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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    We have self-imposed budget limitations that make it a lot harder to just pay a guy $5-7M to be a backup. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc don't have to worry about that and can fill holes and buy their way out of difficulty; teams like the Twins have to look at trading to fill in holes to meet their budgets. It's not that the player wouldn't sign here, it's that we'd never make them the offer, or if we do, it's 1 maybe 2 guys that can get that.
  2. jmlease1
    Part of the reason the trade gets bashed a lot is the twins also held on to Cave too long, and so we all endured seeing them trot him out in CF in 2021 past the point where he really could credibly fill in there and saw multiple seasons where the bat was unimpressive at best and rotten at worst. It would have been easier for people to look at it as a "we got what we needed and the risk on a 19 year old A-ball pitcher paid out for someone else" without those extra seasons. Gil had one meteoric season with the Yankees and a lot of injuries and ineffectiveness. Cave was a very nice backup for a couple of seasons who fell off quickly after that. Neither the worst trade nor the best. Some people might argue that you should never trade for need like this, but I'm not one of them. Unlike the Yankees, it's much harder for us to buy a backup off the shelf and overpay them for 1-2 seasons.
  3. jmlease1
    Accurrate assessment of where Buck is now. It doesn't mean he's not still an excellent player or needs to be moved out of CF now or even soon. It just is what it is, and as long as he can still hit like Byron Buxton, he'll be a fine overall player. Putting better defenders next to him wouldn't hurt either; with Rodriguez or Jenkins in RF the whole OF defense (heck Martin more regularly in LF too) looks better. Even if the overall defense grades out closer to average, he's still capable of making great catches, is incredibly consistent, has a strong arm...and hits more like a RF than CF.
  4. jmlease1
    Once they made the decision to keep Larnach, I'm betting they didn't keep someone like Emma because they wanted him playing, and weren't keeping Larnach or Wallner to have them sit in a small usage role. Once that Opening Day decision was made, the service time game started, so now we're looking at making sure they get the "extra" year for the rookie before bringing them up. Which makes sense from a financial standpoint (if you can't qualify for the RoY bonus by having someone up at the jump, might as well make sure you maintain team control for as long as possible) but not from a baseball standpoint. Of course, to me, keeping Outman never made sense, and there's a real duplication issue with Larnach and Wallner. Larnach, having been protected from the LHP that he simply can't hit, has done quite well this season (even showing a return to form defensively; while I would never expect him to be a plus defender, he showed in 2022 that he could play perfectly credible defense in a corner spot). Wallner has absolutely struggled (playing him every day even against LHP has been a disaster and now he's completely lost at the plate; early on he was hitting RHP at least and now that's collapsed as well, which explains why Martin got a start in RF) and it's increasingly hard to justify him sitting on the roster when there's a player like Rodriguez in the wings and Wallner actually having an option left. I would demote Wallner, cut Outman, bring up Rodriguez, and have Kreidler fill the "pinch runner-defensive replacement" slot. Hopefully we see more loud days like this in Saint Paul and the Twins feel compelled to make a move.
  5. jmlease1
    Let's not pretend Keaschall has been any better, he's just got more recency bias to help him out. Clemens has also been awful. Wallner was the sacrificial lamb against all the LH starting pitching we faced early on, and it definitely did not help him get off to a decent start. He should be playing less for sure at least until he works some things out, and they need to protect him against LHP for a while. Congrats, Trevor Larnach: your turn to get beat up by poor roster construction. Martin can play LH every day and Larnach can get more time in RF for now. Sometime in May is when we're likely to see a real roster decision. Probably only be guys with options, though, because the Twins are fearful of letting assets potentially go for "nothing" regardless of whether they have any actual value. Sunk cost fallacy run amok.
  6. jmlease1
    Tied his career high. 2025 last game of his season: 84 pitches. I'm sure they're going to be careful with him while he's up with the MLB squad, but he's gone 82 and 84 pitches in his first two starts. I'd guess it's not a hard and fast number, but they're probably trying to keep him in the 80-90 pitch range with an expectation that he's not going more than 5-6 innings, and probably looking to have Morris ready in case he only goes 4 because of some high-stress innings. To be clear: I have no problem with that. While they will need to build him up and occasionally push him eventually, being cautious with him early is the smart long-term play. Considering how most of us don't see this team going anywhere this season, being smart about how they build up and develop Prielipp is critical. He's never thrown 100 innings for a season in his college or pro career; before 2025 he'd never thrown 30. Here's hoping his star-crossed injury luck is behind him
  7. jmlease1
    I think that's fair. Interesting that you mentioned Bradley's fastball; while I like that pitch a lot (especially with the extra velocity he's put on it this season), when he's able to locate it it feels like his split is his most devastating pitch. (the problem is of course that he still has plenty of games where he's clearly struggling to locate it, spikes it, etc) But Prielipp's slider is really nasty. It definitely gives him something to base on when he's missing with other offerings (it really is the pitch he's most comfortable with) that should be hard to tee off on. I'll be very interested to see how his change evolves at the MLB level and how well he does at consistently spotting his fastball where he wants it. Improving his command on both those pitches will make his slider even more deadly.
  8. jmlease1
    Partly because they're splitting recent draft pick Billy Amick's time at 1B too. There's probably room for a few more starts there for Mendez, but Wichita has a bit more of an infield logjam right now than an OF one and making sure he plays is more important than waiting for 1B time. Hopefully he continues to work on it outside of game activity as well and actively learn the position even if he's not getting tons of game action, because the bat might be good enough to keep moving him up. Not a bad pickup for a rental. Tait is a guy I like; the bat is loud when he makes contact and if he can stick at catcher it would be a big deal for the Twins, who might lose Jeffers to the dreaded self-imposed budget cap and only have Caratini under contract for one more season. Having an offensive weapon at catcher is a competitive advantage, so I hope Tait is able to keep developing there. But it usually takes longer for these guys to be ready, and I wouldn't be shocked if Tait spends most or all of 2026 in Cedar Rapids. I was a little surprised to see Olivar still catching so much; I thought they were transitioning him out of that role, but he's still mostly splitting time with Cossetti. Problem is, he still looks more like a hitter who tries to catch than a catcher who can hit. While you have to take some minor league defensive metrics with a grain of salt, the 13% caught stealing is pretty rough and teams run on him with abandon. (Cossetti, on the other hand is sitting at 40% CS and teams simply test him far less because of it. But Cossetti can't hit.)
  9. jmlease1
    A nice win in some very unpleasant weather. Prielipp did well, just started to wobble in that last inning when he couldn't find the plate. Maybe weather-related, maybe just a learning experience for an inexperienced pitcher, but it made it through with minimal damage. It'll be interesting to see if this becomes a pattern with Morris, where he handles the first 2 innings well and then wobbles in the 3rd...and whether the Twins will start restricting his innings to less of a long man and more of a 1-2 inning role, potentially increasing the frequency of his outings while reducing the length. Regardless, he got the job done well enough. Good to see the team get some big knocks with runners on base; the early success was unsustainable, the recent drought was unlucky, so hopefully it even out a bit and we see a little more consistent offense. Some guys that were really scrabbling got some key hits, which they and the team really needed. No idea if this offense from Gray is anywhere near sustainable, but I'll take it. Keaschall and Clemens had been dreadful at the dish, so good for them to get going. Thought the Keaschall double early was some nice hitting (and was worried that Bell was going to be called out by literally a hair) and maybe that starts a streak for him. The Twins do well when they grind out ABs and take walks. It may not always be pretty but when they don't chase and get on base the runs will come. I still feel good about the rotation, especially with Prielipp showing out a bit that the reinforcements aren't all gone and the cupboard ain't bare. Boy, team needed this win.
  10. jmlease1
    Congrats to Ben Ross on promotion. Nice reward for his impressive start. Hope he can keep the bat going in Saint Paul, because the glove is excellent. Be interesting to see how they divide up the infield innings with him in the mix and whether someone will get moved? Very impressive start to the season for Mercedes. Might be looking at a promotion of his own soon. Like seeing Houston get the double in there; his ability to crack a few xbhs in there will be important to his progress at the plate. He's on a very nice track so far, and if he stays near this then he's in AA midseason at the latest. Amick is doing ok after that nightmare in the AFL, but he may be selling out a little too much for the homers. Like to see him making more contact, show a little more patience.
  11. jmlease1
    Twins did accept who Martin was? They tried some things with him in the minors and when it wasn't really working he went back to his old swing and approach. Seems fine? Marek Houston will be a massive success with his glove if he can put up a .360-.380 OBP in MLB. Notably, there's only 2 Twins on the 26-man right now who are doing just that, so I think we have to recognize that bar is fairly high. The kind of slash line you're setting as the goal for Houston is basically where Martin was last season, so if he does it at a premium defensive position, it'll be great. He's looking good in Cedar Rapids so far, but had a real hiccup when he was promoted last season, and it was fair to wonder what his bat would do. Part of the concern with Martin was whether that kind of profile would be sustainable when you're playing LF, where it's harder to add the same defensive value, and Martin has occasionally looked...wobbly out there. And again: if the comp is Rod freakin' Carew, can we all just remember that you're comping someone against a no-doubt, first ballot Hall of Famer? (and notably, in Rod's best seasons, he was hitting 30 doubles and 10+ triples too: it wasn't all just slapping a single through the hole) Guys that hit .280 these days aren't easy to find. It'd be awesome if Houston ends up with Martin's profile as a hitter, but Martin is a bit of a rarity these days (and for good reason: it's hard to do it)
  12. jmlease1
    Martin has done great. Would like to see him be a more impactful runner (more steals, less running into outs) but you have to love how he's just getting himself on base. I felt like he had a bit of a breakout last season and was heading in the right direction, and so far he's confirmed it. He's a very tough out right now, and I'm here for it. With Keaschall struggling so much, I have to wonder if we might see him drop in at 2B to get his bat in the lineup?
  13. jmlease1
    He has been coming in hot, maybe they've found something there. I understand why they're looking at him for a multi-inning role right now (calling the bullpen "thin" is generous, and the starting pitching depth is being tested with the loss of Abel) but I will be interested to see if they start transitioning him to more of a 1-2 inning practice and throwing more often? We need guys with more upside and velocity in there, and Morris might be suited to the gig.
  14. jmlease1
    Tait seems to be warming up. He's still so young, so it's great to see him finding some success at the plate. Salas is finally finding some success as a hitter...is he also finding a position at 1B? Not sure what is future is, but he's making me curious with this solid start. Mercedes off to a very nice start as well. It's a pretty small sample though so let's give him another 10-15 games before we get too hyped, but good to see success for him as well.
  15. jmlease1
    Bad time for Ryan to turn in a stinker. I was worried about this series; the Mets have too much talent to have been this bad, and the epic losing streak was going to come to an end soon... Twins were really good early in the season hitting with runners in scoring position. Feels like we're regressing back to the mean, And even with Keaschall moving down in the lineup...when you're struggling, things find you. Instead of getting that big hit in the first to crack the game open, it was a harmless fly ball. Hard not to be concerned about that .508 OPS Austin Martin has been a real bright spot. Dude just gets himself on base. Eventually, that's going to slide back (you simply can't expect an OBP of .515; that's crazy Barry Bonds stuff) at least some, but he's doing a great job battling at the plate, working walks, and getting hits.
  16. jmlease1
    Rotten news about Ellwanger. He'd had a really nice start to his pro career and you could see why they drafted him. Hope it's actually just a sprain, but hard not to fear it's much worse and that he'll be looking at surgery. Twins just don't seem to have a lot of good injury luck with prospects. I know it's tempting to push Quick up, but I think it makes more sense to start stretching him out in Ft. Myers rather than do it in Cedar Rapids. He's looking dominant, but he's also still only throw 8 innings over 3 starts. Considering he only threw 87 total college innings (over 3 seasons), we have to be a little cautious here. But he's got the frame and talent to be terrific. Build him up, maybe promote him at midseason, but I think next season might be the one where he rises super fast and jumps multiple levels in a year. Like what we're seeing from some of the Wichita bats. Not really sure what the Twins think of Rosario, but he's come out of his cold start faster than last season and looks pretty locked in. Getting Mendez a good amount of time at 1B makes sense, but there is a weird little logjam there. As long as he's in the lineup I'm happy. Houston is having the kind of season I was hoping he'd have but wasn't sure he would. (so far) It's a long season to go, but he's making good contact, taking some walks, and occasionally punishing a ball. I don't think he needs to become a 20 homer guy, just keep ripping the occasional double or dinger here and there so pitchers can't get away with lobbing one in when behind in the count. Hope he keeps this up!
  17. jmlease1
    Solid enough start for Prielipp, which is nice to see. Tough to not be able to get through 5, though. Can't blame Twins management for pulling him; MLB debut probably isn't the right time to have someone throw 100 pitches for the first time in their pro career? Finishing off MLB hitters is harder than the minors by a lot and it's something Prielipp needs to work on. Too many 8 pitch AB's. But he's got the stuff to get there, and Twins should feel ok about him filling in for Abel. I liked seeing him finish 13-17 on first pitch strikes. Offense needs to do better; not enough baserunners last night, and not enough hitting when we had runners on. Keaschall is definitely scrabbling. Buxton, Martin, and Bell (maybe Larnach; he's been great but hasn't gotten to play a lot) are the only guys you can really count on right now and that's not enough.
  18. jmlease1
    Well, Kepler was also bad at hitting LHP in 2020 & 2021, and only ok (by the standards of a lefty, really) in 2022 or 2025. He was good against LHP in 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024...but was also still facing relatively small numbers.
  19. jmlease1
    I didn't think he looked too bad against the Mets last night; the homer was unfortunate and the worst pitch he threw. But it did look like he was struggling to find the splitter, and was spiking it enough that it was easy to lay off. He's been disappointing so far, but he's also earned more rope.
  20. jmlease1
    Well, teams like the '91 Twins didn't have a lot of LH bats and if you think the Twins back then didn't platoon guys then I suggest you examine Mike Pagliarulo's splits from that season. Hrbek was the only LH bat to start basically every day, and he hit LHP pretty well over his career. late 2000's Twins had a lot more LH bats, but guys like Mauer & Morneau, while significantly worse against LHP could still handle it, and even someone like Span wasn't getting torched like our LH bats are right now. '87 Twins didn't have many LH bats, much like '91. It's a lot easier to just write in the same names every day when you're starting off with a bunch of righties. Bomba Squad? Well, that's the season Rosario was actually good against LH pitchers and so was Kepler. Outliers the both of them. How well did it work the rest of the time running Kepler out against LHP (hint: not so good). I think the issue is less about increased playing time for Austin Martin and more about having more and better RH bats on the roster period. It's about having more good hitters on the roster, and fewer guys with serious limitations. Caratini has pretty neutral splits, but he's only a "good for a catcher" hitter. Bell has fairly neutral splits and rightly should play every day...but is a poor defender at 1B. Clemens, Larnach, and Wallner all really struggle against LHP and it's not likely to change. If you want to give more ABs to Martin over Wallner, who is definitely struggling at the plate period, you certainly can, I guess?
  21. jmlease1
    The talent has never been in question, only the health. He seems to be staying healthy and feeling good and now is showing he can string together starter's innings. If he flunks out as a starter there's still plenty of time to shift him into the bullpen, but if he translates to MLB like we hope...it'll be a big bonus to the rotation. We've missed not having a LHP in the rotation recently, and it would be great to have one that's a power arm. Should be fun to see him make his first MLB start. Good luck to him.
  22. jmlease1
    Like seeing some homers from the boys in Saint Paul. Definitely hoping that Walker Jenkins is heating up. I'm not really worried about him, but it would be great to see the result match the peripherals. Maybe a couple of hits gets DeBarge going. He's been scrabbling lately with not much contact. Same for Quentin Young, who hasn't been hitting much to start his pro career.
  23. jmlease1
    McLean was really destroying the Twins early. Nice to see them claw out of it and give themselves a chance. It was looking pretty bad when he rolled over the first time through the lineup with 7 K's. A good job clawing their way back in it. Would have liked a couple more insurance runs in the 9th; wasn't great to see Lewis, Lee, and Buck all K after chasing their closer...by chasing pitches out of the zone, when the rally was built by being patient. But contact was hard to come by for the Twins last night. Good to see the bullpen effective after struggling against the Reds. Weather looked uncomfortable out there.
  24. jmlease1
    I know the phrase "pitching pipeline" is much mocked around here, but literally no one who was serious about the concept ever suggested it only involved the draft and developing the players you selected in the draft. Rojas is as much of the "pitching pipeline" for the Twins as anyone. It was always about filling up the organization with as much pitching talent as possible at every level, including AA and AAA. Who cares that we grabbed him (essentially from AA) from Toronto and put him into our development program? Twins rotation is, quite frankly, showing out this design quite clearly: Pablo was acquired as a major leaguer, Ryan from AAA, Ober was drafted and development by the Twins, SWR was acquired while at AA, Bradley was bouncing from AAA to MLB and hadn't established himself, Abel had just barely debuted in MLB, Matthews was drafted by the Twins, Festa was drafted by the Twins, Prielipp was drafted by the Twins, Morris was drafted by the Twins. It was never supposed to be just draft & develop. And until a pitcher has established themselves in MLB, they're still a prospect. Especially since making the leap from AAA (or anywhere) to MLB is absolutely the hardest developmental step to make.
  25. jmlease1
    +1000 for the excellent Dire Straits reference.
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