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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm very interested to see what a healthy Charlee Soto looks like in 2026; I think he could take a major leap if he's able to stay on the field. I'm more than a little concerned that the Twins might have screwed up Rojas' development by pushing him too aggressively last season; to me he looked like a player that was not ready for AAA, but the team left him up there in a misguided attempt to justify an unpopular trade. I hope I'm wrong. There's quite a bit of talent in the Twins farm system. The challenge as of late has been in making the last step it seems.
  2. jmlease1
    I was a big Julien backer, but he hasn't done enough to merit a spot on the roster; beyond that he's a poor fit to back up Clemens or any of the likely DH candidates (LH bats all). While he's on the 26-man by default based on his lack of options, this is where sunk cost fallacy comes into play. It's frankly the biggest concern I have about Outman: rather than "lose the asset" they'll keep a player who isn't good enough to be on a MLB roster hanging around. I'm not even very enthusiastic about keep Larnach, and he's been far better than either Outman or Julien over the past 2 seasons at the plate. I don't hate the lineup that much outside of these problems, but it's predicated on better health or performance from several guys: Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lee, while having continued health/success from Buxton, Jeffers (who wasn't great last season), and Martin. And that can go wrong in a hurry. The rotation looks great, right up until the Cheap Pohlads force us to trade Lopez or Ryan. But right now? That's a pretty dang good rotation, especially if Ober bounces back. Bullpen still needs experience and Kline doesn't have it. I don't mind running with some of the younger guys and converting some starters, but they need to add a guy who has experience late in games. I question whether Preilipp will go bullpen from the jump, but I'm here for it.
  3. jmlease1
    Well, first off you appear to be misrepresenting what replacement level means in the context of WAR. That's for guys who put up a negative WAR which yeah...you can find cheaply and off the street. WAR doesn't presume that you can replace a starting quality player easily or cheaply, which is why they value 1 WAR at $8M or so. Have the Twins found a consistent replacement for Rosario in LF? No, but they've certainly replaced Rosarios production since he left...because Eddie stopped being good. Twins got solid production in the COVID season in 2020 (OPS+ of 116 with decent defense in the smaller sample). After that, it hasn't been good for Rosario and the Twins still look smart for not investing playing time or financial resources in him. Atlanta got overly excited by a hot run down the stretch and handed him a big contract, that immediately blew up in their faces. In a fairly similar amount of playing time (overall) from 2021 through 2025, Trevor Larnach was in fact better than Eddie Rosario, and much much cheaper. Because of injuries and lack of production, Larnach hasn't been able to seize the LF job on a permanent basis, but drop Rosario's production in there and things are even worse. Martin is an intriguing option for LF in 2026, because he finally started to look comfortable out there and his ability to get on base was strong enough to make up for not having any real pop in his bat, and his speed on the bases offset the mistakes. If he produces like he did in 2025 for an entire season, he's a solid starting LF that provides speed, defense, and a solid ability to avoid outs, while not adding anything for power. Roden has a higher upside, because he looks like he could potentially play all 3 outfield positions credibly or better, could have some decent pop in his bat, and might avoid outs effectively. But his hit tool hasn't shown up yet. (BTW, Roden has a better track record as a hitter in the minors than...Eddie Rosario) He should get chances in MLB this season. I'd rather give Martin the starting job out the gate because I think Larnach's upside is pretty limited and Martin adds more things. Roden should get chances in LF, RF, and CF to play and show he can hit. If we're adding in a prospect to compete for OF time (and I believe we should), I'd make it at the expense of Wallner in the OF, moving the moose to DH, but not having Larnach on the team at all. Regardless, I'm not really missing Eddie Rosario in LF. 2018 Eddie? Sure. But that guy ain't been around for a long time.
  4. jmlease1
    It'd be one thing if he was 28, but he's not. Where's the evidence that he plays even a competent 1B and that his knee would hold up to a MLB schedule? Can he actually catch up to MLB fastballs or is he just punishing lower velocity and mistakes? At best he'd be worth giving a minor-league contract to. Which he probably doesn't take, especially from the Twins (it's hard for someone who was an all-star with a club to accept a make-good deal in the minors; pride gets in the way). Maybe he's healthy and has his head right. But he's played less than 50 games in the US since 2022, so doesn't really look like an MLB player any longer.
  5. jmlease1
    You're not wrong. It's not hard at all to see a world where they rebuild a chunk of the bullpen, add a solid RH bat to play 1B/DH, dump some of the reclamation projects off the roster with promising rookies/prospects, and be able to think: hey, with a few breaks this team could be pretty good and should at least be interesting and fun to watch. (I'm less excited about bringing back Spencer Steer, who hasn't been a league-average hitter since 2023 and has been on a decline since his breakout in 2023, despite good health and plenty of PT) You can see a path forward that's fairly reasonable and wouldn't require breaking the bank. But it's even easier to see the Cheap Pohlads forcing more payroll cuts, sunk costs like Outman lingering on for months, and players like Wallner & Lewis not having the bounce back years they need in order to make it happen. I think the article pinpoints exactly where the biggest tells are for what the franchise intends. Never listen to what front office people SAY, watch what they DO. Same goes for managers, owners, etc. I don't care what Falvey says at the Winter Meetings (I'm not going to get mad about it, either). I'll understand what you really meant when I know where Pablo Lopez is starting Opening Day, or Kody Clemens is handed the everyday 1B job, or we sign or don't sign a veteran reliever with some experience at the end of games. (personally, I think we'll know something if Outman gets handed a roster spot on scholarship too, but YMMV)
  6. jmlease1
    LOL. I recall when people were peddling what a "great" deal StL got for Gray and how much the Twins were going to regret "letting" him go. StL is so ready to move him along that they're eating that much salary? Says more than a few things right there.
  7. jmlease1
    I don't know if I'm ready to give an up arrow to Amick, but unless you're really taking the AFL struggles as a sign of what's to come, he has to stay flat at least. The injuries were a bummer; he has to stay on the field. But he handled things quite well in Cedar Rapids with respectable power and patience throughout the season. There's no "horrible second half" for him as much as "didn't play enough". And I agree: the defense was better than advertised at 3B, enough that it's more than reasonable to keep playing him there while also giving him time at 1B. Amick had a pretty successful season, marred only by health. It'll be interesting to see where DeBarge and Amick start the season in 2026 and might tell some things about where the Twins see their stock...
  8. jmlease1
    So the prospects won't be good enough and the free agents are above our price point. What exactly would your plan be then? SS is not a strength right now for the Twins, so we're back to where we were before bringing Correa in. Twins have been patching it together at SS for decades.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm not nearly as high on DeBarge as some. Sure the steals are fun, but it's A-ball, where the catching is all over the place, and the pitchers are wildly inconsistent at holding runners on. The real issue is all pop vanished from his bat by June, and his hitting got worse and worse as the season went along. If we're supposed to be concerned about Amick because of how he finished the season and his struggles in the AFL (during an injury-riddled season), shouldn't we be at least as concerned about DeBarge who finished the season looking lost and overwhelmed at the plate? Lot of K's for someone with no power. The walks will decline rapidly as he goes up in levels if he can't show he can make contact and do damage, so even if the steals are an indicator or being a weapon on the bases, what good will it do if he can't get on there consistently? For me his stock didn't change much, with the decline at the plate throughout the season offsetting the speed/defense last season. Impressed with Hill and Culpepper. We'll see if anyone else emerges.
  10. jmlease1
    There's a variety of reasons some people are still upset, it's not just a linear action of people being bad they weren't playing the young guys and now being forced to play the supposed young guys. There's the people who hate Falvey, and won't be happy until he's fired; there's the crew that won't be happy until the Twins get rid of guys who strike out a lot and start bunting more; there's those who thought we were finally moving on from the Cheap Pohlads and had the rug pulled out from under us, etc. That said, a lot of people are asking to see the prospects and let them sink or swim, but there's no real evidence that the Twins are planning on that happening yet. There's definitely some inexperienced players who will be relied on, but it sure looks like a lot of the top prospects in the high minors won't be starting with the team. Outman & Larnach are looking like they're on the 26-man and they're neither young nor prospects of any kind at this point. (Martin isn't all that young any longer either, but at least he played well last season) Clemens isn't young, and isn't a prospect. Lewis isn't a young prospect any longer either. Even in the pitching we don't know who is getting a chance; are we actually going to see Raya & Preilipp in the bullpen or are we going to see a bunch of dumpster-diving bullpen candidates in Spring Training and even guys like Adams and Ohl still trying to land a job? So far the only young prospects that are somewhat locked in are Keaschall (who needs to stay healthy) and Lee (who isn't that young since he was a college player and has been up in MLB in 2024 & 2025). Julien will be 27 coming off back-to-back poor seasons. Larnach will be 29 and struggled. Outman will also be 29 and has declined in the field and is a horrible mess at the plate. Roden's the baby of the group and will be 26. Clemens will be 30. All of them are likely to need time in the OF or at DH and just their presence on the roster makes it harder for guys like Gonzalez, Rodriguez, or Jenkins to get time absent injury. None of them were good in 2025. It's not a real youth movement. And there's a bunch of sunk costs that the Twins can't move on from.
  11. jmlease1
    Not sure with Lowe; which guy would we get? The one who looked lost at the plate in DC or the guy who bounced back in Boston? Does he return towards career averages in 2026 or has the slide begin for him? Should we expect career splits or is he going to get murdered by LHP for the rest of his career? (this would matter less if Kody Clemens wasn't the other 1B) Just don't know. Think I'd rather sign the RH bat? The OF are both eff no. we don't need non-tender OF right now; frankly we have too many guys cluttering up the roster in the OF already (am I interested in more of the sunk cost of James "my name now represents me" Outman? No.) and I'm more interested in seeing what Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins than I am with another retread. I'd rather see more of Roden than either of these clowns.
  12. jmlease1
    Jackson has always been solid defensively, which is why he keeps getting chances to stick as someone's backup. If he hits at all he'll be a nice player at a reasonable price. It comes down to whether or not you think the adjustments he made and results he put up last season are reflective of where he is as a hitter or just a small-ish sample size fluke? As noted in the article, there are underlying metrics to suggest that he may have found something. His MLB track record prior to 2025 as a hitter has been pretty poor, but he has hit in AAA. Considering how poor Vazquez was as a hitter the past 2 seasons and just how low the bar is for catchers as hitters in MLB, this could end up as an upgrade at a much more palatable price. Better than Pereda? We'll see.
  13. jmlease1
    Nice trolling putting Royce Lewis on this list. Gonzalez should be ahead of Fitz, Kreidler, or McCusker and if he's not then we're pretty damn stupid. Frankly, I'd rank him ahead of Outman, who I think is unsalvageable and a waste on the roster and spending a 26-man spot on him with better prospects with higher upside is foolish. Ranking Martin below Roden after last season is weird. Martin was good, showing an offensive skillset that while lacking in power was still effective and he showed real improvement in LF. Roden was dreadful at the plate, and while he may be a higher rated prospect at this point, Martin has substantially out-performed him in MLB. Frankly, Martin should be above Larnach, whose mediocrity on offense and lack of defense has him as a fringe roster player. Martin is looking like a solid contributor.
  14. jmlease1
    The injury issue is going to be with him until he shows that he can stay on the field. But the talent is real. Personally, I would prefer to give him a shot to win a job out of spring training (along with Roden, Gonzalez, Jenkins, and Fedko) than keep Larnach on the roster. Emma can play a credible CF, and an OF alignment of Martin in LF, Buxton in CF, and Rodriguez in RF allows Wallner to spend more time at DH with someone like Roden (who has little to prove at AAA) as the 4th OF and now you have an OF that defends well with good speed and the potential to hit, while finding out more about what we really have in some of these players. We'd still be a little too LH at times, but I'd rather be looking this way than hoping against hope that Larnach gets better at 29. Play the kids. We've got 5 outfield prospects with AAA or better experience (not including Outman, who I think is a lost cause) and while Jenkins might be the only "sure thing" while still needing a little more time to develop, what are we really waiting for? Even if Rodriguez gets nicked up and struggles to stay on the field, we still have other guys ready to step in. It's not 2022, when we ran out of OF and didn't have any options to call up in the minors. Either these guys are legit prospects or they aren't.
  15. jmlease1
    There's no real 40-man roster reason to "need" to non-tender Larnach; there's several candidates that could be DFA'd without any real consequence (McCusker is an obvious choice that even plays OF, but there are several others). To me, if Larnach is non-tendered it's about money and the Cheap Pohlads setting the payroll at a very low level for 2026. I hope he's traded rather than non-tendered, but I suspect there's little market for him. He's a league-average platoon bat with no real defensive value, some injury history, who is getting more expensive, turning 29 before the season starts, and has limited upside. Not sure who is clamoring to pay that guy $4-5M; I expect he either signs a 1-year deal as a free agent in the $2-3M range or goes to Japan/Korea.
  16. jmlease1
    I don't think re-examination of Hunter's case for the Hall gets him any closer to induction. It's a really long road to go from where he sits to the 75% needed for induction, and he'd need a really substantial jump right now to build enough momentum to get anywhere close. Beyond that, as much as I loved Torii as a player for the Twins, he's the classic example of the Hall of Very Good. He was never really bad (probably just played too much the last two seasons) once he got established in MLB, but he also wasn't consistently great. he got 4 all-star nods which was quite frankly...very fair. It's hard to say he deserved more of them just maybe that he got the nods in some years he maybe shouldn't have and was passed over in some years where he was deserving. It even out. He never had the big MVP season; the one time he finished in the top 10 for AL MVP he easily had the worst season of anyone in the top 10 voting (it probably should have gone to A-Rod that year but Texas stunk). It's hard to say he was overlooked in MVP voting. He's remembered for his defense, but his defense had slipped long before he stopped getting Gold Gloves. A very good player, who was very good for a really long time. But not better than Lofton or Edmonds (who were contemporaries), or Andruw Jones (another contemporary) who had a much higher peak. You have to rate Hunter's late career consistency pretty high (and it is impressive how he stayed a very good player well into his 30's) to push him up. Loved watching him play (although the yahoo hero-ball play he tried and failed to make against the A's in the Dome still drives me crazy all these years later), and he's a Twins Hall of Famer for sure. But not MLB Hall of Famer.
  17. jmlease1
    Aggie started for the Twins when he first came over (he'd only just moved to the Mets bullpen full-time in '89). Reardon was the one who was an established closer when he came over to the Twins.
  18. jmlease1
    I think there's little chance we see Rojas in the bullpen or the rotation any time soon. Yes, his stuff is impressive, but he was pushed too quickly last season and got throttled in AAA. He needs real development work and while he can probably get past last seasons crapitude, this is not a pitcher who is anywhere near ready. He's never made 20 professional starts. He's never thrown 100 innings. he only had 4 starts in AA last season. He only made 9 starts in AAA and struggled in most of them, and even in his best outings wasn't efficient at all. He should have been in Wichita last season, and there's a fair argument to make that he should start 2026 there regardless. Notably, he didn't even pitch the first 2 months of the season last year. Loads of talent, nowhere near ready.
  19. jmlease1
    I doubt he's getting serious consideration as the backup 1B to Kody Clemens, but he's still on the 40-man, so they'll throw the idea out there at this point in the offseason. They can at least pretend to the agents of the world that they're not desperate to find a cheap RH 1B/DH type to add to the roster. I was on Team Julien, and really thought he could be a hitter for the Twins, but it's increasingly looking like he's not been able to adapt to how MLB pitching attacks him. It's not a done deal that he can't figure something out; unlike Miranda, when he got shipped back to AAA he hit credibly for the Saints and he does have good recognition of the strike zone. But he's not a realistic candidate for 1B unless there's an injury, and his defensive chops aren't good enough for him to contribute much if he's not hitting. He's a platoon bat with some real deficits right now. To be fair, he did hit well enough to close out the season (though the lack of pop in his bat was concerning), but he was also terrible in August, so betting on him to be like he was in September is the sort of thing that got me foolishly overhyped about Chris Parmelee back in the day.
  20. jmlease1
    Teams can roster 39, but few do for more than brief periods except during the off-season.
  21. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about Fedko, but he's going to be hard to stash on a MLB roster for a full season. After a good half season at AAA at 26 is he really going to be in high demand and ready to hit in MLB from the jump? It's possible he's LaMonte Wade Jr part II, but Wade had at least gotten a couple of cups of coffee in MLB (without getting destroyed) before he got plucked by the Giants. I understand taking the risk. I'm not sure I understand keeping McCusker on the 40-man?
  22. jmlease1
    Glad to see Winokur playing 3B. I'm joining the party of people who can see that he's not going to have a future at SS (especially with multiple people ahead of him who are all better at actually playing SS) so time to move him off there and see where the right fit will be for him in the future. With his power, I can see 3B and her has the arm for it. With his speed, I could see him in the OF. With his size I could see him being great at 1B. Let's figure that out while he figures out how to hit. Boadas did well. Good stretch for him getting back on the mound and letting his arm talent play. I'll be interested to see how his command plays in the minors in 2026 and what level he spends most of his time. He'll definitely have to bring down the free passes, but he's sown some intriguing talent. Rough run for Billy Amick. I'm sure he was hoping to get back some of the rhythm he had before he got hurt in Cedar Rapids this season and impress, but he just didn't get going. Time to take some time off, get some rest, then get started on a good off-season program. Forget about the AFL, Billy. I hoped to see Mendez play more and see how he looked at 1B, but looks like life got in the way. Hopefully everything is ok for him and his family and he can go kick butt in 2026. I think he starts in AAA, and I hope he shows enough to look like a real option at 1B in the future. He had a fine 2025 and didn't miss a beat after the trade, so here's hoping he keeps on raking.
  23. jmlease1
    I think Royce just went through a run where his immense physical talent no longer was enough to pull him out of his struggles. We'll see whether he's able to keep working on his craft, make adjustments, overcome any physical limitations he might now have and get back on track. It's hard to believe that he'll continue to be so poor at the plate, but it does happen. It was somewhat encouraging to see him play well in the field and not carry those struggles at the plate with him; he's more than solid at 3B defensively, which is a start at least. I do have a real problem with his comments about having to become more results oriented because of how supposedly quickly they "pull the trigger on you" if you're not performing, etc. Because outside of moving down in the batting order, Royce played whenever he was healthy. They didn't yank him after he hung a sombrero, they didn't bench him when he was mired in a rotten streak where he was striking out, chasing everything, and making weak or no contact. He kept playing basically any day he was healthy enough to go in the lineup and never came close to losing his starting job, despite playing like a bench guy. If your attitude is "eff these guys" and "they turned on me" when you stink and they started having you hit 7th, then I'm a little concerned about where his head is at. Much as I love the joy Royce can bring to the game, if he thinks it's someone else's fault for how poorly he's performed at the plate over the last 18 months, then I'm worried about his ability to pull himself out it. We'll see. I'm rooting for him. A return to form would make a real difference in this lineup. Hope his head is on straight and he stays healthy.
  24. jmlease1
    I think this is right. I would love to be wrong, but to me Clemens looks like a useful guy at the end of the roster (LH power, positional flexibility, good clubhouse guy, etc) but as a starter? Likely getting overused and overmatched. Regardless, they have to find a RH bat that can play 1B if this is the plan (admittedly, the Twins plan for 1B could turn on a dime and I take anything they say right now with a hefty grain of salt) because Clemens is dreadful vs LHP and even in 2025, his best year as a pro he was amazingly bad vs LHP (so bad that he might improve just because he was so far below his career numbers vs LHP, but even reaching that is not a guy you want starting vs any LHP) Handing Clemens the job is the first sign they don't intend to compete in 2026. We'll see if they follow through.
  25. jmlease1
    Interesting mix of successful MLB players and grinders who barely made it/never got out of the minors. It's an interesting breadth of experience. And it's good to see some additions from outside the Twins usual orbit. It does look like Shelton had real input on his staff? Now, it won't matter all that much if the player's don't stay healthy and perform, but it seems like a pretty good group. I'd say the biggest question mark is Toby Gardenhire, since he's been the AAA guy and one of our biggest problems recently has been getting players to take that last step from AAA stud to MLB regular, but who knows how much of that has to do with the manager?
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