jmlease1

People around here are obsessed with Luis Arraez. He's a decent player, but he's very one-dimensional. Sure, that one dimension (hitting for average) is one that the Twins haven't been good at lately but if we're spending anywhere near what the current projections are for his next contract, don't you want someone who brings more to the table? Apparently Arraez gets a pass on his defense (he's not good at it). And his speed (no advantage on the bases, hits into a lot of DPs). And lack of power. (hasn't slugged over .400 since 2023) And lack of walks (his BB% in 2025 would have been 20th on last year's Twins, beating out only Ty France [a reason to stay away from a reunion with France] and the immortals Carson McCusker, DaShawn Kiersey, Alan Roden, and Jose Miranda none of whom were even out of small sample size.) Why exactly is Arraez at 1B/DH such a good idea again? Because he doesn't strike out?

Andujar is worse against RHP than LHP, but he's not bad. You probably want to give him days off against the best RHP but you don't need to hide him the way you do with most LH hitters against LHP. His OPS against RHP is still above league-average hitting. He's the most interesting option to me, although he certainly comes with risk considering his inconsistent track record. If he hits like he did last season, he'd be a real asset, and could keep Clemens from getting overexposed. They'd still need improvement from Wallner/Lewis, health from Keaschall/Buxton, and someone from the Roden/Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Fedko/Jenkins contingent to step up to field a serious lineup that could score enough runs, but it could fill a significant hole in a reasonable way.

Well, that's not entirely true: He'd seen some higher leverage use when the Twins first tried him in the bullpen, and they gave him a lot of opportunities in 2025 as well after starting him out a little more slowly. And it could definitely work out that way with any of the myriad array of starters they could shift into relief roles (though expecting all of them to immediately be Varland is unrealistic), but it still means you're starting the season with no real experience in high-leverage roles outside of Sands. Even adding a former closer looking for a last good season in the sun probably makes an impact as someone who can handle the 9th without everyone needing a stress ball through June... I do think moving Raya in makes sense and I'd like to see him competing with Ohl & Adams for a job. And I certainly wouldn't object to Prielipp taking it on, because I do agree that he could be a top-tier option in the bullpen, and it might be the best way to use him and keep him on the field. (But I do have dreams about seeing what that guy could do as a LHP option in the rotation...)

There are some internal options that should make the bullpen more viable for next season, but they're absolutely going to need to supplement with some actual names and contracts in free agency if they have any intention of fielding a competent bullpen from the jump in 2026. (they still might be able to get to a competent bullpen with almost exclusively internal options and waiver-wire types, but it's unlikely to shake out that way immediately; they'll need to sift out too many guys to expect even solidity at the start of the season.) I would say they need to spend $10-15M on veteran bullpen arms in order to get at least 1, preferably 2 pitchers that have some experience in handling higher leverage roles, and they should be looking to add in another LHP so that they're not starting out with only Funderburk as an option. (frankly, a reunion with Coulombe probably won't cost that much and he'd immediately add confidence in facing lefties in close and late situations) I'm fine with bringing back Topa (he's not expensive and can be effective in middle relief) and Sands is solid enough. Adams and Ohl interest me as options who can pitch more than 1 inning at a time, but also may continue to improve when you take the starter label off them and even reduce the idea of them being "bulk" pitchers. FA Reliever A, FA Reliever B, Sands, Topa, LH Reliever C, Funderburk, Adams, and Ohl would be trending towards acceptable. I'm reluctant to assign Festa to anything until we really know he's available after Thorassic Outlet Syndrome. Not sure I'm ready to move Matthews into the bullpen yet, but he would certainly improve the top end over someone like Ohl or Adams. Think the team is still looking at Prielipp as a guy who can start, but if he goes into the bullpen he'll likely immediately be the best pitcher there. But they really need to spend a little money this season on some FA. I normally agree with the idea of building your bullpen on the cheap, using internal options and converting failed starters to get there, but they wiped out so many guys from last year's 'pen they simply can't expect to fill it back up internally in one season.

B- seems fair. I mean, some people are going to give any hire made by Falvey or the Pohalds an automatic deduction and presume that anyone they bring in can't be higher than a C and will grade them lower with a D or F without any real reference to what Derek Shelton might bring to the table or his actual deficits as a manager might be, so there's certainly that. I think it's very difficult to grade most managerial hires, since the bulk of the job is behind the scenes, and most of them are media savvy enough at this point to not say anything substantive in their press conferences? Shelton didn't get it done in his first managerial stint. Was it because he's a bad manager, or because the Pirates stink, their minor league system didn't develop much talent, the front office never signed anyone impactful, and their trades haven't yielded nearly enough wins? Someone like Torii Hunter might have been a sexier pick, but would he have actually been a better one? Frankly, I'm skeptical. Great players are usually not great managers. It's not like the organization Torii's been working in has accomplished anything while he's been advising/coaching/assistanting; in fact they've been seen as one of the more dysfunctional. Would we have been better off with someone with no prior ties to the organization? That's certainly a knife that cuts both ways. Who knows? B- seems fine. Seems like a good enough guy, so let's hope he can do some things.

I think this is right. I suspect some people were hoping to see him immediately go rogue with his contract safely signed, or do some performative blustery BS to distance him further stylistically from Rocco and/or stick a knife into Falvey. But that was never realistic for well...anyone? Manager press conferences like this are pretty meaningless. I'll be more interested in seeing how much changeover there is on the rest of the on-field staff, and then seeing what happens with the roster. Next marker for Shelton will really come in Spring Training, when there's an opportunity to see what he has the team doing differently. I can tell Nick is out on Shelton already, though. But that seems to be more of a side-effect of him being out on Falvey and ownership than anything really to do with Derek Shelton. Which is fair: can't really blame anyone for having a "prove me wrong" attitude about the Twins right now. (while I don't have the same utter contempt for Falvey that some around here do, I would have moved on from him in the offseason and started this rebuild with a) someone else, and 2) a clean slate. Of course, I was also begging for new ownership. We don't get what we want, sadly...)

And yet people keep pushing the narrative. There's plenty of reasons to have moved on from Rocco (and to move one from Falvey) that people shouldn't need to invent them, but some of this about trying to invalidate any successes they've had on the field. (possibly to get installed a style and principles some people find more pleasing or are convinced will be "better".) Notably, Gray hasn't been better since going to StL, nor has he pitched deeper into games. And Gray's name is now coming up in trade rumors, though it might be difficult with him being owed $35M next season with a buyout for $5M more for 2027 if they don't pick up his $30M option. Anyone looking to pay Sonny Gray $40M next season or $65M for the next 2? Seems like the Twins made the right call in getting the comp pick and moving on... Back to LaTroy: he seems like he could be a good fit for the Twins staff. Sounds like he's interested in doing it and realizes the additional time commitment that will come with coaching. Twins have frequently utilized pitchers who have needed to re-invent themselves in the bullpen, so Hawk's experience there might be a real bonus.

Boadas seems to have some stuff. We'll see if he learns to control it enough to be an actual prospect in any role. Can't be this wild and prosper. Glad to see Amick finally get off the schnide. He did well in cedar rapids when he was healthy, so I'm sure this has been frustrating for him. Hopefully this gets him on track for the AFL and he can finish on an upswing. It'll be interesting to see where he starts the season; I think if he'd crushed it in the AFL they might have bumped him to AA, but it wouldn't shock me to see him start the year back in Cedar Rapids. We'll see. Winokur needs to start translating all that athletic ability into production; maybe getting him off SS (where he's simply not going to stick) would help? Finding him a realistic defensive home seems like a good idea, whether that's 3B, OF, or 1B. Glad to hear that Mendez isn't hurt and hopefully he can get his personal matters resolved and that it's nothing too serious. he had a fine season coming over from the Phillies system and his hit tool looks pretty interesting. With all of the OF talent we have in the system, I'm not going to complain at all if he shifts down to 1B either.

I'm a little surprised, but France did field the position well when he was here. His range was a little limited (which is why I'm surprised; he wasn't exactly impressive tracking balls into foul territory and turning them into outs) but he did an excellent job scooping low throws (which was his calling card coming into the season) and did a good job handling anything hit at him. Too bad he seems to be a below average hitter with no pop left in his bat now.

I see fans from the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, and maybe Cards & Cubs to be offering several lottery ticket type prospects from the bottom of their top prospect lists in exchange for Ryan and/or Lopez and expect Twins fans to be grateful that they have deigned to toss us a few scraps for our best players. The media will mostly scheme ways to get our best players out of here on to big money contenders and care very little about what the Twins get in return. This will not be an enjoyable part of the offseason.

I'm calling BS on this one: DeBarge was certainly talked about plenty around here, especially with the gaudy stolen base numbers. But go ahead, keep pushing your narrative that Falvey doesn't care about defense in the face of picking DeBarge in 2024 and Marek Houston in 2025. Is DeBarge going to make any national prospect lists? Doubtful, because stolen bases and superior defense in A-ball isn't enough. The bat does count, and DeBarge's needs to improve or his speed and skills on the bases won't matter. He had a very fast start in Cedar Rapids and then lost all pop in his bat with long stretches where he simply couldn't make nearly enough contact either. I'm thrilled his defense has been better than advertised and he's got a couple of tools in the bag, but right now he's likely to start back in Cedar Rapids rather than move up to AA until he shows he can get overwhelmed by the pitching down there, even with his glove glittering.

Players also want to play. There's opportunity to do that in MN (boy howdy is there opportunity). Sure, you get a more likely chance to contend by going to the biggest spenders (Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, etc) but they also don't have opportunities for 6-7 positions. Are the Brewers or Mariners more likely to be able to sign someone this off-season? Sure are...if they'll pay. If MKE brings everyone back and looks to buy to improve the squad, they'll have one of the best chances to win for anyone in baseball. But how many players will take any kind of discount to go play there? They'll need to pay fair market value. The biggest reason teams at the bottom payroll don't sign significant free agents is a) they're in tank mode and not trying, and 2) they simply don't spend. Tampa is frequently good, but they basically never sign anyone. Money isn't the only thing, but the idea that the Twins couldn't possibly sign anyone without massive overpays is simply wrong. Will ownership authorize a payroll that makes it possible to get quality free agents? Will the front office make the right choices? Different issue. But they can sign good players if they pay for them.

Pay them and they will come. Pretty much no one is taking a discount to come here, but if the Twins offer market rate they won't have trouble signing players. The issue is, they won't offer market rate, at least not for significant free agents. The front office won't have the budget to sign any stars, so they won't sign any stars. Despite the issues on the roster and things looking dim for 2026 (unless some prospects show out early), player will still come here to play. If the money is right. The organizational leadership may be terrible at business, dreadful at PR, and staggeringly tone-deaf with the fans, but they've got a good reputation around the league for taking care of players and their families. Target Field is a great park to play in. Twins Cities in the summer isn't a barrier. It will simply come down to money.

I would like to see evidence that Festa is recovered from his thorassic outlet syndrome issues before I count on him for anything this season. I get that they have this as the "good" kind with the least impact, least invasive treatment, and least recovery time, but it's still effin' thorassic outlet syndrome.

Reasonable picks. one of these guys pushes Funderburk down to the 2nd LHP in the bullpen and lower leverage roles unless/until he proves himself capable of handling more. It would be a good start and shouldn't cost too much. I'd probably rank them as listed: Coulombe, Rogers, Thielbar in terms of preference (I guess I'm more nervous that age will smack Thielbar harder than I am about Coulombe's injury history, but I could certainly be convinced to flip 'em) Still will need 2 RH relievers capable of handling some high leverage work, but it should be possible to get the bullpen back from "staggeringly dreadful and predictably useless" to "functional and possibly reliable" without breaking the bank. My general preference is to build your bullpens internally, but they stripped things down so far that's simply not realistic, even with some potential options available in the organization.

never let the truth get in the way of an opportunity to crap all over Falvey. :P

I'd say the Pirates had slightly more success after Shelton was fired, it's not like Don Kelly turned them around and taught them how to hit all of a sudden. They still had plenty of 8-game losing streaks and still weren't even a .500 team under Kelly. Did Shelton "deserve" to keep his job? Deserve's got nothin' to do with it. (tm Clint Eastwood) Did Kelly's tenure so far significant change anything for the Pirates? Doesn't really look like it. If they add some hitting and don't trade Skenes, they'll be better in 2026. If they deal Skenes and/or don't improve the offense, they'll be 5th in the NL Central again. (likely regardless, unless you think StL is on a bigger downswing) I've never been all that impressed with the performative nonsense of managers screaming and yelling or the idea that you need the manager to be the dugout hype man in order to inspire players to do better. It probably makes some fans feel better when things are going badly and you're desperate for someone to do something, anything...but when was the last time you felt more inspired at work when your boss chewed your ass out? I'll be curious to see what Shelton does to try and improve the defense and baserunning with the roster, how he manages a bullpen, and whether or not he'll stick to the Rocco-era trick of pulling a guy in the middle innings to try and get the big inning using the platoon advantage then, and risk it going the other way late. (I think that was seriously overused and worked against the team more than it ever helped, by YMMV) I'll be very interested if anyone can get any real intel on how Shelton's staff will be put together and whether he'll be forced to keep anyone he doesn't want, or denied bringing in someone he doesn't. (I'm sure some people will be certain that he's going to be "forced" to keep anyone that carries over form Rocco's staff, but it's not necessarily true and it could very much be completely false. But I think it's going to be very difficult to find out for sure; Twins don't leak on this stuff often)

I mean, it's fair to say that Pittsburgh has been a far bigger mess than the Twins, with fewer assets, worse player development, etc. But it's also reasonable to wonder if Shelton is the right guy to help players reach their potential in MLB, and there's not a lot of evidence from the Pittsburgh time. Is it just because Pittsburgh sucked out loud and gave him nothing to work with until Skenes? I suppose some of this depends on how much responsibility Baldelli and the most recent Twins MLB staff should take for players like Miranda & Julien flaming out, Larnach not developing further, Lee struggling, Festa & Matthews being inconsistent, etc. If you think Rocco & Co are responsible for that falling apart, then you probably think Shelton should have done more for the Pirates? We'll see. He seems ok to me, but the real issue is going to be the roster. I suspect he will have little to no honeymoon from some because a) he was hired by Falvey, b) he's probably not going to start bunting a lot, c) he's still going to use analytics to inform on-field decision-making, and d) will pull starting pitching before the 7th.

The 31 starts and 178 2/3 innings in 2024 suggest otherwise. he might miss a little time through the course of a season, but it's pretty reasonable to expect 25-30 starts from him. It's going to be very interesting to see where Ober lands next season; there's a case to be made that the loss of velocity or the lack of sharpness in commanding his pitches or both are what pulled him down last season and figuring out how to alleviate that is the real issue for him. I was looking at the contrast in his seasons between 2024 and 2025 through the lens of Game Score, and where Ober really fell off this past season was in those high quality starts, anything with a Game Score of 55 or higher, which generally gives you a starting pitching performance that gives your team an excellent chance to win, and probably has the pitcher exiting either tied or with a lead. Ober had 19 of those in 2024, and only 12 in 2025. The poor starts (anything with a Game Score equal to or under 40 remained the same (6 each), and there wasn't much difference in the ones in between either (6 in 2024 and 8 in 2025). Even the truly awful blowups were basically the same (Game Score of under 30 was 4 in 2024 and 3 in 2025) Not getting as many of those high-end starts is what really dragged Ober's season down; he only had 1 with a Game Score over 70 in 2025 (his last start of the year, in fact), while he had 9 of them in 2024. Finding those stellar starts again might require getting back a little of that velocity AND the command to go with a sinker? I'm certainly not ready to give up on Ober, and trying to trade him now would be a classic case of selling low. If they can get the hip right in the offseason it might make a world of difference.

Were they really all that much better? They were 13 games out of first when Shelton was fired, and finished the season 26 games back. They won 6 out of 8 at the end of the season to fluff the record a bit. They did a little better under Don Kelly, but it's not like he transformed them or anything once the yoke of Shelton was removed. I don't think crediting Shelton for the success of a generational talent makes a great deal of sense, but he didn't mess him up. Is it Shelton's fault they only had 1 hitter on the whole team who wasn't below average?

Doubtful. There are so few MLB managerial jobs, and while 4-7 of them open up every year there's a LOT of people who want one, and more than few that will bet one themselves rather than take a pass because it's not perfect enough for them. Plus, once you get in the door, you can add "MLB managerial experience" to the resume. And while the Cheap Pohlads are cheap, the cost of a manager isn't that significant. Or do you really think people interviewing for the job were demanding $4M AAV on a guaranteed 5 year deal?

I think the biggest complaint people are making about Shelton (that he's going to be nothing but a yes-man for Falvey) is one you could make for any hire made by this front office. Since ownership decided to keep Falvey & Co, they were the ones making the hire. You never know about this stuff. Sometimes the guys who flunked out in the first managerial role excel in their next one. Sometimes they flunk it again. At the end of the day, it's going to be more about the roster, the players, and how healthy the team is for how successful Shelton is. He wasn't my first choice, but he's not a disqualifying or embarrassing one. Hope he learned some things in Pittsburgh (what not to do , if nothing else).

Let me be clear: I didn't think it was crazy to take a shot on Outman this year. Next year? That's a different story. Keeping Outman looks like throwing good money after bad. If he sticks on the roster, we're likely to see him hitting poorly, playing little, and wasting a roster spot for months even if (as is likely) one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez is ripping it up, especially if Larnach is still on the roster. There are 5 hitters on the roster that out-performed Larnach last season: Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, Wallner, and Martin. Larnach unfortunately, was closer to Kody Clemens than he was to any of the others (99 OPS+ vs 96). Martin may have only gotten 50 games, but did well, showing real improvement and value in LF, an ability to get on base and do things with his legs (some of them not so great, but it is what it is). Roden still has options, so the Twins could elect to start him back in AAA with all of the other high upside OFs they have piling up there, but picking Outman over any of them at this point seems more like ego than intelligence to me. While I don't dislike Larnach particularly, his limitations (adding nothing defensively or on the bases) added to his seemingly limited upside and increasing cost makes him almost a liability. I'd prefer to start filtering some of the OF talent from AAA sooner rather than later.

Or they simply can't communicate how they were able to do something to players with lesser talent. One of the biggest issues today is the stars have made so much money, they don't need the job or the income. Many of them already have other business interests that are more impactful on their lives. (Torii Hunter might make more off his BBQ empire than he would as a MLB manager)

It's possible for them to drop the payroll all the way down to the $65-70M range, but even for the Cheap Pohlads and their terrible mismanagement of the business aspects of baseball, that seems unlikely. If you take their words (leaked and otherwise) at face value, they were claiming a loss of $30M was pending on a payroll of $142M. Again, if you presume they're being honest about wiping out the team's debt with the addition of limited partners, that should take $12M off the books at a minimum (presuming a favorable 3% interest rate on the $400M in debt). If $112M was the break-even point in 2025 and you're taking $12M of costs off the books, you could assume a payroll in the $120-125M range would be supportable without losing money on an annual basis. (let me be clear: under no circumstances to I think anyone should ever believe a professional sports owner when they make claims about their money unless you have the books in front of you and a forensic account by your side...and even then, you should probably get a second opinion) Now, I'm quite certain that season ticket and ticket package sales are in the dumpster right now and attendance will be substantially lower than last season's poor showing, but even then it should take additional bungling for the team to lose money on a payroll of $110M. It's certainly possible, of course: they've botched the business of baseball even more than the on-field product over the past 30 years. I would guess the floor is somewhere in the $105-110M range, with an upper limit of $125M. But with the Pohlads at the helm, anything is possible. I'd hardly be shocked if they forced a Pablo trade and tried to sell the fanbase that we should be happy they "let" the front office spend back up to $95M. We've come to expect tone-deaf and clueless statements from them for sure.