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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think the thing to remember with Outman is he crushed AAA just fine in 2025, so is him pounding the ball in spring training just a repeat of his AAA work? Dude has always hit AAA pitching. He just stopped hitting MLB pitching and I have to wonder if his spring training is nothing but a mirage. I'm sure there have to be other metrics on which to judge him, but I don't really have them sitting on my ass in MN... Personally, I don't think Outman should have played his way on to the roster. I think the front office is still enamored of him, and would really like to be proven right on that deal.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm not going to get too hung up on KLaw being the outlier: he often prefers it that way. He's also the guy who was way down on Kaelen Culpepper...and then did a big revision after Culpepper did great jumping up multiple levels last season. So, you know. I think it's pretty fair to rank them in that middle third, at the edge of top 10. They've got enough injury concerns about top prospects to catch a ding, their preference on stocking up on late round college pitchers doesn't excite prospect developers and those guys tend to rise up older, which will always keep them out of the rankings. And frankly, they've had enough trouble graduating highly rated prospects to productive MLB players that they deserve a ding on that side too. But there's plenty of talent in the system, and much of it at AA or above, which is where we need it to be. Hopefully they can get them through. I'd love to see our farm system rankings plummet because we graduated Roriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, Rojas, Mendez, etc into productive MLB players that can form a new core...
  3. jmlease1
    Do spring training stats mean anything or not, is one of the questions. Roden has been raking so far this spring...but Outman is hitting quite well too. I'm seriously down on Outman and don't want him being given a roster spot on scholarship...but who actually deserves to get the job is hard for me to answer. Larnach seems like a poor choice to continue on at this point, and I wish there was a trade out there that could bring back a competent RH reliever, and I'd be willing to add a lottery ticket prospect to get that done. That would position us to have someone like Roden or Rodriguez start in LF, free up DH time for Bell et al, and Martin would be a good fit as a 4th OF, especially if you have the R2 boys on the roster as potential backups for CF. I think it's time to break the logjam. deal Larnach, for whatever you can get, Cut Outman (if he wants to go to AAA, fine; I have no problem with him playing the season as a veteran injury replacement in Saint Paul). Let either Roden or Rodriguez seize the job with Martin playing against every LHP in existence and occasionally getting some time against RHP (with an "R" sliding to RF at times to get Wallner over to DH more) I don't hold Roden's poor debut against him; it's a tiny sample of his first test at MLB. I think Rodriguez can hit and field if he stays healthy. I'm enthusiastic about GG as well.
  4. jmlease1
    He's incredibly talented, I just hope his elbow doesn't explode. I have no issues with him continuing to work as a starter: as noted above, he needs innings and he needs to throw his pitches under game conditions, and starting is a perfectly fine way to do it. It's also far easier for a player to step down to a relief role than it ever is for a guy to stretch back out into starting, and with the injuries that have already cropped up it's not like the AAA rotation will be too overstuffed (especially with guys like Lewis or Klein or Raya already moving into bullpen roles.) Should he be 5th on the list? Tough call, because there's simply a ton of variance with him as a player. the ceiling is very high, but the floor is equally low because of the injury risk and time already missed. Performance will need to start matching the peripherals soon; it's all fine and good to talk about spin rates and movement and whiff rates as a prospect develops, but once you're up in the high minors it has to be matched with execution on the field. Looking forward to seeing how well he's able to command and control his offerings this season, but any LHP with his velocity paired with that kind of slider & changeup has pretty awesome potential.
  5. jmlease1
    I hope you're right about Houston, but right now that's the hitting profile we're seeing in A-ball, which is not what we should be projecting him for in MLB. 30 doubles and 8-10 homers looks pretty optimistic, and if he's not able to do damage on the occasional ball, he could end up getting overwhelmed by better pitching as those cheap walks disappear and he gets fewer bleeders through the infield. I hope he develops as a hitter, because the defense is absolutely legit. But it's fair to be concerned that he's Noah Miller pt 2: all glove, no bat. Miller made it to AAA last season, and got bullied at the plate. Now, he still might improve and he'll probably make it to MLB as a utility guy at some point, but he doesn't look like a starter at all, let alone a potential all-star. Culpepper, on the other hand, has a much higher upside. A lot of the prospect evaluators who had him moving off SS have backed off that and the bat impresses,
  6. jmlease1
    There's a ton to like here. I might have had him a little lower; I'm usually a little more skeptical of the very young A-ball pitching prospects until they get up to AA, but boy the upside here is impressive. After so many years of not having a LH starter (or one worth a damn), it's pretty fun to have some high level LHP prospects pushing their way up. Would love to have a LH starter that can throw real gas in the rotation, and Hill might be that guy sooner rather than later if he keeps developing like this. Should be an interesting year for him. Hope he stays healthy.
  7. jmlease1
    3-4 weeks, probably. The cons are you might be looking at calling up someone who isn't ready if there's an early injury. And the reality is, we're talking about 2 from the Abel/Bradley/Matthews group being in the rotation, so if the 3rd one gets bumped to the bullpen we're relying on Morris to be the 6th starter, since Festa (unsurprisingly) isn't likely to be ready by the start of the season. If Pablo were still here it would have been easy to drop one from Matthews/Abel/Bradley into the 'pen, but right now we're looking at the rotation being Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Abel. I'd feel a lot better about the depth if it's Matthews & Morris in Saint Paul first in line than Morris, Prielipp, and Rojas (when the latter 2 still need work, no matter how impressive the upside is). If festa were available it might be different as well. I'll be happy if whomever lands in the 4th & 5th spots does it on performance. Abel is making a case and it's good to see.
  8. jmlease1
    Sure, but why wouldn't you try to have a prospect improve? I don't think anyone is trying to turn GG into Matt Wallner, but if he hit fewer grounders and hit the ball harder when he swung, he'd almost certainly hit more for extra-bases and be a better and more dangerous hitter. And the vast majority of prospects who fall apart with any tweak to their swing or approach are probably not going to make it, because there's very few hitters who last in MLB without making adjustments.
  9. jmlease1
    Happy to see Roden continuing to hit. Would be great if he has figured out some adjustments and can make it a real battle for the 4th OF slot; I simply do not want them giving it to Outman on scholarship. Mick Abel has immense upside. If he's commanding his pitches he can be a front-line starter, and if he beats out someone for a rotation spot, that's great.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm excited about GG. I wish it felt more like the twins were giving him a real shot to win a job in spring training, but with Larnach and Outman effectively blocking him (and Martin reasonably being ahead of him as a guy who showed out a little as a RH OF bat last season) it doesn't feel like he's going to be starting anywhere but AAA. I hope he forces the issue by knocking crap out of the ball. I will be watching to see how his defense progresses; while he has the arm and athleticism to handle either corner spot, the arm isn't exactly plus and his fielding hasn't been impressive. (Clearly he knows he has some work to do there) His bat is definitely his path forward, and hopefully he's able to keep making adjustments to refine his approach and add more hard contact. I think everyone would be fine if he's a high average, high OBP hitter with 30 doubles and 10-15 dingers, especially if he improves his defense. He's not a finished product yet, by any means. It was mildly concerning that he lost some of his patience at the plate when he reached AAA; it was a fairly significant drop off in walks in Saint Paul. But there's no question that he had an excellent season in 2025, and suggests that his uninspiring 2024 was really all about health. A lot of people were really down on the Polanco trade, but GG is poised to make it look pretty good.
  11. jmlease1
    I think if there's an early injury to Royce, plan B is Clemens, which isn't terrible as solutions go. But if Royce flames out, right now there isn't another internal solution that looks close to ready, unless you also have a different solution at SS (which they may or may not have). It's a little more scary because Royce has such an extensive injury history, but the reality is if Royce isn't a real factor on this team then the lineup is likely too much of a mess to be salvageable at this point. Super bummed that Miranda collapsed, and I always find it weird that him getting beaned isn't front and center every time when he comes up, because it's pretty hard to not see it as having utterly and tragically altered the course of his career. Before that he didn't offer "tenuous" depth, he looked like a guy who could be a quality bat. (am pleased to see him doing well in SD in spring training, and hope it works out for him) It was good to see Royce didn't carry his struggles at the plate out on the field and his defense has definitely improved. Hopefully he figures out some things at the plate and stays on the field.
  12. jmlease1
    Talent level is really high. Would be awesome to have a LHP who could generate that kind of velocity and he's got the pitches to compete if he can improve the shape on the fastball without losing that velocity. I think Toronto did him dirty by promoting him to AAA last season and the Twins compounded the mistake by sending him to Saint Paul rather than Wichita, which is concerning for how they plan to handle his development. It really felt like a "no, no, we got a MAASIVE return on Varland, a guy you're gonna see REAL soon, trust us!" flop-sweat move by the front office. But the talent is real. He is on a lot of prospect evaluator's radar and despite the struggles in AAA he should be. I don't really expect to see him in MLB in 2026. Right now he's behind Matthews, Festa, Abel, Morris, and Prielipp in terms of development and readiness, even if he might be as high or higher than they are in talent. Which is fine, so long as they can develop him in AAA and have him ready to compete for a spot in 2027.
  13. jmlease1
    Well, Carew was a Hall of Famer so that's a different comp than just being a star. But Carew did hit for some power, and it's part of why he was such a great hitter: all of Carew's best seasons were ones where he had some pop. In his prime seasons ('72-'78) he slugged less than .440 once. He had a career SLG of .429. Carew consistently ripped triples, which Keaschall hasn't done yet. It'll be easier for Keaschall to become a star if he develops a little more power; where he was at in 2025 is where he needs to be or better for his career to be a star, and if his production dips a little because his BABIP slips, rapping a few more dingers would make up for it.
  14. jmlease1
    Seems nuts to carry 4 LH relievers. It's not like these guys are elite, upper-echelon guys who you'd send out to close a game. Funderburk probably gets sent back to AAA (sorry mah dude), and someone gets cut between Banda and Chafin, absent injury. Maybe...maybe they keep 3...but kind of doubt it? I hope I'm wrong on Outman. And he's at least looked better at the plate and in the field than he did last season...but it's just spring training. Makes me wonder if Zoll was the one behind the trade in the first place? (while I hate the idea of anyone in the Twins front office being too enamored of Outman, it would be amusing after people around here used him as part of their endless litany for why Falvey needed to be shot into the sun...) Not sure who has the edge for the last spot in the rotation. I do think Bradley has a leg up for the 4th spot, so for me it's Abel v Matthews and I don't know which one really ahs the edge there.
  15. jmlease1
    I don't know that Houston's progress will define things much one way or the other for this draft; with such a high pick I'm guessing they'll take whomever they determine is the best player. (how they'll determine that would be interesting to know: how much is on projection/ceiling vs current skills, vs athleticism, vs makeup, etc) As difficult as it's been for the Twins to find quality consistent SS play and develop it internally, I don't they're going to worry much about whether Houston (or even Culpepper) is going to lock down SS in the near future. I certainly hope Houston takes a big step forward and is hitting with conviction at AA by midseason...
  16. jmlease1
    I don't think he'd be excoriated by most folks. The issue with Houston is whether or not that kind of slash line is achievable. If he's getting on base in the .350 range, not one is going to care if he's basically slapping singles and taking some walks. But if he's not able to show the ability to tun on a meatball and do some damage, those walks start getting a lot harder to find. That's why slugging still matters, because if a pitcher doesn't have to worry about you hitting anything for extra bases in a serious way, they won't nibble on a 3 ball count, but will just look to overpower you with fastballs in the zone until you prove you can do something with it. The concern with Houston is whether or not he'll be able to clear the Mendoza Line in MLB. If he can get to an OPS of around .650 he can start because his defense looks like it could be elite. If he's sitting more like .575, then he's maybe backup material no matter how good the glove is. Andrelton Simmons could still play SS very well defensively when he was a Twin, but his offense turned him into a black hole and he was out of the league at 32. I'd love for Houston to become the next Simmons, but Andrelton had a better bat than what Houston has shown so far. We'll see. I love the defense. I'm very worried about the bat. The college power was a mirage, because Wake Forest plays in a band box. The team SLG for Wake in 2025 was .540
  17. jmlease1
    Hopefully a healthy spring training will allow him to get in the reps he needs at 2B and improve his fielding there. If he shows he can field the position, he could hold it down for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully his arm will have improved being further away from the injuries, and a lot of his mistakes in the field really looked like a lack of reps, not something that isn't fixable. He's got the tools to do well there, even if he might not be a plus defender. I'm not interested in moving him to the OF, though I'm sure he'd handle LF well and could fill in CF in a pinch with his speed...but there's plenty of OF prospects moving up in the system and moving him to the OF to open something up for Brooks Lee seems wasteful. If Culpepper takes the SS job away from Lee, then Lee becomes the utility guy who plays SS, 2B, and 3B. I'm less enthusiastic about DeBarge than some; the steals are fun, but it's A-ball. Pitchers barely even try to hold runners it seems and the catching is wildly inconsistent, and frankly I'm a little concerned about his defense. yes, he won a minor league Gold Glove, but neutral prospect evaluators like KLaw are more skeptical of his defense and warned to take the minor league awards with a grain of salt. De Andrade certainly seems to be plummeting. Too bad, I had high hopes for him after 2023, but 2024 was a lost season, and he struggled at the plate in 2025 while getting moved off SS for the most part. Maybe he settles in at 2B or 3B?
  18. jmlease1
    He's going into his THIRD professional season. Not 4th. Kirilloff had 799 ABs and 198 hits in MLB. Not "exactly zero". (I'm still bummed that we rarely got to see healthy Kirilloff, and certainly don't hold injuries against a guy who was forced into retirement at 26 over them against him as some kind of moral failing) wtf? I get that you don't think Soto is anything more than a lottery ticket, and you might even be right. A lot of high school pitchers never work out. But can we use actual facts?
  19. jmlease1
    Except, of course, you're kinda wrong about everything here? Last season he was injured and barely pitched, but 1) he did have a rookie season, 2) his results weren't "piss poor" for a pitcher 4 years younger than his competition coming straight out of HS and already up at High A, and 3) he threw 74 innings in 2024 to go with the 13 in 2025, so if you can count that on your fingers and 1 foot you're definitely some kind of mutant. I might be worried if he was sitting at #5 on the prospect list, but it's hardly unusual for a team to have a guy sitting in the 8-12 range who has big upside but lost a developmental year to injury. Dooming the twins to flounder for years because Charlee Soto was injured last year but everyone but you still thinks he's got a ton of potential is...a take.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm excited about Soto. The TINSTAAPP Rule still applies, but the upside and talent are tantalizing. It sounds like he's recovered well from the surgery, so hopefully he'll be able to go up to Cedar Rapids (it wouldn't shock me if they keep him in extended Spring Training for a couple of weeks, just to watch his elbow a little and wait for it to warm up a little) and we'll see how he does in refining his pitches and improving his command. It'll be interesting to see if they work on improving the shape of his fastball more or if they focus more on development of the sinker? I am excited to see him throw that change, though. I looooove a starter with a good changeup. Twins have had some awesome ones in their history and it would be very fun if we can add Soto to the list.
  21. jmlease1
    It's so hard to know just from stats in spring training. But better to see good than bad? I'd love for this to be a sign that Roden and GG are ready for real roles on the team and that they're getting the chance to win jobs. The floor for someone like Larnach is decent, but it doesn't seem like there's a lot of ceiling left. (notably, Outman, whom I have ripped fairly consistently as not being a very good fit for this team who is blocking opportunity for others, has hit pretty well so far. Unclear how his D looks?) Clemens seems fine to me as a backup, as he can play several positions as an average or above defender, and his power production (if it continues) could be valuable. As a starter, it's harder to see him being even average. I'd like him to be a floor setter, but he does have more utility than Larnach.
  22. jmlease1
    It's not particularly abusive to the players, really: they're getting paid a MLB salary instead of a minor league one. And in the Twins case, the player wouldn't have to move or disrupt anything if they get bounced up and down from AAA to MLB (a small competitive advantage for the Twins having their AAA affiliate in Saint Paul and the MLB club in Minneapolis). It makes it attractive for the Twins to sign players to a kind of "Quad A" deal, because it doesn't result in an rotten season of travel and multiple moves: you can just live in the same place. Passing Jackson to AAA would be ideal. Keep him on the 26-man as a 3rd catcher is borderline insane.
  23. jmlease1
    Short answer: No. Longer answer: No, unless they're intending for people to write a bunch of additional think pieces on how the Twins roster construction makes no damn sense? Jeffers and Caratini are good hitters a catcher. They're not good hitters at 1B or DH, more like "occasionally acceptable". Neither are particularly good defenders at 1B either, and neither should ever be sent to the OF. Jackson is a fine defensive catcher, but hasn't proven he can hit. Probably a good backup, might have potential for more, but probably a backup. Can't be seen as effective or productive at any other position. Unless the Twins are suddenly going to carry 12 pitchers (something they've shown no indication they're interested in and seems foolish with their bullpen uncertainty) you cannot carry 3 catchers unless one of them plays another real defensive position and even then it's doubtful. How is it a good idea to have a bench of 1 infielder, 1 outfielder, and 2 backup catchers?!? If Bell is the starting DH, then you'd have to make Caratini or Clemens the starting 1B and send Larnach to the OF. If Larnach is the starting DH, then Bell has to start at 1B and under this construction there's no spot for Clemens...and while forcing Clemens off the roster ain't crazy, it makes no sense to keep Jackson over him. What a dumb idea.
  24. jmlease1
    Kirilloff had exactly one healthy pro season in his whole career, unfortunately, and it was all the way back in 2018, when he came off Tommy John and murdered A-ball. His best season in MLB was certainly 2023, when he was also his healthiest...and still only played 108 games between the minors and the majors. Knowing where his ceiling was when he never played a healthy season in MLB is quite a feat? The idea that he wouldn't take walks is a bit skewed; he certainly did in 2023 (that .348 OBP would have ranked 4th on the 2025 Twins from qualifying players). And estimates on his power is a little hard for a player who battled wrist, elbow, and back injuries his entire career?
  25. jmlease1
    Sure, but I think I'd rather give it to the guy who has proven something in pro ball and had success in AA over the guy who has a bunch of tools & question marks and no real pro track record.
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