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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think part of what you're seeing is what can be accomplished as long as you have at least one elite pitch. Ober's changeup is pretty damn great. The sweeper & slider are plenty effective with good movement, so it's not like Ober's arsenal is limited to chucking the change and hoping. The fastball velocity may be at the bottom of the league, but his extension is at the top, which reduces the amount of time hitters have to figure out the pitch as well, not just having the fastball play up a bit. Throw strikes, change speeds, hit your spots...it can work. I think looking at Ober's 2025 is interesting as well: the first start was a disaster, and that was a bad call on Rocco's part: he should never have pitched that day. After that, he was a quality starter the next 2 months. June was dreadful. July was the IL. August and Sept were inconsistent, but there were quite a few good starts in there. Velocity is useful. It's valuable. It's also probably the easiest? For most pitchers, what's going to be the easiest pitch for them to command? It's the fastball. But if Ober is able to consistently command that changeup, hit his spots with the breaking stuff, and mix in the fastball in ways that guys can sit on it and try and tee off on it...maybe he's got a new formula that will hold up. It's interesting. I love a good changeup. Ober's is one of the best we've had since...Johan?
  2. jmlease1
    He seems to be turning the tools into production, and it's great to see. Very happy to see him earn the promotion to Cedar Rapids, and it should be a good test for him. He could rise quickly if he's found a consistent approach at the plate and with his swing that he can stick with. Love the arm, and he's got pretty good speed out there, so he shouldn't need to move off CF yet?
  3. jmlease1
    Seriously. It's a damn shame what happened to him, and I hope he turns it around. Considering how miserable his season was last year in Saint Paul I can't blame him for looking for a fresh start and it would have been even more roster malpractice for the Twins to try and carry him. He's doing ok at SD's AAA so far (not great, but no longer anywhere near disaster zone) so maybe he'll get another chance in MLB.
  4. jmlease1
    Welcome to Wichita Eli Jones! Not a bad introduction after jumping a level. Twins have been pretty aggressive with him (despite the production maybe not being there) so I'm curious as to what they're seeing. Did a nice job in his first start. Mendez doesn't seem to be having any trouble adjusting to AAA. Like seeing that too. Amick is doing just fine so far in AA, which was a real question after his brutal AFL stint. But it's starting to look like the power is legit? There's a lot of K's in there, which will be worrisome, but he's taking his walks and hitting the ball hard while splitting time between 3B/1B, which seems like a good plan. I'm higher on him than others; I can see the upside, but recognize there are still some red flags. Much more concerned with DeBarge, who people really fell in love with last season with all the steals and the minor league GG. I was never as much of a fan, and sadly his bat seems to have vanished. he's got to hit better than this. AA can be a real separator for players: the pitching takes a real leap. Nice to see Yasser Mercedes putting those tools to work. I'll be curious to see where his bat is in a month, but I'm happy to see him at Cedar Rapids. GG needs to get rolling at AAA. He's been struggling so far this season. Hopefully this is just a bump in the road, but expectations were growing after he had such a strong showing in 2025. A fast start might have put him in contention to be the wallner replacement, but he hasn't earned it.
  5. jmlease1
    I thought they would wait until Rodriguez was back and had some games under him to make the move; Kreidler is a low impact choice, but at least adds some utility in being right handed and his defensively ability around the diamond. Maybe Outman gets dumped once Emma is back on the field and gets a few games to show he's hitting again. Twins are getting some decent offense even with Wallner being awful and getting nothing from outman, so maybe an improvement on defense and not exposing LH hitters as much will be a net benefit. I hope a re-set gets Wallner going again. He's a streaky hitter, but the power is real and when he's locked in he gets on base and hits bombs, two things that produce runs.
  6. jmlease1
    really showing how closely you're paying attention to the twins minor league system here.
  7. jmlease1
    I think the fact that he's not on the 40-man is a small barrier to Fedko getting a shot, especially since he's not seen as being as much of a prospect. It's sort of the Sabato problem. In order to bring him up to MLB they'd have to kick someone off the 40-man, which exposes them to waivers. Now, YMMV on how significant an issue that should be, but it's probably keeping Fedko from easily getting a shot. And while I agree on Rodriguez, I'm sure they're going to want him to get some AAA games in again to show he's ok and swinging the bat well first; it would be unusual for someone to go from the IL in AAA to go directly to the active MLB roster... But it's getting late early for Wallner and Lewis IMHO. And I've backed them both; I really thought Wallner in particular would have a bounce back season, and it just hasn't happened. Maybe it's they figured him out, maybe the previous seasons were more of a mirage than the stats showed, maybe having to face all those LHP early in the season screwed him up...but whatever it is, he's a mess now and showing no signs of pulling out of it. I think it's more complicated with Lewis (and he can still be useful in ways that Wallner can't) but if he's not in the same boat quite yet then he's bought a ticket, put on the life vest, and is checking out the seating...
  8. jmlease1
    I believe I said that. Roden is injured, Rodriguez hasn't played in 2 weeks, Jenkins is on the IL, Gonzalez has struggled, Mendez just got promoted, so really the only option would be Fedko...who isn't on the 40-man. That's why we're still riding with Wallner for sure. Lewis is probably has more to do with managing the player and the psychology of it; it's easy for someone to sit at the keyboard and say "demote him! who cares what he thinks? Who care what any of the players think!" but Twins management has to actually live in the world. SWR would likely be in the bullpen if they hadn't already lost Abel and Bradley, or if Festa wasn't slow in his recovery, but with those guys unavailable we're already trying to fill a spot with Morris/Adams/Rojas piggybacking and praying Priellipp doesn't get hurt...even if Zebby gets called up SWR probably doesn't head to the bullpen until Bradley is back on the field. Oof.
  9. jmlease1
    Rough one for SWR. He simply has not looked like the same pitcher this season and he's not getting it done. Sure, Adams couldn't shut it down when they asked him to come in and kill the rally, but he didn't put those runners on. Way too many walks issued by the Twins pitchers, but SWR just looked bad. Again. Only reason he hasn't been banished to the bullpen is Abel and Bradley getting hurt. Buxton is still awesome and the best reason to watch this team. He's a monster. Ball is still finding Keaschall when we need him to make a play. It'd be easier to live with if he were hitting, but he's still not really doing that either. (he's having another bad week, after finally having a good one) Only thing saving Wallner from a demotion is the AAA injuries, but he looks as awful as Royce. Amazing how fast the 3-game winning streak flies out the window after a pretty ugly loss. Hopefully they can flush it and take the series.
  10. jmlease1
    Greene has been great...when healthy. Notably, he hasn't pitched in 2026. But he was seen as the favorite for 1-1. Gore who got picked at 3 has been good, but somehow traded twice already. McKay was seen as being a sure thing to hit and was going to do an Ohtani thing before Ohtani...and bombed so badly he's out of baseball. But no one could have predicted 2 ACL tears for Lewis, which is why the draft remains a crapshoot.
  11. jmlease1
    well, do you count all the time he spent on the IL as opportunity to figure it out? Because dude has missed epic amounts of time. I'm sure there's more than a few other guys who have gotten 2 seasons worth of time over 3 seasons to try and figure it out. What's disheartening is how much he's struggling and how lost he often looks up there. When you can't hit fastballs in MLB it gets really really hard, because almost everyone can throw the fastball. Rooting for him. But finding a way to send him down to AAA without a) messing up his confidence even more, and 2) turning him against the franchise might have to be on the table. They're trying some stuff for sure. It's also starting to sound like he's hearing footsteps and it's not helping him.
  12. jmlease1
    Hrbek had an OPS+ of 85 he first taste of MLB. Gaetti only got a cup of coffee, but looked rough (did fine, if not quite starting quality in '82, his first real season). Brunansky crushed it. Laudner of course was never a quality starter and often a poor backup, really. (a historically bad all-star, there only under the kindness of Tom Kelly, who frankly should have been ashamed of himself) Viola was bad in both of his first 2 tries at MLB; he actually gave up more earned runs than anyone in 1983. Bush? A marginal player I'm afraid. gagne? Did nothing in his 2 cups of coffee, then struggled to be more than a backup getting starting time for a couple of seasons, before blossoming into an excellent fielder. A mixed record in their starts, for sure. I think you could argue there was some real failure there.
  13. jmlease1
    I'm not sure he's ready to crack the top 20 list IMHO; he looks more like a relief arm that still needs work on his command & control. But it was still a good trade, since the Twins weren't going to re-sign Castro. 16 seems pretty high, but that may have to do with a bunch of guys being hurt? Regardless, the difference between 16 and 25 for most teams is often more a matter of preference. Do you like production or tools? Do you favor projection at A-ball or clarity in AA or AAA? I think it's good to have him in AAA figuring things out, but I'd probably look to move him to the 'pen sooner rather than later.
  14. jmlease1
    Very happy to see Mercedes get promoted; it seemed to be due. Hopefully he continues to hit in Cedar Rapids and start his ascension. Who knows, maybe this is the season that his big bucket of tools turns into production? Hope that it's just a blister or a hangnail or something on Quick. Would be very very sad if he's got something more significant because he was off to such a wonderful start. Congrats to Hendry Mendez and Ben Ross on having a good beginning to their time in AAA. Mendez isn't showing any power yet, but I feel like it's a good sign when a guy gets promoted and is still taking his walks, even when he's also rapping out singles. Sometimes guys get a little swing-happy on promotion. Ross is doing very very well so far too: he's forcing his way into the Twins plans, and I wouldn't mind one bit to see him show he can be the next utility guy on the roster. Really hoping more of these prospects in the upper minors can become roster options.
  15. jmlease1
    So how do you decide when they're ready? Are they only allowed to come up when they're never going to get sent back down? How do you know when that will occur? Part of how their time occurs is when you give them a roster spot. development isn't linear, and you're better off not burning off too many option years in AAA because you've philosophically decided that you don't trust rookies or something. When a team isn't good enough to compete, it's also a good time to test those young players and actually find out if they are ready by the only sure means: let them play. It's still only mid-May, so it's not like we've only got 20 games left in the season to give someone a tryout for next year. But end of May/Early June you have to start making some calls if you want to give promising players a real look and not just a cup of coffee. And sometimes guys play well, put a charge into a team, and they go on a run...
  16. jmlease1
    Ober was absolutely excellent. He's finding a way to be effective with an 89mph fastball, and it's because that changeup is so deadly and he's spotting his sweeper effectives outside the zone and getting guys to chase and mixing in a good slider. He's throwing all the junk in the world and it's working. Good for him! His fastball isn't great, but he can throw it for strikes when he needs it, and the reality is he's throwing a "positive" fastball: everyone is positive they can hit it. Spoiler alert: they can't. Perez was really good and his stuff was dominant early. That fastball had excellent movement with superior velocity. But the Twins battled, and pushed a couple of runs across. When the Twins are drawing walks, they are at their best. I also liked the aggression on the basepaths to try and manufacture some runs. 2:07 time of game. kind of nice to have one zipping through like that!
  17. jmlease1
    I expect the only way Sabato gets a chance in MLB this season is if they sell off some parts at the deadline or there's a wave of injuries at 1B. All credit to him for turning his career around and getting himself up to AAA in the first place when he looked like a real bust, but it's going to take something significant for the Twins to add him to the 40-man and give him a chance in MLB. He didn't exactly light it up in April. And it may be significant that he has utterly destroyed younger pitchers while being more like pretty good against older ones... He did have a damn hot week though!
  18. jmlease1
    I think it's more likely that Lee would move to 3B, if he gets slotted into a regular job. He's got enough arm for 3B, especially when he can set and throw, and has an accurate arm. I think he can play 2B, but he doesn't have a great quick first step, which I think impacts him more at 2B than at 3B. But YMMV. I also still have hope for Keaschall at 2B... Culpepper is doing fine so far, but his OPS is basically sitting at team average right now, so he's not blowing the doors off yet. He'll definitely get attacked more efficiently in MLB, so the chase rate is concerning; pitchers in MLB are good enough to make him prove that he can lay off that slider off the outside of the plate and there will be fewer cheap walks. But he's on a good path and keeps showing improvements to how he attacks at the plate, so I'd be surprised if we don't see him at some point in MLB this season, which feels like a win.
  19. jmlease1
    it also shows how fungible relievers are; Gomez was poor for Tampa, but might go on a run where he's more than adequate for us. The samples will be small even when you throw together a whole season. Of course, I don't see a lot of good reasons to dub Gomez a "closer" of any kind; he just looks like a guy that might reasonably pitch close & late or take over as the designated 9th inning guy. We need both so...
  20. jmlease1
    I think there was a fair idea that keep Kreidler made more sense: right-handed, more defensive flexibility (particularly in areas than need more defensive help, i.e. the infield) can bring as much as Outman at the plate and on the bases at this point. But you're not wrong: it's a marginal move unless you're also planning on significantly reducing playing time for someone like Lewis or Wallner who have been the guys struggling the most at the plate. And because they didn't plan on that role changing enough in the short term is part of why they haven't called up a real prospect (along with injuries in the minors), as you've noted. But it's still not much of an endorsement for Outman who is living into his name...
  21. jmlease1
    Ranking trades based solely on their impact for the Twins 2026 MLB roster is useless. It's still too soon to really evaluate most of these deals. Losing Varland sucks, but if Rojas can be a guy then it still might not be a bad deal overall, especially if Roden gets healthy. The Duran deal still looks like it might be very good: Abel looked great before getting hurt (so waving off his contributions to 2026 while praising Duran's is fairly dumb) and Tait might be the catcher of the future. You have to give up something to get something, and these deals weren't made solely with 2026 in mind, so evaluating them only through that lens is kind of absurd. And the Outman/Stewart deal is pretty meaningless too: Outman has been mostly useless, but Stewart is perpetually hurt. While I wouldn't have made that deal, it's not like you can count on Stewart when planning a bullpen. He's like a bonus if he throws. The Castro deal had zero impact on 2026, but it also had little impact on 2025 for the Twins, negative impact for the Cubs, and Gallagher might be something useful. How is it this low even with such a narrow lens? I guess, congrats on getting me to comment?
  22. jmlease1
    I'm looking forward to seeing where he is in a month or so. Just need to see some continued progress on the walk rates, because at the end of the day, he's only 20, and that's not bad at all for high A. I'll be perfectly happy if he spends most if not all of the season in Cedar Rapids but brings the walk rates down to something more manageable and positions himself to start 2026 in Wichita. Development isn't consistent between players and isn't always linear either. I'm not panicking about his command yet. But this is also why TINSTAAPP exists as an acronym too...you just never know. I always struggle with getting to eager about guys who are still in A-ball...even when they flash electric stuff like Hill. I mean, I was getting excited about Charlee Soto too.
  23. jmlease1
    I feel like if Ross shows he can keep hitting at AAA he's lining himself up to be the utility guy next season, since he can legit play SS and would be able to back up every spot in the infield. Which would be great: much rather have that guy on a rookie salary than spending $$ on a veteran that might not have that much left. Twins need to be able to graduate talent from their farm system in all kinds of roles...and management will need to trust them to play.
  24. jmlease1
    At some point Hill has to start cutting down on the walks. The stuff is there, he can hunt K's like nobody's business, but he needs to hand out fewer free passes. 16 BBs in 19 2/3 innings tells me he'll be at Cedar Rapids for a while. It's ok, he's 20. Good game for Culpepper. He's having a good season so far, which is nice to see in his first season at AAA. It's been a good season so far, not a great one; the team OPS is actually slightly higher than his so have to keep that nice OPS in context. But no real problems yet, which is great. I think they're not feeling pushed to call him up based on his performance yet; the pressure is coming more from the struggles Royce is having in MLB, now that Lee has started to hit.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm happy to get the win, but I was convinced the murderer's row of Adams, Banda, Garcia, and Gomez were going to kick it away. That's about where we're at with the bullpen right now where I feel much more confident in our ability for them to chew up 3 innings in the middle than hold a lead late. Timely hitting got it done, although I really would have liked to see Royce come through with the sac fly late after Clemens stole 3rd. No complaints about Martin and Lee continuing to rack up hits and it was nice to see a chunk of doubles to back it up. Cleveland had a pile of baserunners, but only 1 xbh and it cost them, even against the Twins wobbly bullpen. I mean, screw Cleveland. Nice to win a road series there for the first time in a gazillion seasons. But I'd kill for some health in the rotation and a reliable power arm in the bullpen.
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