the vision of an infield with him at the head. I'm rooting for Culpepper, who has done damn near everything you could possibly ask for a prospect to date. He was in High A in his draft season at 21 after crushing it in Low A for a couple of weeks. He's never spent more than about half a season at any level in the minors before getting a promotion. He's looking at debuting in MLB in his 2nd full pro season. Not bad for the 21st pick. Looking forward to seeing him at Target Field sooner rather than later.
  16. jmlease1
    He seems to have the ability to stick at catcher; part of the reason he's only splitting time there is he's on the same team as Tait (who also needs the developmental time) and I think the Twins are careful not to hammer their catching prospects with too much of a load. The fact that he's playing so much CF as his second position says a lot about his athletic ability. Whether or not he's a future MLB player or not...well, he's still in A-ball so who knows? I'm not going to start predicting Diaw is the next Biggio or anything, but he's showing something so far. I'm hoping he gets moved up to AA soon and gets more of a challenge.
  17. jmlease1
    It's a pretty even split between CF and C right now, so I really don't think we have to worry about him being "another DH type". Diaw seems to be lining himself up for a promotion to Wichita, who could use his bat. Not an exciting day for the prospects down on the farm, but it goes like that some days.
  18. jmlease1
    Sure, but a lot of A-ball guys never really go anywhere either, drafted or no. You'll have guys like that on the college rosters who figure out they're not going pro (or if they do they'll have to really scrabble in the low minors for little money when they're already in their 20's) while they're playing in college. It's sort of how you'll get someone playing DII who people talk about as being good enough to play D1; they might be good enough to make the level, but are they really going to play a lot? Or get a scholarship? But in D2 they might start 3-4 years, get a scholarship, and have a great time while getting their degree. There's a lot of factors. It's reasonable to think that the level of competition in a Power 5 D1 conference to be somewhere between low A and high A.
  19. jmlease1
    Cossetti looks more like organizational depth to me, but he'll probably get a shot in AAA next season as long as the Twins like the way he works with pitchers. As noted above, catchers have a different developmental timeline, but Cossetti hit the AA wall pretty hard as a hitter. Doesn't exactly look like the next Mitch Garver to me. Mitrovich is interesting, might end up being a guy they pulled out of a smaller program and could be someone. I love a guy with a good changeup, so I'll be rooting for him. I agree that he needs to see better competition; at 22 he's mostly facing guys that are younger than him, including a lot of guys who don't even have that college experience. But good for him for dominating when he's taking the ball. Quick is a guy I really like. When he isn't handing out free passes, he's very tough. If he can develop more consistency and command his pitches he will keep rising "quick"-ly. Biggest issue with him is he simply hasn't pitched very much. Hopefully the Twins can build him up, but I don't expect him to clear 60 pitches in an outing this year. But he's shown he can mow through 4 innings with about 50 pitches which is pretty fun. Whether he gets another promotion this season or not, I'm very confident he'll be in AA next year. Please stay healthy, mah dude.
  20. jmlease1
    After a slow start tot he season, Winokur has done quite well. There's still some concern about his ability to make consistent contact, but he's doing a better job of taking walks when available and going after pitches that he can punish. If he keeps this up through the end of June, I think he'll be heading to Wichita I'd like for them to stop wasting time with him at SS; there's just no real chance that he ever plays there in MLB and he's got a real chance to find a home at either 3B or CF...or both. I'm find with experimenting with guys in A-ball and giving players extended time to see if they can stick/develop at a position, but De Andrade is a better SS than Winokur and they don't trust him there. The Rule 5 draft for him this upcoming offseason will be interesting. Even with a midseason promotion to AA he won't be ready for MLB by a long stretch...and you have to think that the 26-man roster spot would be too hard to give to a guy who still needs real developmental time...but the upside is so tantalizing that if I were a team short on talent I might look at whether he could fill a role like Outman did for the Twins earlier this season: play some OF defense, pinch run, with the occasional start to give him some swings. Will the Twins protect him or roll the dice? Fun prospect to watch. Was worth taking because of all the tools. Like all prospects, maybe he'll get there, maybe he won't but the upside is still there and he's still only 21.
  21. jmlease1
    I get that the Twins don't consider Sabato or Fedko to be real prospects at this point...but at what point to you just give them a chance anyways? Is it after the trade deadline and a sell-off? I get the 40-man issue makes it harder to pull them up and they're hoarding those slots for players they think have higher upside or fill more immediate needs...but both of those guys are doing about everything you could ask for of them. Interesting question for these kinds of borderline dudes...who might just be AAAA players (too good for AAA, not really good enough for MLB) but you just don't know. Twins were willing to roll with Outman for quite a long time, much to the frustration of fans. Is it familiarity breeding contempt? Those guys have been in the organization so long they know all their flaws intimately and it blocks out their assets?
  22. jmlease1
    Houston has been on fire lately; nice to see him hitting well after a bit of a power outage in May. I'd say he's on track for a midseason promotion to AA. It'll be interesting to see where the Twins go with midseason promotions. Wichita could use some hitting reinforcements; their lineup has really struggled after Mendez, Ross, and Olivar all got early bumps. Hopefully more guys get back on the field too and we see a run of good health for a while.
  23. jmlease1
    Talk about needing the starter to chew up some innings...and they got it from Zebulon. Good for him for settling down and getting the job done, and for the defense actually supporting the pitcher. A nice win. Hopefully they can get the rotation healthy, claw together some consistent offense...keep digging for an actual bullpen...
  24. jmlease1
    This is where it's complicated for Royce Lewis. You can't expect him to not take advantage of AAA pitchers and club homers when the opportunity arises. Is his walk rate down at AAA? Sure, but he's also hitting .357. When players on on a hot streak like that they're walk rates are always going to be lower because they're hitting everything and don't have to grind out as many walks. (The OBP is .429, so it's not like he's just swinging at everything) Right now, his approach is working. He's not just hitting AAA pitching, he's utterly destroying it. How to you tell a guy to "go the other way" more when he's crushing it? (Pulling the ball isn't an inherent evil either; ask David Ortiz) He can be pull-happy if his bat speed is letting him catch up to fastballs and he can lay off the breaking stuff away...so is he showing enough of that? Notably, Royce is a confidence player. He was not swinging with any confidence when he got sent down, and he was just guessing at pitches. His confidence has got to be jumping way back up again, which you'd think would be a good think. It does sound like some people around here don't want that for Royce and think he needs to be broken and humbled before he's allowed back up to MLB, if he ever is. (I'd say there are some people who don't want him around at all ever again; as much as there are supposed homers who are back on the bandwagon there seem to be haters who have given up on Royce too and even successes in AAA will be discounted...)
  25. jmlease1
    It's complicated on Royce. You want to see him doing well, which he is. But the difference between AAA and MLB is pretty huge, and it's unclear how much of his current success in Saint Paul is a result of him fixing problems that were ruining him in MLB or the fact that the pitchers just make a lot more mistakes over the plate/struggle more to induce hitters to chase off the place. Now, Royce is also definitely a confidence player, so him clocking a bunch of AAA pitchers is also probably good for that aspect for him? Hopefully he's getting a good re-set that lets him get into a repeatable and sustainable approach at the plate. I'd love for him to get back on track (it's sad to me that there are people on this site who seem to want him to fail and be gone) Winokur is continuing on his nice run. I'd say he's lining himself up well for a midseason promotion to AA, which is great. Diaw is interesting: not showing much pop in the bat yet, but he's doing well at everything else...maybe he gets a promotion soon too? I'm impressed that he's still splitting time between catcher and CF. I'd probably move McDaniel up fairly soon as well; I just don't think we learn much about him watching him beat up on A-Ball pitching, and while I'd love for him to turn out to be a hidden gem that good scouting and vigilance towards the indy leagues uncovered, I'm not going to get too excited about him until he gets up to AA and faces both better and more age-appropriate competition.
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