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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Not wrong, but not exactly representative either. It's a much bigger issue to be where Royce is after a quarter of the season than it is after a dozen games, right? So we're not really comparing the same things. And if Keaschall gets there a month from now it means he's been on a full 6 week tear and it's a very good sign that he's made real adjustments, because nearly halfway through the season he won't be seriously disappointing at the plate any longer. But the real question is, are you dismissing Brooks Lee's progress because you think it's too early in the year and might still be too small a sample, or because you don't think Brooks Lee is good?
  2. jmlease1
    I think Lee can be a good player, a quality starter on a good team. He might not be able to pull off a true all-star season, but he showing this season that he can be a quality hitter. I think it's notable that he's improved as a hitter so far in every season he's been in MLB (admittedly, there was plenty to improve on), but he's a smart player who works on his game and can make adjustments to play to his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. I think it's fairly obvious to most that SS won't be his long-term position, but if he ends up riding out most of this season there until Culpepper is ready it's not the worst thing in the world. He's not good there; not enough range, not enough arm, but I don't think he's an embarrassment. I think 3B would be his best defensive position: he's got a pretty sure glove, makes accurate throws, and if he's got time to set himself he'll be able to make those throws across the diamond and not need the 1B to bail him out. Think he'll also do fairly well in tracking foul pops too. With Lewis struggling mightily, there's an opportunity to claim that job. A quality switch-hitter who can be good (potentially plus) at 3B and slot in anywhere in the bottom half of the lineup while providing some pop has a lot of value.
  3. jmlease1
    I'll take the blame. I've jinxed every team I root for for 35 years now. Now into my 4th consecutive decade of all hope getting wrecked, regardless of the franchise, for men's pro sports. (I'd stick to women's sports, but would probably start to ruin them for everyone else too) Sigh. Bradley was looking so good this season. Only one Game Score under 55 all season. Half his starts had a Game Score over 60. Of course he had to get injured. How could he not?
  4. jmlease1
    Twins even moved Sano off SS by 19. I guess I can live with it if they feel like they need a little more time on Young to make it an easier transition for him off the position. Managing the psyche of a young player and so forth. But he simply shouldn't leave the FSL still thinking he'll ever play SS as a pro. The Winokur decision is baffling to me as well. DeAndrade is a better SS than he is and the Twins have looked for reasons not to play him at SS it seems, yet keep running Winokur out there. It had looked like they were finally moving past it with Houston on the squad, but here we go again. He should be working at 3B, CF, or possibly 1B all positions he might actually play if his hit tool develops enough consistency to be a real guy. (personally I think it's CF with his speed, arm, and athletic tools, but YMMV) Most of the time I'm ok with leaving a guy at a position for as long as possible, but some of these guys just aren't going to stick at SS and everyone knows it. Unless they have some secret study that shows that repeated reps at SS in A-ball will improve their ability to play their eventual position by AAA, I think they can make some of these calls a little sooner.
  5. jmlease1
    Hopefully Zebby is finding a groove and getting back on track. He's still got plenty of talent and with SWR struggling so much, we may need him sooner rather than later. Can we just promote Mercedes already? Time to see what he does in Cedar Rapids. Have to be pleased with Amick so far. Would like to see more walks, fewer K's, but he's responded well and is showing some nice pop in the bat. He's taking to his first taste of AA pretty well, and after that awful showing in the AFL you had to wonder. To me it's a good sign that he was able to flush that and get back to work. Sick and tired of our top prospects getting hurt.
  6. jmlease1
    Royce was fine at 3B last season; notably our first basemen are giving no one any help this season, which is a significant change from last year. I'm not that worried about the defense, because it simply won't matter if he can't hit, and the OPS+ of 60 is far and away the bigger problem than his glove. The "send him to saint paul" idea is easy to spout off on at TwinsDaily, but it's more complicated IRL when you have to deal with actual people and not a statistical profile on bRef. (cue people screaming about "they're professionals, who cares about their feelings!" in 3...2...1...) You have to manage the psyche and personalities and the impact on the clubhouse and the player's career as well. From what we've seen so far, I doubt a demotion would go over well with Royce. At a certain point that won't matter as much, but it's still early in a season (I don't think this team is competitive with this bullpen, so I don't care about trying to "save the season") and demotion isn't the only tool in the bag. They're reducing his playing time, trying to work with him to make adjustments, and if that's not working and he can't start hitting fastballs again...he probably will go down. Hopefully someone like Culpepper is ready to come up and replace him. The fact that Brooks Lee is hitting well enough to be a producer at 3B (where his defense will play better) and Culpepper has been good so far in AAA (good, not great) should be putting some pressure on Lewis. That might end up making him worse, sadly. I wish him luck. He's a likable player and brought some great moments to the team. But if he keeps getting pushed around at the plate, he's in real trouble. It's not small samples any longer.
  7. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins please stay healthyKaelen Culpepper see you in JuneEmmanuel Rodriguez slide less; if healthy has earned a call-up NOW.Connor Prielipp workload will need to be monitored, but there's not actually any real correlation with significant innings increases season over season.Marek Houston is answering all the questions about his bat. on track for AA at midseason at the latestEduardo Tait so young, so talented.Dasan Hill very talented, needs consistency.Riley Quick moving up fast. only concern is he's never really pitched much.Kendry Rojas might be close. still might be too wild?Gabriel Gonzalez learn 1B? he can hit.Charlee Soto get healthy. loads of talentHendry Mendez only thing holding him back is a logjam in AAAAndrew Morris a consistent job in the bullpen would not be badQuentin Young will his tools translate?Brandon Winokur see also, Young, Quentin. Ryan Gallagher showing poetntialCJ Culpepper if he stays healthy, he's too good for AAKhadim Diaw bat is warming up. what's his position?James Ellwanger big talent. injury sucks.Kyle DeBarge very concerned about his bat. awful start. Twins system has some depth to go with some high-end talent. need some decent health outcomes. Just being average on that would be a win.
  8. jmlease1
    I think he can become credible at 3B. I might respect his desire to keep playing SS and try and grow there, but it's not going to happen. But if it doesn't happen at 3B, a big target at 1B who has the nimbleness to show more range than we've seen in a while wouldn't be a bad thing if he's also unlocked that power potential. He's crazy young and it's going to be a while. The tools are for real, but I've always thought that ranking him #14 on the prospect list is overhyped. Talk to me when he shows he can translate those tools into production. But mostly, I think as fans we put him out of mind for a while; he could spend 2 seasons in Ft. Myers and still be well on track. He's got a lot of developmental work to do and he's still just a big kid.
  9. jmlease1
    He's 24, probably time to get him out of AA. Going to need to clean out some chaff at AAA, promote some guys to MLB in order to make room for guys moving up from AA at some point. Crazy that Wichita hit 10 homers in a single game. That's a LOT. DeBarge really needed one. Amick is going to be an interesting one; he's bounced back nicely from an injury-wrecked end of his first full pro season and a brutal AFL stint, but the K-rate and contact is going to be a concern, Rosario is so inconsistent that it's clearly what's holding him back, but that power is for real.
  10. jmlease1
    Mercedes is making the case for promotion right now. Good for him. I'd like to see him in Cedar Rapids before the end of May. Quick still did fine; you knew he wasn't going to be perfect forever. Looking forward to seeing where he's at in a month or so; I suspect we'll still be looking at another promotion for him this season, which would be an excellent result. Like seeing Mendez take some walks and get a hit in his AAA debut. I think he earned his promotion and it'll be fun to see how he progresses. Not a lot else positive among the hitters on the prospect list yesterday, unfortunately.
  11. jmlease1
    He has basically no chance at sliding into a rotation role, so relax. I don't have a problem with him starting in MLB as a (potentially) multi-inning reliever pitching in lower leverage situations and advancing him up the ladder or not depending on how he's performing. Have him pitch in relief and see what he can do. If his stuff is playing up and he shows he can be effective, they're going to try him out in different roles. But with Prielipp in the rotation for now and on a more restrictive pitch limit than some of the other starters, having another guy that should be ok throwing 2 innings available isn't a bad idea right now.
  12. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'd much rather he say something and it turns out to be nothing than him keep it to himself, play through it, and then it turns into something. Players can't be trusted to keep themselves safe; I'm pretty sure that Byron Buxton could lose a limb to a combine harvester and he'd still say he'd be able to play the next day if someone would just give him some duct tape. Hopefully this was a weird twinge or he just needed a skip in the rotation and he'll be feeling fine after throwing a bullpen or something.
  13. jmlease1
    This is exactly why I dismissed any idea of counting on Festa for 2026. As soon as he got the TOS diagnosis, you have to stop counting on him for anything. If and when he comes back, it's a bonus, not something you can plan for. Good luck to the Slim Reaper, hope he makes it back.
  14. jmlease1
    Blaming Royce Lewis's (and Jose Miranda's) struggles on Carlos Correa is one of the wilder statements I've ever seen at Twins Daily. Royce playing a little CF may have been a foolish decision, but the injury itself was one of the flukier flukes that ever fluked. And he came back from it in 2023, even finishing out the season on a high note with 4 homers in the playoffs. It's not "playing out of position" and it's not Carlos Correa. It's the accumulated damage of having a real injury issue every single year of his MLB career up until now (this season's was pretty minor) and blowing out a knee to miss 2021 as well. he's missed a ton of time, his physical superiority has diminished, and he doesn't have several seasons of consistent MLB experience to fall back on in making adjustments. It's taken him 5 seasons to reach 1000 ABs. That's the equivalent of about 2 full seasons, of which he's never played 1. Brooks Lee is only like 225 ABs behind him, despite 2 fewer seasons and some injuries of his own. It's the injuries. It's 100% the injuries. (Miranda fell apart because he got beaned. he was on a fine track in 2024 (when Carlos Correa was with the team), got beaned and the whole thing fell apart for him. He was a disaster last season, and clearly needed more time and distance, along with a fresh start; he does seem to have bounced back with SD...but I highly doubt that has anything to do with getting away from Carlos Correa, who was a big booster of his) It'll be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to send him down. They certainly have a reasonable option if Culpepper continues to progress well: bring up Culpepper, move Lee to 3B, use some combo of Gray/Kreidler to back up the left side. See if Royce can get it back together at AAA. He's only 27, so it wouldn't be shocking for him to get back on track. But it's been quite a while since he's been good at the plate.
  15. jmlease1
    Amazing night for Sabato. I'm not going to start thinking he's going to be a 1B solution in MLB for the Twins just yet, but good for him. Pretty remarkable work and good for Sabato for making people think about him as player, not giving up, and grinding his way to AAA. You never know with these things. Glad to see some guys getting deserved promotions; hope that means we might be done with the Outman Experiment and maybe Wallner will be heading to Saint Paul for a re-set. CJ Culpepper was also too good for AA if healthy, so I'll be interested to see how he does at AAA. Be nice to have another starting pitching prospect advancing in the much reviled "pipeline". Mercedes has felt like he should be a borderline Top 20 prospect at times. He's absolutely rolling right now at Ft. Myers...time for him to move up to Cedar Rapids? He's 21 now, and needs to start progressing up the ranks.
  16. jmlease1
    I was impressed with how Taj managed to settle down after a couple of high stress innings where he was struggling to locate in order to get through 2 effective innings. I think a year ago he would have had the meltdown game, walking 5 guys, throwing a couple of meatballs as "get over" pitches to try and buy a strike, and get hammered. That's good pitching. His stuff has never really been the question, and I liked how he fought through his troubles locating his pitches to manage the game. I'm not going to pretend the Nats are a murderer's row of hitters, but they have scored plenty of runs this season, so holding them down was nicely done. Wonderful start to the season for Taj, and he's been really important for the rotation. Keaschall is showing some signs that he might be working his way out of the hole. Love seeing a guy who has been struggling take a bunch of walks; that tells me he's got his head in the right place and trying to stay disciplined. Very pleased with Brooks Lee's night: he's been looking so much better at the plate the last month, and the doubles last night were a nice reward. If he can hit like this he'll be a valuable player, even if it's not at SS. (I think his defense will play just fine at 3B or 2B) Larnach is having a very nice season. I was totally out on him at the start of the season, but he's been absolutely doing the job mashing RHP. The roster problem of too many LH OF bats remains (Larnach can't hit LHP any better than Wallner did, Outman isn't going to help there either) but at least we're getting real production from Larnach, the kind of mashing of RHP you need a platoon-type bat to do. He's even been back to form in the OF, looking awkward but effective. And Buck's homer...oh, my!
  17. jmlease1
    I still don't have a lot of belief that Sabato can become a real MLB option (and I know there are people rooting for him to fail since he was a Falvey pick), but I admire how he's ground away and continued to fight for a career in pro baseball and earned his way up to AAA. But you never know with baseball. And if some of these guys figure it out late and even become a platoon option for a couple of years...that's a good thing and I'm rooting for them. Trevor Plouffe didn't become a useful MLB player until he was 26 (he was 8 years into his pro career before he finally made the Opening Day roster); he needed 2 attempts with a lot of struggles and a position change before he could stick. He had 2 ok seasons, 2 really good seasons and then he was basically done and kicked around for 3 more seasons in MLB before hanging it up. You need those guys coming up through the system too; it's not just star or bust.
  18. jmlease1
    Impressive that you've already written him off after he's barely played a full professional season. 23 is hardly old, even for AA. It sounds like you prejudged him before he ever took an AB. Was there anything he could have done to be acceptable to you, or are you just so mad that they picked him and not someone else that he can do no right?
  19. jmlease1
    Can I give you the old Tom Tango quiz? Who is the more impactful hitter (assume the same ballparks): Player A: .300/.370/.425 Player B: .250/.370/.425 No one is saying hitting for power means it's ok to not avoid outs. It's just that it's less meaningful how you avoid those outs. Long before the analytics revolution in baseball people were saying in Little League: "A walk's as good as a hit". Bringing it back around to Amick: if he's taking his walks and showing good pop in his bat, it'll fine if he's got a BA in the .250-270 range. But he has to take those walks and show a good understanding of the strike zone and do damage to balls in the zone.
  20. jmlease1
    I was really excited by Ellwanger, so it was a huge bummer to see him get hurt. Do we have real structural damage there or is it a sprain than can reasonably be expected to recover without surgery? I'd hate for him to lose a full development year (or 2 if it ends up being TJ) but I'd much rather know early than august. Quick deserves the pick, and he's having as good a debut as you could possibly hope for. He's pitched so little in college/pros that I'll be curious to see how much they let him go. But the stuff is for real. Culpepper needs to get moved up, if healthy.
  21. jmlease1
    Because hitting for power is important for creating runs. It just is. avoiding out + hitting for power = runs. It's a simple formula, but a proven one. Miguel Sano gets used as a poster child of what we supposedly don't want around here, but what we don't want with a Sano type is one who gets injured a bunch and goes into rapid decline. As a hitter, however, Sano was very impactful in his healthy seasons. Even with all his injuries and a massive and borderline tragic decline, he's got a career OPS+ of 115. Can you really look at his 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons and say this guy couldn't hit? (yes, the even-numbered seasons count too, but 1 of those was the idiotic "let's put him in RF!" experiment and the other down seasons are more about injury than lack of skill) If Billy Amick is Miguel Sano as a hitter I'd be thrilled! (he's not) Having a lower BA and a lot of K's may not be aesthetically appealing, and you probably don't want your lineup filled entirely with those dudes, but it's also not a death sentence and can in fact improve your roster. Beyond that, part of what keeps a team in good shape and winning is when you have lower level prospects come up and be solid contributors even if it's only for a few seasons. Be a quality starter for a few years, rather than have to spend precious free agent dollars on an aging veteran to fill in at 1B or 3B or DH. Amick might not get there? You'd like to see his contact rates get higher in AA and his power production be higher as well, but there's things to like about him and potential for him to realize.
  22. jmlease1
    He's at .242/.324/.473 as of 5 May, and that's after a bad week. I don't think anyone is rushing to send him up to AAA, but let's see where he is in a month or two. This is really only his second full pro season, so he's on a solid track and to me is showing potential. I think he's properly rated as a fringe top 20 prospect, and if he produces well this season and shows improvement in his approach, then he'll get an opportunity.
  23. jmlease1
    I think the Twins showed their interest in him by sending him to the AFL early and promoting him to AA despite not exactly having a great finish to his season in Cedar Rapids. Right now he's probably a borderline top 20 prospect, but there's potential if his bat stays live. Think they're handling him pretty well right now, splitting time at 3B and 1B. Be great if he can stick at 3B, but there's also a path for him to rise at 1B when the Twins need to find long-term solutions. We'll see where his bat is in another month, but he's off to a pretty good start to his year. Would like to see him make a little more contact, be a little more patient at the plate, but the power production has been good.
  24. jmlease1
    Have you actually watched a Twins game this year? Because this is an entry for the Preposterous Statement of the Year Tournament. The ranking here are correct. It'll be interesting to see if Abel is coming back soon (he's apparently throwing bullpens again) and where he would slide in. Ceiling is as high as anyone, but between prior track record and now an injury, is he ahead of Ober or not? I think he did enough to open the season to say yes, but it's intriguing. I hope better things happen for SWR. It's surprising to see him struggle this much, because it's not like he's some guy who had a fast start and then teams got a book on. He's been here for a while and has been productive. Of course, someone people have hated him from the jump because he was acquired for Berrios...
  25. jmlease1
    I understand that, but you have to make exceptions for certain players, because that's also part of building your fan base. Having those players that are "your guys" matters, especially when they're like Buxton who doesn't want to go anywhere. (I also think that you make a rebuild higher risk and likely longer when you empty out all of your quality veterans at the same time, but YMMV on that one) despite the current injury I would have preferred to be able to extend Ryan rather than look at him as a trade asset, but I understand the other side of it...and with the stripping of the bullpen assets for more starting pitching it's something that's also not as devastating as it would have been in other circumstances. This isn't 10 years ago when we were desperately signing veteran starters in their 30's and hoping they had one more season in them (or could bounce back after an injury, etc) not just to fill out a 5-man rotation, but hoping one of those guys might be a #3. The success of the rotation makes the current struggles of the bullpen quite frustrating...especially because it probably wasn't necessary.
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