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Baseball is very much a team game, but in many cases, a small nucleus of transcendently talented players are the differentiators who elevate championship-caliber clubs. Minnesota has assembled a trio of star players in their primes who've shown they can play at an MVP-caliber level in the majors. But question marks abound for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, heading into a pivotal season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett, Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Looking back at the most successful teams in recent MLB history, we see how the impact of multiple star players clicking at the same time can carry clubs to new heights. The most recent example is the World Series champion Texas Rangers, who were propelled by a pair of top-three MVP finishers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien). Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, and Braves have, similarly, been elevated by their star power. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Matt Olson deliver massive value on the way to 100-plus win seasons and deep playoff runs. Pitching and depth both matter, as we've learned, but the reality is that having multiple everyday players on your roster who put up 5+ WAR can make up for a lot issues elsewhere. This concentrated production also tends to factor more heavily in October, where individual impact is accentuated. The Twins have long worked to build this kind of core, and are hoping it will all come together in 2024. Carlos Correa is entering his age-29 season, Byron Buxton his age-30 season, and Royce Lewis is looking to put in his first full MLB campaign at age 24. The Three North Stars It was always known that these three players could be destined for the tier of true major-league superstars. All were baseball prodigies from a very young age. Correa and Lewis were both No. 1 overall draft picks, and Buxton (No. 2 behind Correa in 2012) would've been the top pick in many other years. The Twins invested heavily to acquire these three–in money, draft capital, or both–and now the franchise has reached a point it's long been building toward: all three are in the majors, in their (ostensible) physical primes, and ready to join forces for a clear contender. Yes, there are question marks surrounding each of the three, as we'll discuss, but let's just look at what they've done when on the field. Here's a rough calculation of each player's fWAR per full season (averaged out for Buxton and Correa, extrapolated for Lewis): Carlos Correa: 4.7 fWAR per 150 games Byron Buxton: 4.2 fWAR per 150 games Royce Lewis: 6.2 fWAR per 150 games At a base level, if all three of these players stay mostly healthy next year and play to these standards of production, you've got a championship-caliber nucleus, plain and simple. Those are All-Star players at three critical positions. If we take one step farther into the realm of optimism, one could envision any of the three contending for an MVP in 2024. Correa wasn't far off from that form in 2021 or 2022. The same can be said for Buxton during that span, when on the field: he amassed 8.1 fWAR in 153 games. Lewis is the least proven, but his potential feels almost limitless, after watching him slug at a 40-homer pace while acclimating to major-league pitching. To whatever extent the clutch gene exists, Lewis has it in spades. That is undeniable. In addition to on-field production and pedigree, all three of these guys are leaders in the clubhouse, with intangible value that magnifies their positive impact. When you take away the injuries, it's easy to see why the Twins and their current front office have placed this trio at the center of their team-building scheme. Of course, you can't take away the injuries. The Elephant in the Room Let's just get it all out there. Correa is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he was plagued by signs of potential age-related regression even beyond the plantar fasciitis that bothered him for much of the season. Buxton's year was a depressing mess, casting doubt on his ability to stay on the field at all going forward, let alone play center field regularly. Lewis has played all of 118 total games over the past four seasons due to a medley of injuries, which extended into his brilliant rookie year. Coming off an 87-win season, it's understandable why many fans are yearning for more star power to be added to the mix this offseason, but that level of help probably isn't coming. The Twins will be focused on using what limited resources they have to replace their pitching losses and replenish their depth. They have little choice but to depend on these three core players as the foundations of their championship vision for 2024–because of the financial commitments they've already made to Correa and Buxton, and because of the ability Lewis has shown. There's an inclination for fans to focus on the negative or the downside in scenarios like these. After all, we've been conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to injury outcomes. But as this quiet offseason unfolds, I urge you to look at the bright side, and to consider the ceiling for the team if it all comes together next year. Reasons to Believe Setting aside the injury baggage, let's remind ourselves of the talent level these three players possess, and the highlights they've produced in big spots over the past few seasons. Is it plausible for all three to realize their top form next year? Here are some points for optimism: Not always, but plantar fasciitis is often an injury that lingers throughout a season before clearing up with extended rest during the offseason. That'll be the hope for Correa, who notably looked excellent in the playoffs after finally tearing the fascia late in the season. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported over the weekend that Buxton is "fully recovered" from his latest knee surgery and preparing for next season with the goal of playing center field. Given what a tough time he's had with the knee, I understand the widespread skepticism, but the team and its trainers are at least implementing a clear plan to address it. These things can take time. You'd like to think Lewis's catastrophic bad breaks are behind him. His twice-repaired right knee looked fully functional after his return this year. Hopefully going through some troubles with the oblique and hamstring helped him learn about managing his body and avoiding soft-tissue injuries going forward. For what it's worth, staying healthy and on the field was never a problem for Lewis prior to the two fluky ACL tears. The Time Is Now for This Twins Trio When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, they inherited the first overall pick in their very first draft. They used it to select Lewis, setting in motion a team-building vision that is now reaching its planned fruition. Along the way, Correa and Buxton joined Lewis as core building blocks, signing two of the largest contracts in team history. This is it. This is what the Twins have been building toward and now we'll see if these three superstar-caliber players can come together and make magic. Down the line, they might be joined or succeeded at this level by the likes of Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, who arguably offer the same kind of upside. But for now, look no further than Correa, Buxton and Lewis as the decisive factors in Minnesota's outlook in 2024, regardless of what else happens this offseason. View full article

Every offseason, teams sign long-term deals that lock up players well past their prime. Looking at the current Twins roster, here’s how the team’s worst contracts rank. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports It’s the holiday season, and many shoppers are attempting to find the best deals on the season’s hottest items (Twins Daily even has a gift guide). Teams across baseball are trying to cross items off their own wish lists, but shopping for free agents is sometimes riskier than going for the almost-free big screen on Black Friday. Players are paid on past performance, and some fail to repeat that performance as age and other factors start to play a role. Last week at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen ranked baseball’s worst contracts based on what is owed to the player and the expected performance from that player. Some of the worst contracts include Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rendon. The Twins have their own buyer’s remorse with some of the team’s long-term deals. 4. Christian Vazquez, C Original deal: Three years, $30 million 2024: $10 million 2025: $10 million The Twins had a need at catcher last season, following a poor year from Ryan Jeffers and the departure of Gary Sánchez. The front office quickly targeted Vázquez and signed him to a three-year pact. Trade rumors have surfaced this offseason that have the Twins shipping out veteran players to free up payroll space, but the team would probably need to eat some of the $20 million he is owed over the next two seasons. On Wednesday, Nick discussed Vazquez's value to the Twins, especially with a younger starting staff. According to FanGraphs, Vázquez was worth $7.6 million last season, even though his 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. The Twins also utilize a two-catcher rotation, which would be less feasible without Vázquez. It doesn't make sense for a team cutting payroll to trade Vázquez when his value is near its lowest point, and they would have to pay down his contract. 3. Randy Dobnak, SP Original deal: Five years, $9.25 million 2024: $2.25 million 2025: $3 million Dobnak’s extension was a strange contract from the moment it was announced, in March 2021. He was coming off a spring training in which he showcased an improved slider that looked like a strikeout weapon. Minnesota bought out his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, and obtained club options on his first three would-be free-agent years. It gave the Twins some cost certainty, but it looks like a poor deal in retrospect. Dobnak is no longer on the 40-man roster, after spending multiple seasons dealing with a finger issue. Last season, he made 31 appearances (26 starts) at Triple-A with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9. His contract isn’t going to break the bank, but it also wasn’t a move the team was forced to make at the time. 2. Byron Buxton, DH Original deal: Seven years, $100 million 2024: $15 million 2025: $15 million 2026: $15 million 2027: $15 million 2028: $15 million Buxton’s deal didn’t look bad when he signed it, but it has aged poorly over the last year. The Twins signed him as their everyday center fielder, and his damaged knees have limited him to DH duties. From 2021 to 2022, Buxton was worth over $30 million per season, even when averaging 76 games per season. Minnesota can hope that Buxton will return to the outfield at some point, but that's far from certain after not he didn't play a single defensive inning at the big-league level in 2023. His bat will have to carry him through the remainder of his contract, and he’s shown the ability to be one of baseball’s best hitters when he is healthy. In his career, there have only been two full seasons where he has been worth less than $15 million, so there is hope he will bounce back next year. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Original deal: Six years, $200 million 2024: $36 million 2025: $36 million 2026: $31.5 million 2027: $30.5 million 2028: $30 million Correa was named an honorable mention in the original piece at The Athletic because he was only worth 1.4 rWAR in 2023. Twins fans are well aware of Correa’s struggles this season as he dealt with plantar fasciitis. Minnesota hopes Correa can use the offseason to put his injury behind him and return to performing at his previous level. Last week, I wrote about Correa’s first season since signing his big contract and how he impacts the club’s future payroll decisions. Correa and Buxton are tied to the team’s roster through 2028, and nearly $50 million per season is being paid to these two players. Contracts that initially look bad can rebound and look reasonable, especially if Buxton and Correa can return to performing at an All-Star level. Free-agent deals rarely work out in the team’s favor. Clubs pay a premium for the contract's early years and suffer the consequences of declining performance in the back half of the deal. This trend is becoming even more pervasive with big-market teams, as they sign players to 10- to 12-year contracts to spread the money out and avoid paying more in luxury tax. Minnesota isn’t going to approach the luxury tax, so it is even more critical that the front office is spending money wisely on the free market. Do you agree with these rankings? Should Buxton rank higher than Correa? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa’s free agent journey was well documented last winter. Let’s review his second season with the Twins and how his contract impacts the organization in 2024 and beyond. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa and the Twins seemed destined to find each other. His long-term deals with the Giants and Mets each collapsed, and the Twins were waiting to welcome him back into the fold. Granted, it took the largest contract in team history (six years, $200 million), but the Twins were getting one of baseball’s top players in the prime of his career. This was an unusual feeling for Minnesota sports fans because there was hope Correa could push the team to levels not seen in the Target Field era. 2023 Recap Unfortunately, the 2023 regular season did not go as planned for Correa. His season started slowly with a .634 OPS in the first month. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in May, impacting him on both sides of the ball throughout the 2023 campaign. He posted career-worst totals in most offensive categories, hitting .230/.312/.399 (.711) while grounding into an MLB-high 30 double plays. Even with his struggles, Correa continued to play through the injury as he led the Twins with games played and had 89 more plate appearances than any other player. In September, Correa was finding a way to produce offensively despite his nagging injury. He hit .296/.377/.463 (.840) with three doubles and two home runs in 15 games. He tore the fascia in late September when planting his foot on a popup against the Reds. Team trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that this kind of tear can lead to less discomfort in the foot for players. Correa’s playoff performance pointed to him being back closer to 100 percent. He made multiple defensive plays that were game-changing moments and went 9-for-22 (.409 BA) with three doubles and four RBIs. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli spoke during the regular season about his own experience with plantar fasciitis. Like Baldelli, players have shared that it can take an entire offseason of rest for the injury to heal completely. Sometimes, players deal with the injury throughout their careers. Hopefully, Correa returns in 2024 without any lingering effects from his injury-plagued 2023 season. Future Payroll Considerations The Twins are dealing with a payroll crunch this winter due to their lucrative television deal expiring at the season’s end. Minnesota is expected to drop payroll this winter, which can impact multiple parts of the roster. Also, there is no clear solution to the club’s television rights problem. Cable companies are falling to the wayside, with households cutting the cord and switching to streaming options. It might be multiple seasons before the Twins find a solution and can return payroll to levels seen in 2023. In 2024, the Twins have some wiggle room with the payroll for multiple reasons. Many of their young players have yet to reach arbitration, which makes them very affordable. Also, Pablo Lopez will only cost $8.25 million before his contract jumps to over $21 million per season from 2025-27. These players will only get more expansive in 2025 and beyond. Correa’s salary accounted for roughly one-fifth of the team’s overall payroll last season. FanGraphs pegged Correa’s financial value at just over $9 million, a career-low total. When healthy, Correa has averaged well over $30 million in value per season. With the team dropping payroll, it’s even more imperative for Correa to match his previous production level. Front offices can regret trading away players or signing free agents to long-term contracts. The Twins knew there were health risks associated with signing Correa, but there was no way to predict this year’s injury issue. Correa is tied to the Twins for at least five more seasons, and his contract will impact the type of players the team can target on the open market. Twins fans saw the highest highs with Correa in the playoffs last season and the lowest lows with his regular-season production. Now, the front office faces the challenge of upgrading a roster with limited payroll flexibility due to contracts like Correa’s. If Correa was a free agent this winter, would the Twins attempt to sign him? Would he be able to get more guaranteed money this winter because of the poor shortstop class available via free agency? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Tim Anderson is pretty talented and has had an excellent career thus far. Outside of 2023, that is, when he played a role that mixed a little Charlie Brown, Frank Grimes, and Cory & Trevor into one godawful baseball experience. The Twins are set in the middle infield, but if they are looking for value, Anderson is it. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The White Sox just had one of the crummiest seasons you'll ever see. Given the results and future outlook, they may have still had a better year than the Angels, but we’re splitting hairs in that case. The Sox thought themselves contenders, and signed Mike Clevinger and Andrew Benintendi to decent-sized contracts. In fact, Benintendi’s was the largest free agent contract given out by the franchise in its history. Like the Twins going into 2023, the Sox figured that poor injury luck and underperforming their talent level in 2022 would course-correct into a contending season. Despite being less injured than the prior year, nothing went right from a performance, cohesion and soft skills standpoint. They lost 101 games, their PBO, GM and allegedly the entire clubhouse. They also lost Tim Anderson in more ways than one. He was their All-Star shortstop who up until this year played a decent shortstop while hitting .300 in his sleep. But in trying to play through an injury, his defense slipped and his hitting cratered, with only a single home run hit. He did manage to post 523 plate appearances. Speaking to MLB.com reporter Scott Merkin, Anderson offered the following assessment of 2023: A hitter's front leg is crucial to generating any sort of power. It's the same idea for golfers: the front leg acts as a brace so that the player can deliver the most force at the fullest extension without losing balance. So with an unstable lead leg, Anderson’s power dried up. His career average is 18 home runs per 162 games. We all know what happens to hitters that pitchers know can’t drive the ball. They bust them inside until they make a pitcher pay, which Anderson never really did. That is the easiest explanation as to Anderson’s fall off. The White Sox cut him a few weeks ago, declining a 14M option on his contract for 2024. I don’t know about you, but when I see the White Sox make a decision on something borderline, I make the assumption that they’re wrong. Anderson is a proud player, and Chicago is so dysfunctional that they turned that into a weakness. He played through an injury that everyone could tell was limiting him, and yet when the team was asked who their leaders were, all prominent players lowered their heads and pleaded the fifth. He got slapped by Yasmani Grandal when he criticized the catcher for skipping meetings. He then got punched out in front of the whole world by Jose Ramirez for daring to pull a Kent Hrbek on a young Guardians player the night before. He took the shot like a champ, and yet, the whole world renewed its adoration for Ramirez afterwards. Which struck me as weird, because Ramirez was the hostile actor in this case. He (or perhaps the entire Guardians clubhouse) is the one who took exception to the play the night before. He is the one who started jawing after a light tag on the butt from Anderson as he slid into second base. He was looking for some action, and although unbridled macho-ism is on the decline in baseball, it certainly reared its ugly head here. There was a thousand times more breathless coverage of Tom Hamilton’s radio call of the incident, than the fact that the face of the White Sox had been assaulted for the crime of trying to make some plays for a talented team that needed a big-time spark or seven. Anderson even got a longer suspension than Ramirez! (Also why are we in love with Ramirez when he's a hot head, chews tobacco, and left about 100M on the table to sign an extension with Cleveland. The MLBPA should hate this guy!) So let’s review: Anderson got hurt, and played through the injury. When that goes well, we call those players ‘warriors.” The clubhouse culture was clearly a problem. Anderson called out one of the worst perpetrators and got slapped. Rather than be lionized for his attempts to restore some order in Chicagoland, everyone just shrugged. He got punched and everyone took Jose Ramirez’s side. Anderson gave the White Sox 123 games despite being hurt, playing for a sorry team, and getting no support from seemingly anyone in the game. He could have lashed out. At the media, at the White Sox, at Ramirez. But he mostly stayed silent. Anderson has always been a head-down, focused and passionate player. If anyone stands a higher percent chance to rebound from the conditions they played in in 2023, it's Anderson (provided his knee is healthy next year). It would seem likely that Anderson will sign for a one year, 10M deal, or something similar. Perhaps he might want to join a division favorite with a shortstop used to being maligned by Twitter while he plays through an injury for almost an entire year. Maybe he might want to join a hard working clubhouse that would actually listen when he had something to say. The fit is not obvious in Minnesota. It would require the Twins to trade from their infield depth, although that is something they have indicated they will do. But beyond fit, it would seem to me that Anderson stands an excellent chance of getting to qualifying offer territory next year if he joins a team with a good, or at least a neutral, culture. He’s also right-handed with a palatable strikeout rate, and has offered to convert to second base. Any late inning heroics from him at Progressive Field will hit like a playoff win. What do you think? Should the Twins take a flier on their old rival? Sound off in the comments. View full article

The Twins have a good roster, but with potentially very little money to spend, as they start preparing for 2024. The Mets happen to be owned by a fellow with a lot of money who loves dynamic outfield prospects. Could a trade of Emmanuel Rodriguez for Pete Alonso make sense? Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a real team here. However, they fell short against the Astros, outclassed in their ability to take a professional at-bat. In addition to replacing the likely departing Sonny Gray, the Twins will have to decide whether adding a middle-of-the-lineup bat is worth pursuing. They could, and perhaps should, decide to allow the needed offensive improvement to come from within. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will hopefully steal at-bats away from whatever middling veterans the Twins sign/retain. They will get a full season from Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Byron Buxton might reemerge, and there isn’t much reason to doubt Carlos Correa’s track record. Maybe we’ll see more of catcher-OPS-leader Ryan Jeffers. Still, that doesn’t sound particularly imposing unless all of those players play to their 85th percentile or so of performance, while all staying healthy. So it might make sense to add an established, durable bat. The problem is, the Twins may not have any money to spend, given their uncertain TV-rights situation. So they would either need to drop significant salary by trading Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, or acquire a cheaper player that may cost a ransom in prospect capital from their middling farm system. Or maybe there is another way. Steve Cohen is still owner of the Mets, and may have a solution to the Twins conundrum that comes cheap salary-wise, while not costing their entire collection of top 100 prospects. The established bat in question is first baseman Pete Alonso. All five of his seasons have resulted in an OPS+ over 120. His lowest number of games played is 152 (he played 57 in 2020). His career platoon splits are separated by one hundredth of a percent. He has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games for his career, and while that may lead you to believe he is strikeout prone, that isn’t entirely true. His career strikeout rate is below the league average at 22.3% (vs 22.9% for the league). He has had multiple seasons in which he struck out under 20% of the time, pretty impressive for someone with that kind of power. Alonso will be 29 next year, in his final arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a hefty 22M salary. How would the cash-strapped Twins absorb that kind of salary? By trading away a prospect that catches Cohen’s eye. You see, Cohen is obsessed with building up his farm system, and has shown he is okay with throwing tens of millions of dollars to expedite the process, focusing on quality over quantity. He paid the Rangers 64M to take on the last year and a half of Max Scherzer’s contract in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, and the Astros got another 64M in exchange for Justin Verlander and their best prospect, Drew Gilbert. According to MLB.com, Gilbert ranks as the 52nd best overall prospect, while Acuna ranks 38th. In between them at 48th sits Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins’ third best prospect. It would seem to me that Cohen and his new PBO David Stearns, would be interested in acquiring a potential superstar slugger in Rodriguez in exchange for a player they don’t appear to be building around on an expiring salary. Chipping in 15M to make it happen would be pretty on brand, as well. Publicly, the Mets have expressed a desire to keep Alonso, however they were very direct towards Scherzer and Verlander in saying that 2024 will constitute a "competitive rebuild", leading to both pitchers agreeing to a trade. With Alonso a free agent in a year, he should be available. Rodriguez for one year of Alonso is still pretty risky. It's possible the “Polar Bear” would love playing for the Twins and be open to an extension a la Paul Goldschmidt with the Cardinals. But the reality is that any Alonso acquisition would likely be a one year pit stop for the slugger, while Rodriguez could debut as soon as 2024. And Rodriguez may be underrated at 48th best. Other publications have him ranked closer to the top 25, with immense power potential and elite strike zone recognition. His defense probably won’t be a major strength, but he runs pretty well and hit a huge grand slam in Cedar Rapids’ championship-clinching win a month ago. He’s been described as having a Max Muncy-type offensive profile, which paired with any sort of serviceable outfield defense and speed would be hugely valuable. But it probably means a batting average in the .210s, and that’s if things break right. If Rodriguez doesn’t adjust to the league and can’t get to his power, he’ll join a long list of failed power prospects who dominated the minor leagues but just had too many holes in their swing to thrive at the major league level. Brooks Lee is pretty much assured of being at least as good as, say, Gordon Beckham (terrible outcome, but rosterable), while Walker Jenkins could be Bryce Harper for all we know. We know prospects like Rodriguez flame out a lot, regardless of how great the farm system is. Some of the Muncy types make too little contact to matter, like the most recent iterations of Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo. Some guys are too passive at the plate, like the Twins were worried about with Edouard Julien. We also know the Twins have a somewhat similar player to Rodriguez in Matt Wallner, who has shown he can make at least some adjustments in the majors. To be clear, players like Rodriguez should be close to untouchable, but given the Mets' focus on stocking their minor league system with talent quickly, it might make more sense in this moment then it ever has to dangle him for a hitter like Alonso. What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this one? View full article

It feels odd to say, but his managing moves have largely worked, and his team broke the most exhausting streak in sports. Most of the criticisms he's faced are unfounded. Could Rocco Baldelli actually be an asset as manager? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success. Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players. Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics. Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado. Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario. Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office. And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters. It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched. It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half. It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel: In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched. In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters. Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over. The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs. More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position. The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that. Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%. And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively. The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then. The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too). For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more. Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth. If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first. Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat. In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries. The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part. It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing. Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him. Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know. Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli. Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli. There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier. It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility? View full article

Teams must hit on their free agent signings to succeed, especially when their payroll ranks in the middle of the league. How have the Twins done in recent years regarding signing free agent talent? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Baseball’s most successful organizations create rosters through player development, trades, and free agent signings. Historically, the Twins have attempted to build their core around young, homegrown talent while supplementing the roster in other ways. The current front office has tried to be more aggressive on the free agent market, but how have those results played out over the last handful of seasons? 2023 Offseason FA Signings: Carlos Correa (six-years, $200 million), Christian Vázquez (three-years, $30 million), Joey Gallo (one-year, $11 million), Donovan Solano (one-year, $2 million) 2023 spent: $56.3 million Total spent: $243 million Last winter, the Twins had Correa’s pending free agency looming over many of the team’s offseason decisions. His deals with the Mets and Giants didn’t work out due to concerns over an ankle injury from early in his professional career, and he ended up signing back with the Twins. Plantar fasciitis impacted his performance throughout the 2023 season, but he made multiple important plays on both sides of the ball during the playoffs. His contract will be looked at through a different lens because of the length and value. Hopefully, an offseason of rest and recovery will solve his injury issues from this season. Vázquez was a clear target for the Twins last winter, with Ryan Jeffers coming off a rough 2022 season. Minnesota likes to have a two-catcher rotation to keep both players fresh behind the plate. Overall, Vazquez posted a 65 OPS+ but remained a strong defender. Gallo posted a 1.063 OPS in the season’s first month before his performance dropped off significantly. Injuries elsewhere were likely the only reason he stayed on the roster for the entire season. Solano signed late in the offseason and provided a valuable veteran bat (110 OPS+, 1.8 rWAR). He is the most significant positive out of this free agent class. 2023 Grade: C-, the Twins don’t sign players like Correa, so it was nice to see the club make an aggressive move. However, most players didn’t live up to expectations. 2022 Offseason FA Signings: Carlos Correa (three-years, $105.3 million), Dylan Bundy (one-year, $5 million), Chris Archer (one-year, $3.5 million), Joe Smith (one-year, $2.5 million) 2022 spent: $46.1 million Total spent: $116.3 million Correa’s signing was unexpected, and the lockout changed the trajectory of the entire offseason. The Twins knew that Correa’s deal was likely for one season, and then he would likely opt out of the contract. Minnesota fell out of contention in the season’s final weeks, but that’s when Correa played at his best. He ended the season with a 138 OPS+, the second-highest total of his career. Minnesota’s other free agent signings couldn’t have gone much worse. Bundy and Archer started 54 games while each posting an ERA+ of 86 or lower. Injuries significantly impacted the team’s roster, and the Twins had to continue to trot out their veteran pitchers even though they were pitching below replacement level. Smith was limited to 34 appearances with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. None of these three pitchers made a big-league appearance during the 2023 season, which speaks to how bad they were in 2022. 2022 Grade: D, there were other options the Twins could have targeted for the rotation. Correa is the lone factor that saves this grade from being an F. 2021 Offseason FA Signings: Nelson Cruz (one-year, $13 million), Andrelton Simmons (one-year, $10.5 million), J.A. Happ (one-year, $8 million), Alex Colome (one-year, $6.25 million), Matt Shoemaker (one-year, $2 million), Hansel Robles (one-year, $2 million) 2021 spent: $41.5 million Total spent: $41.5 million Minnesota avoided signing any long-term deals leading into the 2021 season, which kept money off the books for future years. Cruz had been the heart and soul of the Twins roster in 2019 and 2020 while the team won back-to-back division titles. However, things didn’t work out for the club after a slow start to the season. At the trade deadline, the Twins traded Cruz’s expiring contract to the Rays in a deal that included Joe Ryan. Cruz posted a 148 OPS+ before the trade and a 101 OPS+ with Tampa. Colome gets a lot of the blame for the Twins' poor start to the season because he posted an 8.31 ERA and blew multiple saves in April. Happ and Shoemaker both had ERA+ totals of 63 or lower, and neither finished the season on the team’s roster. Simmons played 131 games at shortstop while hitting .223/.283/.274 (.558). He played 34 games for the Cubs in 2022 and didn’t appear in a big-league game during the 2023 campaign. Robles posted an ERA of around 5.00 and was sent to Boston at the trade deadline. 2021 Grade: F, the only positive was being able to snag Ryan from the Rays in the Cruz trade. Do you agree with these grades? Is there anything the Twins front office can learn from previous offseasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussions. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have signed players to a number of precedent-shattering contracts in the past few years. Let's take a look at how these long-term commitments might affect their ability to pursue other big-time deals this offseason. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009. Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million). These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were. Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option): In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.) So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit. The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration. Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60). The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25. This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely. But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility. Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason. If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter. View full article

Each playoff game can hinge on one pitch that is called a ball or a strike. During the 2023 postseason, umpires have tended to favor Twins opponents. Let's explore the numbers. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Being a major-league umpire is no easy task. It takes years of hard work and dedication to reach the big leagues, where pitchers throw triple-digit fastballs and breaking pitches with significant movement. There are also replays from multiple angles that show whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. Major League Baseball has experimented with automated strike zones and challenge systems in the minor leagues, but the human element is still part of America's Pastime. Umpires are evaluated throughout the regular season to earn spots on the field in the playoffs. These umps are supposed to be the best of the best, but teams and fans get even more upset with perceived bad calls in October. Umpire Scorecard on X (formerly known as Twitter) tracks umpire performance throughout the season. According to their website, "The @UmpScorecards platform relies on three key metrics to analyze umpire performance: accuracy (and expected stats), consistency, and favor. These metrics are calculated in house using algorithms inspired by others in the baseball community and developed by the @UmpScorecards team." Here's how the home plate umpires have fared so far in Minnesota's 2023 playoff games. Wild Card Series: Game 1 Umpire: Andy Fletcher Overall Favor (Runs): +1.46 Toronto Umpire Scorecard's model said Fletcher favored the Blue Jays by nearly 1.5 runs, including two of the three most influential calls going against the Twins. Edouard Julien should have drawn a walk with two runners on in the bottom of the second inning. His overall accuracy was slightly below the expected accuracy, but there were rough called strikes on both sides of the zone. Wild Card Series: Game 2 Umpire: Adam Hamari Overall Favor (Runs): +0.96 Toronto In Game 2, all three impactful missed calls went against the Twins, which made a tight game even closer. Sonny Gray was impacted the most by missed calls with two balls that should have been strikes, changing the trajectory of plate appearances. Hamari missed five calls on taken pitches during the game, which hurt the Twins more than the Blue Jays. ALDS: Game 1 Umpire: Brian Knight Overall Favor (Runs): +0.43 Houston Minnesota attempted to mount a late-inning comeback when Justin Verlander was awarded the most prominent missed call in Game 1. Carlos Correa batted with two outs and a runner on first base in the sixth inning. He was rung up on a ball significantly out of the strike zone. Overall, Knight missed four pitches, and the two biggest went against the Twins. ALDS: Game 2 Umpire: D.J. Reyburn Overall Favor (Runs): +0.77 Houston The top three missed calls all went against the Twins for the second time in the playoffs. Willi Castros' at-bat with the bases loaded in the seventh inning could have extended the lead and allowed the Twins to rest some of the club's high-leverage bullpen arms. The bottom of the strike zone was particularly bad for Reyburn, who incorrectly identified 13 pitches during the game. ALDS: Game 3 Umpire: Ben Miller Overall Favor (Runs): +0.31 Minnesota Tuesday's game at Target Field was the only time during the 2023 postseason where the home plate umpire favored the Twins. Even in this game, the most impactful missed call went against the Twins with Lewis' bases loaded at-bat in the fifth inning, starting with a called strike that was a ball. Miller missed most of his calls in the upper part of the zone, but his overall zone was relatively accurate, especially compared to some of the other umpires in the postseason. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in however many playoff games remain for the Twins. Will umpires continue to make more calls against Minnesota? Will a bad call eventually cost the Twins a win? Could the Twins have won Game 1 in Houston with better umpiring? One can hope that umpiring will improve as teams move deeper into the playoffs, but the Twins have been on the wrong side of every playoff game so far. What are your thoughts on the calls discussed above? Has umpiring impacted any of the Twins' results so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins fell short in the postseason, mainly due to a lack of hitting. Some players stepped up and established themselves as playoff threats, and others wilted under the pressure. Will the lineup be able to take the next step in 2024? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the conversation for the Twins in the playoffs finally changed. There were media outlets in September suggesting it would be good for the five seed to “tank” in order to face three-seeded Minnesota in the Wild Card round since “bulletin board material” didn’t apply to such a cursed franchise. But no longer can the Twins’ chances be reduced to a hand wave and a chuckle – they won as many games as they lost, including nearly handing the Astros a loss in the ALDS for the first time since the Obama administration. Now the conversation has to be (as with all playoff teams) what the Twins need in order to go further in 2024. They didn’t hit much against the Astros (or the Blue Jays for that matter), with a number of their hitters failing to eclipse the .600 mark in OPS for the two rounds. However, we did see evidence of a few guys who could terrify future playoff opponents by virtue of what they did in October 2023. Edouard Julien: He drew five walks in the six games, with three extra base hits and zero errors/misplays on defense. His OPS for the playoffs was a stout 1.043. He did make two baserunning errors, one ghastly (game one of the ALDS), and one a product of bad luck (game four). Julien showed that his blend of power and patience will play in the postseason. His home run and double in game four gave the Twins some life, and his pinch-hit, bases loaded, two-out single in game two sealed a win. He is a playoff caliber leadoff hitter. Royce Lewis: He posted an OPS over 1.100 in the playoffs, with four home runs that put him on the precipice of setting the Twins’ all-time playoff record. After six games. He appeared to press at times, swinging at some spiked breaking balls in crucial moments, but he’s also played in only 76 career games to this point, including the playoffs. Seeing more pitchers and how they attack him should make him even more of a threat next October. Carlos Correa: He also eclipsed a 1.000 OPS, and threw in some of the savviest shortstop play I have ever seen with his pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and deke of Jose Abreu. His performance sealed his reputation as a known quantity in the playoffs, regardless of how his regular season goes. In 2020, he posted an OPS lower than what he posted in 2023 sans any plantar fasciitis issues. In the playoffs he hit for a 1.209 OPS and six home runs in twelve games that year. That isn’t to say he is automatic in the playoffs, but he will be ready. Jorge Polanco: This one is borderline. Polanco’s .653 2023 playoff OPS doesn’t stand out, except when you compare it to the rest of the Twins’ lineup. He drew four walks and popped a key three-run home run in game one of the ALDS that drew a collective gulp from everyone in the stadium that day. Polanco has proven he can hit in the playoffs. He was one of the few players to show up for the 2019 ALDS, hitting a first inning homer in game one, then tying the game with a single in the fifth. His defense is another matter. He went about 1-4 in fielding chances against Toronto and the specter of his missed flip in 2020 still haunts me to this day. Outside of those hitters and Kyle Farmer, the rest of the position player group didn’t inspire much confidence. Playoff pitching just doesn’t compare to the regular season. It rewards superstars (Yordan Alvarez) and guys who play within themselves (Martin Maldonado). It can be hard to identify who will play the Jason Kubel (1-29 career in the postseason) role in a given playoff series, and the Twins had a few this year. Chief among those was Ryan Jeffers. Outside of two hits in game one of the ALDS, Jeffers contributed nothing offensively. Two walks and a lot of strikeouts. He hit some balls hard, but he also made you wonder if keeping the playoff-tested Christian Vazquez on the bench for every game was the right move. Watching Vazquez’s at-bats down the stretch compared to Jeffers’ catcher-leading OPS made it a justifiable decision, but giving Vazquez a start or two may have butterfly-effected an extra scoring opportunity. We’ll never know. Matt Wallner went hitless in twelve plate appearances for the playoffs, although he did contribute three walks and a key hit-by-pitch. His inability to make contact against jumpy fastballs was exposed, and he’ll have to work and adjust in order to avoid a reputation as a mistake crusher who wilts against good pitching. Max Kepler was victimized by two terrible strike three calls against Houston, and he did collect a hit in his first five games of the playoffs. But even at his best, Kepler isn’t a cleanup hitter for a serious playoff lineup. He struck out 14 times in the six games and was worth -1.6% cWPA (championship win probability added) against the Astros. As a seven hole hitter, his skill set would play a lot better. Alex Kirilloff was playing through a torn labrum in his lead hitting shoulder, and performed as such. He is a little jumpy at the plate, even when healthy (taking strikes, then swinging at balls). But his elite plate coverage and all-fields power could be a major asset on future playoff teams. Now, having only three hitters clicking at the same time can certainly play in the playoffs. The 2019 Nationals provided proof of that concept with Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon delivering a World Series championship that year. But ideally, you would want more lineup depth than that. Wallner has shown an ability to make adjustments, Jeffers has shown an ability to hit good pitching, Byron Buxton is always a wild card, and Kirilloff has shown the skill set to succeed in October. But if the front office doesn’t add another big bat this offseason, that may be a decision they could come to regret, especially given that the pitching will be hard-pressed to match this year's production. What do you think? Is the projected 2024 lineup good enough to take the next step as is, or does it need another piece? Sound off in the comments. View full article

Kyle Farmer provided critical depth for the Twins during the 2023 season. Looking ahead to next season, the Twins would be wise to put Farmer on the trading block. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Last winter, the Twins didn’t have a clear option at shortstop. Carlos Correa tested the free-agent waters for the second straight season, and Royce Lewis was recovering from his second ACL surgery. Minnesota needed someone to man one of baseball’s most important positions, so the club traded for Kyle Farmer. Farmer had spent the previous two seasons as a regular with the Cincinnati Reds, where he offered some defensive flexibility and occasional pop with his bat. Minnesota felt like Farmer could be a bridge player to keep shortstop warm until Lewis was ready to return. Correa’s free agency saga took many twists and turns before ending up back in Minnesota. His signing changed Farmer’s role for the 2023 campaign, but he continued to provide value. Entering the season, Farmer had an 86 OPS+ for his career, finishing the season with a career-high 97 OPS+. He missed time during the season after taking a pitch to the face that required multiple surgeries. Farmer added depth across the diamond, including playing over 200 innings at shortstop, third base, and second base. The Twins were able to use him in Baldelli's platoon system, to fill in for injured players, and he more than held his own. Overall, it was a solid 2023 season, and the Twins might have more than one reason to trade Farmer this winter. Farmer is in his final year of arbitration, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $6.6 million. To some, that might be a high salary for a bench player who doesn’t project to be in the lineup daily. For some perspective, FanGraphs has valued Famer at $11.9 million or more in each of the last three seasons, including $12.6 in 2023. Other teams will also understand his value, which might make him a hot trade commodity. There have been outstanding classes of free-agent shortstops in the last two winters. Fans might feel this is the norm, but that is far from the truth. There won’t be any names like Correa, Trea Turner, or Corey Seager on the market this winter. So, teams might look for alternative shortstop options similar to what the Twins did last winter. Farmer is under team control for a cheap one-year deal and can handle shortstop while a club waits for a younger player to take his place. The Twins also don’t need to rush into any trade involving Farmer. Last winter, the club traded Gio Urshela, and the trade return was underwhelming. Minnesota also shopped some of their corner outfield options but didn’t like the value they were getting from other clubs. It would be in the Twins’ best interest to hope for a bidding war, especially with the lackluster free-agent market. Minnesota’s infield depth chart looks relatively complete, even without Farmer. Correa should play nearly every day at shortstop, and Lewis will be next to him at the hot corner. Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien will both see time at second base, with Julien also figuring into the first base equation. Top prospect Brooks Lee finished the season at Triple-A and should be ready for a call-up by mid-season. Farmer provided a veteran leadership to the 2023 Minnesota Twins that shouldn’t be forgotten. His time with the team would have looked very different if Correa hadn’t returned to Minnesota. Instead, the Twins might be able to cash in on his final year of team control and help the club fill a different need for next season. Should the Twins trade Farmer? What is a suitable return? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

He was just named a Gold Glove finalist, but the data suggests Carlos Correa's formerly elite glove is not what it once was. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports When it comes to defense in baseball, often the defensive metrics just don't match up to the eye test or general consensus. One famous example would be Derek Jeter, who won five Gold Gloves in his career and was widely considered a premier shortstop, despite the fact that fielding statistics consistently rated him as below-average. Carlos Correa, conversely, is not a player whose fielding has been overrated relative to statistics. If anything, the opposite is true. Or it was. Metrics like Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) consistently viewed Correa as one of the most impactful shortstops in the league throughout most of his career. From 2018 through 2021, here's where Correa ranked among shortstops in OAA, and among all MLB players as a percentile factor. 2018: 23 OAA – 2nd in MLB, 100th percentile 2019: 11 OAA – 7th in MLB, 96th percentile 2020: 4 OAA – 9th in MLB, 94th percentile 2021: 10 OAA – 6th in MLB, 96th percentile Genuinely elite defense, year after year. Aided by his incredible arm, quick reactions, and strong instincts, Correa overcame a lack of standout foot speed to continually rank as one of the rangiest shortstops in the game. Culminating with a Platinum Glove award in 2021 that recognized him as the best overall defender in the game, fielding was a huge part of Correa's value proposition when the Twins signed him in 2022, and then re-signed him to a historic long-term deal in 2023. Yet, ever since joining the Twins, Correa's defensive metrics have been completely out of line with his previous track record. In his first season here, Statcast had Correa producing negative-3 Outs Above Average, which ranked 32nd among shortstops (100+ attempts) and in the 18th percentile among all big-leaguers. We all wondered if perhaps that 2022 season would prove to be an outlier, and Correa's defensive numbers would bounce back toward career norms this year. Turns out he did, a little. Correa ranked 25th among shortstops with 1 OAA, a figure that placed him in the 64th percentile for big-leaguers. Not bad, but much more average than great, and probably not a result that lines up to the eye test for most Twins fans and (apparently) Gold Glove voters. Elsewhere, signs of a sudden yet sustained drop-off are even more vivid. Here's how Correa has rated out according to FanGraphs' Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) metric over the past six years: 2018: 17.3 in 110 games 2019: 9.6 in 75 games 2020: 5.6 in 58 games 2021: 14.5 in 148 games 2022: 2.1 in 136 games 2023: 3.5 in 135 games What to make of this stark decline in statistical defensive proficiency? It's hard to say that the metrics are missing something in Correa's performance given how consistently they assigned him massive defensive value prior to his time with the Twins. I think there are a few different reasons that Twins fans might perceive Correa's defense as more positively impactful than it has verifiably been. One is simply reputation. When you're treated by media and popular narratives as a great defender, it's a rep that tends to gain traction and stick, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Jeter benefited from this. Another thing is that Correa is just a really good, smart, smooth ballplayer. He doesn't commit many errors. It may not be all that visibly noticeable when he misses a grounder that he'd have gathered a few years ago, or that some of the other top shortstops in the league would get to. On any given play, the incredible caliber of his arm alone could easily convince someone he's a top-tier defensive SS regardless of any other data. There's also this: Correa is a clutch. He steps up and makes big plays in big moments. We certainly saw that in the playoffs. The Athletic's Eno Sarris wrote this week about the concept of clutchness in baseball. His data-driven analysis is an interesting one, but what I find most striking is the way performances in big moments shape our memories and perceptions. As Eno put it in a radio interview, "If you have an emotion tied to a memory, you're going to remember it more." In this light, it's easy to see why momentous plays like Correa's game-ending backhand stab in Houston, or his heady throw home against Toronto – not to mention all those big-time highlights in years past – have an outsized influence on the way we think of him. Emotions and subjectivity have a major impact on the so-called eye test, which is why many observers are prone to overrate Correa's current defensive impact just as they did with Jeter throughout his career. So what does this all mean? Not a ton in the short term, necessarily. Even if you agree, based on the evidence, that Correa is no longer quite as strong defensively as his Gold Glove nomination would suggest, no one's arguing that Correa is a liability at shortstop, or that he should be moved somewhere else next year. Even as his range diminishes, Correa remains a steady and sure-handed infield captain. His leadership and intelligence at a position where smart split-second decision-making is invaluable will help C4's continue to be an asset at shortstop even if his physical tools are beginning to dullen. But the undeniable data trend does lead you to wonder. What's at the root of this statistical defensive decline? Is he already showing signs of aging at 29? Are the health concerns in his lower body – an ankle that's structurally worrisome, and now a nagging case of plantar fasciitis – taking their permanent toll? These will be things to keep an eye on moving forward. It is worth noting that Correa was ready to move to third base if he signed in New York, and the nature of his contract with the Twins (salaries declining quickly in the later years) seems to imply that an eventual position switch is expected from all parties. Everyone seems to understand that it's a matter of if, not when, Carlos Correa will stop playing shortstop. Even if he wins a Gold Glove this year, a deeper look his declining defensive value – not to mention the physical state of his body – makes clear that the day could come sooner than many anticipate. View full article

We all dig the long ball! If you're like us, you really liked these 2023 Twins home runs. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports With the season now at a bittersweet end, Twins fans should consider what matters most: our favorite moments when hitters smashed a ball out of the park. Although this list is entirely subjective, I did my best to collect a diverse set of well-timed dingers from the season. Let's review. 13. Joey Gallo Breaks Statcast vs. Hayden Wesneski (Cubs), May 13. Exit Velocity: 110.6 mph, Distance: 422 feet Most Twins fans would probably be happy to forget Joey Gallo’s frustrating Twins tenure. But the former Ranger had a monster start to the season, including a 1.066 OPS in the first month. In particular, how could anyone forget Gallo’s monster three-run shot against Cleveland that broke Statcast, the analytics tracker. Speculation about the distance of the ball took over Twins Twitter—did Gallo break 500 feet?—before the reported distance came in at a surprisingly minuscule 422 feet (the culprit turned out to be the poor launch angle; in fact, Alex Kirilloff hit one the same distance that day). But for those watching, the eye test made it seem like Gallo smacked it to another dimension. 12. Max Kepler Comes in the Clutch vs. Paul Sewald (Diamondbacks), August 6. Exit Velocity: 110.4 mph, Distance: 438 feet Max Kepler was the consensus favorite among Twins Daily writers for Most Improved Player of the Year. Continually cited as a DFA candidate throughout the early months, Kepler's sudden power surge came at opportune times, including several late innings smacks that often turned the scoreboard back in Minnesota’s favor. Just a week after the trade deadlines, Kepler faced down Mariners-turned-Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. Down a run going into the bottom of the ninth, Kepler wasted no time and launched the pitch to tie the game. It was one of several moments that the right fielder made count in the second half. 11. Matt Wallner Goes Very, Very Far vs. Paul Blackburn (Athletics), September 26, Exit Velocity: 114.5 mph, Distance: 463 feet There was a lot of hope for Matt Wallner coming into the season after his late-season debut in 2022. Even during a slump late in the season, Wallner continued to get on base and prove his worth. During a final week game against the Athletics, Wallner smoked one from starter Paul Blackburn with the bases loaded a massive 463 feet, one of the longest home runs of the season that had fans in the upper deck scrambling for a ball they never expected to land anywhere near them. Expect a lot more like that next season. 10. Carlos Correa Declares His Time vs. Devin Williams (Brewers), June 13, Exit Velocity: 108.6 mph, Distance: 408 feet It became a running joke in my household that I would declare Carlos Correa finally “back,” only to watch another week of struggles due to his injuries. Correa’s lack of clutch hitting this season may have frustrated Twins fans, though most writers on this site would argue his playoff performance wiped away the slate. Even within that struggle, Correa found quite a few moments to awe fans and teammates alike. None felt like a personal victory, as much as a bottom of the 9th smack against the Brewers. Closer Devin Williams had already given away the lead on a Michael A. Taylor home run. Fans were already joking that Correa was due for a double play with a runner on first. Instead, the shortstop took a 1-1 pitch deep to left field to walk it off. He immediately pointed at his wrist in one of his classic moves: “It’s my time.” 9. Ryan Jeffers Lasers the Ball vs. Bryan Abreu (Astros), May 29, Exit Velocity: 117.4 mph, Distance: 374 feet There were several highlights as Ryan Jeffers rose from backup catcher to Joe Mauer’s apparent heir, as both the team and fans saw a swing that seemed full of dynamite. What has always made Jeffers’s dingers fun is how incredibly unique they are. Rather than get the right launch angle, the dingers look like cruise missiles. How else can you categorize this critical extra inning hit against the Astros in May? Coming off the bat at 117 mph, look at how quickly the ball gets out to the Crawford Boxes. It’s a shame Jeffers could not match it during the ALDS, but the potential remains. 7-8. Byron Buxton Obliterates It…Twice vs. Brandon Walter (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 112.2 mph, Distance: 466 feet vs. Justin Garza (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 111.9 mph, Distance: 465 feet Fans will debate the contours of Byron Buxton’s disappointing season, not only due to the injuries that once again plagued his availability but also the poor performance as a Designated Hitter. Although the All-Star had transformed himself from a hit-and-run guy into a power hitter, the DH position seemed to change his mental stance and balloon his strikeout rate. But when that power came, it sure did. His June 22nd game against the Red Sox showed the Buxton that we all desperately desired, pulverizing not just one but two dingers. The first was 466 feet, and the second nearly matched it at 465 feet. No hitter since the Statcast Era began had ever hit multiple home runs over 460 feet. Buxton’s response? “They all count the same, so if they go over, they all feel good.” Let’s see it again next year, Buck. 3-4-5-6. Royce Lewis, Holy S**T! vs. Xzavion Curry (Guardians), August 27, Exit Velocity: 98.2 mph, Distance: 393 feet vs. Chris Stratton (Rangers), August 28, Exit Velocity: 111.7 mph, Distance: 423 feet vs. Lucas Giolito (Guardians), September 4, Exit Velocity: 107.6 mph, Distance: 401 feet vs. Jesse Scholtens (White Sox), September 15, Exit Velocity: 99.9 mph, Distance: 397 feet How can you even begin to explain it? Royce Lewis, He is Him. Lewis hit four grand slams throughout the season, a ridiculous record that already put him on the top of numerous Twins record lists. They all came after he spent over a month recovering from an oblique strain, almost like he was never injured in the first place. Luck is always a factor in whether a player will even have an opportunity, but Lewis relished it. None of these dingers were particularly unique, but the fact it kept happening, repeatedly felt like a new page of baseball had arrived in Minnesota. If I had to choose only one, I would choose the third against Cleveland. The smash against Lucas Giolito made the game a 6-0 ball game, and, more importantly, signaled to the still barely in-the-running Guardians that their season was over. The Era of Lewis has arrived. 1-2. Royce Lewis Breaks the Curse vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 105.5 mph, Distance: 386 feet vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 104.2 mph, Distance: 397 feet I initially began drafting this list before the playoffs. Only minutes into Minnesota’s first playoff game did it become apparent I needed a different home run to top this list. The game that ended Minnesota's 0-18 playoff curse perhaps surprised some as boppers from both sides of the plate went quiet - except one. Minnesota beat the Blue Jays 3-1. The entire difference was, once again, Royce Lewis. Lewis put himself and the entire Twins team on the map through his dingers to left and then to center, both off Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman. Only to add insult to injury, these were his first two plate appearances in over a week after a hamstring pulled him out of the regular season. The man could barely run to first base, and here he was, creating a Minnesota Miracle. By the end of the team’s run, Lewis popped four home runs over the six playoff games. The cruelest part of the end of the Twins season? Having to wait a whole year for Lewis to cement his name as a new "Mr. October." Did you have any favorite home runs from the season? (Perhaps from the Yankees series?) Include them in the comments below. View full article