jmlease1

I'm sure the Twins prefer him at 2B, and I'm aware he didn't play there last season. But I suspect he'd pick up the glove and run out there in a minute if asked, and he'd probably be credible. If Arcia is the backup infielder, it would be interesting to see whether they would have him slide in at 3B if Royce goes down or have Lee do it and move in Arcia at SS? neither is unreasonable, but I suspect it'll depend on how well lee is doing at SS... I'd rather have Martin playing more in LF: he's got the ability to be quite good there defensively and can add on the bases. Larnach can't add anything but hitting. I'd also prefer to make Outman superfluous, but I could see them playing him in LF and DHing Larnach in order to justify keeping him. While I think Outman won't hit once we're past ST...I could be wrong? If he hits, he could add in LF too...I just don't think he'll hit and he'll linger on the roster until June...not hitting.

It'll be interesting to see if they split the RH bats up at the top of the order? I could see them going Keaschall, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Clemens/Outman, and Lee against RHP Again LHP maybe it's Keaschall, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Caratini, and Lee? I think Keaschall gets the first chance at leadoff, and I'm fine with that. Would rather have Buxton lower down where he's more likely to have opportunities with runners on base? Martin is a reasonable choice too, but I think they'll give Keaschall the first bite and they're still likely to give Larnach et al more ABs in the OF to let Martin take the job. It'll be interesting. I'm going to be very interested to see how aggressive this roster is on the bases; they have some guys with speed, but also some real plodders.

I don't think Arcia not playing 3B in ST means much: He can probably slide over there without needing much prep, but Brooks Lee can slide down there if needed, and Clemens can fill in there too if/when Lewis gets hurt. Sure, these are not terribly compelling options, but if lewis doesn't hit at 3B this season we have bigger issues than who back him up. I prefer Arcia to Gray by a lot. Gray looks like a rotten hitter and his defense doesn't impress me much either. Hopefully neither are used much... The Larnach deal still baffles me. He'd better hit, because the roster spot is almost as valuable as the $5M. I hope they're right about Outman. I don't think they are. I would love to be wrong, but I'd rather see Roden or Rodriguez in that spot.

LOL, you're using "losing" Paddack as support for why the rotation will top out at mediocre? I'd much rather have Abel in the rotation than Paddack! But again, the issue isn't what the most likely outcome will be for the rotation, it's whether or not the "at best" outcome will be for them. There are real talents in this rotation that have high upsides.

Clearly, you and I use "at best" differently. It might end up being a mediocre rotation, but if Abel kicks butt and Bradley is quality there's nothing mediocre about it as a unit. Ober didn't have a good season in 2025, but still put up a bWAR of 1.1 and had a Game Score of 50+ in 16 of his 26 starts. That's pretty comparable to most teams 5th best starter. It's still disappointing, and means he'll likely be moving on rather than keep paying him if he can't get it back, but it's not a disaster if guys like Abel & Bradley are able to fill his previous role.

I don't mind the team taking a flyer on vets like Urshela and Chafin to see if they have anything left. I just get worried when their "veteran-ness" gets them extra credit that their performance doesn't merit. Seems like the right decisions here: Chafin didn't have the velo and we have plenty of LHP options for the bullpen. Urshela wasn't hitting, is limited on defense, and is unlikely to find the fountain of youth during the season. If his bat was back, he might have been an interesting replacement for Clemens as a RH hitter, but if he's not hitting, he doesn't fit. I'm a little more surprised that Hendriks didn't stick, but the Twins were clearly looking at more than just his velo in making a call on him, and I'm fine with that. I'd much rather the Twins roll with the younger players at this point, so no complaints in letting these vets go. Maybe they'll catch on elsewhere, but all of them look a bit washed.

I'm not expecting a WS title either, but your projections on the rotation make little sense to me. There may be question marks about the rotation because Bradley & Abel are unproven and Ober's velocity is down, but the upside isn't "mediocre". Ryan, as noted, is an all-star. SWR gets knocked a lot, but is still actually quite young for his experience and has pitched well for the Twins: other teams would have loved to had a guy like him pitching as their 4th starter. Ober isn't a #2 starter any longer if he can't get his velocity back, but as a 4th or 5th starter he can still be additive (with the shortage of competent starting pitching in MLB, the bar for a 4th or 5th starter is lower than most people realize). But Bradley and Abel have very high upside. Both have the talent and the stuff to be playoff caliber starters, and if his control gets to where it was in ST, then Abel has ace written all over him. That puts the ceiling awfully high...not mediocre. Are they going to get there this season? That's less likely: between injuries, inexperience, and just luck expecting a 90th percentile result from everyone is silly. But even the floor for this team's rotation is pretty solid and the best case scenario has Abel looking like a young ace, paired with an experienced all-star in Ryan, with Bradley chewing up innings and being a playoff caliber starter as your 3rd guy. There's still more upside to be found in SWR as well, and while expecting Ober to rediscover his velo at this point may be pie in the sky, if the expectation is for him to eat innings and hold down the 5th spot....he's probably viable even if he mostly repeats 2025. Add in the depth we have in AAA and they actually have the ability to survive even more injuries than we've already suffered. I like the rotation. There's volatility in it with younger pitchers that aren't proven yet...but the upside is quite high. They might flunk out (I personally think there's people around here rooting for that, since the top prospects were picked under the Falvey regime) but they are at least worth watching and have real upside. Very glad Abel is getting his chance: he earned it.

Lot of big talk from the sidelines from someone with no real stake in it. Zoll just got the job he's probably been dreaming about since he got into baseball. If you got your dream job would you immediately tell the CEO/owner to go eff themselves if they didn't also instantly give you a vacation home and a new car? 🙄 Zoll's job is to improve the team, but his primary constituency on whether he's doing it "right" isn't the posters on Twins Daily (some of whom wouldn't give him credit for anything he did well anyways). The idea that subordinates generally get rewarded for telling off their new boss is Hollywood fantasyland. They're much more likely to clean house. But regardless, there's no evidence that Zoll was just a flunky/yes-man to Falvey who slavishly went along with everything Falvey suggested...or even that he's doing the same thing with Tom Pohlad. We barely know anything about what Zoll really is as the head of baseball ops for the Twins.

I'm not happy with the roster either, but there's zero evidence that Zoll has his job because he was nothing but a yes-man for Falvey. The people expecting an immediate and radical shift in strategy and team-building when Falvey left the building (especially considering how late in the game it was) have been out to lunch.

zero evidence for this. your "feel for things" seems to be "I hate Derek Falvey, so I'll make up stuff to denigrate him". Clearly what minimal honeymoon period may have existed for Zoll has ended...

He's hugely talented. If he figures out how to be selectively aggressive in attacking pitches he can handle earlier in the count, rather than trying to wait for the ideal pitch to swing at, then I think he can Be A Guy. He'll be additive on the bases and in the field too, so this isn't an Ed Julien case where you're just hoping the bat plays enough that you have to slot him in somewhere: he's a legit CF and will be an asset in whatever OF spot he slots into. Plenty of arm to play RF, plenty of range to play LF, enough speed and arm to be a good CF. He makes the retention of Larnach look like a poor use of resources. Is he unproven in MLB? Sure is. How does he pass that "test" without actually getting to play? Roster spots have value too, and the twins have not managed theirs well this season. With all the OF depth they have in AAA they should have been looking to move off Larnach for a roster spot and put those resources to the bullpen. Between Rodriguez, Roden, Gonzalez, and Jenkins they have more than enough guys who warrant extended looks in MLB to fill corner OF spots, and moving on from Larnach unblocks a roster spot where you can slide Wallner in at times (and Bell) to give playing time to options with more upside and/or more balance as players. (I'm hardly a Kody Clemens stan, but he's a useful defender at multiple spots and Larnach is increasingly not an option at any spot.) Free Rodriguez!

The positional flexibility helps, but he looks like an auto-out right now. He's got the best glove between him, Arcia, and Gray for sure, but he's also got the worst bat. Unless the twins just don't think Arcia can play SS any longer, I'd think he's the pick over Kreidler, who can't hit his weight.

I hope all of this is right, but I'm currently very skeptical of Houston's bat. The glove is absolutely legit, but he really needs to show some progress at the plate because it's incredibly difficult to be a positive player if you're a zero offensively, even at SS. Maybe Houston's glove is so good that it'll be ok, but it takes a lot to get into Belanger class (and even Bambi had an OPS+ of 90 or better 3 times...which unsurprisingly were 3 of his 5 best seasons). I would love to be wrong. Would have no problems with drafting Justin Lebron at this point. He certainly looks like he could be A Guy.

Quick is a fun prospect and there's a ton to like in him. Can he stay healthy and turn that stuff into production? I'm looking forward to finding out. I suspect the Twins will be a little careful with his workload this season since he's pitched so little overall in his college career, and that might hold him back from winning an award...but that kind of stuff could be really dominant in A-ball even if he still needs refinement in his command & control. Hill did very well in his first season of pro ball, but he definitely has a fair bit to work on. Those walk rates just aren't sustainable for long. If he shows real progress on filling up the strike zone, though, he could crack that top 100. He's got all the things prospect evaluators look for: height, stuff, and he's still very young. Will he make AA at 20? Not with a BB/9 over 5...

Gray looks like a hell no to me. Not much of a hitter, LH bat, which we really don't need, and he's been unimpressive at best in the field. (including making the sort of play that if Brooks Lee had done it you'd have people around here calling for him to be cut) Probably Arcia, if the Twins are comfortable with his defense at SS. Kreidler if they don't think Arcia can hold up at SS as anything more than an emergency guy, because we need to have an actual SS. Kreidler can also play CF in a pinch, which has value, but he might be a zero on offense. I'd be happier with any of them if I knew that Brooks Lee had actually improved his range (not just a "best shape of his life" spring training tale) and was going to be a league average or better hitter this season, but Arcia seems like a fairly reasonable backup who won't be a disaster if he has to start for a few weeks.

There's a lot of starting pitching options and some high upside guys in development. But we really need 1-2 of them to fully transition to MLB this season, because there's an unfortunately high chance Joe Ryan could get dealt. (I hate everything about that statement) The last step in prospect development is the most treacherous one, and lately the Twins have seen a lot of prospects stumble at the gate. Sometimes it's injuries, other times it's not being able to adjust once the league gets a book on you. (sometimes it's both with this star-crossed club!) If a couple guys out of the Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Festa, Morris, Preilipp, Rojas group make that transition with some certainty, then the rotation should be a strength for this team and provide a sturdy foundation to build on even if Ryan gets dealt. But it needs to happen. Of those 7 guys, at least 2 of them need to be in the rotation in 2027 as guys you can count on to take the ball every 5th day and give the team a chance. (better if it's 3 or 4!) It's disaster if we go 0-7.

There's barely a need for a 5 many rotation early in the season. carrying a 6th starter early just makes it more likely the already shaky bullpen struggles more with fewer options. And I haven't seen much evidence that spacing things out more for inexperienced pitchers (I probably should stop calling guys like Bradley and Matthews "young" any longer) will actually improve their long-term prospects. Would 2-3 starts in March/April really tell us all that much more? Seems unlikely. Pick one, let them go for into at least May unless it's just an utter disaster from the jump.

Right now I'd probably go Abel ahead of Matthews, but we're going to see plenty of both this season I'm sure. I'll admit, I'm tantalized by Abel's electric stuff, and if he's managed to mitigate his control problems even a little he could be really fun to watch.

I'm a big fan of GG, but he's rated 7th here. How much higher to you put him? I think people have come around to your way of thinking on Raya, which is why he's fallen all the way down to 15. Do you think he should be off altogether? Who would you replace him with? For me the underrated is Mendez, who didn't miss a beat after the trade and did a great job in AA at 21. Overrated is DeBarge, who might not be as good defensively as people think and has serious questions about his hit tool at this point.

Technically, this is true, but the reality is when you decline to offer arbitration to a player, they are gone. If nothing else, pride gets in the way (as seen by Eddie Rosario and other players across MLB). They'll take less from someone else rather than go back to the club that "didn't believe in them". And frankly, it's exceptionally likely that someone else would have made an offer on Ober that would have been at least at his arbitration number, considering the shortage in starting pitching across the league. As disappointing as Ober was in 2025, there are still plenty of teams that would have killed to have him as their 5th starter.

Shelton or Zoll? GM probably has the final say on the roster.

Declining arbitration on Ober would have been a firing offense for any GM. (I really don't understand the people who give up on players at the first sign of trouble; if you get rid of every player who has a rough season you're not going to have much of a team left...and you're going to see a lot more players have success in other team's uniforms) Ober actually started out 2025 quite well, except for that initial start...which he never should have made. Rocco and Maki blew that one, starting a pitcher who was sick rather than drop down one in the rotation. A dumb decision that threw away a game. Part of the manager & pitching coach's job is protect players from themselves and sit guys when they aren't right, even if they try to do the ol' "trust me, I'm fine!" routine. (I mean, Buxton could have his arm ripped off by a combine harvester and he'd probably say he's good to go the next day.) The mechanics fell apart in June and while he never got all the way back on track...he was figuring out how to survive out there (10 starts in August & Sept and he had Game Scores of 50+ in 6 of them, 60+ in 4) even with less velocity. And it wasn't just against crap teams that had quit on the season: he pitched well against KC twice in that stretch. If the velocity comes most of the way back, Ober should be fine, especially if the changeup is working. Maybe it won't get there and he's going to be just another back of the rotation dude going forward...but those guys still go for $10-12M on the open market. We're paying Ober $5.2M and still have another year of team control.

Not worried about Ryan. He'll be fine. Too early to know on Ober; let's see where he is in his last start before camp breaks on his velocity; if he's averaging 90+mph and touching 92-93 then I think he'll be fine. And even if he's down a bit, it doesn't mean he won't be able to pitch, it just means he'll be more inconsistent and more like a 4-5 starter rather than a #2. Personally, I'm hoping that whatever happens, Bailey Ober kicks ass this season and shoves it in the face of every single person who wants to throw him into the tip. I mean, congratulations to the trolls: y'all know how to get me wound up.

the consistent lower body injuries are a little worrisome; you can't say he's got the perfect body for baseball if he dings up his legs in some fashion every year. Hopefully this latest hammy problem doesn't linger. I'm less concerned about issues with his hitting: this all sounds like normal development and recognition, and he sure seems capable of continual improvement. Perfectly happy for the power to add as he moves along and he matures his game (and body). He just barely turned 21 and he's already in AAA. The biggest concern I have right now is that the Twins will stick with mediocre veterans because they're veterans rather than play the kids; there's greater risk that Walker Jenkins doesn't reach Target Field until late in 2026 because he's blocked by Trevor Larnach et al than him not being ready to test himself against MLB pitching.

Until Houston shows his bat is more useful than a noodle, he's not putting all that much pressure on anyone.