jmlease1

I think these are definitely the most likely 4 players to potentially get selected. Odds are not great for actually losing any of them, however. Rosario adds basically nothing defensively and with position players needing to contribute on almost every roster, he would need to show some level of competence as a hitter immediately, which is a big ask for a guy jumping from AA to MLB. Even if someone takes a flier on him, it would be difficult to roster him all season unless you're a team that's already given up in May...and even then, it's hard to find room for a guy on the 26-man that isn't ready to play. There's a reason COF/DH/1B types don't get picked. Culpepper is probably the most likely to get picked, and his injury history is almost a bonus for a team willing to pull some shenanigans; you could make him the last guy in your bullpen and then stash him on the IL at various points, potentially. But again, tough to hold for a whole season if he's not able to do at least something. If Fedko can still play a respectable CF, he might get snapped up by someone looking to take a shot on a guy? For $100K you're basically giving him a tryout to be the 4th or 5th OF and if he looks rough through spring training you can send him back and not worry about it. Actually losing him isn't super likely, and the fact that the Twins didn't call him up last season, in which he performed well and they had nothing to lose, probably resonates around the league to some extent, and his age is a factor. (remember, just because people around here hate the front office and think they're incompetent boobs who should be shot out of a cannon towards Mars doesn't mean the rest of baseball doesn't respect their opinions on things...) Lewis looks like a stretch: not a high velocity guy, real control problems right now...again, he might get a $100K spring training try-out and/or a team might try and swing a low-impact trade for him using the Rule 5 as a lever...but actually losing him? Seems low.

Never believe anything pro sports owners say about money without access to their actual book and the presence of at least 2 independent forensic accountants. In less than a year the supposed team debt has gone from $400M to $420M to $450M to now $500M. The number is whatever the Pohlad Family wants it to be on any given day. I certainly wouldn't trust Charley "Sid's Dead, So I'm the Biggest Shill in MN!" Walters for accurate info. That said, I'm fairly certain that paying off the debt is where the biggest chunk of the new partner's money is going to go...but would I put it past the billionaire Pohlad Family to do a substantial disbursement to the family so that everyone gets some fresh cash for whatever they want to be doing, whether it's financing a new film or buying a winter home in FL? No, no I would not. But if they are hemorrhaging cash to the point where they are actually adding $50M in debt annually...then their business aspects for the Twins are an utter disaster and Dave St. Peter needs to be sent to a farm upstate and kept very far away from even being an advisor.

Sure did. Not big enough samples of him at 1B to be that confident that yes, he's great defensively. He had a fine season at 1B for Baltimore before being traded. His overall time at 1B over the past 3 season defensively is much more mixed. I'm not sold on a guy being a defensive stalwart after 1 good season, and never playing the position for even close to a full season. Small samples for defense are a great way to lie to yourself. (I'm encouraged by Austin Martin's performance in LF last season, but I'm not sold on him being a plus defender out there and I got to watch him improve as the season went along. Because it was only 250 innings)

Yep. will he keep that success up at 32, and what will we do to attack LHP if he returns to career norms against them? He's a clear upgrade over Clemens offensively, bit of a downgrade defensively, but also looks like a guy that isn't likely to fix our issues against LHP. For us to commit $12M per season, I just don't know if we can use it on a guy who isn't a more significant upgrade and also doesn't address that weakness. Feels like the kind of signing we'd make if O'Hearn's market dries up on him fast because no one believes in him and he needs a home on a 1 year deal...which might be ok?

eh. I'm less enthusiastic about O'Hearn. Players who have a peak season at 31 make me a little nervous. O'Hearn ain't much of a defensive player and the good splits last season hitting LHP might be more small sample size fluke than reality since he's been typically bad against LHP before. While I like pushing Clemens to the bench, where he belongs, I think I'd still rather take a risk on Andujar than O'Hearn, who will be cheaper and fills the need for RH thump better. While 2/$24M would be fair based on his past several seasons, it's probably out of the Cheap Pohlad budget, even with them "allowing" Falvey to add rather than subtract.

Twins have a pretty rough record on first round picks in the top 10. 24 picks in total. 4 that were signed and at least mostly worked out? Jay Bell (traded, but the pick was good), Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and 3 with the jury still out (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins). Not great. Next guy on the list is Todd Walker (12 year career, 10.5 bWAR), which ain't great. Couple of pitchers we drafted and failed to sign, which is a big fail. The Buxton, Stewart, Gordon, Jay quad shows that tanking for picks/prospects can really crap out as we hit 1 out of 4 top 10 guys and 3 were top 5. The 5 year run that yielded failing to sign Travis Lee, and missing on Mills, Garbe, and Johnson (Cuddyer was good at least) was brutal too. Missing on picks like this is really bad for a franchise. Missing on a bunch of high picks certainly hampered the Mauer Era; they botched high picks before Mauer and outside of Span missed on a lot of low firsts after. A top pick here really will make a difference...one way or another.

I keep forgetting Soto is only 20. Hope he has a healthy year. I'm less excited about Marek Houston at the top of the age-21's; I have real questions about his ability to hit. (even what we think as all-glove, no-hit SS like Andrelton Simmons put up some minor league hitting numbers) Hope I'm wrong about him. I keep reminding myself that Quentin Young ain't Delmon, and it's wrong to look down on him because of his family.

I don't care if they slot him in at AAA after cutting him from the MLB roster. He wants to go to the minors with the Twins and try and figure it out as a depth guy, it'll be fine...because it means that Roden and/or Jenkins/Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Fedko earned a roster spot, so there's probably room for him in Saint Paul. But he gets promised nothing. Frankly, I'd like to see the Twins roster carry Buxton, Martin, Rodriguez or Roden, Gonzalez, and Wallner (with Wallner as a primary DH) in the OF with the other half of the Roden/Rodriguez pair, Jenkins (unless he lights the world on fire a la Keaschall), Rosario, and Fedko getting most of the OF time in AAA and trying to earn the first call up. And that's without Larnach. If Larnach somehow sticks to this roster, then there's really no room for Outman IMHO.

Much as a really do like SWR (dude just keeps stepping up and getting the job done in the face of many many doubters), if you're going to trade a starter he's a better option than Ober, who is more expensive and coming off a down year. Abel isn't getting dealt unless someone comes to us and makes a big offer; there's simply little chance this front office looks to deal a guy they traded for after such a short period...and waving him around to the other GM's probably gets seen as a red flag that drops his return value. ("They just got this guy and now are looking to move on? Bet there's something wrong with him.") I'm not opposed to trading a starter. I'm just afraid the Cheap Pohlads are going to make it so we have to deal Pablo and/or Ryan.

I get that the medical reports on Festa have been encouraging, but we should be skeptical that he's going to be ready by spring training to begin with. Scratch one. So we're really talking about Abel, Bradley, and Matthews competing for the 5th spot, with Bradley having the inside track being a) the most experienced, b) the most effective so far, and c) out of options. Having Abel & Matthews as the the 6th-7th guys in AAA means depth and insurance against injury. And it always seems like someone is getting injured. But it also means that trades to upgrade the roster can be made late in spring training or long before the trade deadline from a position of strength rather than desperation. BTW, Rojas is nowhere near ready to debut this season; he wasn't ready for AAA last year and got his brains kicked in. Not worrying about a guy whose ETA is more likely to be 2027 than 2026. As much as I love Preilipp's talent, he should be heading to the bullpen. We need the talent upgrade there and even if he can stay healthy as a starter, it's hard to see him as being anything more than "5 and fly" guy because of his history. Regardless: he certainly can go in the bullpen this season and be someone who can throw 1-2 innings and still get another look at starting in 2027 depending on how his arm is holding up. And until we know that the Cheap Pohlads aren't going to functionally force a Pablo trade, we ain't got extra starting pitching. We probably have just enough.

I didn't mind the Twins taking a flier on Outman in a lost campaign; it wasn't crazy to see if there was something that might be fixable to get him back on track. The rookie season was impressive after all, even if there were some yellow flags in the hitting. But he didn't look like a guy capable of being the backup CF in his time with the Twins and looked utterly lost at the plate as well. Outman's problem right now is that whatever he's doing in AAA (and he's hammered AAA pitching just fine the last 2 seasons) is not translating to MLB at all. Why should we think it's going to get fixed for 2026? Considering the minor league depth we have for LH corner OF and that others appear to have a better chance to be able to cover CF more effectively, keeping Outman just to potentially keep from losing the asset for nothing is penny wise, pound foolish type thinking. It's the sunk cost fallacy writ large. I'm fine with bringing him to spring training, but his lack of options shouldn't be a consideration at all. Not at his age or with his track record. I don't know if Roden is going to be a guy or not, but he's 4 years younger and struggling in your first taste of MLB pitching (especially in a season where you get traded) is certainly forgivable. But it should be an open competition for a job as 4th OF between Outman, Roden, Rodriguez, Fedko, and Jenkins (and maybe Gonzalez, though GG isn't a CF either) and I wouldn't put even one grain of extra on the scales because of Outman's lack of options.

Seriously. He's...ok. He should be a bench player at best on a good team. He had a blazing hot month and it was very fun, but that doesn't mean he's good. He can fill multiple roles, and is a good clubhouse guy, and when he gets on a hot streak can do some things with the bat, but when it's going bad for him he's absolutely dreadful at the plate. As a 26th man, setting the floor for the team on what's acceptable for a roster spot? Sure. But he hasn't shown he's starting quality. As a bench bat who can give quality defense at a few positions he's got some value, especially since he's a home run threat. As a starting 1B he's going to have to take another significant step forward...at 30. After having probably the best season of his career and getting about as many PA's in MLB as the rest of his career combined.

That's great when everyone is healthy enough to play 140+ games and good enough to earn the time. But the idea that players who can't hit LHP are going to learn how in MLB if we just give them more reps is a fallacy that people have been selling (including Twins players) for decades. And the only guy you listed here that was a LH hitter was Hrbek...who could hit lefties. How well did it work running Jacque Jones out there every day? No one is striving for a platoon, but it's a way to cover up a weakness. Pretending that Kody Clemens is going to learn how to hit MLB LHP if we just give him a lot more chances at it is silly.

It's not really a breakout so much as a return to form. He had the breakout with the Yankees at 23 in 2018 and then had a lot of missed time until 2023. Andujar wouldn't have to be a strict platoon; he could stay on the field as long as he's healthy enough. But management seems hung up on Clemens being in the mix, and if that's the way, then we need at RH bat who can take at least some time at 1B because Clemens simply cannot start against LHP. Period. I'd love (and so would Shelton) to have a lineup of guys who never need to be protected with a platoon, but it's unrealistic.

There's risk with Andujar because of his injury history, but the Twins could slot him in primarily at 1B/DH which also might help keep him on the field. While I wouldn't expect him to light the world on fire defensively at 1B, he's got a little experience there and should be at least passable, especially as he adds experience. As a RH bat, he makes a lot of sense to partner with Clemens at 1B and DH. He's not going to take a lot of walks and he going to swing the bat a lot, but he also gets hits and doesn't K a ton, which should make some people around here happy. He's also got enough pop in his bat to hit 15 dingers and 25 doubles, so he provides a threat. I wouldn't expect to get Cincy Andujar, but even if you get the A's version that's a step up for us. He seems likely to hit above league average and hits LHP quite well without getting torched by RHP. If he's in the $5M range, he's the kind of player it's worth taking a swing on to fill a significant hole. I wouldn't look to him to play any 3B and as little OF as possible, but the Twins have options there and this keeps Clemens from playing against LHP. It's not going to set the world on fire, but it is the kind of floor-raising move that I'm ok with. I'd like to set my sights higher, but I presume that the Cheap Pohlads are setting the payroll at a level where that's unrealistic. Within this context, I like Andujar as a fit for this team that you'd hope wouldn't force the sale of any of the starting pitching.

The projections assume Ryan & Lopez are here in 2026, since they're on the roster. They assume regression to the mean for veteran players, so guys with down seasons like Wallner or Lewis will be projected to have a return to form. It doesn't care about inexperience in late-inning roles for bullpen pitchers, only what they might be able to do statistically in some role without presuming that they'll be better or worse in lower or higher leverage roles. But these projections are often a reasonable evaluation of the overall talent level of a team. It's not that hard to quint and see the opportunity for this team to bounce back quickly and stop sucking. It's just hard for anyone around here not to believe that our terrible owners are going to force a trade of Lopez/Ryan/Buxton, or that we're going to continue to have bad luck with injuries, or our young players will not take a leap forward when needed. Pessimism reigns around here because ownership has put such a black cloud over the fandom. (and the tone-deaf front office hasn't done enough to justify their apparent job security)

Is that actually true? Because of all the LH hitters that played for the Twins in 2025 only Keirsey is listed as being left-handed as a thrower. Wallner, Larnach, Outman, Julien, Clemens, and Fitzgerald are all listed on B-Ref as throwing righty. If you throw LH you're probably going to hit LH, but I don't think the reverse is true

Yeah, they need to sort through this pile, which is why it's surprising to see what are likely to be really short assets spent on Larnach, who provides no defensively value and is a platoon player with seemingly minimal upside at this point. Of course, I'm of the camp that thinking Outman should not be on the 40-man, and if you stripped those 2 off the roster, then we're much less overloaded, though we still need to actually find out who can play and who can't. Wallner (who could shift to more of a DH role), Roden, Rodriguez (who has injury issues), Jenkins (who is still a baby), and Mendez (who is likely getting time at 1B) as a collective seems to provide both opportunity and depth in reasonable measures. If Larnach and Outman are both on the 26-man, then we have a log-jam for playing time AND low ceiling players grabbing too much PT. They need a RH bat who can play 1B, DH, or COF. they don't need more LF COF until at least 2 of Rodriguez, Jenkins, Roden, and Mendez have proven they can't play in MLB.

There were also cases being made for McKay, who has been a total bust and is out of baseball. Greene looks like he's figured it out, but has injury issues of his own. Gore had his first good season last year. But please tell me who exactly it was around here that was able to accurately predict the injury history for any of the top 5 picks in that draft before they happened? Royce's issue has been injuries and not staying on the field; even last season he only made 106 games. yes, he struggled, but that's also after having how many injuries? Rays went over slot on McKay. think they feel great about it now? Braves went over slot on Wright, and probably thought they had something after 2024. After 2025, when he was injured and terrible, they might feel a little less good. Notably, the Rays in 2017 couldn't sign their late first round pick, who went back to college and probably cost himself about $1.5M after falling to the 6th round the next year. Rays also went over slot on their second round pick, much like the Twins did with Enlow, for Mercado, who spent 5 years in their system doing nothing before getting dealt for next to nothing. He's been bad and can currently be had for likely a minor league deal assuming he doesn't move on in life. Twins didn't really do anything wrong in the 2017 draft; it just hasn't worked out for Royce so far. If he comes back and has a good and healthy season in 2026 they're still doing ok. (and notably, 2017 was when they found Bailey Ober in the late rounds) Baseball draft is still seriously hard to predict. Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper sure like they were pretty good picks, so there's good reason to believe the Twins would pick wisely with a top pick.

thanks!

I hate everything about trade scenarios involving Byron Buxton, one of my all-time favorite Twins, and one of the most exciting and fun players to watch in Twins history. He wants to be here, and we've screwed it up with terrible ownership and a front office that has offended/turned off so many fans some people can't even accept they may have done some good things while here. Yes, his health hasn't stood up, but when he's even close to right he's one of the most electrifying players I've ever watched, and I've seen a lot of effing baseball. The fact that we're speculating about trading him is a goddamn travesty. I hate these rumors, and I hate all these trade partners. I hate all the coastal writers floating trades that will almost certainly give the Twins the short end of the stick. I hate the fact that Twins beat writers have to cover this story. And if any of them enjoy it, I hate them too. Hey Twins: wanna make it even easier for me to not come to a game or even watch on TV? Trade Byron Buxton. Baseball is a great game. But today? Baseball sucks.

the odds are against basically every prospect. It's always going to more likely that a prospect fails than succeeds, and it's like that for every team (yes including Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, who are frequently cited as being uniquely more clever than the Twins, and still have more prospect misses than hits) But players will break out and crush their level of the minors, and that's a) worth celebrating, and b) fun to speculate on. Get out of the bitter barn and come play in the hay! :P

I'm very interested to see what a healthy Charlee Soto looks like in 2026; I think he could take a major leap if he's able to stay on the field. I'm more than a little concerned that the Twins might have screwed up Rojas' development by pushing him too aggressively last season; to me he looked like a player that was not ready for AAA, but the team left him up there in a misguided attempt to justify an unpopular trade. I hope I'm wrong. There's quite a bit of talent in the Twins farm system. The challenge as of late has been in making the last step it seems.

I was a big Julien backer, but he hasn't done enough to merit a spot on the roster; beyond that he's a poor fit to back up Clemens or any of the likely DH candidates (LH bats all). While he's on the 26-man by default based on his lack of options, this is where sunk cost fallacy comes into play. It's frankly the biggest concern I have about Outman: rather than "lose the asset" they'll keep a player who isn't good enough to be on a MLB roster hanging around. I'm not even very enthusiastic about keep Larnach, and he's been far better than either Outman or Julien over the past 2 seasons at the plate. I don't hate the lineup that much outside of these problems, but it's predicated on better health or performance from several guys: Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lee, while having continued health/success from Buxton, Jeffers (who wasn't great last season), and Martin. And that can go wrong in a hurry. The rotation looks great, right up until the Cheap Pohlads force us to trade Lopez or Ryan. But right now? That's a pretty dang good rotation, especially if Ober bounces back. Bullpen still needs experience and Kline doesn't have it. I don't mind running with some of the younger guys and converting some starters, but they need to add a guy who has experience late in games. I question whether Preilipp will go bullpen from the jump, but I'm here for it.

Well, first off you appear to be misrepresenting what replacement level means in the context of WAR. That's for guys who put up a negative WAR which yeah...you can find cheaply and off the street. WAR doesn't presume that you can replace a starting quality player easily or cheaply, which is why they value 1 WAR at $8M or so. Have the Twins found a consistent replacement for Rosario in LF? No, but they've certainly replaced Rosarios production since he left...because Eddie stopped being good. Twins got solid production in the COVID season in 2020 (OPS+ of 116 with decent defense in the smaller sample). After that, it hasn't been good for Rosario and the Twins still look smart for not investing playing time or financial resources in him. Atlanta got overly excited by a hot run down the stretch and handed him a big contract, that immediately blew up in their faces. In a fairly similar amount of playing time (overall) from 2021 through 2025, Trevor Larnach was in fact better than Eddie Rosario, and much much cheaper. Because of injuries and lack of production, Larnach hasn't been able to seize the LF job on a permanent basis, but drop Rosario's production in there and things are even worse. Martin is an intriguing option for LF in 2026, because he finally started to look comfortable out there and his ability to get on base was strong enough to make up for not having any real pop in his bat, and his speed on the bases offset the mistakes. If he produces like he did in 2025 for an entire season, he's a solid starting LF that provides speed, defense, and a solid ability to avoid outs, while not adding anything for power. Roden has a higher upside, because he looks like he could potentially play all 3 outfield positions credibly or better, could have some decent pop in his bat, and might avoid outs effectively. But his hit tool hasn't shown up yet. (BTW, Roden has a better track record as a hitter in the minors than...Eddie Rosario) He should get chances in MLB this season. I'd rather give Martin the starting job out the gate because I think Larnach's upside is pretty limited and Martin adds more things. Roden should get chances in LF, RF, and CF to play and show he can hit. If we're adding in a prospect to compete for OF time (and I believe we should), I'd make it at the expense of Wallner in the OF, moving the moose to DH, but not having Larnach on the team at all. Regardless, I'm not really missing Eddie Rosario in LF. 2018 Eddie? Sure. But that guy ain't been around for a long time.